Fantasy Baseball Today - Who is this year's (blank)? Finding the next Robbie Ray & more (1/31 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 31, 2022

What's the idea behind "who is this year's (blank)" (3:00)? ... Who is this year's Vladimir Guerrero, a player going inside the top-60 who will return first round value (5:15)? ... Who is this year's Austin Riley, a hitter going outside the top-200 who will return top-50 value (15:36)? ... Who is this year's Joey Votto, an undervalued veteran going outside the top-250 (24:55)? ... Who is this year's Freddy Peralta, a breakout candidate whose role is uncertain (34:30)? ... Who is this year's Cody Bellinger, a player being drafted in the first two rounds who has bottom-out potential (43:00)? ... Who is this year's Robbie Ray, a pitcher going outside top-200 who has league-winning potential (51:05)?  'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Serafeas is magnificent. Got a fantasy question. Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Monday, January 31st. I am Frank Stanfield, joined by Chris Towers. Unfortunately, no Scott White as he is under the weather. I want to welcome back our YouTube audience as well, as we'll be doing each of our podcast live on the YouTube channel moving forward. Typically between 10 and 10.30 p.m. Eastern Time subscribe. If you haven't already, we've got some fun live mock draft streams coming up as well. We're going to try to do one of those per week in addition to our full-length podcast. Again, live here on the YouTube channel. Chris, how are we doing, man? We got smacked by a little. I was going to say a little Nor'Easter, but that kind of feels, I don't know. that's not like the accurate description?

Like how could there be a little noise? We didn't get hit. We didn't get that hit hard by it. You know, it was bad in Boston. But New York was, we got like eight to ten inches, which was pretty bad,

but I feel like we had a worst storm last year. Did we? Or at least there was more snow last year. It was super windy. Although it's hard to tell. This is something I'm learning, living somewhere that it snows. Is that like,

when you're living somewhere where it rains, you can pretty much tell. Like, I have a good sense of how hard the wind is blowing based on the way the rain is falling. But snow, it's so light that, like, I was looking at my window on Friday night when it was snowing, and I was like, oh, my God, it's like a hurricane.

And then I looked at a tree, and it was, like, barely moving. And it's like, oh, it's just that snow, snow's very light. Yeah, I don't like, that's my meteorological report, that this is my Mike Trow impersonation. Nothing says baseball like a foot of snow on the ground, right, Chris? I could just hear the wind howling outside. right now. So yeah, I mean, it's, there's some snow on the ground. It's cold here in the north-east on Friday night. It's snowing. It was my sister's birthday. I decided to walk home

from my parents in the snow, like, just getting smacked in the face by snowy pellets. And it was a terrible idea. I don't know why I did that. Bad idea. Not great at all. Today, today on the podcast, we're going to have a little fun. We're going to play a little, who is this year's blank. We'll go through a bunch of different categories like, who is this year's Vladimir Guerrero, for example, a mid-round pick who can provide first-round value. for next year. I realize that very likely there is not going to be a this year's Vladimir Guerrero, but these are just some fun categories. And you know, Chris, I've seen some people on Twitter recently kind of making fun of like doing the whole who is this year's

whatever. Obviously we don't necessarily think that it's going to happen, but it's just a fun way, a different way I guess, to find breakouts or overvalued or undervalued players and talk about them. And these things do happen every year. There's always some guy who comes out of relatively nowhere to become a first round type contributor. There's always some first rounder who just inexplicably falls off. I mean, we saw it the last two seasons with Christian Eilogy and Cody Ballinger. We saw it three years ago with Jose Ramirez. These types of things happen. It's very, very hard to predict them because by their nature, we're talking about outliers. A lot of people like Corbyn Burns last year, including me, but I don't think anybody saw him almost winning a

Sy Young. So, you know, that's, it's a, it's a, it's a worthwhile exercise. And I think these types of exercises are always worthwhile because, look, we're not, it's not going to be exactly these guys, but it's about trying to identify types of players who can, you know, exceed their expected outcome. And also, something that I think more fantasy players should think about is the possibility of ranges of outcomes, not just, you know, you look at a projection and it's just one number. But what a projection actually is is an average of a bunch of different outcomes. And so, you know, some years a player is going to have the best year of his career. And some years he's going to have the worst year of his career. And those things are equally likely to happen

in any given year. And so, I mean, barring injuries and all that stuff. But you know, you know what I mean. Statistically, probabilistically. And so I always think it's helpful to think about ranges of outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. I don't know. I think it's a really good point that you bring up. If you go to fan graphs and you look at all the different projection systems, those are medium projections. And I think that's worth mentioning. And also, I guess there's a good time to reveal that. We're going to have Ariel Cohen on on Friday's podcast to talk about his ATC projections and compare them to our rankings. So we can have a little, you know, rankings versus ATC projections there. So that'll come to you. This Friday, we'll have some fun with that. Chris,

you mentioned Corbyn Burns almost winning the National League Sai Young last year. He did win the Sayyang. So, you know, just... Okay, I was trying to remember it. It was like one vote apart, right? It was super close, yeah. But it could have went either way. But yeah. Corbyn Burns, our National League, Saar Young Award winner. And let's start right

there. Who is this year's blank? We're going to start with this year's Vladimir Guerrero slash Corbin Burns, a hitter or pitcher going inside the top 60, who will return first round value? And Chris, why don't you get it started? Yeah, so there were a couple of guys that I thought

about for this. Obviously, if anybody knows me, Byron Buckson and P. And, and, um, Catelle-Marte were two of the first ones that came to mind. Um, I do think they both have first round or second round potential, but I'm going to go with Pete Alonzo, who I wrote about in my breakouts column. And I tend to have a very fluid and broad definition of breakouts because I, I don't just think it's like, oh, well, this player already broke out. He can't break out again. It's always about can a player reach a new level of production. And Pete Alonzo, case, I do think he can because what we've seen over the last three seasons is he came into the league, hit 53 home runs, and he's been a little disappointing since then. But he's improved his

plate discipline quite a bit over the two seasons since that rookie year. And last season, he had a 20% strikeout rate, which if he's able to sustain that, that's the kind of thing that we saw Matt Olson do and make a big leap last season. So I think Pete Alonzo has that kind of potential if he can, you know, sustain that strikeout rate because if you look at the underlying numbers, his expected Wobon contact not that different from his rookie season. His expected Woba last season was actually slightly better than his rookie season, despite the slightly worse overall production. And so I do think that there's a chance that Pinalanzo is able to marry his elite power

with his improved plate discipline and could potentially have, you know, a 280, 40 homer, you know, 240 combined runs and RBI kind of scene. He could have a legitimate four category stud season if he's able to marry both of those things. Yeah, I think kind of like what we saw from Matt Olson in the first half last year, where the batting average was awesome, along with all the power production.

And we already saw Pete Alonzo take that step forward in terms of the contact rate, as you mentioned. So the strikeouts, they were 26% back in 2019, then 25% in the short in 2020, just 20%. last year, and I've mentioned this multiple times. He went on the IL with a right sprained hand in mid-May. He returned on May 31st, and once he returned, 270 batting average, 31 homers in 893 OPS,

over 115 games. That is a 40-homer pace. So I'm with you. I think that, you know, he can hit 270 plus with a ton of power, and hopefully in a better Mets lineup, they signed Starling Marte. They sign a few other people, Eduardo Escobar, Marcana, or hoping for a bounceback from Francisco Lendora as well. So I'm with you.

I'm 100% with you when it comes to Pete Alonso. In fact, I even wrote up Matt Olson in my bus column, but not, he's not someone that I think is going to bottom out or anything. I just think that he's overvalued based on its price relative to Pete Alonzo because I just, I don't think that Pete Alonzo and Mattelson are all that different.

Very similar profiles. And, you know, one thing I want to highlight is, it's not just like, oh, he struck out less, but the underlying plate discipline numbers aren't any. different. You see real changes in his plate discipline. He's gone from swinging at 65% of pitches in the zone in 2020 to 71% this season. And it's not just that he was swinging more often. His chase rate was a little higher than 2020, but actually a little lower than 2019. And so that's what you want to see. More swings on pitches in the zone, fewer swings on pitches out of the zone.

And that's exactly what we're getting from Pete Alonzo. We're seeing more swings on the first pitch, which production for nearly every player in the league is way better on the first pitch if players swing at the first pitch. And so, you know, those are things, the whiff rate way down. And so I just think there's a lot of things going in the right direction for Pete Alonzo, especially because he did not have to sacrifice power for that. Max Exit Velo right where it was before. Average exit Velo actually slightly higher.

Barrel rate just a little bit behind 2019. And so I think you can see a situation maybe like Cody Bellinger in his his MVP season kind of thing. I mean, not as much of an improvement in strikeout rate, but that kind of jump. In the month of January, I'm going to use NFBC ADP today. There's some stuff going on with the Fantasy Pros ADP. We're trying to get that sorted out with our CBS ADP. But Pete Alonzo in the month of January, 54.7 is the ADP.

so you're looking at a fifth round pick and really one of the premier power contributors going in that top five top six round range. For me, inside the top 60 someone who can be this year's Vladimir Guerrero, potentially returning first round value. I was considering Francisco Lindor. I seem to kind of be out on a limb

as like the Francisco Lindor guy this year. And I'm actually, I'm perfectly fine with it. But I'm going to go with Eloy Jimenez, who I wrote up in my Breakouts 1.0 article. and I'm very interested to hear what you have to say, Chris, because I know last year you were off Elo Jimenez. He was going a little bit earlier. He was like a third, fourth round pick.

Now he's kind of dropped down about like two more rounds. He's like consistently going in like that sixth round range in 12 team leagues. And last year is kind of, I kind of feel like we just brushed last year under the rug, right? Like how much do we take away from it? He had a torn peck in spring training. He only played 55 games. He had 249, 10 homers, 740 OPS. Clearly he was not healthy when he returned.

I actually read an article recently about how much his time. was off upon returning. And if you look at everything leading up to 2021, the reasons why people were so excited about Eloy this time last year is because everything was trending towards a breakout. Everything was upward trajectory for a former top prospect who was entering the prime of his career. He had 31 home runs as a rookie back in 2019,

and then he hit 14 in the short in 2020 with an 891 OPS. He hit 296 in that season. He's still just 25 years old. the White Sox lineup, in my opinion, is loaded. If I had to pick a team that was going to be this year's Toronto Blue Jays offense and just kind of all come together and just be miles ahead of everyone else, it's the White Sox. I think the White Sox could just be amazing.

And I actually kind of see some similarities here, Chris, just between Vlad and Eloy being the former top prospects that they were. Eloy hits too many ground balls as well. I don't know if that's something that's going to change. But when he's healthy and he's going right, it doesn't matter because the balls that he's, puts in the air, they're elite. Like, he crushes them. He consistently

has a high home run to flyball ratio. So for all of those reasons, I actually really do like Eloy Jimenez quite a bit. Yeah, the reasons I had an issue with him last season weren't that I thought he was a bad player. It was just, I didn't like the value because I think there's one, I think he was being drafted

as if he was a really good batting average player, and I'm not sure he's going to be that. He certainly can. He actually, he reminds me a lot of Jose Abrae. you know pretty free swinging but makes a decent amount of contact he's not like joey gallo strikeout rates he's not going to walk he's not going to have a good o bp but he makes enough contact it makes enough hard contact that the counting stats should be pretty good the one area where he may lag behind

his other stats is runs he has um only scored 118 runs in 232 games if you put that out over a 150 game pace. That's right around 78 runs, I believe. So that's pretty bad. And now that's not necessarily to say it will be the case moving forward. But yeah, at a lower price, I think Elo is a perfectly fine gamble as a breakout pick. It's, you know, last year he was being drafted as if he had broken out. And that, that was the concern I had. But I don't think that's there anymore. Yeah, the ADP right now is 61.7 in the month of January going just behind George Springer, just behind, really, there's, there's like a two-pick span between 60 and 62, where on average, Byron Bucson, George Springer, Nick Cassiano, Eloy Jimenez are all going right now.

I'm going to assume you have a really interesting range. Yeah, I'm going to assume that you have Bucks in the highest of that group, Chris. But what about Springer versus Castellanos versus Elo? Cassiano's probably won't end up in that range. You know, there's uncertainty about where he's going to sign. I guess if he signs in Miami, it might go down, but otherwise. I think he's going to move up from here. Springer, the only question is health, right?

I mean, we know, like, he's the kind of, the Eloy versus Springer thing is the mystery box versus boat thing. You know, you're kind of hoping that Eloy Jimenez can become the kind of player that George Springer has been for a very long time. And I do think the White Sox offense can be very good, but the Blue Jays comp, the one place I think it falls short is the Blue Jays have a lot of

high OBP guys. And the White Sox do not. The White Sox lineup has a lot of really good hitters, but you're talking about Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Jose Abrae, Elo Jimenez at the top of the lineup. Tim Anderson might have the highest OBP of that group. And he does not walk very much. He just has a high batting average every year. So that's the one play.

It's not going to turn over as much as the Blue Jays did last season. And the counting stats, you know, won't be quite as ridiculous. I mean, Marcus Simeon had like 730 plate appearances last season or something. wild. So I would rather have George Springer, but I think that's a perfectly reasonable range for all of those players

to be going because I think they all have reasons to be a little concerned, but tremendous upside. I would love to have any of Eloy Jimenez, Nick Castionos, George Springer, or especially Byron Buckson on my team. Yeah, it's definitely an interesting group there of

outfielders. The only thing with Springer, you know, I love I love the player and he showed us again last year when he's healthy he's awesome but it's just a matter of him staying healthy he's getting up there in age I think he's like 32 years old now so definitely some concern there

I have it ranked Buxton Springer, Eloy Castellanos actually all in a row in that exact order for myself as well let's move on to the next one that we got up here Chris and it is who is this year's Austin Riley a hitter going outside the top 200 who will return top 50 values So another breakout-ish type candidate doesn't necessarily have to be, you know,

someone who returns first or second round value. But I think Austin Riley finished just inside the top 40 last year. You know, maybe we're looking at a former top prospect, something like that who can get back on track here. Chris, who do you think fits this category? Yeah, this is actually, it's interesting. This was my, the way I wrote my breakouts column was guys going from must start to superstar. So that's your Piedelonzo. And then, you know, just a guy to must start.

you're Austin Riley. You put it in the notes. Joe Adele would be the guy for both of us, but we've talked enough about Joe Adele and why we like him over the last week or so. So tune in to the last few episodes for that. But I'll go with similar-ish situations. One being Joey Bart,

the catcher for the San Francisco Giants, who has continued to hit really well in AAA, but hasn't really shown it in the major league level. But he should be the everyday catcher for the Giants this season with Buster Post. he retiring, and Alec Bome, who I think was way overvalued last season based on what he showed as a rookie. I think the concerns with him as a prospect were he should put the bat on the ball, but

it's not clear how much raw power he has. And last season, he actually showed quite a bit of raw power. His average exit velocity was 92 miles per hour. His expected Wobon contact was 398. His hard hit rate was 49.5%. The problem was 27% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, hits too many balls on the ground. You've heard this story before. This is a very, very popular type of breakout candidate.

This season, he's not. This season, nobody seems to want Alec Bohem. He's going outside of the top 300. We're not sure he has a place to play every day in Philadelphia because his defense is quite bad as well. But assuming they have the NLDH, I think he'll be out there if he can hit. It's the kind of thing where if he hits, he fits. So I think that's kind of the case for both of them. And yeah, I like drafting both of those guys in the later rounds.

The last mock draft that we did, I think I took Joey Bart in like the 22nd round or something like that or the 19th round. I think that's a great value. And I think I've ended up with Alec Boom in one or two spots as well. So like taking a chance. And just to give some kind of kind of. context on Joey Bart. He's played 89 games between double A and AAA, so not a huge sample size. He's got 14 home runs,

and he's hit over 300 in those games. So, you know, this is a catcher who could potentially be a top five fantasy option. So, yeah, like both of those guys, Joey Bart and Alec Bone. Yeah, I like both of those calls as well. And they're going, you know, well outside the top 200 right now. Joey Bart, 273.6 is the ADP. So we're talking, you know, strictly if you play in two-catcher leagues, you know, maybe he, if he breaks out,

he works his way into being starting viable in a one-catcher league, but mostly for a two-catcher league, a rototype format. And then Alec Bohm, the ADP 290.4 right now. So we're talking about the end of your draft, maybe a corner infielder, maybe in a head-ed points league, someone you just stash on your bench to see if he can kind of break back out. We saw him in the shortened 2020.

look really good. He hit 338, and then obviously that cratered last year for the reasons that you mentioned, the strikeouts rose and just too many ground balls. I mean, for someone of his size, I don't know that he's ever going to be a legitimate power hitter.

I mean, there are some underlying numbers that say that there is power in that bad. He would really have to change the launch angle. But even with that, if they just turn into line drives, he should be someone that can help you with batting average. And if he's hitting in the middle of the lineup,

provide some counting stats as well. Yeah, I like both of those calls. As of now, Rossor Resource has Alec Bohm starting at third base for the Philadelphia affiliates. We'll see what they do. I mean, they need to figure out their outfield

because they have Bryce Harper and then Adam Haisley, Mickey Moniac, and if there's a Universal D.H, that would be Matt Veerling. They're going to add at least one person. They've been linked to Michael Conforto, I believe.

They've been linked to a couple of the other, you know, bigger name outfielders as well. Castellanos. I think they've been Nick to, Yeah, Nick Kestianis, that would be fun. Yeah. So, yeah, it's not 100% sure that he's going to play every day.

I think that's part of why his value is really low. But, you know, at that price, what's the risk? Yeah, I'm with you. Even if he's your last round pick, why not? I mean, there's literally no risk there at all. For the Giants with Joey Bart, I've seen some talk that they could use Kirk Casale more because he's a pretty good defensive catcher. According to Stackass, he is 79th percentile on framing, so it's actually pretty good.

But man, if Joey Bart puts in the work in terms of being able to call a game, and he's just like adequate defensively, they're going to give this kid a shot. Because it's, you know, it's been coming for a while now. And they have to see what he could do at the Major League level. So I do like that call quite a bit as a second catcher. For me, this year's Austin Riley. I have Jesus, who I believe you wrote about as well, Chris, did you? He was one of my sleepers, yes.

Okay, yeah, so I do think that there is breakout potential here, specifically in the power department. I don't know that he's going to offer you much else, but Hazu Sanchez, a former top prospect with a bunch of inconsistent seasons in the minors. He got off to a great start at AAA last year and then played 64 games overall with the Marlins hit 251, 14 homers in 808 OPS. That's a 32 homer pace over the course of 150 games. But his time with the Marlins was kind of weird because he, played 24 games and then he went on the COVID IL. He missed about a month of the season right around the All-Star break. Didn't return until mid-August.

But once he did return, final 45 games, that's where he did a lot of his damage. He had 11 homers in 857 OPS, a near 16% barrel rate and started hitting more fly balls and line drives. Which, like we were just saying for Alec Bone, Chris, this is the key for power hitters. And we say it every single year. When talking about Vlad last year, if he can change the launch angle and raise it up a little bit, good things are going to happen. that's what happened for Hazu Sanchez last year when he returned from the COVID-IL. He's someone who typically has had a lot of ground balls

in the minors and in his first stint here in the majors. But then once he came back, he rectified that. And I love Chris, I love the fact that as a left-handed batter, he hit both lefties and righties really well last season. So I swear, this has nothing to do with me having him in the Scott White Dynasty League.

I do watch him very closely. But I'm intrigued. I think, you know, someone who's going around 250 and 80p right now would not surprise me one bit if he hits 260 with like 30 plus home runs yeah I think you know I was already

at the end of last season to fade hisu Sanchez because he was so good at the end of the season that I thought his price would be super inflated and there are flaws in his skill set you know it strikes out way too much doesn't have good plate discipline and hasn't shown consistently

the ability to hit for power in games, but he's someone who has long been a scout darling. You know, he's got really good natural skills. There have always been raves about his swing. And so maybe it just clicked. You know, that that's the kind of thing that can happen with a young talented player, like Hazou Sanchez. And so in that same range, I'd rather have Joe Adele,

but you don't have to pick between them. You could have them both if you want to wait until the, you know, 200 range to take a couple of outfielders. And yeah, I think I like the upside for for Hazer Sanchez as well. All right, yeah. We are getting a few comments here on YouTube. I'll throw one of these up on the screen. And Cola Bear says Luis Arias, breakout potential.

He is in my breakouts one point out. I like that call quite a bit. The problem is he doesn't fit this mold because it's 80P a little bit too high, going around pick 152. But triple eligible Luis Arias and showed a lot of that breakout potential in the second half of the season.

so I do like that quite a bit, and you can find... He's in my breakouts column as well. Yeah, let's do it, Chris. All right, next one. The most interesting thing there, cut his strikeout rate down to 18% from June 1st on. He's not a huge power hitter, but if he's able to put the ball in play,

his swing profile is a lot like Jonathan Indias, and India's a lot more expensive, so I really like Luis Arias as kind of the off-brand Jonathan India. And you can, last year, if you're following the Brewers, They were kind of messing around with him. They didn't play him every single day.

They didn't really commit to him until the final couple months of the season. But if from day one, as of now, he's penciled in the lineup, starting third basement, if that's the case in a pretty good brewer's lineup, could be a lot better if Christian Yellage bounces back, but it's also a great ballpark to hit in.

So I love that call on Luis Arias. Let's move into who is this year's Joey Votto slash Adam Wainwright. This is an undervalued, undervalued oldie. Kind of a tongue twister there. Undervalued oldie. going outside the top 250 in ADP right now. Chris, who you got?

So one, Zach Rankie, who I believe Scott has on his sleepers or breakouts. I'm not sure, but he mentioned him during the starting pitcher preview as someone he's going to draft a lot, has way ahead of his ADP. So I want to talk about Evan Longoria, who is sort of, this is what the Giants do now, right? Like Brandon Crawford had the best season of his career last season. Buster Posey had this massive bounceback. And I mean, you may not have noticed, but Evan Longoria was actually quite good last season. Only 291 plate appearances.

Injuries are an issue. But 261 average 833 OPS and the underlying numbers were just as good. He had a 54.5% hard hit rate, 94 mile per hour average exit velocity. I think if he had qualified, he would have been like top 10 in the league. I haven't. I have it here, Chris. Tide for fourth if he qualified. Yeah, so that's really impressive.

And his underlying stats have actually been pretty good the last few years. And so, you know, maybe the fact that it hasn't actually shown up in games, except for a little bit last year is a concern. But I don't know, I kind of trust the Giants at this point. So Evan LaGore, I mean, you're not going to expect a full season, but you're not drafting him to be a full season starter. And if you just put him in your lineup as a corner infielder when he's healthy, I think he can be a pretty useful option.

Yeah, Longoria right now, the ADP 405. So for those playing in NL only or in these 15 team leagues right now, draft and holds, or if you're doing best ball leagues, and you just need a third baseman later on in the draft, either a second or third, third baseman, just to back up whoever your starter is. I think I've already drafted Longoria in either one or two of these drafts that I've been doing as well.

So he's just going so late, why not take the shot? The fact that the Giants have done... Great draft and hold option. Yeah, the Giants have done a great job with these really just, all their players recently, Chris, not just reclamation pitchers, but they've done a great job with hitters recently, getting these guys back on track. Their analytics department has done fantastic.

So for whatever reason, their offense has been performing really well. I mean, look at Brandon Crawford last year as well. So I do like that call on Evan Longoria. Is there anything else you wanted to add on Zach Rankie? Because I know Scott likes him quite a bit. I kind of wish Scott was here to talk more about him. It could just be one of those things where you're just saying, look, he's Zach Rankie.

He has to get back on track. But obviously, he fits this. category, he is an oldie, and the strikeout stuff just completely fell off last year, Chris. Swinging strike rate, K-per-9, just way, way, way down from where we've seen him in years past. I don't know if there's any specific reason for this, but two soft tossers in Granky and Kyle Hendrix just absolutely got destroyed last year. So I would have to look more into it to find out what happened, but I thought it was interesting that those two pitchers are kind of similar and they both had really bad years. Yeah, part of it is just that we've, we've,

done this story with Zach Ranky before. Remember 2016, he dropped down to a 437 ERA, a 20.1% strikeout rate next season. He comes out 27% strikeout rate 3.2 ERA. So, you know, it's, it's a little like Joe Evato where I just think Zach Rankie's such a smart player that he's going to figure some way to be better than he was last season. I think that's part of it. And just he's so cheap, why not? You know, like, this is a guy with a strong track record who has been counted out before and has come back from

the apparent fantasy dead before. So, you know, outside of the top 200, there's no risk there. Yeah, I probably have to move them up a little bit. Scott has them at SP 50. You have him at 51. I have them all the way down at 77. So I might have to do a little...

I mean, you're probably closer to consensus than we are. Probably, yeah. I mean, the ADP for Granky right now is 332.5. So again, really late in your drafts. He hasn't signed anywhere yet. That's probably something that's causing his ADP to stay as low as it is. But, I mean, I guess there's a chance that he retires.

I haven't heard anything about it. I think if he was going to retire, he probably would have already. So, yeah. I think Zach Crenky pitches again. We've got to see, obviously, where he winds up. For me, who is this year's Joey Votto slash Adam Wainwright?

I have Carlos Carrasco. And it was just a mess of a season for Carlos Carrasco last year, torn hamstring kept him out until July 30th, and then he was just awful once he returned. 6.04 ERA, 1.43 whip, just around 8Ks per 9, 12.4% swinging strike rate,

both of those numbers his lowest since 2013. And then once the season ended, he had a bone fragment removed from his right elbow. So there's a very real chance that he was pitching through that. If you remember, all of last year, while we were waiting for him to come back from the hamstring,

there was no update. There was never any update. We always kind of felt like there was something else going on with Carlos Carrasco. And I think it was probably related to that elbow. I think it was sometime in February or March. He got shut down originally with that elbow. And then when he started to ramp up, he tore his hamstring. And that's why he was out for so long.

So I think it was just a combination of all of these factors. There's really nothing in the underlying numbers, Chris, that say that he's going to be better this year. I looked at the velocity was fine. His pitch mix through the slider and the curve, a decent amount less than he usually does. that could have been related to the elbow injury that he was dealing with. Turning 35 years old in March, the ADP just outside the top 300.

For me, this is just taking a chance, a leap of faith on a pitcher that has been really good for a long time, just bouncing back, honestly. Yep. I think that makes perfect sense. The other play I wanted to highlight here too is Charlie Blackman. And you look at his expected stats last year,

I'll pull him up, but he underperformed them quite a bit. and I know he was underwhelming. There was nothing exciting in his stat line from last year. The power was way down. He hit way more ground balls than he ever does.

And he was not good at Corse Field. It was kind of this weird thing. Brennan Rogers was not good at Corse Field. Trevor Story wasn't as great at Corse Field last year compared to years past. Same thing with Charlie Blackman. And yeah, I would assume

that he's just going to be better in Cors and if he lowers that ground ball rate closer to where he's been in years past, then I think we see the power bounce back a little bit. bit. I'm not expecting, you know, prime Charlie Blackman. Can we get 20 plus home runs with a 280 plus batting average? If we get that at his current ADP, which is like 2.30, 240, then I still think he's a valuable player. He hit two. No, I mean, the thing with Charlie Blackman is he's always overperformed

his expected stats, which is what you would expect, because he plays a course field, and he plays in the thin air, and he plays in this great park. So last year, he underperformed his expected stats. his expected Wobo was actually higher than 2020. It was not far off from 2018. He was at 359. He was actually higher than 2018. So this was the second best of his last four seasons. You know, I think it's unlikely that he's a must-star fantasy player.

But if any 36-year-old is going to do it, I'll bet on a guy in course field who had the underlying stats to suggest it last season. Yeah, the ADP for Charlie Blackman. 233. So if you play in those five outfielder leagues, you can get him as your fourth, maybe even sometimes your fifth outfieler, the last one starting. And the underlying, the expected BA,

he had 270, that was 289, the expected batting average. His slug was 411, expected slug was 454. So I do like the chances of a bounce back here for Charlie Blackman going very, very late. We're going to take a quick break, but before we do that, I want to remind you, we will

have another live mock draft stream this Tuesday night, this time, a 12 head-to-head categories league. Not exactly sure what time yet. I think we're looking at about 8 o'clock Eastern time. But once we know that, I'll announce it on tomorrow's podcast and let you know. But yeah, I know a lot of people have been asking

for head-to-head categories content. So we're gonna do that mock draft on Tuesday night. So you can come hang out. I believe Chris you're gonna be there with us. And hopefully another guest will have some fun. And if you haven't yet, subscribe and turn that notification bell on to our YouTube channel. So you get notified every time we go live here.

on the channel when we return. Who is this year's Freddie Peralta? We'll talk about it next here on Fantasy Baseball today. All right, so let's get back into it. And who is this year's Freddie Peralto? What does that mean? A pitcher whose role we're unsure of, but has breakout potentially.

If you remember, Freddie Peralta this time last year, we didn't know if he was going to be in the bullpen, if he was going to be a starter for the Milwaukee Brewers. But we knew that he had good stuff. Lots of strikeouts. You know, whip kind of questionable, control kind of questionable. But ultimately gets an opportunity to start for the brewers

for the majority of the season and was fantastic. So Chris, who is a pitcher that fits that mold right now? So one special shout out to Waskeri Noah and Den Ielson-Lemette. Two guys that I considered for this one. I could also throw in Chris Paddock if you're looking for some bounce-back candidates. Not sure if any of them have starting roles, but we've seen very good things from every single one of those guys within the past few years. But I'm going to go with Trista McKenzie, who I'm pleased with,

how he pitched last season, even though the results weren't particularly good, 494 ERA. But what I liked seeing was that his average fastball velocity was 92 miles per hour. Now, for a right-handed pitcher in 2021, that's well below average. But Tristan McKenzie had some pretty concerning trends in 2020 as far as retaining his fastball velocity. So the fact that he was able to average 92, I think it's a pretty good sign. The fact that he didn't get hurt, which has been an issue for.

for him throughout his career is a good sign. And, you know, he threw his fastball too much last season. 61.6% of the time that's not going to cut it. His fastball is not that good. He doesn't, you know, he doesn't necessarily do the things that you want out of a fastball. He doesn't have the command of it that you want. But, you know, his secondary pitches have all looked quite good throughout his time in the majors. His slider and curveball both had a 44% whiff rate last season.

The slider was 44% Curveball was 34% in 2020 His change-up has flashed at times He's gotten pretty good results With the slider and curveball especially So I just think there's the makings of a good pitcher here There's obviously talent And he's still pretty raw

He's thrown very little over the past four seasons Because of the injuries And so I you know we The Indians or the Guardians, excuse me one of those teams that we give a lot of credit to for getting the most out of their pitchers. Why can't Tristan McKenzie be the next one? I know maybe our faith is a little shaken after the Zacc-Plexak travesty of last season,

but I don't know. I still think there's reason to be hopeful for Tristan McKenzie. I am with you 1,000 percent, Chris. He was in my breakouts 1.0. He's the last pitcher that I wrote about in that column. I wanted to choose someone that was going a little bit later, and that is the case for Tristan McKenzie in the month of. January. He is going pick 235.1. So very late in your drafts and I'm with you. I mean, just the fact that Cleveland

has a good track record of getting the most out of their pitchers and really with McKenzie, someone who is a former top prospect in their organization. You look at his first 10 starts last year. He averaged over eight walks per nine and that was with his velocity being down, 91.4 miles per hour. His final 14 starts, that normalized. 2.2 walks per nine during that stretch. The velocity back up. 2.7 miles per hour on the fastball during that stretch. There were some hiccups late final three or four starts but he had a 10 start stretch

from July to September 2.96 ERA 0.73 whip 12.9% swinging strike rate and if you check out my breakouts 1.0 I put a link in there to a video and it's really a game recap where

McKenzie apologizes to show Hey Otani for making him look too bad and it was like these two 12-6, like spiked curveballs where Otani did not have a chance. We're talking about the American League MVP. The stuff is there for McKenzie. I worry about durability, obviously.

Like, he's just so thin. What's a realistic expectation for endings? 140, 150, maybe, hopefully. But if he's clicking, he's really, really good. If you look at, since the start of 2020, he has a 199 batting average against. That just speaks for itself. Yes, he gives up a lot of fly balls,

but his stuff is nasty. So I absolutely love the call on Tristan McKenzie there. Someone who I just drafted. I'm in a 12-team draft and hold right now. Round 20. I just took Tristan McKenzie as my fifth starting pitcher. Totally cool with it. Probably would rather have him as like a six or a seven,

but it's cool. For me, who is this year's Freddie Paltza? I was, I think all three of these are fine candidates. Michael Kopeck with the White Sox, Aaron Ashby, who's getting a lot of hype with the Milwaukee Brewers and rightfully. and then Tanner Hauk. That's the one that I'm going to go with here

from the Boston Red Sox. Last year, he posted a 3.52 ERA, a 1.13 whip, 87 strikeouts, an 11.4K per 9. If you combine his majors, his minors, his postseason endings, he got up to 101.1.1. So I think, you know,

if you're projecting that forward, you know, 120, 130, I think that can be a realistic expectation for Halk this year. And he's just, he's good. The slider is filthy. I think it's already one of the best in the game. 16.2% swinging strike rate on that pitch last year.

A 159 batting average against. You watch him pitch, Chris, and Tanner Howe looks exactly like Chris Sale. And he has Chris Sale in the rotation with him to learn from. Who is better for this guy to learn from if not Chris Sale? And he's right there. It's like whatever he needs, he can learn from Chris Sale.

The issue here is we don't really know what the role is going to be to start the year. They currently have six pitchers projected in the rotation, according to Rosser Resource, Sale, Nathan Avaldi, Nick Povetta, Rich Hill, Michael Waka, and then Tanner Hauk, with James Paxton returning from Tommy John surgery at some point as well. So, you know, is he... There's going to be opportunity there for him if he pitch as well. Rich Hill.

That's just... It's Rich Hill. That rotation has a ton of question marks. They should be really good, but if Tanner Hauk's pitching well, he's going to be in the rotation. I'm pretty sure of it. Yeah. What do you think about it? The problem is,

go ahead. You're probably not, he's probably going to average five innings per start. You know, that's the thing is that I just, I don't know he's going to go through the lineup more than twice. And so there's going to be a limit on wins innings and strikeout as a result of that. But I think it can be really good on a per inning basis.

And in a roto league, especially, you know, less so in a points. But in a roto league, I think he could be very useful. 100%. Like in a points league,

you have to devalue all these guys. I think him, Kopec Ashby, you could see the same thing for each of them. Could get awesome ratios, lots of strikeouts, but we just don't know how much they're going to pitch overall. Yeah, I will say with Kopec, especially, if he gets the chance to start, if he gets the chance to be in the rotation,

I mean, he looked overwhelming last season. He only had a 3-5 ERA, but 1-13 whip, 103 strikeouts and 69 and third innings, 36% strikeout rate, only an 8.4% walk rate. That'll work if he can do it in the rotation. 257 expected Woba against. That was in the top 10% in the league. 276 expected ERA.

I think he still has absolute ace potential and we saw it in action last season. He generates a lot of weak contact, a lot of pop-ups. So, yeah, Michael Kopeck, if he's in the rotation, I think he's going to be very good. Yeah, the problem is he's getting a little bit of hype right now,

the ADP up to 175. So it's not, prohibitive to draft him, but he's climbing slowly. So I agree. Look, the stuff is absolutely filthy with Kopeck. The ADP for Tanner Howk is right around 200. And then for Aaron Ashby, who Aaron Ashby, you watch the slider from the left-hand side, it's nasty. And it's a lot like Cleveland where you just trust Milwaukee at this point. What they've done in developing their pitchers, Corbyn Burns, Brandon Woodrow, Freddie Peralta, you just, it's kind of just blind faith. You just trust whatever they do. Ashby going the lowest of those guys, 268.9.

I would say there's more uncertainty with his role than anyone else that we've talked about so far. So that's probably why he's going later than some of these other players that we mentioned. Let's move on to the next one here, Chris. And we have who is this year's Cody Bellinger? So a bit of a negative one. A player going in the first two rounds who has bottom out potential. Who you got? I think the right answer is Jacob de Grom.

He's currently, I guess, just going inside of the top two rounds, right? His ADP is, he's the 24th player off the board right now on average. And look, I think he's the best pitcher in baseball. I think if he's healthy, he's going to be the best pitcher in baseball. But given the amount of elbow and forearm issues that he had last season, including ligament damage or concern about ligament damage, at least, it just feels like it's a ticking time bomb.

And maybe that bomb never goes off. You know, remember Masahir Tanaka. It seemed like he pitched like six years after, uh, what, having a torn, partially torn UCL, right? And so sometimes that bomb never goes off. We'll see if it doesn't for Jacob de Grom, and I think he's worth the risk in the second round. But if you're talking about the player who has the potential to absolutely bottom out,

Jacob de Grom could be Justin Verlander in 2020. He can make one start or 2019. You can make one start blow out his elbow and he's done. So that's a concern. But I will also throw out. nobody wants to hear it so I'm going to whisper but show hey O'Donnie

what was that Chris Joe O'Donnie oh okay he is the most fun player in baseball I hope nothing bad ever happens to him I hope he lives a long and healthy life he's a pitcher

who is also a hitter pitchers have a lot of injury risk hitters have their own version of injury risk even as a DH DHS can get hurt he's playing a lot of baseball. He's doing a lot of different things. There are a lot of opportunities for Shoah Otani to get hurt. And as we've seen, if he blows out his elbow, he could still hit

and still be quite good. We saw that in his rookie season. But there's the chance that he messes up his shoulder running the basis. I can't do either. There's a chance that he messes up his knee. You know, it's just there's compounded injury risk for him more so than any other player just because of the nature of the way he's used. And that's always going to leave an especially high injury risk for him. So that's the concern. It's, I hope nothing happens. I hope he fulfills his full potential every single season

because there's no player in baseball who I like watching more than Shohia Tani. But we have to acknowledge the risk when you're talking about your fantasy teams. I see people tweeting responding to our video. Justin Mason from The Sleeper in the Bus podcast asked, Who is this year's Justin Mason? I don't know. I might have to take some time to think about that. We'll see.

But Justin Mason, we had him on earlier in the offseason, and great guest, and he was someone who was all over Cedric Mullins last year before he broke out. So obviously I asked him, who is this year's Cedric Mullins? And I believe at the time he gave me Cole Tucker from the Pittsburgh Pirates. So someone who is going super, super late. I threw out like Lane Thomas and Connor Joe. Those were a few picks I mentioned last week on. our sleepers breakouts and busts 1.0.

But that's why I didn't include Cedric Mullins in this conversation because we talked about that a few times already this off-season. I just want to say for what it's worth in this whole conversation that we're doing in this episode, identity theft is a crime.

Okay. By the way, Chris, your answers are 1,000% right. Like, it is DeGrom and it's Shohei Otani. Unfortunately, the game is so much better with both of those players, so I am hoping that nothing bad happens to them. We're talking like two inner-circerns. Hall of Famers, if they're healthy.

Like two of the best to ever do it. And so I want to say again and again and again, I hope nothing bad happens to either of them. But, yeah, if we're talking about, and DeGrom, obviously, there's a ton of talk about the risk with him, but Shoaheotani, I've seen very little discussion because of how good he was last season.

But I think he's arguably the riskiest player in the early rounds. Yeah, I think that's fair for the reasons that you mentioned. And there's also this added, like, he's a util only player. So I'll save that discussion for another day, but I've already done deeper league drafts where I have passed on Otani in the middle of the first round because it's just so hard to fell out the rest of your roster. You have all these needs in a deeper league where, you know, you just have someone sitting

in your utility spot all year. He should be amazing when he plays, but it's just kind of a very unique situation. The nice thing is something that Scott mentioned, I think, in one of the episodes last week, there aren't that many utility-only players this year. You know, the guys that we typically consider utility-only, Stanton, J.D. Martinez, Yardin Alvarez. Yardin-Avarez, they all have outfield eligibility.

Correct. So it's really like Otani and Cruz are the biggest ones. So, you know, that's less of a concern this year. But still, yeah, it limits you. you? Yep, for sure. Otani Cruz, the other one I believe in the top 150 is Fran Mill Reyes. So the big three Utah only bats this year. Who is this year's Cody Bellinger? I mentioned, I think you're right, Chris. The only other one I was considering. And some people might call me a hypocrite for this one because I've already gone on record. And I love this player. I think that

there's more of a chance that we're drafting this guy in the top five picks next year than he he just completely bottoms out. But we're talking about range of outcomes, Chris. And I've got to I've got to talk about Luis Robert because as great as he was last year, he played 68 18 homers, a 946 OPS, lowered the strikeout rate tremendously from the short in 2020 season. 32% in 2020, 20.6% last year. However, the swinging strike rate was still 16%. So there is a legitimate chance that the strikeouts, they go back in the other direction a little bit. Maybe he's a 24, 25% strikeout rate guy, but he's going to impact the ball so hard that I still think that he can be a batting average contributor. The reason I bring him up as a bottom out potential,

Chris, because it is within the range of outcomes that he just does what he did again in 2020. Because we now have these two around 60, 70 game samples where one, he was really, really good, and one where he was good, but like he also struck out a lot in 2020. So I just want to bring up that as a possibility for Luis. Robert. Yeah, and the other thing that I would bring up is it's not necessarily clear how much of a stolen base guy he's going to be. You know, there were thoughts that he could be 30-30 coming out of the minors. The White Sox haven't really used their guys like that, and I'm not sure it's going to happen for him.

But, you know, right now, so far in his major of the career, he's been around a 20 stolen base piece. Last season, I know he had injuries. It was a hip injury last year, right? Yep. So that's obviously a pretty good excuse, but he only had six stolen bases. in 296 plate appearances last season. So there are, you know, he could end up being a 25 homer 15 stolen base guy,

which is really, really good. But, you know, it might be, I'm trying to think of like a, I don't want to reference Byron Buxton again. He could be like Randy a Rosarine. I was going to say Kyle Tucker, like what Kyle Tucker did last year, 30 homers, 14 steals.

Yeah, I mean, but, you know, if he hits 294, then it doesn't match. matter and gets the RBI and runs that you would expect from that. But yeah, there's definite potential for, he's a volatile profile, I think is the best way to put it. It's just that this type of player, because of his play discipline, he could take a big step back or he could fluctuate a lot from year to year. Yeah.

Look, it's no surprise at this point. I like the White Sox, man. I do like Luis Robert. I do like Eloy Jimenez quite a bit. And with that, take it away, Hawk. Mercy! All right. Let's get to our final one here and the poster child on our YouTube thumbnail today.

Who is this year's Robbie Ray, a pitcher going outside the top 200 who has Cy Young upside. And with that, league winning upside. Chris, who you got here? So the two that I've gone with were Denelson LeMet and Chris Panic. One thing I've been struggling with in doing, you know, the sleepers breakouts and busts, which are really the first big pieces after the rankings that I've been doing. and those are the ones where you're looking at ADP to find values good or bad. Pitching is, it's hard to find especially good or especially bad values at pitching these days.

I think there are still, you know, because there's just like differences of opinion in hitting, there's still some guys there, but I don't know, it just seems like we're really sharp as an industry at pitchers right now. And so it's hard to find an obvious guy. I think Tristan McKenzie could be that guy. I think, you know, if Chris Paddock or Denelson-Met fixed their issues, they could be that guy. I think, um, who's, you know, Tristan McKenzie, who we talked about earlier. I, you know, Noah Cindergards technically outside of the top 200.

If he rediscovers his early form. Um, so, you know, there's, there's guys. But it's, it's a lot harder to find late, late round guys that I really, really like than it used to be. You know, for me, Chris, I'm finding a lot of guys in that range that I like, you know, 180 on, 200 plus,

that I like. The problem for me is finding a way to differentiate them in the rankings. Because in every draft that I've done, I'll see five or six guys in a row that I really like. It'll be Tristan McKenzie,

the player I'm going to talk about next, Patrick Sandoval. It can be a bunch of the Giants guys, Alex Wood, Anthony Descofani, Alex Cobb, a bunch of these players. The thing is, I don't know how to differentiate them. I like all of them.

So what do I do? Just draft all of them? I mean, at that point, you're drafting too many. And that's what we're kind of working through at this point in the offseason is like, okay, how do we differentiate these pitchers and who's better than the rest of them? But that's the issue that I've come across myself is that I really like a lot of these pitchers. I just don't know which one I like most. Can I add one more name to that list?

Sure. Edward Cabrera, who kind of has the opposite issue of a lot of the guys that we talk about, especially young pitchers, he probably didn't throw his fastball enough. And I'm not sure his fastball command is good enough. He got crushed with his fastball last season. And he has trouble throwing it in the zone. His command of his fastball. It is his worst pitch, arguably.

His slider and his change-up are actually really, really good pitches, which is the opposite of what we're usually used to seeing with young starting pitch. The thing is, it's really weird to see a guy throw 97 to 99 miles per hour, have his fastball be his biggest weakness. And so if he's able to command it a little better, get it up in the zone for whiffs, get it up in the zone for weak contact, and then have the change-up and slider as his put-away pitches, as much as we've liked Six-O Sanchez over the last few years before the injuries,

there were a lot of people in baseball, a lot of scouts, a lot of prospect people who said Edward Cabrera is a better pitcher than Sixto Sanchez. So he is outside of the top 500. No, just inside. 499.15 since the start of January is Edward Cabrera's ADP right now in NFC drafts. So absolutely free.

Literally zero cost may not get drafted in a 12-team 15-team Roto League. So, yeah, I like Edward Cabrera, a lot, obviously. And he is a Miami Marlin. Let's just go with all the Marlins, Chris. Can I have permission to hop on the bandwagon before it takes off here? I mean, I think they're probably the worst or second worst team in the NLEs, so I'm not sure you need my permission to jump on.

I don't think I have the, I don't think I have the permission to allow you or not. Oh, I thought you were the conductor of just everything Marlins related. You are just, you're the guy. No, I'm, I'm, my, My Marlins fandom, I don't know if you know this about me, my own Marlins fandom is mostly tied into masochism at this point. Oh, you mean like my favorite football and basketball teams?

The Jets and the Knicks. So yeah, I know a lot about that. All right, so this year's Robbie Ray for me. It is Patrick Sandoval, as I mentioned. He is also in my breakouts 1.0 piece. You could go read about it. But I'll tell you about it right now. He was inserted into the Angels rotation on May 17th.

He made 14 starts. During that time, a 3.39 ERA, 1.18 whip. 86 strikeouts over 79 and 2 thirds. Endings pitched. 15.3% swinging strike rate in those 14 starts was second in baseball behind only Corbyn Burns. So there's no issues getting whiffs here for Sandoval. The changeup, filthy.

It is a nasty changeup from the left hand side, 139 batting average against, with a 28.7% swinging strike rate. Now keep this in mind. Jacob de Grom led base. baseball last year with like a 22% swinging strike rate overall. I think league average is around 11%. 28.7% swinging strike rate on the changeup for Patrick Sandoval. It is just a completely dominant pitch. He has a really good slider as well. The issue he struggles with the fastball,

of it, it can get hit hard, and you look at the walks. I mean, he struggled with walks in his career. He's always been able to generate whiffs. Now I think it's just a matter of him, A, staying healthy. he dealt with a stress fracture in his back last year, which shut him down, and the fastball command. If he works on those two things and they come together with the changeup and the slider, I mean, Chris, we are looking at a true, true breakout potential starting pitcher, someone that can, you know, be a top 20 starting pitcher by years end. It would not surprise me. Yeah, and, you know, I think one positive sign there is that his changeup usage jumped from

22.9% to 29.6% from 2020 to 2021. So that's just an example of how much more confident he seems to be in it. And he introduced the sinker, which his fastballs collectively performed better than they did in 2020. I wonder if that's just neither the sinker nor the four seamer are particularly good, but maybe it's just enough of a different look, you know, the sinker down, the four seamer up, that it makes them a little less predictable and makes that pitch a little harder to hit. So, you know, I think there are definitely reasons to be optimistic. about Patrick's handball for sure.

The last player I'll mention here, Chris, I ask for permission. I mean it, man. I want to be on the Marlins bandwagon. We know I love Sandy. I've already drafted two shares of Pablo Lopez. That's my guy. I just need him to stay healthy.

Jesus Lazzardo, I'm not giving up, man. Last year was a weird season for him. He broke his hand, like slamming a desk because he got crushed in Fortnite or something like that. So it was a weird season for him. He got traded from the A's to the Marlins, former top prospect. We all know the deal with Jesus Lazzardo.

and over his final three starts last year, super small sample size, he started throwing his breaking ball. I don't know if it's a curve or a slider because it categorized it differently on different websites. So I'll just go with breaking ball. But he used it 40% over 40% his final three starts. And in that last start, 11 strikeouts, the zero walks, a ton of whiffs during that stretch as well. I just, I still think it's there, Chris.

I mean, he throws hard with the fastball, mid-90s from the left-hand side. He's got the slider, he's got the change-up, he's got, two strong secondary offerings. Like the control was really bad for him last year that hasn't really been an issue for him in the past. I just think it was a weird season. And for where he's going right now, 291.5, I already have a share of him

and I'm much likely to get more of it. Yeah, his fastballs have been a disaster. That's the problem. Is that he just, he can't get whiffs with them. They get hit hard. He hasn't had good command of them. But I guess that's the easier thing to fix. I mean, you know,

It's kind of what we were talking about with Patrick Sandoval, where, you know, if the fastball just gets a little better, you know, the curveball and changeup are good enough. And, you know, particularly the curveball that it could be enough. You know, it's a tough needle to threat, but pitching is hard. You know, like, there's no such thing as a pitching prospect that goes both ways. It's not just the pitching prospects get hurt all the time or don't develop the way. you think guys come out of nowhere, guys fluctuate a lot. It's a really difficult skill. But I could see Jesus Lazzardo having like a Carlos Rodon type of breakout,

you know, what Carlos Rodon did last season. Yeah, it reminds me a lot. You mentioned Carlos Rodon. How would his teammate, Lucas G. Alito, right? Former top prospect in the game completely fell off. He was written off. We had no reason to expect anything from Lucas Gialito. That's kind of where we are with Hazis Lazzardo right now as well.

So I understand the fastball has been bad. you're right Chris. I just think trusting the secondary stuff and hopefully the fastball gets back on track. There's actually this article that I pulled up from fish stripes.com. I know they have all these different SB Nation team websites,

but the subject line here is Hazardo eyeing 2022 breakout with improved fastball command. So it's something that he's cognizant of and he's clearly working on in the offseason. I'm not giving up on the guy yet. You know, we talked about the Giants and their track record with hitters especially.

but also with pitchers, we've talked about the Indians. The Marlins are kind of getting to that point where you should have a lot of faith in their ability to develop hard, you know, young pitchers. They especially, there's kind of, I don't know if it's a specific pitching coach or pitching development coordinator or whatever, but they have a specific change-up

that a lot of the guys seem to throw. It's a harder change-up that doesn't move as much. And so, you know, maybe we'll see some shifts in Hazers-Lisardo's, but change-up looks or usage, and maybe that'll help unlock something with the Marlins. I think you have earned some of the benefit of the doubt. Hazel-Zol-Sarto should be cheap in drafts. I'm not saying he's someone who you should draft very high,

but he's someone you should be looking at, for sure. Right there with you. So don't give up yet on Hazzoz-Lazardo. And again, my pick for this here is Robbie Ray, is Patrick Sandoval. We're going to wrap there. We're not going to get to your email questions today. I apologize, but we will try to get to them on tomorrow's podcast.

Plus, we have a mailbag coming up later this week. So keep those coming in. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. That's the letter I. Or you can leave a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts, and you can drop your question in the review. We'll pull some from those there as well. For Chris, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today.

We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.