Fantasy Baseball Today - Will These 2023 Breakouts Repeat? Marcus Stroman to the Yankees! (1/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 12, 2024

Before we get into the breakouts, Marcus Stroman is signing with the Yankees (3:45)! ... Michael Busch was traded to the Chicago Cubs and has finally been set free (7:55)! ... Will these breakouts repeat, starting with Josh Lowe (15:55). ... Is Yainer Diaz worth the cost (24:35)? ... Are we all in on Kodai Senga (30:37)? ... Was the Lane Thomas breakout for real (37:38)? ... What about TJ Friedl (42:50)? ... And what about Chas McCormick (49:40)?? ... Should Justin Steele be ranked higher (55:18)? ... Where's the love for Tanner Bibee (1:00:28)? To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

And welcome in Tough Fantasy Baseball today on January 12th. Frank Scott and Chris here to take a closer look at 2023 breakouts and discuss whether or not they will repeat in 2024. Also, we have some smaller moves to discuss Marcus Schroman to the Yankees and Michael Bush. That's right. Yeah. That much. No small move, baby. No small move. Was traded over to the Chicago Cubs. You know, I love with the Kokomel Friday intro that. the further we get from Connor Joe having a job.

I was going to say. I was just saying we need to like, we need to update it. I love it. I love it. How many years are you going to be no, like, is the Kokomo theme song going to declare your love for Connor Joe? Who in a few years, the listeners won't even know who he is probably because he was such a blip on the,

on the, uh, on the, the, the, the, the fantasy landscape. But the OGs, they'll remember, Scott. They'll know about the old Connor Joe. Let's talk about some of these moves first and foremost. And we are going to start with Marcus Stroman, who signed with the Yankees. We've heard some chatter over the past couple days that this was close to happening. And the terms of the deal, two years, $37 million with a vesting option for the third year. We pretty much know who Marcus Stroman is at this point in 2023, a 399.

ERA, 126 whip. Below a strikeout per inning still gets a ton of ground balls, 57% ground ball rate. And one thing I guess that's popped up the past two years has been limited to under 140 innings pitched each of the past two seasons. Last year it was hip inflammation. The year before, it was right shoulder inflammation.

But Chris, we'll start with you. When Stroman pitches, you know what you're going to get. Solid ratios, less than a strikeout per inning. probably more of like a back-end fantasy starter, borderline streamer, I guess you could say. Yeah, he's fine to have around when things are going. He's easy to cast off when things are not going well. I don't think he's a particularly complicated player to figure out. But look, that ERA generally ends up in the 3-2 to 3-9 range at the end of the season.

At least it has, you know, the last three seasons or so for him. four seasons actually going back to 2019 he didn't pitch in 2020 but he's been between 395 and 322 in four straight seasons he's fine i i don't think he's someone that you should ever be excited to draft but he's unlikely to be harmed too badly by yankee stadium don't there's this like oh he has a six something er a at yankee stadium the the yankees aren't going to lend a Judge to the other team. And Aaron Judge has something like an 800 slugging percentage against him.

So I don't care about that. He's a perfectly cromulent back end starter. Yeah, I mean, the Yankees, he's like a good fit for them because they do have that Homer-friendly park, especially if the opposing lineup

is loaded against lefties against a right-handed pitcher like Stroman. But Stroman is really good at getting ground balls. So I don't, I think he's a good fit for the Yankees in the respect that Yankee Stadium will not really hurt him. But I don't think there's much to get excited about here either. If you're just assessing pitchers on ERA, Stroman is pretty good, decent. But, you know, he's a low strikeout pitcher with durability issues.

And so. And whip issues. Yeah, sure. I mean, ERA is really the only positive in his. favor and because he has trouble working deep into games. You know, he hasn't had more than 10 wins in a season since 2017. So, yeah, I don't know. And maybe I'm preaching to the choir here by just kind of poo-pooing Marcus Stroman.

But there does seem to be, there does seem to be a lot of enthusiasm whenever he's available on the market, whether it's trade market or the free agent market, which has happened a lot in the past few years. And I don't really think he deserves that level of enthusiasm. Wow, you guys are such Yankee haters. No, I'm just kidding. I completely agree with you. Marcus Stroman is who he is. I think a name maybe that has more value in deeper leagues just because he has a higher floor. He kind of keeps you afloat. You know what you're going to get kind of thing. The ADP over the past month over at the NFBC for Marcus Strowman is 282.2.2 just after John Means and Michael Waka. So I think if I remember correctly, Scott, you had Waka in like the

SP 70-ish range. Does that sound like? I have him, yeah, I have him just a few spots ahead of Stroman. I think that's probably a good place for him. Yeah, I think he's a little better at working deep into games and has a better chance of delivering a useful whip than Stroman does. But they're more or less in the same tier. Okay, fair enough.

All right, let's move on to that trade, which we mentioned earlier. A big massive trade for one, Scott White, because Michael Bush is free, baby. The Cubs have acquired. Back to Bush. The Cubs have acquired. Prospect Michael Bush and Yenzi Almonte from the Dodgers in exchange for two prospects. Left-handed pitcher Jackson Ferris and outfielder Zahir Hope. Michael Bush, a name we've talked about the past couple of years.

He's crushed it in the minors. You know, he's a little bit older now. He's 26 years old, a former first round pick back in 2019. 2023 in the PCL, triple slash 323, 431, 6. 431, 618 with 27 home runs, has played mostly second base in his minor league career, but also has spent time at first base, third base, and left field. Scott, what do you think about the move? Where will Michael Bush play for the Cubs?

I love it. This was the best news I got in any aspect of my life all day, was that Michael Bush was finally set free. I had just, you know, my top 100 prospects came out today. Michael Bush was obviously in it. And I talked about how it seemed like it would take an act of God to get him in the lineup. And it turns out it just took an act of Jed Hoyer to get him in the lineup because the Cubs stepped up. Really what I think happened was the Dodgers had another good.

Obviously, they've been the most active team this offseason. And they blocked Bush's every avenue to playing time. and they finally just admitted to themselves, okay, this guy isn't the right fit for us. And he's already 26 years old, rather than waste this currency, better to turn him into a couple of lower urgency prospects. That's what they got from the Cubs in this deal.

Guys with high upside, but 19, 20 years old, they're not pounding down the door the way Bush is, and they free up 40-man space for them. So, I mean, we heard at the trade deadline last year, the Dodgers weren't willing to move Bush, but now there's just no avenue form whatsoever. There is an avenue form with the Cubs. In fact, there are two avenues, first base and third base.

And I think where Bush ultimately ends up, it's going to depend on what other move they make this offseason. The Cubs have been linked to Reese Hoskins and Matt Chapman and, of course, Cody Bellinger. And I imagine they'll still bring one of those on board. on board and Bush will play the opposite side of the diamond but he'll play is the point

no matter where he plays he'll play with the Cubs and I mean you broke down the numbers that ridiculous slash line at AAA Bush you know he's been productive throughout his minorly career it's mostly manifested in terms of home runs and walks we've seen the Max Muncie comparison for him before but the scouting reports always liked his hit tool this past year was the

first year we saw him hit for average of the minors. One thing I noticed as he was coming up the ladder is that he tended to struggle for like he would need a month or two to adapt to a new level and then he just take off. And so I think that's part of what's held his numbers back. I think because Bush is 26 and just now getting this chance, there's going to be a presumption among some people that, okay, he's not really as good as his minor league numbers. So I do want to point out with Michael Bush, it's not just the forward-facing numbers where he excels. His average exit velocity at AAA last year was 91.3 miles per hour.

His zone contact rate was 89.5%. His swinging strike rate only 7.7%. He is, Michael Bush is, like, he is extremely talented at knowing what pitches to swing at and then not missing them them when he does swing. And I think there's not a much safer hitting profile than that. So I'm thrilled

with this news that he's finally going to get his opportunity. I think he becomes an immediate sleeper in fantasy, especially in points leagues because he's so good at drawing walks. And you know, the left-handedness maybe makes it harder for him to be a full-time player right

away, but if he performs like, I think he will, that'll happen in short order. Michael Bush, as of now, only has third base eligibility on CBS. Chris, I think for now, maybe Michael Bush is a corner infielder in a deeper league, but more often than not, probably a bench piece with upside. Would you be willing to move Michael Bush ahead of other prospects that are third base eligible, like Brett Beatty or like a Jordan Westberg just for the 2024 season? Oh, I don't know.

That's because we do expect both those guys to have a pass. to playing time. Maybe it's not quite as clear immediately as Michael Bush's looks right now. But I always struggle with a with a situation like this when you've got an older prospect. And Scott already acknowledged these things. But it's worth mentioning it's an older prospect. It's a guy who we thought should have been up in 2022. You know, we were kind of pounding the door in a, you know, the royal we as a fantasy community.

And then the Dodgers trade. for not nothing. Like Scott said, these are talented young players, not top 100 prospects, although, you know, I was, I was following,

I can't remember the baseball prospectus, one of their prospect guys, said that they were, there were discussions about including, God, I'm not sure which one it was. I think it was,

um, oh, and Casey? No, no, Jackson Ferris. There were talks about, including him in their top 100 prospects this year.

One of the players that's actually acquired, yeah. Yeah, so that. Yeah, I've heard he has the most upside of any of these players, which is, I mean, I think the world of Bush's upside, so that raised my eyebrow. Yeah. So it's not that they give him up for nothing, but like Scott said, relatively low priority guys, not guys that the Dodgers were looking at immediately making an impact. And so.

Right. I do think there's a chance. that Michael Bush is a little overhyped for fantasy. But obviously, look, I want to see him get the opportunity. And if he turns into a poor man's Max Muncie, that's still a useful player. You know? Does he get drafted inside the top 200? Because as of now, I presume he would not, in which case, like, there's not a lot of downside to take.

Yeah. I think it's a late round pick. And there's very little downside either way. It's just more about avoiding the. hey, this guy is now a superstar type and I don't think anybody's saying that but that's just the

I think it's within the realm of possibility but sure it's it's not a situation where I go into a draft thinking okay I don't need to draft a third basement because Michael Bush will be there very late I don't want to put that kind of pressure on him which was probably something that we all might have said this time a year ago about him

I'm in a slow draft right now over at the NFBC, and I'm two picks away, and it's picked 388. Should I take Michael Bush? I probably should take Michael Bush. Oh, yeah. Yeah, 388. Yeah, like, everybody has made a pick today,

and no one has taken him, so I don't know what's going on. I think I ranked him higher to that prior to this trade. There you go. All right, let's get into the 2023 breakouts and have a discussion whether or not these players can repeat. Now, I will point out that I crowdsource this. I asked Twitter,

and I basically chose the names that popped up the most slash the names I thought were most interesting. So we will start with Josh Lowe, whose pre-season ADP last year was 429. Likely got picked up as a free agent in most leagues in fantasy. He finished 27th overall in Roto. He averaged 3.1 fantasy points per game in head-to-head points leagues. I tried to put these players into categories,

like what kind of breakout category were they in. I think very clearly a post-hype prospect for Josh Lowe, who got called up in 2021, wasn't very good, lowered the strikeouts dramatically. He got called up in 2022, rather, lowered the strikeouts dramatically last year, provided power, speed, 20 homers, 32 steals. Scott, I know you like Josh Lowe quite a bit. What are the chances that he repeats here in 2024? I think the chances are pretty good. You look at the expected stats. They're pretty impressive in their own right.

Expected batting average 85th percentile, expected slug, 81st percentile. You know, he got off to a ridiculously hot start and then really cooled off in the middle of the season. So he would have been a good candidate for yesterday's show, actually, if you tuned out in August, you might have had a different percentage. of Josh Lowe because the last couple months he hit well over 300 was on fire and it brought his

season stat lineup to it legitimized that hot start he got off to it kind of it made it clear it clarified what kind of player Josh Lowe was which is a legit fantasy asset as opposed to this platoon guy who just happened to get hot for a couple months and you know he ended the season with 20 home and 32 steals in a good batting average. I mean, it's kind of just those numbers alone without considering how young he is that, you know, he lost some of bats to left-handed pitchers, just the fact that he hit 292 with 20 homers, 32 steals.

You'd think he'd be a cinch top 15 outfielder this year, but he's not. He's not a cinch top 20 outfielder even. but I don't see anything really in the underlying stats that would scare me away from Josh Lowe. And I think it's more likely than not he becomes a more consistent part of the raised lineup just because they have fewer sure things in that lineup. His numbers against Lefties last year weren't great, but they weren't so bad that it's like there's no way we can justify starting this guy

against left-handers. I think they kind of need to make Josh Lowe the centerpiece of their lineup now. And that's why, for me, he is a top 20 outfielder. Yeah, last year against lefties, Josh Lowe hit 238 with a 712 OPS. So not good, not terrible, as you pointed out here, Scott.

Chris, I will throw it to you 1 to 10 on the breakout repeat-o-meter. That's right. 10, guaranteed to repeat. One, not even close. Where would you follow on that that scale? Five.

I don't feel you're getting a lot of fives. So here's the thing, but specifically with Josh Lowe, I think a lot of players, it's not helpful to think of guys in terms of one possible outcome, right? Right. But that's especially true for a guy like Josh Lowe who I think there is a really, really low. low floor because of the team he plays for. If he gets off to a bad start or he gets hurt or he just something goes wrong, there's a decent chance, a better than average for a top 75 pick, certainly, chance that he just doesn't have a job.

I mean, we've seen this with several high profile players on the race over the past couple years. Austin Meadows comes to mind coming off of his big breakout season where they're going to try to mid-max their way to the playoffs. That's what they do every year. And that means that they might do something that fantasy players hate in order,

if they think it makes their chances of making the playoffs 2% better. That's what this organization does. And so his median outcome is probably pretty good. But when you're talking about investing a 75, top 75 pick. He's 75.4 in ADP at NFC, I think since, you know, encompassing all of their drafts.

That's where it's like, yeah, his, his likelier outcomes might be top 40. But there are some, this guy finishes outside of the top 500 outcomes there. Certainly a lot more than you typically find in that range. And so it's not necessarily, just a spoiler alert, he made my bus 1.0 column. which will be on the site. And at some point in the next three weeks,

I don't know when my specific version is coming out. But it's more than price. I'm happy about that because that means more for me. Yeah, I think I'm two for the draft. I think I'm two for two in taking him in our mock draft so far. I mean, part of it is a part of my enthusiasm for Josh Lowe is a distribution of talent situation where the drop off after, you know, pretty much right about the point I have him in my outfield rankings,

19th is extreme. And there are very few high-end outcomes to be found there. And I think Josh Lowe clearly has one. Yeah, I think that's totally reasonable. Yeah. All right. Let's take on our first break. When we return, a catcher.

Will he repeat it? Let's find out right after this. Welcome back in. Will these breakouts repeat in 2024? Continues on with catcher Jainer Diaz. of the Houston Astros. Last year, likely picked up as a waiver wire piece at some point. He finished as the 10th best catcher in Roto.

He averaged 2.7 fantasy points per game that was tied for seventh best among catchers. Breakout category, I guess a prospect breakout. He wasn't really a big prospect name, but he had some huge numbers in the minors, did Yainer Diaz. And last year hit 282, 23 homers, an 846 OPS. That was the third best OPS. among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances. Chris, we'll start with you this time.

1 to 10 on the breakout Rapido meter. Five? Six. Yes. So, spoiler alert. Yiner Diaz is also on my bus list. Oh. It's kind of,

he's got to be on my breakout list. So I find him really interesting because, you know, obviously the surface level numbers, he kind of just looks like the second coming of Salvador Perez. right? Like he's never going to walk. Doesn't strike out as much as you would think for how aggressive he is because he makes a lot of contact when he swings.

And he does damage on the contact he makes. But he had a 44% chase rate last season, which was one of the five highest marks among players with at least as many played appearances as he had, I believe. And that is not, it's not impossible to overcome that. You know who else had a top 10 chase rate last season? Luis Rob. who was one of the best players in fantasy.

Javier Baez consistently had high chase rates even when he was good. Nick Castellanos has always had really high chase rates. So that's not, it's not impossible. It's just you think about the names that I just said. Javier Baez, Nick Castianos, Luis Robert, Andreas Jimenez in his good 2020 season, had a very high chase rate. None of those guys have been profiles of consistency.

their careers. And so my concern is that it's just, it's a razor thin margin for error. Being a catcher helps a lot because if he hits 250 with 22 home runs, he's a no doubt about it must start catcher. And that's a pretty reasonable floor from where he was. If you look at the underlying data, it's just, is that the floor? Or is the floor 220? Because pitchers just don't throw him anything in the zone whatsoever. That's my concern. Well, I think what's reassuring about Yiner Diaz's floor is that early this offseason, in November, actually, Dana Brown, Astros, GM did us all such a solid by just outright

telling us Yiner Diaz is our starting catcher next year, which we were all clamoring for No question, yeah. Over the course of 2022, when he was lighting it up every time he would get in the lineup, and yet Martine Maldonado continued to get the majority of the work behind the plate. You make the Salvador Perez comparison there with Jainer Diaz, and I do think there are some similarities. I will point out that part of what was impressive about Jainer Diaz's rookie season, his expected batting average was 288, 92nd percentile.

Salvador Perez only had one year where he had an expected batting average like that, and it was the 2020 season when he hit 333. So it was an outlier year for him. I think, you know, Yanir Diaz doesn't strike out as much as Salvador Perez. I think there's more batting average upside there. And yeah, he's an aggressive hitter. Of course, the chaser rate's going to be high when you walk that little. But, you know, he's, I don't know.

He obviously managed to overcome it in a particularly impressive way as a rookie. The power upside is significant. The fact that he plays catcher and there's so little upside to be found there, I think makes me not at all nervous about drafting him as a top five player at the position. I just don't really see a scenario where if I do make the investment in Yiner Diaz, I'm then looking for an upgraded catcher, barring injury, of course. The only thing I don't love about Diaz so far is just the cost. Over the past month, his ADP is 104 as the fifth catcher off the board.

He's kind of on an island in ADP because you have Will Smith who goes at 79, pick 79, and then Salvador Perez is at 130 after him. So, I mean, no one's around him. He's kind of just on a catcher island of 80s. by himself right now. I want to maximize plate appearances at the catcher position. I have him ranked behind Salvador Perez and Wilson Contreras.

Maybe I'm wrong about that, but I just don't see any opportunity for Yiner Diaz to get D.H. at bats in that lineup because Yon-Alvarez is obviously on that team. So I think... Yeah, really plays a lot of Alvarez. And, I mean,

they seem to, like, my point in bringing up the Dana-Brown thing is they seem to really like Yiner's. They should. He seems really good. So I think he'll play, I think he'll just catch a lot. And I don't know that we'll need him to play out of position that much, though he did get some exposure to first base last year too. And no, I mean, I do hear what you're saying about the ADP.

Like, there are enough intriguing bats at catcher that I don't see myself investing at catcher. Like, I'd be happy to settle for Mitch Garver or Bo Nailer. I just don't know that it's the best use of. draft capital to draft Yiner Diaz, but that doesn't mean I don't believe in Yiner Diaz. Right. All right, let's move on to a pitcher finally. We have Kodi

Senga, who last year had a preseason ADP of 18.84.3. He finished as the SP 18 in Roto, SP25 in fantasy points per game. Breakout category, I guess international prospect. I mean, he just came over and he was awesome.

298 ERA, inflated whip because of that walk rate, a 122 whip, but 202 strikeouts and 166 and a third innings pitched. Scott, you will get the first word here. One to 10 on the breakout repeatometer, Kodi Senga. Oh, I'm going to give him, I don't think I've ever given you a number for any of these players yet. So this is the start of me calibrating the repeatometer. Eight, nine, pretty high.

It better be high because I have Kodai Senga as my number 13 starting pitcher for next year. Of course, I'm emphasizing strikeouts, and that's what he does best. But what I think was most encouraging about Kodi Senga's rookie season is the way his control improved over the course of it. Because that was one of the big concerns coming out of Japan was will this guy throw up? enough strikes to get the most out of his strikeout potential. And early on, it didn't seem that way. Early on, he had a lot of trouble finding the strike zone, trying to find the write-up where I actually give the numbers

so that I don't have to figure them out on the fly. It was a 12.2% walk rate in the first half. It was around 9% in the second. Yeah. And there's probably, I think there's a point somewhere in the season where it's even more stark contrast than first half, second half. But the point is he got a lot better at throwing strikes, and it didn't hamper his production at all.

In fact, it made it so he was able to work deep into games. He went six plus innings in all but three of his starts over the final three months, recording double-digit strikeouts and four of those starts over the final three months. So the whip will probably be a little on the high side. and I think durability remains. That was the other big question coming over from Japan. I think that's still a question for Kodi-Sanga. But if you, like me, consider strikeouts to be the one bankable contribution

from starting pitchers in this current environment, then I think you're going to be pretty invested in Kodai Senka. Chris, ideally, what would you want? If you're drafting Kodai-Senga, every player we've talked to, about is on your bus list, so I don't know whether or not you like Kodasanga or not, but if you are drafting him, what would you want him as your, would you be fine with him as your SP1, ideally SP2? What do you think? Ideally SP2, but if he was my SP1 and I was really going to hammer upside picks in the, you know, after the top 100 picks, I think I can

make that work. He's not really an anchor ace because he doesn't have the innings base that I'm looking for if I'm going for an anchor ace. So, you know, that's, it becomes a little bit tougher. I think ideally he's an SP2. But no, I agree with pretty much everything Scott said. The thing to keep in mind with Kodi-Sanga is the baseball that they use in Japan is different. I believe the seams are slightly smaller and the ball is pre-tacked, which is something that MLB has experimented with the thing in the Southern League last season in AA, which was

something that we noted with like Andrew Abbott making the leap and he put up, you know, 50 strikeouts and 27 innings or whatever it was. So like there was a transition period and then that's something that a lot of pitchers coming over from Japan have had to talk about. And that was why Kodaisanga didn't pitch in the World Baseball Classic last year was because he wanted to get used to pitch in spring training and get used to using the MLB baseball. So there was clearly an adjustment period and that doesn't mean that he's fixed forever. and won't walk people, but I think the second half,

and really post-June improvements in walk rate, uh, bode very, very well for a guy who has obvious, legitimate swing and miss stuff. ADP over the past month for Kodi-Singa is 71.5 to 20th starting pitcher off the board. I have him at SP-16. Scott has him at SP-13.

Chris, I don't know if you have your rankings readily available, uh, but anything on Senga? 19, which feels a little low where you guys have him. So that's one that I'll reconsider and revisit. But, you know, where's his ADP? SP20 picks 71.5. I'm a few spots lower in ADP overall and my overall rankings,

but not enough that I'm fading him, certainly. By the way, for the audience who wasn't with us throughout November, December, etc. my starting pitcher rankings are probably going to seem a little off kilter this season, a little apart from the consensus. And if you're wondering why I'm higher or lower on a particular pitcher compared to the consensus, the answer is probably just strikeouts. Like I devalued pitchers who I didn't think gave enough of them, will give enough of them.

And I inflated pitchers who I think will give a lot. And Kodi Senga certainly fits the latter, description. And just for fun, because it's fun to talk about, his forkball might legitimately be the best pitch in baseball. Yeah. He had a 59.5 whiff rate with that pitch last year and a 182 expected Wobah. That is just completely bonkers. Chris. Yep. It's a ghost. It disappears. It's the ghost fork. Oh, wait. I think I have a, do I have it? Nope. I don't have it loaded up. Wait, no, I do. Wait, no, I do. Wait. Who you gonna call? Kodi Senga.

Yeah, I didn't get it with them. I remember you played that last season and I had no idea where you were coming from. Yeah, who you're going to call? So there were two pitches last season that were thrown at least 200 times by all pitchers that had a higher whiff rate than Kodi Senga's fork ball.

It was Felix Bautista's splitter and Robert Stevenson's cutter. Robert Stevenson, still a free agent. We'll see where he winds up. By the way, we're kind of hinting at our rankings a little bit. They will be out on the site on Monday. So if you want to check them out, CBSports.com. Tuesday.

Tuesday. CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. And you can catch all of our rankings and auction values on the site. Let's move into a trio of outfielders. Can these breakouts for Pete? We spoke about Lane Thomas yesterday, but I don't know that we spoke about him enough. And he was the name that kept popping up. People wanted to hear more about Lane Thomas.

So his preseason ADP was 2.91. He finished as the 21st overall player in Roto, a top 12 outfield there in both Roto and Head to Head Points Leagues. Breakout category. This is a player that we've seen glimpses of in the past. I'm not sure anybody saw this type of upside from Lane Thomas. He hit 28 home runs, 1001 runs scored 20 steals. And some things that he did well, pulled the ball more than ever before.

It could help him tap into that power. 51% pull rate. It's 46% for his career. And he cut down on pop-ups. His infield fly ball rate has always been massive. It was almost 19% in 2022, down to 9% in 2023. That was a career best. So those are automatic outs. I love to see when hitters are cutting down on the pop-ups. Scott, we'll start with you again. Chris, you know, got some analysis in on Lane Thomas yesterday. Now you're up. The breakout repeatometer on Lane Thomas. Ooh, let's go three. Spoiler alert.

Lane Thomas is going to be in my busts for next year. You know, I didn't include him. I probably should have. I was afraid it would be one of those situations where everybody would recognize that what he did last year was unrepeatable. and so he would slide to a point where I'd kind of be obligated to draft him but based on early ADP, that's not happening.

He is being devalued from his 2023 value but not as much as I'm devaluing in my own rankings. So yeah, I feel... I have him in Roto. One second. I have Lane Thomas 115th.

Oh, you love Lane Thomas so much. much. I have him 193rd. Oh, geez. I was going to say one.

I have no faith in Lane Thomas. I think he, I think he had a really good half year and turned back into Lane Thomas. And the, the last 70 games of last season,

he had a 300 Wobah. His career mark is right around 300. The quality of contact metrics, his expected Wobo was 319, which obviously that's better than 300, but his actual Wobo was

334. I think it was a complete fluke early on in the season. Like, he'll still enough bases that it's probably hard to see him completely bottoming out. But yeah, I have no interest in Lane Thomas this year. So I guess I need to speak for why I have him 80 spots higher than you then kind of playing. You love Lane Thomas. Well, no. I mean, it kind of goes back to what I was saying about Josh Lowe is like where is the upside at outfield and okay I don't think lane Thomas is as good as he was last year but even as bad as he was in the second half you know he homered eight times in September and he averaged four steals a month over the last four months so like just okay maybe he hits two 20 next year but he's probably going to keep his job on the nationals and

you know, if you approach is 20-20, it's going to be pretty hard to take him out of your lineup in a five outfielder league. And so I don't know. I feel like I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth. I don't think Lane Thomas is nearly as good as he was last year. And I guess I'll just leave it at that. Well, he's...

That doesn't mean he's undraftable. That'll finish the thought. He's in your bus column, Scott. So you better start thinking about those reasons why he's a bust. Now, you gave us some... We already talked about him. The ADP over the past month for Lane Thomas, 106.6.6 to 23rd outfielder off the board. I just checked. I have them at 133. 26th outfielder.

I kind of want them a little bit lower in the outfield ranks. I wanted to make it a point to be lower than ADP. I just, I'm kind of with you guys. I don't think that I want to be in on Lane Thomas in 2024. So you have them, you actually have them higher than I do among outfielders, even though you have them lower overall. Yeah. I guess I need to maybe move some other outfielders up.

Maybe. They're just so bad. I mean, we've talked about it, Scott. Yeah. It's just, you know.

You have Evan Carter ahead of him, right? I think. Because I was surprised how low Evan Carter's ADP is, given how I don't think that I do, but enthusiasm he was generating at the end of last season. I have both Rangers rookie outfielders ahead of Lane Thomas. Yeah, me too.

I, I have Evan Carter. behind him, but I guess this is just a big revelation episode for like our busts, but I think Evan Carter is going to be one of my busts. So, but more on that to come. Let's talk about T.J. Friedel, he's the next one up here. His preseason ADP last year, 343.6, he finished as the 20th best outfielder in Roto, the 24th outfielder in Head Ted Points Leagues.

And kind of similar to Lane Thomas, we saw some hints of this in 2022 with a little bit power and speed from T.J. Friedel, but overall, last year, hit 18 homers, 27 steals. The quality of contact is abysmal. There's no doubt about it, but you know what? He calls Great American Ballpark Home, where he hit 291 with a 926 OPS. Guess what? He's still on the Reds, so he will still be playing his home games in Cincinnati. Chris, you are up. T.J. Friedel, one to 10 on the breakout repeatometer. Two. I,

sounds right. Expected Woba is not perfect. It does not account for spray angle as much as it probably should. And T.J. Friedel is an extreme pull fly ball hitter. And so he is likely to hit for more power than his frankly abysmal quality of contact metrics

would make you think. And that is true. That being said, he outperformed his expected Wobah by 64 points last season. And over the past five seasons, among players with at least 1,000 plate appearances, the biggest overperformer in Wobah minus expected Wobah is Jose Al Tuvei at 34.

Joseo Tube also, I mean, he's a Hall of Famer or would be if not for the cheating. I don't want to get into it. But Jose Al-Tuvae should is a Hall of Fame caliber player. Isaac Paredes is a very similar profile to T.J. Freedle. And his Wobah minus X-Woba is 33. T.J. Friedel is outperforming both those guys by 30 points in this specific metric. That doesn't mean T.J. Friedel can't be good moving forward.

But this is another one where if we got to May 1st and T.J. Friedel wasn't on the roster. I wouldn't be shocked. Like if he got sent down, that wouldn't surprise me. I think he can, he might, there are marginal outcomes in his range of outcomes. And so this is another one.

I'm not quite as low on him relative to ADP as I am, Lane Thomas, but it's another one that there's almost no way I'm going to draft T.J. Friedel. Yeah, I agree almost completely, though I think my dropometer's calibrated. a little differently from yours because I'm going to go four here on T.J. Friedel.

And I think the biggest concern is just that with all the young talent, the Reds are graduating. T.J. Friedel and his second percentile X. Slug could just get forced out of there. But it's clear he knows how to take advantage of that environment in Cincinnati and maximize his power output that way. That's where, what, 13 of his 18 home runs were hit last year. So, like, he's, he's capable of doing that.

I don't think he's going to get hit. I don't think he's going to hit 18 home runs again, but 12 to 15. Yeah, I mean, I'd bet on that as long as he does keep his job. And, you know, he's good at getting on base. They batted him lead off a lot. And even though he's a left-handed hitter, he was at his best against left-handed pitchers last year. I actually hit over 350 against lefties last year. And so I think that,

I don't think he's a platoon risk, and that might be, that might help his job security. So I don't think T.G. Freidel's that good, but I think he's in a really good situation. And as long as he doesn't fall flat on his face, he'll probably get to take advantage of it still, with enough power and enough speed that he'll remain a must start in five outfielder leagues. I believe, I saw this stat somewhere, I'm trying to find it now, but I believe he led all of baseball and bunt hits too, where they would, I don't know,

semi-shift against him, I guess, and he would just drop down a bunt, and he had an absurd number, like 12 or 15 bunt hits, which obviously inflated the batting average from last year because he doesn't hit the ball all that hard. And he has a massive infield fly ball rate, 17%. That's really high.

Again, those are automatic outs. That's bad, man. So, yeah, don't love it. He had 17 bun hits. 17 bun hits. Like, how repeatable is that? Look, I think we're all expecting the batting average to come down. He's probably more of like a 240, 250 hitter with like, I don't know, a little bit of power and maybe a decent amount of speed.

But like you guys have talked about, there are different avenues for this to go terribly wrong for T.J. Friedel and for him to be out of a job. The ADP the past month, 148.3 as the 34th outfielder off the board. I will not be paying that price in 2024. Let's take our final break. When we return, I've got one more outfielder and two more pitchers here on Fantasy Baseball today.

Welcome back in. Can these breakouts repeat in 2024? I mentioned we have one more outfielder. Chaz McCormick. He had a preseason ADP last year of 417. Likely wound up being a waiver wire ad for many people. finish as the 31st outfielder in Roto, average three fantasy points per game. Breakout category, pretty much a surprise, right?

I don't know that anyone saw this coming from McCormick. He showed a little bit in the minors, but not really anything like this. I think this was the most, maybe those most surprising breakout of all of 20203, because he was just a non, it was a 28-year-old who hadn't shown anything in the majors and didn't have a prospect pedigree,

and suddenly he became, so good that we were getting angry at Dusty Baker whenever he took the back the line. Yeah, that's right. The numbers for Chas McCormick, 273, 22 homers, 18 steals, and 842 OPS. And like Jainer Diaz, his teammate, McCormick has been given a vote of confidence

by his GM, Dana Brown. He said this earlier in the offseason, quote, Chaz McCormick will play every day splitting between left field and center field. So it makes you feel good. you know, hopefully some reassurance there on Chas McCormick. Scott, you are back up one to ten on the breakout repeatometer, Chas McCormick. I really want Chas McCormick to be good because I think the outfield position needs Chas McCormick to be good.

My things are really bad at outfield. But they really are. It's hard to be optimistic. It was hard to be optimistic as it was playing. playing out and yet it kept going. And the fact that Astros do seem to be committed to him now, the fact that he's in the Astros lineup and gets all the benefits that come from that, I think are points in Chasmacormick's favor. But, you know, he over outperformed it.

Like, he was a, he overachieved according to his expected stats. And his strikeout rate was pretty bad. and yeah, I just think given his history and given those underlying numbers, it's more likely than not that Chas McCormick takes a step back this year. So on the repeatometer, I'm going to say he's a three. I'm going to put him with Lane Thomas. Oh, lower than T.J. Friedel?

Yeah. All right, I think in a vacuum, I would rather have Chas McCormick than Friedel. Obviously, the fault. That's not the question when you asked me. Right. I mean, Chas McCormick... You're saying it's less likely for McCormick to repeat what he did,

yet T.J. Friedel just had a better season. No, I think Chas McCormick's was better than T.J. like, more power. I think if Chas McCormick is who he was in 2023, that's a better, and like you give them comparable number of the bats, that's a better player. Well, who would you rather have?

Chas McCormick. Okay. I agree with that. Look, for everything you said, the strikeout rate is elevated, the expected number is not great. There were some things that he did do well. An 11% barrel rate that was 72nd percentile. He's decently fast, according to sprint speed, 72nd percentile. So there are some things that kind of favor power and speed there for McCormick.

And again, it's a great ballpark for Ritey, and it's a really good lineup. Chris, your thoughts on Chaz McCormick repeating or coming anything close to what he did last year. the completely out of nowhere mid to late 20s breakout is a very lucrative profile to fade Brandon Drury and Taylor Ward come to mind just from last year's Angels

team The jury was good Neither of them were terrible You know Taylor Ward ended up with like a 760 OPS I could see something like that For Chas McCormick That's where he was before I think that's the likelier outcome

So if he's playing every day and he's a mid to high 700s OPS bad, I think he can be useful. There were some tangible changes in his game, the pulling the ball part especially. He had like three home runs in 2022 to the left side of the field. He is right-handed hitter. Last year, that was way higher. And, you know, I don't know if that's a fluke.

It's also the kind of thing that might just get exploited as pitchers get more tape on him. So I think the likeliest outcome is Chas McCormick doesn't come anywhere close to being as good as he did last year, but he might still be a fringe useful outfielder. I think what I'm learning today is that we're probably fading the middle part of the outfield. Get your outfielders early and then maybe... I don't want to go for these guys.

You know, get some outfielders early-ish, and then I think there are still a lot of really interesting outfielders going later on, but like the middle part, I guess the glob of the outfield, Scott, does not feel good. Look, there's some upside names in there. There's Jackson Churio. There's Wyatt Langford.

Is Evan Carter? I get that. But, like, there are a lot of names kind of like these three that we're talking about here today. Of all the names, you know, of the McCormick, Frito, Lane Thomas, I'm more likely to take McCormick at cost than the other two. But I don't. Yeah, he's cheaper. I don't think that it's, it's not really someone I'm going out of my way to target, which has McCormick. I mentioned we have two pictures we want to talk about.

and it's so interesting that I feel like I'm too low on this player so why don't I just move him up? I don't know, maybe I should do that. Justin Steele, he had a preseason ADP last year of 291.4, and he damn near won the NL Sy Young Award. He finished as the ninth starting pitcher in Roto, the fifth starting pitcher in fantasy points per game,

the breakout category, we saw him be good in 2022, and we just didn't buy it. Maybe we should start to buy it. He had a 306 ERA, a 117 whip just over a strikeout per inning. He improved his control dramatically. He went from 3.78 walks per 9 in 2022, down to 1.87 in 2023. You know, what still remains in the back of my mind is that he's a two-pitch pitcher, who doesn't throw very hard, left-handed, 91, 92 miles per hour on the fastball,

but a very good slider. Chris, you get the first word. one to 10 on the breakout o meter, Justin Steele. You probably will never go broke betting against pitchers, one, you know, especially pitchers who finished in the top three in Siong voting the previous year. It's just generally a good bet that if a guy has a huge breakout in that regard, he's probably going to regress. I don't find myself scared off of Justin Steele, though.

I think he's unlikely to sustain all of the gains he made in terms of his control last season, you know, the 5% walk rate was literally half what it was the previous year, not quite literally. It was one point away from being literally half. So I guess I shouldn't have said literally. I digress. But his fastball plays up in a lot of ways despite being, you know, a low 90s pitch. Now, it's if you've been following baseball for more than about five years, the idea of a lefty who throws 91.8 miles per hour with his fastball.

being like a soft tosser will kind of blow your mind because that's new. But his slider's really good. His fastball gets really good results. He does a really good job pitching on the edge of the strike zone. I think the margin for error is relatively slim with his profile. And I think some regression with the walk rate, he might be more like a mid-3s pitcher in terms of ERA. But I think he's legit in terms of being good.

whether he repeats last year, I'll say a five. You know, I think it's... Yeah. He probably regresses in every way without necessarily being a dramatically worse pitcher, if that makes sense. Yeah, I mean, and I feel like that kind of applies

to this whole exercise when we say, do they repeat their breakout? Do we just mean like directionally? Or do we mean like precisely? Is he got to be precisely who we was last year or is he going to continue to be on the side of good that he joined the side of the force that he joined during 2023 and I think yeah Justin Steele is good and I was kind of marveling at this earlier today actually how I was fighting people about Justin Steele all year it seemed like about

ah regression is coming and they were like no way man Justin Steele is the king and And now, comparing where I have them to ADP, I'm high on Justin Steele. Like, I've become the high guy on Justin Steele, which wasn't by design. I don't know where all the believers went. Maybe I was just preaching to the choir all year when I was talking down Justin Steele. And it was just a vocal minority fighting against me. But I think, you know, 320, 330, ERA with more than a strikeout per inning, you know, generally works deep into games,

going to give you pretty good win potential. I think that's great as a number two starter this year. I mean, number three, I'm getting more like a number three starter, it seems like, and I'm happy to take advantage of that. So I'll go seven on the Belivometer, or whatever we're calling it for Justin Steele. The breakout repeatometer, which is...

Repetometer. Way too long of a phrase. Chris, you started your analysis on Steel talking about how fading a pitcher who was like top. top three in the Syung is probably a favorable strategy. I would think more often than not, top three in Syung means your ADP is higher

than being the 29th starting pitcher off the board. Like, that's where... It's a lot easier to fade Blake Snell. Yeah. Than Justin Steele right now. And even Snell, I mean, Snow won the Sanyang. He's, I think he's SP 15 in ADP. I mean, even that I think is a decent example

of people aren't really valuing the players based on what they did last year, which is good. I mean, that means like, everyone's smart. And we know what to look at. Steel finished fifth in Sion. Yeah. All right. So what did I say?

Top three. Close enough. I said top three. I misslet everyone. Yeah. Yeah. He's the SP 29. Justin Steele is in ADP.

I haven't met 27. I've got to find a way to get him higher because. Yeah. I think that's perfectly reasonable. Yeah. All right. Let's wrap up with Tanner Bybee, who had a preseason 80p.

6.05, I don't know, outside of draft and hold. leagues was not drafted. He was someone that you spent a lot of fab on and he paid off because he had a 298 ERA, a 118 whip right around a strikeout per inning. Doesn't seem to have overpowering stuff compared to like his cohort, I guess like the Bobby Miller's and Grayson Rodriguez is of the world. But man, he has two awesome secondary pitches with the slider and the change up pitches

on a team that does a great job developing, starting pitchers and the Guardians. Scott, Tanner Bybee, 1 to 10, on the breakout repeatometer. I'm going to give Tanner Bybee like six. I think what stands out most for me with Tanner Bybee is that he is how far behind Grayson Rodriguez,

Bobby Miller, that whole sophomore sophomore upside pitcher class. Like, Bivey's not getting the respect he deserves because he was right there with them for his rookie season in terms of how he performed. A great control pitcher. And in fact, I think, you know, he walked almost three per nine as a rookie,

but that was his standout trait in the minors. And so the fact that he had a sub three ERA as a rookie even without dominating in control like he was supposed to. I think that bodes well for his future. sure. And I think there's a lot of upside here. I think he might even be able to do better than he did as a rookie. I don't know that he can approve on a 290 ADRA, but in every other respect, I think that's a likely outcome for Tanner Bybee. Where does the lack of excitement for Tanner Bybee come from? I think it might be a bit of fatigue, Chris, because we have so many young starting pitchers up at the same time. And you just, again, you look at, at Bobby Miller and Grace Rodriguez, they throw 100 miles per hour.

He was better than all of them. He was. Yeah, he was. Like, it's a weird one where all he did was dominate in the minors. There are no workload or injury concerns as far as I know. He only threw 29. No, that was 2020. So that probably doesn't matter.

As far as I can tell, there are no injury concerns or workload concerns with. I mean, through 157 innings last season, through 132 the year before. It seems like a decent bet for 180 or 190 if he stays healthy and doesn't seem to have any more injury risk than any other young pitcher, which means he has a lot of injury risk. But it kind of seems like it was just a case where people weren't excited about him when he got called up or at least weren't as excited about him as Grayson Rodriguez or Bobby Miller or some of those guys. And so we're just not giving him the benefit of the doubt that a lot of young. pitchers seem to get, but I don't know. There doesn't seem to be much in the profile to scoff at, right? Like, he doesn't throw 100.

He averages 95 with his fastball. Yeah, he's another one where like, I've been watching baseball long enough that 95 not being a flamethrower is weird to me. 95 with your fastball averaging is still plenty hard. That's still above average. The multiple secondaries success at every single. level, including the majors. I think this is one where it's just people are sticking too much to a pre-breakout

prospect pedigree that wasn't there in a way that probably doesn't make sense. I think he's someone who deserves more credit than he's gotten. And I think it's completely reasonable to expect a decent step forward as a strikeout pitcher as well. Yeah, I don't know. Because when I, you know, I make out my. rankings before any ADP data is available and that was one of the biggest surprises to me because I do slot by B right behind those other upside sophomore pitchers.

You know, we mentioned his 2908 ERA for the year. Over his final 15 starts, it was a 233 ERA and he actually did have more than a strikeout per inning during that 15 start stretch. So that was a more impressive run than Racin Rodriguez went on, you know? And I'm not sure the upside's that different. So I don't, I don't know why everybody's sleeping on Bybee. I get my sleepers. Yeah, he's SP 33 for me.

So I think I probably have him a little lower than you do, Scott. But that's still a decent amount clear of where he's ranked overall, I believe. You are right in line with ADP, Chris. Over the past month, 118 overall SP 33 for Tanner Bybee. I have him a little bit higher, SP 30. I like him. I've done a few drafts so far. wound up with him, so I think I want to change that. I think I want to make it more of a priority.

I wonder if people are looking at the ERA peripheral numbers, a 422 X-FIP, a 419 Sierra, and maybe that's slightly scaring them away, but might just be overthinking it. He is a flyball pitcher. Maybe there's a little bit of regression in that way. Gives up a few more home runs, but I think the walk rate is going to improve. I agree with you there, Scott. So looks like there could be a buying opportunity for Tanner Bybee here in 2024. All right, We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.

And we'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.