Fantasy Baseball Today - Will These Three Breakouts Repeat in 2024? (Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:02 Will these breakouts repeat in 2024? Find out next on Fantasy Baseball, today in five. Welcome into MPT in five on Saturday, January 13th. I am Frank Stanfield, joined by Scott White, and let's take a look at 2023 breakouts. Will they repeat in 2024? Let's start things off with Josh Lowe, who had a pre-season ADP last year of 429.

Starting point is 00:00:27 He finished as a top 30 player overall this past season. He hit 292 with 20 homers, 83 RBI, 32 steals this past season. Scott, Josh Lowe, 1 to 10 on the breakout repeatometer. 10, definitely going to happen again. One, definitely not going to happen again. I'll put it at about an 8. There are some risks here for Josh Lowe, the biggest being the team he plays for.

Starting point is 00:00:58 And I think part of the reason he's not being drafted at the level he performed at is because, okay, even while putting up those numbers, he wasn't quite an everyday player for the race. He tended to sit against left-handed pitchers. But I think there's actually room for him to improve on his 20-23 season because of that. I think given some of the changes the race have made to their personnel, they're more dependent on Josh Lowe's bat now. They kind of need to make him into a centerpiece of the lineup.

Starting point is 00:01:30 But it splits against left-handed pitchers, well, not great. aren't so bad that there's just absolutely no way they can play him against them. I think they're going to continue to develop him, and there's a chance he could even exceed last year's totals because of that. Those numbers you rattle off. A 20-30 guy who delivered a good batting average as well, it's surprising that people are so lukewarm on him. And I'd understand if you'd look at his stat-cast page

Starting point is 00:01:57 and it was all coated in blue, but that's not the case. His expected batting average Josh Lowe's last year was 85th percentile expected slugged 81st percentile. He basically had the data to back up the performance. And I'm bought in. I plan to draft my second outfielder in a lot of leagues.

Starting point is 00:02:18 All right. Will you be drafting this next outfielder? Let's find out. Lane Thomas last year had a preseason ADP of 291. He finished as a top 12 outfielder in both Roto and head-to-head points leagues. man, he went off. 268 betting average,

Starting point is 00:02:33 28 homers, 101 run scored 20 steals, but did slow down in the second half, Scott. Where does Lane Thomas fall on the breakout rapidometer? On the opposite end, I would say he is a three for me.

Starting point is 00:02:50 And it's hard to get much lower than that and still have any fantasy value at all. So I'm not buying into what he did. I think the second half was a regression to the mean. He had 223 in the second half compared to 302 in the first half. And strikeout rate is too high. The expected stats, you know, he outperformed them by a pretty large margin last year. I do think the fact he plays for a rebuilding club like the Nationals gets him pretty good job security.

Starting point is 00:03:28 and as somebody who can contribute in both home runs and stolen bases, well, he could afford to lose quite a bit off that batting average and still be a worthwhile option in fantasy, but will he come anywhere close to where he was in 2023? I don't think so. All right, let's wrap up with a pitcher who had a massive season, Justin Steele, who had a preseason ADP of 291.4. He finished as the ninth best starting pitcher in Roto,

Starting point is 00:03:57 the SP5 in fantasy points per game. Damn near won the NL. Sayung Award as well. With a 306 ERA, a 117 whip, just over a strikeout per inning. Scott, he drastically improved his control year over year. Is a two-pitch pitcher, but does it in an interesting way.

Starting point is 00:04:17 It's a fastball that gets a lot of spin. It's a slider that's a really good pitch for him. The breakout repeatometer on Justin Steele. Yeah, I think. this is about an eight as well. I'm pretty bought in, which is surprising because I feel like I was constantly fighting with people about how Justin Steele was bound to regress. He kind of did regress at the end of the season, which is why I only finished fifth in Sy Young voting, but I think he regressed to a point where I could believe it more or less. He is ERA finishing in the 320, 330 range,

Starting point is 00:04:51 good ground ball pitcher, terrific control pitcher, maybe so good this past year that it's hard to believe he could repeat it, but he's not going to become a bad control pitcher. I feel pretty comfortable saying that. Generally, he works deep into games,

Starting point is 00:05:06 more than a strikeout per inning, should be a good source of wins. I think he's, I think he's more like a number two starting pitcher in fantasy, but you're able to draft him as a number three right now. Surprisingly, I guess, I've become the high guy on Justin Steele.

Starting point is 00:05:25 Over the pat. Who would have thought? Who would have thunk it? Last year, Scott was fighting off the Chicago Cubs fans. Now he is a fan himself of Justin Steele. The ADP over the past month, 108, as the 29th starting pitcher off the board, seems like a pretty good value there on Justin Steele.

Starting point is 00:05:42 For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcast, the Odyssey app, or anywhere else podcasts are found. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball today and five. And we'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.

Fantasy Baseball Today - Will These Three Breakouts Repeat in 2024? (Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 Podcast)

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