Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Willy Adames to the Giants! Tyler O'Neill to the Orioles! (12/7 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 8, 2024

Willy Adames signed with the Giants on a seven-year, $182 million deal (2:00)! ... How much will Adames regress (7:10)? ... Tyler O'Neill signed a three-year deal with the Orioles (11:48)! ... What is the Orioles plan (13:41)? ... Who will play most for the Orioles (17:50)? ... What is O'Neill's early ADP (23:40)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Breaking news. No, it's not Juan Soto yet. Welcome into an emergency edition of Fantasy Baseball today on Saturday night. December 7th, I am Frank Sanford, joined by Chris Towers today on the show. We had some big news come out here on Saturday. Willie Adamas signed a massive deal to the San Francisco Giants and Tyler O'Neill to the Orioles as well as Gary Sanchez. We'll talk about that a little bit later on.

But the big news here, Chris, Willie Adamas to the Giants on a seven-year, $182 million deal, the largest in Giants history. First big move made by Buster Posey since he's taken over the team. But Willi Adamas had a career year in a contract year. He was awesome. 32 home runs, 112 RBI, 21 steals, finished as the 19th overall player in Roto. He was the 14th best hitter in head-to-head points. Truly an awesome season.

and I'm genuinely happy for the Giants. I mean, they've tried the past couple off seasons to bring in some big talent. Willie Adamas, okay, not on the level of an Aaron Judge, a Shohei Otani, but he's a pretty good get. Let's talk about how this actually affects his fantasy value, though, because on paper, it's a pretty big park downgrade. It's a pretty big lineup downgrade.

And on top of that, the Giants didn't really run that much this past season. So talk to me about Willie Adamas to the Giants, his fantasy value. Yeah, that's the running is, I think, the big thing that's going to be tough to figure out because, one, Willie Adamas had never been a big stolen base guy before last year. He still 21 bases on 25 attempts. Before that, his career high was eight steals on 11 attempts, career high in both categories. So I don't know. Like, it was weird because we saw Matt Chapman suddenly become a 15 stolen base guy, which he was another guy who his career high was four. before this. So that seems like a good sign. He was second on the team with 15. Third was Eli Ramos with six.

They only stole 68 bases as a team. So that's one where you could look at the Matt Chapman part of it and say, all right, he joined this team. All of a sudden he starts running a lot more, but nobody else on the team really ran much. You know, even like Tara Estrada,

who has been a pretty solid stolen base threat in the past, four stolen base attempts last year in 96 games. So I'm not 100% sure what it means. I think I would feel somewhat comfortable expecting like 15-ish steals from Willi Adamas, but I'm not sure how much more. And you said park downgrade, I don't know. If you look at the stack has factors for the past three years, Oracle Park is right behind American Family Field, Miller Park.

to those of you who I don't really like I don't even know when that change happened so it's still Miller Park to me I tend to stick with those things for a long time but it is a downgrade for power for sure I think probably less so for a right handed hitter because left handed hitters tend to do really well with home runs in Milwaukee and not so well in San Francisco but I think even for right handed hitters it's a pretty big downgrade between moving from Milwaukee. to San Francisco. And Willie Adomis is one of those guys who's got like good quality of contact metrics, not really elite quality of contact metrics. He's like 82nd percentile X slug last year, 81st in barrel rate. Actually, a hard hit rate, average eggs of velocity, a little lower. Not a guy who super maximizes his swing for pull to the in the air. So I think on the whole, one, nobody should have expected Willie Adamas to replicate what he did last season because it was a career year.

It was a contract year, career high in home runs, career high in RBI, had MLB record, I think 13 three run home runs is the step that we've thrown around a lot. So we were expecting a step back either way. But a shortstop who gives you 25 plus home runs and 15 stolen bases, probably. hits third or fourth in the lineup. Like, that's probably still a very solid starter. It's just certainly not a best case scenario for Willie Adomas's fantasy value, I think. Yeah, if you look at the steamer projections, they seem pretty fair. 240 batting average, 26 home runs, 84 RBI, 13 steals.

And that's before this move. So maybe they'll tweak that a little bit. That comes out as an $11 player in a 12-team league. I feel like that sounds pretty good for Willie Adomis. Look, he made some improvements this past season. There's no doubt about it. You know, raise the launch angle, hit a bunch of fly balls to the pole side, which obviously plays well for power.

And while he doesn't hit the ball all that hard, you brought that up, the barrel rate, 81st percentile, like, he finds a way to get the most out of it, right? When he puts the ball in the air and hits it to the pole side. Mention the park factors, specifically for right-handed power, home-run factor for righties. he's going from the sixth best ballpark in American Family Field all the way down to 28th in Oracle Park.

So look, I think there was going to be natural regression anyway. I don't want to pin this all on Oracle Park because I think the most likely scenario is he was going to take a decent size step back anyway. But someone that could be a viable player. I just think we shouldn't expect anything close to what Willie Thomas did last season. And I have him ranked a little lower than his ADP.

Right now, his ADP is right around 70. I had him 85th. before the trade. The thing is when you look at the shortstop rankings, one, I do have Boba Chet ranked higher than Willie Adamas, which the ADP definitely does not have. There's about 70, 80 spots between them.

Boba Chet is going to wind up being one of the most polarizing players this all season. We talked about that, I think, earlier this week. And Scott and I are both much higher on Boba Chet than the consensus. But I don't really have any room to move Willie Adamas at shortstop, because I have Boba Chet ahead of him. this certainly doesn't move Willie Adamas up. I have Matt McLean next.

And in the overall rankings, I have 45 spots between them. So it's certainly not that big of a downgrade for Willie Adamas. So I think Adomas is going to be around the 90th player for me between 80 and 90 when we officially unveil rankings, you know, where it specifically ends up. I'm not 100% sure. But it's a move where you can certainly understand why the Giants did it, right? This is a team that has been looking to make a splash in free agency. I would guess they're still going to try.

You know, maybe a Corbyn Burns or something like that. I would think they're still going to be in play for. But, I mean, really shores up the left side of the infield on defense. There was a couple of reports this week. I don't know if you saw that like they were in on Alex Bregman. And if they signed him, Matt Chapman might have moved to shortstop, which would have been weird. This makes much more sense.

This is a much more logical way to spend. that money. So I get it from the Giants perspective. I still have a lot of questions about what the long-term vision and long-term goal is there and, you know, what Buster Posey is going to do as the president of baseball operations. But, you know, from a fantasy perspective, I think this one is pretty straightforward, a slight downgrade for Willie Adomas, but doesn't really dramatically change the way I view him overall. I think that's where I'm at. Yeah. And you mentioned the early ADP, it's right around pick 65, so the sixth round of a 12-team league. And Willie Adamas kind of represents this island in shortstop ADP, where he's about 20 picks behind C.J. Abrams, but he's also

50 picks ahead of Matt McLean, so similar to your rankings there, where, you know, Willie Damas is kind of right in the middle. My guess is he probably moves down a little bit with this move, probably closer to pick 75 for Willie Adomis, which I think is okay. It's fine. I probably will have him lower than that, but I get it. It depends on how bullish you want to be on the stolen bases in particular. Because if you can go 30-20 again, that's a hugely valuable player, obviously. Yeah, I think I would personally expect more like... Take the under on both.

Yeah, I would expect like 10 to 12 steals, I think, and 25-ish home runs, which again, solid player. Let's take a quick break. When we return, we will talk about Tyler O'Neill, who signed with the Orioles. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Tyler O'Neill. signed with the Orioles on a three-year $49.5 million deal that includes an opt-out after the first year.

And he is 29 years old, just had a really strong season with the Red Sox. He hit 241, 31 home runs, and 847 OPS. He did all of that in just 113 games. He averaged three fantasy points per game that was tied for 15th among outfielders. And the power is still incredibly real, Chris. 270 ISO ranked fifth among hitters with 450 plate appearances this past season. But like Willie Adomis, I feel like there's a slight downgrade here in the least because he's going from the green monster in Fenway to, I don't know, an altered Baltimore here in Camden Yards. We know that they're expected to pull the walls in closer to home plate, but my guess is it's still not going to be as good as hitting in Fenway Park.

So what are your thoughts on Tyler O'Neill to the Orioles? Yeah, one interesting thing is that if you look at the expected home runs via stat cast, actually not a big difference between Baltimore. and Boston, some of that is the pre-2020 when they move the fences in. But even over the past three seasons with the fences out in Baltimore, the difference between Baltimore and Boston comes out to about eight home runs over three years, which is not nothing. But it's not as dramatic a shift as you would expect, especially when you have to account for the fact that they are moving the fences in somewhat,

trying to create, you know, it was two-hitter-friendly according to the Orioles before it became too pitcher friendly which everybody knew when they announced that they were moving their fences back 30 feet i'm not sure why they they seemed caught off guard by that but yeah i think it'll probably play closer to neutral boston is a pretty hitter friendly park for right-hander so it's a downgrade but i think the bigger thing here is just i don't really understand what the oriole's plan is right now like this is one where it feels like there are three three years three more moves coming. And they already also signed Gary Sanchez to an $8.5 million one-year contract.

So not. That doesn't really sound like backup catcher money, you know? That is backup catcher. Like Kyle Higashioka got what, two for 17, I think it was. Yeah, that's fair. What did Danny Jansen get? But I guess he's going to be a starter, right? I think that was like one 10.

Yeah. One for 10, something like that. So like it's a real, but like with how much Adley Rutchman plays and always has plays. you've got to figure this gums up the works at DH in some way. I mean, you know, not to say Gary Sanchez is going to be a full-time DH or anything, but if he catches 35 games and starts 15 to 20 at DH or Adley Rutchman starts 20, you know, whatever the combination is, I think this does shift some plate appearances over to the, the D8 spot where, you know, you already have between DH and catcher,

a pretty crowded situation in Baltimore. You've got Ryan Moucassel who I think we all expect a little better from with the fences moving in because it feels like defense is being moved out, hurt him more than anybody. But you've got Ryan O'Hern at D.Hat, you've got Keston Hirstad, who was supposed to be part of the corner outfield conversation. You know, Kobe Mayo not necessarily a corner outfielder, although I think there's a chance he gets some reps there at times,

but this also kind of muddies the water for him, because I think the one thing Baltimore had a surplus of before signing Tyler O'Neill was just corner guys, first, third, left, right. And now they've got another one. And with Gary Sanchez in, that creates, you know, at least some new competition for DH plate appearances. So I just, I look at it all, and it looks like a team that is still, a long way from having their their final 2025 roster set, which makes sense. It's December 7th as we're

recording, but I also thought this was a team after trading for Corbyn Burns that still had a move left last year. And they turned, you know, did end up making a couple of moves at the deadline to go get Zach Eflin, go get Trevor Rogers. But I don't, I just don't understand what Baltimore, or like the balance between short term and long term thinking, it still feels like there's too much like trying to straddle the line. And it's like, no, you're a contender right now. This is the moment. And I don't know if it's a Kobe Mayo trade for Garrett Crochet,

moving Heston Kirsten. Kirstadt. That's the correct order of, okay. That's one of those ones I always stumble on. you know, whether it's moving him for Cedric Mullins is an impending free agent at the end of the year. So it feels like there's still a lot left for this Baltimore Orioles team to do. And the only thing is I just, I don't know if I have faith in them to make the next moves.

Or at least right now, certainly I don't know what the next moves are. Garret Crochet just makes so much sense, man. And they, I don't want to say, like, they have a surplus of prospects, obviously, and young players. And I don't think you should just give those players away. But getting two years of service time from Garrett Crochet and whoever trades for him, I assume, is going to sign him to an extension as well, although maybe I shouldn't assume that if it's the Orioles. It just feels like it makes so much sense. They have so many hitters and they obviously could use another front line starter. I don't think that they're going to bring back.

I think, too. I don't think they're going to bring back Corbyn Burns. Like, maybe I'm wrong about that. but it doesn't seem that way as of now. So, yeah, Garretre Crochet would make so much sense going to the Orioles. Looking back at their lineup,

just trying to figure out, as of now, who's playing time is the safest. The fact that they just played Tyler or Neal, like he's probably the safest of everybody. Really? He's going to play a bunch. And then you have Colton Kouser,

who was one of the best rookies in the American League this past season. I feel like he's going to play every day. I think they need Cedric Mullins' defense in center field, though. Couser could play there as well. Then at D.H. You have Ryan O'Hern. You still have Ryan Malkassel.

It's, it made so much sense to give someone like Hess and Kirstat a shot here unless they don't have confidence in him. But, I mean, the bigger thing for me is just there is nowhere for Kobe Mayo to play right now. Yeah, I was going to say third base, but now, you know, they have Westberg. They have Westberg at third. Either there is nowhere for Jackson Holiday to play or there is nowhere for Kobe Mayout to play. And look, Jackson Holiday looked overmatched enough last year that I think it would be reasonable to go into next season, not planning on him being in the everyday lineup, but he was down the stretch. You know, he was the guy who was playing, not Kobe Mayo, who I think played, started six of the final 25 games after getting called up at the end of last

season. So it's frustrating because Kobe Mayo, still one of the top prospects in baseball, has played 151 very good games at AAA, got 46 plate appearance. in the majors last year, and it just doesn't seem like there's any, I don't know, strong lean towards giving him playing time, and I don't quite understand what the holdup is there. Maybe there's something that we're not seeing, maybe there's something with the makeup or the defense.

I don't know, but it just, it seems like this is a team that still needs to consolidate, and this is a team that still needs to, focus less on long-term goals and, you know, we can't give up on a Jackson holiday or we can't give up on a Kobe May or whatever it is, it does seem like they need to make another Corbyn Burns trade. And honestly, you look at the rotation right now and it's like, Zach Eflin, okay, that's a fine number two or number three starter. Grayson Rodriguez still like the upside, but right now seems more like a number two or number three, who, you know, has had had missed

significant time into the last three seasons now. And then it's Dean Kramer, Albert Suarez, Trevor Rogers. You know, I guess Kyle Bradish might be back at the end of the summer. Maybe John Means is back by the end. But like, I feel like they're two starters away from being where this team should be. and I felt they were another starter away after trading for Corbyn Burns last year, and I thought they were going to make that move because they gave up so little for Corbin Burns, right? It was Joey Ortiz and D.L. Hall. And it felt like, oh, they're set to make another big splash, and they just never did it. So I'm very confused about what the short-term plan for Baltimore is.

I feel like I'm kind of talking in circles around it, but it's because I just look at it and I don't understand what the goal is. They kind of treated Trevor Rogers like that was the big picture move, even though it clearly was not. And look, even at the time, we kind of figured we were like, what are the Orioles doing? You know, they gave up Connor Norby, who, you know, in a small sample, he looked like a pretty damn good player with the Marlins last season. Yeah. And look, I think Trevor Rogers, they've already talked about. He's going to drive line to try to build his velocity back up. He, you know, was sitting 94, 95 at when he was a rookie the year contender with the Marlins. He was down to like 91, 92 last year. So that did. feel like a long-term view move, not a, hey, this is a guy we can slot in our rotation

and be a difference maker in the second half. It never felt like that to me. Maybe that was just because I watched a lot of Trevor Rogers and he hadn't been that guy in a couple of years. I don't know. But maybe they're really confident that they can build him back up this offseason and he can be that number two guy or number three guy. But even so, that still gives you two young starters in Grayson Rodriguez and Trevor Rogers who have not been able to stay on the mound the past couple of years consistently. Zach Eflin has a pretty long injury track record of his own.

It's more lower body stuff for him historically than arm, but still concerning that he, you know, not a guy that you can necessarily count on for 30 starts. So I just, something's missing. And we've got four-ish months, you know, three and three-quarters months until opening day. Yeah.

There's plenty of time for the Orioles to do something, but it, I'm, I'm confused by what the, what the approach, what the thought process is here. And look, Tyler Neal is a fine player. Yeah. And given his injury track record, only has only played more than 115 games once in a major league season, maybe they also can't count on him to stay healthy. And they need to count on, you know, him missing some time and giving him some time off. and three years, 49.5 million is not such an onerous deal that if he's a, you know, 80% of the time player, it's probably fine, but it's still, it just didn't feel like what this team needed, you know? Yeah. And that's the thing I keep getting hung up on is just like Willie Adomis to the Giants makes perfect sense.

They needed a shortstop. They don't think Tyler Fitzgerald's a long-term answer there. Great. That makes sense. You got a great left side of the infield for the next five years. the Orioles, I'm just super confused and there's got to be a consolidation trade coming. That's the only thing that makes sense about their roster. Last question on Tyler O'Neill. The early ADP for him is 190.4 that makes him the 45th outfielder off the board. He's going just after Kerry Carpenter, just ahead of names like Taylor Ward and Elliot Ramos. What are your thoughts on the price tag for Tyler O'Neill?

I think that's fine. I have him a little higher than that. I have him 151 at outfielder 41, but not a big difference. Still has big time power. You know, in, oh, what was it, 130 games? He hit 31 homers last year. Yeah. You know, I don't expect that pace to continue,

but all the underlying numbers still suggest he hits the ball super hard. He's a super strong guy. He's got great bat speed, all that. We kind of know what Tyler O'Neill is at this point. And, you know, it's, It's a volatile profile, but I think one that helps any team. It's just, does he help Baltimore all that much? Given what their alternatives are, I just, I don't really see it.

Yeah, and I would say this all but guarantees that Anthony Santander will not be back with the Orioles this offseason. So whichever team misses out on Juan Soto could be in on Santander or some other team. I know the Blue Jays are really trying to make a splash this offseason. So perhaps that could make some sense for Santander. as well. Last thing I'll add on Tyler O'Neill, he did hit 2.41 this past season. The XBA was 218. The plate discipline, it's gotten pretty bad. 33.6% strikeout rate, zone contact and swinging strike rate, both pretty bad. So there is potential for some

really bad batting average, but I do think the power is still very legit for Tyler O'Neill. I mean, you got to keep in mind, we've seen two very good seasons from Tyler O'Neill. he's also 30 about to turn 30 turns 30 next year 29 yeah that's turn 30 in June and again has played more than 115 games once has an OPS over 722 three times technically but one of them was in 2018 as a rookie in 61 games so

it's also a pretty volatile skill set so I you know I think as a a number four outfielder where you know we've talked a lot in the in the drafts we've done so far this year that it's a lot easier to find speed than power in the mid to late rounds of drafts he is a source of power it's just there there's a reason he's available in the middle rounds when a lot of guys who could hit 40 home runs typically are not available yeah i my early read is it's probably a fade i think both guys right now at costs are probably a fade William Damos and Tyler O'Neill.

But if they drop down a little bit, maybe that creates a buying opportunity for those two names. Quick check, Juan Soto has not signed yet, but it sounds like it could be done any minute this weekend. Matt's and Yankees apparently have up their offers over $700 million now, which is pretty bonkers. It's a dream come true for both him and Scott Boris, man.

You get the New York teams bidding against each other, and man, magic. Magic will happen in that contract whenever that is revealed. my guess is sometime this weekend. Probably tomorrow, the winter meetings start up and maybe they, you know, start it off with a big announcements. I think I'm going to the movies tomorrow at 1 o'clock. So that might be the exact moment, actually, what happens.

I have a family birthday party from like 2 to 6 p.m. So it's right in that window. It's absolutely going to happen tomorrow. Like 155. Yeah. We'll be the time. We did have some pitching moves in the past couple days as well, but we will save those for next week.

But Luis Severino to the A's. I mean, who would have thunk it, right? Biggest guaranteed contract given out in A's history. All they had to do was move into a minor league ballpark to start spending money, which is... I saw someone reference the time that the Marlins got bullied by the MLBPA into giving Josh Johnson an extension. This is 12 years ago now, maybe more. But that's what it felt like. It was like, you got to act like a real franchise.

And so, yeah, yeah, give Luis Severino a three-year deal, whatever. I saw a chart of like the most guaranteed money that any team has given out to every team has given out to a free agent. And like somehow seven teams have given out less guaranteed money than this Louis Severino trade, including I want to point out the Pittsburgh Pirates, who the largest free agent contract they've ever given out, I believe was a two-year $17 million deal to Russell Martin. Wow. Yeah. Yeah.

All right. Well, Pirates, you're next. men. I mean, if the A's out here spending money. The Marlins, the pirates actually, like, really should be spending. They should be playing in free agency right now. You have to maximize the kitchen core they have right now. Yeah, have

to maximize Paul Skeens while you have him, you know, under team control for as long as you do. That could be a really good rotation this year. 100%. They have prospects coming too, man. Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington. That is a really, really fun, young, exciting

team if they can, you know, bring in some offense as well. Shane Bieber went back to the Guardians. He is recovering from Tommy John. should be back sometime around the All-Star break. Clay Holmes went to the Mets as a starter. So that will be interesting to talk about. Could maybe be a serviceable spark sometime in 2025, but we will talk about those moves next week. We are going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again on Tuesday. But honestly, probably sooner to talk about Wonsida.

Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.