Fantasy Baseball Today - Worry-O-Meter! Gerrit Cole Struggles, Hunter Brown Keeps Rolling (6/26 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 26, 2024

Gerrit Cole had a pretty awful outing in his second start of the season (2:35). ... The Mets are hot, and so is Mark Vientos (6:55). ... Guardians at Orioles was a heavyweight battle (14:10). ... News... (21:16): Kyle Tucker took swings off a tee Sunday. ... Let's fire up the Worry-O-Meter for Cole, Luis Castillo and Bobby Miller (27:40). ... Is it time to drop George Springer, Ryan Jeffers and Brayan Bello (38:10). ... How do we rank Joey Ortiz, Jonathan India and Nick Gonzales (45:52)? ... Any interest in adding Zack Littell and/or Kyle Hendricks (51:13). ... Hunter Brown is on fire (55:50)! ... These five bats are heating up in June (58:26). ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (1:01:17). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, June 26th. I am Frank Sample, joined by Chris Towers. Today on the show, it's time to fire up the Wauriometer.
Starting point is 00:00:35 We're looking at you, Garrett Cole. Hunter Brown has been awesome. We have a group of hitters who are heating up and much more. But let's jump in. The impossible has happened. Well, there's only one place to start, Chris. Player of the Night for all the wrong reasons. Yeah, I saw some discussion on Twitter.
Starting point is 00:00:54 I think Scott was talking to someone about like, oh my goodness gracious and how it should be like a good player. And unfortunately, sometimes bad performances make us say, oh my goodness gracious as well. And that's the case with Garrett Coles. performance on Tuesday. His second start back from the IL and his velocity was down significantly. 1.3 miles per hour down overall average 95.4 miles per hour with the fastball. But if you look into the game log, it was even worse than that because he came out early on and looked more or less where he normally does.
Starting point is 00:01:30 96, 97, 99 miles an hour in the first inning. and then right at the 15th fastball that he drew through the the velocity drops from like 98 to 91. And that was the slowest pitch that Garrett Cole threw as a fastball in this start. But from that point on, he was maxing out at 95. Now, after the start, Cole did say that that was an intentional decision that he threw a lot. He was a high stress first inning. He didn't want to push himself too hard after that. And that's why his velocity was down.
Starting point is 00:02:04 okay, but this is a guy coming back from an elbow injury, former Sy Young winner, or last year, Sy Young winner, should be said. And he's been pretty bad, especially in this start. First start, okay, you can give him a break, but six earn runs over four innings of work, seven hits, four walks, four home runs.
Starting point is 00:02:30 First Yankees pitcher, actually good company. first Yankees pitcher since Roger Clemens to give up four walks and four home runs. If I read that note correctly, there was a great quote from Roger Clemens. When it happened to him, his mom threw out the first pitch in that game. And the quote from Roger Clemens was, we should just let her pitch the rest of the game. So that was funny. But yeah, I don't know. Where are you at on Garrett Cole right now?
Starting point is 00:02:58 I think it was pretty worrisome. I, you know, at risk of being called a homer, I do want to remind everyone, this is his spring training, right? This is his second start, and afterwards, they're talking to Aaron Boone, they're talking to Aaron Judge. Like, those guys didn't seem worried. Judge brought up literally said, this is Garrick-Cole's spring training. I want him out there every fifth start.
Starting point is 00:03:21 Like, he's the ace, you know, typical, whatever, Aaron Judge, PR type stuff. But I think that's a fair reminder. And I don't think there's no cause for concern here. everything that you read off, the fact that his velocity dropped as much as it did in that second inning. And then he was so ineffective. He gave up two home runs in that second inning once the velocity was down. So I think there is definitely cause for concern. I think barring some kind of Garrett Cole-esque outing this weekend at the Blue Jays, you got to bench him for the foreseeable future, which kind of sucks because you held on to him all year and you just figured, all right,
Starting point is 00:03:55 once he's back, he's Garrett Cole, but it obviously has not gone that way. And the thing to keep in mind, as you mentioned, this is his spring training. He's only made five starts this season because he missed all of spring training, missed the first two months of the season, and only made the three rehab starts, only got up to 68 pitches on his rehab outings. So, you know, when we were when we were talking back in like early June, I had said I didn't expect Cole to make his debut until July. I figured they were basically going to treat June like spring training, let him build up. And instead they, they kind of pushed the timetable forward, got him back up, you know, on the, on the 19th, and maybe they should have been a little
Starting point is 00:04:37 more cautious about that. Not that I think there's much risk of re-injury. There, there obviously is some, but that's impossible to quantify, but just, yeah, Garrickole doesn't quite look right yet. And I agree. We'll watch the next one closely, but if it's another poor outing, another four-inning outing especially, I just don't know if you can trust him to give you the kind of length that you need, let alone the quality of the start. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:05:04 Even if it's a five-inning, one run, two runs, four-five strikeouts, just like a mediocre solid start, I probably will not be all that comfortable with putting him in my lineup next week. That depends on the matchup. I haven't looked into it yet. But yeah, it's pretty worrisome.
Starting point is 00:05:21 We'll see where Garikolt goes from here. Oh, my goodness gracious for me, I'm just going to choose the entire team that blasted off against Garrickole, and that is the New York Mets. They are hot right now. They have won 10 of their last 12 games. They won the first game of the Subway Series here, 9 to 7, and wanted to highlight a few different hitters,
Starting point is 00:05:38 Brendan Nimmo, won for 4 with his 12th home run. Last 10 games, he is on fire. 4-15 batting average, 5 homers, 15 runs, 14 RBI. As we've pointed out all season, the expected stats have looked great for Brandon Nimmo, and it looks like those numbers are finally coming around. round. Mark Vientos, two for four with a double dong, last seven games for him, batting 423 with four homers, and overall he's batting 297 with a 925 OPS. And Harrison Bader, two for four with
Starting point is 00:06:07 a sock and a shoe, revenge game against the Yankees, his fifth home run, his 11th steel. We'll come back to Harrison Bader in a little bit, but I want to focus on Mark Vientos, Chris, who we highlighted last week, he continues to hit, he's hitting for power. Exit velocity's are great. Don't like the fact that he puts the ball on the ground as much as he does. But at 44% rostered, third base, kind of a middling position, it feels like that number should be higher for Mark Viantos. Yeah, I mean, look, the the ground ball rate too high, 54.5%. That's going to limit what he can do. But the big difference between what Mark Vantos was doing last season, what he's doing this season is he was hitting too many ground balls last season as well. But what was really killing him was the 31% strikeout rate.
Starting point is 00:06:58 Well, this season, he's got that down to 22%. And it's basically come from improvements across the board in plate discipline and, you know, the contact rate. He is swinging at more pitches in the zone, swinging at fewer pitches outside of the zone. exactly what you want to see. His zone contact rate up from 71.7% to 75.3%. Making more contact on pitches out of the strike zone as well, which doesn't really matter as much, but still keeps with the theme that while I think the ground ball rate
Starting point is 00:07:33 makes it unlikely that Mark Viantos has any chance to sustain his current 925 OPS, or actually it's 925 after today. I don't think that's going to happen, but, you know, he hits the ball hard. He's making more contact. He tends to pull the ball when he does hit it in the air. So I do think Mark Viantos is someone that you can look at and say, okay, 925 OPS, that's not sustainable. But his expected hope is up to 353.
Starting point is 00:08:03 That's a very solid mark. That's well above average at this point. And again, I'm even skeptical that he'll keep that up. But yeah, he's, what, four? 43% rostered, something like that, 44% rostered. I think that probably needs to be more in the 70% range now. I'll throw some names your way. Would you drop any of these players for Mark Vientos?
Starting point is 00:08:27 And first up is Key Brian Hayes. He's 65% rostered. I'm totally fine with that, yeah. Justin Turner is also 65%. I think that's fine. Michael Bush is 58%. Yeah, probably. I guess I haven't looked too closely.
Starting point is 00:08:44 into what Bush has done lately. He's heating back up. He's heating back up. Not hitting for much power, though. I think I'd be okay with going with Vientos because, you know, Bush has the 33% strikeout rate of his own. Quality of contact, good, but given the strikeout rate, it's going to be hard to optimize that. So, yeah, I think I'd be okay with that in Roto at least. Yeah, I think I'd be good with that too.
Starting point is 00:09:13 Jake Berger, 54% rostered. Yeah, I don't really see much reason not to. Yeah, I agree with that. I think the closest one is Joey Ortiz, who's 67% rostered. He hit another home run here on Tuesday. And at times, I feel like this is a cop out if you say, oh, this guy in Head to Head, Head, Points, this guy in Roto.
Starting point is 00:09:35 But man, Joey Ortiz's skill set for a points league, he walks so much, he's getting on base. The strikeout rate is even lower than Vend. He actually does chip in a few steals too. He just feels like such a good points league player. I think I'd probably just take Joey Ortiz in both formats, but it is, it's razor thin for me. I like both of these guys a lot. Yeah, I give Joey Ortiz the edge in all formats.
Starting point is 00:09:58 That's Joseph Ortiz in CBS Sports Leagues, by the way. Yeah, who do we have to talk to to to fix that? Because I feel like it's, yeah, there's some like weird. Like, I think we still have it as Nathaniel Lowe or no, we have it as Nate Lowe, but he's Nathaniel Lowe everywhere. We have it Joshua Lowe, but he's Josh. Yeah. It's a weird David John Hertz.
Starting point is 00:10:18 Yeah. It's an interesting. Just so everyone knows, we don't have anything to do with that on this podcast. So maybe we'll find out who does. Let's quickly talk about Harrison Bader, Chris, who is having his best month yet in June. He's batting 273. He's got three homers. The counting stats are there.
Starting point is 00:10:37 Three steals. 840 OPS. He does sit out every third or fourth game. 17% rostered is really low. I think in 15-team, five outfielder Roto leagues for sure, 12-team Roto with five outfielders, he's probably right on the fringe. What do you think about Bader?
Starting point is 00:10:56 I think he's pretty much just a steel specialist and not an especially special steel specialist, but he's not a zero, you know, as an overall hitter. He's hitting what, right around 270 for the season? Very little power. but I don't know. In deeper five outfielder leagues, he's okay, but not someone that I think needs to be rostered everywhere for sure.
Starting point is 00:11:21 Yeah, I think something like a 260, 10 to 12 homers, 20 plus steals is probably a reasonable expectation assuming Harrison Bader stays healthy because obviously that has been a big issue for him. Oh my goodness. Did you see Hunter Green throw up on the mound, Chris? Yeah. It's great. It's hot out there.
Starting point is 00:11:41 Yeah, just like through a fastball, turned around, yacked on the mound. I think Brian Reynolds is in the box and they kind of cut to him and he's like, uh, uh, uh, that was. Apparently Hunter Green also threw up during at some point his previous start. He's been having trouble with the heat, you know, staying hydrated. It was a hot one in here, very humid. So that, that's, that seems to explain. it, you know, overall, it was a pretty bad start for Hunter Green, but given the circumstances, I think it is understandable.
Starting point is 00:12:23 And his velocity was fine, you know, it wasn't a great start, certainly, but I remain pretty optimistic about Hunter Green on the whole. But maybe we can get him like an IV solution before the game next time. Oh my goodness gracious game of the night, the Guardians at the Orioles. back and forth, heavyweight bout between two of the best teams in baseball right now. The Guardians wound up winning 10 to 8. I think the Orioles are on a five or six game losing streak right now, which is not like them, obviously. But Jose Ramirez keeps on mashing, two for five with his 21st home run.
Starting point is 00:12:58 Bow Nailer showing some signs of life recently. He went three for four with a double and three runs over his last five games. He has seven hits and one of those being a home run. Gunner Henderson, the guy looks unstoppable right now. for three with two walks and his 25th home run. He added three runs scored. Anthony Santander hit his 21st home run, his 12th of the month of June,
Starting point is 00:13:20 and Jordan Westberg continued his breakout season. Four for four with a walk in an RBI. He is betting 283 with an 853 OPS. Lots of names here, Chris. Anything to add, maybe on Bow Nailer, right? I think he's just someone to watch. I don't think you need to add him yet
Starting point is 00:13:36 because it's not eye-popping stats or anything, but he's slowly coming. coming around maybe. Yeah, I think in two catcher leagues, like I have Bo Nailer in a couple of spots. And there was one league where I added, I added Ben Rice this week, but I did still start Bo Nailer this week. I'm happy I did based on this performance. But, you know, that's a situation where if you're in a spot where you can roster three
Starting point is 00:14:02 catchers and you're just trying to chase some upside, I think pairing Bo Nailer with, you know, Patrick Bailey is still pretty widely available. why like him quite a bit. Ben Rice has some upside. There's another Hunter Goodman is catcher eligible. He's got seven games at Course Field. I'm okay carrying three catchers when it's three of those four and just seeing what happens over the next couple of weeks. I think there's significant amount of upside across the board with all those.
Starting point is 00:14:32 And that includes Bo Nailer, who remember last year was awful to start when he got called up and then started to get hot as he went on. So maybe it's just, it takes them a little while to get going every season. Maybe it's something there. But I still think there's plenty of upside with Bow Nailer worth chasing. Yeah, I do like the Patrick Bailey call as well. I was updating my infield rankings on Tuesday. And I think I moved Bailey up to 15th or 16th in my catcher rankings. So I'm pretty excited about what he's done so far this season. The stack cast numbers look great as well. I wanted to quickly mention Jose Ramirez and Gunner Henderson, by the way, just their pace number. entering Tuesday. They obviously went up after this one.
Starting point is 00:15:15 Jose Ramirez on pace for 43 homers, 32 steals, 127 runs, 149 RBI. Gunner Henderson on pace for 49 homers, 27 steals, 137 runs, 110 RBI. I know we were talking about a redraft. Maybe we'll do that around July 4th or the All-Star break, something like that, but both of those guys seem like easy. top five, six, seven players rest of season. Yeah. I mean, it's so funny because with Jose Ramirez, it's like, he dropped to like what, the late first, early second round range.
Starting point is 00:15:53 His ADP was 15.4. Yeah. And the, it wasn't like there was really any, there wasn't much change in his production last season. Like the OPS was down 30-ish points. It was just counting. 20, 22. But yeah, the counting stats were way off.
Starting point is 00:16:09 It was weird. And he's at, I think he needs like, what, he have three RBI today. So he needs eight more RBI to match last season's total. And he's played 74 games. He only needs. He needs three homers to match last year's total. Yeah. And it's crazy.
Starting point is 00:16:32 I mean, that's the thing about like a Jose Ramirez is like whenever his draft price drops, when that happens in draft season, you should probably, just take advantage of it because we know how steady he's been. We know that he's on a Hall of Fame trajectory. I don't know if that's a hot take, but that's just what I'm going to say, because, I mean, he hasn't won an MVP yet, but he's probably got like three or four top five finishes. You should just bet on those guys aging really, really well. And Jose Ramirez is absolutely doing that. Yeah, I think the next three or four years will probably be telling on the Hall of Fame case, but he might be on that fringe.
Starting point is 00:17:11 We'll see with Jose Ramirez. Thanks to everyone for watching live. Make sure to hit that like button and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. And if you enjoy the audio podcast, make sure to leave a five-star rating and review on both Apple and Spotify.
Starting point is 00:17:27 It really helps, and we do appreciate it. Let's take our first break, and when we return, we'll hit the news and notes right after this. Welcome back in the news and notes. Kyle Tucker took swings off a tea on Sunday. and could be clear to begin running soon. He's been out since June 4th with a right-chin contusion.
Starting point is 00:17:44 Rangers GM, Chris Young, said that Josh Young, so interesting to say those names so close to each other when they're spelled so differently in the same sentence, but it is what it is. Josh Young is dealing with tendon inflammation and has said a return before the end of this week is ambitious. It's just been a weird start to Josh Young's career. It's just so many injuries have popped up.
Starting point is 00:18:07 when he's played, he's been pretty, pretty good though. Kodi Senga said Tuesday that he expects to begin a minor league rehab assignment next week. He's not likely to return until after the All-Star break. Bo Bichette returned from the IL. He was in the lineup batting leadoff. I did not write down his final numbers. Did he do anything in that game, Chris? Did you see Bobbushet?
Starting point is 00:18:28 Nothing notable. Walked once, scored once. That was it. 0-4-4, 2-4-4, 2-ststststrikeouts, a walk and a run score. for Bo. Edwin Diaz did not appeal his 10-game suspension and began serving it on Tuesday. Nick Ladolo was placed on the 15-day I-L
Starting point is 00:18:45 with a left-finger blister and pretty unfortunate. He's been really good and recently moved inside my top 30 starting pitchers, so don't love that. Brian Wu was placed on the 15-day IL with a right hamstring strain. Teasca Hernandez has missed two straight for personal reasons.
Starting point is 00:19:01 Starly Marte was placed on... He's back with the team, by the way. I think it was unfortunately a in the family. But he was back with the Dodgers on Tuesday. Starly Marte was placing the IL with a right knee bone bruise. He's expected to be sidelined for at least four weeks. And for those who play in NL only leagues,
Starting point is 00:19:22 Tyrone Taylor might matter to you. Nolan Aronado was back in the lineup after missing a pair of games with left forearm soreness. Astros manager Joe Espada said that Justin Verlander has yet to resume throwing. He's been shut down for more than a week with neck discomfort. Christian Encarnacion Strand will undergo season-ending surgery on his right wrist on July 11th. And whoever I make a bold prediction about next year, it just crossed that name off your list. It seems to be the kiss of death when it comes to fantasy because I was pretty excited about Incarnacion Strand.
Starting point is 00:19:56 Things happen, obviously, partially joking, partially not. But yeah, this one sucks. Met's manager Carlos Mendoza said Christian Scott has a good chance for being called up as the team has a stretch of 17 games in 17 days. That begins on Friday. Christian Scott is currently 45% rostered. So if you want to pick them up, I think now is the time to do so. Chris Paddock was placed on the IL with right forearm fatigue.
Starting point is 00:20:21 And there was a report that one of their pitching prospects, David Festa, is a candidate to replace Paddock in the rotation. As soon as Thursday, I think he could get the call to just fill in for Chris Paddock. And Festa, he must have slowed down recently because I know the numbers. were really great early on in the season, but it's a 377 ERA, a 129 whip, 87 strikeouts over 59 and 2 thirds innings. Anything there, Chris?
Starting point is 00:20:47 Would you, who would you rather sash? David Festa or Christian Scott? Probably Christian Scott. My early numbers are a little better across the board. Festa has some control issues. He's had trouble keeping the ball in the yard this year, although that might just be that everybody has trouble keeping the ball in the yard at AAA these days, but I think I would prefer Christian Scott.
Starting point is 00:21:11 I also, I know you've got him a little lower on the rundown, but I'm actually pretty interested in Hayden Bird's song, who I originally read as Harvey Birdman. And he's getting the call to start Wednesday against the Cubs. And he has gotten very little hype. He was like a fringe top 10 prospect for the Giants coming into the season. But I think there's a lot to like here. He's only 22. He's big.
Starting point is 00:21:38 Strikeout numbers have been really good this season. The fastball apparently was one of those like really good shape pitches in college that he then added a couple miles per hour to. He's averaging right around 95, 96 miles per hour with that pitch. He's got a slider cutter curveball change up that are all probably not as good as the fastball. But, you know, it's a full arsenal. So I'm interested to see what Hayden Birdsong again can do. He's only made two starts of AAA.
Starting point is 00:22:07 They haven't been great, but he's a pretty interesting pitching prospect as well. How would you rank the three? Just in terms of stashing for now, Scott Festa and Birdsong. Probably Scott Birdsong Festa. Birdsong, by the way, is being called up to make his Major League debut Wednesday
Starting point is 00:22:26 against the Cubs. And I had the Giants game on. They were talking about it. And they admitted, and by then, I mean the Giants organization, Bob Melvin that it's a little bit early. It's earlier than they would like with Birdsong, but they've just had so many injuries and underperformance.
Starting point is 00:22:43 It feels like every start recently has just been a bullpen day for the Giants. So they need help. And as a result, that's why they are calling Hayter Birdsong up. He's only throwing 90 pitches in a start once this season. I think it was his most recent start through 91. So yeah, that makes sense. And it may not be long,
Starting point is 00:23:01 but it also very much could be a situation where he surprises, and ends up sticking around because he's good enough. A couple other news items, Brandon Lowe has missed three straight due to a broken right pinky toe. Ryan Weathers will be re-evaluated later this week and could begin a throwing program. He's been out since June 7th due to a strained index finger on his pitching hand. Henry Davis will begin a rehab assignment at AA on Wednesday. He's been on the concussion aisle since June 15th. And a few prospect updates.
Starting point is 00:23:32 Jackson Holiday was reinstated from the AAA. and as part of his recovery, Holiday will exclusively play DH for multiple weeks because I believe it was a forearm injury or an elbow injury that he was dealing with. Yeah, so we'll see how he performs in the meantime
Starting point is 00:23:50 getting reinstated at AAA. And the Brewers option, Carlos Rodriguez, back to AAA. He was quite bad in his first three career starts. Worryometer, let's fire it up. One, we are not worried about this player at all. 10.
Starting point is 00:24:04 we are freaking out. Extremely worried, and I realized Garik Cole was part of this segment. We didn't give out a number, Chris. Where would you rank Garik Cole on the Worryometer 1 to 10? I'll go with a 6 for now.
Starting point is 00:24:19 I'm not freaking out, but I'm not totally where I want to be on Garrett Cole. Let's talk about Luis Castillo, Chris. Someone I know you hold near and dear to your heart. He's allowed four plus, earned runs in three of his last four starts. He was at Tampa Bay, which they told me this was supposed to be a good matchup.
Starting point is 00:24:40 So it didn't work out for Luis Castillo. Five and a third. Four runs allowed. Four walks, four strikeouts. He only had nine whiffs on 103 pitches. He is now up to a 379 ERA, a 121 whip. Some things have changed this season. The strikeout rate is down a bit.
Starting point is 00:24:56 The swinging strike rate is down just over two percentage points. The fastball velocity is down one mile per hour from where it was last. year and he is allowing more barrels and home runs over the past two seasons. Less strikeouts means more balls and play which means we're that's why we're probably seeing some of these home runs go out more frequently for Luis Castillo. Overall Chris, where you at on the Worryometer 1 to 10 on Castillo?
Starting point is 00:25:22 I'd say probably a three or a four. The fact that the velocity's been down since last season is a concern for sure. That would be the biggest red flag for me, not that I think Estia was hurt, but just that, you know, his fastball was an elite pitch last year. I think he let all starters in swinging strike rate with that four seamer, 33 percent. That's a massive number for a four seamer. And look, 29 percent, which is where he's at this season. That's still really good. But, you know, the changeup's been a little less effective.
Starting point is 00:25:58 Is that because it's not playing off the fastball as well? you know, maybe there's something there. The sinker has been a bigger problem for him. So I can't say I'm not at all concerned. And that's what I want to say. I want to say I'm not at all concerned about Castillo. Mostly because we do this every year, there's always a stretch for Luis Castillo where it's like,
Starting point is 00:26:20 oh, what's wrong with Luis Castillo? And then he ends up fine. You know, the thing about Luis Castillo, though, that you've always had to keep in mind with him as a fantasy pitcher is, I know he is drafted as a top five, top 10 starting pitcher pretty much every year. He's never really been that guy in terms of run prevention. You know, he always has kind of a higher ERAs than the other guys drafted around him. What Luis Castillo brings to the table is less consistent per start dominance and more projectable volume.
Starting point is 00:26:56 You know, this is a guy who really has only been on the aisle, I think, twice. his career really hasn't missed very much time. That's the thing that, yeah, he's struggling right now, but I still think by the end of the year, the volume's going to be so good that I have a hard time thinking that we're going to look back on this and say, yeah, you made a mistake drafting Louise Castillo. And you're right. This could just be a little bit of a blip. His first three starts of the season, he allowed four earned runs each, and then his next 10 starts. He had a 201 ERA and a 0.97 whip. So he could go on one of those runs again.
Starting point is 00:27:32 He just, he seems a little bit less dominant than he did last year. And that's why I'm with you. I think it's probably like a three or four. I'm not overly concerned, but there's a little bit of something there with Louise Castillo. What about Bobby Miller? He was pulled after just two innings at the White Sox.
Starting point is 00:27:49 Another one, this is supposed to be one of the better matchups in baseball. Two innings, three runs allowed, three walks to one strikeout. he only threw 55% of his pitches for strikes. Similarly to Garik Cole, working his way back from shoulder injury, he's only made five total starts this season. There was three earlier on, two since returning from the IL, where you add on Bobby Miller, 1 to 10.
Starting point is 00:28:13 I'm going to say eight just because he's coming back from a shoulder injury and just hasn't looked right. Like, he's still averaging 97 miles per hour with his fastball in this start. Well, that's a full mile per hour. hour down from where he was earlier in the season and two miles per hour down from where he was last season. So, you know, this is a guy in Bobby Miller that I want to say it's always felt like he's made like, what, 22 major league starts. So it's not like we have a huge sample size, but he is not someone who has gotten the kind of strikeout results that we expected. You know, you watch him and it's like,
Starting point is 00:28:48 man, this should be an overpowering pitcher. And it's kind of like peak Noah Cinderguard. where he was really good, but not quite as good as we expected him to be. And then you start looking at, well, he's lost a couple miles per hour on the fastball. Dave Roberts talked about he just didn't have feel today. You know,
Starting point is 00:29:09 I think the quote was like, changeup was a ball out of his hands. Well, change was been his best swing and miss pitch this season, and he's made it his number two pitch overall. So not having that one, it's going to be hard to survive. I want to be patient, though.
Starting point is 00:29:24 I'm certainly not dropping, Bobby Miller, but I also don't think you can start him for his next start, which is, where is his next start? I think he was a two-star pitcher for this week, so he should line up for another one. I think it's against the Giants. Yeah, I'll just leave it at you probably can't start him right now. I will say wait until Bobby Miller gives you a reason to start him. Let's talk about one hitter who's been slumping in June.
Starting point is 00:29:54 Esoc Paratus, one for five. with his 12th home run here on Tuesday, but so far in the month, 228 batting average, two homers, just a 354 slug, a 645 OPS. The ground ball rate is up. The quality of contact, while it's never good, is even worse so far in the month of June. Chris, where are you at on ESOC Paredes, the Worryometer 1 to 10? I don't know how to talk about this guy. Me neither.
Starting point is 00:30:22 Right? Because like, okay, he's hitting worse. worse. His expected Wobah in the month of June is 2.32. And that's, I mean, that's dreadful. That is unplayable. In April, it was 299, which is not unplayable, but would be one of the worst regular hitters in baseball. And he had a 373 actual Wobah. So I don't, I don't know, like he's not hitting the ball is hard. I don't know if there's been a change in his pull rate because we talk about it every time. We talk about Isop Paredes. He's kind of the poster boy of the pulled flyball revolution. And I don't, I don't see much in his season long numbers to suggest that there's been a
Starting point is 00:31:10 change. So I, I don't think I'm too worried about it. But it's also possible. I mean, we've seen like Kevin Bigio was pulling this trick for a while and Nolan Aronado as well on a on a higher where whether it's losing the trick or just losing the marginal edge that you had, where you go from 86 mile per hour, average X velocity to 83, and all of a sudden, you can't even do the trick anymore. So I worry a little bit about that, but all in all with Predos, I'm probably at like a three or four. Yeah, I was going to say a two or three, even with the bad June numbers,
Starting point is 00:31:49 he's still batting 275 with an 821 OPS, so don't want to paint it completely in a negative light because he has had a useful season. It just might be, he needs to maximize every ounce of pulling the ball in the air to come close to hitting 30 home runs. And, you know, the pull rate is down a little bit, the fly ball rate's down a little bit. Maybe he's a 25 homer hitter instead of a 30 home run hitter,
Starting point is 00:32:14 which makes him an okay fantasy player. It's just not the standout that we saw him to. be last year. Again, that was ESOC Paredes. Let's take our final break and we'll keep that meter running. Let's talk about the dropometer right after this. Welcome back in. Let's fire up the drop ometer now. It's similar thing. One, you're not dropping this player anywhere. 10, you could drop this player in any league anywhere. First up is George Springer, who had a big game here on Tuesday, but he has been awful overall this season. Went three for five with a sixth home run. Previous 17 games before this 103 batting average, 28% strikeout rate, a 325 OPS.
Starting point is 00:32:56 He is still 88% rostered, Chris. Where is George Springer on the dropometer? I was genuinely surprised that George Springer is still 88% rostered because... Same. He's not really an impact bat anymore. The quality of contact has been significantly worse than last season, although not as bad as the overall numbers would make you think. That being said, if you haven't dropped him by now,
Starting point is 00:33:24 you know, we're coming off a good game. I would probably still try to hang on to him. You haven't needed the roster spot yet, right? So I would hang on to him because, you know, the underlying number is 312 expected Wobah overall. It's a far cry from the 332 mark that he had last season, but it's still playable. you know, especially if he is going to continue to run a little bit.
Starting point is 00:33:51 The pace is a little off from last year, but that might just be fewer opportunities more than anything. So I would say probably a two on the dropometer at this point. How many, what is the percentage of leagues on CBS that are three outfielder leagues versus five? I would think it's probably close to half. So then I am putting Springer at a five on the dropometer. think you can drop him in three outfielder leagues. I think that's probably okay,
Starting point is 00:34:19 although the plate discipline is still pretty good for him. So it's not like, it's not like he should be significantly worse in points leagues. And I think a hot week or two could get George Springer right back to the top of the lineup as well. Some names that could be out there in Chalera leagues that I would drop Springer for, Alec Berluson, who we've talked a lot about recently. In a categories league,
Starting point is 00:34:43 Brenton Doyle, If you play in a three outfielder head-to-categories league, Brendan Doyle, I know he's like kind of runs hot and cold, but the skills have been awesome this year. Obviously you play him whenever he's at home. He's 77% rostered. I'm good with that. This one maybe a little bit more controversial,
Starting point is 00:34:58 but hit another home run on Tuesday. Jesse Winker. It's very similar to Jerks and Pro Farr, Chris. I don't expect Jesse Winker to keep doing this all season, but he's been doing it, and he's been much more productive than George Springer. So in a three outfielder league, If Springer is just a hole in your lineup, I think I'd be
Starting point is 00:35:16 alright with that. Yeah, I get that. But on the other hand, if I'm making that move in a three outfielder league, given that the replacement level is so high, I want a bigger swing. You know, like, does that make sense? Like, I feel like you could just sit George Springer. If you just, for whatever reason,
Starting point is 00:35:35 there's just no good outfielders in your league and those guys are on waivers and you need someone to start, maybe I could see that, you know, making the winker for Springer. Springer move, but I think I still expect Springer to be better the rest of the way. Let's talk about Ryan Jeffers. We did mention him last week as part of our ranking segment, and he hit a home run on Tuesday, his 13th home run. His previous 28 games before this one. He was hitting 161 with two homers and a 513 OPS. Jeffers has only started 11 of the past 20 games.
Starting point is 00:36:08 He's still 80% rostered. Chris, where is he on the dropometer 1 to 10? that's the the playing time is where it's really concerning because you know slumps happen but is the slump happening because he was overused early in the season and it's kind of a Sean Murphy 2023 situation where he's just run out of gas and they leaned on him too much that makes it harder to trust or is it just they're sitting in because he hasn't been hot if he gets hot again they'll start playing him more. I could see either one. 80% is probably a little
Starting point is 00:36:45 too high. That means that he's rostered in almost all one catcher leagues and he probably doesn't need to be if he's not a stand out in playing time. I think Jeffers can be closer to a six or seven on a drop meter. Would you drop him for
Starting point is 00:37:01 Patrick Bailey, who we were hyping up earlier? I think that's okay. Yeah, Bailey's got really, really good of contact numbers. He's cut his strikeout rate significantly. He's an elite defensive player. So, yeah, I think Patrick Bailey might just have the playing at time edge on Ryan Jeffers. It's close. I think I lowered Jeffers to 12 or 13. I mentioned where I moved Bailey up to. So I don't think I would do it. I get that the playing time has gone down. I think Jeffers could heat back up. He
Starting point is 00:37:33 still has an 805 OPS for the season. He has 13 home runs. So I think I'm closer to like a one or a two on the drop hole meter. I don't think I drop them in a one catcher league, but I get it if you wanted to just go with the hot hand. Again, it's like the replacement value in a one catcher league. You can you can kind of shuffle through those guys. So I do get that aspect of it. And the last name, I'm pretty sure this one's going to rank very highly. Brian Beow, who got rocked by the Blue Jays, seven earned runs over two and a third. He has a 555 ERA and a 147 whip. Yeah, I mean, I had a little rant the last time we talked about Brian Beio where I wondered why, why he's as rostered as he is before this really, really bad start. And I think we're probably going to see a correction there. Look, I don't think he's hopeless. I think Brian Baye can still be a good pitcher,
Starting point is 00:38:21 but we haven't seen anything at the major league level to justify the amount of faith that fantasy players have been showing in him, right? Like you talk about a guy with a 555 ERA, even before this, it was like 580 something, whose career best is a 380. ERA was like a 440 last year, I think.
Starting point is 00:38:42 Those types of players, even when they're young, don't tend to remain 75% rostered. So, yeah, I think it's totally fine to drop Brian Bae. He's an eight or a nine on the drop of meter. The recipe for him to figure it out is Framber Valdez. You know, Valdez, I know he's a lefty and Brian Bayo is a righty, but just in terms of gets lots of ground balls, doesn't miss a ton of bats, questionable control. but Framber Valdez has found a way to make it work and he does enough to be efficient
Starting point is 00:39:14 and give a ton of innings like that is the mold that Brian Beio needs to kind of make it work and yeah I think he's pretty high on the dropometer I know we kind of recommended him as a two-star pitcher this week and I feel bad about that but yeah this stuff happens and the thing I think about with the Framber comp and where I think Brian Beow comes up short is probably in the command side of things because Bayo is someone who works the edges of the
Starting point is 00:39:47 strike zone really well, keeps the ball down. Even when you make contact, you're going to make weak contact. And that's not necessarily something that Brian Bayo has figured out how to do. I still like the stuff. There are still going to be starts where Brian Bayo is really good. I just think he's much more of a streamer than a must roster pitcher. Yeah, I think that's fair as well. Let's talk Waverwire hitters, and we will rank all of the middle infielders. We spoke about Joey Ortiz earlier. He went one for four with a walk and his seventh home run.
Starting point is 00:40:20 He has a 383 on base percentage as a rookie. It's been pretty impressive what Joey Ortiz has done for the Brewers. I believe he leads off against left-handed pitching as well. Nick Gonzalez had a wake-up game. He was struggling over the past. week, three for four with a run and an RBI, his previous seven games before this one. He was one for 23. The strikeout rate slowly climbing up a little bit.
Starting point is 00:40:45 He expected stats to look pretty good for Nick Gonzalez. Jonathan India remains red hot. Two for two with two walks, two steals, three runs scored. In June, he's betting 361. The two homers, 17 runs scored three steals on 990 OPS for Jonathan India. How would you rank this group, Ortiz, Gonzalez, and India. I think with a view on the long term,
Starting point is 00:41:08 I'd still probably go or tease Gonzalez and India in that order. But this move up to the leadoff spot the last couple of games is very interesting for Jonathan India because he opened the season, I believe, is the lead off hitter for the Reds.
Starting point is 00:41:21 Got off to a miserable start, got moved down in the lineup. But if he's going to be up there, that's potentially very, very interesting. If he can be a 275-ish hitter, with 15 to 20 homers and 15 to 20 steals, all of a sudden you add a 90 run pace on top of that. That becomes a very, very interesting player.
Starting point is 00:41:45 So in a shallower league, I wouldn't drop Ortiz or Gonzalez, Gonzalez more so than Ortiz in terms if I was going to drop one. But I do think India is a solid starter moving forward. You know, it's crazy is India and Ortiz average the same fantasy. points per game on the season. It's 2.5 for both of those guys. So, you know, India is obviously the hotter one right now. So if you wanted to make that argument, just you need to get him on your team because someone else is going to pick him up. I think in a points league, I would go India Ortiz, Gonzalez. Yeah, Gonzalez has the worst plate discipline. So that that'll hold him back.
Starting point is 00:42:23 Just a 4% walk rate. In a categories league, it is a little bit closer. I like that India is too. But I think I would go Ortiz, India, Gonzalez. I'm not completely abandoning. ship on Nick Gonzalez. I like the improvements he's made the season, but Jonathan India does have a, you know, a more established track record than someone like Gonzalez. What if I throw Raphaela and David Hamilton in this group, Chris, because those are names that we've talked a ton about. Do either of those move to the top, Raphaela or David Hamilton? I don't think so. Raphael, especially. I think I'm the low guy on. His underlying numbers are still really, really bad, despite the improved production over the past.
Starting point is 00:43:04 month or so. So I would probably still rank Ortiz, Gonzalez, India. I think it's fine to move Hamilton up in a roto league because of the stolen bases. He really is a standout there in a way that none of these other guys are a stand out anywhere else.
Starting point is 00:43:20 But Raphael is going to be at the bottom in both categories for me. Yeah. I think in roto categories, I moved David Hamilton up to the top of this list. I haven't made this public on the site yet, but 17th at second base for David Hamilton in a Roto League.
Starting point is 00:43:35 He is such a standout. It's heels right now. He's really fun to watch. And yeah, he just offers a completely different skill set. Behind Bryce Terang still? Yes. Yeah, I think I have to rank,
Starting point is 00:43:47 I have to rank seventh. What about Caballero? So that is a great question. I have Hamilton one spot ahead of Caballero. It's a similar skill set. Caballero's playing time has really fallen off. So I think it's all right to drop someone like Caballero for David Hamilton in a California.
Starting point is 00:44:04 categories league if he's still out there. Two names in deeper leagues. Do either of these matter? Mike Tolia of the Rockies has been hitting well since being recalled on June 6th. He's batting 262 with four home runs and an 842 OPS. And Ben Rortvet for those in deeper two catcher leagues, last 12 games, he's batting 359 with three home runs and 14 RBI. Chris, does either one matter in a deeper format? Michael Tolia, Ben Rortvett.
Starting point is 00:44:31 If all the catchers we were talking about earlier, Bo Nailer, Patrick Bailey, Hunter Goodman, Ben Rice, Ben Rice, if they're all gone and you're in a two-catcher league, then sure, Ben Roortfit might matter, but I think it's unlikely he'll matter much more than that. Toglia, it's just he's continued to produce really good numbers at AAA. Obviously, it's an inflated offensive environment and Albuquerque and the PC. Yel. Well, course, Field is also an inflated offensive environment. So it just comes down to how much you want to trust the Rockies continuing to play him. And you can never really rely on that. So I would say, what's your roster 12%? I don't know. I could see 20% being reasonable, but my expectations aren't super high. Yeah, I think 15 team Roto leagues where you have the five outfielder, the corner infielder. Can you stream Tolia at home? I think that's something that's totally fine. Let's talk Waverwire pitchers,
Starting point is 00:45:34 and Zach Lattell was solid up against the Mariners, five innings, two runs, six strikeouts. He had 14 whiffs on 72 pitches. That is a 19.4% swinging strike rate. And he did change things up in this one. He threw more sliders and more splitters. The splitter especially is a really good pitch. So if that's something that Lattel continues to do,
Starting point is 00:45:56 then I think there could be some interest in re-adding him. And look, I don't even. get this off my chest, Chris, because we got a, we got like a, I don't know, two-star review on Apple. Someone yelled at us for telling them to drop Reese Olson and then picking him back up and it's like,
Starting point is 00:46:13 yes, maybe we messed up with Reese Olson. But for someone like Zach Lattel, like if something changes like him throwing his splitter more, then I do think he should re-enter the conversation, right? It's not just like, hey, we're telling you to pick him back up for no reason. Like, something has changed obviously here.
Starting point is 00:46:30 So my bad about Reese Olson, but Zach Lattel, I don't know, maybe it's used. I like Reese Olson. We're going to get things wrong too. I think Reese Olson is a fine pitcher. But like, I don't think that's like, I'm sorry, your season is not hinging on Reese Olson one way or the other. So I, a two star review because we made, all right, we're not getting into it. It's fine.
Starting point is 00:46:57 Zach Lutel, I think is a solid pitcher. I don't know how much. I have in him outside of points leagues because I think he's a lot more valuable as a spark. Yeah. And there are a decent number of sparks, although we've lost a couple lately. So, yeah, I think Zach Lattel is probably a must roster and head-to-head points league. In Roto, strikeouts are going to be pretty if he even if he leans on the splitter and slide or more. So I'm not, I'm not going to say he's must roster. I think he's a matchups dependent guy. I was just going to say, It feels like a matchups play, obviously going up against the Mariners.
Starting point is 00:47:34 They strike out a ton. I think that somewhat explains what we got here from Zach Lattel. What about Kyle Hendricks? He has turned in two strong starts since being re-inserted into the Cubs rotation. He went seven innings, two runs, four strikeouts, 11 whiffs on 100 pitches at the San Francisco Giants. And this is now two starts in a row where he is mixed in the curveball more. And in a small sample of the season, that curveball has been.
Starting point is 00:48:00 been really good for Kyle Hendricks, a 233 expected Wobah, a 35% whiff rate. So this is another one, Chris, where something has changed here for Hendricks. And in deeper formats, he's 14% rostered. Yeah, like 12-team roto leagues are deeper where everyone has to start nine pitchers. I think Kyle Hendricks could matter. He was still good last year. Yeah, it's an uninteresting, an un-interesting, an un- unexciting profile, right?
Starting point is 00:48:32 Like, Kyle Hendricks' best case scenario is Tyler Anderson, right? I think he has better control than Tyler Anderson. We've talked to guys like Kyle Gibson and Michaelis recently, right? Like, you know, Hendrix isn't that mold, I guess. There are always going to be pitchers like this who slide between 30 and 70% roster rate based on whether they've got two starts, whether they've got good matchups, whether they're just rolling right now.
Starting point is 00:49:00 Kyle Gibson is currently rolling. He pitched really well last season for the most part. So yeah, I think he's a decent ad, but it's also one that if you miss out on it, I don't think you're going to regret missing out on Kyle Hendrix. So I would probably rather chase Christian Scott. If we're, you know, if he's available in your league,
Starting point is 00:49:22 Hayden Bird's song, who was the other one we were talking about earlier today? David Festa. David Festa. So like I think I'd rather just go with the mystery box there because Kyle Hendricks is not a boat. Right. Either way, he's, you know, a, I don't know, a scooter or something, scooter, not schooner. I know that was maybe confusing with the boat reference before that.
Starting point is 00:49:44 But, you know, a scooter's a fine way to get around in, you know, a pinch if you don't have a lot of bags and stuff to carry. So he's fine. Is he a razor scooter or one of these? Oh, like a like a little like a lime. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. That's pretty useful. That's a pretty useful scooter. So, yeah, we'll see.
Starting point is 00:50:04 We'll see where Kyle Hendrix goes from here. Let's get into some of the leftovers and making sense of this hot stretch from Hunter Brown, who has turned in seven straight quality starts. This one against the Rockies in Houston, obviously a great matchup. Six shutout innings, two hits, three walks, seven strikeouts. He had 20 whiffs on 94 pitches, 12 on the fastball. The velocity on that fastball was up. It looked awesome.
Starting point is 00:50:30 Last seven starts is a 147 ERA, a 0.88 whip. Chris, only thing I will point out, the matchups in these starts have been amazing. Rockies on the road, White Sox, Tigers, twins, Mariners, and the Angels twice. What do you think about this recent run from Hunter Brown? Look, he's got a 160 ERA, 147 ERA over that seven-start stretch. So of course he's not going to continue.
Starting point is 00:50:58 you doing that. He's not 2019 Jacob de Grom. You know, like that that kind of goes without saying. Even if he faced these kind of matchups the rest of the way, I would not expect Hunter Brown to have a sub 2 ERA. But I also
Starting point is 00:51:14 don't think the matchups just prove that Hunter Brown is a fraud. You know, he has made some changes in his approach, most notably throwing that sinker more, which generated a ton of weak contact today. Six balls in play, 71, 72.3 mile per hour average exit velocity on those six balls in play.
Starting point is 00:51:36 That's become a really good pitch for him. And, you know, he might just have like three good swing and miss pitches around that sinker. And the sinker's not the center piece or anything. You know, it's, he throws it 15 to 20 percent of the time most starts since introducing it. But the four seamer can be a really good swing and miss pitch. It's got the change up. the knuckle curve, even the slider occasionally. So I think, you know, if we set the over under at a 3-5 ERA, I think I'd still take the over the rest of the way. But I think Hunter Brown absolutely should be a must roster pitcher.
Starting point is 00:52:15 And as someone, I'd be a little surprised at this point if we were dropping the rest of the way. Yes. And I do agree with you, by the way. I didn't mean to sound like the pessimist on Hunter Brown, just pointing out those matchups were really good. After this start, his Exfip is 353 and entering this start, his expected ERA was 344.
Starting point is 00:52:35 So I think amid 3s ERA, I think you're pretty spot on there with Hunter Brown rest of season. If you picked him up, just continue to roll because he's been really, really good. Did you realize these bats were heating up? I've got one, two, three, four, five names.
Starting point is 00:52:51 Josh Lowe over his last 11 games, batting 324 with three homers and four steals Byron Bucksson last 12 games, batting 372 with three homers and two steals. Tyler O'Neill, 15 games since coming off the IL, 333 batting average, five homers, a 1088 OPS. Brian Reynolds in June, batting 360 with six homers and a 1081 OPS, and Vlad Jr. It was all in the hair, Chris. Since cutting the hair, six games, 370 batting average, three homers, three doubles, 10 RBI.
Starting point is 00:53:27 anything to add on this group. Yeah, I did notice that Byron Buxton and Josh Lowe were playing better lately because I have them on pretty much all of my teams. I was surprised Buxton is still 89% rostered though. Yeah, especially with how many points leagues are out there because he's someone that, you know, I do have in a handful of points leagues. And I don't know if I've been able to start him really at any point, not just because he's been bad, but because like I think one of them I have,
Starting point is 00:53:55 I think I have Matt Olson and Vladimir Guerrero on that team. I'm not going to see either of those guys to put Byron Bucks in a utility spot. So yeah, I think it's a little surprising that he's 89% roster. But again, it's kind of like, oh, I'm blanking on the pitcher we talked about earlier today. I don't know. If you haven't dropped him by now, I guess is the way I would say it. now you don't have a reason to drop Byron Buxton, so I wouldn't. The one, Vladimir Guerrero, you know, I understand he always has good expected stats,
Starting point is 00:54:36 and the fact that he continues to have good expected stats might mean less because we assume he's just going to continue to underperform, but I guess the question is, what if he doesn't, right? Like, what if he had this long stretch where he underperformed and that carried over to the start of the season, 363 expected Wobah 308 Wobah in April. Since then, he's been a lot closer to where he's supposed to be. Not quite, you know, the elite 400x Wobah that he's had since May 1st. But what if he's someone who can get to 85% of his expected stats? And that's a 370 Wobah.
Starting point is 00:55:20 I don't think that's unreasonable. That would still be assuming he's one of the outlier underbrose. performers and can still be a significant difference maker. So I think you missed any by low window that might have been there for Vladimir Guerrero. I don't think it's a sell high window though. Some other quick leftovers. I've got five pitchers here. Two that pitched very well. One was okay. And two, that were not. Any thoughts on scubal who was great against the Phillies? Seth Lugo, awesome against the Marlins. Kevin Gosman, quality start at the Red Sox,
Starting point is 00:55:54 but still kind of meh. And then two who were pretty bad, Hunter Green and Mackenzie Gore. I guess you could just say that they're high variance pitchers, but anything to add on that group of five. Okay, there was like some talk about Terrick Scouble and like regressing before this start. And like there was like, oh, he's taking a step back.
Starting point is 00:56:15 And it was like three starts where he was slightly less dominant than normal. I still think he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now. So no concerns with Terrick Scouble. Seth Lugo, I still expect significant regression. His XERA is still, was still above four or five. And during this start, I think he's probably closer to a four ERA than a three ERA pitcher. Gosman, I think is probably closer to a four ERA than a three ERA pitcher. And I think he's probably just a guy.
Starting point is 00:56:47 There's going to be some high points. There's going to be some low points. But at this point, I think he's just a. I don't think Kevin Gosman is a must start pitcher anymore, I will say. And then Gore, we talked about green a little bit earlier. I think the environmental factors and the fact that he wasn't feeling well, I think it helps explain his struggles there. Gore's been a little iffy lately.
Starting point is 00:57:11 I know the whip is super high for the season. It's like up to 1.4. I believe now that's pretty bad. And look, maybe it's just he's a strikeout specialist who, disappoints with his ratio stats. I still think that's a lot better than what we expected. I still think there's the whip, especially there's room for growth.
Starting point is 00:57:34 I wouldn't expect a 1.4 moving forward. CJ Abrams has low-key been pretty bad defensively at shortstop this season. I think he's first percentile and outs above average. And he's just really struggled with like a lot of what should be routine plays. especially that I think is probably hurting McKenzie Gore and the Nationals pitchers. So that's one factor, but I still feel McKenzie Gore is a must roster pitcher. If not, a must start one.
Starting point is 00:58:08 Some other hitting leftovers, Bryce Harper on fire right now, two for four with his 20th home run. Same thing for Freddie Freeman, his 12th home run. And the June numbers have been awesome for both of those guys. Quickly, Chris, who would you rather have rest of season, Bryce Harper or Freddie Freeman? I have Freddie Freeman ranked ahead, and I can't think of a good reason to move Bryce Harper ahead, but they're both top 10 players overall for me in both formats, I believe.
Starting point is 00:58:38 So it's splitting hairs. Well, I move Bryce Harper up to number one in my first base rankings ahead of Freddie Freeman. 3.9 fantasy points per game versus 3.4 for Freeman. the expected Wobah is higher for Harper this season than it is for Freeman. Look, these things can flip, especially for someone like Freeman who just goes up run. Freeman's red hot, and I'm sure that number's a lot higher in June than it was before. And obviously, the track record for both of these guys incredible. So I'm not going to argue one way or the other, really.
Starting point is 00:59:12 Yeah, it's razor thin regardless. Aaron Judge, well, you know, the Yankees had a rough one, but Aaron Judge and Juan Soto did not. They combined three for six. two homers, six RBI, three walks, and Judge hit his 29th home run, Soto hit his 19th, and Shohay Otani, two for four with his 24th home run. Quick thought here, Chris. Who would you rather have for the season? Number one spot, Otani or Judge? It feels like it's between those two guys. I believe I actually have had Bobby Witt as my number one player in Roto because of the steals, but he's not running a crazy amount, so maybe that's overrating him,
Starting point is 00:59:51 Judge and Otani are two and three. And I think they're probably certainly closer to being number one than either is to number four. I would probably give the edge to Otani, and I think it just comes down to Judge's injury history, if you have to split hairs between them. Yeah, I think that's fair. Kutel Marte has been awesome.
Starting point is 01:00:14 Two for four with his 16th home run. He entered Tuesday as a top four second baseman in both head to head points and in Roto. and a crazy game for jerks and pro far got into a shouting match with cabot ruiz in the first inning then got hit by a pitch by mackenzie gore later in the game he hit a grand slam
Starting point is 01:00:31 it was just an emotional game some back and forth and pro far just keeps doing it man he's up to 54 rbii and 898 ops on the season so shout out to pro far great i mean i can't even say bounce bag it's like breakout season career year for jerks and pro far uh some bullpen updates
Starting point is 01:00:51 For the Guardians, Emmanuel Class A, struck out one for his 25th save. For the Dodgers, Evan Phillips struck out one for his 13th. Nice to see him back in that ninth inning. For the Marlins, Tanner Scott gave up a hit, but he picked up his 10th save. For the Brewers, Trevor McGill was unavailable. Elvis Poguero struck out one for his second save. For the debacks, Paul Seawald allowed a hit, but picked up his 10th. For the Padres, Robert Suarez, entered with a three-run lead.
Starting point is 01:01:18 He gave up an unearned run, but picked up his 20th. and for the Angels, Carlos Estevez struck out two for his 15th save. Can I add a bullpen note as well? Yes. The freaking Cubs bullpen is so bad that they blew a Camillo-Douval
Starting point is 01:01:35 save opportunity in this one. They're so bad that they're ruining other teams closers. Camillo-davall, I think, was ready to pitch the ninth. They had a two-run lead. Which one of their terrible pitchers? Oh, Colton Brewer.
Starting point is 01:01:51 Colton Brewer. Who I picked up in an N-O-only league this week. Gave up two runs in this one. Yeah, that's annoying. Camillo Duvall should have had a save opportunity here. That's dumb. It is. It's very dumb.
Starting point is 01:02:06 To stream or not to stream on Wednesday, and I believe yesterday we gave out the Spencer's Turnbull at the Tigers and the Arroghetti versus the Rockies. And if we're looking for one more, I don't love anyone else I Bird song in his debut Yeah I mean it's the debut
Starting point is 01:02:30 So it could be one of those The the hitters don't know anything about him They're not used to him I could see that being okay But I certainly don't want to stake my reputation On it Are the Padres good against lefties
Starting point is 01:02:46 They are 23rd in Wobah against lefties DJ hers could work at the Padres. I just wish his last start hadn't been at Coors so I could like know something more because he had that crazy good start against the Marlins pitched a course field was okay
Starting point is 01:03:01 and now it's just like I have no idea I could see a good start there though. On Thursday there are very limited options as a smaller slate maybe I'll just throw a few names out there you tell me Jordan Hicks against the Cubs Andrew Abbott at the Cardinals, Miles Michaelis versus the Reds. It's not in Cincinnati.
Starting point is 01:03:24 Yeah, Michaelis and Abbott are the only two that I think I like. Just Hicks has not gone six innings since April. All right. We're going to wrap there. What is happening? Can I wrap this show up? Oh, my gosh. All right, let's try this again.
Starting point is 01:03:40 We are going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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