Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Yoshinobu Yamamoto Signs with the Dodgers! - Emergency Podcast (12/22 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:03 Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Super Team, Assemble. Welcome in to an emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. Very late on Thursday, December 21st. I am Frank Stanfield, joined by Scott White, and we've been waiting patiently to find out where Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto would sign, and it turns out he'll be joining Shohe Yotani and Tyler Glass now on the Los Angeles Dodgers. What is the contract, you ask?

Starting point is 00:00:29 Just a cool 12-year's 320. $25 million, which gives Yamamoto the largest contract for a pitcher in MLB history, beating out Garrett Cole by a mere $1 million. It's funny how that works usually at, huh? Anywho, some quick background, Scott, and then I'll let you get into your spiel here on Yamamoto, 25 years old. He's been a phenom the past, really his whole career, but you look at the past three years in particular. He has had an ERA under 1.7 each of those years, winning the Sauer.

Starting point is 00:01:03 Mora Award, which is Japan's version of the Sai-Young and the league MVP in each of the past three years. So just amazing stuff, joining an awesome team, great run support, your immediate reaction, Yamamoto to the Dodgers. Well, a couple other tidbits to describe Yamamoto's greatness. You mentioned three consecutive MVP awards in the Pacific League in Japan. The last player to do that to win three consecutive Pacific League MVP awards was Itgeros Suzuki. So, you know, it's not like that's a common thing in Japan. It's something that hasn't been done in a couple decades. And it was done by a pitcher this time.

Starting point is 00:01:46 Yamamoto's numbers during that three-year period, 9.5K per 9.8, 0.88 whip, a 142 ERA over a three-year period. And a couple of those years, he exceeded 190 innings. So, like, he's proven durable on top of everything else. When we've talked about Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the past in recent weeks, we've referenced that scouting report, Enoceris. A pitcher analyst extraordinaire, Enosaris, wrote for the athletic just a couple of weeks ago. And the way he did it was he broke down the individual pitch characteristic. for Yamamoto, kind of making comps for each of his pitches.

Starting point is 00:02:35 And it reads like one of those articles that come out during like slow news periods where what if we could assemble the perfect pitcher? It would have the fastball of this guy, the splitter of this guy. Well, that actually sounds like the way, you know, Sarish was describing Yamamoto. He compared his splitter to Kevin Gosman's, which is like the gold standard for that pitch. She compared his curveball to Max Fried and Seth Lugo. He compared his command to Zach Eflin and George Kirby, two pitchers who, I mean, walks per nine last year.

Starting point is 00:03:15 Zach Eflin was 1.2 walks per nine, and George Kirby was 1.0.9. Let all the majors did Kirby. And that's what, you know, Sarah's compared Yamamoto's command to. And that's not even to speak of the fastball, which peaks at 99 miles per hour and has the rising effect that teams are looking for these days. A swing and miss offering in its own right. And then there's a cutter as well. So like Yamamoto, it sounds unfair, basically, that somebody like this could exist.

Starting point is 00:03:54 And, you know, I guess that explains why the numbers. in Japan were so phenomenal, why he comes so decorated. And get this. He's done all this, Yamamoto has. Before even really entering his prime, he just turned 25 years old in August. So, I mean, I guess that's the justification for giving the 12-year deal. Still an awfully long time for a pitcher. I mean, Garrett Cole's deal was over nine years.

Starting point is 00:04:23 This is over 12 years. But, you know, he won't even be 40 by the end of it. will Yamamoto. So it's of course an unknown how that's all going to translate to the majors. There are a lot of complicating factors. But, I mean, we saw what Kodai Senka did last year with much clearer flaws than Yamamoto has and not as complete an arsenal, not nearly as good at command as Yamamoto has. And, you know, he was great, was Kodai Senga. He was somebody who wanted to start basically every time out, at least over the final four months or so. And I have him as a top 15 pitcher now going into this upcoming season

Starting point is 00:05:09 based on what Kodai Senga did as a rookie. So if that's what Senga became in that first year adjusting to the majors, what's Yamamoto going to be? I mean, the sky's the limit. I could understand anyone ranking him as high as third. It seems ahead of Strider, ahead of Garrett Cole. Yeah, that's a bridge too far. But it's understandable to me if you wanted to take Yamamoto third among starting pitchers.

Starting point is 00:05:36 I'm going to play it more cautiously than that. I think there's a clear top seven, including Cole and Strider, Kevin Gosman, who was one of those pitchers. You know, Sarah's comp. Compared to Yoshinobi Yamamoto, he's my number three pitcher. And, you know, there's Corbyn Bermen. Zach Allen, Luis Castillo, Zach Wheeler, like all of those guys,

Starting point is 00:06:01 they're just so bankable at that highly volatile position that I'd rather safeguard against the unknowns of Yamamoto, Yoshinomi Yamamoto in his first year in the majors. I'd rather safeguard against that by taking one of those guys over him. And you know, I love Terek Scoopal,

Starting point is 00:06:19 so that's going to be hard for me to justify as well. But my point is Yamamoto is right in that group. If you plan on drafting him in 2024, you have to draft him as if he already is a true ace. And it would hardly be a shock if he lived up to it. Yeah, look, massive contract here for Yamamoto, 12 years. I think in part, because he's 25 years old, we just don't see 25-year-old pitchers make it to the market here, basically ever. So obviously, that's part of the reason. I think the Dodgers also wanted to bring down that AAV, obviously over 12 years.

Starting point is 00:06:57 I think it comes out to like $27 million per year, which again is not as high as like a Garrickole has gotten in the past. But it's still a massive contract for Yamamoto. I did want to put some numbers to that article that you mentioned from Enosaris of the Athletic. Some of those comps that he made, just putting numbers to it. The fastball sits 95 miles per hour, topping out at 99. that was data from the WBC and the physical characteristics of the pitch would make it a 90-second percentile fastball.

Starting point is 00:07:28 The splitter earned a Stuff Plus rating of 155 in the WBC. Last year in Major League Baseball, there was no splitter that had a Stuff Plus rating of even 140. So just to put that in perspective, again, 155 for Yamamoto splitter, no pitcher in baseball with a 140 among starting pitchers. And then the curb ball, as you mentioned, elite spin rate and stuff plus rating

Starting point is 00:07:52 that's similar to like Merrill Kelly and Seth Lugo. It is worth putting that into the context of the balls feel different between the two leagues. I believe the ball in Japan that they use is tackier. So that would allow for more spin. So that is something to keep in mind just because it was far, it would have been far away the highest spinning splitter.

Starting point is 00:08:18 That's the number you cited. Well, it was stuff plus. And it was from the WBC. I don't know that they were, were they using pre-tag baseballs in the WBC. Oh, that's a good point. Yeah. Yeah. I don't even know the.

Starting point is 00:08:29 That's true. Okay. Forget what I just said. But no, that, no, it's still a worthy point from like, that is part of what he's adjusting to. Yeah, I'm not even sure more spin would be a good thing for a splitter. So just forget all that. But it is a different, like the, the way the ball actually feels in the hand is going to be

Starting point is 00:08:47 different coming from one league to another, which is part of, part of the, the unpredictability of making that shift, how well will he adjust to it? Will his stuff play exactly the same? Those are things we can't really know until we see it in action. But that data from a World Baseball Classic makes it feel safer than it otherwise would.

Starting point is 00:09:06 Yeah. Let's take a quick break when we return. We've told you all the amazing things about Yamamoto. Let's maybe talk a little bit about the downside, what the ADP looks like because that has been on the rise. We'll talk about all that right after this. Welcome back in again, Yoshinobu Yamamoto signing with the Dodgers 12 years, $325 billion. We talked about all the amazing stats and the pitches and the characteristics of those pitches. I think one of the clear negatives, Scott, is the size.

Starting point is 00:09:34 Maybe not, but I guess that's something that people could point to. Yamamoto is listed at 5 foot 10. And again, there have been pitchers that have succeeded at that height or even less than that in the past. But it is something that, you know, someone might point to and say, Okay, that could be a potential downside. You pointed out his workloads. He's thrown 170 plus innings three years in a row. He's thrown 190 plus in two of the past three years.

Starting point is 00:09:58 So maybe that isn't an issue. And, you know, the K per 9, right over a strikeout per inning. Is that necessarily going to translate right away? I have some questions about that. Maybe I shouldn't, given like, everything we just talked about. But I think, I think I'm right in saying this. I think strikeout rates tend to be higher in the majors. Oh, they are.

Starting point is 00:10:17 They are. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So that's... Do you worry at all about... It could get even better is the point. Like the one part of Yamamoto's stat line that you may kind of be like, is that 9.5K per 9 over the last three seasons. But it's likely to go up rather than down in the majors.

Starting point is 00:10:34 I did quickly look at Kodai Senga too because his last three years in Japan, it was 10.9K per 9.4, 9.7. and then his first year in the majors year, 10.9. So it actually went up from where it was the past two years in Japan before Kodai Shinga get here. Any worries about the size, Scott, 5'10 for Yamamoto? Long term, I could see it being an issue. But like I said, he had back-to-back years with 193 innings, 2021, 2022. And then in 2023, you threw 171 innings, which is still an awfully big workload for today's game.

Starting point is 00:11:13 and I take that as a good sign. I mean, it may catch up to him eventually, but I feel like that, I feel like we should take, given the way pitchers are handled these days where you get all of these hybrid roles, guys following openers, guys working four innings at a time,

Starting point is 00:11:31 max effort, and maybe never breaking through to true starting pitcher status. They may have all the talent in the world, but they don't get that chance, really, to break through and become the kind of start. starting pitcher, we need them to be in fantasy.

Starting point is 00:11:45 If a guy's proven he can do that, I take that as a good sign more than in the past we might have looked at that workload as a sign of trouble. Injuries could always happen. The changes in the field of the baseball could lead to an injury for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he's proven to be durable so far. And certainly from a redraft context, you're drafting your team for 2024 and then drafting a new team and completely new team in 2025. I don't think, I don't think the injury risk is worth worrying about. Let's talk about this price tag. Scott, the ADP on Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It's on the rise.

Starting point is 00:12:27 And I thought it was just like a December thing. Okay, people are learning more about Yamamoto. It really just coincides with that article that was released by Enosaris, which we've talked a lot about, just breaking down the characteristics of each of his pitches. And it's so crazy, if you look at before that article came out, the ADP for Yamamoto was 74.5 as the 22nd starting pitcher off the board. Since it was released on December 12th, 60.1 as the 14th starting pitcher off the board. So moving up, 14 spots and eight pitcher spots for Yamamoto up to SP 14. What do you think about the price tag? I mean, I did the same thing in my own rankings for the same reason.

Starting point is 00:13:10 It was basically that exact same start point and end point, Yamamoto and my rankings. And frankly, now that he's with the Dodgers of all teams and we know he's going to get all the win potential that comes with that. I'm tempted to move them up even more as I was laying out earlier in this podcast where, I don't know, there's the seven, there's Tyler Glass now who's also joining the Dodgers. There's Terrick Scuba who I like. I might move Yamamoto up to 10th now. Who do you have just ahead of Yamamoto? It would be Scoobal. No, you already have him at 10?

Starting point is 00:13:41 Currently. Yeah, currently. Okay, so currently, I believe I have Yamamoto 16th prior to making this change. Give you just a second to pull up the spreadsheet here. Logan Webb is currently who I have directly ahead of Yamamoto. And then ahead of him is Freddie Peralta. I feel like I got to take Yamamoto over him. And then ahead of that is Kodi Isanga, who, you know, I was just saying is flawed.

Starting point is 00:14:09 compared to Yamamoto. So I feel like I got to take Yamamoto ahead of him too. There's Pablo Lopez, Cole Reagan, who I'm higher on than the consensus. Blake Snell is 10th. So Blake Snell or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Frank, who are you thinking there? I think I'll take Yamamoto,

Starting point is 00:14:27 but I also think I'm just going to have Blake Snell a little bit lower than you. I don't think I would take Yamamoto ahead of. I know you'll have Cole Reagan's lower. So who do you think you won't take him ahead of? I was going to say, I don't think I would take him ahead of Pablo Lopez. I think that's kind of, but being around Terrick Scubel and Glassnow, I feel like that kind of makes sense, right?

Starting point is 00:14:46 Because there is some risk with those guys. You know, we haven't seen them do it over, you know, 150 plus innings in the past. We haven't seen Yamamoto in the majors yet. So it kind of feels like that's the right range for him to fall into. So somewhere in that like Glass Now, Scoobo, Pablo Lopez, Yamamoto, yeah, I think probably like 10 to 12. I think that makes sense as a rank. banking for him. In case you're wondering, what does the Dodgers rotation look like at the moment? So we know they traded for Tyler Glass now. Now they signed Yamamoto. Walker Bueller is coming back

Starting point is 00:15:18 from his second Tommy John surgery. Bobby Miller is their SP4. Think about that. Like just a few weeks ago, Bobby Miller was their SP2. Now he's their SP4. And Emmett Sheehan pencilled in as their SP5. And, you know, they still have some depth pieces. They can, you know, they could kind of go with Chehan and Ryan Yarbrough if they want to. Whatever. Either way, no matter how you look at it. This rotation is amazing. And guess what? It's going to be even better in the future

Starting point is 00:15:43 when they get Shohei Otani back next year as a pitcher. So, oh my goodness. Just to think about that. I mean, the Dodgers' biggest flaw last year was their starting rotation and they won 100 games. And now they've turned that flaw into a strength. I think if there is a downside to this signing, this Yamamoto signing for fantasy purposes,

Starting point is 00:16:05 it's that the Dodgers have a lot of interesting young arms. that they introduced over the course of last season as they were struggling to fill out their rotation. And now they're blocked from me. I imagine Emmett Sheehan has more or less locked up that fifth starter job because he was the most impressive of those who still remain. Ryan Pepio, of course, was moved in the Tyler Glass Now deal. But now there's no opportunity for Gavin Stone to break in on opening day.

Starting point is 00:16:34 Or Kyle Hurt, who I liked a lot and talked about in our last podcast. looking at at looking at pitcher prospects Nick Faso is another one yeah they got some names they got some names yeah

Starting point is 00:16:50 and their draft value will go down in response to this since there's not the opening but I will point out Walker Bueller's coming back from two Tommy John his second Tommy John surgery

Starting point is 00:17:04 Tyler Glass now is not exactly a model of durability himself, career high 120 innings this past year. So there will be opportunities for those younger pitchers still. At some point, Clayton Kershaw is going to come back. We can't forget that. He's a free agent, actually, Scott. And well, I think the expectation is he'll...

Starting point is 00:17:25 He probably will sign with the Dodgers, but it's, yeah, it's not a guarantee, I guess. Yeah. But that would make sense, right? Like, they could have Emmett Sheehan just kind of empty the clip and be their fifth starter for the first half of the season, and then they bring in Kershaw and he's just their SP5 for the second half. It's crazy. And it could work out that way. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:17:49 So, I mean, I was just thinking as you were saying that, like, okay, so Yamamoto, Glassnow, Bueller, Bobby Miller, and next year, they're going to have Shohei Otani to add to the rotation. Disgusting. Ooh. Man. Yeah. Look, it's a good time to be a Dodgers fan. I know a lot of fans of the game are going to complain, super team this, that, look, in baseball,

Starting point is 00:18:16 there's still a lot of variance. The best team does not always win, so I don't want to hear any of that. I'm a Yankees fan, and yes, I'm upset that they didn't get Yamamoto, but it's not just the best team always wins in baseball. In fact, it rarely ever happens that way. On paper, they should win. They are the betting favorites to win the World Series, but it doesn't always work out that way, Scott. So let's see how the games play out and see how every team looks by the time we get to the playoffs.

Starting point is 00:18:38 Who's left on the market? in case you're wondering, in case you are a fan of the Yankees, the Mets, the Phillies, the Red Sox, all these teams that missed out. Blake's Nell, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga, who is also coming over from Japan, a little bit older, 30 years old, left-handed pitcher, doesn't throw as hard. But by everything I've read and, you know, watch some scouting videos on him, seems like he's a pretty accomplished pitcher as well. Marcus Stroman is out there, Lucas Geelito, and then we have the trade market,

Starting point is 00:19:03 which features Dylan Seas, Shane Bieber, and maybe Corbyn's. I've read some stuff. It sounds like maybe the Brewers might be pulling back a little bit on shopping Corbyn Burns, but my expectation is that Dylan Seas will be traded this offseason and probably Shane Bieber.

Starting point is 00:19:18 So there still are some pitchers out there, Scott, and lots to happen still. I mean, so hopefully this will kind of set things off and we can get the rest of the Free Asian Market movie. Yeah. I think this was holding it up. The fact that Blake Snell is the scob, like Blake Snell's the biggest.

Starting point is 00:19:37 name left, right? The fact he's a Scott Boris client. It wouldn't surprise me if that goes on a couple more months. So it may still be slow moving, but this is a big roadblock, I guess, that has now been cleared for more off-season activity to happen. All right. Well, again, the big news, Yoshinobu Yamamoto signing with the Dodgers $325 million. We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for watching and listening to Fantasy Baseball today. And we'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.

Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Yoshinobu Yamamoto Signs with the Dodgers! - Emergency Podcast (12/22 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

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