First Things First - Chiefs vs. Cowboys, Joe Burrow vs. Lamar Jackson, Nick’s Tiers, BUD List, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks

Episode Date: November 26, 2025

(0:00) Mahomes vs. Dak, Will Joe burrow outplay Lamar Jackson? (25:32) BUD List (39:44) Bears vs. Eagles preview, Can Philly get back on track? (48:38) Nick’s Tiers (01:08:31) Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks (01:25:17) Packers or Lions need a W more? (01:29:27) Packed Stats, What would a win over the Eagles mean for Caleb Williams? (01:51:06) Lamar Jackson vs. Joe Burrow, Mahomes or Dak more trustworthy?  (02:01:46) Who will be the MVP of Thanksgiving?  (02:11:12) Who is actually good in the NFL? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Taping live from New York City. It's the show that is wishing you a very happy Thanksgiving. A day early, but since we're not working tomorrow, we're breaking out all of the segments today. Yes. Every single one. It'll be power packed. We've done that before. We've done it before.

It went great. Did it, though? It got a huge number. Did we really? It's a wild. It got a huge number. Also, our regular Wednesday. franchise tiers.

A little controversy. Why? One of the members of the committee who I won't name. Marshall. No, no, no. Marshall fought against it, thank goodness. Because he was trying to get in Marshall's territory about tier names.

He wanted to be like the best team should be the turkey and the second best team the ham, the third best. I said, yeah, we're not a dumb show. You did that last year. Exactly. First hour or first thing. First. Today, that did not go know.

A game that might set the viewing record for a regular season game. Well, Patrick Mahomes call upon the power of the Bud List against the Cowboys tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile, fresh edition of the hottest segment in all of sports. Upset Alert. Does Joe Burrow have the Ravens on Upset Alert? And finally, who should be thankful for a spot at the top of the best segment in all of sports? The committee's tears alongside. alongside Chris Broussard and Kevin Wilde's.

How did the committee meeting go outside of that? Oh, it went great. It went great. There is a very clear number one right now in the NFL. Patriots. Penit to. Incorrect. And thank you, Brew.

There have been enough eliminations at this point. We can really hone in on the 20-ish teams that are still alive. Okay. We're starting with, I lifted the ban on puns today for the right. The main course. Chiefs in Dallas. Mahomes are going to cook up this Dallas defense that hasn't proved of late

while Dak tries to carve up a Chief's defense that just shut down the Colts. Here's Dak on Mahomes. Take a listen. At the end of the day, obviously, talent jumps out, but you watch a guy who plays with pure passion who'll do anything it takes to win. I mean, on the sideline, right, he's not necessarily always running out of bounds,

trying to make the extra play, never giving up on a play, has the ability to throw it. it back across his body. He's just, he does it all right. And what I respect most is just his will to win. And like I said, you can, you see it. He'll do anything and everything it takes. He's a great guy.

It's an odd question to ask you. And this would be a shocking upset and an amazing start to this show. Who would you rather have, Mahomes or Dak? So these are the types of questions that make me mad. Because this is where when I get my hair up and say, I think that we pretend or we say, well, Patrick's in a different class, like he's judged by a different standard

and all this because of all its accomplishments. It is then, to me, contradicted by not only is this a very popular question this week, there is seemingly almost a, and not unanimous, but 80, 20 answer. Well, obviously it's DAC. I mean, look at DAC's numbers this year. look at what the Cowboys offense has done.

I said the other day I thought that was second team all pro quarterback. And this is where I, in 2009, I think it would have been ridiculous, even though that year, Philip Rivers had way better numbers than Tom Brady. If they were going into a game that both teams late in the season really needed, both teams for the most part healthy, like, you know, nobody. of major substance. Chiefs are missing their right guard. Trey Smith is a good player.

Noah Gray, but it's not one team totally undermanned. Who would you rather have? I'd rather have the guy who's in the discussion for not only greatest quarterback ever, but in a two-man discussion for greatest big-game quarterback ever over a guy who the biggest question mark about him, fair or not, is big game performance. I don't care how good C.D. George Pickens are. And so for me in a game both teams need where both teams are coming off very like almost

carbon copy type of wins, home victories come from behind against teams they're chasing, stirring late victories. I will take Patrick Mahomes to find a way and I would rather have Patrick Mahomes on Thursday than Dak or Josh or Lamar or anybody because he's the right answer to these. questions. Well, look, the numbers this year, we all know DAC's numbers have been better. You see on the screen, second and pass rating, Mahomes is 16th. All right, so barely above league average. I think one point

ahead of league average. Here's the thing, though, Nick, it's not just this year. Let's look at the last three years. Statistically, DAC is way better, you know, in everything. Touchdown percentage is higher. Obviously, passer rating. Yards is close, but, you know, he's better.

Not way better than everything, but he's been better over the last three seasons than my homes. So that said, give me Patrick. Yeah. I mean, he said, give me Patrick. Of course. And backs against the wall, must win.

Everybody's watching on Thanksgiving Day. Huge game. Patrick's home stadium that he's never played in. Like in the, he's from there. It played there in college and in high school. Yeah, I mean. You do, there's no question.

And Nick said it. Dak, as great as he's been in the regular season in some of these seasons, his playoff performances have not been great. And Mahomes, as great as he's been in the- Huh? It's not the playoffs. It is. This is a playoff game.

This is essentially. It is a huge game. If Dallas loses, they're probably done. If the Chiefs lose, they might be done. This is as much of a regular season playoff game as you can pretty much. Right, KW isn't that what your athletic playoff predictor tells us? I haven't gone through everything on the athletic playoff predictor, but these are our important games. I think the Lions game is actually probably more important.

I bet you the phrase playoff game has been uttered within both franchises. Dust just told us if they lose, they're down to 6%. So playoff adjacent, right. They're only at like 13 right now. Can I make the argument again? But here, let me show you something. All right. This is Mahomes and DAC in playoff games.

Thank you. This is, do their numbers improve in the playoffs over their regular season career numbers? Dax playoff numbers go down in every single category. Mahomes go up. So don't get me that what playoffs, you're playing better teams. They're supposed to go down.

Mahomes just go up. So in a huge game, I mean, and this is no slight on Dak, but he ain't Patrick. I totally, I think this is a fair point about big games. I don't want to be argumentative. No, I want to disagree, but not be disagreeable. It's not a playoff game.

No, but it's just Thanksgiving. Okay, go ahead. And we've done this. We like to do this Mahomes or the other quarterback question. We kick it around. And a lot of times, it's like, remember what Patrick Mahomes did yesterday? Last week. What about Sunday?

Right. What about that? What about two Sundays ago? No, I get it. Sunday, he was. Okay. He threw an interception at the goal line and no touchdowns. No, I'm asking the game winning or 20 points in regulation. KW. I'm just asking you this. If we did this question, who would you rather have Sunday?

Mahomes or Daniel Jones? I would have taken Mahomes. Well, okay, but all of the arguments for taking DAC would have applied to Daniel Jones. All the arguments. Okay. If we did, Bo, was that not a big game? No. Bo Nicks versus Patrick Jones? Bo Nicks out playing him. Was Josh Allen? Was Josh Allen? big game, Josh Allen out played him. Was the Prince a big game? Not really, but the Prince out played him.

Jalen Hertz out played him at home. With needing to avenge the Super Bowl, Jalen Hertz outplayed him. After you lose the Super Bowl. How about Josh or Jared golf? Like, Justin Herbert outplayed him. Like the idea that a quarterback who is not reputational as good as Patrick Mahomes can't

out playing at home. None of those games were as big as this. The Broncos game was huge. They need the Bronx. I'm telling, if the Chiefs lose this game. I know what the numbers will say. They might miss the playoffs. Strong possibility they miss the playoffs. Can I do the quick home

and Mahomes hasn't been good on the road? We can say it's like an aberration. We can say it's just something strange. He hasn't been good on the road. And DAC has been amazing at home. So the fact that he has already lost a handful of games to quarterbacks who aren't in his caliber

and he's on the road and has underachieved and DAC is excellent at home. Is he? Dak? I don't know. 13 touchdowns three turnovers. What was the last big game at home?

Was it that Green Bay playoff game? It's not. I mean, this is a play. I mean, of course, is not officially a playoff game. Beating the world champions last week, I think is a big game.

I agree. I agree. And I, listen, I think that's the visual. I think that's excellent. But I, but I, what, KW? Nothing.

I'm just, if we're talking, if it's the play. Playoff. I'm not, I'm just saying, for all intents and purposes, to me, it's a must win. I'm not, I'm not trying to use DAC's playoff resume against him as much as I am trying to. I will just go to last week because the argument, if we would have said going into last week, hey, how can you make the case from Holmes?

Here's Daniel Jones's numbers this year. Here's Patrick's numbers this year. Here's the, you know, Daniel Jones as Jonathan Taylor. Patrick, you know, doesn't have anything in a weapon close to that. Here's the Colts offense this season, number one in everything. And you can, I feel like you are bending your own math on how you typically grade quarterbacks in saying Patrick was okay on Sunday. I think for any other quarterback that we discuss, if it's no matter how they get down the 11 points, and Patrick was a part of that.

The 95, like yesterday on the show, and this is, again, like, coach banged on Mahomes for executing a 97-yard game-tying drive because it wasn't a game-winning drive in a game they ended up winning. So that feels to me like we are twisting ourselves a bit here. But you think Mahomes would come off the field like I crushed it? No, he tied the games. No, but it was, on that drive, on a 10 out of 10 degree of difficulty, 10 out of 10 stakes drive.

He had an 8.8 out of 10 performance. They started on the three. They got down to the two. A touchdown would have ended the game. And then when he got the ball again, he just drove him down for the victory. That one I liked. Now, I do think with last week, Dak has just obviously been way better than Daniel Jones for their careers.

Yes. So I don't think it's apples to apples. Like Jones, even though he's been better statistically this year maybe, but nobody think, you know what I mean? Like you could easily say, I'm still taking Patrick. That does have a resume. It's just not comparable to my home. I guess here would be my thing before we move on KW.

My, and you can say this is foolish or wrong or I'm being a homer, but this is why I brought up the Brady thing. When we were in the midst of Tom, It, to me, would have been ridiculous to go into a game against anyone other than maybe Peyton at his peak or Rogers when Rogers at his peak against a good but not legendary quarterback. And be like, you know what this week? I'll take Donovan. All take Philip Rivers. All take one of these other good occasional Pro Bowl quarterbacks over the guy who is one of, if not the greatest ever who's in his.

prime, even if he is having a statistical dip, which Brady did. And so, like, that's the point. Like, I just think that. I mean, I guess that's hard to argue with, but it's, I don't know how I, A, we're not talking about Tom Brady. So it's tough. I don't think Mahomes is Tom Brady. I think he's a very good quarterback.

I don't think he is on Tom Brady's level. But, okay, but if you remove. That's saying a mouth. But if you remove Tom Brady. It's not. I'm not saying, like, normal stuff in this segment. I don't know what's going on. He's not on Tom Brady's level?

No, it's not a playoff game tomorrow, and the guy who has seven Super Bowls is not on. Okay, then that's fine. Then remove Tom. Let's say I was saying Peyton Manning or Peyton's tough one, but or Joe Montana. To me, no, I mean, if Tom Brady didn't exist, you think Patrick Mahomes in conversation, the greatest quarterback ever, right? Brady is the only play. This game tomorrow, Brady is the one quarterback I would take over.

So what are we going to do if Dak plays... He's in his class. If Dak throws for 300 yards, George Pickin has a... Pippin says 140 yards and a touchout. And they beat him. We're like, oh, my gosh. Pigs are flying. The world is turning on the wrong access.

It was very seeable. No, it could happen. Of course it could happen. I think Dallas could beat them. I'm just saying if you give me the choice of quarterback, to me as a no-brainer. Patrick Mahomes pass already his last three games. 57, 80, 77. It's not like he's on some historic heater.

He's won in his last three games. He's won one. So what's your answer? Obviously, Dak. And obviously the Cowboys tomorrow are going to win. I think the Cowboys are going to win. Yes, I think Dak is going to out. Dak who is playing super hot football.

George Pickens, who's super hot at home, I think he's going to beat Patrick Mahomes. Okay. Maybe I'm wrong, but if we can't. No, look, what is it frustrated about, bro? We pick Patrick. We know Patrick Mahomes not going undefeated through the season, but every time we try to make an argument that like, hey, this could happen. Like, this guy won, no, no, no, no. It's been to three Super Bowls.

I don't, I think that is, I think you are just to me misconstruing the difference between either who you got or can the Cowboys win and which quarterback would you rather have. and I and what I am saying is the answer for me and again you can say that I this is it's the wrong you know this would have been true three years ago it's not true now the answer for me of which if I could pick any quarterback to play in a game his team's got to have that's available right now I will take Patrick I will take Pat if they were if both if they were playing the Rams and Stafford is 30 touchdowns and two pitchers. in a game the Chiefs have to have, I will say, you know what, give me Patrick. I don't think that's a crazy take.

And I think that the twisting and pretzels to, yeah, listen, Patrick Mohn's is a very good quarterback. That's what made Brew's eyebrows raise, is that's not, if he were just a very good quarterback, then I would agree with you. But one of your tenets is legendary people, players do legendary things. I don't think tomorrow is a legendary moment. I think it's a very big game. I mean, you just said it might be the most watched football game ever.

It's Thanksgiving against the Cowboys in one of the biggest regular season spots the Chiefs have had against a team that really needs it. I think it's a huge game. And I think Dax's performances, to me, big games, playoff games. If you think this is like, DAC is going to crumble under the pressure of this game. No, I don't, let's just, I just want to see him be great. That's all I'm saying. I'm not expecting him to crumb. humble, but let's see if he's great because he hasn't been great in most of his playoff

fans. Patrick might be bad. We know the moment won't be the reason. And that's what Brew, I think, is saying. If Patrick's bad, there could be a bunch of reasons. It won't be. He got tight. He got nervous. The moment was too big. And I might take this year, I might take Stafford in like if it was the Rams against, I might say Stafford or I might say Josh. If this was Rams Chiefs, you were going to have to, it would still be Mahoney. answer, I think that if you have one of the, I'll be, because I don't want to

argue with you, one of the three greatest ever, and he is not physically compromised and he is in his age prime, and you're like, would you rather have him or anyone else that isn't one of the three greatest ever? My answer will be that guy.

Then it's hard, then we're kind of arguing past each other. It's okay, but like Stafford is like playing out of his mind. It's like, I still want more. Stafford's playing out of his mind. And if it's Chiefs Rams in the Super Bowl, I will say, yeah. And Stafford is just won a unanimous MVP, and Patrick was the seven seed with that

passer rating. I'll say, yeah, listen, I'll take Patrick. It doesn't always come true. You know another guy you might take? Jalen. I knew who's going to say Jail him. Yeah. Well, you have to take Jailin.

So there are the few guys. I'm just saying that. Bonix. He hasn't been awesome in big games. All right. Trevor Lawrence. Justin Herbert. All guys who have beaten Patrick Mahomes this year.

I'm just adding DAC to the list of potential teams. Their team beat Mahomes. And both did outplay him. I'll give you that. Travel Baltimore. Joe Burrow is hungry to get on the field since he's been on the couch since mid-September. Lamar giving thanks to his defense, which has delivered three wins since he returned and played un-Lamar-like.

Here's Borough and Lamar talking about their recent injuries. I'm a football player. I get paid a lot of money to go and play a game with my friends. I'm not going to ever go to somebody and say, yeah, I'm healthy, but, you know, I don't think, I don't think I should go out there and play it. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I'm not going to live my life and play this game scared of something happening. You know, I don't think about that.

You know, we win, so that's what it's all about. You know, I can't control the injury, you know. Things like that happen. Unfortunately, it's just happening for the wrong time, I believe, but we winning. So that's all my focus on. It's interesting. Here's their career head-to-head. Lamar, Domining six wins to one.

Brewery, worried about the Ravens and Burroughs return. Not worried, but my antennas are up. Like, I'm at attention now, and I'm sure the Ravens are the same way. What was going to be most likely an easy win is now going to be a tough win. And I think the defense will be the difference. Baltimore's defense, we know how well they're playing. And Cincinnati's defense is without question the worst. And as many bad defenses as they're on the league, they are by far the worst.

They can't stop the run. They can't stop the pass. They give up the most points. Like, they are a horrible defense, and I think that will be the difference as well as. It's not just that Lamar has owned the Bengals, 10 and one against them, six and one against Burrow. But Burrow is not great. For whatever reason, he's not great coming off rest or the all season or whatever.

Here's the grab down. These are his first games of the season for his career. All right. 76 pass or rating. This year he was healthy. This year they were two and up and didn't play well. And he did the preseason this year. Remember they tried to split it up.

And they did win those games. But he wasn't. The five and five TD Intercept. Like he is clearly a rust guy over rest. And so I'm not expecting, now maybe he'll play well. I'm not expecting Joe Burrow, the Joe Burrow that we all know and respect at his best to be there tomorrow. I'm expecting a rusty plays okay Joe Burrow. But look, it's Joe Burrow.

So their antenna should be up and I'm sure it is. But I think the Ravens will pull it out. So, Brew, you and I were going the same place. on Burrow, which is he's just, he in particular, this applies to, but I think we do a bad job with this in general, with athletes and across sports, which is assume guy who, you know, was out for a long time with injury when they're back, they're going to be their regular self. And that is just so rarely the case. And, but Burrow in particular, when you also add to it our knowledge that he, you know,

takes a few weeks in a season to kind of get into a froth, that that makes me feel like you guys, obviously you're more worried about him than Flacco, because Flacco seemed to have cooled off a bit, but I don't think you're getting piqued Joe Burrow. What I am most interested in this game, KW, is I think the Bengals defense is still awful, like truly terrible. And if historically Lamar has,

put up cartoonish stat lines against awful defenses. It's not that he hasn't done well against really good defenses but the game where it's like, oh, he had more touchdowns than incompletions and had a 148 passer rating. You know, one of those 17 of

21, five touchdowns, 220 yards, something like that. And if we don't see that this week, then I would be very concerned about is for one reason or another is Lamar post hamstring injury

and then hamstring to knee to ankle to toe just not going to cook the way he has. Quickly, I'll say this. Yeah, then I'm going to throw a wrench in the system. Go ahead. Okay. Even these last four weeks, when we know Lamar and the offense haven't looked great,

they still are averaging 25 points a game. Like they still would be over the course of the season the ninth highest scoring team in the football. So that's with them not playing well. So I agree. I don't have to necessarily, it would be great to see Lamar throw four touchdowns and, you know, a 140 passer rating. But I do need to see much better than we've seen over these last. Like I want to see Lamar be.

If Lamar throws two touchdowns has a high passer rating, but Derek Henry is the guy and he just runs all over him, I'll feel totally good about that. I'd like to take one take chip and put it on the board. Or like, ooh, that's not going to hit. I'm still putting it on the board. Bengals' defense, just because I was locked into Patriots Bengals, not as bad as you think. Bengals defense shows improvement in multiple areas. Al Golden implores group for more of it down the stretch.

Here's the stat from Jay Morrison. Golden's group is allowing teams to convert goal-to-go chances into touchdowns just 65% of the time, which is fifth best. Patriots got stopped. Patriots were 0-2 and goal to go. Steelers were one and two the previous week. Bears had a field day. It ran for 283.

We're going crazy, obviously, one in that long pass. I'm just saying, watching that game, I was like, no, I, I'm just saying. I can't, hold on. I, I, I'm putting it out there. They're last in everything. They're last. And not as bad as you think. Listen, everyone.

All right. Wilds is, Wilde said earlier, he wants to disagree, not be disagreeable. I'm going to be disagreeable for a moment. There is an element of watching a team play the. Patriots that for you perverts how you view that team? Fair point.

Because you are unable. The bills do. The bills aren't good. But then there's that, but then there's also a, well, the Patriots only scored 19 points and the Patriots got stopped on eight consecutive goal from the one yard line.

It can't be that the Patriots might not be quite, and I like the pets, might not be quite as good as their 10 and 2 record suggests. It must be that the Bengals all of a sudden have a good defense. And the Sports Illustrated. No, the Sports Illustrated, KW. You just stumbled across that or you searched or you were looking forward.

I searched the Bengals. You looked for the one take. Hey, it's true. They're getting better. Most motivational segment in all the sports next on FS1. The Fox Sports Geelong serious XM. What's on your holiday list? He's cute.

He's a cute. He's a great quarterback. I'm not just willing to say. He's very good. KW's mad. He's put up something. I'm not talking about Jack versus Mahomes. You're like, here's a conversation that I'll win.

How about if Philip Rivers played Tom Brady? I'm like, we're not talking about that. Black Friday special. On Friday. Coach, you're looking great. Thanks for sure. Time now for the most motivational segment in all of sports, the buttless. Also the time where we read some viewer mail that we get every day.

Dear Wilds, happy Thanksgiving. Well, thank you. Love the show. Did Brew continue his hot streak over the course of last week's Bud List? Well, thank you very. Sincerely Ryan and Brian has always said. Let's take a look at the Bud List standings or really the results. Brew, you kind of walked yourself into a loss.

Well, I knew. Obviously, I was going to have a loss unless the Colts and Chiefs tied. But look, I would take, I don't count that against the. the momentum of the but list because somebody had to lose. And Jones had his team in position to win. Oh. So I think that's a tied in regulation. Yeah.

I mean, so I don't look at that. I just had, if I had Mahomes and Jones reversed and Jones was at the top of the bud list, then I think it'd be an L. But, but, but Brew, you deprived yourself of a chance to stay perfect. I know, because it's about, it's about the integrity. Actually, it's about the integrity of the Bud-Less. It is about who is under pressure. It's not about me.

The Bud-Lis isn't about my motivational magnificence. It's about who's under pressure, and hopefully they get motivated coach, but it's about the players or the coaches. Not Bruce. So here we go. At number three, we're getting right into it. Dak, Dak, because this is contrary

a popular opinion on this show, a playoff game, that you lose this. He's not out. I don't think you're getting in at 10, 6, and 1. Of course, I know it's not officially a playoff game, but for all intents and purposes, this is your season. Now, you have had a phenomenal season. Second best ever, his second best season.

2023, it was better. You finished second in MVP race that year. But I would say this. That season, obviously, ended ugly in the loss at home to Jordan Love in his first ever playoff game in the Packers in the AT&T Stadium in Texas. But if that, if you can just get

the Cowboys into the playoffs, I think a lot of people would look at this as thus far the shining moment of his career. Like if he just after that slow start, if they make the playoffs this year? Yes, if he beats, you got to beat the Chiefs, I believe, to do it. And if you do that and then get the Cowboys into the playoffs,

I think it'll be your shiny moment thus far, almost regardless of what would happen in the playoffs, although you would take a ding for another bad performance. But here it is, you got a chance to beat Mahomes and the Chiefs and maybe in their season and extend yours. Dak, good luck. All right, at number two, I don't care about my record. All right.

It's who needs the motivation coach. And Patrick Mahomes, I'm shocked that I'm the only one that thinks if the Chiefs, I know what the computers say. I know what the analytics nerds say. And all of that, the algorithm and the football indexes and all that. And I know 11 and 6 can theoretically and should get you into the playoffs. But my thing is this, if you lose to the Cowboys, who still, I get it. that the defense has improved somewhat,

but it's still in my book, toothless. All right? It's not a great defense. If you lose to them and you really need this game, then I'm not, I can't be confident you're going to win out. When you got Houston, you got the charges, and you got different. The Cowboys have to win out right now. Yes.

If the Chiefs lose, they're not dead, but they have to win out moving forward. They could have a better record. And it's a good chance they have a better record than the winner of the AFC North. Correct. And missed the playoffs. But you still wouldn't get them playoffs. So this is a big moment, Patrick.

And I'll say this. I brought it up somewhat about that. I mean, obviously Patrick hasn't achieved beyond, you know, whatever we could imagine. However, if he were to, obviously not just get them in the playoffs, but if he were to get them to the Super Bowl and win it. And we all know that's on the table if they get in the playoffs. I think a lot of people might say this was his greatest achievement. Maybe.

Now, he's had tons of great achievements. But to come back from the dead, if you will, I mean, to come back from five and five, when everybody thinks you're done, the dynasty's over, you're not Patrick Mahones that we used to know. And win the Super Bowl, that would be here. huge. Patrick, I believe in you. At number one, Lamar Jackson. Now, Lamar, look, I know he kind of admitted it whilst in that clip we showed that, hey, it came at the wrong time, but I'm out there. I got to play better. I applaud you for not putting a big emphasis on your injury. Some players might be like, well, I'm banged up, but hey, I'm going to fight. I'm going to do

my best, but yeah, my foot's not what it used to be. And I can't run like I use. I applaud you for not doing any of that. And you're right. When you're on the field, you got to produce. I don't care if you're banged up. I don't care if you're hurt. And this is a get right game, if there ever was one.

This defense in Cincinnati, contrary to what Wilds thinks, is the worst defense in football by a large margin. A large run. They can't stop the run so Derek Henry should be able to go wild. They can't stop the pass. so you should be able to have a great game. And they've given up 35 points, I believe, in the last few games. All right.

So this is a get right game for you, Lamar. And the defense has supported you and is playing well. And so now you guys have to pick it up. And if you can get close to the real Lamar, the superstar Lamar, then you guys are really starting to build toward being able. to make some noise and be a real Super Bowl contender in the AFC. Lamar Jackson, you know

I believe in you. Well, I I'm thankful for the Bud List. I mean, regardless of thanks, David, I'm on your IMDB page, you should have Master of Motivational Magnificance, magnificence on it because it's just so good. Thank you. But I'm not at some, I'm not

a friend of yours, someone near and dear to your heart. I'm adding Brock Purdy to the Bud List. And here, and here, Here's why. If Carolina could have done anything with those three interceptions, I really believe we'd be talking about the fact that he got yanked in this game. That Brock Purdy had gotten taken out and will he start the next week? Is there a quarterback?

Kind of all those things. But Carolina couldn't capitalize on it, which was his saving grace. But things are very different going into this weekend. But I want to just show you where Brock Purdy is right now. So he's played a total of four games. He had a really good game against him. Arizona, but outside of the Arizona game, he's at a 67.6 completion percentage. That's not terrible, but we're talking about five touchdown, seven interceptions, and a 77.4. Don't matter, coach. Get with me.

I get it. So there's that, and then you roll into Cleveland, and what's Cleveland done this season? Well, Cleveland's done a lot of things, and they've created a lot of problems for, for quarterbacks. They've created a lot of problems for offenses, but you can see second, second, second, third. On third down percentage, the third, in the red zone, they're seventh, but over the last three games, they've been second in the red zone. So that's going to be a problem. Turnover or takeaways are ninth. So they can create a ton of issues. And the way he's been playing, if it doesn't get a lot better, maybe this is another situation where we're talking about the possibility of Mac Jones coming in.

Coming in the game. Well, if we roll into three interceptions again, Chidor Sanders is going to have a whole week of practice. So that should, I mean, we should be scoring 30 in a whole week of practice. So you got that component of it. And then you got what Miles Garrett in honor of Stranger Things, they've tweeted out that, you know, Miles is getting ready to set his sights on the next target

to send the upside down list. Upside down. And, yeah, so Miles is ready. And Miles has, you know, he's on bruised ballot, so there's that. I think that's very fair, coach. And I agree with everything you said. And I am under the belief. Now, I don't think he'll do what he did last week.

But if he were to go out there and throw three first half interceptions and they find themselves in a ball game, I don't think a benching would be out of the question. How about one early one? I don't think, no. I don't think it's one. I think if it's the same pattern that we saw last week, where you're coming off the sideline after the third one,

and that's with them dropping two more. Right, right, right, right. Yeah, no, that's definitely a fair one. So, and by the way, it's going to be snowy in Cleveland, reportedly. Good for you. Nice little Thanksgiving weather for you. I'm going to be in Cape Cod. Oh, wow.

It's time now for one of the best segments in all of sports, the sports media buzzmen. It's tuning. Thank you, KW. So was everyone listening to what Bruce said in the Budlist intro? It's not about him. It's about the integrity. of the bud list.

Of course. That's what I used to think, too, bro. What? Which is why I sadly have to put you on the bud list because of who's missing. Because you guys can review, Drew is selfishly abusing his buddless power. Because no one is under more duress this week than Jamar Chase. Jamar Chase, who missed last week for spitting in Jalen Ramsey's face,

whose team with Wild's make-believe resurgent defense could have beaten. The best team in football, the Patriots, who now Joe Burrow is back from an injury that we all thought was going to be out until at least mid-December, if not the whole year. And T. Higgins is not going to be able to play because he got hurt when you were off work. So why isn't Jamar Chase on there? because Brew knows that the Bud List has been undefeated and doesn't want anything to disrupt his beloved Ravens trek back to the AFC North title.

I know it, you know it, everyone knows it, that the tie went to, well, this would hurt my Ravens. And I would never question your integrity, but it disappoints me, Brew, to see you abusing the power of the undefeated bud list like this. Here's what I'll give you. Lamar doesn't necessarily have to be number one. Right?

I mean, it's the Bengals. Is he under more duress than Mahomes and Dak? That's arguable. You're going to argue that. Here's the problem where I think you missed it. Is Jamar Shea's under that much pressure? Yeah. Like, I mean, I don't think anybody's going to blame.

They got eight losses. If they lose, they're supposed to lose. Zach Taylor on there. He's under pressure. Put some Bengal on there. That's the only place, but, you know. That seems like he's admitting it. That's fine.

Not bad. I am going to the world college basketball in putting Thanksgiving at the University of Connecticut under duress. They play a Friday game down the street at Madison Square Garden against number 13, Illinois. So Dan Hurley's like, you know what? We're not going to be all stuffed to play the Illini. actually having Thanksgiving today. And here's his rationale. Take a listen.

We're going to celebrate our Thanksgiving on Wednesday as a team. We're going to eat the, what's in the turkey, Bobby? No, no, no, no. What makes people sleepy? Triptophan. Triptophan. So we're not going to eat the f-trip the fan on Thursday and be sluggish as shit on Friday.

So we're going to eat the triptophan, the turkey, and everything, on Wednesday so that all the triptophan is out of our system by the time we get to MSG. Not actually how it works. But I liked it. How does it work? I don't know. Now, and see, this is the thing.

I had to spend part of my day looking up triptophan. Triptophan is oftentimes sort of the culprit when you're also eating just a ton of food and a ton of carbs. Regardless of what it is. Yes. It's the, it doesn't have, turkey doesn't have that much more triptophan than beef or chicken, but you're never just feasting. So then Turkey gets the blame and the mashed potatoes are off scot-free.

So enjoy Thanksgiving today. Yukon Huskies coming up next. The Eagles bouncing back. You didn't have an addition? That's what it was. Oh, yeah. I'm sorry. Nick, Nick.

Nick is a fan trip. I throw up. I throw it. Eight and three bears at the eight and three Eagles. Same record, but the champs are touchdown favorites. Chicago has won eight of their last nine. Eagles coming off a disappointing loss. in Dallas.

Nick, do you expect the Eagles to get back on track? No. I expect them to win, but I think the offense is just the offense. The, and we just, today, Dust, our producer Dusty was reading a quote from great longtime guest on Colin Coward Show, Greg Cosell. And I was coming down the hall. I had, it was contextless, but I heard Dusty say, the offense. has no identity,

doesn't seem to know what it's doing, something like that. And I just said, I was like, you're talking about the Eagles? And he's like, yeah. But I had no, he was just like, I didn't guess, to your point, the Titans or anyone,

it's like, oh, it's probably the Eagles. To be fair, like most of the conversations Dusty has about the Eagles. That's a good point. That is true. That is true. He has his Eagles had on the show. All that's true.

And I've been showing you guys this three-and-out stat all year. I know, but it's... No, this is better one, K-W. Better than the... Well, Jalen said, too, that they are lacking an identity offensively. But what about the last decade? Teams most likely to go three and out.

That's the last decade. That is Jared Gough's rookie year with Jeff Fisher. That is a Ryan Tannahill when he got injured year with the Titans. That is Belichick's final year with the Pats when they're going back and forth. Mack and Zappy, and that is a darn old injury, Adam Gase Jets team. Can I make this even worse? And then the Eagles. I thought about, because I was thinking about your graphic.

Yeah. This is even worse because they only need nine yards. Right. Oh, that's right. They actually only need nine yards. Right, because they will, if they, if they were facing a fourth and one, they'd they'd push it. So that is just, it is stunning.

And it's a testament to them that they're winning. you know, the, so, but to me, getting, because they're 8 and 3, so off track implies it's not just about the win-loss record for the question, at least to me, it's about will the offense look functional? And I don't think so, even against the Bears team that's down its linebackers, that hasn't been good defensively. Yeah, I think that they do have an identity. And one of the biggest problems last week is they went away from it, so they had to make everybody happy. So AJ got his 10 targets. Devante got his 11 targets. Sequin got his 10 carries.

So everybody's happy and they do something they haven't done in 26 years, which is below a 21-point lead. So maybe the running game isn't what it should be or what it used to be. That's fine. Give Tank Bigsby some more shots at it. And I don't think Sequin may have a little bit of hurt feelings, but it's going to be hard to have that many hurt feelings when you haven't produced like you produced in the past. So let's see whether or not that works. But they have a formula that's been pretty consistent and has worked pretty well. And now we're putting our finger in the hole, trying to plug up the different holes, trying to make people happy.

That's not going to work. That's just going to generate more and more problems than just trying to fix the thing that they've done well historically. Yeah, I'm more with coach. I think they get back on track, which is a win. And that's how I was thinking about it as a win. I don't think the offense will look fantastic, but I think they'll win. And I just think the hand-wringing about the offense is just a little overblown.

They've still beaten the Chiefs. They've still beating the Rams. They've still beating the Buccaneers. Like, they are still beating very good teams. I'm glad I didn't hear squawking out of the locker room this week. Now, again, like coach said, AJ's probably fine. You know, he got his eight catches, 110 yards or whatever it was, a touchdown. Yeah.

But I think Jalen will play well, and I agree with coach. I think Bigsby's going to get more carries. And look, Sequin, this is professional football. We love Sequin. You were great last year. You've been great in your career. But you are not producing. And he does have the character and integrity where even if he's heard inside,

which he will be because he's human being, he's not going to make a big deal out of it. But Biggsby's been running well. And someone coming into your spot? And lighting it up, that can let a pretty significant fire too. Yep. So I think they look, and also I think the bears are stepping up in weight class and they're not ready. I agree with that. Can I show you a graphic?

This was a hypothesis that I had that we usually hold towards Derek Henry that he'll break these long runs late. So this is Sequin last year and this year rush it. So just his rushes are down. Games with 25 or more, he had five last year. only one this year. They are winning. So remember last year, Jaylen never needed to throw because they were up at the half.

So 20 long runs, 20 or more, it's 17 last year, only two. But 14 of 17 came in the second half we're getting a lot. So there's two ways to look at it. One is we've got the lead so he's just going to get more touches. The second idea, and tell me if you buy it,

is maybe he needs some time to warm up. Maybe he needs some time to, like, see the holes. Maybe the defensive line gets a little bit. tired. By that, the way to Sequan's success is actually give him more touches, not less. Yeah, typically

running backs do, especially really elite running backs, do continue to get better. And that's because defenses, you know, as the game goes on, they wear down as well. So there is something to that. In terms of his long runs, look, when he gets the edge, when he

gets a clean hole, the odds of anybody catching him are very small. He hasn't gotten as many of those. But yeah, I'm a firm believer that you continue to put body blows on people and eventually wears them down. He's also been a guy, even in New York,

where he might get three yards here, four yards, and then pop one. That's what's lacking this year. On Sequin, I think it is a combination of, he is not as explosives as last year. He is a little beat up. The offensive line isn't as dominant, and now it's in, like, so there's a

lot of factors to it that I don't know just pressing the Seguan button more fix. It might still be smart to do, but I don't think it gets him back anywhere close to last year. If I can have 30 seconds to defend A.J. Brown for a second because I know we are

acting as if A.J. Brown does not care about winning. That it is purely, I got my touches so I'm happy. Maybe that's true. I mean, he said it kind of that, not that exactly, but he didn't say I don't, after the Super Bowl. After the Super Bowl, he said winning a Super Bowl didn't satisfy me.

You know, I get my satisfaction from dominating. But I, so. But that, but it doesn't, I think it is a bridge too far to then assume a game that they lost, but he got his numbers he's happy about. I don't know that. Maybe that's true. Yeah, I'm not so much saying that. I'm just, I'm glad he didn't say anything this week, but it's interesting.

I haven't been on Twitch. But he was saying stuff after wins. I get, but what do you? And not, now you lose. but you had numbers, you'd say nothing. But if he would have said something, we'd have gotten mad. Right? If you said something after this game, we'd have said it's another distraction.

I just think it's more appropriate to say it after this game than after a win. Okay. And I think that very well is likely true. The point I am trying to make is this. He has not been wrong that there's something wrong with the offense. And I will continue to harp on. It sure feels to me like a lot of people in that locker room agree with him. and he is being the public face of sounding the alarm

that there is something wrong with the offense, but the most expensive offense in the history of pro football with all pro players all over the place, being on a list with Adam Gase's Jets and Jared Goss's rookie year Rams, is there's something wrong there. The fact that only the Titans have had more scoreless halves this year, there is something wrong there. And so I don't think it's purely,

It might be selfish, but he might not be wrong about it. Right, but the things you'd point to, the offensive line and the run game and Sequin. Like, that's what you would say. It's not Jalen whose numbers are way down. It's Sequins and the offensive line. Live from New York, it's a show that, and it wasn't me, floated out Mack Jones coming in midgame in Cleveland. It was coach because he's right.

Well, I don't think Brock's going to be like that. It would be a good opportunity if he does for Mack to redeem his last really bad weather game performance. The wind game. Yeah, but he won that game. But hold on. Brock just won his game. You've been killing his. Yeah, exactly.

KW. A whiz and win. There's a little weird rivalry on that side of the table. I have also, I'm debuting a more manicured Mahomes take. Oh, okay. I went out and had a lifesaver. You got some bad. You got some bad.

I didn't know you guys were going to be out of your mind. The way you ripped him in the first. I was expecting rational arguments. Today we're counting down to Chiefs Cowboys. Here are the take about Mahomes that will blow your mind. Meanwhile, can Joe Burrow finally get his second win over Lamar? The other subtext here, Lamar has six is six in one against Joe Boring. Like, you know right?

Right there. Right there. Two QBs, both on the Mouin. both on the Mount Rushmore of QBs. I'm not leaning on there go. But right now you're in for a real treat. Last night. No shot. No shot.

The prompter is, oh wait, is it gonna work? There it is. Let's see. No, no shot, buddy. I had all these good jokes. No, just read it off there. Read it off there. Last night. We gotta get it in an old turkey slaughterhouse while instacarting ingredients for a series of pies.

An elite committee of analysts, savants, and cramber. very sauce aficionados fought and toiled and burned the midnight oil to deliver the best segment in all of sports. It's an honor. It's a privilege. And thank you to Tatiana for doing the prompter. It's time for next year.

She's been, Tatiana's been able to do this whole time and instead you use this thing from a 1988, Matthew Broderick movie. Like what? I feel like we're playing Atari with it. That's right. All right.

I'm comfortable with that. Coach, you weren't here earlier. A little controversy with committee last night because one member of the committee I wasn't in the name but I will third good was adamant I don't know what you guys laugh the names of your committee they're all they are all named after esteemed you know legends of our history there's good named after there yeah and Marshall and yeah they related just coincident

Marshall is a coincidence Marshall this one he's actually named after Abraham's Marshall Mathers oh oh oh oh there's no Abraham Martin is named after All right, as I was saying, Thurgood thought we should do the old hack need. The top is the turkey. The bottom is, you know, what do people not like? The green bean casserole. And then, but the problem with that is it's not intuitive. Because sometimes people come out with this take.

You know what's overrated turkey? Nobody eats turkey during the way. They know, it's like, are you going to the Rams? So we're going with the regular tier names. I would have liked it, though. know you would have liked it, but it feels like it's low-hanging fruit. Maybe I'll just put my own in. Okay.

First, though, eliminations with one fresh elimination. Oh, the kids table. Keep it up, wow. It's got to live here. It's going to really be rail us. The Vikings are newly eliminated. Also, dirty pool by some either charger. I think it's charger bloggers that are,

are aggregating my take from March about, hey, is there a potential J.J. McCarthy Justin Herbert trade available, cropping out the date and pretending I did it this week. That's wrong, guys. Maybe it was a bad take in March, but it'd be a horrible take this week. Bottom of the tears, regressing to the mean, the Steelers and the Panthers. Both nice hot starts. Neither of whom, certainly the Panthers, but maybe the Steelers as well, had real, I think, realistic aspirations to be a legitimate contender. But they had the records of one, you know, as of a few weeks ago, Panthers coming back to the pack, the Steelers dropping like a rock. Cheetahs, aka scary, not dangerous. Bengals and Cowboys.

Cheetahs never killed a person. Is that true? That's true. But they're scary. They're not dangerous, though. Explanating. Exactly right. Yeah, yeah.

Cheetah, correct. Cheetah, you'd have thought it. Makes time I see a cheetah. Yeah. And so they appear, they seem like they should be scary. Dangerous, but they're not. They're just scary. Yeah.

That's the Bengals with Burrow back and the Cowboys with Lamb and Pickens. They're scary. You don't want to play them. And listen, it's not like, I think either one of these teams are going to go winless the rest of the way. And either of them on any given week can beat a team. The Cowboys could beat the Chiefs this weekend. The Bengals could beat the Ravens this weekend, but they're not dangerous teams because they are not able to string together

long enough stretches of quality football on both sides of the bowl. Quite the quarterback trio here. Herbert, Bake Show, and the Prince. All three of their teams right now appear to be in similar caliber for very different reasons. The Chargers being, are. Seven and four, but seems like everyone expects, well, they're not going to keep that up, which is weird because Herbert's healthy and they have hardball, but everybody understands that Justin Herbert,

who's one of those talented quarterbacks that league's ever seen, evidently can't play without Joe Alt. And the Buccaneers, after playing with fire with those close comebacks that you were talking about, Brew, the injuries seem to finally caught up to him. Scheduled a little tougher. They've lost three straight. No, Brew, they're still. Admit. What? They're a cute team?

Yes. Right on the money, which. And the Jags are seven and four, have a couple games left, I believe, two games left against the Titans, are like 80% to make the playoffs. Nobody takes them seriously. Nobody, even though they beat the Chiefs, that nobody takes them seriously. But the pedigree, the Ravens, they're not that good. We have played 11 games this year. You can't point to one where you're like, I thought they played awesome on.

on offense and defense. Not one. Now the pedigree says Lamar's an all time great quarterback. The Ravens uniform with the big scary Edgar Allan Poe signage is gonna, they're gonna be great. The argument for them right now really is the pedigree less, more so than what we've seen on the field. Surging versus slumping.

I'd be worried if I'm the Colts. Yes. You have two left against the Texans, two left against the Jags, A Seahawks game and a Niners game. You could be on a three-game losing streak already. It took overtime in Berlin against the Falcons and some very questionable game management by Rahim Morris to escape that game.

You blew the game against Kansas City. The Texans, on the other hand, are just mauling people. They went on a three-game winning streak without their starting quarterback. And the Texans got to feel every week like, get us to 17. If you get us to 17, We can win.

Maybe the deficit's too much, but the Texans get the Colts twice, including this weekend. Be honest. Who do you trust? So this is the question I'm asking. If I were to tell you, the Packers or the Bears are trailing by three with two minutes left in a game, which of those teams do you trust based on what they've done in clutch spots, close games this season. If I were to tell you,

one of these quarterbacks was playing a team they were a big favorite against and had a three interception disaster. What's your guess? Right now this moment, Caleb or Jordan Love, I know it's not what people, what we thought going into the year,

but as we head into week 13 is the more trustworthy team, the Chicago Bears, to me, certainly on offense. The defense, of issues and the Packers defense of course who do they have coach who do they Micah Parsons and by the way I haven't dropped any Micah Sacks stats on us now these back in the top five next I would have trusted a team that was leading by

three underachieving over achieving I think these two teams are about similar and overall quality which for the Lions is a massive under achievement and for the Niners is a massive overachievement given their injuries given what the expectations were going into this year the Lions where we've been banging on the door. This is the year we break through. The Niners win in the year, Kyle Shanahan's like, pump the brakes, everybody.

Like, this could be a retool year. Then he lost half his team to injury again. And the Niners are so injured. Otherwise, smart people are like, I think we need to look into this power plant that's by our practice facility and if it's messing with our guys. That's how injured they are year over year.

Yet, they're eight and four. And if they were to this weekend be playing the Lions, I'd say that's a coin flip game. Only trust the quarterback, only don't trust the quarterback. Why do you, why can the bills win? Josh Allen. Why are the Broncos not the best team in football? Bonex.

The bills don't have a lot of right now. James Cook's excellent, obviously. It's a little overstatement. Super redeeming qualities except for they've got a guy at quarterback, even if he's not having his best season. that you feel like can throw the Superman cape on. The Broncos check every box of a legitimate Super Bowl contender except people are like, hey, Bo Nix, really?

And so, but I think right now, if they played in a playoff game, you'd feel like you have to pick the Broncos. They're better at everything. And then you'd be like, I'm picking Bo Nix over Josh Allen. Feels weird. KW. What is this not? Well, it's not the standings, which means the number one Patriots are probably on here.

But where the standings we'd be there? It's not the standing. So who do you think the number one Patriots are next to? It's not the standings. I don't hate this. This is a compliment. To you. To you.

To the Patriots. Everybody knows. I'm a Drake Maga. I'm beloved in New England. Everybody knows that. However, I do think that the 10 and two Patriots and the six and five chiefs at this very moment are actually similar caliber teams. and for different reasons

and with different strengths and weaknesses but on a neutral field right now this moment I think that game's very, very close and so I know the records are very different. One team is better than 50% to make the get the one seed and the other team's barely

better than 50% to make the playoffs but this also could be a first round playoff matchup, 2.7 if you guys don't get the one seed. It's what it is. Coach liked this last week so I brought it back. Last week the Eagles were Chekhov's gun. This week, Chekhov's gun fired. Oh, we saw it last week. All the, all the simmering issues about the offense

popped up over those last three quarters in Dallas. And Marshall really got in his bag with these last three. Oh, see if you guys can get the trend. So Chekhov's gun fired into check his heart rate, his being Sam Darnold. Listen, man, the Seahawks are awesome. They lost week one, but we've decided on this show, week one games don't count. The, the, bro, we've decided week one games don't count. They barely lost to the Rams, who everybody thinks the best team in football, despite throwing four picks. And the other game was a three-point loss to Bake Show.

They are good at everything. But you just worry in a big game, is Sam Darner. You're going to walk over to Sam Darno. And be like, are you, are you, do you need to be checked out, buddy? Are you okay? Chekhov's gun fired. Check his heart rate to checking all the boxes. I don't know what there's not to like about the Rams.

They have a great coach. They have a great quarterback. They have a great defense. They have great skill position players. They are healthy. They can beat you a bunch of different ways. That coach is the week 13 Thanksgiving tears. One thing I really love about the tears, I always learn something.

Yeah. And the cheetahs being not dangerous. Scary, not dangerous. The Chekhov's gun reference last week was fantastic. and bring it back this week. I think that's fantastic. I'd like to sit in on one of those meetings. I mean, I think I could actually help line it up correctly.

Well, you can't sit in, but maybe next year you could be on the committee. You take applications. But I do love the labels that you have for you. Yes, the labels are always. Fantastic. My issue is where you have the Colts. And I know that you're listing them as slumping, but they did just lose to the greatest six and five team in the history of the NFL.

It is true. And it went down to overtime. and they did stop them first and goal from the two-yard line where Patrick Mahomes wasn't able to get his offense in so that they could win the game in regulation. And I do think he did and kicked a field goal, which is nice. And I think that two weeks before the Pittsburgh game, that was an aberration. And what happens is there's a learning curve with losing and there's a learning curve with winning. And I don't think Indianapolis was expecting to be where they were. and that comes with some mistakes.

And they put too much on Daniel Jones plate, and he threw the ball 50 times against Pittsburgh, and we saw what happened there. And then you come back to this week, and they moved away from Jonathan Taylor. That was a mistake as well. But there is a learning curve that goes into it. But overall, there's still a very good team,

and they could easily bump up, whether you want to do with Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, San Francisco. They've all got their issues. Philadelphia blew a 21. point lead. So there's there's all those elements and just let's take a look at where Indianapolis is statistically, first, second, fourth, and seventh offensively. So they're top five in every category offensively. They've got the second biggest point of a differential to

the Rams. And then defensively, the real issue has been opponent pass yards for game, but they trade for Soss Gardner. He's still getting used to the defense. That should pay some dividends moving forward as he gets more established. How long does that take, Coach? I thought sauce was really good against the Chiefs. I know that, so I thought he was already good in that game. Yes, but I think as you, as you, the defense coordinator understands what he can do really well, as he understands what the defense, the way the defense is structured, you can do more

things with him. So whether it's taking out the top receiver, wherever you want to play him, but that does take a little bit of time for that player to probably perform as good he's as he's as he. can be. I think you're too low with the Colts and I know you don't like Daniel Jones so that's why you're killing him and that's why I think I have no reason to like or dislike Daniel Jones. I just watch football every weekend and I'm like I don't think he's that good. I'm sure he's a nice enough guy. I also know that one of my litmus test brews brew for quarterbacks that I think people pretend to believe in but don't actually believe in is if they lose a game,

do people get angry that they let the quarterback decide the game? And very like with the cults, everyone's mad. Why don't you trust Daniel Jones while simultaneously being mad? You know why they lost that game? They had Daniel Jones drop back instead of handing off to Jonathan Taylor. Yeah, you've got Jonathan Taylor. Yeah, I like him. That's the difference. I think he's really good. That's the difference. You've got a guy in the NBC. Yeah, people do say that somewhat about Josh. No, people say it about Lamar in the playoffs.

I don't think they say it about Josh. When they, I mean, when they a few years ago really took off, it was because they stopped throwing as much. Yep. They reeled him in. And now they're letting him go again and the turnovers are. I guess I just haven't heard many times where the bills lose. And people are like, they gave the ball of Josh.

And I'm angry because they gave him. They allowed them to throw 50 times. Yeah. That to me is problematic. I'm a little disappointed in the, the names are always on point of the levels, but while it's outside of the Chiefs, of course. Yeah. It's looking a lot like standings coach.

You think? Kind of. Yeah, I mean, how are the Ravens? The Ravens are way too low. Because, I mean, we have this thing we do. Cross all sports, all levels. When we want to know, coach, who's better? We line them up on the same field and they go at it and whoever wins is better.

Yeah, that's why the Texans are ahead of the Ravens. They beat them by 30. Yeah, without Lamar Jackson. But Lamar Jackson's back now. And even without Lamar Jackson, coach, the Ravens played a team that's two levels. Two levels ahead of them. The Chicago Bears and smashed them. By two touchdowns.

Smash them with Tyler Huntley. So the only rationale I can even consider for them being ahead of the Ravens is the standings. They have a better record. So I think the Ravens actually should be up there with Denver and Buffalo. And here's why. How could they be with Buffalo? Here's why. Yeah.

And they beat, they knocked them all over the field. What happened when they play Buffalo? Yeah, by a point though. One point. One point. I could have went there. I won't. The Ravens defense, the last six weeks, has allowed coach 14 points a game.

That would be best in the league over the course of season. And here's the thing. The Rams with everybody's All-American who have no flaws. Checked all the boxes. They held them to 17. The Bears, another top 10 defense held them to 16. held them to 16. Top 10 offense.

Top 10 offense, I'm sorry. Held them to 16. So that defense is playing legitimately great football. And then the offense, even with Lamar's struggling, I said it earlier. Coach, last four games, Lamar's looked bad for him. They averaging 25 points a game, which would be top 10 in the league. They still are a top 10 offense. All right.

And I think Lamar has earned the benefit of the doubt, like Mahones. He's not Mahomes, but like Mahomes, to where we give him the benefit of the doubt that, you know what, he's going to come out of this story. He's going to start playing better, but he's out there on the field. He's going to start playing better than he has. Coming up next. You're not doing one? No, we ran out of time. We're jamming in all of our segment.

Wow. I think the Broncos are too long. Are we chiefs on Upsiler, we discuss next? Going through Thanksgiving, you have your meals with your family, and then you go and sit on the couch, and typically there's not a lot on except football back in the day it was lions and somebody you go watch Matthew Stafford throw for 300 400 some yards with Calvin Johnson and probably lose the game but it was fun to watch this Thanksgiving Packers versus the Lions Dan Campbell trying to win the Thanksgiving game coverage begins at 11 o'clock only

on Fox. Welcome back to first things first, Chiefs in Dallas. You know, after their buy, they lost to Denver, one score game. Then on Sunday, beat the number one offense in a one score game. KC is six and five, some ups and some downs. What version of the chiefs do you expect to see tomorrow, Nick? I think you're going to see the offense that we saw for a month plus post the original tackle that turned the tide. And I think that for two reasons. One is the Mahomes this year has struggled against man to man for some reason. I don't know

why, but he has. He's been the number one rated quarterback against zone defense. Matt Iber flus and the Cowboys play a ton of zone. So that's the first reason. The second reason is just more holistically. Broncos are a great defense, right? And they gave Patrick

a lot of trouble. The Eagles are a great defense. They gave Patrick some trouble. The big play in that game was the the Kelsey tipped interception, but still. Mediocre or bad defenses, past

defenses, which I think the Cowboys still have despite the addition of Quentin Williams, the Chiefs have carved up. I also think they're going to have to score a bunch of points because the flip side to it is the Chiefs do not have a real pass rush without

sending extra people. DAC is a smart enough and good enough quarterback to where sending extra guys can really be risky against him. So I think Pickens and Lamb are going to have big games. I think Dax going to have a big game. But I think there's going to be a high-scoring shootout-ish game. And so that's the version of the Chiefs I expect to see, Coach. I have no idea what version of the chiefs we're going to get. I don't know if we're going to get the team that's won six games and is going to the Super Bowl or the team that's lost five games and is going to get eliminated

from the playoffs. And that's how they've been throughout the course of the year. And when you look at Dallas, it's been 50 years since they've won there. Okay, they play in Dallas every eight years. Fifty years a long time. Fifty years. Five losses in a right. The last time they played their... The home wasn't even...

It wasn't in the... A point differential for Dallas over the last three season on Thanksgiving has been almost 17 points. That's pretty significant. Dak Prescott's been part of that process. So there's that. I think the more telling stat is that Chiefs have had as many turnovers in the last four games was six as they had in the previous 18 regular season games. And that's a dramatic stat for them.

And you saw it last week, right? So we had the pick early in the game that sets up the touchdown. And those things are so uncharacteristic of this team historically. But over this past month or so, it's been something that's been very, very consistent and troubling. And I don't think Dallas is great necessarily at creating turnover. but they're better than they have been, you know, prior to the trade deadline. I don't expect a shootout.

Really? Nope. I expect Kansas City to win 2724. And here's why I don't expect to shootout. That's almost a shootout. But go ahead. But I, the Chief's defense steps up big, just like they did against Indianapolis. So Baltimore, when they were averaging 39 points a game or 38 points a game,

the Chiefs held them to 20. When Detroit was averaging 35 points a game, the Chiefs held them to 17. And Indianapolis, Leads the League, was averaging 33 points a game, the Chiefs held them to 20. That defense steps up when it needs to. So I don't think Dallas is going to just be throwing the ball

all over the field and scoring all these points. I think they'll have success. I think they'll be, you know, it'll be a good back-and-forth game, but I don't think Dallas is going to run. on rough shot over that defense. And I think Mahomes will make the big plays necessary. I expect a good game from him, not like a historic Mahomes game,

but I expect a very good game from him and they went by three. You rather have him or Jack on Thursday? What's your updated Mahomes take, Kato? Coach, I got attacked. You didn't get attacked. He said Mahomes was very good. Yeah. He also said he's not in Brady's class, which coach disagrees with.

But go ahead. Historically, he's not this year. he's currently he's not in Brady's class. No, not this year. This is how I'm manicuring my take. At his best, Mahomes is the best. At 80% of his best, Mahomes is still the best.

The best way. The best quarterback in the league, and I would always take him. The Mahomes that we have seen recently with Dak at his best, I think Dak will outperform Patrick Mahomes. And what you said about the defenses giving Patrick Mullen's truck, the Broncos

game trouble, the Jags defense actually like pretty good, even though we don't talk about them a lot. Jacks defense really bad. Passing defense? The Jags? I mean, I thought the Jaggs overall, they were supposed to be good, they haven't been good. Oh, I thought the Jags passing defense is good. Sorry, that's even bad for Mohams.

That's supposed to be time. But DAC has really thrived against top 10 defenses. We can take a look at this. Against top 10 defenses, they are first in points with 27. Total yard. It's almost 390. I'm passing her. It's 270.

So, Brew, that, now that I've shown you this, I do think it's going to be a shootout. So I do think Mahomes is going to put up some numbers. But I think Dak is just playing out of his mind. I think George Pickens is going crazy. You are, I guess here's, I think, the distinction. I know we have to move on. You are, I don't think. I know Brew called this a playoff game, and that bothered you because it's not literally a

playoff game. But we are the show that created must win. that we do in week one. So we do take some, you know, creative licensing. So you weren't for me. I don't. You are right. You were right.

The Broncos game was a huge game. And they blew it. They had a fourth quarter lead and they blew it. And the Broncos, you know, created a lot of pressure on Patrick and Patrick didn't play well. But for the Cowboys, this is to me must win as far as their season's over. Their playoff hopes are dead if they don't run the table. And for the Chiefs, they will, they have, and I think they know this, they have six games left, including games against Houston that's good all of a sudden.

The Chargers, the Broncos, after this, they can afford to lose one of them. So you are not giving any credits the wrong word, but affording any part of your analysis to be. Pressure? Yeah. like this is for Kansas City that this is you are going to see a ultra dialed in Mahomes like it and I'm not saying you're wrong for doing that it just seems like your I just feel like if it is the seven-seated chiefs against anyone in the first round of the playoffs other than your Patriots you're picking them because you're like and so they get I think some of that applies like and I know that like we joke that you say the Cowboys are always S Bob I don't feel like the Cowboys are viewed this year like the Bills view this year or the Ravens. They're kind of like, hey, look, let's make a little run here, guys. Like, let's see, let's see what happens.

First year, coach, they were kind of, now they're on. Because they started so bad. I think. So I feel like they're just playing loose. But I feel like the, and maybe the Chiefs are playing a little tighter. But, oh, my goodness, it's time for the hottest segment in all the sports. It's upset alert. First, let's take a look at the standings.

How did we score? Oh, I'm narrowing the gap here. I mean, you just need, listen, Greg, did you guys know. Favors? And I'm not. Picking the Colts. Brew, very, very unlucky to go against what he actually believed in. That was unwise.

And KW, you didn't deserve that cover. What? Lost by six. I understand. But they, they, I deserve. I deserve 7.5 points. Oh, you want to change the, you want to change it. Lose by six and it's a 13 a half.

Go ahead. We're short on time. Yeah, well, I'm going to blow you guys out of the water this week. Whoa. Because it's going to be the Carolina Panthers upsetting the L.A. Rams. Oh, I don't hate it. And here's why. So the Rams cruised a victory Sunday night.

They beat up a team that was supposed to be really competitive. Then they all go home and they watch the game Monday night. and they watch Carolina like, oh my God, these guys can't play dead. Right? That all those turnovers, they couldn't do anything with it. So now we fast forward. They're flying across the country. They're going to play Carolina.

It's a virtual bye week. They've won six in a row. The game starts at 10 o'clock a.m. If you're a West Coast team, so by the time they wake up and realize, oh, these guys came to play, it's going to be late in the fourth quarter. And know what they're not going to do? They're not going to have Rico Doudo only carry the ball. What was it, six times last game?

He tweeted out. He wasn't happy about that. A little confused face. I'm confused, too, because his record, when he carries 10 or more, they're 6 and 1. When he carries 10 or less, they're 0 in 5. So give him the ball a bunch of times. Let's see whether or not the Rams actually wake up or whether they, and this is what always happened.

I've been part of these games where I would have bet my house. that we were going to beat some team because they were so banged up and they were playing so poorly and then suddenly we end up going, how did they beat us? How did we lose that game? Can I?

I think that's a good. Can I just ask you a very quick question? Because you know how much personal affection I have for you and how much respect I have for your football. I always seems like something's covered. Right. But in all your years watching, coaching, covering football, has there ever been a team that you were like,

you know what they need to do? Run the ball this. Or is it, is it, has there ever been a day? Where is like, where, where you're like, you know what? They run the ball too much and that's the problem. I was actually watching a whole study on running versus basketball last and the probability of winning or losing versus what you. And running the ball is actually shown to give a high.

Okay. All right. I'll forward you there. All right, thanks coach. Wilds. I'm sorry. But the giants are taking down your boys. Well, I was just going to say he would be fine with this.

I kind of like this one too. Thank you, Coach. Say hi. No, go ahead. Let's hear it. One, again, I'm big on due dates. Yep. And they've won nine straight as a young team.

There's even as level-headed as they may be for youngsters, as much as Rabel's warning against it, they probably are starting to think, feel themselves a little bit. And I know last week they didn't look great and that's part of it as well. They could have lost last week, all right, to the Bengals. All right. So they are on, and I think whoever,

I think the Giants coach is going to get a boost from the new defensive coordinator because they do have talent on that side of the ball, haven't been playing well. So I think that gives them a boost. I mean, I guess. And whoever is the quarterback, whether it's Jamis or I don't know if Dart might be back,

whichever one is going to give them an emotional boost. because James just does that. And Dart is kind of like that type of personality as well with the charisma. So I think they're going to come out. They're not going to be like, we're done into the season. We got, you know, we're not playing for anything. I think they're going to come out inspired and take you guys down. They said blitz them coming off the bus too.

Light them up. They got nothing to lose. Got two offensive linemen injured. So that is a concern. They are not feeling themselves at all. Like the locker room was almost, you'd think that they lost against the Bengals, which are a sneaky good. A quick episode of Pucks and I feel of football, and I've been hot covering. We know who you're taking. You're taking the Cowboys.

I do think the Cowboys are going to win, but I am taking one of my newfound teams. Houston, your problem. Trademark. In a good way. Bad news for the Colts. I got Texans straight up beating the Colts. I think they're just super hot. We just saw the Colts have an issue with the Chiefs defense.

Well, the Texans defense is better in every category. Now, they're also fifth best against the run. So they're going to take Jonathan Taylor out of the game and put the ball into Daniel Jones hands, make him try to solve the problems. Let's see how the quarterbacks have done in the last three games. Well, Trevor didn't do well. Cam Ward actually did okay. And Josh Allen got sacked.

I think it was a career high time. And then finally, Colts, a little bit of a swooning. And coach mentioned it in tears. Seven and one, but in November, one and two. You mentioned that? Coach was advocating for them. Oh, sorry, the opposite. Yeah, I actually totally disagree.

I can't believe you're not going with the Cowboys. All day long, you're talking about the Cowboys. But zero points, but your confidence is clearly more on the Cowboys. But we have to go to Nick's picks. We don't have time for next picks. So listen, no, we just don't have, we got to move because you guys, When I go one and two, we got plenty of time. When I go undefeated and I got robbed of a 3-0 weekend, that's fine, the push, it is what it is.

And the locks, which I don't agree with, but Wilds made us add, they went 1-un defeated. Undefeated. Undefeated. 2-0-1, 3-0 weekend, and I'm back at 500 right at Thanksgiving, just as we hoped for a stretch run. First game, put my money where my mouth is this week. Chiefs minus 3 and a half. The Chiefs can win the Super Bowl. Maybe they are not going to.

Maybe they're having a down year. Everyone agrees they can win the Super Bowl. The Cowboys cannot. The Cowboys have not won three consecutive games in years. Years. Is that true? Two years. Yeah, I mean, it would have been two years.

They didn't have done it this year. They didn't do it last year. That's years. The Chiefs are going to win by at least for it. Yeah, whatever. It's been years. It's been multiple years. It's very simple.

Next, just show me the next. one dust because we got to go fast here. It's going to be close. Yeah, probably. I just think it's going to be close. It feels like a three or four point game. I'm not sitting here saying the bears are going to win. I'm sitting here saying the bears are going to keep it close because the Eagles can get up 21-0.

You let teams keep it close. And so I'll take the bears. I'm getting seven points against a team that right now doesn't have an offensive identity. And last but not least, my favorite one. This is the lock? I don't do lock, but this is my favorite. So if you want to call it that, listen, the Vikings quarterback situation, has been a disaster all year.

They're now on their third guy. So JJ's been awful. Carson Wentz was not very good. The guy who is clearly behind all of them on the depth chart, Max Brasmer, who started his college career, I believe, at New Hampshire, and played for a year at Minnesota. He's going to be starting as Mike McDonald on the road

in the second loudest stadium in the NFL. How many points do they need to cover the 11 and 1 half? Maybe just 12. All take Seattle, laying the 11 and a half, and I don't do locks, but if I was going to do one, that one's my favorite. There it is. 11 and a half? 11 and a half. Sam Donald Rebend game.

Oh. Coach, I didn't even think about that. Great tape. That's a good one. Who's feasting? Oh, yes. I'm the turdict. You didn't want to say it?

No, I forgot about it. What's your ducking is? The greatest rivalry in sports is here. Top ranked defending national champion Ohio State. Looking to snap Michigan's win streak in the game. All starts at 9 a.m. 3-hour big noon kickoff live from Ann Arbor. Then it's Michigan, Ohio State at noon only on Fox. I think Michigan does begin.

Really? Yeah. Holy cow. Really? Wow. You're now entering the no bull zone sponsored by Credible. Great rates, none of the bull. Packers Lions on Fox.

Our team will be live from Detroit starting at 11. Game is at one. Packers looking to eat up the Lions once again. First matchup was a 27-13 mashing, although we do not count week one on the program. I do. Brew, who needs this game more, the Packers are the Lions? Both of them need it.

That's why it was a double must win, according to. Yeah, I mean. This qualified you, though. Both of them need this win incredibly, but if I have to pick one, I'm going to go Detroit. It's in Detroit. Green Bay has the better record. So, I mean, technically they're ahead of them in the playoff race.

The tie, you know, may make it where the tie breakers not head to head. But they did beat Detroit earlier. I think Green Bay is feeling better about itself just because it's coming off two wins, including a solid one over Minnesota. And obviously the Lions are coming off not a great performance against the Giants. And then they lost and only scored nine points against Philadelphia. So, and I think the Lions are. reeling a bit and trying to figure out like I think they're surprised that they're not is that

they've fallen off a little bit now Jemir Gibbs is saving them and playing great but outside of him I just think they're they're not close to what they used to be so I think they need this to kind of get their swagger back yeah I think green bay's come back down to earth from the early days if we're going to go undefeated and then they had the major upsets and so there's much more of a reality setting in about how consistent they have. have to be. The thing that I struggle with in Detroit is they make the decision that they make with the offensive coordinator. The head coach takes over play calling duties. It looks good early, then take a step back. There seems to be more, I don't know if it's dysfunction, but it's

definitely not a well-oiled machine right now offensively or anything near what we've been used to. So I think Detroit needs it from the perspective. They need it and they need to be really efficient offensively and have consistency there if they're going to make some kind of run. I think it's the Packers without question because I think Detroit, maybe they shouldn't, but I think Detroit is very comfortable with who they are. Like I think Detroit, even though they have not been as good this year as they were last year, in my opinion, even the year before, because of Dan Campbell and because all of the main characters are the same, I think that they feel like, listen, we have.

We've had a couple bad games, bad moments. We're going to be fine. I could see this getting away from the Packers if the Packers lose this game. And I actually think this is where beating Detroit in week one could work against them, which is, man, we start the year we played this team. We blow them out. You know, we're going to have a great defense. Jordan Love played well in that game. And it's like, and since then, not only do we not have a moment.

to really hang our hat on, but now we played them again and we lost. So I still look at the Lions as not top tier but legitimate Super Bowl contender. And I right now don't look at the Packers that way. And so maybe that's my, you're right, the records are essentially the same, but Green Bay because of the ties out of them. I just have a little more faith in the Lions infrastructure. And so I think the Packers, this would be a great win and a needed win. And I also think the loser of this game is in some trouble.

Right. Can miss the playoffs pretty easily. They both have tough schedules. Correct. If Lions lose 41% chance, they miss the playoffs. Yeah. Live from New York, it's still wishing you a very happy Thanksgiving.

It's first thing's first overtime. Today, the coolest segment about stats in all of sports. Featuring some stats about the Chief's offense? Is that true? Coming up? Well, You'll see. Okay.

It's going to be cool. It's going to be cool. Meanwhile, can Joe Burrow outplay Lamar in his return? We'll find out in a second. But right now, Bears headed to Philadelphia seven-point underdogs, even though both teams are 8 and 3, Danny. Here's Eagles defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio. Take a listen.

They're under center a good bit, you know, probably more than most teams in this league. And kudos to him and his staff. for bringing that young quarterback along who I don't think ever played under center in college. And he's doing a great job. And they have fought through any of the pitfalls of that.

And now they got a quarterback that is executing their offense the way they want to. Of course, that's Fangio on Caleb. What would a win over the Eagles mean for Caleb? It would be validating. It would be everything. I mean, because I will concede all of the things that you guys have said about the Bears.

This is a step up in class. Like, that's all true. They haven't beaten a team with a winning record. Easiest strength of schedule. When they played good teams at times, it looked lopsided. Like, that's all true. But, man, they've won eight of nine. And so if we were going to rank vibes, bears top five.

Oh, their vibes are great. That part is. Vives are excellent. Even though good, better, best is one of the corniest post-game slogans there's ever been. Top five. Hard disagree. Are you writing down to your Twitter? Wild's going to do a vibes ranking while you go ahead.

I would love you to do a vibes ranking. Just consider greatest quarterback in the history of the franchise and arguably greatest coach in the history of the franchise presently employed by the Bears. Factor that into your vibes rankings. Eagles vibes are not. And so I think there is just a time when I can't show you a number that's like this is the reason the Bears are going to win, though there are plenty in their favor. Best rushing teams since their by week, top and explosive plays. There are plenty of things that point to the bears being good. It's just, I actually think they're going to pull off this upset.

Really? I think they're going to win. Just like when we talk about the Patriots, we're like, well, that Bill's game mattered a lot for them in terms of everyone else believing in them because they beat an established team. Or for the Broncos, when they beat the Chiefs, it was like, well, okay, now we've got to take the Broncos seriously. That's what this opportunity is for the Bears on Friday, and I think they're going to do it. Well, I don't think they're going to do it, but I do agree with you that this would be huge.

This would actually make me, and I already believe in Caleb to a degree, and I think his potential is bright, his future is bright, but this would make me far more of a believer in him and in the Bears because, like you said, they haven't really beaten anybody. They beat one team with a

winning record, Pittsburgh, which is on the decline, and they had a backup quarterback. This would be the first. first great win of Caleb's career. No doubt. Now last year they beat the Rams, but that was in week four, and the Rams started one in five. They were struggling at that point, getting beat.

I personally really did enjoy beating the Packers in week 18 last year, but. But that was when Malique Willis had quarterback, Jay-Lo was out. And then this year, like I said, when they've stepped up in class, so to speak, they've gotten hammered. And so this would be a phenomenal win.

And the fact that Philly is, coming off a bad loss and at home. It's in Philadelphia. So Philadelphia is like, we got to write the ship and play well. So they're ready for this game. And if Chicago goes in there and wins, that would be huge. I can't overstate how big that would be for Caleb and for the Bears. Well, listen, I want to ask you a question.

Because Danny did his sleight of hand yesterday with the, here's the Patriots numbers. Oh, wait, no, it's really the Bears numbers. and it's not just strength of schedule, you know, similarities here and that. Their resumes are similar in this regard. Both had week one losses to awful teams that look like, what the hell? Like the Patriots losing to the Raiders is the single most bizarre result of the season, I feel. And J.J. McCarthy playing like an all-pro for 15 minutes is the single most bizarre occurrence of the decade. So like both of those.

They both have, you know, obviously your two quarterbacks, obviously new head coaches. If they win this game and they get to nine and three, you guys are sitting at 10 and two, do you think they will deserve the same type of respect that we are, right? And I'm not even trying to, the past aren't getting a ton. Right. They are not a ton. And so that's where I was going with it. Even though I think in your bones, you feel like what the Patriots.

are doing is more sustainable than what the bears are doing. And that may or may not be true. And Drake May has been better than Caleb this year. Oh, no question. And so, like, having a quarterback that you 100% trust, whereas Caleb has been improving, but less consistent than Drake. Like, I would even concede that too. No, I think Drake's definitely been better than Caleb, but I think the Bears' offense

has been sneaky excellent. Now, maybe it's because of the run game and that Ben Johnson in Detroit built a lot of it off the run game, explosives in the run game that then opens up stuff for down. field passing. Like the Bears, in this football game, the reason I'm not going as far as you is saying, I expect the Bears to win or I think they're going to win, but I did just pick the Bears plus seven as one of my picks. And it's because I think they right now have the better offense.

I think the Bears' offense is better than the Eagles offense. And so you give me the better off. Do I think the defensive deficits are enough to make it to where the Eagles should blow them out? I don't. I also think that if they win this game, there is a, we get to see a very, a much more interesting Bears team, the final six weeks, Danny, because by winning this game, I don't want to say they have games to play with, but they will have a margin of error that where they're like, okay, we expect to make the playoffs. They have games. They have two, they have both Green Bay games. They have the Detroit games.

They have San Francisco and they have Cleveland. No, I understand. But if you get to nine, if you get to nine and three, I think you would, it would be a tragedy if you miss the playoffs. If they beat the Eagles on Black Friday to get to nine and three and then, you know, they'd be a heavy favorite. But I don't think they should be thinking that way. No, but I guess what I'm saying, the point I'm making is I think you can start, I believe

in the NFL, there's different types of coaching that you do throughout the year. And one of the coaching styles is preparing for the playoffs. You know what I mean? trying to work on things that we are going to need in the playoffs. I think that if the Bears win this game, they get to start doing that. Like, all right, we're going to be in the postseason. What are, you know, what is, what type of team do we want to be for the postseason? You disagree, Brew?

Yeah, I don't think they could count their chickens at that point. You know, nine wins. I get it. They're not likely to lose out. But with the games they have, Green Bay twice, as you mentioned, Detroit. Like, in that division, and in San Francisco, too. think that would be a little too hard. But this is the hardest game.

They don't have any game on their schedule that should be harder than at Philadelphia. Right. At Philly. No, I think they should go at it. Like, we're still playing to win. Like Green Bay to next week. We can't say, okay, let's start working on stuff. Cleveland, okay, but still, that defense.

Like, look at that schedule. That is tough. I think they would make it if they probably, you know, they probably would make it. But I'm just saying you can't play around with those games. Yeah, and the division would not be locked up because the lions and the Packers are still really good. So I don't think that they would backslide in any way. But again, changing how everyone talks about you and all of a sudden it would not be like, oh, this is a cute little story. And it just being validating for everything.

It would be validating for Ben Johnson, for Caleb, for the offense, for the record. And then you get to sit there and like, oh, they wake up as the two seed. So what if it goes the other way? Well, that would not be great. Don't get blown out. I don't get blown out. Yeah. I think they have.

It's like a free role. I think it's close to a free role. I mean, well, I think image-wise is close to a free role. Nobody's going to kill them if they lose by four or whatever. But where it does start to hurt you is just the playoff race. Correct. Because the schedule is still so tough. That's where it would be a problem.

Can I add something to this conversation that I don't want to be misquoted. quoted on this. I am not saying this is how I would have it. But Brew, you did Bruce ballot this week and it was very interesting because it's like two quarterbacks and then a running back, a wide receiver, a defensive end for a three-win

team because what has become a quarterback only award, it's hard to find five worthy quarterbacks. I do not think, Caleb, and I know Danny doesn't, I assume you don't either, explain anything close to what I consider an MVP level. But there are a lot of

folks that love the quarterback wins and the touchdown interception ratio. And if in a standalone game coming off a game that if you didn't watch Caleb last week against Steelers and just looked at the stat line, set line's unbelievable. Watching the game, it was good, but there was the awful moment and whatever it is. I truly believe that if they win this game, a sports TV topic is, hey, is Caleb Williams in the MVP conversation? You know, if the bears are nine and three. From your mouth to God's ears.

But honestly, do you see that? Well, while this conversation is huge. No, but. I think it would be a conversation about being in the conversation would be warranted. Which is where I don't even know where we've had those guys for. But if you're listening. If you just had the list four or five quarterbacks. If it was all quarterbacks.

He's not a top five QB yet. No, he'd be on the bubble. I'd be like, who's on the bubble of this list? Yeah, I mean, it's. And who does, you know what to be? Who deserves to be on the bubble? Like, you know who deserves me on the moment? Caleb Williams.

He'd be on the fourth quarter comeback. That's the thing is the fourth quarter comes. A lot of the like soft data that can help somebody get MVP votes, if not first place, the clutch stuff, not turning the ball over the comebacks. He's got rushing yards. He wouldn't be in the conversation to actually win it. Nobody's. But to get on the ballot as top-tower.

It's Stafford and Drake at this point to win it. But if somebody's going to have right now a five-quarterback ballot, which a lot of the voters will. A lot of the voters are only going to vote for quarterbacks. If they win this game, like, I think his name pops off on it, which would be crazy. You have great news if you like cool stuff. How good is Dak Prescott and George Pickens connection? Well, you're about to find out in the coolest segment about statistics in all of sports,

it's time for packed stats. This is cool. Thanks, Wilde. I think stats are cool, too. I thought I say the two in this cool briefcase. Stat number one. You mentioned it. Dak Prescott and George Pickens.

The number is 134. As in the passerating when DAC targets George Pickens. Why is that noteworthy? That's the second best quarterback two receiver passerating through 11 games since Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. And Nick, your bar is too much. That's too much. What do you mean? Objectively, it's correct.

There's a question mark at the end of it. Is it the new Mahomes to Tyree? No. People are asking. Do numbers lie? Yes, all the time. I guess I kind of walked into that one. I'm just saying this trade and this pairing going this well this soon,

when there is legitimate question, like, why is C.D. Lamb dropping the ball so much? Is Dac targeting? Does he trust Pickens more than C.D? What's the ceiling for this? They have to. Franchise tag not good enough? You have to sign him. Like, this duo has been everything Dallas thought it could be and more. And it's honestly been historically great. Can I throw it a little addition on there?

Minimum of 90 targets, by the way. We got real sample size. We ripped, you know, to no end, the mica trade. And I know it's probably more impactful than this trade, but they deserve credit for this trade. And the Steelers are getting, I don't know, I'm not in Pittsburgh local radio. They're getting a pass. It seems like it. Our offense could use George Pickens.

I think the reason they're getting the past, it's a great trade for the Cowboys. And you guys know, I've really liked Pickens a lot and talked about his talent. I think most people feel like, and I agree, he wouldn't be doing this in Pittsburgh. Obviously, Aaron Rogers isn't as good as that.

But he was a problem in Pittsburgh. Like his attitude issues and all that stuff. He's been none of that in doubt. This has been awesome. I reject, not you've said this, the folks asking, is he better than C.D. Lamb? He is not a better football player than C.D. Lamb. He might be having a better year. He's definitely having a better year. But part of that CD's injury and part of that also, I think, is team still treat C.D. like the number one receiver.

So he gets the more advantageous matchups. I am, however, this is the maybe controversial part. I'm not ready to say this was a great trade by Dallas. Really? Yeah, because I. What might happen in Austin? It's not just the what might happen. It's I don't know. They didn't trade for him and sign him.

So I don't know where. And so if right, they have to keep him. Now you can have a one year trade where a guy leaves that works out great if you're going for a Super Bowl. But if this team finishes eight, eight and one misses the playoffs and Cidie Lamb signs for $40 million a year somewhere else. I'm sorry, pick and sign somewhere else. Remember, they're only going for interesting. Well, yeah. Not signing Pickens at this point, even on the Dallas scale of calamity, would be pretty high.

Well, Jerry said yesterday, I think, that he will be back. But what does that mean? He also said that about Micah. That's true. And also, I'm telling you right now, the idea that, like, oh, George Pickens, who everyone's saying how great he is, Orlovsky is saying he might be the best receiver in football, is going to take the franchise. tag and be like happily, no problem. I think that is.

You do have to have the basic contract year questions. Yeah. Yeah. That'll be a big topic for the office season. All right. Another cool stat. Other side of this game. Okay.

How are they going to slow down, DAC to Pickens? The Chief's defense, we talk a lot about Mahomes. I'd actually expect the chief's defense to be the reason why you guys win this game. There you go. Against top 10 scoring offenses this year. Those offenses against the Chiefs are averaging eight points per game fewer, and that's a who's who. Ravens, Lions, Bills, and of course what we saw last week, the Colts. Mahomes was great in the fourth quarter and overtime of that game.

The Chief's offense came alive, but they won that game against Indianapolis because Steve Spagnolo's defense once again rose to the challenge. So when we're talking about, man, DAC and the Cowboys offense, maybe the key to the whole game is your defense. Listen, I think that and there's been a lot of shots taken locally, I felt, and certainly questions asked about Chris Jones production this year. And again, maybe I'm giving him a pass that I shouldn't, but I also think that a detackle past 30 who's played seven straight 20 game seasons. If he is, you know, trying to make sure he has it for the finish line, I'm fine with that personally. And his impact in that game Sunday, he won us the game.

He jumped off the screen. And Jonathan Taylor, the three and outs, those were Chris Jones related. I am far more concerned about this than Mahomes' ability to carve up the Cowboys all of a sudden good defense. Because the chiefs have, you're right that they've done it. They have not been able to generate a pass rush this season, Aside from Chris, and Chris, again, it's just kind of as of late. And DAC with time is deadly. And so this is actually the part of the game that concerns me the most.

It is, is the Cowboys offensive line going to give Dak enough time that we can't cover those great receivers? Dan, go ahead. Sorry, bro. Well, I was going to say, I'm with you, Danny. Like, I do think the Chief's defense clearly steps up when the, in most cases, when the competition is fiercest. And I don't think the Cowboys are going to have a heyday against that defense. So I think I said 27-24 Chiefs, I think they'll be able to hold them in check because that defense just- 24 is still pretty good.

When the Ravens scored 24, you're like, hey, they're scoring 24. Yeah, but for the Cowboys, if they hold them to 24, you feel good, right? Yes. You'd sign up for that. I'd sign up for it right now. And 27-24 is an under. Less than the total points expected. What's the total points?

It's 52 and a half. So right there. Right on the number. Bruises Sharp. I'm ready for the next. Ready for the last one? Yeah. This one's going to be a little bit of a journey.

Oh, these are the best. Statistical journey. Maybe it's the, makes it the coolest. Yeah. I don't know. Quarterback pressure is going to be the thing that decides Lions Packers. So Jared Goff, when he's not pressured, has the highest pass rating in the NFL with a clean pocket. When he's pressured, his quarterback rating drops to 65, which is absolutely.

it's a massive drop. Let's try to put it into context with the quarterback he's facing. Jordan Love, when not pressured, has the fourth best passer rating in the NFL, and he drops to the 29th best

passer under pressure. So both of them are top four when it's a clean pocket. They are both well below average when they are pressured. What about the company they keep in terms of the differential? to 40-year-olds.

These guys, it would make sense. Joe Flacco and Aaron Rogers don't want to be hit, so they get rid of the ball really quickly. These are the two of the three biggest gaps from clean pocket to pressured pocket for love and golf. So the question is going to be which one of these guys is under more pressure in this game. That's a crazy.

I have to tell you something. Here we go. I like that. This is a disaster for me, that graphic. Can you put that graphic back up? This is a. disaster. Because when I thought this was just a Jared Gough thing, Danny, open your briefcase. Oh, you, I slid in there a tiny hand. But fair's fair. Rogers, Flacco, and Love all have huge

hands. Like Rogers has like a historically huge hand. Jordan Love too. So I can't blame. I was like, obviously this is about old tiny hands when he gets pressured. But he's up against giant-handed fellas. So I don't know. It really threw off what my, my, my projected analysis was going to be. Um, so then I guess so then does that to you, Brewingin, the two most important people in this game are Aiden Hutchinson and Micah Parsons. I mean, according to that, yeah, for sure. Wow, that's interesting. Look, I like Green Bay. Obviously, I feel like this game could go either way. When there are two good teams in the division, I tend to think you're not going to sweep. So that bodes well for the Lions.

I'm hoping there's a sweep, obviously, with the Packers. But, yeah, that's interesting. You know what? That's beyond interesting. That's cool. Wow. That's that it was cool. Victory!

Lions are fifth in the NFL, generating pressures. Packers are 14th. Lions have three more sacks this year than the Packers down. Troy, can I put you on the spot? Which quarterback is great under pressure? Drake May's number one. Drake May has been the best. Did you know that?

Let's just call it. Drake May's been unbelievable. I didn't realize he was number one. Yeah, it's, we were changed. And again, obviously everyone drops. That's the thing. I feel like every like 20, like my homes is not good. No, no, everyone drops.

But again, those numbers are relative to the under pressure step. So someone has to be the best under pressure. Drake May has been great. Wow, turn this into Drake segment. This is a cool second. Coming up next. Right back to it. Right back to the office.

We trust more. I might stick around. They're both great quarterback. No, the Mahomes wasn't great early. It's just very good. Nice. This is very good. Well, it's.

Tomorrow it's America's team against America's team. Which one am I talking about? Doesn't matter. Chiefs head to Dallas to face the Cowboys. Terducken is on the line. Delicious. Both teams with. with huge wins last weekend.

Dack, though, not riding that wave. Here he is on last week's victory ahead of this week's matchup with the Chiefs. It's vital. You've got to reset. Yeah, that was a great win, great tough win, emotional, as you said, coming back from down 21.

But it was only to be celebrated that night, to be honest with you. And I think I said that in the presser. Like, especially on the short week, you've got to move forward. You got to make sure you're locked into the details. The last thing you can do is be living on what you did last week.

You're as good as what you did today. and how you prepared. And we've got to keep that in mind. And if we want to win, it's going to be on our preparation each and every day. So a ton of attention, as always, on the quarterback matchup in a spot like this. Willie, who do you trust more? Mahomes or Dak? I trust Dak, but I even trust his office line more because if you look at the tape,

I mean, their operation is cleaning because of how well they're playing up front. You know, he's been sacked 16 times on 134 pressures, which is outstanding for office that had a lot of issues prior to this year. And when you see him operate is because he has time in the pocket. He's thrown on rhythm. He's getting the ball out on time. We now view George Pickings differently because of how their relationship is transforming. And I think right now, if he wins this game, we really have to put him in an MVP conversation.

Because he's just been playing that well, that clean, and that elite. So I love that. I love the Cowboys winning this one. I can't see him entering the MVP conversation. It'll be a hater. It's not that. It's, Dack has been unbelievable. I loved Nick's take on saying, like,

on saying like he could be second team all pro. And they lost that Carolina game. They lost that Arizona game. That lost this happened though. No, I know, but they're in second place in their division, not a lot to make the playoffs far from a lock time. I can't get there with you on MVP, but deck has been incredible. Yeah, that's.

Yeah, that's. Great. The defense struggled so badly. Now they've made some improvements. And, and he's just, he's just carried them. And when you go into tomorrow's game, Dax played really well on Thanksgiving. They've had almost a 17 point differential.

winning differential over the last three thanks year. And so there's that. He's coming off the comeback victory. I like that as well. And then when you look at Patrick, the last three games, he's been under an 80 quarterback rating, which is the only other time he's did it, has done that was 2019.

So he's in a slump. Now, they won in overtime. I appreciate that. But the fact that they didn't score from the three yard line, first goal from three, that bothered me. So if it was one game, that I had to win the Super Bowl, I would typically take Patrick. Yeah.

But going with them Cowboys, Coach, say it with your chest. You can say it. I'm saying, I'm saying anyone by test right now. Yeah. So it's funny, like, I can't show you a number or a trend that I care about that would say Mahomes over Dak. Because Dak has been better. Yeah. The Cowboys offense has been better.

But I trust, man, I'm sorry. Because you're going off the, you're going off his playoff. resume. You're going off the fact that he wears the cape, but Dak has been equally good. Actually, he's been better. He's been better. But trust, I will trust Mahomes. And I also will say, like you talked about the offensive line, I will trust the Chief's defense. The Cowboys defense has been better recently. Yes. But like in terms of better relative to themselves, not better than the Chiefs. They started off horrible. Start off horrible. They've made trades. They've gotten a little healthier. But Spagnolo comes to play. And he has had a tremendous

of success against top 10 offenses that they've, Detroit struggled with them, Baltimore struggled with them, Buffalo ended up getting to 27, but it was not an easy 20, 27 for them. They've done a nice job. Last week against Indianapolis, they did a really nice job. So I just think it's a tougher matchup deck going against the Chiefs defense than it is Mahomes going against the Cowboys defense. Yeah, I see that. One thing that's interesting, though, is Kansas City now has had the same amount of turnovers of the last four games, six, that they had in the previous 18 games. So it's really uncharacteristic run for them offensively.

So that to me is problematic. And they solved it or does that mean regression? No. No, yeah, which direction are we heading? Right. And last week, as the pick goes down to the three-yard line, so it doesn't look like they've quite solved that and it's going to continue trending in that direction,

that could be a relationship. I guess I think I'm just a little annoyed with your trust factor. Can you watch this Dallas team? be down two and one zip and Dak put on the cape and wield this team to victory time after time, either with George Pickens or if it was Ferguson. Like, he responded in a situation of football.

That four-minute, that four-minute offense was, you know, teach tape because of the way Dak played. Dak has been great. I don't want this to take away anything from him. Like, if it was Dak against Josh Allen, I think it's a different conversation. I know. I think, me and Coach, you're willing

to be prisoners in the moment, and you're like, uh-uh. I have too much equity in Who patchyote Mahomes? Yes. Yes. Guilty as charged. No, and to your point, if I was going into a Super Bowl game. And this is not the Super Bowl.

I understand. But in this moment in time and for at this point, Dax playing better and I think he's going to play better tomorrow. He's listening. The Cowboys, again, I will say it's a weird thing. I admit it. Like, the Cowboys' offense is better than the Chiefs offense. Has been.

Dack has played better than Mahomes. And I trust Mahomes. I don't know what to tell you, man. I don't know what to tell you. The man went one for six in the Red Zone last week, and we're like, no. You're asking me to, like, men-and-black Minderacer the last seven years. Is that not what we do as analysts? No, I don't think it is.

I think we should factor it in, and we should factor in the sample and the body of the work and the trust and just the ability of like, this is a big game with 50 million people watching. I trust Patrick Mahomes in big games with 50 million plus people watching. He's been a pretty safe thing for the majority of my 30s. Look, there are great. great players that go through periods where they don't play great. That's true. That's what the period he's going through right now.

Yeah. And again, I know people expect me to be like, and here's the number that tells you why. I'm like, nah, it's really just how I feel. It's just kind of how I feel. Tomorrow night, when the food coma is setting in, we used to be watching movies. Now we're watching the triple header, the third game of the day. Bangles Ravens, Joe Burrow makes his return to face Lamar, who missed practice Monday. Did come back yesterday.

Says he's good to go. Here's Lamar on the matchup and the history against the day. the bankers. Back and forth. You know, it seems like every time we paid them, we've been going back and forth. Great quarterback over there, you know, great receiving core. So just looking forward to it again, you know. Hopefully they'll be going back and forth.

Hopefully it's one side and then it's our side. So, yeah. Good job catching himself there. Coach, same question for this game. Who do you expect to have a better game? Burrow or Lamar? It's hard to think that Joe Burroughs, going to have a better game. He's thrown 36 passes the entire season. He's coming off of an injury.

So there's that component of it. But these games have always been high scoring. It was at like 41, 38 and overtime, something like that in 35, 34. So that's traditionally what it's been. It's not like the Bengals defense has suddenly gotten so much better during the course of the season. But Lamar's struggling. It's three, last three games, one TD, two interceptions, 71 passer rating. being 57% completion. And he's got 20 rushes for 57 yards. So he's not running the ball very well, 2.85 yards at carry. And then he's been sacked seven times,

which is over 50% more than the rate he was being sacked last year. All those things lead me to think that Joe Burrow has a chance to outdo Lamar, even though he hasn't been playing. Yeah, this is a guy that habit for Lamar. I think when you talk about what he's been able to do, it's been modest thus far to your point, coach. but historically, I'm going to take a page out of your book, Danny. This is what he looks like.

Got the graphic. He dominates the thing. So it's okay for you? I'm just saying. I'm playing by your rules. What did happen? He's 10 and 1 versus the Bengals. This graphic was not conjured up in the last 90 seconds since I made my point.

My point is. Interesting. With all that said, Lamar has to ramp it up. This team goes as he goes. I think he understands the urgency in the moment. There is no more room for let down games. I expect him to play big. I think Derek Henry's going to move the sticks.

Mark Andrews is going to be big in the red zone. He's going to close games. That's what's suspected of him, and I expect him to dominate the Bengals like he's done historically. Yeah, and listen, I think sometimes we just want to make these conversations, like, who's better, Burrow and Lamar? But you guys know better than I do. It's a matchup thing.

It's who's healthy. It's who are you playing? It's where's the game? What's the weather? There's a million factors here. And I know Lamar's been struggling. It's very hard for me to see Joe Burrow, having been out for as long as he's been out,

coming in, going to Baltimore, playing against the defense that... Hold the teams under 20 points? Right, six straight games holding teams under 20 points. And Burrow lights up this version of Baltimore. Now, if Lamar is just straight up hurt, okay, fine. But the Bengals defense has been a get-right spot for a lot of teams this year. So I'm put in my faith in the guy who's been playing, even if he's been playing banged up,

as opposed to the guy going against the way better defense coming off the injury. Yeah, but I... went into the Jets game, not thinking that we were going to see it 7-3 at the half with the Ravens trailing. Totally fair. I never expected that. And I get what you're saying about the guy who's been playing, but there is something to fresh legs. And there is something to being healthy, like physically healthy across the board. Now, I know we've got some rust that we have to knock off, but that might be an egg-frey.

The defenses are in different classes, right? Oh, without a doubt. Yeah, they're in different classes. Baltimore's defense, though, has slowly emerged. It's not like they started in a different class. I agree, yeah. No question about that. But I think now we have about a six-game sample of Baltimore's defense rounding into form.

Some of it against terrible opponents. No doubt this is a huge step up for them. It's a tough test for Burgo. It's not even close. Bengals' defense is garbage. They're not good. I expect Baltimore's defense of Lamar to put on a show tomorrow. And I expect Lamar to be the MVP, I hope not MVP, but come back into life.

We're actually speaking MVP's coming up. I will be the MVP of having seconds on Thanksgiving, but that's not the question. Thanksgiving's the best. Food, family, football, friends, and then Black Friday, you can hang out with your friends here at FTFOT. Yeah. Good looking group.

We got the whole crew together live Friday reacting to the three games, previewing Caleb, and I guess they're playing the Eagles. And so it's going to be a big game. And we'll be talking about it all. 10 to noon, come hang out with us. on Friday. Time now, though, for a Thanksgiving edition of Who You Got. Got to get on record with these games tomorrow. First game of the slate, Packers Lions. Coverage begins 11 a.m. Eastern on Fox. Packers 7 3 and 1, Lyons 7 and 4. Massive game for the

NFC North Standings. Both coming off wins last week. Coach, who you got? Yeah, I'm going with Green Bay in this game. And Dan Campbell, I respect the fact that he made the move that he made. and he didn't fire the offensive coordinator. He just transitioned play calling. And that's been a little bit up and down. And Jemir Gibbs was fantastic last week. But his pattern is typically has a great game and then tends to take a step back

when you look it over the course of the season. So I think this is a little bit of a step back for him. And the play calling for me from Detroit isn't totally worked out yet. And that gives the edge of Green Bay. Will it? Yeah, I have the Lions, man. I think the Russian attack for the Lions has really popped up

the page. You talked about Jameer Gibbs, but also I think there's been an emphasis getting David Montgomery back in the folds as well. I also think the Lions understand like, hey, that almost a letdown game to the Giants. That's not who they are. I expect them to be more motivated because they're going against a worthy opponent. And also, let's not forget week one, right?

Week one, Lions, Packers, like the Lions have to get that lick back, right? They walked off that field. They ain't feel good about themselves. So this is an opportunity to do it on Thanksgiving. I think Jamira Gibbs is going to have another big game. I know just that coach about him, you know, not being able to bounce back. But I think right now he is their office. He has to respond in a positive way.

Yeah, I'm with you. I'll break the tie and say the Lions. They're at home. And week one, I think, matters. Familiarity with Thanksgiving, sure. This is just for a shot to continue to win the NFC North. Yes, sir. There's not really a bigger game that you can imagine

when neither one of these teams are in first place. They have virtually identical records. The Lions already lost to Green Bay here. So if the Lions have any shot at winning this division, they need this game tomorrow. Coach, you're the one with the upset. Who's the MVP of the game? Yeah, I'm going with Mike.

So he's kind of come alive the last few games. We've got two and it with three and a half sacks the last two games. And I think this game becomes a passing game. And Detroit's trail on the end and Michael Parsons ended up beating the difference. Really? Yeah, I got Jim Merri Gives, man. I love them. I think last week and through the rest of the season, he's just been explosive.

You know, his speed answers all the woes for the Lions. And I think he's going to have another big game. I think he's in the rhythm. I'm going, Aidan Hutchison. The both of these quarterback struggle when pressured. The Lions are just a little bit better at pressuring the quarterback. pressure tends to go better for the home team taking advantage of crowd noise. I'll take the best pass rusher on Detroit.

All right, let's get to Chiefs and Cowboys, highly anticipated game. Coming off, much-needed wins. Very simple question. Willie Cologne, who you got? I got the Cowboys. This is their day. This is the day where the Cowboys shine brighter than any other team. I think that we talk about, I think he's playing on the MVP level.

He's elite. I think what he's been able to do and how he's been able to manage this offense has been absolutely spectacular. We talked so much about Stafford's clean operation, his efficiency. We got to see what DAC is doing, man. And I also think right now this defense has been playing better. Give them credit. You talked about them being healthy. Quentin Williams has been a big factor. I think he's added level of leadership. They desperately need it. And overshone the rest of the group is getting healthy. I just suspect the Cowboys right now to shine. I expect them to beat the Chief tomorrow night. All right, coach. Join him. I'm growing with the Cowboys

as well. And as positive as it was for the chiefs to win in overtime like they did against the Colt, it was even more positive for the Cowboys to be able to come back from 21 points down and slay the dragon. They're really good on Thanksgiving. Dax playing exceptionally well.

I think that carries over and carries the day. So like the guilty as charged, I already know, but like sometimes I just am looking for reasons to be like, oh yeah, they are still the Chiefs. And the fourth quarter in overtime against the cold. felt like one of those.

You enter that game down 20 to 9 in the fourth quarter. You have no business winning. Then you win a game in regulation that you did not lead literally the entire time. That felt a lot like last year's chiefs. So I think the chiefs are bad. Yeah, I think five field goals at their answer. Yeah, that was a big part of it. And I'll just say this, as the lone guy picking the chiefs,

going to go way out on a limb and say Patrick Mahomes is going to be the MVP of this game. I know. I know. Can you believe it? I'm not even to give you any explanation. I'm not going to give you any explanation. I'm going to jump out there. That press guy.

Wow. He's going to be my MVP. I think he's going to light them up, man. Well, you're both wrong. All right. Here we go. It's going to be Giovante Williams. There we go.

Now have some analysis. And here's the reason why is they're going to put so much effort in stopping the passing game. There should be tons of opportunity in the running game. And Javentz has had an amazing year. He's averaging 4.95 yards of carry. It's a highest average since Ezekiel Elliott. Eight rushing touch. downs. Everything's going to be designed to stop CD and to stop DAC and take your pick.

They've got layers and layers. And this is the guy that's going to end up killing him. Javante Williams, I believe was available for three million bucks this off season. Yes. You know, Chiefs did not really do much to address their running back needs. He's been one of the we talk a lot about how the Cowboys have dysfunction and the Micah Trade and all that. The Pick and straight has worked out great for him. And this signing in terms of like bargain shopping, one of the best signings. You got to watch in the second half of that game against the Eagles, how he passed protected. I mean, he stuck his, he put his face in the fan a couple times with that.

He's a real player. Last but not least, King of the North, AFC North matchup, Bengals, Joe Burrow is back. Ravens on the massive winning streak, hoping that their quarterback is healthy. Very clearly, very easy question. Willie Colon, who you got? Yeah, I got the Ravens, man. I think this is a got to have a game for them. I think they have to stay pace.

Obviously, you know, for them, this is not just about Lamar. This is about them team getting back to being on brand. Rushing the ball, Derek Henry, you're talking about Mark Andrews. And also, I think this defense mandate, you know, they've been keeping opponents under 20 points. And I think there's a brand of football. They just have to get back to playing. That shaky win against the Jets didn't look, didn't feel good. I think they get it right against a very bad Bengals defense.

Yeah, I'm going to go with you. I'm going chalk also. It just feels like too much for the Bengals here when Burroughs first game back. Their problem has not been scoring the football. Flacco's been good. So Burrow, I think, is a leadership boost. Chaseback is obviously big, all of that. But like the Ravens defense is really good.

They're on the win streak. Since these defense is really bad, it's in Baltimore at night. I think this is an impossible spot for Cincinnati. Go ahead. So Baltimore was my Super Bowl pick. And I've been enjoying them clawing back up to the top of the division.

Here's the intriguing thing about Cincinnati. Last year, they made a late run. They won five games in a row. And I think they, This is going to be kind of the same thing. They get Joe Burrow back. That's a huge lift. They go on a run.

They start the run tomorrow. All right. Listen, you're out there on the limb. I respect it. You got multiple. They have a 1% chance to go to the playoffs right now. If they win out, they'll have a 46% chance. Okay.

All right. Well, we'll see what I'm. I'm believing, baby. Talking about believing. All right, coach, you're the only one bold enough to pick the seven point underdog here. So who's the MVP of the game for since? It's going to be Jamar Chase. And this is a redemption game for him.

And this is going to be like the first Pittsburgh game with 23 targets. He had 23 targets against Pittsburgh. That game was crazy. Yeah, and he ended up with 10 receptions for 161 yards. And then they had 19 targets against the Jets. That's going to be the deal. You better take away Jamar Chase because the ball is going to go to him a lot. And he's angry and upset and embarrassed about what, you know, missing the game last week.

All right, Willie. Who's the MVP on Baltimore? I'm going to Mark Andrews, man. He's a matchup nightmare for any secondary. but I think when it comes to him and him and Lamar's relationship, man, Lamar looks for him at kind of like a security blanket. He's an absolute threat in the red zone. And I wouldn't mind another tish push that goes yard.

I wouldn't mind that. I will say as much as I dislike the tush push, the argument for it is that Mark Andrews play and then the play that the Steelers ran against the Bears. There now have been two explosive plays off the tush push. I didn't say it, though, because I still want a fan. My MVP is Derek Henry. Lamar has been struggling.

Give it to Derek Henry. defense. They got torched by Brees Hall. They got torched by Kyle Munungi. This is a different caliber of player in Derek Henry. I have no idea why the Patriots didn't give the ball to Trevionn Henderson. He's by far their best running back. They just are obsessed

with giving the ball to Stevenson. I think you can run on Cincinnati. I think Derek Henry runs all over the Bengals. All of this is a big lead up to Black Friday. Caleb Williams. Yeah, that's what it is. You were thinking Thanksgiving.

I was thinking that. Family, friends, thankfulness, and you do out the Bears stuff. No, no, we're going to figure out who's actually good to get some universal agreement here ahead of your Thanksgiving meal and who the best teams are in the NFL. Time now for first things last.

Sometimes at Thanksgiving when the extended family comes over, it can be a challenge to find safe topics with common ground. And football is usually a good conversational option. So I was thinking about things we could all agree on when it comes to the NFL, and well, And well, maybe this year we should stick to politics. Seriously, have we ever known less at this point in the year? Now that week 12 is in the books, I felt it was time to revisit a question I asked way back in week six.

Who is good? And six weeks later, I think we know the Rams are good. Their quarterback is the MVP favorite, who leads the league in touchdown passes, and he's got a number one scoring defense. But then what? The defending champs? They just blew a 21-point lead to Dallas and can't go 21-point. days without a story or stream or post shining light on dysfunction.

The Bears and Bucks would be the 3 and 4 seed in the NFC if the playoff started today, and both teams have a negative scoring differential. The AFC is a six-team Spider-Man meme. The odds are insane. As we sit here today, six teams are five or five and a half to one to win the conference. And sure, just like the tie goes to the runner in Little League, the benefit of the doubt going to the team that's been to seven straight AFC title games, that's a reasonable reason to back the Chiefs.

But they're also currently the 10 seed. If the bracket held in the AFC, the top three seeds are quarterbacks by Drake May, Bo Nix, and Daniel Jones, who boast one career playoff win combined. This is, of course, great for parody and sports television, but not great for agreement. So when this year, when you're passing your crazy uncle,

the pumpkin pie and he asks, hey, who do you like to win the Super Bowl? Be prepared to make a conversational pivot to a safe topic. Maybe try AI or crypto. That's all I've got for today. I'm very thankful for all of you who hang out with us on first things first overtime. Enjoy your Thanksgiving and be sure to tune in for a special live two-hour edition of the OT on Black Friday starting at 10 a.m. Eastern.