First Things First - Cowboys beat Chiefs, Packers beat Lions, Matt Leinart joins, Title Plate & Parkin’s Picks

Episode Date: November 28, 2025

(0:00) Cowboys beat Chiefs, Kansas City playoff odds, Can Dallas make a playoff run? (18:09) Packers beat Lions, Title Plate (31:28) Bengals beat Ravens, Surprised Burrow outplayed Lamar? (37:23) Matt Leinart talks Ohio State vs. Michigan (43:20) Parkins’ Picks, What went wrong for the Chiefs? (01:05:01) Bears upset or Eagles blowout, Stock Up Stock Down (01:16:58) How should Chiefs fans feel after the loss? (01:24:13) Bears will validate record with win over Eagles? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's a big time stage and to come out here and get a win on Thanksgiving. It's fun. We're a hot team right now. We're going to stay right there like this turkey, baby. It ain't that bad. And I got braces this year, so I'm good. I'm good. I'm not going to lie. Much improved turkey. I don't know. We need some water. We need some water. I started eating too soon. We earned it.

You get the whole turkey. Doc, you get a turkey leg, too. Good morning. Happy Black Friday. Thank you for spending some time with the FT. GFOT crew. I'm Danny Parkins, Willie Cologne, live in New York. Greg Jennings, Eric Mangini, with us. I don't know if it's the triptophan. Just early. A little foggy this morning, boys. How you doing, Willie? You full? I'm full. I'm ready to rode up. Greg, coach. How you doing? Uh, recovering. Recovering. It's inspiring. Greg ate everything. Great.

Greg. Yeah, he ate something. He had to eat some. Well, you know, he doesn't normally do it. So last night's statement win for the Cowboys, my goodness gracious. We're talking about the Cowboys making the playoffs and the Chiefs missing the playoffs. We got a jam-packed show for you today. Up is down and left is right. Meanwhile, my Super Bowl pick to represent the NFC of the Detroit Lions, they're going the wrong direction. And the Packers now look like the real threat in the NFC.

We will discuss. But it's a perfect time of year to look all the way ahead to the Super Bowl, who's got the biggest portion of title plate, a little Thanksgiving edition, of who I think is most likely to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy coming up in February. So we're very busy today.

Thank you all for spending part of your Black Friday with us, but we begin with the game that everybody watched yesterday. Chiefs, Cowboys, four touchdowns from Patrick Mahomes, he was not the problem, but Dak and the Cowboys and that Cowboys defense,

just enough for Dallas to, pull off the upset. Chiefs now the nine seed in the AFC and they lose almost all of the tiebreakers. So gentlemen, I cannot believe that I am asking this question, but Willie, I'll start with you. Yes. Do we now expect the Chiefs to miss the playoffs? I do.

I'm not going to give up on the Chiefs. I'm going to take a page out of your book. I believe after what they showed yesterday, even though they didn't come away with the W, they still fought gritty and hard. Listen, I think the best position for them to land is a potentially go 11 and 6, right? But you talk about the Texas ahead and the Titans and they got some worthy oppositions. I still believe the Chiefs have enough to get it done. But I think there's so much on this offense to produce and to be the end-all-b-all. This defense has to learn to

close games, just like the offense has been able to try to do as to relate. So I think they have a shot, but there's no more room for error. They got it went out. Greg, I know you're going to be surprised to hear me say this because you mock me for my belief in the Chiefs. I woke up today and I think we're going to be watching playoff football without Kansas City playing in it. Like, it's just they've made too many mistakes, too many times. He's bending the knee. Is it? Whether it's the penalties, whether it's the drops, or whether it's just straight math, they lost to the Chargers.

They won't have that tiebreaker. They lost to the Broncos. They won't have that tiebreaker. They lost to the Jaguars. They won't have that tiebreaker. Like, can they win out? Of course, Greg. Of course they can, but I don't know now when they've lost three of four in all of these must-win spots.

I no longer expects the Chiefs to make the playoffs, and I cannot believe that my mouth is able to form that sentence. It honestly doesn't feel right. Well, it makes sense, though. Look, what we're seeing with the Chiefs is a team that is just not getting it done the way that we once saw them getting it. done in every single area, most importantly in the critical moments of the game. When the game has been on the line, we've always been able to watch a team, whether the offense is on the field and Patrick Mahomes is able to lead them down to score and get a win, or that defense and spags is able to make a play to prevent a team from going away with

the win. We are just not seeing that. And when you talk about the penalties, it's everything. Everything is just kind of allowing this team to unravel at the most important times of the year. And we just haven't seen that. And coach, you know this. Like, when you're coaching a team that has the experience, you have the personnel, you believe in your guys. It's just a matter of can we play a complete sound game of football to execute and get this done?

Yeah, we talk about, we've talked about this throughout the course of the season. And every time they win a game, then they're the favorites to go to the Super Bowl because they're going to get in the playoffs and that experience will carry them through. But then they lose the next game or they lose the game after that. And we're looking at a 500 team. And that's realistically how they're playing. You can't be one of the top teams in the league in penalties and expect to win games and to win close games. And 10 penalties yesterday and two of those penalties,

came on the last drive where Dallas was able to close it out. That historically never happens. I really thought we were going to watch the end of that game where Patrick Mahomes got the ball back because the defense was able to stand up. He drives down. He either ties the game or he wins the game. But penalties allow Dallas to essentially close it out.

And then when you look at what they did defensively, they blitzed almost 50% of the time on Dax dropbacks, and they got zero sacks. That's very uncharacteristic. Danny, you set it off the top. The drops. To me, the drops have been a problem all season. I know it's not as bad as it was a couple years ago,

but it's still a problem. And this is a 500 team making 500 team type mistakes that you wouldn't expect from a group that has this much experience. Yeah, and it's another one score loss. But coach, like you said, it almost, the score was closer than the game actually felt. because they scored the worthy touchdown to cut it to three, but then they never get the ball back, right,

because they keep committing the defensive penalties. And listen, there were too many flags in a game of that magnitude. Some of them calls a tic-tacky. Yeah, I didn't like all of the penalties in either direction with all the past interferences. But, like, it's just a, it's not like, oh, Mahomes didn't come through at the end. Right. He wasn't given a chance to because his defense couldn't get him the ball back.

And, Willie, I'm just curious about this. It's like, I don't know what it would say if I'm in the Bill's locker room, the Ravens locker room, the Colts, Broncos, any of those other AFC teams, when you won your Super Bowl in 08, it was the one year in the Patriots dynasty when Brady got hurt week one. The Castle was that quarterback. And Matt Castle wins the 11 games. But the Patriots were not in the playoffs.

Was there some sense or was it even, was it discussed of like, oh, wow, this thing really is wide open because the team that's owned this conference, isn't going to be in the playoffs. Well, it was 50. Yeah, we understood that Brady was out and there was a big opportunity for us to rise. But we also had to deal with the Baltimore Ravens.

Like, they were in our way and they were a substantial team because of their defense and they were clicking on the office. So as much as we felt like we had a road to success because Brady wasn't in town, we still had to see Ray Lewis and that dawn to defense. So we were dealing with more in-house focused than weren't about who was down the road like the Patriots.

But if you're the rest of the league, you do have to understand that, you know, the Chiefs look, look weak, right? You talk about the penalties, you talk about the ability to close games. But I think for me is defensively, and you got to understand, Chris Jones got the bad because of what he does in the fourth quarter, his impact alone on the field on how he dominates and condense the pocket. We haven't seen that version of Chris Jones. When you turn on the tape, you watch the Cowboys office line, you see a young Booker from Alabama putting grown man hands

on them and really saying, nah, this is my time. This office line is going to rise. And they're dominating the Chief's defensive line. So this wasn't about the Chiefs. secondary not rising up. This is very much about this front seven not being able to step up and get after Dak. And Dak looked money good, man. So you got to give credit to that officer line for the Cowboys. It was jarring to see the Chiefs in this position and it happening because of the Dallas Cowboys, who Willie just mentioned. Let's talk about that side of the game because now they're the hot team. And they in five a five day span, they beat the two teams that were in the Super Bowl from a year ago, right? You beat the Eagles with a 21 point comeback. And then in front of 50s.

50 million plus people, you beat the chiefs in a shootout. Here's Dak Prescott on the state of the Cowboys. Just the place that we're in of having to get these wins against two elite teams. I mean, the two teams that played in the Super Bowl last year. Last year is last year. But you're talking about two organizations that obviously know how to win. And we just beat them both in two great games, as you said, in four days and just showing the resiliency of this unit, of this brotherhood on top of everything that we've been through. Yeah, I don't know if there's been two more impressive wins, but I can tell you right now that we're not going to just sit on some high because of that.

We know we've got a big one coming again next week, and all this really does for us is just give us more confidence knowing that we can go play with whoever. So, Coach, I want to start with you here. That's an unbelievable statement win. Five days after a really impressive statement win. What statement did the Cowboys send the rest of the league? they sent the statement that they're going to be a problem for for anybody they face. And the other really impressive thing about Dallas is they're improving and they're improving in the area that was the biggest problem, which is defensively.

And we've seen that since the trade deadline, the significant growth that they've made defensively. And look, whenever you have a new defensive coordinator, it does take time. And as the season goes on and guys truly understand where, where, people fit and how it's all supposed to work together and you get those reps. You like to see that. And then from an offensive perspective, they can hurt you so many different ways. And and DAC is playing at a level that that justifies the contract he has. It's the highest paid player in the NFL and he's playing like that and he's he's providing leadership and a belief on the sideline that they're going to be able to figure out a way to win. I,

I thought the win over the Eagles was so significant because of how they did it and the resilience they show. And then to come back and to not only beat the Chiefs, but that prevent Patrick Mahomes from getting the ball back, that's huge. And it's meaningful. And defensively, this team is significantly better than what we saw in the early part of the season. Yeah, I thought their defense, like on paper they allowed 28 points, but it wasn't easy. for the Chiefs. A couple of those touchdowns come on fourth down. They're allowing just over 21 points per game, like in the aggregate since the trade deadline. They're allowing, you know, 312 yards loud, like well above average for the Cowboys defense.

So I do think the Cowboys defense has gotten better. I would say the statement from Dallas is they can beat anyone. No one wants to play them. But I will still operate under the assumption that the best that they can do is play spoiler. because their schedule is easy the rest of the way. They only have one team that's going to make the playoffs, but it's a situation, Greg, where, like, you lost Arizona, you lost to Carolina.

Like, I think you dug yourself too deep of a hole that even though you're playing great right now, good teams, maybe two good teams in the NFC are going to miss the playoffs, and I just, I will still assume that this team is not going to run the because I don't think that they're a perfect team. So I think that they're going to play spoiler. They're getting better.

Their future is bright. But I don't expect Dallas to, you know, all of a sudden be the seven seat in the NFC and be dangerous come January. Yeah, look, the statement that they're making is you bet not slip up and let us get in the dance, period. Like with the confidence that this team is playing with, the now resurgence of what they look like and what they're putting on film. for the last couple games defensively, this is a team.

When you watch what they provide now defensively and we know who they are offensively, you do not want to let get into the postseason. Now, I'm with you, Danny. I don't believe that they'll make it because, like, they dug themselves too deep a hole. Now, could they possibly get in? This is a team that nobody in the NFC will want to face because they're clicking on all cylinders. That Prescott and that offense believes that they are the best. And like he said in that presser, we can be in about anyone. We believe that we can beat anyone. And when you're

remaining on that schedule, when you're looking now, when we pull up the Dallas Cowboy schedule, a couple weeks ago, we were looking at those, that Eagles game, the Chiefs game, and the Lions, those three back to back to back games. Like, there's no way they can get all three. Now with the way that we've seen them perform, Willie, this team can definitely go into Ford Field and upset the Lions. And the Lions will then be in the situation where we're already looking like somebody's going to get left out. And the Dallas Cowboys are looking, if we're not going to make it, you aren't either. Yeah, but I think coach hit it right on the head. They've been able to show that they can win ugly and they can win pretty. Yesterday

was pretty. But when you talk about their operation, man, Dak is getting the ball out on the time. You talk about his relationship with George Pickens, how we see him differently. Citi had a bounce back game. Their confidence is through the roof solely because of how Dak's playing.

Defensively, we could talk about Quentin Williams. We know the leadership he brings, but I think overshone has been money good. I mean, how he's been able to cover guys out of backfield, you know, really be a leader in that lineback of corps. What I think happens right now for the Cowboys is, they're at the point where they're like, it's not who they play is how well they can play.

Because I feel like they can prove yesterday, they can get into shoot out with anybody. And that type of confidence this time of year, I mean, you just can't match it. So yeah, the confidence is high, but I think this Niners would have to, what, lose three straight for them to slide in? Well, I mean, listen, that's the thing.

The NFC playoff picture right now is complicated because Green Bay and Chicago are right there at top of the NFC North. Look at those teams in the In-the-Hunt graphic. Detroit is good. They're really injured right now. They're really injured right now. But I think they're good.

We all have to say that Dallas is good because of what they've done since the deadline and the two teams that they just beat Greg. So I don't know who's going to be left out. But I don't think it's, I think your point of like, if you don't get in, we're also not going to get in. Like they have a real opportunity here to, you know, play spoiler for the Lions specifically. And then they're going to need help from the rest of those teams on that graphic. Yeah, you love being in this situation in terms of still having a shot to make the postseason if you're the Cowboys, but also knowing that we're good enough to where we can disrupt the landscape for everyone moving forward. And if you're the Eagles, look, it appears that they revealed that they have some real issues.

We all kind of knew that they had some issues offensively. the passing game and what have you. But what the Cowboys were able to do to them on Sunday, it really put a magnifying glass on. They better fix their issues really quick because this Cowboys team, just like we mentioned about Kansas City, it might be too little too late. But can they run the table? I believe they possibly can, Coach. Yeah, and you look at this, Dallas could be favored going into Detroit.

It's not like Detroit is having some fantastic. run. Their arrows are pointing different directions for these two teams. And Dallas could easily run the table, go into the playoffs with a ton of momentum. And all the teams that you have ahead of them, they've all got issues. You look at San Francisco, Brock Party's throwing three interceptions in the first half. I mean, you go right on down the line. Each one of those teams has different problems. And the difference is Dallas is trending upward and trending upward aggressively. and all those other teams are wallowing to some degree. Fourth easiest strength of schedule the rest of the way is Dallas.

They only play one team that would be in the playoffs right now, and that's the Chargers. Obviously, they've got their division games at the end of the year. Jaden will be back, but the Cowboys certainly have a path if they went out, and, yeah, if they can go 3-0 in that Eagles, Chiefs, and Lions path, we have to take them seriously. But is this run enough for Dallas to make it onto title plate? Very excited about this.

I'm going to build you the perfect Thanksgiving plate and tell you exactly how likely each of these teams are to make the Super Bowl and hoist that Lombardi trophy. Thank you so much for hanging out with us on a Black Friday. First thing's first O2. We got some great football yesterday on Turkey Day start to finish. Packers beat the Lions. Four touchdown passes from Jordan Love,

two and a half sacks from Micah Parsons. They were honestly impressive on both sides of the ball. The locker room was feeling itself. Take a listen. How'd that turkey taste? That is how you compete. That was playoff football. It took all 60 minutes, all three phases.

Give it up for yourself, man. He threw four tennies on the day. We have one and in doing so, becomes the first guy in NFL history. To have 12 plus sacks in his first five years. All right, Coach, Willie, I will be honest with you. That version of the Packers is scary. To me, that is the optimized version of what they are trying to be.

And, like, Jordan Love, I have criticized him for not being a trustworthy player. Like, I think he's inconsistent. Sometimes I feel like he doesn't feel the rush or the game situation. Streaky. Very streaky. Yep, I got you. But he's a big game hunter. Like, that guy throws the ball down the field.

And yesterday on deep balls, he was just awesome. Like four of six on deep passes for 126 yards, two touchdowns, no picks. And in the first 11 games this year, he only had one touchdown on deep balls this year. So he's always trying to do it. Yesterday he connected. And when you combined that with yesterday Matt LaFleur, he beat Dan Campbell at his own game. Yes, he did. Matt LaFleur went for it on fourth down.

three times. And the first one is a touchdown to Wix on a deep ball. Again, it's fourth and two. Jordan Love, you're throwing deep. This is another fourth and down. They're not settling for a field goal.

Hit Dobbs in the corner. And then maybe the scariest one, the one to ice the game just on the other side of the two-minute warning. He's getting hit. He's falling back. Back to Wix. Wix loses his shoe and he catches it.

So, like, if the Packers are going to connect on their deep balls and convert on fourth downs with touchdowns and game icing drives, and Micah's going to be a closer for you? Willie, that's the scariest version of this team. Yeah, and I thought the ultimate stabilizer for their office was Josh Jacobs. He had 4.9 at pop, and I thought their ability to run the ball throughout that game really opened up their offense where there was a threat down the field. And then you got to give credit to the big uglies up front, man. I mean, Jordan loved they get touched. I mean, this is supposed to be a daunted Lions rush that really

gets after, especially at home, Thanksgiving game. I was worried for the Green Bay Packers off his line. But they didn't get to sniff Jordan Love. And I thought you saw him get comfortable and more confident throughout the game. So it was because how well they ran the ball, how well they protected. And Jordan Love, I mean, he showed up in a big way. So big win. Coach, what did you think? Yeah, I'm still with you, Danny. And I've said the same thing about Jordan Love throughout the course of his career is he is streaky. And when he is on, he is on. And when he's good, he's awesome. And really, this Green Bay. team. Look at Micah Parsons. This was the Micah Parsons that was advertised when they made the

trade and you saw the impact that he had in the game, but that's been inconsistent as well. So when those things are hitting, both are hitting, they can play with anybody. They can beat anybody and that's obvious. But this is a little bit about Detroit as well. I don't think Detroit's really solved the problems that they've had in terms of changing out the player call it with Dan Campbell and and hoping that they were going to be as explosives as they have been historically, you know, in terms of going forward on fourth down, Dan Campbell's gone for it seven times since week 11 on fourth down and not made any of them. So maybe he needs to gamble less. And on the flip side of it, you know, going forward on fourth down, I think,

is great. But we did kill Nick Seriani when he went forward on fourth down late in the game to try to seal it and it was incomplete. If that ball had been incomplete, I don't know if we're having the same conversation that we're having right now, or we're saying how could, how could LaFleur possibly made that decision? It worked out great, but again, we killed Sariani if you,

you know, X many weeks ago for making a similar decision that didn't work. I agree completely. That's the Packers. They are, they're a, you called them streaky. They're very boom or bust.

Like, it's fourth and two. Why are you throwing it 30 yards down the field? You know what I mean? Like, that doesn't seem. necessary, but it worked. But I think it's important when you're playing in a game like that,

you have to match the intensity of your opponent. He knows what Dan Campbell was trying to do. He understands, like, man, we're hot, we're doing everything we need to do on offense. If I got an opportunity to continue to put the dagger in this team, I have to be solely because of the personnel and the arsenal that Detroit has. So I credit LaFleur, man, because I felt like he's like, man, we're not losing this game.

You know, if we got to go, if we got to play chicken, I'm not losing in the game of chicken. Yeah, that version of them was very, very impressive. And can they do that for three straight road games in the playoffs and a Super Bowl? Can you carry that streak and that level of variance through? I'm not sure. I have my doubts, but that version of them, if they get it, is a very, very dangerous team. Now, boys, I'm skinny, but I can eat.

I can eat. So I am going to build you the perfect title plate, breaking down each team's chances at the Super Bowl in everyone's favorite fashion today. Food. So you'll figure it out as we go along. We begin with, I got to keep them on my plate, 5% shot to win the Super Bowl. It's the Chiefs. And what is that on the plate?

It's Brussels sprouts. It's like out of obligation. Do I want to put greens on my plate? Yeah. No, I don't. I'm not looking to be healthy on Thanksgiving. It's a thing of gluttony. But until the Chiefs are eliminated and then the NFL says, we're going to add an eighth seed,

until they say that they actually are out of the playoffs and the ball is kicked off wildcard week. and the Chiefs aren't a part of it, I will keep them at 5% at the very bottom. Next up on the title plate also coming in, 5% chance of hoisted the Lombardi, cranberry sauce, Daniel Jones. Do I love it? No. Am I really confident in this? No.

But it speaks to how wide open this whole thing is like, I still think they're going to win the AFC South. They're 8 and 3. If you're going to win your division, you're going to get a home playoff game. You've got an awesome offensive line. You've got a great running game. They have the ability to score. with anybody. Do I think they're winning the Super Bowl? No, but they've done enough to this

point that I think I got to include them as cranberry sauce. Coming in at 8% the New England Patriots, right now, this is sweet potatoes. They're my secondary potato. Like, I love them, I'm happy, but you're not my favorite potato. You're just a potato that I'm including on this time of year. And the reason would be, I don't really trust who they've beaten and the easy strength of schedule that they have. And I love Drake Men. I like Vrabel. They're going to have the buy, I think, in the AFC. So, like, it would be a fool not to, I'd be a fool not to have them on my plate.

But, like, they're, I will be very surprised. They feel a little ahead of schedule to me in order. Do you think they're one and done if they get in? I think that they're very vulnerable to be won and done. And let me see them play Buffalo and Baltimore out of the buy and, like, see how they match up in that in that spot. So I'm keeping them at the bottom here. But still, more than the Chiefs is an immense amount of respect.

For sweet potatoes, I mean for the Patriots. Coming in at 10%, I know they lost last night, the Baltimore Ravens, you're stuffing. You're there, you're going to be in the playoffs, you're going to win the division, and then you're going to be scary. Like, it's just, it's a part of January. You have them win the division, even after the loss.

I still trust. You know they play the still is. I still trust them more than your Pittsburgh Steelers. I do. The Ravens defense, not great yesterday, had been better. I assume Lamar will get right. Maybe he won't. Maybe that's a huge assumption on my part.

But again, the AFC is so wide open. Only at 10%. I don't think any Baltimore fan is thrilled right there. And right there, equal to them at 10%. My Super Bowl pick from before the year, the Buffalo Bills. And then I made them pumpkin pie, because pumpkin pie is my favorite part of Thanksgiving. And I don't have pumpkin pie any other day of the year. And why is it my favorite?

Because I picked them to win the Super Bowl. And again, their best is, I think, arguably best. Like when Josh Allen is locked in, if they can get a good defensive performance, they can beat anybody. But those are two huge ifs. If Josh is locked in, he's had more turnovers recently, their defense hasn't been able to stop anybody. But again, you're going to see an emerging theme here. 5%, 5%, 8%, 10%, 10%, 10%. I don't feel good about any of these picks.

Don't sound like it. I don't. Until we start jumping up a little bit here, 14% Seattle Seahawks. Mac and cheese. Delicious. My wife's Star Dish at Thanksgiving. Cannot wait to get home and have some leftovers of that. Today, I came away.

McDonald's having a great year. Their defense is awesome. They almost beat the Rams, even when Sam Darnold had the worst game you could possibly have with four interceptions. JSN is a monster. It's just, it's a mainstay. And even though they'll be the five seat in the NFC, I think nobody wants to play Seattle this year.

Just above them, one of my favorite foods, The Philadelphia Eagles come in at 15%. They're mashed potatoes. No one's going to complain about mashed potatoes. I'm not. Even though everybody in Philly is complaining about their version of mashed potatoes. Maybe they got the potato skins in them

and it's just like not your favorite type of it or whatever. I like it more whipped up with some hot gravy on top. That's not the point. Point is this. They're the champs. They have the most impressive resume in terms of who they have actually beaten. And if Jalen Hurts and that offense can figure it out,

they are arguably the scariest team. I get healthy. In the NFL. So what's that big? portion of the plate. Who's the main character of Thanksgiving? Turkey. 33% chance for the Rams. This is simple. They've got the best defense. They have the best quarterback right now. They have the coach who's proven that he can do it. So coach, I think the Rams deserve to be a heavy favorite to win the Super Bowl, and I have built you my perfect Thanksgiving, aka title plate.

Oh, Danny, I see your plate. I like what you did with the turkey. I I agree there. I don't know what was in your glass, though, because it must have been filled up quite a few times when you put the rest of this together. I don't know how you have Baltimore, where you have Baltimore ahead of New England. I think you watched the same game that I watched yesterday, but still somehow they get that percentage of the plate. And what's missing is you don't have any rolls. You don't have any rolls. How do you not have a role as part of your plate?

And to me, that's the Denver Broncos. And how can you not have the Denver Broncos on your plate? So they've won eight straight games. So there's that. And then after the eight straight games, then when we got 11 straight home games. So they're approaching one of the longest home winning streaks in a while. They could get the number one seed. And then if they get the number one seed, guess what?

They're going to be playing at home. Guess what? They're really good at home. So the fact that you don't even give them a 5% chance, And you have the chiefs who again underperformed. And I get it. I get it. It's the chief.

So we just got to keep eating the Brussels sprouts, even though we don't like them that much. But we keep eating them. And you don't have the crazy uncle or the relative who causes problems. To me, that's the Dallas Cowboys. They're the ones that are going to disrupt the whole dinner. Just like they just ruined, you know, Philly's lead up to the holiday.

And Kansas City's, you know, holiday, holiday yesterday. All right. Well, listen, I just can't see sometimes you don't have room for bread. I didn't have room for bread. I didn't have room for bone nuts. I had a lot on your plate.

I had a lot of my plate. Willie? Yeah, I'm going with that pumpkin pie. I'm going to take that slices and break it down to a sliver. The Buffalo bills right now, defensively, they can't stop the running. We've talked about that.

And offensively, Josh Allen, I think he's been forced to do so much. I think that cape is wearing thin. I thought he took a battle off against the Texas when he actually looked like he regressed. And I think overall, they're just not overall. They're just not clicking as a team.

And I just don't say, I'm worried about the Buffalo bills right now. I know they have my Steelers this weekend, but it's a lot going on in Buffalo. Preview, that game will feature prominently in Parkins picks. And I didn't think I would ever be hungry again after the performance I put on yesterday. But seeing that plate, I kind of am. The game last night, Joe Burrow outplayed Lamar Jackson. What does it mean? Ramifications for the division and those quarterbacks coming up.

FTFOT, Black Friday Special. All right. to Baltimore in the night game. The Ravens, brutal loss, Joe Burrow with the return. Five takeaways from Cincinnati's defense and interception, multiple fumbles by Lamar. And that game really got out of hand fast. It escalated quickly. And Willie, you didn't think Joe Burrough should play in this game. I didn't. And then he outplays Lamar. What say you now, Willie Cologne?

I didn't think the toe was going to hold up. I just did. I thought Baltimore was going to be ready for the fight. And Lamar was interesting about this game, man. Like, Lamar looked more rusted than Joe Burrow. And I was kind of puzzled by the whole his performance and how he was throwing. You know, the ball was all over the place. The operation was ugly. It just seemed like he never settled in.

And you saw Joe Burrow as the game went on, he became more poised, got more confident. The game seemed to slow down for him. He was in total control. And I'm saying, man, I swore Joe Burrow just got back. I swore Lamar Jackson. and it has been playing a little, you know, just got back three weeks ago. And when you see this Baltimore offense, man, Lamarra just looks like a shell of himself. And I know he's dealing with the toe, the ankle, and the knee.

But he looks like a guy right now that he may have to sit out this game just as well he can possibly finish the back into the season. I'm surprised at how bad the Baltimore Ravens played. I got to give credit to Joe Burrough. He was efficient. It seemed like after that second quarter, he kind of slowed down halftime. He really locked in. And the Bengals look like a totally different team after yesterday. They do.

And coach, he's got that dog in him. Like, I don't even know, I don't even know, like, a better way to describe. Seriously, like, he said after the game, he's like, listen, I, if I'm healthy, I'm not going to be afraid. I'm going to go out there and I'm going to try to play for my teammates. He proved it yesterday. Like, that's a leader. Now, and again, he's not the guy who generated five turnovers and Lamar does not look right.

And now is that without T. Higgins, by the way. I know. But it's like a weird thing. It was like impressive by Burr. Maybe they can play spoiler. They can win out and talk themselves into having a chance. But also, Lamar just didn't look right, Coach. Like, there was a ton there on both sides of that game.

No, it's weird. Who picked Cincinnati to win on Wednesday? I can't remember which one of the three of us picked that. Oh, wait. Wait, who picked all three winners on Wednesday? Oh, that's right. Oh, you go peek talking today. I don't even have Parkinson's picks.

But when I talked about this, I talked about Joe Burrow last season, and Joe Burrow and the Bengals went on that five-game winning streak and going into this game that I believe less than 1% chance of making the playoffs. But I do believe that they can make a run because there's so much confidence in Joe Burrow. And Joe Burrow had only thrown, I think, 35 passes prior to this game, maybe it was 36.

Prior to the fourth quarter, he attempted 42 passes. which has only been matched by Joe Burrow last year. So the confidence that they had offensively with putting the ball in his hands was obviously extremely high. And you heard him talk prior to the game. Why are you playing? He said, because we get a lot of money to play a kid's game.

And I want to be out there. And he talked about how important this game was and how meaningful it was to play on Thanksgiving. All those things that the passion that you want to hear from your quarterback. And I think the flip side of that is, I do think Lamar is beat up, and I do think he's pushing through of a lot of things that are limiting him, because when he runs the ball, which he doesn't run very often, it doesn't look the same. And he has three games now where he hasn't thrown a touchdown.

That's the worst in his career. His three turnovers, that's the most amount of turnovers he's had in four years. It didn't look right against Cleveland, which I gave him a pass for. It didn't look right against the Jets, which I didn't understand. now it doesn't look right against the bangles. He made the bangles look like the 85 bears at times yesterday. And we know how rough a season it's been for them defensively. That's the thing.

Like if Lamar isn't right and he's just playing at a compromised version of himself, ballgame. Yeah, but I think yesterday the five turnovers, it led to methodical points for the bangles, right? And I think when you talk about what Lamar should have been doing is really staying ahead of the schedule, staying ahead of schedule, the ball out on time. A lot of time he was just indecisive with the football. Even that last turnover he had in the first half where he was trying to pull the bell back in. That's a quick layup for him.

He just has to get the ball out. And so when you look at this Baltimore Ravens team, you're starting to say like, man, I think they're in trouble because even though Derek Henry had that early score, what they really do is they're a bodybow team. They lean on you throughout the quarter. But it starts throughout the quarters, but it starts with Lamar Jackson.

You didn't really see that. And I think coach is right. I think the injuries are starting to kind of really take this toll. And I don't know where the Ravens go from this, but Lamar has to be better. They've got the path, though, of the division. Like, you know, the Chiefs have to get in through the wild card at this point, right? Division's over.

Like, Baltimore now can basically just be like, we have to be better than Pittsburgh. You know, like, honestly. And if they're better than Pittsburgh, they get into the playoffs. If they get into the playoffs because they're better than Pittsburgh, they get a home playoff game. And then they could be getting into the playoffs with a home. playoff game without the chiefs in it? Coach, that's how they're looking at it, right?

It is how they're looking at it, but it's hard to think that they're going to walk through the rest of the schedule. They've got to play Cincinnati again. They've got to play. Unfortunately for them, they've got to play Cincinnati again. They do, and it was a wild game last night, but we got the game coming up

this weekend on Fox. Matt Liner, part of Big Noon joins us. Ohio State and Michigan. In case you haven't heard, it's been a while since Ohio State won one of these things. The greatest rivalry in sports is here. Top ranked, the defending champs, Ohio State, heads to the big house. Looking to snap Michigan's four-game win streak in the game. It all starts 9 a.m. special three-hour Big Noon kickoff live from Ann Arbor.

Then it's Michigan, Ohio State, at noon, only on Fox. And joining us now on our Black Friday special, one of the stars of Big Noon, Matt Liner. He's in Ann Arbor. He had his Thanksgiving dinner. and he's ready for the game. Matt, happy Thanksgiving, a day late. Thank you very much for making the time. I know this sounds crazy because you guys play for championships,

but you've been in rivalry games and rivalry games matter. 2,191 days since Ohio State won one of these things. Do you have any sense that Ohio State fans care more about winning this game than winning a national championship? Yeah, I think the Ohio State fans, are delusional. And Coach Meyer is going to hate me for saying that. But this, I don't want to say this game doesn't matter as much, but the way the college football playoff is structured and the schedule and all these things, it doesn't matter as much because Ohio State can lose this game,

just like they did last year. And they went on an epic run and won a national championship. So I've been a part of this rivalry now for a decade on the road. I've seen it, the hatred. Genuinely, these teams hate each other and the fan bases and all of that. But it is a different feeling this year. And it means a lot. I mean, in particular, more for Michigan this year, because if they win this game, they have a real shot of a playoff. But for Ohio State, listen, for me, I would take a national championship every year. That's the goal if it meant we lost to Michigan. I just wouldn't. I think they would too. So I don't know. I think they're delusional. I think they need to relax a little bit. They're coming off a national. They won 15 straight since

the Michigan lost last year. They're the best team in the country by a wide margin, in my opinion. But as you know, and what we saw last year in this game, man, it really doesn't matter. The rankings, the numbers, the stats, it doesn't matter. This game is just different when these two teams play. Well, fan is short for Fanatic for a reason, so they're not always going to be rational. All right, two QBs, very contrasting styles, weather could play a factor in this game. Which quarterback do you trust more, Sayan or Underwood? Yeah, I mean, I trust saying more going into this game.

And let me just talk about both guys really quick. It's really been somewhat of a different path for both of these kids to kind of get to this point. You look at Bryce Underwood. They've, you know, they've kind of struggled for on the football all year. But really the last couple weeks, you go to the Northwestern game. And here, here's Julianne saying. I mean, Julian saying has been terrific all year. But Bryce Underwood, the Northwestern game, a little sloppy, but had the game winning drive.

Started to build that chemistry with Marsh. And then last week against Maryland, probably put his best game together. Now he's going to see Matt Patricia defenses disguised. They're going to do everything they can to take away Marsh. He's going to have to get through progressions. I truly, truly believe his legs are going to be a massive factor in this game. Whether it's weather or not, he's going to have to run the football. And then for Julian saying, he's just been, he's been terrific since week one against Texas.

Like he's been steady. He's a legit Heisman trophy candidate. He doesn't make mistakes. He's just smart. He's decisive. He doesn't move around a time. but he can. But he's never played in this game. And we saw what Michigan was able to do against Will Howard, who was an experienced quarterback last year. So he's going to be battled, he's going to be

tested for the first time all year in the game, on the road, in this rivalry. So it's sort of two contrasting styles and two paths to get to this point. Both star quarterbacks, both young, both have bright futures, man. But it'll come down to quarterback play in big games like it normally does. So you mentioned if Michigan wins, they've got a shot and a path to the playoff. It's the rivalry. We know what is at stake in the game. But they're a significant underdog. What's a path to Michigan pulling off an upset on Saturday?

Yeah, well, I just mentioned Bryce Underwood. I think he has to be special. And that goes without saying, but he just has to. He has to make plays. He can't turn the football over. And he's got to run the ball 10 or 15 times in this game. His legs have to be a factor. goes without saying. The number one thing, though, for Michigan, they have to score first.

They have to start fast. When they score first this year, they're 7 and 0. I don't care if it's a defensive touchdown. I don't care if it's a punt return or a kickoff return. They have got to figure out how to start fast. They're both, both their losses, SC this year, Oklahoma earlier in the season. They get behind early. They get behind 10 or 14 points in this game. It's over because they're not built to come back. It's just they cannot play, come from behind football. that's going to be the biggest thing. You start fast, you get the crowd, 100,000 people involved, and then you start to slowly put a little bit of doubt in Ohio State's mind

because that's what's happened in the last couple years. That's their recipe. They got to play great in this game. I think they know that. They're certainly capable, though, based on what they showed in this game a year ago. Well, Matt, I know it's going to be a who's who in Ann Arbor on Big Noon. You guys do a great job, man. The chemistry's off the charts and you guys are going to have a party.

Thank you for spending some time with your Black Friday with us. We'll be watching. Thank you. Real quick. I want to shout out. This is an Ohio State Red. This is Redondo Union Red. My son's in the CIA Finals tomorrow night. I'm going to make the game. Division 5, go Seahawks. Let's take home a championship. I had to get that in there real quick.

Hey, consider them shout it out, man. We got to give Division 5 some love. Thank you, Matt. Hell yeah. All right. Happy Thanksgiving, bud. Have a good weekend. Thanksgiving. Enjoy the game. And we will be watching. Back to the NFL coming up.

Hey, Black Friday. Eagles and Bears coming up. Oh, my. It's a big time stage and come out here and get a win on Thanksgiving. It's fun. We're a hot team right now. We're going to stay right there like this turkey, baby. Stay that bad.

And I got braces this year, so I'm good. I'm good. I'm not going to lie. Much improved turkey. I don't know. We need some water. We need some water. I started eating too soon.

Ah, ah, ah, I. We earned it. You get the whole turkey, Dak. You get a turkey leg, too. It's not a discounted. of the FTFOT crew. We're not on sale. We got the whole crew here. We got Greg Jennings, Coach Manjini, Willie Colon, Danny Parkes. It seemed like a big Black Friday shopper. A lot black. That's not what I meant. Oh, okay. All right. Thank you.

Greg Jennings. No. I just want a third pole in it. I appreciate that. That's what to start up. All right. Well, we'll talk Caleb a little bit later on. Can he keep up with Jalen Hertz? I appreciate that. And Detroit, I had them heading to the Super Bowl. And now they are heading in the wrong direction. But the Cowboys are the real threat now in the NFC. All of a sudden, but are they the nine seed?

Up is down, left, is right. It's very complicated. I want to start with that game, though, from yesterday that everyone watched, Chiefs and Cowboys. Mahomes was great. He was not the problem. Four touchdown performance. Yet it wasn't enough.

They lose to the Cowboys. Another must-win game. The Chiefs comfortably. They've been vacillating between the 9 and 10 spot in the AFC. That's not going to be good enough. Here's Patrick Mahomes. They're saying desperation that we are, and they played better over four quarters than we did. So even though we have good plays here and there, we have to be more consistent at the end of the day.

At the end of the day, he's going to win every game now, and hope that's enough. So, I mean, we're going to play a lot of good football teams coming up. And if we're going to make the playoffs, we're going to have to win. win them all. And that's got to be the mindset when we step into the building when we get back. So of course they can win them all. I just don't know how you can expect them to. So if the question is what went wrong, today it was the defense. Yeah. But at times it's been penalties and it was penalties also yesterday, but at times it's been Mahomes. It wasn't Mahomes yesterday. But like they are good at everything but never good at

everything at the same time. And now they've lost three of four. And if you look at what their defense did, the opening drive, right, they force a turnover. They get a takeaway. They make the big play. It's like, all right, it's going to be a shootout. You're going to have to do something to disrupt Dallas. In the seven drives after the takeaway, they force one punt, give up 450 yards of offense, get no more takeaways, and allow nine of 15 conversions on third down. So it's hard for me to get my mouth to say the chiefs are going to miss the playoffs, Willie. But I really do think the chiefs are going to miss the playoffs because when you lose to the Jaguars and the charges and they just start piling up,

it almost doesn't matter that I still think they're good. They have too many losses for it to matter. Yeah, and it's tough too because some of the things they needed to correct that they did yesterday. They went three for three in the red zone. You talk about my home was putting on a cape and scoring four touchdowns. You expected his team to come out the building with the W that didn't happily solely because of how sloppy they played in certain areas. And also the penalties killed him, right?

And that's the bottom line to it. Coach I mentioned it earlier in the show. You know, when you're in a, when you're in a shootout with a team like this, man, you have to be clean, especially in a situation of football. And they simply weren't. Patrick Mahomes tried his best. I mean, this play right here, I mean, that's just him holding on to the ball. But there were at times, man, where he's sucking and he's completing those throws.

It was just inconsistency in a times where they really need to make it happen. And they just weren't able to. I think Texas is coming up, Greg. It may be made too much of a outfit, too much of a battle for the chiefs coming up. Yeah, Danny, it's okay to just let it roll right off your tongue.

The chiefs are going to miss the post season this year. Is it strange? Yes. Will it be a little different for us all? Of course. Will Nick be really, really hurt? Yes. I'm going to face time later in the show.

We'll see the answers. Exactly. Exactly. Look, when you look at this team yesterday, and I'll just talk about yesterday, when your stars don't show up in every moment and you need them to, it's going to be a problem. Rishi Rice with the big drop one third down, Kelsey with another big drop. Coach mentioned it earlier. Like, they've been an average team all season long. We just fall in love with the idea of their resume and what's, you know, they've done in the past and if they can get it going, which we all know that, yeah, any team can

get it going and if any team can get it going, definitely the Chiefs. But this year, watching that game, the same things are showing up on film. And coach, you know this. If we're trying to make a deep run or a run to get in and our backs are against the wall, we almost have to play flawless football. We can't shoot ourselves in the foot. There can't be any friendly fires and we're seeing that with Trent McDuffie with the penalties. And again, you can call them ticky tack or whatever, but we just

haven't seen that specifically from him. And so we're seeing things show up on tape and on film that we ordinarily don't see with the Chiefs and coach, this is just not winning football when you need to be playing winning football.

And Patrick Mahomes said it in the press conference. Do we have to win every game? Yeah, that's true. But you really had to win this game, too. And they knew that going into it, and they weren't able to find a way to do it. And even with the victory of the Colts, the thing that surprised me the most about that, so they come back and they've got a chance to win in regulation. They've got it first in goal from the three-yard line, and they get stopped, and they end up going overtime and winning overtime.

That's fine. But traditionally, the Chiefs would have scored in that situation. Then you come to this game, and they're going to bring pressure. They're going to light Dak, Mahomes, or Dak Prescott up, And they pressure 50% of the time and they have zero sacks. Then they need to get the ball back. This is something they've always done. They need to put the ball back in my home's hand,

give them a chance to either tie it or win it, and they can't do it. Dallas is able to close it out, and they're able to close it out because of two pass interference penalties. And you can say what you want about the calls, but you do business as business is being done in games. And if a crew is calling it tight,

then you've got to lighten up. That's just something that you have to do. And good teams understand that. And that didn't happen. But this has been a problem all season. The drops have been a problem all season. And to your point, Danny, it's fix one thing and something else breaks, which is just not the trademark of this team, this organization, or the thought that they're going to be able to make some kind of run here at the end of the season and then deep into the playoffs.

All right, so let's just do a little impromptu game here. Can we put the schedule up on the screen? Mahomes said we're going to go very quickly. I apologize for putting this on Christina really quickly. But they've got to run the table. I say they are going to miss the playoffs because they're not going to win any tiebreakers. Texans, Chargers, Titans, Broncos, Raiders. Obviously, Raiders are terrible.

Titans, Chargers, and Broncos are not. I say they're missing the playoffs. Willie, making or missing. I'm saying making. I think they're going to rally. Okay, Willie's got him making. Greg. You know, they're missing. Missing the playoffs. Coach, missing the playoffs, making the playoffs. I'm with Greg. They're going to miss the playoffs and they're going to be so sad about it all offseason because if they got in, they could have made a run.

Wow. So three of us have them have them missing. You still believe. You know, I started off on the program early in the season talking about the end of a dynasty. bent the knee and admitted that the Chiefs are back. Now I can't go back and say they're going to make, I got it. What are we doing? I'm just too much flip-flopping. I had to stay on one side of the aisle there, Greg. It's, oh my gosh.

It's, hey, I understand it. It breaks our brains. I can't believe we're in this situation. It at least breaks my brain. I'm not too proud to admit it. Let's talk about the team that won that put the Chiefs in this spot. The Dallas Cowboys, they have now in the last five days beaten both teams that We're in the Super Bowl.

The Eagles win with a 21-point comeback, then the shootout win over the Chiefs. This is going to shock you guys, but Jerry Jones was able to find... No, we did find a microphone. We are not going to play it for you, though. The question is how scary are the Dallas Cowboys. And I will just say this.

They can clearly beat anybody. Oh, yeah. They can clearly beat anyone. They have proven that. And the question is going to be, is that going to matter because they can rally and make the playoffs? or is it now we're going to play spoiler?

Like they were the team that knocked out the Chiefs. They could be the team that knock out the Lions next week because they figured this out a little too late, Greg. At least for me, like they can run the table and their schedule's not tough. It's the fourth easiest schedule by strength of schedule. So if they beat the Lions and they run the table, fine. Dallas will certainly make it.

But to me, what they have proven is we're good, we're scary, we're dangerous, and we're going to just ruin other team seasons, maybe not necessarily be good enough to save their own. Yeah, look, they definitely are a scary team with what you just mentioned, obviously, beating the Eagles on Sunday and what we saw yesterday against the Kansas City Chiefs. Matt Iberfluse in his defense, he has to feel really good about what they're putting on tape and what they now have from a personnel standpoint. Still missing some key guys in the secondary.

But you mentioned it earlier, Willie, with overshone being back and having a few games, under his belt. He's getting back to form. Obviously, the addition of Quinn Williams and Clark earlier in the season because of the trade of Michael Parsons. All of these things are starting to merge together and look

really good when they play in these games late in the season. And that offense, I'm going to tell you right now, as a guy that's been on an offense, that's been high-powered, and you have the mentality of no one can stop us. And I know we've seen,

them sputtering games. But when they look like this, they are a team that can beat and will beat anyone. And they better be glad that they lost. We mentioned this earlier in the show, that Panthers game and specifically that Arizona Cardinals game. Because had they not lost that Cardinals game, this is a team that I believe we all would be saying, Willie, they're getting in. You're right. And I think we're all saying the same thing. The Dallas Cowboys look like a complete team. And I think when you pop on the tape, it looks like Dacking his weapons, right? We were watching this kid that has all these weapons and he's lighting up the field. But defensively, you know, what's interesting about the Cowboys, defensively, they're able to

get home with their front force, something they weren't able to do early in the season. They were forced to blitzmore. Now that's not going to happen. Now you're seeing, now you're seeing Clowny, you're seeing Clark, you're seeing Quentin. You're seeing these guys really condensed the pocket and really get after the quarterback. And now it's lighting up with a secondary. So I think when you turn on a tape, the Cowboys just look complete. They look like everything's starting to fire at the right time. And, you know, we just don't know how it's going to pan out. But if you got to go to Detroit with this outfit and the way they played, you've got to feel

confident. Coach, what do you think? Do you think that this team can make that run? I think, yeah, I think they're going to win out. And if they win out, they're going to win that's going to go into the playoffs with eight straight victories. And I do think we need to give the defense some credit and give Iberflue some credit because he took so many.

bullets from people, Danny. He took so many bullets in the early part of the season, and they've improved, they've improved dramatically. Here's a wild stat. They've got five number one draft picks on the defensive line, which

I hadn't really thought about. But not only that, but four of those five guys were top three picks in the draft. I don't know if we can pull up this graph. They were top three overall picks in the NFL draft. And as the season goes on, and you have these older guys and they can see the light at the tunnel,

you can, they'll pop up. They'll give you that energy that you need because there is a light at the end of the tunnel. You're in the playoffs and those guys can make a huge impact. And you saw it yesterday. Clowny had the two sacks. Fowler had another sack. They've got a ton of ability on that defensive line. And now with the momentum they have, it's going to be problematic for whoever's in front of them.

Well, so let's put up the playoff picture here. So if coach is right, let's just play the hypothetical game here, everyone's nursing hangovers on a Black Friday morning. So if that means that if they go on that wind street and they finish 11, 5 and 1, that clearly gets them in, but it probably will not win their division. So that puts them in the, you know, there'll be the 5 seed, the 6 seed, 7 seed somewhere in there. Let's assume that it ends up as like the 6 seed.

They will be the team that no one wants to play. In terms of like with how if they've won eight straight games, including both teams that were in the Super Bowl with an offense like that, their defense right now is holding teams since the trade deadline to basically 22 points per game, 315 yards of offense. Yeah, that will be the NFC North champ, whether it's Green Bay, Chicago, whomever, or if it ended up being Tampa, like, no one would want to play Dallas if they actually got in. They'd be scarier than any of those teams on the right side of the screen. I still don't think DAC is MVP conversation. Listen, if he does that, if he does that, sure, he'll be in the conversation. He will. I just want to hear you say.

It feels better when you say. Okay. I mean, listen, Greg, I'm not going to say that. He's been incredible. I just think if one team has a couple losses and the other is six, five, and one, no one's going to vote for him over Stafford. But if he rallies them into the playoffs, maybe, maybe Greg, he will get some consideration. It makes sense.

And with you playing it out. like that if they run the table and they get in and we know what they did to the Green Bay Packers at home taking them to the brink. Yep. There is not a team in the NFC that they will feel as though they're lesser than. They would be that team that's entering into the playoffs, as I mentioned before, that you shouldn't have let us in because now you got a problem and we're going to go, we're going to win at all. Like that's, this is the type of energy that you want to have. This is the type of confidence.

This is the type of trend that you want to be moving forward to, coach. And you can speak to this as a, from a coaching standpoint, you want to catch on, you want to catch fire later in the season. But you also want to have a chance to get in and you don't want to be sitting in this situation. But if you get a chance, this is when you want to catch fire, coach. They'll be the team that nobody wants to play, and they might be the team that nobody wants to play, and they're not even in the playoffs. But gentlemen, listen, I'm 500 on the year.

It's time to get hot. Time for a Black Friday edition of Parkins picks. I am seeing the NFL very clearly. This is the official pick segment. I plug it in the Matrix. I see the league clearly. I'm not going to let 3-0 change me. I'm not scared of picking big games.

Taking the points with Detroit. in the wood with the Chicago Bears. Easy, easier and easiest. I know that I'm right. So last week was criminal. That is a criminal one and two week. Because I can show you my gambling account, and I had the Patriots minus five and a half in real life.

I had to take six and a half on the show because I'm a man of integrity, and that's what the spread was at the time we went on the air. What was the final score of the game? They won by six. The lion's pick was not good. The Rams pick was of course excellent. So in my head, that's a two in one week,

even though it was one and two on the show. 18 and 18 is truly pathetic. I'm not proud of it. But remember, I went 65% against the spread this year. I'm not gonna be a turkey. I'm gonna give you a three and a weekend coming up. Number one pick, let's get on the win column today. Dab Bears, plus seven in Philly.

All this talk. about a Black Friday game, about the Eagles and what's going on with them on the offense and dysfunction about that. How about just a simple question of can the Eagles offense keep up with the Bears offense? Is that a real question? Oh, that's a real question, Willie. Better scoring team, better yardage team, better rushing team, better rushing efficiency team. I got a question for you. Which team is the better play caller?

Kevin Petulow or Ben Johnson? and think that's pretty clearly in the side of the monsters of the midway. Seven points is ridiculous. It's disrespectful. I like the Bears to win outright, but I certainly will take plus seven. Next up for this weekend, not as sexy of the game, Texans plus three and a half at the Colts. A lot of different ways I could highlight this game, Texans defense, but let's just ask what's happened to the Indianapolis Colts offense. First nine weeks of the season, they were a juggernaut.

first eight weeks in the season. Weeks nine through 12, it's falling off, 10 points per game, the turnovers have gone up, the sacks have gone up, Daniel Jones' efficiency has plummeted, and they have allowed, they're playing a team that is a ton of sacks. But I got a question, broken fibula, look at Daniel Jones walking right here. This is, that is his practice video. I don't know. Does that look like a guy who's about to run away from Will Anderson and DeNeal Hunter? Not to me. I think the Texans can win that game outright. Love of them plus three and the hook. Final one, sorry Willie Colon.

The Buffalo Bills, I'll lay the points in Pittsburgh. I still think these teams are in a different class. Buffalo minus three and a half in Pittsburgh. Buffalo has been inconsistent this year, undeniable. Their best is best. The Steelers have also been fairly inconsistent. But Buffalo coming off that loss to Houston with extra rest. When Josh Allen has had extra rest, 10 or more days,

so coming off a biweek or coming off of a Thursday game, they just, they bludgeon people. They scored 38 points. They blow you out by about 26 per game. And Josh Allen doesn't turn the ball over. So if they score 38, I think that'll be enough to cover the three and a half. Bears plus the points, Texans plus the points. I'll lay it with the bills in Pittsburgh.

Willie Cologne, don't judge a man, in a cape with some bling and a turkey on his head. Yeah. That's a three in a week. I think the best part of your outfit is definitely the turkey on your head. Thank you. Point that out. Now, listen, I really see the Eagles getting after the bear. They had a heartbreak and loss to the Cowboys.

You have to think they're going to rally and respond better, especially in the run game. Sayycon was shut down, only down in the second half of that Dallas game. He only had 22 yards. That's not what they want, that's the one, that's what they want to live. So I think the Eagles are going to have a big game against the bears. All right, you can be wrong. Coach, perfect three and no week.

I agree, yes? Well, coming off a perfect three and oh yesterday by myself, you know, myself, I'd say that this is a pretty good round of picks. I like the bears as well, but that may be a little bit more of a heart pick for me. I'm hoping that they can show that they can compete with the big boys. In terms of Houston, 23 points may be too much. I know it's not as much as Indianapolis was scoring, but 23 may be too much for them to match. And the Bill's pick, I'm with you on that too.

I like all three. I'm probably most questioned about the Texans pick. Greg, would you like to borrow my turkey? And how do you feel my picks are? Well, I don't need to borrow the turkey. Okay. I don't mind the picks. And I do want to highlight, obviously, the Texans and Colts.

Like, the Colts, you show the footage of Daniel Jones, they better get Jonathan Taylor back rolling because that's going to support what they've been all season offensively. Your Bears pick, though, like, I'm kind of with, I just believe that the Eagles are going to bounce back. But we will see that we always checkmarked games that will solidify whether a team is legitimate or not. And this is one of those games that if the bears show up, even if in a loss, how they lose, it will matter moving forward for them. Well, we're going to get into that game coming up in terms of, you already know what my pick is for the game. But how it's going to go, Caleb Williams' chances to keep up with Jail and Hertz. And a little Black Friday edition of Stock Up, Stockdown.

All coming up on FT. Stay with us. We're just over three hours until kickoff of Bears and Eagles in Philadelphia. The Bears, one of the surprise teams of the NFL, the Eagles, the champs can't go three days without some form of dysfunction, but they also mostly win, even though they're coming off of a loss. Here's Jalen Hertz on the Eagles' identity or lack thereof. I've come up here. We talked about a lot of different ways that we've won football games.

And so I think what you're saying is important, obviously, to go into a game, find a flow, have an identity. But from a bigger point of view, nothing takes precedent over finding ways to win. And so that's the most important thing. And we've been able to win games in different ways. And so we've just got to settle in an identity. All right, Greg, I'm going to start with you here. Everyone knows where my heart lies, my allegiances, and I just picked the Bears plus the seven. So I'll get to kind of some rationale here in a second.

But what do you think is more likely? Because this is a seven-point spread in this game. An Eagles blowout or a bear's upset. Well, I want to say a blowout because I feel like they're due offensively to start clicking. However, I'm going to go with what I've been seeing on tape. And I'm going to say a bear's upset is likely because this team, when you listen to their quarterback and Jalen Hurts talking about settling into an identity and having the awareness to know that, yes, he's mentioned earlier in the season, well, we can win a variety of ways, right? I think sometimes when you get to this point in the

season, you have to understand, okay, this is who we are. And we just haven't seen who they are in terms of them offensively. Now defensively, they figured out some things. Obviously, Phillips being added to that defense has changed the landscape of who they are up front. But offensively, they've still run into the same hurdles and haven't figured out how they're going to approach them from week to week. And so when you look at this Bears team, they have a chance to go in here to Philly and really rattle them even more and make them question who they are even more later in the season, which is what we've been doing as talking heads all season long because of what we've been seeing specifically in their passing game. Yeah, I'm going to go Eagles blow out. I think the loss they suffered in Dallas was significant because they were up 21 points. And I thought the second half, you saw this Dallas team really kind of act like a boa constricted

and really kind of suck the life out of this Eagles offense. And they didn't know how to respond. And when you talk about a level of physicality you need to play this time of year, it starts in the line of scrimmage, right? And when you're not able to run the ball like we're used to seeing the Eagles run the ball, you got to say, hey, man, what else can we do? And I think for the Eagles right now, instead of trying to. run between the tackles, you got to start attacking the perimeter. You love to see tosses and

screens and things where you can open the office up and continue to feed AJ Brown because he's a big target. I like the Eagles, man. I think they just have to settle and remain consistent through all four quarters. I thought coming out of halftime against the Cowboys, they kind of let off the throttle and the Cowboys are ready for the fight and they couldn't respond to it. And listen, I think the Eagles are dangerous coming off a loss, but clearly I think it's a Bears upset. I picked it in the last segment. But I think the Eagles are going to be able to run the ball. The Bears run the Bears Rundee is bad. But Jalen Johnson is back for this game.

He's their best corner. Kyler Gordon is back. He's the Bears' second best corner. Jalen's been out all year. Kyler Gordon's only played in two games. That is going to help the Bears pass defense significantly. And if you could quantify vibes, the Bears, I'm sure you both have been on teams like this,

where you just believe, whether it's like you looked at Aaron and you were like, oh yeah, that guy's on my side, I believe. Or you looked at Ben and it was like, all right, that guy's on my side, I believe. The bears, sometimes weird things happen and it's inexplicable. Honestly, because I don't think the bears are great. I don't think they're a complete. You say you don't think they're great. I don't think they're great.

But I think that they're good and they truly believe. And so what this opportunity is for the bears, it's an opportunity to validate it. And if they lose, they'll get another one because they play the Packers twice and they play the line. So it's not their only chance at validation. But national TV game, everyone's questioning how real it is, you're a huge underdog. There's something to when you're having that special season, Greg, where I actually do believe that they're going to just seize this opportunity on a short week in front of 30 million people or whatever that'll be watching the game and they'll shock the world.

Yeah, I'm with you there. Like, when you were a young team with a young coach and specifically a young quarterback and you look at that offensive side and those skilled guys being a little younger. Like you don't know what you don't know. And so I'm not going to fear what I really don't know to fear. And that's playing great football and needing to execute at a high level and crunch time at the end of the season. Well, in my mind, we've been doing that all year.

These wins that we're talking about of the Bears and this position of how are they, are they really an elite team? Are they a good team? Are they a great team? They believe that they are elite. Like you can't tell anyone in that organization, anyone in that building that they can't go into Philly and win this game. And so I say that because that is scary when you are playing the way that Philly is playing

and you have a team that's coming in that just they really don't believe that they're not a good team. They believe that we are eight and three. We're leading our division. We deserve to be here and we're about to prove it today on the national stage. And Caleb Williams has an opportunity to really just continue to solidify kind of this story of, you know what, he finds a way to come away with wins because we can call it whatever we want to, you know, luck, happenstance. Clutch. When he gets the ball and it's late in the game, he comes through for this team. They find a way to come through, Willie.

We're going to be asking some questions. Which team is the better quarterback? Which team is the better coach? We're going to be asking those types of questions after the bears pull up and upset. What perfect time to check your portfolio than a Black Friday. Let's do a little edition of Stockup, Stockdown. Unfortunately, we are going to begin in the red. Lamar Jackson stock is down as a passer.

Is he hurt? Do teams not fear I'm running the ball? What's the reason? he had gone 34 consecutive games with at least one passing touchdown. He now has zero passing touchdowns in three consecutive games. Listen, I don't believe that where some of his all-time passer ratings is, oh, is Lamar Jackson a better passer than Dan Marino and Tom Brady? Like, I sometimes think numbers can lie a little bit,

but he is a good passer. And the guy I watched last night, not a doctor, just a person with eyes who watches 15 hours alive football every week, That doesn't look like Lamar Jackson, so his stock is down as a passer and a runner. Yeah, I definitely say down. Just so just his presence overall. You talk about sitting in the pocket and be able to deliver the football. He looks like he's regress.

He's back on the, he's behind in his timing. He looks in this size. And right now, we don't know what he does well at the position, right? Because he's not able to run it and he's not on time with the football. So I'm going to say stock down. You selling, Greg? I am selling for this year. I really am.

Look, I believe in Lamar Jackson. I know he's a good pass. It's just not clicking. They're off schedule too much and he's choosing to hold the ball to extend plays to push the ball down the field. I don't love what I'm seeing. I like what their defense is turning into,

but offensively they're regressing. Well, here's one that's volatile like Bitcoin. Jordan Love, your stock is up. You just can't check this portfolio every single day. You're just hoping for long-term growth. He is not, he is a streaky player, but he's very talented. He's very talented as a passer.

These are just his passingers. 234 passing yards yesterday, his most since week 9. Most in a win since week 8. But 234 passing yards on 18 completions. He is a big play hunter. It's fourth and two. I'll throw it 30 yards down the field. And it just, it worked yesterday.

Fourth down to ice the game. Two touchdowns on fourth down conversions, Greg. That version of Jordan Love is a bad, bad man. I'm so elated to hear you say that, Danny, because I call it like I see it. I appreciate that because sometimes I don't believe that you call it how you see it. Oh, thank you. His stock is definitely up. He definitely performed great.

Obviously, he still has to do that for the remainder of the season, for them to make a deep run. But I believe in Jordan Love, I like what he's been doing. Yeah, he won me over, especially on our fourth and three, where he delivered the ball to Wicks, man. That was a clutch move. I think right now what you're seeing there more and more faithful for is having him to deliver in crucial situations. So, yeah, stock up for me. And again, I don't know that he can do it consistently throughout the playoffs. But yesterday, that was undeniably impressive.

Last one, stock down. Lions playoff chances. These are their Super Bowl odds over the course of the year. They're right now 25 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. It's basically a coin flip, minus 125, that the Lions will even make the play. The NFC is just in a situation where one or two really good teams. Right now it would be the Cowboys and Lions are going to miss the playoffs. And last year it was the Lions defense with all of those guys on IR.

Now all of a sudden, Leporta is out. Amon Ross St. Brown gets hurt in the game yesterday. Their starting center is out. Their number two tight end was out. And then we're talking about Frank Ragnow coming out of retirement. Like I just, I think there might be too many injuries on the offensive side of the ball, Willie, for my Super Bowl pick in the NFC to even make the playoffs. Yeah, my stock isn't up or down.

I'm going to say it's flat right now. I still believe they have enough on the offensive side of the ball to rebound and be better. I think the injuries was really killing them. And I don't blame Dan Campbell for having blind faith in his team, especially in crucial situations. He believes in what this team could do, especially on fourth down. If they're able to execute better yesterday, this is a whole different outcome. I'm in a whole different storyline for this team.

So I'm going to say flat stock for me. Stock definitely down. I'm with Danny and it's unfortunate because we all know to your point, Danny, this is a really good team. It's just unfortunate that they're suffering the injuries that they're suffering after the year that we saw last year. But stock down. It's jam packed in the NFC right now at the top and they're looking like the team that's going to be out. Yeah, I can't honestly, like it's not as hard to believe as the Chiefs, but like they have have so much talent on that team that the idea of them missing the playoffs.

Like we're not going to talk about it quite as much, but it's a huge fall from grace for them for a team with legit Super Bowl aspirations coming into the season. Yeah, I think the biggest glaring thing about happening yesterday is about that D-Lon and not be able to get after Jordan Love at home. That was shocking for me. Yeah, the Packers definitely won that battle in terms of being able to disrupt golf more than the other side of the ball. Coming up, Chiefs fans in a position they haven't been in in seven, eight years.

got to be an odd feeling. We'll discuss. Just catch the ball. All right, let's get into Cowboys and Chiefs, and I know they were only a three and a half point favorite. So the loss isn't shocking. It's that there are six losses for the Chiefs, 12 games through the season.

Mahomes was great. He had four touchdowns. It's another must-win game where they come out with a loss. And I did radio in Kansas City for seven years. The question is, how should Chiefs fan? feel today. Chiefs fans are incredible. And obviously, Nick is my best friend, Chiefs fan, my wife's family from Kansas City, all Chiefs fans. My mom's side of the family from Kansas City, all Chiefs fans. I've been going to Arrowhead my entire life. This is a fan base that for forever

believed that they would never get over the hump. They didn't draft a quarterback that had won a single game before Mahomes. It had to go back to Todd Blackledge. They would lose a game with no punts to the Colts. They would lose a game when Jamal Charles got a concussion and Andrew Luck fumbled to himself. And, like, they've obviously come out on the other side of that, and they're now a dynasty. Chiefs fans wake up in very unfamiliar territory today, Greg, where, like, the only thing you can hang your hat on is, well, we've figured it out before. We figured it out before, right?

Because, like, this is a flashback moment. Like, this is, like, post-Mahomes, prima-homes, Greg. This feels like prima-homes type of stuff for the Chiefs. And I feel for the Chiefs fans in my life right now. I really do. You feel for them. I do. Although I like taunting Nick.

What I believe. This is what I believe. And maybe this is because I've been having this pumped into my system, in my brain. When I'm sitting at that desk from my left, they better be posturing themselves saying, never a doubt. I still believe that's what they better be saying. I don't want to hear any, man, this is just not a, I don't, never a doubt. Never. You better not, I better not hear Nick say anything and have any other posture than I believe,

I believe in my guys. They'll get it done. Because Patrick Mahomes, looking at him in that press conference, it's a little different. Like, and he played great. And I think that's the frustration that you kind of see underlining. Correct. When he's talking about we got to win them all, it's like, I'm doing everything I possibly can. And he really is, but everybody has to match that energy.

And I'm not certain with the way the season has unwrapped, unraveled for them, that they're going to be able to match that. So that never a doubt, scratch that out. Some doubt. Well, the doubt shows up because they realize there's nobody coming through that. that do it or save them. This is who they are and this is what they have. And there's another game down a drain,

you know, losing to a one score game. But I also think right now, to Greg's point, Patrick Mahomes is playing as best as he could. I mean, you're talking about time after time making plays with his feet off to all He was great. Like there's nothing else he can do. And I didn't realize, man,

they just, it may not be their year overall. Well, so that's the thing, right? Like sometimes we do and it's, we're guilty of it. We will do analysis of like, we ask the question like multiple times. Like, can DAC outplay Mahomes? Right.

And it's like, well, Mahomes did outplay DAC, but they lost. And that's not to say that DAC wasn't all so great. But Mahomes was the better player on the field yesterday. And it doesn't matter because it's a team game. Like, yesterday, and I don't know if we have the graphic from earlier or not, but yesterday was a Chief's defense loss. Like that, that, right? And those are the penalties and everything.

Yeah, they had two past interferences on. on the last drive to ice it out. They had 10 penalties in the game. They got a takeaway on the first drive of the game and then allowed 450 yards. I mean, look at this. After the first drive of the game, they force one punt the rest of the way.

So yesterday, the Chiefs lost because of their defense. There have been times this year where they've lost because of their offense. But like they just they can't, because by the way, their defense ranks fine. Their offense ranks fine. We like their. quarterback. We like their coach. It's just that they haven't put it together, Greg, consistently

at the same time, and they are losing the one score games, which they dominated in last year, and they wake up today at six and six. And the only thing they really can hang their hat on is the pedigree. Yeah, the chiefs have been that team that both on offense and defense, third down, you're kind of like, man, they're going to get the stop and they're going to convert, No matter what the distance is, they're going to get the stop and they're going to convert. Yesterday, the Cowboys appeared and literally had the vibrato of, we don't care whatever the distance is, we're going to convert, and there's nothing you can do about it. And that was what was strange and what really stood out for me on third down,

the Cowboys were almost 60% on third down conversions. And it was just like there was nothing that spags, could throw at them that they weren't able to counter. And with all the weapons, guys getting out, DAC getting guys, just hitting guys out of the backfield. Ferguson, obviously, C.D. Lamb and George Pickens are playing outside their mind. George Pickens is playing, having one of the best years of all the receivers in terms of highlights, in terms of just being able to step up and be what's needed for his team.

It's been special to watch, but this defense just hasn't looked. like when we need it, we'll get the stop. That's not who they are right now. Yeah, and I also think right now, if you're the Cowboys, your confidence is also because of the boys up front. I know I mentioned it early. This Office of Line is playing at a high level, and that's why Dak is able to have a clean operation.

You talk about last year, two-fills of their office line were young guys. They've gotten younger and they've gotten better collectively. So you talk about the ceiling for this office, man, along as those guys continue to play well up front, continue to be having efficiency in the run game, and Dak does what he does with the toys. and pieces around them, man.

The Cowboys are a legit, scary team. They are, and we'll see if they get in, and the Chiefs, they'll feel like, man, because Mahomes said it yesterday, he's like, we've proven we can beat anybody, but we can lose to anybody. And now they've got to win out. I just don't know why I would think that they can win out.

Will they beat the Raiders? Sure. Will they beat the Titans? Sure. But that just means the Chargers got to get them. The Broncos got to get them. They just need to lose one more because they're not going to have any of the tiebreakers.

But you're usually unwavering. Like, you're usually the raw. along with Nick. Like, you guys hold strong. I am surprised. I know. I know. I'm a home to play bat.

Again, it's more than the quarterback. I'm shocked. I'm saying what I'm saying. Danny. How would you say great? Get out ahead of it, Danny. I am shocked, but I will tell you this much. Caleb Williams, an opportunity to validate it all against Philly.

Time now for first things last. Bill Parcells famously said, you are what your record says you are. Now I think a more accurate phrase would have been, yeah, technically you are what your record says you are, but a combination of results, data, and the eye test paints a more accurate picture of the relative strength of a football team when accounting for single game variance. I'm really fun at parties.

And Parcells has 183 more wins than I do, so his saying stuck. Believe it or not, this brings me to the Chicago Bears. Parcells would say they are a first place 8 and 3 football team, and of course that's true. But using my gauge, Are they a product of the easiest schedule in the NFL, yet with a negative point differential and an unsustainable record in one-score games? Or are they a clutch, resilient, improving team with a wildly talented quarterback who is

maturing before our eyes under the tutelage of a mastermind head coach? I would say yes to both descriptions. But here's what I think makes them scary for the rest of the league. Ben Johnson repeatedly said in training camp in early in the year that this team would be playing its best football at the end of the year. And they are. The run game has been number one in the NFL since they're by. They also have the most explosive plays in the league, and Caleb has been sacked just 17 times after a league high 68 a year ago. Now defensively, they've been awful. But they also have been awfully injured. Jalen Johnson, Kyler Gordon, and Tremaine Edmonds all should be back at some point,

and for my money, that's three of the top four players on defense. So if the offense keeps improving and the defense gets healthy, this team is just about as dangerous as any. That's all for the future. Today they get the champs. The winner is the two-seed in the NFC. It's a national TV opportunity to send a statement to the rest of the league that their record actually is who they are. Or to put it another way,

three hours from now, the Chicago Bears get to play a three-hour football game to validate the last three months. No pressure. Thank you so much for being with us on FTFOT. Enjoy your leftovers. Enjoy the game. We'll be back on Monday.