First Things First - Lakers lose to Magic, Bears over 9.5 wins, Nick’s Tiers, Should Steelers fans want Rodgers back?

Episode Date: February 25, 2026

(0:00) Magic beat Lakers, Too early for Los Angeles to panic?  (27:09) Bears, Bengals, Lions Over/Under (39:27) Should Aaron Rodgers come back to the Steelers? (44:52) Nick’s NBA Tiers (01:05:26) Will Drake Maye take a step back or forward in Year 3? (01:22:09) Knicks fall to Cavaliers Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Live from New York, it's a show that is back. Three days after our vacation, we are here. You know what? You look awful tanned and rested. Buddy, we had vacation. Not me. Mine's in about a week and a half. I was working. I was out there working.

This is like a rare baseball card. It's just great to see you. You know what? It's amazing. We have done a lot. of shows. Yeah. I would venture that over the last eight and a half years on sports TV,

nobody has a better attendance than me. Nobody. I know. I wish I could say the same thing about the audience in those early days. You were there. Bruce, you were a part of that. No,

no, once Bruce came in every once in a while. I came in every once in a while. First hour, first things first. Today, two stars. One, bad shot. Is it panic time for the Lakers? Meanwhile, another edition of over under. The one or two stats about the Bears that will make you think, huh, maybe they are due for a step backwards

from 11 wins. You saw something. No, what he discovered my eye was watching the Bears games. What he discovered, people talking bad about Drake May's playoffs and good about Caleb's playoffs despite Caleb's interceptions. So Wilds has gone full heel. Not true. Not just the interceptions. Also just throwing the ball into the ground. Which I know avoids a sack a lot.

Don't get me wrong. And finally, a special edition of NBA tiers. How high will the Celtics be? Maybe even overrated, bro. They can't be that high. They can't be that high. Nice season. Cute, but cute.

Cute. The best defense in the league. Okay. What are you okay? It's just. They're cute. team. The best defense in the league.

Could have a chance to win it all. Yeah. Well, Jason Taylor's not there right now. Well, he gets back, sure. But now they're cute. You're going to tell me they're more than cute right now. Well, if you're the best team in the league, the magic are cute. I mean, like, right, I don't think Denver can win the title without Aaron Gordon.

He's not there right now, but he'll be back. We think he'll be back. Hobbs, can we put a go to the whiteboard? Bruce cute team. as a segment in the future. Maybe around out. Right. Maybe like a, maybe like brew like winking at them.

They're cute team. We start at the end in LA. Magic take the lead in the fourth. Lakers have seven seconds left after a timeout. Final play goes to Luca, who pump fakes it and then says, gives it to LeBron. I was like, what I'm supposed to do with it? Shoots a turnaround three-pointer that misses.

Here's LeBron and Luca post game. No, we executed. We executed it. Like I said, I felt like, I'm not sure. I mean, obviously, to ask Luca what he saw on that, but I thought he had a good look, and it looked like he kind of just lost his balance,

you know, didn't have a rhythm with the ball, whatever the case may be, and it kind of allowed him to get back in front of him. You know, I was kind of off balance when he gave it to me. I thought he had a great look, but that's what I looked. That's my POV. I know I was open, but I just thought I was a little bit far, try to take one dribble closer.

Probably shouldn't pick him with the ball. Just trying to attack. I mean, I just saw I'm open. I didn't want to lose the ball. And we didn't have timeouts, you know. But like I said, you know, shouldn't have picked up the ball. I should attack.

I thought I was getting a clean look. But that's on me. What? Are you surprised Luke and LeBron botched this? Well, LeBron didn't botch it. No, no. That's true. And LeBron just caught it and threw up a desperation.

It actually was a decent shot by him, a turnaround three. Turnaround three guys away. Luca botched it, and yes, I'm surprised because Luca's been in bigger moments than this and hasn't had any issue. They called a play for him. They executed the play. They got him to open look right there. A shot, obviously, he can hit.

And he just froze. He punted. Now, I don't think he's lying. I do think, you know, he obviously can shoot the ball from that distance. He said he's kind of far out. But that's because he just wasn't in rhythm. No matter where you're at on the court, you got to feel the rhythm,

you got to kind of feet set, whatever, and he wasn't set. Now, that's not an excuse because it's his job. He knew the play. He knew I was going to get it behind the three-point line, be ready to shoot it, be set, and he just wasn't ready. And so, look, I also got to say this.

I don't think LeBron threw him under the bus. Some people are saying LeBron threw him under the bus. LeBron just said exactly what happened. And Luca said himself, it's on me. I don't think that was insulting. I don't think he was criticizing Luca. I think he told it like it was. Now, I'll say this, Nick, for Luke, it's been a tough week for Luke.

Yeah. And people may feel like we're, we've been critical of him. I've said, I think now it's on the board. He might not win a ring. I think that's on the board. Chris Paul said, I'm taking SGA over Luca and all that stuff. But here's the deal. The honeymoon's over.

Luca, and maybe people would say that when he left Dallas, that was the case, because that obviously rocked his world. But when you enter the NBA as a top player, your first phase is establish yourself as either a star or a superstar. Okay? He established himself as a superstar. Then you get the bag. You get that max deal and all that. Nobody's caring about winning early.

Cooper flags playing great. Nobody cares that they're losing every game. He puts up huge numbers. Because LeBron missed the playoffs first two years. Nobody cares. Your first job as a young star, established that you are a star in this league. Now he's got the bag.

He's been, you know, all NBA and all that stuff. Now he's at the phase where, okay, it's about winning. Are you going to win? Because that's what separates the immortals from the other, all time great players, right? Do you win? And so now, look, we're going to give Luca love for his numbers.

We all are going to acknowledge he's a great individual player. He may win an MVP or more than that, whatever. But until he wins a ring, he's going to be over scrutinized and over-criticized and people

are going to nitpick at his game, every little bit of his game that might be holding him back from winning. It happened to LeBron. It happened to James Harden. It happened to Alan Iverson, Ewing, Jordan, whoever. That's what they're, yeah, Jordan, they said, oh, he could score, but he doesn't win and all that. So that's the phase Lucas is at. And then on top of that, Nick, he's a Laker.

So now with the Lakers, you got to win it. I said it when LeBron went there. You better win a championship because all of them except Elgin Baylor won a championship with the Lakers. All right. So let me respond to that and then get to the end of the. the play. So I agree with all that. I also think it is important to remind the audience that for another few days,

he's 26. Most of those guys that we talked about, the legends did not win, had not wanted to. He came in earlier, though. He didn't come in earlier than Braun. No, but it took Brian a long time, ninth year. For the Brown, that was a long time. No, correct. And then he ended up winning a bunch, is my point.

obviously came in older, but didn't win until he's 27. Luca has, Luca, up until this season, I would argue, has been at or ahead of schedule. As far as making a finals, making another deep playoff run. When you compare him to other guys that we think could be legendary players, he was not lacking in the winning. He made a finals younger than Janus, younger than Joker, you know, and, you know, And neither Janice nor Joker won their championship at 26. You know, and so, but so it is really this moment this year after the trade where the screws could tighten a bit.

And I don't know if that's what's getting to him, but certainly since the game, prior to his hamstring injury, he was 33, 8 and 9, 33 8 and 9 on the season on 48%. And in the five games since that hamstring injury, he's 24, 6, and 8 on 38%. So he hasn't been quite as good. And he hasn't been himself. Luk Adansic does not mind taking super deep threes. No. Some of the most famous Lukat Anjic playoff moments are super deep threes. His first truly awesome playoff moment was a three.

I should have had him pull the video. A game winner. against the clippers from that exact spot on the court. And honestly, I don't remember, it might have actually literally been that exact spot on the court because I think that game was in LA

back when they played at Staples. And so I, it was odd to see him hesitate when the play was drawn, when they got exactly what the play was drawn up to do. Like I, credit to JJ Reddick for drawing, getting exactly what he hoped to get.

Like, we're not showing the action. All four Lakers start in the back court. And it's a play I think they stole from the Warriors because the Warriors, you remember, on Christmas against the Lakers a couple years ago, ran this to get Steph a game tying three with six seconds left in a game that I think LeBron then went down and hit the game winner.

And so it was bizarre. And as far as Wilde's, LeBron's answer, I don't 100% agree with Brooke. I do not think he was trying to throw Luca under the bus, but I think he was being honest in his surprise in a way that Braun, in my history, watching him do press conferences, he almost always protects his teammates.

And it might be a sign of respect that Luca is the best player, on this team now and an all-time grade himself. He doesn't need protecting. You know what I mean? He is of my... And so... What do you think he said that was critical? Maybe he's out of rhythm a little bit. Hey, it happens. I had

a chance for it. You've seen him sort of circle the wagons on guys if Anthony Davis misses a shot. I think that if that was Austin, if that exact, let's say Luca didn't play and that exact play happened with Austin, I think LeBron lies and says, I

screwed that up. Oh, really? I don't think he lies. I don't think he goes that far. Well, okay, so maybe that's a bridge too far. But my point is, I think, and Austin's maybe not the right example. I just have seen LeBron a lot. Abrani is for the other. I have seen LeBron a lot, I think, you know, when a teammate, not on the court with his reaction, but in the media, if a teammate screws up, him find a way to kind of shift that. He was very honest about what happened here.

And that was, yeah, I mean, I was surprised, as you guys were, that Luca didn't take that shot. All right, let's zoom out a little bit. Lakers go four and four on this homestand that started on February 5th. So LeBron, fairly, was asked about the last three weeks. They've been at home, and they went four and fourth. Here was his answer. How would you assess where this team's adding in the growth that you guys have had

over the past three weeks? I didn't even know what today was when I woke up. You asked me about the last three weeks. Come on, Sam. I'm going to ask champ. This is a new, a new version of LeBron. It reminded me really quick Bruton before you go. When he was asked about Keante George, he's like, man, I don't know.

I'm watching golf. I'm watching golf. It's just, it doesn't, he doesn't seem to be as locked in as I had previously seen. Well, he said, he said, what, a year ago, Bruce. everything's extra credit at this point. No, yeah. And that he feels, not starting this argument here, he feels I'm the greatest player of all time,

I have all the records, and now everything I'm doing is just because I enjoy playing ball, and I think some of his answers are like that. There was a little bit of a, and you see Sean McVeigh do this, like, hey, do you want me to go through the exact play and where the ball went from three weeks ago in the second quarter?

because I can do it. But now he's like, I don't know. Who'd we play the six or six? He's got a photographic memory. It was too soon for the Lakers to hit the panic bud. No. And I hesitate to say panic because I just don't think that their championship caliber. So it's not like, oh my gosh, they're waking up today saying we're not a championship team.

I think they know it. And I think LeBron knows it. And I think that's part of this whole thing too. But look, we know the two problems. They can't play defense. And their big three don't fit. It's as simple as that. They don't fit together.

All right. LeBron, Luca, and Austin Reeves. Last night was a case in point. All right. I've said it's my turn, your turn, offense. Now, all three of those guys are unselfish. So they're rocking up assists. The ball moves a little bit with each one of them when they have it.

But last night, LeBron had 10 points in the first quarter. Austin Reeves had zero. in the third quarter Austin Reeves had 10 points LeBron had two like it's one or the other or something like that and it's because not because they're selfish and LeBron has gotten off the ball but neither of them the three can be their best off the ball that's the issue like so when Luca might as well not even be on the court when somebody else has the ball because all he does is go over and stand and watch I mean. I'm just keeping it real. LeBron has gotten better off the ball, but he's not, he's spotting up a lot for three. He's not at his best doing that. And Reeves is, you know. And it's not helping that LeBron's having his worst three-point shooting year in forever.

Yeah. I mean, look, honestly, and we got some graphics, when LeBron and Luca, their best two players, I'm going to say LeBron's second best, they don't fit together. They got the worst point differential on the team, all right, minus 82. And you can, there are numbers that show when Luke and Reeves play together, their rate, it's like plus 18 net rating. When LeBron plays by himself without those two, it's plus nine. All right.

So the bottom line is I think there's two options for them to try to help win. And I'm going to get to, I think, I know you know one. The first one, no, first one I'm going to say this. LeBron could try to play differently. Oh, okay. In that try to get, I think they should use the pick and roll with LeBron and Luca. And LeBron can either pop or roll to the rim. Like, I think he could have to play a little more like a big with Luca.

All right, that's one thing. But beyond that, one of those three needs to go to bench. It's not going to be Luca. Okay, so who is it? Austin, you. You could say him, but you want to keep him. Does that rub him the wrong way? LeBron obviously has the stature where you wouldn't want to see that.

But because he's, him by himself is good. And those two together is good. Luke and Austin. LeBron might be the answer, but you got to sit down. And I'm just out of respect. JJ, sit down with him and say, look, are you willing to do this? Or it could be Austin. But I think one of them has the compliment.

Listen, I think if this were 2K, the best basketball answer to solving the problem you're describing is Lucan A.R. play together, and LeBron runs the show by himself. You know what I mean? You segment it like that. And the easiest way to do that is to put LeBron in the Manu role. Manu's a Hall of Famer. Like, that's the –

Didn't we do this with Russ just like two years ago? Like Russ doesn't fit. Russ go to the bench. He's too big of a superstar. But here's why I actually think that is whistling through the graveyard to a degree. I don't really care who starts. If we're talking about a team-winning playoff games, it's about who's on the court at the end of games.

And what we're saying is their three best players don't make sense together on the court at the end of games. So because even when, like, Manu was coming off the bench, he was playing crunch time. You know what I mean? And so he was coming off the bench to provide a spark to the second unit. it not because he didn't fit with Parker and Duncan. It is, they are that stupid Pokemon

meme of like the three different lizards, the like best of the smallest. I'm talking about lizards. No, I'm talking about Pokemon actually. But it's, it's 50 years old. Luca modeled his game after

LeBron. He has said that. LeBron is now a lesser version of, you know what I mean? So it is, Luca is the apex version of this ball dominant scorer who can also pass. LeBron is at this point at 41, a slightly lesser version of that, and Austin's a slightly lesser

version of that. It's just the three of the same archetype. And so it is, it just doesn't fit well. And it's also, so last night was the first time I had said they were undefeated going into the, when leading going into the fourth, they then lost. And so, and they were playing with fire throughout the year on that. They finally lost one of those games. But here's the other thing, KW.

They're not as good as 34 and 23. And Hubs, if we just put up this. They don't even have a positive point. Well, so look at what their rankings are. So they have a pretty good offense. Not as good as it should be. They have a bad defense. They have a below average net rating.

They have a below average point differential, which is around the same. Yet, they have the 10th best record. Which leads you to believe They are at what? Oh, it's a little bit of an easy schedule? No, no, no. I didn't know.

I know they have a hard schedule. They've been clutch. They've been, you know, they have guys that are good down the stretch of games. My point is it me, I think that these 57 games, if you played them, you know, all 57, 100 times, they're probably closer to a 30 and 2017. Then a 34, maybe a 29 and 2018. Which, I mean, that's what they're, they have the statistical pro. profile of a team right around 500. They have the record of a team competing for home court in the first round.

And yeah, where I would panic KW is this. I just do not see how the Lakers are materially different in the ways they're bad this year, next year, aside from Janus saying, you have to trade me to L.A. Well, look, if LeBron is not very, there. Yes. And like we've shown it with Austin and Luca, they're good.

And I just think it's a fit. It's a matter of fit. And LeBron, look, they've talked and you've heard Rich Paul his agent say he wants to win championships. You know, that was going into this season. And if the Lakers aren't really there, then maybe go somewhere else. Wherever LeBron goes, though,

he's going to have to adjust because nobody's building their team around you anymore at 41 or 42 years old. And if you go to a team that's ready to, win like you're the missing piece like Cleveland say he would have to adjust well the Cleveland fit got so much harder once they traded for Hardin. You know what I like that because

it'll be a lot of the same problems we're talking about right here but my point is next year for the Lakers Brew assuming bronze gone yes now the fit might work better but you're still lacking a team of defenders and a team of shooters and now Janus might be great enough that the Janus

and Luca combo can paper over that but if it's not Janus they got Janus. They got Janus. It's a whole thing. Yeah, but without that, I just don't think that they are an off-season couple tweaks away from having a flushed-out championship roster. Drew, last word about LeBron coming off the bench. I think it would work if it started earlier in the year.

Do you think winning six-man of the year is at all a carrot for him for his trophy case next year? Next year? Well, I don't think you just, I don't think you can win six-man of the year this year. I think, yeah, no, he couldn't win this year. I don't think he hasn't played enough game. Whether it's this year or next year, it just depends on LeBron's ego. Is he willing to accept it? And if he's not, that's fine.

I think he's done enough to. I think he can split the baby like, yes, I have a big ego. I'm the best. I did it one year and I became the best. He could be six man in the year next year once. All right. Headed to Dallas. The Cowboys want to make Brennan Aubrey the highest paid kicker in the league.

Calvin Watkins reporting a multi-year deal around $7.5 million per year. Aubrey's camp kicked that offer to the curb. How about 10 million? Cowboys trying to figure it out. Here's how good of a kicker he is. Field goal percentage is fifth best all time, 88%. 50 yard makes 35. It's seven more than anyone else since 2020.

And I think that field goal percentage is unfair to him. Because he hit some bombs. Because they, they try, they asked him to try. At a 65 yard and a half. Nobody else would try. And so you can only franchise tag one guy. Yes.

They're talking about franchise tagging pickings. Yeah. Who's more of an important offseason priority? Listen, I think Brandon Aubrey is one of the most important weapons in the league. Now, he's a restricted free agent, which means, you know, it's a little complicated. Teams can then sign him away, but they'd have to give up a draft pick for it, not the same as the franchise tag. And they can tinder him.

If they tender him in the second round, then a team, if he signs it, then that team has to give up a second round pick in addition. of the contract. Here's the thing. If I'm a team like Denver, I would do that. And I would, I would, Denver in particular because I don't totally trust their offense,

the thin air up there, you start the possession at the 35 after a touchback, are you one first down away? If we get 11 yards on the drive and we are, you know, at our own 46, you know, at our own 46, and so are we in field goal range in Denver?

Close to it. 15 yards definitely. I would give Brandon Aubrey if I were a contender such as Denver the kicker version of the Mahomes deal. I'd give him a 10-year $75 million contract. And 50 million guaranteed. And guess what? I just don't have to have all my worries as a football team.

Kicker is taken care of for a decade. I think he's that good. and I think the new kickoff rules have made a guy like that that much more valuable. He has been in the league three years. He's been in all pro all three years. And if I'm Dallas, I would, same thing. 10 years 75 million. I know you want 10 million a year, but how about what we're offering you, but for a decade.

And you'll be the highest paid kicker right now, and you'll still hold the record in 2050 as the highest pay. kicker. Like, I think he has that type of value. And to me, it is easier to find George Pickens than Brandon Aubrey. Oh, yeah. And so I would, I would prioritize him. I like that. I would

prioritize him, too. Wow. Yeah, no question. And I've said it, but now I'm going to show it. George Pickens is great. I think he's more talented than C.D. Lamb. All right? He was better last year than C.D. Lamb. But look at their off. If if that Prescott is healthy,

they're going to have a top offense, period, with or without George Pickens. So this graphic shows 21, 22, 23, 24. Their offensive rankings with DAC now, and the number of games, DAC played. Even when he played only 12, they were fourth. That's when you would have been first or second. Cooper Rush played. All right.

They would have been first or second maybe with DAC 17 games, 16 games. Last year or 2024, obviously he was injured half. year they drop. This year they still, even with George Pickens being great, they were only seventh offensively. And so I don't need, as great as he is, I don't need George Pickens. I think they have many other things, defense obviously, but this guy is a priority. You got to keep somebody I think would be willing to pay him 10 million years.

I think a team would be willing to give him to me. Look, Baltimore would have been in the playoffs this year. I'm not saying they would have reached the Super Bowl. But they'd have been in the playoffs without Patrick Mahomes in it if they had a kicker like Brandon Aubrey. And so let me just put it from a Chiefs fan perspective. If the Broncos who are in the division or the bills who are the perennial competition or the Ravens who are a perennial competition,

I would be way more bummed out as a Chiefs fan if either of any of those teams got Aubrey than if they got Pickens. and they all need wide receivers. They all really think they need wide receivers, and I would be more bothered by them getting Brandon Aubrey than I would by them getting George Bickens. Butker, $6.4 million a year.

He's the highest paid ever. Are the Bengals playoff bound next season? They have a low over-under. I'm rooting for him. Bro to the playoffs next. Yes, I'm a borough of those guys. They could be in the battle. I like guys who get to the Super Bowl

and don't win. Check out the podcast if you get a chance, and we are on the road. to 2 billion YouTube views. Where are we at, Jen? We're just about a billion show. What? Certainly 900.

Has the pace slowed, though? No. The pace is decreased, actually. So about five years. Fresh all animal edition of Over Under, Bears, Bengals, and Lions. We're going to start in Chicago. Caleb and Company won 11 games last year. This year, their schedule literally.

the toughest in the league based on last year's win totals and a lot of those because of their own division and everybody won. At home against the Bucks, Eagles, Jags, Jets, Patriots, Frisky Saints. And then in Buffalo, in Miami, Atlanta, Panthers, and in Seattle. Overunder's set at nine and a half. So not that much. We're doing a lot of ten and a halfs. Nick, do you want to start off with the Chicago Bears? Sure. I'll go over. I'm not as high on maybe the rest of the division as you guys might be. I'm not sure. In part because I saw what Green Bay looks like when they didn't

have Micah. That's true. And I think Micah, you know, Mahomes blew his ACL later than Micah. However, he had surgery the next day and he's a very different type of player. Like I could see that having more of an impact on Micah in the next year than Patrick. So that concerns me.

We're going to get to Detroit in a bit. So I don't, and Minnesota I think is a bit of a mess at the moment. So I don't think the division is quite as hard as it has been. And Chicago should only get better. They are a young team. It was the first year of Caleb and Ben Johnson, and we saw them get better over the course of the year. Final 10 games of the year, Caleb had 18 touchdowns, three interceptions. And then in the playoffs, he had the five interceptions and also the spectacular plays. I would be very surprised if the Bears take a major step back next year and going nine and eight would be a major step back. So yeah, I will go with

the over. I'm a strong over. Really? Absolutely. Like I agree with Nick. I see no reason to think they're going to fall backwards. Like Caleb is going to keep getting better. As great as he was at times last year, he still has a lot of room for improvement. And I think that Ben Johnson, another year with him, another offseason, he's going to improve in that. I think he's going to be more accurate. You talked about throwing balls in the dirt, like stuff like that. All the little things he had to improve on, I think he will. And I think last year, he kind of had to prove some things to Ben Johnson.

He did that. And now it seems like their relationship is great. So I just see improvement from him, the quarterback and the head coach together. And I get it. The division is tough. The schedule looks fairly tough. But I think they're a legitimate. NFC championship contender.

I'm not saying they're my pick or anything like that, but they are one of the top team. This is not, we don't do picks until prediction week. Yeah. Predictions week. You know, don't worry. That being said, you can put this in Penn. You can put this in a Sharpie.

What? Yeah, put it in. Orange I'm looking for. Under, strong under. Here's why. I am a fan of the spectacular, but not too much. Bears had six game winning scores

in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter or in overtime. They're pulling a lot of rabbits out of the hat. And I think just in general, an onside kick here, a blown coverage. He was spectacular, but I like three. I don't like six. It just feels like that's going to come down to a average margin of spectacular. Not six. Three, great.

That was Washington the year before. Yes, the Hail Mary. Like, maybe that doesn't go. And then your whole season goes differently. The other thing, and this is a little shot at Parkins in absentia, the takeaways on how great this Bears team on takeaways. Again, I think it's just a lot of how the ball bounces. This is your year to year once you led the league in takeaways. The 2026 Bears, we don't know where they're going to know.

Vikings led it last year. Then they moved to 10th. The Steelers, I guess, were good at it. Maybe it was a JJ Watt thing. Ravens led the league. Then they went down to 20th. The Giants led the league. led the league in takeaways.

They went down to 28th. The Cowboys led the Leagues and Takeaways. Was that the like the Duran Blan-Bland year? Yeah. Where we're like, man, they're just feasting on these and they're like making big plays. And I think it's an, it feels weird to say it's an artificial way to prop up your defense.

But no, it's not. We know their defense wasn't that good. So I, so I agree with all that. I just think there, I also think the team offensively was not very good for the first three quarters of a lot of games last year. year and then turned it on late. And I just think they will be better.

I think that Caleb and Ben Johnson year two is going to be that much better. I think the defense is where they're going to spend most of their offseason resources. So I just think that they have reason to believe they will have more talent on defense and be more of a well-oiled machine on offense so they won't need the spectacular. Do you think that J.J. McCarthy is going to come. Oh, Hobbs, you got lucky. I was about to start talking about completion present. Joe Burrow, this is, I wish this was higher because I'm rooting for Joe Burrow. Over Under is set at eight and a half for the Bengals.

Here are their non-division appointments, Brew. Chiefs, Jags, Titan Saints, Bucks. And then on the road, Indian D, Texans, Miami, commanders, Falcons, Panthers. I don't mind that at all. Third easiest schedule. But their over-under is moderately low. What do you got here? I've got a strong, well, over.

Okay, not strong. Just over. When Joe Burrow plays outside of his rookie year, when he only played, he missed 10 games, I think. They won four games, right. Outside of that, for the most part, they win when he plays. I know he came back to one year and they were five and five with him. But last year, they only won six games. But with him, he missed nine.

They were five and three. So this eight and a half, like, they're going, I definitely think they're going to win at least. nine games. And so just with that offense, which is going to be high power, now again, he has to be healthy. If he gets hurt, obviously, this is kaput. But if he's healthy, Nick, I see

no way, and I'm not even predicting greatness for them as a team because the defense still will have question marks. But if he's healthy, I see no way they're not winning nine games. Yeah, I'll take the under. Under. And it's a little complex why. They're not a

good football team. They have three players we like. Three. Now that Hendrickson is going to be gone. Okay, three and a half. We love their quarterback and their two wide receivers. They have a bad defense. Yeah.

They have a mediocre at best offensive line. I don't think they have a good coaching staff. And we just keep treating the Bengals like there's someone they're not. Here are the teams who have won a playoff game more recently than Cincinnati. That's 50. Here are the teams that have played in a playoff game more recently than Cincinnati. That's 23. The teams that have missed the playoffs for each of the last three years like Cincinnati,

Arizona, the Colts, the Falcons, the Giants of the Jets, the Raiders, the Saints, and the Titans. That's the neighborhood the Bengals have lived in for the last three years. But why have they lived there historically? Don't you think the, and I get it that Burrow was healthy a couple years ago and they didn't make it. I get that. But for the most part, they've lived there because he's been hurt. He might be hurt again. I get that.

Can I make a counter argument to that? Sure. Because I was thinking that someone's going to say that, so I just pulled other stats just defensively. They lost to Detroit with Jake Browning, 3724. Like, they will put up points. The Flacco game they lost to the Jets, 39 to 38. The Bears game with Flacco, they lost 40. 37, 42.

They, it's a defensive problem. They lost to the bills with Burl 39-34. They're losing their best offensive player. Well, they just got to get slightly, but don't give up 37. That's all I'm saying. Give up 31. Exactly right. So they, I just, this has the, again, I'm going to use a second time on the show.

I'm going to reference a stupid meme. Charzard. No, not Charzard. they are the trap house with the Bugatti and the driveway. Ah, the trap house, not a nose. They have this amazing quarterback and wide receivers, but the bones of their team, their coaching staff, their offensive line, and their defense are awful.

And so I just... It's a trap house. I think it's just like... No, I think it's a trap house. It is. Yeah, I think so. I'm pretty confident in it. In fact, I'm pretty confident in it.

Okay. Bon of the Lions, 9 and 8 last year. They are a trendy pick for worst to first. I might try to grab that real estate. Let's look at their non-division of points. They were worst? They were worse. Yes, they finished behind Minnesota.

That's fascinating. I'm fairly certain you're wrong. What was I looking? Third to first. We go with that, but not from third to first. Third to first. I was what? Oh, you're right?

Wow. They tied Minnesota? How about that? Where brew? Just close to go to break. I thought I made an epic mistake. Turns out, I nailed it. I looked it up and I saw it at Lions.

I was like, was I on the wrong year? I'm like, no, they were good. I don't know they tie it with Minnesota. Wow, my bad. Crushed it. Jesus. Call it jet lag for me. It was really a bad year.

I can't believe it. Now they say it like, forgot about the bike. In any event. Those were the teams that are playing. Go ahead. What's their overrunner? 10.5.

This year. With some hesitancy, I will go over. I think, look, I'm just going to take a chance and think, okay, they'll be healthier on defense. Last two years, the defense hadn't been that healthy. I think they'll be healthier. The offense should still be great. Dan Campbell, I definitely still think he's a great coach. and I think, again, kind of like the Ravens,

coming off a bad year in which you missed the playoffs, I think there's going to be a fire lit under them, and I think they're going to have a bounce back seat. Too big of a number. I'll go under. Doesn't mean they don't have a bounce back year. 10 and 7 be a bounce back year. 10 and 7 probably, but it probably makes the playoffs.

I just, I, they have a ton of free agents on defense. They don't have a lot of cap space. I don't love the defensive personnel outside of Hutchinson, and all of a sudden, what had been their strength, their offensive line, no longer feels that one. And so I, and I don't know that they've gotten offensive coordinator, you know, solved post-Ben Johnson. And so I like the slight under in pencil for the, pardon me, for the Detroit Lions.

Really? Okay. You're over? You're right. I'm at a strong over. I just don't. A strong over. So what does that mean?

He didn't even win 13 games. No, just I strongly think 11. They're definitely winning 11. Definitely winning 11. I don't mean 14, but I feel great about 11. I just don't believe in these teams. I'm looking at a bunch of opponents without quarterbacks. I don't know who the quarterback of the Cardinals is.

I don't know the quarterback of the Jets is. Steelers GM, Omar Khan at the Combine. Says, you know what? We'll take Aaron Rogers back. unite him with Mike McCarthy. Take a listen. The door's open to have Aaron back. You know, I've had conversations with him. I spoke to him last week. You know, Mike McCarthy has spoke to him.

And, you know, he knows how we feel about him. And, you know, right now we're proceeding. You know, he's a free agent and he's not on the roster. So, but he knows how we feel about him. Okay. Should the Steelers want him back? No. Oh.

What are they doing? I mean, you might be right. that the goal is 9 and 8, 10 and 7 every year, period. That's it. Look, Aaron Rogers could come back next year and maybe they win nine or 10 games, maybe.

I'm not convinced that they would. We'll see how Mike McCarthy is. But they would have no chance of getting to the Super Bowl next year and then going forward it would make things worse because you probably have a better record with him than without him. maybe you have a bad year.

You try Will Howard. He doesn't have it. And you have a bad season. But guess what? The 2027 draft class, supposed to be full of quarterbacks, maybe you get your future quarterback. What in the world are they trying to do?

And I would think, Nick, with Mike Tomlin walking away, the fans had wanted to get rid of him anyway, a lot of them. Maybe they're ready for a rebuild year. Just one bad year. And then we'll be right. They didn't hire a year.

young coach they want to grow with. They hired Mike McCarthy and I, this is kind of related to the question, but I just want to be on the record on this and related to Steelers quarterback situation. I do not understand why we act like Will Howard is viable. People are

like, well, I know they really like Will Howard and he was a good college, but he's got, he was a sixth round pick and he's not Tom Brady. He's not, he's not, he's not, it is, there is nothing about, nothing about the Steelers, quarterback planned should be predicated on anything do with Will Howard. Shador and Will Howard did great round pitch.

It's just not. I just don't get it. I mean, give me much. Look, maybe he's not the guy. I'm just saying, you're right. We heard some, some, his name. Yes, he's on the roster. I liked him at Ohio State.

Yeah, we heard his name after we heard 187 names taken in the draft. Then we heard his name. So I agree with you, Brew, that I think, you know, taking your medicine for a year in, trading T.J. Watt doing the, you know, having a conversation with Cam Hayward. Like, hey, you're a future Hall of Famer at the end, so we don't want to ask you to play elsewhere

and you're still really good, but what's best for you? Do you want to play on a team that's going to be rebuilding? That's what I would do. If that's not what they want to do, when I read this morning on Twitter that there is some belief that Malik Willis could get

$30 million per year in this market, I'm like, oh, geez, well, if it's that much of a seller's market for quarterbacks, then, and you don't get Malik Willis or you don't want to, I think 30 million from Malik Willis is very, but that's a lot. And it's really tying yourself to him based on an awesome few games. I don't, I understand why Aaron Rogers stopgap. When the, like, here are the other options. Daniel Jones, but we think he's going back with the Colts. Right now, Tua and Kyler are not actually available, and I don't think would be materially different than Aaron Rogers.

And then it's the names that Barnwell listed in his great, you know, manifesto about the offseason, it's Jimmy Garoppolo. It's Kurt Cousins. It's Justin Fields. Justin Fields, it goes again? No, not for the Steelers. He's just listing quarterbacks.

And so I understand why a fallback safety option, And if it's like there's no quarterback in this year's draft that we want to take a first round pick on. And we are trying to be competent next year, why they would do it. And this sounds like silly analysis. I just would not prioritize being competent in 2026. I would prioritize playing my young players, cleaning up my books entirely, trying to stockpile picks to try to build the next great Steelers team rather than keep this streak alive independent of Tomlin, of us never being.

bad. They are not going to do that. They are not. Seeing what Will Howard is. He fits into it. Yeah. Yeah. They are not. Mike McCarthy is going to try to win every game. He's not. That's not the direction they made. And Mike McCarthy

should try to win every game. It's Omar Khan's job to make sure that's very hard to do. You know what? And they should sit down and have a powwow about this. Like, look, Mike, you're not getting fired if we go two and 15. All right. Omar, you're not getting

fired if we go four and 13. Whatever. Let's have the year. youngest team. Let that be our brand. We have the youngest team. The youngest team and the cleanest cap sheet starting in 2027. We're eating our dead money medicine. We're eating any bad contracts we have. Anyone that's over third, anyone that wasn't born in the 2000s, you're on the hot seat, buddy. Like, uh, all right, a fresh edition of tears. Next. Live from New York, the show that got yelled out by a flight attendant for having their shoes and socks off. No, that is not true.

You just told us the story. Nothing about socks. I may have missed something. I thought you just told the story that you were in business class and your dogs were out. No, that is. And you turned to the person across the aisle, he said, I hope you like Georgia football because these dogs are going to be in your face. Does that even sound like a believable story? Does that even sound plausible?

I heard you. I hope you like Georgia football. You know what? And they're like, why? And then you go, rub, because these dogs are out. The audience doesn't know this,

Hubs, I need 15 seconds in the open. On our flight to Daytona, Kevin Wilde was supposed to sit next to me, went behind my back and surreptitiously changed his seat to three rows behind me. And guess what karma did to him? Eight seconds into the flight, the lady next to him spilled wine all over.

And he's standing up, like looking for a towel. You could have been sitting next to me. And then I heard her say, so, live in New York or just miss? I'm like, KW's in for a long three hours. Who has to talk? I would have been covered in Chardonnay. The chat could have sat next to me and my feet. Today, is there a chance?

Drake May takes a step back, a four-minute segment that I've prepared a full 30-minute podcast. Meanwhile, should Mendoza start? Week one in Las Vegas. Whoa, he's got to beat out Gino first, buddy. What's going to keep Gino? I got to take on that. Okay. Okay.

But let me get you caught up to speed on what's going on last night now. Last night on a red eye flight from the West Coast, an elite committee of analysts, savants, and people who aren't fans of my haircut, fought and toiled and burned the midnight jet fuel to concoct the best segment in all the sports. It's an honor and a privilege for the first

version of 2026 NBA tiers. A little bittersweet, however. NFL tiers, it's basically year-round experience. But it certainly starts prior to week one with the full league. NBA tiers were two-thirds of the way done with the season, which means these six teams will never make the tears. Never. These six teams eliminate it. Grand opening, grand closing for the Kings, Pacers, Nets, Wizards, Pelicans, and Jazz.

I can't argue any of those. And I, by the way, because Rick Carlisle came out and said the NBA is really trying to shake down the Pacers about the tanking. The Pacers are not the tanking problem. Yeah, I wouldn't work. The Pacers have tried to be competitive year after year after year. Their best player pops his Achilles in game seven of the finals, taking a year off. Well, guess what? What?

There's another team in the East whose best player pop their Achilles, and they're doing just fine. But they have a way better infrastructure. And they're a better team. I was just saying, try to do it. It's not just like, well, it looks like we're headed to the lottery. Well, they're trying. The Pacers. Are they?

I mean, a little bit. See, Occam's trying. All right. Time for the tears. Not eliminated, but unwatchable. The bucks without Janus are unwatchable flatly. The bulls are like, hey, you guys didn't tell us we were going to have to start tanking as early as you guys are. They're trying to catch up.

Right. They're not going to get there. And the Grizzlies are just kind of a sad. They're like a dead mold. It's like, you know what? This used to be, I have memories here. Radio Shack, that was good. And now the ticket prices?

Free, I would imagine. Dollar and a half? You have like four bucks. It's not good. It's terrible. Next line. It's terrible. Like many bad marriages in it for the kids.

We're here for Cooper Flagg, Brandon Miller and Khan Knieppel for the. the Hornets. I don't want to leave Brandon Miller out. He's been excellent. And, uh, and the Hornets are frisky-ish. The Mavs are not. But if you're a fan of those teams, it's not about this year at all. It's about watching your young star or young stars grow up and evolve. Maybe something in 2027. Interesting. The Blazers. Yeah. Building around Denny. Scoot. Okay, Scoot.

It was a bad call, I'm gonna let it go. Listen, you miss 100 of the shots you don't take. Shaden Sharp, like, they're trying to build something in Portland, credit to them. The Hawks, I, you have Jalen Johnson, all of a sudden unshackled Jonathan Kaminga. I think last night was probably an aberration, but we'll see. But most importantly, maybe the number one pick. Because remember, they have New Orleans pick. And New Orleans one of them.

the eliminated teams. And even it's not number one, so it could be DeBantz, it could be Peterson, could be Wilds guy, Camboozer, whomever. And for Miami, all gonna be excellent. Correct. Excellent. I think you have three guys that are the caliber of a typical number one pick.

Not Cooper Flagg, but a typical number one pick. And Miami, I think is gonna take one more shot at Yannis in the off season and see all that goes. Hardest of ceilings, Suns, Raptors, Warriors, Magic. I would be stunned, stunned if any of these teams win a round. And I am going to go ahead and say it is impossible for any of these teams to win two rounds. And so the Warriors would have been different, obviously, if Jimmy didn't get hurt.

The Magic are very disappointed that this is where they found themselves. Obviously, a great win for them last night. But when you trade five firsts or four first for Bain, it's not because you think you're going to be one and done the playoffs. Again, the Raptor is kind of a positive season. The sun's a positive season, but the Booker injury and Dylan Brooks breaking his hand. It's going to put him in guaranteed in the play in. And then you're playing OK, see in round one, or you're playing the Spurs. It's a disaster.

On the right night, catch any of these teams on the right night? And you're like, ooh, if Luke is cooking, LeBron is doing, you know, kind of Swiss Army knife stuff, and Austin Reeves is giving you 30, It's like, man, they'd be a beast to deal with over two weeks. But on the wrong night, it's like, oh, but they don't defend anyone other guys don't fit together. Sixers similar story, not they don't fit together. Maxie's been first team all NBA-ish caliber this year.

Embedd, when he's been playing the last couple months, has been excellent. Edgecombe's a great rookie, but you just don't feel like it's sturdy. And I think the Timberwolves are a little disappointing this year after back-to-back conference finals. But Ant isn't. Ant has been just about as good as anybody in the league this season on both ends of the court, but it doesn't feel like they do that on a night-to-night basis as much as they need to. Very good teams yet disappointed.

All four of these teams are very good. And I'll get to the Clippers in a second. But I think underachieving their preseason expectations. The Cavs, you know, last year, they were the best team in the East until they needed to be. They fell apart. They thought, all right, no Pacers, no Tatum. It would be us. They haven't been in that all year.

The Knicks feel like, okay, this is our moment for the same reasons. They have been inconsistent all year. The Rockets didn't go all in, but went, you know, semi-all-in getting Durant, and they don't seem to be in a markedly better position than they. Well, last year they were the two seed. Yeah, they are. They're not in a better position. And the Clippers, listen, they haven't been at 500 since they were three and three.

However, they are 21 and 9 since starting 6 and 21. So what's disappointing is that they dug themselves such a massive hole. And I think because of that, they traded hardened. They moved on. But maybe they feel like the Garland-Kauai combo in Garland's back is going to work. Kwai's been unbelievable. Brew will hate this one. Godzilla versus Mothra.

Nuggets and Spurs. Are you familiar with that, KW? I'm not familiar with Godzilla. I'm not totally familiar with Mothra. Is that the big moth? Great context clues. Hubbs the image. This is a Yokic Wimbi playoff series.

Yokich Godzilla, the giant moth is wimby. Yeah, go ahead. Can I just take a second here? I don't even know. Maybe we go to break or something. No, go ahead. What was going on while we were? were gone. What do you mean? You're talking about Godzilla, you're talking about Pokemon,

he's talking about Charzard. You just feel like you got into like some cartoons or something? I've read our, you know, when I was meeting with the executives that I told you about, while you guys were on the beach, I got some demographic data about the show, and we need to skew a little younger. So I'm trying to, yeah. Yeah, so Gianna has given me some words to use on the show. I haven't really. Yeah, because you're talking about other memes. You keep on bringing up means. Gianna says that's why you talk about guys maugging more. But I don't know what it means. That's why you've been on fleak.

No. Brue, that's younger words. No, that's, you've been on fleets. No, I think that was five or six years ago. No, I think longer. I think longer. Is it back?

Yeah. Gianna says yes. Go back to the tears, please. Point is this. I would, I don't know if the bracket is, it's going to allow it. But man, I'd love to see Yokic versus Wimby for two weeks in round two.

That would be awesome. That would be so great if we can get that as a two, three matchup. Now, Denver, after starting 20 and six, is 16 and 16 in their last 32. Yeah, the injuries. But that would, it would be such an interesting contrast and styles between those two guys. I just really want to see it.

I like that. Every quarter century, the Detroit Pistons. The Detroit Pistons in the early 1960s, bro, made the playoffs, I think, six years in a row and made a conference finals. The Detroit Pistons then, quarter century later in the late 1980s, made three straight NBA finals. The Detroit Pistons then, a quarter century later,

in the early aughts, made six straight conference finals, won a ring and made another finals. It's been about 25 years since then, and they are the number one seed in the east, and they check all the boxes except for preseason belief. You know what I mean? They have a legitimate MVP candidate. They play good defense. They're well coached.

They're deep, all those things, but they weren't one of the top five preseason picks. Yet I don't have them atop the east in the tiers because of the looming threat that is Boston. This is fascinating. I have been so blown away by the job Joe Mozilla, Jalen Brown, and the entire Boston supporting cast has done. Not holding, just holding down the fort, but playing great basketball, winning basketball, analytically brilliant basketball,

even if stylistically you don't love it, while Tatum's not playing. I think it's very very, very on the board that Tatum is back in the next few weeks. And if that's the case, I don't think they need all-MBA first team Jason Tatum to be a championship contender. They just need Jason Tatum to be 70% of Jason Tatum because of where they are right now. But they're still not the favorites.

That, of course, is OKC with this one question, Brew. Are they bored or are they flawed? because after the 24 and 1 start, they're good, but not unbelievable, 21 and 13. In the last 17, they're 10 and 7. Now, Shea's been out for a piece of. They've been winning without She. Right.

It's not like a lot of those losses came with Shea. Is this the lethargy of a long season as a defending champ? Once it was clear they weren't going to break the Warriors record. It's like, who cares? I don't know if I can chalk it up to that because they have not locked up the one season. And if they were to make the finals, they're basically tied with Detroit for home court in the finals that were the matchup. So these games do matter. They're the best team, but they don't seem as invincible as they did two months ago.

That's the first edition of tears. I like that. Oh, no. How many bonus takes do you have? About three. All right. Let's hear our whole. Quickly.

Put it back up. A couple quick ones. Look, I will, I agree Boston with Tatum. If you're baking in Tatum to this, then they got a good shot. My pick is Detroit in the East. Wow. But if Tatum comes back, Boston can win the East. Yeah.

Is Detroit or Boston? All right. Second take, bonus take, the Timberwolves, I want higher. Like, I think they're very dangerous. They're two and one against OKC and two in one against San Antonio. So they, I get it that it's been a bit of a disappointing year. But I think they're very capable to turn it up in the playoffs, and I think they're dangerous. So I would raise them higher.

But my main take is I got to put Godzilla versus Mothra on the second line, right below the thunder. So you think the three best teams are in the West? Yes, yes. I do. Look, the East is the JV. San Antonio just went into Detroit's house, took their best. punch and I mean that literally. Like Detroit really got physical with them to their credit.

I think Detroit's best punch is a literal Isaiah. Well, yeah, Isaiah wasn't missing. But they took that physical play and beat them by double digits in Detroit. They've beaten Boston. They are, the spurs are seven and one against the, what is that? Top five teams on your tears. They're four and one, four and one against OKC. beat one and oh against Boston,

one and oh against Detroit, one and oh against Denver. And I'm more so obviously focused on the Spurs. I think they're Denver healthy. That'd be, as you said, a great series. But I just think the Spurs, we talked about it yesterday, they have it all. There's nothing other than their youth.

Yes. There's really nothing you would point to and say they lack this. Detroit lacks shooting. You know, obviously Boston isn't fully whole yet. Even OKC has injury issues. They have nothing going on in San Antonio that is a negative except being so young and inexperienced. So I will move the Spurs particularly up to second, and you can throw Denver up there with them.

I think that's a very fair critique. I'm not sure I agree with you that the East is the JV, if we're talking about the best. Yeah, like the top four or five teams in each conference. I think, you know, if we did a draft of them, so to speak, that there would be more back and forth. Certainly the bottom of the east and the west is better. But I think at the top, I just, I think, and I do not believe we are going to get this player this year.

But if Jason Tatum came back and was 100%, I think that's the best team. I think, I mean, this is just fantastic. I just feel like I've done a great job. I feel like I'm like a coach a little bit. You think your my... Like, I'm, like, kind of, like, proud of you right now? Is that fair? So you're all in on the Celtics?

Well, it's just like New England in general, and I feel like you were, like, kind of reviled a little bit. I think I probably am still reviled. Still reviled. But you, but I also did it with Denver, and I'm like, let me see if I can pull another rabbit out of my hat. Maybe I can get them to get onto the Celtics. What helped me with the Celtics is you haven't talked about him in a year. Well, goodness. Yeah.

I think the Celtics are underrated by the world, but properly rated here. Wow. I think you did a great job. This is with you're including Jason Taylor. So I had two graphics and I just switched the order because I want to show the home road splits on just how like wildly effective they've been in both spots. So they're nine and one in their last 10.

They just came off this road. That's remarkable. Everything. Right. So they just are playing a really, I mean, I guess this is the exact same team. Yeah. And I don't look, Tatum's gone.

They're the. exactly they seem like a very similar team. Jalen Brown was gone last night. They seem like the same team. I think they're five to one without a strong yeah and they win those games pretty easily. So here's the because they trounce the suns last night and the sons didn't put up much of a fight offensive. Suns also without their two leading. Yes. So that vaulted them to number one in the scoring defense. They've got the best defense scoring wise in the league. So this is how good their defense has been last few years. And the reason why I wanted this. Second is this.

When we talk about Tatum coming back, obviously a plus. But I think when you think about Jason Tatum coming back, at least me, I see him shooting threes and getting to the rack and making those little finger rolls. I don't see him slap in the floor playing defense with an Achilles that's recovering. Well, I mean, even coming off Achilles is better defender than Peyton Richard. He's better. He's not, like, he's going to be a better defender than the guy whose minutes he's taking.

Fully healthy Jason Tames, an excellent defender. Even post-A-Killies, I think he's not a better defender than post-A-Killies in recovery. He's not a better defender than Jalen Brown and Derek White. But those guys, he's not taking minutes from those guys. You know what I mean? Those guys are going to be playing the same. That's what I'm worried about.

I'm worried about defense. So you're not worried at all about fit or taking some guys? No, I think the system just works perfectly. I think they're a real team that really likes each other. But I am a little bit nervous. Like, if it's not broke, don't fix it. And I would rather have Tatum.

Well, I think that's part of what they'll do. Like, if you can't play defense, the way we want you to play defense, let's just wait. It doesn't hurt the Celtics at all to wait until next season. But unless it costs them a chance to win the title. But that hurts you want, you don't want, just to follow up your point, you don't want Jason Tatum out there not able to really get after defensive. Oh, I agree.

But I don't think he would, I don't think he would come back if he felt like, athletically, he is not recovered. I think there'll be rust. There will be, you know, getting your wind, those things. But I think he'll only come back if athletically is recovered. And to be clear, me coming around, if you will, on Boston, that's nothing new. with you or your coaching or anything. And be honest, watch this.

It has to do with, while you're the mayor of fairer, I'm trying to do something this festival season. I'm trying to fare max. Fair maxing? Yeah, fair maxing. What's fair maxing? Well, it just, it's a thing the young people do. They just put maxing on the back of things.

Like fitness maxing or style maxing. I'm trying to fare max. Yeah, I saw something max. Exactly. Exactly. It's big amongst the young people. Threat, troll, No, don't do that proof.

Don't troll max. No, there's some max. It's a lot of maxing. Yeah. There is. Yeah. Also clavicles are big. I don't get it.

Clavicles? They're big. I'll tell you what. Slang in what it used to be. The yon told me. Clavicle. We're trying to get the young people. And they hit themselves in the face with hammers.

Oh, I saw that. Yeah. They do. They punched themselves. Yeah. Yeah. Fastest racing on Earth returns to Fox. Alex Polo.

Nick's guy, reigning champion of Indie. and the whole thing. Joseph Nugard, looking to bounce back a little bit. We got to win last year. Potta Award, friend of the show came on. Lead the way as the 2026 Indy car season kicks off in St. Petersburg Sunday at noon Eastern, live on Fox.

Bruze Guy, Alex, Bruce Guy Padua Award. Patriots GM, Elliot Wolf had a hot take at the Combine. He was happy going to the Super Bowl and having his sophomore QB was a vote away from winning MVP. Did a great job and made news, made headlines. Take a listen. I mean, satisfied is a tremendous understatement. Drake made a ton of progress in a lot of areas, you know,

not only at the start of the season, but throughout the season. And, you know, I think people forget that he's 23 years old. And, you know, there's been a lot on his shoulders. And there will continue to be with the expectation that it has been a quarterback for the New England Patriots. But I'm just really excited about him, his toughness, his competitiveness. He's always the same guy. And, you know, there's obviously areas on the field that he's going to improve and he's going to work with Coach McDaniels and Coach Grant and get those things taken care of.

Full story. When this question was in the dock, I wrote, I don't think anyone agrees with this. We should probably do Sean Payton giving up play calling or something. Yeah, you want to do a Davis-Web story is what you want to do instead of talking about your quarter. Is Drake taking a step forward or back in year three? Well, look, a few years ago, I nailed this situation. When Brock Purdy coming off the Super Bowl appearance,

left the field with the lead, fourth in MVP voting. You did not. Crazy pass rating. I say he will be a better quarterback next year, but his stats, he won't be fourth top five MVP. He fell off a little more than I expected.

But I think he's a better quarterback. I agree. I'm sure Brock would say, and Kyle Shanan would. say he's a better quarterback today. I don't know that he would say those things. This is going to be the case with Drake. He's not going to be second in MVP, I don't think.

All right. His numbers, will he have a 113 pass or rating? Probably not. And I don't think they're going to win as many games. Obviously, the schedule's tougher. But he is going to learn from these playoffs that you've been rightly criticizing him for. I think he's going to learn from that, the struggles in the playoffs and the Super Bowl. be better with it.

A second year with Josh McDaniels. The receiving court, I would expect to get bolstered. So I just think everything around him is going to be better. Vrable obviously is a good coach. And Drake will be a better quarterback next year. Perfect take. So listen. Now, numbers might not be.

The numbers, he was second and repeat. It's a take that's impossible to be wrong on. Because if what we're saying is he could have worse numbers, look worse. the team could be worse. Well, look worse. I test wise to look better. Purdy looked worse.

There's a nine year three. Year three, yeah. This year you could argue, but yeah. Right, year three. Right. He looked worse, numbers were worse, team was worse, and we're still saying he's better because he's more experienced,

then there's no way for it to be wrong. But since you brought up Purdy, and I knew you would, just a reminder for the audience, Purdy's year two versus Drake's year two. It very similar. Drake had the better record. Purdy had, I mean, their numbers are almost, it's 113 rating versus 113 and

half. 33 to 13 versus 35 to 11. You know, Drake has him in completion percentage. Pertie has him in yards per attempt. Yards per game are almost, you know, it's within 10. And then a reminder of what year three, four Brock looked like. Now, I'm not anticipating this for Drake, but it was a place. precipitous and massive decline across the board. And one way, KW, that the NFL is very different than the NBA,

is player progression is very typically nonlinear. Like NBA guys, they usually do just get better. Their numbers get better. They are more productive every year. In the NFL, it's a lot of fits and stops on an upward trajectory. And so I think across the board, he will take a step back next year. I think he will not look his eye popping on the deep passes like he did early. I think his numbers will take a huge hit.

I think the team's record will take a huge hit. And I think there will be some particularly early in the season real scar tissue from the playoff run and Super Bowl and what that did to at least his early season confidence. It doesn't mean he's not going to continue on. You think he's going to have less confidence going to the Super Bowl than if he had lost against Justin Herbert? No, not that if he had lost in round one. No, I don't think that.

But I do think that he went the entirety of year two leading into the playoffs. You could argue without really having a bad game after week one. Like he had gone 16 weeks in a row without a bad game. Yeah, even his bad games. And then certainly never had back-to-back bad games. And then probably feels like he had four consecutive substandard games. So you're off the top five quarterback right now. Right, correct.

Yes, I am. I am. Because for a while, you were going into. Okay, because that doesn't sound like a top five. No, no, it doesn't. I didn't. When I was saying he was going to be a top five quarterback, what I did not anticipate was the most fumbles in a playoffs in league,

history, one of the worst completion percentages in a playoffs in league history, and what I thought was four straight bad games. Okay. And so that's... We can agree to disagree about four straight bad games, considering you threw three touchdowns against the Texans, which is more than, I think, Josh Allen and Patrick Wombs, and maybe somebody else combined another great quarter. Certainly somebody else.

Yeah, but go ahead. Throw it in the playoffs. Yeah, find somebody. But you wouldn't, if you could get into a time machine, week 15, you wouldn't say, you know what, I'd rather have the Drake from last year than this year. No. Okay. That's what I...

But he is... I think he's going to be better. So you think, yeah, you think it'll be a better quarter. No, I thought you meant year two versus year one. No, your three versus year two. Oh, I... I know it's weird to talk time machines. No, no, no.

I don't think he will be better next year than he was this year. I don't know how it's to say. I think he will definitely be better. Definitely be better. There's four reasons guys fall off, and you guys can add them. I'm just making this up. Injury, obviously. Some sort of mental block, which maybe he has some scar tissue.

Personnel changes, your O-line or your, you know, receivers. Or, sorry. And then I say organizational changes. You lose your OEC, you lose your coach. Outside of that, I think he's going to be healthier. He had a little bummed shoulder. Why, though? Because he had a bummed shoulder in the Super Bowl,

and then he's not going to have a bum shoulder week one. I mean, maybe he gets hurt in week 10. I don't know. Okay, go ahead. I assume he's going to be healthier. Sorry. We didn't have any changeover at any of the major positions. I assume actually we're going to get better for personnel, and mentally I think it'll be fine. Here's the issue where I was wrong with Drake May, because he's very young, right?

He's actually, Cam Ward turns 24 in May, Drake May turns 24 in August. If you think Cam Ward's going to be better, you think Caleb's going to be better, I think you should think Drake May is going to be better. But I got a little bit over my skis. and I betrayed one of my own values. And Brew, I think you'll like this especially. I do like experience. I like an old doctor.

An old pilot, yeah. An old pilot. Not too old on the pilots, but I like the old doctor, Moonlight Graham style if they fall dead of natural causes while they're checking you out. I'm like, I'm okay with that. I don't like the young doctor come in. I'm like, are you assisting someone?

I like the old doctor. So I got over my skis when I was like, hey, Seattle, you are facing a more dynamic, more accurate version of Matthew Stafford. I was wrong about that. You think? Drake May has played a total of 33 games. Matthew Stafford has played a total of 256 games. I may have.

I almost want to say I have. underestimated the 220 extra games that Matthew Stafford had played when it comes to looking at defense. But I assume that I think 12% of his games have been playoff games. He's still a pretty raw product and that he will immediately be better. So here's why, here's where I just disagree. And again, will he know if there was a 100 question test on quarterbacking, would he get a better grade, you know, week one of this year or in the training camp this year than he did last year? Yes, I think he'll know more.

Do I think he will process faster than he did? Yes, I think that is all still developing. But I don't, at some point, sports are a result business. And if I think across the board by the objective measures, he will be worse, I think that would be weird to call it a step forward. And I disagree with your list of the reasons people, the full list. So the first one you said was, it's injured. right now he plays a style that is prone to getting banged up.

And we saw that the tax on his deep, you know, hunting the deep shots, what that can be. So that's the first thing. What was the second one you said? I did organizational changes coaches. So, right, that's obviously going to be fine. Another reason guys take a step back is either teams have figured out, oh, it took a good defense to go up against the Drake made Josh McDaniels combo to solve it for us, but some of those

defenses put some stuff on film that the teams that were playing the regular season did not. And the same way when Vic Fangio four years ago, five years ago was like, hey, against Mahomes, what if we just play, you know, cover two, Shell, and make them solve it? So I think that is a piece of it. That's a little bit of the chess match I buy that.

And I also think the other thing that can be is it's just, oh, man, we have so many more good teams that we have to go through. And what we have not seen is Drake May thrive. I'm not saying he's played poorly in every spot, thrive against the best teams. And so given the fact that your schedule appears to be laden with the best teams, that adds to my concern. I buy all of that. I want you to, since we're trying to get younger now, keep the same. the same energy when I have to hear a chorus of how for

I don't know why Caleb will just automatically be better because I don't think Caleb was that good last year. That's the difference. So then Drake May has to wear a Drake May tax for going to the Super Bowl? No, but the question, no, if the question were, who do you think is going to be better next year

Caleb or Drake, that is very different than Caleb could take a step forward, Drake could take a step back and Drake still be ahead of him. Like so these are different things. I feel like I've seen a lot of like Caleb is going to be better. No, I'm not, I'm not, I am not ready to say Caleb's better than Drake May.

I haven't, you haven't heard me say that since he was playing at USC. But what I am, I do expect Caleb to take a step forward because I don't think, I think Caleb was intermittently spectacular and largely inconsistent last year. Drake was, Drake was the paragon of consistency. And so. I might be fighting a battle against not people that aren't on this show when I hear Caleb is going to be better on this, this, and this, and he'll be better than Drake May. I'm like, well, why doesn't the same thing apply to Drake May? No, I think that's a fair critique to have.

But if Drake May was an A student last year and Caleb was a C plus student, and we're going into next year and it's like, hey, I think Drake's going to be not quite as good and Caleb's going to be a lot better, that could be an A minus to a B plus in Drake's favor. We've landed on an okay place, I guess. Raiders have the first pick. Oh, this is why Hobbs in my ear. He wants to do some Raiders talk. Raiders have the first pick and put out the, hey, we're always listening to offers. We didn't do that story, though. They're taking Mendoza in, their conversation moved to.

If he starts week one, should he start week one? Take a listen to the Vegas GM. I think you want to have as much pressure, limit the amount of pressure you have on that guy from the start. Now, you know, if you have a young quarterback, I'm not necessarily in, you know, favor of running him out there right away either. So, you know, another quality player that can play the quarterback position if you have a young quarterback. And obviously a great offensive line, a run game, all the things that can, like, limit his chances to have you really get killed.

Eke. Brooke, you want to start him, week one? Look, I like his attitude. We're not automatically starting him just because he's the number one pick. and presumably our franchise guy going forward. We've seen guys develop at different rates. Now, he does have some traits that make me think he might step right in. He's, you know, three years of college experience.

Playing at Indiana, you didn't, week in, week out, you didn't always have the superior talent around you, right? A lot of times it was inferior, your receivers, your running backs, your line, and stuff like that. So that's good. And obviously, he's a very smart player, has enough athletic. athleticism, processes quickly. So he might be ready to step right in and be effective. But I like the attitude of I'm not forcing him in there.

Because Sam Darnold's in extreme matter, but there are a lot of other players. Drake May didn't start right away, all right for Jacoby Brissette. So Mahomes obviously didn't start right away. I'm sure both of them could have, but they took their time with them and were patient with them. And he's going to right now what was a bad team last year. year. So maybe it's best. Now, I'm not against him going out there and struggling. I'm just saying if he's not checking all the boxes that make you feel like he's ready in training camp, throw Gino out there. Well, that's, let Gino. And if Gino's bad again, then game, week seven or six

or whatever, you put Fernando in and you go from there. Or maybe it's longer. Maybe he sits a whole year. I'm not against that. So I totally agree with you. And I also think, Some of it. It's not entirely about how ready he is. It's also about the, I was obviously dead wrong about the Raiders last year. And Gino was not good. But also that offensive line was arguably the worst in football. That to me, like they, some of it was Gino was bad. A lot of it was Gino's bad. But a fair amount of it was the offensive line. I still think Ginty is going to be excellent. We'll see. I think he was drawing very thin against with that O line. If the Raiders are not, they're spending number one pick on quarterback. The excellent offensive linemen very rarely come available via free agency. Free agency, pardon me, they have a lot of work to do there. So I'm not opposed at all to even if Fernando is like, man, I think he is ready, saying, hey, let's give this offensive line some time to gel and mesh and figure that out,

which is why if I'm the Raiders, I do not cut Gino. I say, and Gino has, I think, the exact right disposition to help a young quarterback. And so I think Gino, he has a good contract with them. I think he would be a good soldier in that regard. I don't know if Gino thinks he's past his prime. I don't think so. He thinks that either, but I think he understands if you take a kid number one overall, that my time here is ending.

Huge top 10 showdown on college. Tuesday, Friday. Number three, Michigan, against number 10 team, the Aligni, who don't forget, I've got the Aligni going to the Elite 8. Oh, really? Yes. Johnny have that down. Yeah, you got to start John.

I'm losing track. Yeah. I think you had six teams in the final 14. No, 11 elite eight. Once March hits, I'm going to lock in. I'm like the guy who walks in. Right. March is, is creeping up.

A little playoff preview last night in Cleveland, at least we thought it could be, but it wasn't because the Knicks offense didn't show up and Hardin was pretty good. News that he did break his right thumb during the game, but what's the he might miss tonight, but he's going to keep playing according to Shams. It may be where a splint. He's left-handed and not going to have surgery. Okay, good. As for the Knicks offense in the third quarter, Ramsey, our resident Knicks fan,

I'm surprised he showed up for work. Thurt, 11 points, 3 for 24, 1 for 12 from 3. We're not even good at free throw line, four for eight. It looked like they didn't show up for work. Not great. That's good. Panic time? Yes.

Yes. Sorry, Ramsey. There's a lot of panic time in the NBA for you. This is real panic time because unlike the Lakers. The Knicks have a shot. They look, entering the season, they were the clear, clear favorite in the east. Indiana obviously is hurt with Halliburton out. Boston with Tatum out.

Cleveland's had their own playoff issues, even worse than the Knicks. They lost Indiana in the second round last year. And now Detroit was young and you beat them. Now I got Detroit ahead of them, six straight wins in the regular season against the Knicks for the Pistons. I got Boston, especially with Tatum ahead of them. And I get it. They beat Boston last year, all right, with Tatum. But I think Boston looks better than them.

and then Cleveland, who knows with Hardin and how he'll play. But I don't think they're coming out of the East. I'm not totally 100% writing them off. But, and here, look, last night, Nick, how do you not show up for that game? Carl Anthony Towns took five shots. So that's the part I want to ask you about. Look, I think part of that is on him. he's got to be more aggressive

and give me some if they're not getting the ball to you go get some offensive rebounds he had one you're 6-11 get more than one offensive rebound and create your own offense but also I put some of it on Mike Brown and Jalen Brunson

you are the point guard a point guard or head coach should say let's get our guy something let's get him some plays to get him going let's get going he was five for five so he had it going That's what I Get him to rock.

And four of those shots, Nick, were in the first quarter. So from the last three quarters, he took one shot. What is your point guard and your head coach thinking in a game against a rival when you're not getting

your second best player to ball? But that is also, you're right, that it's a group failure in that regard. But Carl Anthony Towns was the number one pick of the draft once upon a time. He is a multiple time.

He might be a Hall of Fame. Really? I mean, his. his resume again. The NBA Hall of Fame is. Possibly. Or the Basketball Hall of Fame. So he is a multi-

I think it's fair to say perennial all-star player and an all-MBA guy. If you haven't missed a shot in the game and your team is going through that, because it wasn't a blowout at halftime. They were down five at half.

Your team is going through that type of cold spell in the third quarter, you must demand the basketball. Like that is where your salary, your draft slot, your pedigree matters because it's easier for if Mitchell Robinson's 5 for 5,

he can't be like, get me the 5. It's a different situation. And so that is where Kat's disposition can work against the Knicks and work against him. I'm not as down on the Knicks as Brew is. If Tatum doesn't come back,

I might pick the Knicks to, Get to the finals. If you guys, that side of the table is more as higher on due dates than I am, but it does feel like they're due to break through at some point. They definitely do. But this was a grizzly lost KW that didn't have to be this grizzly. Because, again, their defense was fine. Like 109 to the Cavs and modern NBA is fine.

I think they held them to 42%. But it is, it's unacceptable for a top two player on your team to, not miss a shot in a game and not take a half dozen. No question. Quickly, Brew. The Cavs have won 15 of their last 18. There are two losses to OKC, one to Phoenix. Or do you believe a little bit more in the calves after last night?

I got one question for the calves. Is Hardin going to be hardening in the playoffs? If you could tell me yes, then I'm like, yeah, I believe I think they got a shot. Okay, I thought that was a insult. No, is he going to be? Is he going to be the regular season, James Hart? But the problem is that's what it depends on him. And that team has been soft in the playoffs, too.

That's what I was going to say. It's not just him. And Donovan Mitchell came into the league. Donovan Mitchell came into the league as an awesome playoff guy in Utah. He's still like, I think, top five all time in playoff 50 point games, stuff like that. But they have not been a good playoff team. Right.