Football Daily - Man City Q&A with Kieran Maguire & Dale Johnson

Episode Date: September 30, 2026

Kelly Somers is joined by football finance expert Kieran Maguire and BBC Football Issues Correspondent Dale Johnson as they answer listener questions following the news that the Premier League confirmed Manchester City were found guilty of all charges related to breaches of Premier League financial rules between 2009-10 and 2017-18.TIMECODES: 3’05 - Could Man City have to repay any prize money? 6’50 - Could HMRC investigate City for fraud or illegality? 7’53 - How would a points deduction work? 9’30 - Is it as simple as just relegating them to League Two? 10’05 - Could Man City Women’s be affected? 10’35 - How long would they be given to comply with EFL financial rules? 11’58 - If relegated to the Championship, could they loan players out for a season? 13’29 - Could there be a resolution before the end of this season? 14’45 - How could Man City overturn the charges? 17’10 - If City were fined, where would the money go? 17’56 - How many clubs will seek compensation? 19’30 - What is the most likely punishment?

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. It's late 2007 and while attending a Christmas party, Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg meets a woman who would change the course of his company forever. She joined Facebook as chief of operations in 2008 and has been credited for making the company profitable. And herself enormously rich. On Good Bad Billionaire, we're exploring the life and fortune of billionaire tech leader Cheryl Sandberg. Listen on BBC.com, the BBC app or wherever you get your podcast. This is the Football Daily podcast with Kelly Summers. Football finance expert and host of the Price of Football podcast,

Kira McGuire, is with us, as is BBC Sports Issues correspondent, Dale Johnson. There's just so much to get into. But Dale, before we go any further, we had that explosive statement from the Premier League. We then had a statement from Manchester City for listeners who perhaps haven't been filled in on what's been going on. Just give us the lowdown. Yeah, so it was a pretty crazy few hours, really. where we weren't really expecting to get this full judgment quite yet, but it has finally dropped.

And basically it says that Manchester City arranged sham contracts, which misrepresented the true agreement and artificially inflated the club's revenues. And it did this by basically taking what are essentially pretty small total sponsorship revenues of $119 million, I think it was. And adding, on top of that, through the club's owners, 830 million. And that's quite a remarkable amount of money. And then it's the case of the fact that they filed misleading accounts based upon that. And then there were significantly a breach of the financial fair play rules. And they committed multiple breaches of its duties to cooperate with the Premier League.

It's a really extensive 40-page document, which is damning for Manchester City, which of course they currently deny and will appeal against. But as it stands right now, they are guilty of all these charges. Yeah, it's been quite the few hours. We knew that something like this was probably coming, but Paul, I guess we just didn't exactly expect it to be quite as explosive from the Premier League. Paul Robinson, sorry, I should say. Well, they've both come out swinging, haven't they?

I mean, they've both got their big arsenal, their big weapons out straight away. Manchester City denying it strongly and doubling down on that and doubling down on it again today with the statement. And then the Premier League released that statement. I mean, it's very damning if you read that. but then Manchester City is still absolutely adamant that they're sticking to what they've said I mean this is not going to go away this is something that's going to rumble on for a long time

and you know we've talked about it to the endth degree already but there's going to be so many twists and turns I asked Kieran before the game started you know what was the process and what were the stages of this Kieran and Dale and it just doesn't seem straightforward I mean Manchester City

have already appealed the decision before they know what the sanctions are So this is going to to and throw, to and fro, but to have the Premier League words such a strong statement, I mean,

it doesn't look good for Manchester City at the moment, but they're still sticking to their statements. Carol, as I said, we are asking for your questions. We've already had quite a few in. A lot of them do seem to be concerning what happens next,

because there's a lot of uncertainty, as we've already said, as to how long this process is going to take when the appeal is going to happen. The Premier League, of course, have said that they want to get this wrapped up as quickly as they possibly can. but let's rattle through some of your questions then.

Gary in Stoke says, is there any chance that Manchester City would be made to repay any prize money to the Premier League? Kieran, I'm wondering if you would be able to shed any light on that. I don't think so because that money's already been allocated, but effectively the fine could be organised in such a way as to say that Manchester City received more than they would have anticipated, had they not have done these things with the account,

and therefore that will be reflected as part of the overall settlement and therefore that the costs involved could be very high. I've done my calculations prior to the acquisition by Abu Dhabi. Manchester City's average position in the Premier League was 14th after the acquisition. It was second. So that works out as 12 places per season and you get £3 million per place. So you multiply 12 times three times nine. and that's what, 324 million pounds to add into the potential equation if that question's valid.

Can I just ask you as, I mean, might sound like a really simple question, but how have the Premier League proved this? Is this through leaked documents? How have they got the evidence and such damning evidence that they're adamant? Who's found this out and how has this all come about? Well, this has all come about as a result of the hack into the Manchester City email system and that resulted in the data being given to football leagues and Der Spiegel. And when that was published, that's when that provoked the UEFA investigation,

which ultimately failed on sort of a technicality because it was a statute of limitations. And they always mentioning this earlier. But the Premier League doesn't have a statute of limitations clause embedded into its constitution. So that's allowed the Premier League to look at all. of this information, regardless of how it was sourced. And the proof that they've got, that they're saying that they've got proof of these, the allegations that they've got proof and that they've been charged. Obviously, you know, found Manchester City guilty.

What level of proof have they got and how have they got this proof? Well, they will have looked at all the documentation. They would have looked at the money which has come in and out of the bank accounts. It has to be said that the auditors will have seen that information as well. So auditors would normally pick up on errors, but in order that sometimes it is possible if there's collusion and there's fraud to put a series of documents together which can be scrutinized, can be affected to be ticked off by the auditors

and on that basis that's why the accounts have been proved approved by them. What the Premier League must have done is have a weight of evidence and it looks like the emails can be very, very damning. I don't know whether you've seen any of them historically, but if you read them and they are true, it certainly does not reflect well on the people who wrote them. And I guess it's that evidence, along with the expert witnesses, which will have been submitted

or working on behalf of the Premier League, which will have persuaded the Commission that the weight of evidence is overwhelmingly in favour of the Premier League's position. We will get a much more detailed document eventually to set out exactly what's happened and why the ruling's been made. At the moment, it's just really a summary document, which is normally 40 pages long, but such is a case. in this, it has to be. But when that actual document comes out, the appendix seats which are mentioned in this, but you can't see all the names that are redacted, which we hopefully will get to see in the end, they are appearing at the moment and hopefully we'll get a much clearer

picture of how the ruling was reached when we get to that point. So many questions coming in. Let's move on to another one. This one's coming for Kieran from Andrew in Manchester. Do you think there's any chance that HMRC will be interested in investigating any fraud or illegality from City? I think it's unlikely, and the reason why I say that, Kelly, is that in theory, there could have been an underpayment of P.A.Y.E and national insurance, as far as some of these parallel contracts are concerned. But at the same time, had Manchester City not been cheating the system, they wouldn't be in a position to pay the actual high wages that they were able

to pay, which were ultimately on the basis of the... of the sponsorship money, which was coming from the owner instead of the sponsors themselves. So I think HMRC will consider it, but there's not a lot for them to go on. There's certainly no corporation tax to recover because football clubs lose money and Manchester City would have lost more money had it not been for the activities that it's undertaken. There's lots of people trying to work out just how much of a points deduction or what could happen to City and understandably,

there's a lot of comparisons to other clubs. Phil in Surrey has said, if Everton were deducted six points for their first defence and two for their second, does that mean that a 232 point deduction for City? Clearly it would be pointless to do that all in one season. Could they do it across a few seasons mean they get relegated in successive seasons?

Dale, what do you think of that? That's, funny enough, that was something that we've been discussing here in Copenhagen at the European Football Club meeting today. that's really a 70 point deduction is the maximum you can apply in one season and for it to have an impact because 70 points pretty much relegates you

anything above 70 points is meaningless really because it will have no further impact on your league position on what might happen to you so could they decide to do it that way and try to do it over multiple seasons depending on the number of points it is but I guess anything's on the table for the sanction hearing

when it does actually happen in time. But yeah, I mean, the Edmont one is a really good example there with £19.5 million on their overspend and they got six points for that. Now, exactly how this will break down over a number of seasons for this $830 million or $920 million actually

when you take into account for the other offences. So how you break out that $920 million into points will probably depend on how it goes across each season. I know we did it earlier, but it's about the relationship with the EFL as well, isn't it? I mean, we've got all these people from other clubs saying, oh, relegate them to League 2, put them in League 1, but it's just not that simple, is it, Jens?

There is an agreement between the Premier League and the AFL to effectively either competition can affect, accept a disciplinary punishment, be that points or whatever, no matter which defeat the team's in. Now, if it was a straight points deduction, that would be fine. We've seen that with Leicester City. It would be very interesting if we did have that,

scenario whereby, let's say, Manchester City are given 50 points across three seasons and then they have to start the championship on minus 50 and the lead one on minus 50 if they were to go down again. There's another question that's actually coming from Sean and Kemp, but I'm told quite a few people have been asking this. Is there any knock-on impact on Manchester City's women's side, Dale? Do we have any indications of that at this stage? I wouldn't have thought so because they're a completely separate entity.

I mean, it's not as a very important. if the financial issues are going to leave the club with no money and they've clearly got bottom lengths and ounce of money themselves. It's just that they couldn't spend it themselves. So I can't say how that would be the case. Dale, how long will they be given if they are? It's a worst case scenario. We're always talking worst case scenario.

So we don't want Manchester City fans texting and saying we're all doom and gloom. We're just looking at worst case scenario and answering a few questions. If the worst does happen and they are put into the EFL or the relegated next year, how long do they have to comply with the EFL's financial rules? That's a good question. Probably Kieran's a better place to answer that specifically, but they do normally tend to give a little, I think they give some time for that type of thing.

Yeah, there is a transitional allowance. So the normal rule is that a club can spend 85% of its revenue. But remember, what you would also have to take into consideration is that if Manchester City sell any players during the summer, that would go into their EFL pot for, next season. And I think given the value of the Manchester City squad, which is in excess of one billion pounds in terms of what they've spent, let alone what the players are probably worth in the market today, the mass exodus, I think that many of us would anticipate, would allow

City to acclimatize to life in the EFL through player sales alone. And even if they're given a transfer ban on incoming, they do have a very strong academy and they'd be able to utilize that. There's all sorts of theories coming in here as well. Claire has said if Citi are relegated to the championship, could they loan out players for 12 months until they were back in the Premier League? Well, no. Well, yes, but no, because there are limits

about the number of clubs, team players that can be loaned out. So let's just take it. If they try to loan their senior players outside of the UK, they could only loan a maximum of six out. And the domestic build feels it's a maximum. maximum of two to Premier League clubs. They're not going to loan them to championship clubs, of course. So there are restrictions there.

There are certain different rules for under 21 players, but unlikely to apply in this really very much. So, yeah, they could loan some out, but it wouldn't be a case whereby they could loan four players to Russia, two players to Russia, Dalton, two players to Brasota, two players to Barcelona, two to Rio Madrid, and then bring them back. There are new FIFA rules, and if you're over 21, then it's a maximum of six.

Paul, have you got any more questions? I feel like I'm still in your thunder here. I've got plenty, but you seem to have quite a few. No, no, not at all. It's just interesting to kind of put it in layman's terms, isn't it? Because, you know, as an outsider looking in, you're trying to understand it and collect all this information at the same time. When actually everyone has got so many questions,

I think the obvious ones are, what next, how long is it going to take? What's the worst and what's the best case scenarios? Do you know what? There's a few people are asking that. We've got some very niche questions, but Gary and Hebden Bridge has said, realistically, given how complicated all of this is, is there any chance it could be sorted before the end of the season? What do you think about that, Kieran?

I think there's a very high chance that it will be resolved. Because if it isn't, we then end up with another situation similar to that of Burnley and Everton, where a club could be relegated. Manchester City are not given a deduction. This season, it's giving this next season instead, and the club, which finishes 18th in the Premier League, will say, well, had that deduction been applied earlier, had been applied the previous season, then we wouldn't have been relegated. So that would add to the complications. Certainly looking at the Premier League's press release itself, it does seem that it was very keen for this to be resolved as quickly as possible. And if you take a look at the length of time that it took the commissions in respect

of Forrest and Everton, once they'd heard it. the evidence actually applying the tariff was actually the quick part of the equation. It's listening to the evidence, which is the torturous process we've been through to date, which has been the time delay. Let's look at it. Sorry, Kelly. Let's look at it another way. Let's look at it on a positive way for Manchester City fans.

Say they are to be, all these charges are to be dropped. Without stating the obvious that they have to prove it, what is it that they have to do to get off this or to remain in the Premier League? Well, I think first of all, they would have to prove, if they're going to appeal against the initial verdict, they have to prove that the composition of the panel was flawed, either in the selection process or be able to identify bias in the individuals concerned. When I've spoken to sports lawyers, the universal response to that is it's almost impossible, but that's not the same as impossible. Nothing's impossible in law when you talk to a lawyer, of course. But

So I think they would struggle there. The other issue would be could they try to take this outside of the football bubble and say that this ultimately is a commercial dispute between two companies. And therefore, the Premier League doesn't have the right to impose such penalties and try to get it resolved in a high court. Again, when I've spoken to legal professionals, they say they think it highly unlikely, but it's always a possibility depending upon the way that the information is presented. Remember, Manchester City have overturned the UEFA ban before due to the strength of their lawyers

and some of their lawyers do have a fantastic reputation for being able to do things which was under normal circumstances would be considered highly unlikely. Tom in London said, is there any indication what any city appeal might be based upon? Is it the rest of the evidence or just interpreted? the same numbers differently, Kieran? I don't think it's, the evidence appears to be overwhelming.

I think reading the summary report, which I think Dale and I probably have been through three or four times already this evening, what appears to be the case that one of Manchester City's defences was that the Premier League

wasn't in the position to hold this hearing because of the way that the evidence had been obtained. that was very firmly rejected by the commission, so I can't see that being overturned. As for what appears to be an overwhelming amount of evidence and the lack of faith in the Manchester City witnesses, I can't really see anything as far as these hundreds of thousands of pieces of evidence and the 7,000 pages of testimony, how that could possibly be overturned from a legal

point of view. It has to be an attack on the people involved. said, if Manchester City receive a huge fine, what would the FA do with that money? Where would it go, Dale? If I remember rightly and Cameron will put me wrong, if this is not correct, I believe that's shared among the Premier League clubs themselves. And that will effectively be offset against the Premier League's legal bill. Now, again, discussions with lawyers suggest that they think that Manchester City could be liable for probably around two-thirds to three-quarters of the Premier League's legal.

costs, which have been estimated in the region of £50 to £60 million. So that would go to offset the remaining costs which have been borne by the 20 Premier League clubs, including Manchester City. And Dan has said, how many clubs do you think will seek compensation? I imagine they claim loss of earnings, prize money, etc. Not just the teams who missed out on titles, but those who lost twice in a season to city and got relegated. I get the feeling, Kieran, that could open quite a can of worms.

And if they are to do that, the individual teams, will that be? be a collaboration of all the teams or that will be left to each club to individually have their case? I think some clubs will seek a private settlement, a negotiated settlement, Paul. So I don't think it will be a collective, I don't think it will be a class action from other clubs. So therefore it will be done on an individual basis. Some clubs have got more an emotional relationship in this and others. Others are purely financial. And then there's a further issue. How about the players of those clubs who are denied the opportunity to win? titles who denied the opportunity to play in the Champions League in particular, because if you

talk to players, especially those of the Big Six, they will often say we are on a bonus of 20 to 25 percent additional income. So if you take a look at the average earnings of a Premier League football or in the Big Six, last season we were talking, well, 160,000 pounds a week on average. That's 8 million pounds a year. Twenty-five percent of that. is 2 million. You multiply that by a 25 man squad and you've got 50 million pounds. Now, I appreciate wages won't necessarily at this level during the period, but it's something which could go into the equation. And we'll finish on this one. Dappy said, very simply, based on everything you've read, what is the most likely punishment, Dale and Kieran? I'm kind of

keen to what both of you think on that. Dale, are you first? Well, such of the, if we're taking the Premier League statement today, the 40-page document, sorry, on that face value, then there is no way this is ever going to be anything other than a very hefty point deduction at the very minimum. Now, where it goes beyond that, we'll have to see, I mean, there is a potential, of course, for there to be a transfer embargo, which would limit the club's ability to recover from it further. but I think a transfer embargo is also quite likely considering the level of the breaches. So a huge point to deduction and the transfer embargo at the very least. I agree with Dale and on top of that there will be a very significant financial penalty added into the equation. The logic behind having a transfer embargo is it then becomes a multi-season issue. And if we go back to 2013 when Manchester City were also in breach of the initial UEFA rules during that period,

they had a transfer ban and a wage cap and a squad cap and so on, which did impact upon the club in the consequent and subsequent seasons. Kieran, final, final question from me. How long do you think your marriage has remaining? On the basis of the way Mrs. M went up to bed tonight, if there's any marriage counsellors listening, if you could forward them my number, I'm it, I'll be eternally grateful. Well, Kieran, it's been fascinating. So a massive thank you to Dale Johnson and Kieran McGuire for answering all of our questions. This is the football story of the century.

It's pandemonium, it's ecstasy. It's an authoritarian regime. For the past 15 years, English football has been dominated by Manchester City. They are champions again, but not only that, they've won it four years running, and no one's done that, ever. Then the Premier League dropped a bombshell. The Premier League has charged Manchester City with more than 100 breaches of its financial rules following a four-year investigation. Somebody turned up at the Hetty had stadium and effectively served papers.

Here in-depth analysis and explanation on football on triumph. The Manchester City charges listen on BBC Sounds. It's late 2007 and while attending a Christmas party, Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg meets a woman who would change the course of his company. forever. She joined Facebook as chief of operations in 2008 and has been credited for making the company profitable. And herself enormously rich. On Good Bad Billionaire, we're exploring the life and fortune of billionaire tech leader Cheryl Sandberg. Listen on BBC.com, the BBC app, or wherever you get your podcasts.