Green Light with Chris Long - ESPN's Stanford Steve On Super Bowl Betting.

Episode Date: February 6, 2021

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required 25 times play through. Restrictions apply see draftkings.com slash sportsbook for details. Gambling problem call 1800 gambler or in Indiana 1,8009 with it. Welcome to the Greenlight gambling show sponsored by draft kings of course joining me as always for our final football show of the year is stanford steve how's it going brother excellent christopher how are you doing good you got all your

your uh your gear on right now we're all in our chips are in the middle of the table i guess i don't really have to like wait to figure out who you're going to take you have the full cream sickle outfit and it's dope i love it all right what what it's not fun to take Take my homes? Who wants to take my homes? No, after this week, it might be the least fun ever. Yeah. Take my homes. I mean, if they've, we've been saying this for a while. Like, likeability, they're going to definitely have to trade his likeability for a decade

if they want to win this championship because they'll get real old, real fast. But I don't know, man. Like, what do you think is the biggest piece of news to keep your eye on coming into it? Is it Winfield? Is it something else? Well, I don't think, like people are talking now, there's going to be a possibility of a thunderstorm. Like, I don't think the weather has anything to do

with the outcome of this game. I really don't. You know as well as anybody. There's freaking thousands of footballs on the field. And you know what they have nowadays if they didn't have back in Super Bowl 1 and 2 or when your dad was playing? They have ball dryers on the sidelines.

Like a wet ball. It's not going to be a fact. I'm sorry. I don't think it's going to be a factor. I think the health of Winfield and Whitehead, the last I saw was not at full speed or not fully ready yet. They were limited in practice. So to me, you know, we know, we've talked at nauseam about, you know, the first time they played.

I don't take much of that game into account. I don't either. I don't either. I mean, 17, nothing to blink of an eye. And I'll tell you right now, if that happens again, Buccaneers got no chance. No chance. Because that foot's not getting off the gas. So I really think it's what Kansas City does early to coincide with the injuries at tackle.

I know Schwartz has been out for multiple weeks. But, you know, now the Fisher deal, I mean, Barrett and JPP have been phenomenal. And now Vita V. DeVay is back. Like, Bowles is going to have some things. And that's why I sort of been talking to Sweet Chris and other things that I've been doing. But now this is the most important one. We know that is the idea of both teams running the football. I think with the Winfield and Whitehead thing,

I mean, obviously they're going to do something different. And I think they have to overcompensate Tampa does if they don't have either or one of those two guys to protect their guys in the back end. So what does that do? Light box. Yeah, light box. You know how much confidence they have in Levante and Devon to cover Kelsey. So I think like that's a matchup, like, you know, keep him in front of you, keep everybody in front of you, you know, do the old rally, run to the ball and, you know, leave the flats open and run that open.

So I've been looking at, you know, running back props with, you know, I think Ronald Jones is huge on the other side. But with Kansas City, you drafted Clyde Edwards Eilayer in the first round. You paid Patrick Mahomes $500 million. Like give, give the biscuit to your guys, you know. and on the others, you know, how much can you take away Tyreek Hill and Kelsey? I don't know. But I think if you play the patience game, which I think Bowles might do early on to try and say, hey, you know, we'll take dink and dunk all the way down the field.

Does Mahomes have the patience to do that? I don't know. So it's going, I like Tampa. I just, I don't think you're pressed in a situation where you have to bring, like, see if you can't get home rushing the passer before you start blitzing the exactly out of this guy and i am of the belief that keeping things in front of you especially early because of what you said if there's a repeat of 17 nothing it's over i mean forget it you're not even going to be in the game like you were the first time so you know if i'm todd

bulls i mean they only played man in actuality nine times that game uh which was a shot because it felt like a lot more um you know the other end of it, I'm actually more thinking about how much Spags is going to blitz Tom, because he did that a lot, week 12. On that while I have you, how much can Spags throw at Tom that he hasn't seen? Well, evidently a lot because generally Tom doesn't fare as well against Spags.

I mean, like, that's, and listen, that's all, it's all relative. So him not picking Spags apart is not faring relatively well. but, you know, famously the Super Bowl and even some other matchups, he hasn't been his best. So I don't think, you know, Spags, you heard him talk this week about trying to keep Tom Brady from reading their mail, you know, and I can hear him saying that haven't been coached by him. It's a term that just basically means like, let's not, let's not telegraph anything, you know. And so I think their disguises are going to be really key and, you know, how they get into coverage is late. And if you're going to bring pressure on Tom, this is one of my biggest pep pepaves in just. general watching quarterbacks and defenses is if you're going to blitz a really good quarterback,

do not be seven yards deep on the snap. So I think, you know, early on watching Kansas City and how Tom plays with the cadence, how Tom tries to identify things pre-snap, all the things we worried about first half of the season from a standpoint of he's not getting the motion pre-snap to identify. He's not getting certain things that he's used to. They're doing those things now. So I think that chess match pre-snap, I think it should be much more simple on the other end of the football when Kansas City has the football. I think you do keep things in front of you. You pick your spots and you get after them up front. If you can't beat two backup tackles, now I said this this week on Jeff Schwartz's pop, it's not necessarily that each, like I'm not assuming these guys are matchups you'd rather have, but generally when you have two guys down from a communication standpoint, not just the skill,

standpoint, from a, you know, from a working together standpoint, you know, sliding a line, making calls, that in and of itself is a worry. And on top of that, you've got probably the best duo in the league down the stretch. Yeah. Pass rushing against two backup tackles in a Super Bowl. If you can't exploit those matchups, and I'm not putting it all on JPP and Shaq because you can do things to mitigate, you can seven man protect, you can get the ball out quick, you can do all those things. Somebody has to win up front. Whoever gets the one-on-one has to win. So don't walk away from the game and just automatically look at these guys. Look at how after the game, when the chips fall, how they block these guys if they had to decide, hey, we're going to let some other dude beat us,

you know, the whole Belichick thing. Like, who are we going to? I'm not going to put it on Shaq and JPP necessarily, but somebody up front needs to win. A couple things. I'm really, interested to see what Tampa does by that one by three set where Kansas City comes out and they put Kelsey by himself into the boundary and then they dance all those other three guys, you know, to the field. Really interested to see what they do with that. Do they put somebody else, you know, on Kelsey in those circumstances because they still go to him. He still runs his arrow from there. You know, he still runs his hitches, all that stuff. So that's, that's the big flavor that I want to, I want to see early on. And the other reason I like Tampa Bay is I really expect Brady to come out and be as sharp as we've seen.

And when I went back and looked at this because I was just curious, and I know people have done other things in that. Do you know how many first quarter touchdown passes Tom Brady's thrown in this career in the Super Bowl? In the Super Bowl. In the Super Bowl. In the Super Bowl. First quarter touchdown passes. Oh, wait, hold on a second. This is going to be, I'm going to go with 13. How many touchdown passes has Tom Brady thrown in the first quarter of a, in a Super Bowl?

No, wait, two of them, he probably didn't throw too many, so I'll go down to eight. Zero. What? Zero touchdown passes in the first quarter of Super Bowls. You know how many points his team has scored in the first quarter of his nine Super Bowls? Well, you're right. If you, if you- I should say how many touchdowns, how many touchdowns his team has scored in the first quarter of Super Bowl?

They did start slow against Seattle. They, we start slow. So zero against the Falcons. You just said it. Zero. Zero. Period. Zero.

Zero. Think about that. Damn. Think about that. And like I'm, because the whole time I'm saying, I'm like, first half under has been crazy, man, lately. It just feels like it's been, you know, just nuts thinking about it. And now we know what he's done in the second half of Seattle, Atlanta. You know, they fell behind against, you know, you guys are. in Philly he had to chuck it more than.

But I really expect him to come out and be, like that has been a dead set thing where he has not been good. And it's a product of people having two weeks to prepare for him. Like let's let's face it. Like, you know, all our analytic people want to talk about data points. There's nine data points right there where he hasn't been well. Now, you know, the first Super Bowl and the Giants, you know, rematch. Like there's a lot going on there.

But when you just step back and think about it like, holy shit, he's never thrown a touchdown pass in the first quarter. You should never guess the over there because, yeah, the Giants, they struggled offensively both games there. They struggled. The only game that they were really in the Super Bowl, prolific offensively other than the second half of the Atlanta Super Bowl was the, I was just thinking about the Panthers game who scored 30.

Panthers, yeah, I watched that one again this week. You know, but that was scoreless with six minutes left in the second quarter. And it goes to the half 14-10. I was a Panthers fan growing up, so I felt like we were in it the whole game. You know, like, I think it's interesting because this would be the year that you'd look at that and say, as we're about to give out our bets for total and that sort of thing in first half, I think you'd look at it this year and say, well, judging by that trend, has it ever been more noticeable that they've struggled out of the gate all year long?

Like, the bucks have been slow in the first quarter. order, three and outs early. This would be the game that it totally turns around because it makes too much sense. It makes too much sense. It really does. And then look at on the other side. Look at Kansas City. I mean, the whole year we've talked about how they've let teams hang around, you know,

been sloppy early on. And, you know, Patrick goes and pulls a rabbit on his hat. So to me, if you're looking at over under first half thing, like the first half under, like, I like, I mean, yeah, okay. I like the first half over and I like the under for the game. And right now we have first half under is 27 and a half. And we have the over under at 56. Yep.

I could see 21 10 at the half or even, you know, 17, 10 at the half and being right on the nose. But it's going to be in the in the region. I think it'll grind to a little bit of a halt out of the half. And I like the under. Okay. The rain, the rain, the rain should, the rain is not what's driving this thing. No. The rain is, as we've talked about it, it's not like, in fact, there's more of a chance of

some fluky turnover and, you know, the overhitting. I just, I just feel like this is a game where the gravity of it doesn't speed it up. It slows it down a little bit. You know, like last year felt there's some big games you get into where the pace feels frenzied. Tampa's not going to do that. I don't let that happen. They're wanting this game to be in control early. They don't want it to be out of control.

So they're going to dictate tempo. I like the under for the game. When I'm looking at players, too, I've been looking at the running backs. I mentioned Elair. His combined rushing and receiving is like 43 yards. I like that over. I think they're going to feed him. I also saw a prop of.

of Clyde Edwards-Elear rush yards more than the age of the MVP. Oh, wow. Which I thought was really, like I like the Edwards. I wouldn't like, there's a couple of chiefs rushing totals. I said this earlier. Like, I'd rather, when I was on with Jimmy, it was like, I would rather take the under on pretty much any rushing total. But if I had to pick one, it would be his.

And I'm talking about chiefs running back. So, oh, wow. Okay. I could see him be, I could see him hitting 40, but then I could also see Tom Brady winning the MVP. There you go. That's tough, dude. It's tough. You've done your homework now.

No, I know he's old. So, I mean, yeah, that's an interesting prop. But going back to that on the other side, I really like Ronald Jones in this game. Love him. I think he's more dynamic. And people forget, like, he won this start. job. He won this job through production on the field, and I love the playoff Lenny thing and all that, and it's been great. And they fed him. That's because Ronald Jones wasn't available. He's more

dynamic. He's way more dangerous in running the football and catching the football. So I look at Ronald Jones. I mean, I think his rush yards are 30-something. And I mean, in the last game, think about this, they were down 17, nothing. He had nine carries for 66 yards. Like I think he's going to get fed. No, he's going to get fed. And I think part of the thought process is if I had to just like guess, if you've got a guy with a quad deep in the playoffs and you don't think it's necessarily like imperative that you get him out there and feed him the rock. Because you saw when he opened up, that's when things bothered him like with a quad when you start.

Yep, I guess it states when he broke a couple. Yeah, when he broke that that explosive down the left sideline, it was like he runs out of bounds. He's like, damn, he gets the full speed. you know you're knowing you have that two weeks you're knowing that if you can manage his load like through a couple weeks you're going to get the freshest he's probably been since whenever he got hurt so yeah because when was that injury it was i think it was right after the chief the chiefs game right so he's been battling that was week 12 whether it was week 13 week 40 like i don't know but it feels like this is probably right after that this is the most healthy uh you'll get from ronald jones and i think they know that and now it's burn the ship's time. So if you think that he's the guy that can rack you up some yardage, you feed him the rock. And, you know, being dinged up, the last two games, they're two biggest games at the years. He's still accounted for 22 rushes. You know, like they still have found a way to get him the ball. And I love just because you have so many opportunities with Tom

and how good he is in the dink and dunk game, his over, you know, it's basically will Ronald Jones catch a pass? And it's, you know, it's a problem. It's over. under on catches is a half. Yeah, I'll take that. I'll take that. I mean, I'll take it. I mean, I think there's a little juice on it, but I would take that. Yeah, I would take that one too. And I also like Tom's over 295 yards or whatever it was earlier in the week. I got to look again, but it's right below 300 yards. And I think he's going to hit that. That's going to be over, that's going to be like 301 and a half by kickoff guarantee. And here's the deal. I mean, like, listen, we're saying that the rain isn't going to affect things.

But if it affected one team more than the other, it might affect the chiefs more than, than, the bucks in my opinion. No doubt. Chris, I went back. I watched last night or the night before, you know, the AFC title game when they played in Kansas City two years ago. I mean, I know this is two years later, but it was so freaking cold. He has, I think he had five third and ten. I'm taking the, I'm taking the D-Ford lining up off sides out of it. Between that drive and the overtime drive, there was five third and tens. Yeah. five, third, and tens. He got them all.

It was open in the middle of the field. Somehow, like, somehow, like, I remember that sequence. Unbelievable, how precise he was. Unbelievable. I expect him to be razor sharp. And if I'm going down, I'm going down with Brady trying to win another one. I'll take Bucks money line. And I'll probably take Bucks Money Line.

I'll probably, I'll probably bet them. I have them at plus four. I'll probably bet them, you know, golly, they're at 145 here. I like that just about as much. I might as well just push all the chips, as you said, to the front of the table. One thing I've heard people talk about,

and this is where it gets way too crazy and thinking stuff, and I will admit, it gets too complaining for me because I suck at math, is people are saying if Tampa wins, Brady's going to be the MVP. Right.

And he's plus, I think, 205, 250. over 200. People were just saying, just take that. Yeah. And I'm like, I don't know. Like, I thought Damien Williams

should have been the MVP last year. He didn't win. Right, but that just proves the point that people are trying to make, which is that chances are, tie goes to Tom Brady. Really hard, really hard. I don't see somebody else.

If it's a receiver that has a huge day, I see it as a Tom thing. If it's a back that has a big day, you'd have to have like an astronomically big day, right? The last running back to, when MVP was Terrell Davis in 98. Yeah, dude. So that's the deal.

It's like, you know, okay, for a defensive player for the bucks to win it, and I, and I said on the pod today with making, I was like, dark horse would obviously be Shaq Barrett. And, you know, I could see him having a three-sack kind of Von Miller type day. But most ways this game plays out, it's just like process of elimination. I think it goes Brady. So to your point, yeah, I love that. And if you're looking at any other.

I have a prop bet that they should. put up. Yeah. More bets placed for Chris Long. Before the game kicks off or during the game. Oh, man. I don't know, man. This draft king stuff's pretty exciting.

It's in Virginia now. Exactly. There's a lot of factors that you've never had for a Super Bowl now. A lot of different bets out there, man. I just hope people look at all the great props that, because I was just like fumbling through them this week. like a kid at the the weekend didn't text me back

yeah he was supposed to hit me about his first song was going to be eight songs eight songs less I think he's actually got less songs than eight and I'm taking the under on the national anthem you did your research on that I did you know Jasmine Sullivan

she once sung the national anthem sang it in at one of those outdoor hockey events and for I think 136 in 2016 wow no country singer except Luke Brian ever went over. And he went over in a Super Bowl that I totally forgot about.

It was our Super Bowl. I didn't even remember when he sang the National Anthem. So that goes to tell you where your head's at during the National Anthem. I think because it's a duet, it'll go longer. The last duet was like way over. I've done my research. I really liked the under. How long does it feel when you're standing there on the sidelines?

I couldn't tell you because I don't remember. Wow. It's just, it's such a blur, dude. It is, it is, your day is camera flashes. You know, I don't remember Brandon Graham's play in detail. You know, I don't remember. There's just moments, man. It's really the fastest.

You wait your entire life to play in a situation like this, and it is fucking over. It's, uh, it's all, uh, we had just, Jeff Saturday on Van Pelt's podcast this week. And we did story time with him. And it's incredible, man, like how anal Peyton Manning was because there was a threat of rain and what he had to do while they were practicing in Indianapolis. And I'm just going to tell you, it dealt with wet balls outside in Indianapolis in February. Yeah.

And Jeff, let's just say they had to bring a change of clothes out for Jeff because it got a little too cold in parts that it shouldn't for a man. It's awesome. He was incredible. But that's what he talked about. Like the idea and, you know, he talks about he got an IV at halftime because of you can't, you can't come down from, you know, the anthem, the flyby, the flashes. And then Devin Hester running the kickoff back and you're down seven. That's the only kickoff. I saw one guy made a bet this year, some insane bet.

that the first kickoff won't be run back for a touchdown. I think he's risking like tens of thousands of dollars. But that's the only time has ever happened. So yeah, I mean, like the whole thing is just that New England Super Bowl, like the whole team was sick. Everybody was already run down. No, Philly, New England up in Minneapolis. So damn cold.

All the germs were just getting passed back and forth between the Mall of America. And dudes were run down legit before the game. So all the adrenaline plus that a lot of times, like you just don't know what guys are battling through. And it is, it is the most, it's the most, it's like a tornado in your brain is the way I can put it. It's like the varsity blues montage with ACDC lived out in real life. That's what if, how I remember it. That's nuts, man. That's great.

You wait your whole life to do it. And it's, well, it's like being on speed, I would imagine. So, yeah. Well, you don't have to be on speed at home. You just have to get your bets in. Correct. And I don't mind this, this, I don't mind this side of the TV. Heisman Futures.

Let's. Hard right. Really looking in the head. Hard right turn into Heisman Futures. Okay. Finally, I figured we'd end this, this rough year talking about something positive. The hope for a regular college football season in 2021. That would be nice.

Isman Futures are out. Tell me what you know about the four favorite. Can I guess them? Yeah, go ahead. All right. Rattler from Oklahoma. Sam Howell, North Carolina. Bryce Young, Alabama.

Mm-hmm. And Owey Ungolele. Mm-hmm. You got it. All right. So can you guess the odds? Rattler's got to be five to one? he's three and a half to one oh god that don't even play that yeah Clemson uh ui Oongolalee which I'm working on by next year I'll be good yeah

he's plus 400 Bryce Young is plus 450 and my man Sam Howell is plus a thousand I've been talking about Sam Howell I love Sam Howell man I love Sam Howell I might go in as much it pains me I'm going to have to root against him you know next year during uh one weekend you know for the year but i i like that at plus a thousand sam how wow i like the rattler kid though don't let that fucking rattler kid get good at like like really like really like really good like a yeah but that price isn't even worth it no but i'm saying like lifetime for him to be can you imagine going in the hall of fame as a quarterback with the name rattler you're a movie guy it's so cool i mean it's amazing that That's what you cast, you know, the quarterback and program part D.

To be named. All right. I like that name, but sorry, those odds are not real friendly as Steve. Sam I am, baby. Yeah. So, yeah, man, this has been a pleasure having Stanford Steve on every Friday. And the gambling will continue. We just, we're going to take a little break from football here.

And we need it. Yeah, yeah, we do. Yeah, we do. Yeah, we do. So catch Steve again on green light at some point here. And thanks, my brother. It's been fun. Absolutely.

Thank you, my man. Good luck to everybody Sunday. We really mean that.