Green Light with Chris Long - NFL Conference Championships, Picks Powered by BetAmerica.

Episode Date: January 17, 2020

NFL Conference Championships, Picks Powered by BetAmerica | Chalk Media. On this week’s Green Light Exclusive, Chris Long and Stanford Steve give their picks for this weekend’s NFL Conference Championships games. Thank you to BetAmerica for sponsoring our weekly sports betting Green Light with Stanford Steve. About Chalk Media: Following the unfiltered voice and vision of Chris Long, Chalk Media is the interactive online community for you, the intelligent and humorous sports fan. Driven by access, Chalk delivers a unique perspective that cuts through the canned talking points and provides a variety of content from your favorite sports and entertainment celebrities. Here at Chalk, we don’t take ourselves too seriously, but we are rooted in challenging the perception of professional athletes. We embrace the “real” with a unique combination of humor and intelligence. Chalk is a community with a voice beyond 240 characters that brings a perspective and vibe to a traditionally brash and boastful sports media space. Subscribe and enjoy weekly content including podcasts, documentaries, live chats, celebrity interviews and more. Nothing is off limits at Chalk - hot news items, trending discussions from the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA, NCAA are just a small part of what we will be sharing with you. 🌍🏀🏈SUBSCRIBE NOW ⚾🏒⛰️ http://bit.ly/chalknetwork Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to the NFL betting portion of our Greenlight production. This is the Greenlight Gambling Show, powered by Bet America, who provide us with all of our lines and make sure you go to Betamerica.com. Download the app. You can check out my game picks. You can be on my long shots. Lots going on at Bet America. Thrilled to be involved with them.

And I'm thrilled to talk to my good friend who I never see. I haven't seen you in ages, Steve. Two days ago, you want to see me again. Well, technically, I'm not. I guess the last time I saw you was pretty early or late, depending on how you look at it. That was more on you. You enjoyed the day way more than I did. I know you were working.

People got to work. You'd come fresh out of work, said hello, and then I headed off to close the shutters as dark as possible and get ready for my flight home, which is very intimidated when you leave New Orleans. There's a lot of scleries going on. There sure are. I'm sure they trailed you all the way back to Charlottes. They trailed me. It was, and the worst part was everybody's flight was delayed out of New Orleans. I think it's actually the best part because there's nothing more dreadful than an early morning flight after New Orleans.

I disagree. You like to get out of there? I was on the 545. I never sleep my final night in New Orleans. I just want to get to that flight and that flight proceeded to be delayed six hours. So I had a solid four and a half hours in the old Delta Sky Miles Club in New Orleans. Got my bag lost on the way home. It's been a great couple days getting home.

Was there anything important in the bag? I forgot. Yeah. Well, I kind of wonder what the threshold is for intoxication in an airport. Sometimes I'm like, if I try to go through security, are they just going to like send me away? Yeah. You know, have you seen that happened? Have you seen that happen before?

I have not, but if there's a place that's going to happen, it's going to be there. I think their patience is probably higher in New Orleans for the fact that they're very used to it. I mean, the cops on Bourbon Street, they're kind of like, just don't burn a building down. You should be okay. And we had fun, man. That was the atmosphere at that game was like nothing I've ever seen before. Incredible. It was a perfect balance. I give Clemson people a lot of credit.

They showed up. I was trying to, I figured they would show out, you know, with the opportunity that was at hand, knowing how great of a place and great of an atmosphere it was going to be with LSU in that building, in that city, in that state. I'd been there before for the 2011 title game, and I was getting LSU people mad because I thought it was more Alabama. And the LSU people were quick to point out back in that game, they didn't have one thing to cheer for, so you didn't hear from them all night.

They got to beat 21 tough, they didn't get the ball, to the 50 yard line until the fourth quarter. So the LSU, yeah, I mean, you got the full effect for sure. I did, and I loved it. I mean, like, I really love LSU fans. Like, I, I, it's, it, and everybody in New Orleans was very gracious. Evidently, we have a lot of pod listeners down there. Everybody knows you and loves you.

But like, for me, you know, a young gun in the game, it was, it was awesome to run into a couple New Orleans folks and say they enjoy the green light content. So if anybody's enjoying this content from the Bayou, we appreciate you. And I love your city. I can't wait to come back. I'm going to come back and do a sober New Orleans week. I'm going to go see the history. I'm going to eat.

I'm going to join myself. Yeah, all that stuff. It's much better in my mind than doing a sober Vegas week. That's the thing about Vegas, New Orleans. New Orleans is more multifaceted, in my opinion. Yes, you have gambling in Vegas. but who wants to be sober in Vegas? I like that take.

Yeah, that's a good take. Okay. So let's get into, well, let's first go back over the record, which I have contractually obliged to do before we get into this week's slate of picks, as always. I'm going to tell you when you're done. Okay, yeah, yeah, you can just check out for this. In college, I was 0-1, you were 0-1 as well.

I think you took Clemson. Yep. Which is fine, you know? Didn't love it. And then... And then the pros, in the pros, I was two and two, and Steve was one and three. Overall, I'm 41 and 30. Steve's 29 and 41 and 1.

That one, though, that's really important to note. There was a tie in there. Yeah. And by the way, Steve, I always say this. It's better than me. A blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while, and I've been finding acorns all fall. At least... Ample about.

ounce of acorns. At least on this pod. The problem is I get betting on these games that I'm not talking about here. And that's where I get into trouble in my actual bank account. But, so we're going to go back and forth this week. We obviously have a big, exciting weekend. The weekends to me, I don't know about what you think about this take. They get less and less exciting for me going to the Super Bowl because I know the end is near. Yep. Like that's just looming. And it's the same thing with March Madness for me at least. Yeah. No doubt about it. It's really hard being spoiled as a fan and knowing what we just had this past weekend, which is just incredible with the way the title game was built into the best weekend, which is divisional weekend. Now, you know, like, it's really hard, you know, to get into the conference championship game. Now they push them back, and all you want to do is know who's going to Super Bowl. And then you get tired of talking about the two teams into Super Bowl.

And then the Super Bowl takes forever. and then you get mad at the halftime show, and then it's over. Big Monday, and you're looking, who am I taking? Virginia or Louisville. Yeah, and listen, lately, that's not been a lot of fun. Virginia's had some struggles. But, sorry. But, you know, we have a national championship, so that's always fun.

I mean, just a little detail there. Both these games, you know, a little foreshadowing for what I'm going to talk about here, but I think they're going to be good games. Why don't we start with the Packers and the Niners? What do you got in that game? First inkling, it's just really hard to get out my head of what happened in that first game. I mean, Rogers got it handed to him. He wasn't himself.

I believe he was 0 of 8 on throws of 15 yards or more in that game. They never had a chance. I really thought that was the night you saw the Niners' versatility on offense really show out. The way they would go jet sweeps, even running them the kittle, and then coming back with Shal. lacrosse is off of that with Emmanuel Sanders and Debo's coming out party. Garoppolo look really comfortable. So that game's really hard to get out of my head because I just feel like the matchup is really, really brutal.

I think the Niners are way better on the offensive side and the defensive side of each line of scrimmage. So right there, it's seven and a half. I'd probably buy that down to seven. But going here, I expect, you know, and I get it. This is Rogers the way he likes this where he could just have that gun sligger mentality as he's the underdog. But I just, I just think the Niners are so well constructed to go after the Packers in every way possible. So I'd buy that to seven and lay the seven with the Niners.

Yeah, for me, I'm kind of, this is one that, truth be told, I don't feel great about. No, you know. Both games I think are tough. Yeah, if I had a lean here, I would probably, say over because I do think the, if you're going to bank on the Packers not scoring a lot for the second game in a row. I mean, season low eight points there. He, you know, was Aaron's lowest in yards per attempt. It was Aaron's lowest in, let's you check my notes here, in points, you know, they never scored less than that all year. And then it started with a sack fumble that, that ended up

in damn near a touchdown, like on the road, in a big game like that. Once you do that, the first possession, the wheels fall off. So I expect a much closer game. Now, I don't know if a touchdown is enough, but I'm going to take the Packers. I am just because this is the point where I don't bet against Aaron. Like, I haven't trusted the Packers all year. Now, they played their way into having a buy. They played a defense that's not great, and he looked really good, especially early on getting that big lead. But it's more for me about banking on. the Niners not having two games like that against the Packers.

Jimmy G's rating was the high on the year for him. I think San Francisco blitzed a season high. They blitz almost less than anybody on the year. They blitz on over 30% of their plays. I think they have time now to go back and look at that. I'm sure they were

looking at it on the buy. I think they're getting the offense more, and they've reeled off six straight since then. So mentally, I think they're in a better place, and I'm not going to bet against A-Rod as I call him when I get killed for that every time I do I'm going to take the Packers very

very timidly Okay Yeah The start is the start is very big Packers go up early And the pressure gets a little bit on Jimmy G That's going to be really Really interesting to watch

And you would have to feel good About the Packers there I mean they ran like They ran like 70 something plays on the day And only got eight points out of them So I can't tell if that's a good or a bad thing. It was a bad thing then, but if we're forecasting for this game, I think if they execute a little bit better here and there, we're not going to be looking

at a blowout. I'm just, I know the Niners are probably going to win the game, but I'm banking on a closer game. Part of that is I want to see a closer game, so I'm going to will it to happen. I'll take the pack and get the touchdown. So, let's go to Titan Chiefs, and this is the game I'm really excited about. We're going to be doing another live stream during the game. So, you know, check that one out, Steve. I'm sure you will. Well, I'll be at work, so I can't.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, dial us up. So we got, we got my Titans. Can I call them my Titans at this point? Absolutely. Okay, good. Versus the Chiefs at Arrowhead. It's going to be way different

than the last time they played. The last time these two teams played, we had doubts about the Chiefs, and the Titans were four and five. I want to say I took the Chiefs that first time around. I'm going to take the Titans. I'm going to start with you,

I feel when you look at these guys, I don't love either one, but if I had to take one of the underdogs, I would definitely lean more to Tennessee. They've just, they bought in, they've got this mentality. Henry's been an absolute ultra beast. The defense, I don't think, is getting enough credit because of how balanced they are and just how together they play. Nobody's ever seems to be out of place. They do it. I think a good job mixing up the coverages.

on the back end, well, they'll go pre-snap and then adjust on the fly. So the seven and a half is key. Now it's down to seven. Maybe you buy that up to seven and a half just to feel a little bit safer, knowing you have Tennessee. And we talked about last week, why we liked them last week? Because that style of play travels, man, and all the pressure. If Andy Reed and the Chiefs don't go to the Super Bowl here, man,

this is an all-timer. I think in a bad way. And now on the flip side, it's an all-time run for the Titans. When you look at the teams they've beaten. So I think Tennessee has the goods to keep it close, stay in the game, control the clock. Tanna Hill, I know everyone is making fun of the passing yards that he's done the last two weeks,

but he's done everything he's needed to do to keep his seat. Like they jumped out in front last week. What do they need to do? They just didn't give Henry the ball. close to more chains. Yeah. So I buy this up to seven and a half and I like, I like Tennessee here. This could, I mean, last week also you get in your head, how can you take the under and a Chiefs game? So that kind of worry, if I was going to pick it for under, that's, that's pretty dicey there. Yeah. Because if Tennessee does go to have the lead, Kansas City is just going to have that foot on the gas nonstop.

But I mean, it's not even close to how much better. Tennessee's secondary is than the Houston Texans. Yeah, listen, the Texans are awful on defense. It's one of the reasons I didn't trust them all year. It's one of the reasons I didn't really sweat when they got down. The Chiefs got down last week. The key here, I think, you know, you talk about Tannahill needing to throw for more yardage. He threw for 180, and they scored 35 points and beat him in a shootout.

Now, they needed some things to happen the first time they played. But this Tennessee team has had a short sample size the last couple years has had Kansas City's number. I know that it's been a couple years. Marriota was a difference there, you know, the pass off of, you know, to himself. They were down 21 at the half. That's in Kansas City's head a little bit. I'm just telling you how this stuff works. You know it as a football player.

For those of you listening, when you lose a playoff game, then you blow a 21-point lead, and then you lose to them earlier this season. I think you can make it a, we want revenge all you want, but it's hard to get revenge as a team that's favored. That's usually supposed to be the underdog. So I think that Tennessee's got the mental edge. I think I love the way they play, those guys on defense, especially if Chris Jones in there,

have got to be worried about Derek Henry, who after that wild card game, he towed the rock 35 times. History showed that the guys that do it, that in the wildcard game, don't get a bunch of touches or yards in the divisional round. He kept going. I don't think there's any reason he doesn't keep going this weekend. You burn the ships.

I'm also into buying a half point, but I think the Titans cover. And if they didn't have Derek Henry, as anybody would note, I'd be terrified in this bet, but I feel pretty good about it. And it's not just the off-tackle front-side stuff. They're going to make Frank Clark set the edge. It's also the backside three or the shade. guys have to do well playing off cup blocks, off the reach blocks, because Derek Henry

will one cut and punch that thing right up the fucking middle. And look out. If he gets in the second level, your best player on defense goes about 5'10 in Tyrant Matthew. So it's going to be a fun game. There were four or five lead changes the last time,

ton of yards, but you can't say, and I thought about this, I'm getting ready to watch this game. I've been watching a little bit. And by the way, Kansas City was banged up. and injuries, namely on the offensive line, especially with... No, it's all 22 for this pick?

Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. I got more time now. So the biggest thing for me is, if you want to say, well, Kansas City wasn't themselves when they played, they had a season high in yardage and lost.

So this is, this is, Mahomes looked. You got was the first game back from injury, too. It was, and the first possession looked that way because... He threw two picks damn near in the first five plays.

Now, also another thing I said, as they attack the edges really well. But I think that Tennessee, like you said, the street rats. I love that. Brable called them street rats. They're going to take over Arrowhead. There's going to be rats everywhere. And it's Cover City.

It might be a win for them. I know I've been riding them all playoffs. I feel better about them beating the Chiefs than I do about them beating the Ravens. And look what they just did. There's no doubt if they held off the MVP voting until after the playoffs, Derek Henry would be the MVP. Yeah, it's crazy. It's crazy. No.

Not a hot take there. I mean, it's not, I don't dislike the hot take. It's like a what if take. Yeah, it's a what if. I like that. The classification of takes. So Steve has the, the, Steve has the Niners,

minus seven in the NFC, and then you're buying the half point and getting it to plus seven and a half for the Titans. And I'm on the flip side in the NFC, and I agree with you on the AFC. Cool new game for the playoffs from Better America. It's called the NFL Playoff 10,000. $1,000 challenge.

You correctly pick the spread, the over-under, and a prop bet for all games this weekend, and you can win 10 grand. It's not that hard. I've made my picks already, so you can copy them and make some money. I haven't been right yet, so I don't know if that's true. Or you can pick your own and keep your pride. Either way, head over to Bet America and play their NFL playoffs, $10,000 challenge. Let's get after it and always bet responsibly.

We do have a little bit of MMA stuff as a curveball because we've got the McGregor-Sor-Sorone bet. this weekend. The super odds at Bet America have McGregor to win round one at plus 250 boosted from plus 185. What do you think about that fight? You watch fights? Yeah, yeah.

This is interesting. You got the most respected guy in the whole sport in Soroni. And then on the other side, you have everybody's favorite with the flamboyant style with Connor. I think it's really interesting how Connor's going into this fight knowing what's happened at press conferences and interviews

before this. You, you could see how much he respects Saroni. Soroni's the most respected guy in the sport. He has the most wins, most fights. The guy is an absolute classic. Right. But I will lean. Soroni has really always struggled coming out of the gates and fights.

And his losses, he's lost early. But he's a war dog mentality. He'll try it out last you and then, you know, make you submit in the later rounds or just win in points and just completely embarrass you and show. his his um his greater conditioning so with those odds i would take connor to win in the first round i think that's i think that's worth a shot yeah and i mean you could take uh serroney to win the fight on the other side but they're both plus money if you wanted to do that for a little bit but connor with knowing how precise he is and knowing how good he is at reading tendencies he's got

so much tape and serone wasn't he didn't look good in his last fight um you know he the clock is ticking. This is probably going to be his last fight ever, knowing that the paycheck he's going to get. So I just feel like if Connor, I mean, it's been a while, it's been over a year for Connor, but knowing, seeing him do it so many times, I take a shot at him and then if that, you know,

bounce it out the other way. Because Connor, we know, his endurance is not the best. He wants to go for that quick strike. So I can, I expect him to totally just, you know, foot on the gas that whole first round on throw. So you think that those odds are that way because it's been a year

off or I think it's hard because they know like I said they know how they respect the hell out of Soroni so if he were to get out of that first round I mean all if you could lie about it they're going it's going to be all Soroni I really believe

because how we've seen Connor not be himself as fights get later now the thing I like about Soroni and I don't have any real intel here is that he drinks beer oh yeah we had a mind with Van Pelt last night is an unbelievable interview

I'll send it to you because it's awesome awesome interview I'm going to be kind of torn but I think I'm going to I'm going to be pulling for for Seroni especially if it is his last fight

you know I love a good fight I don't keep up with this stuff hell I didn't know they were fighting until this week it's one it's one of those things when you're so buried in football then all of a sudden somebody on Monday is like hey you're watching a big fight this weekend

and I'm like oh I'm kind of excited I want to get in on that action, so I might bet some MMA this weekend. I'm not going to give out my pick because I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about, but Stanford Steve does. Yeah, watch out for Pettis also on the co-main event and Holly Holmes fighting too. She's a cheap price. She already beat the girl that she's fighting. So just keep those fine.

And if you're just, you know, you got a little pizza money and you're not sure who to take, take the underdog in the fights. Okay, great. You don't know the two guys, always take the other. These are jewels. I'm getting jewels dropped on me by Steve, and these are free jewels. This wasn't even on the itinerary, and Stanford Steve is offering you free jewels. So take this.

Oh, we're not talking about it. No, no, no, no, no. When somebody's dropping jewels, you're dropping some knowledge, you know? I don't mean the family jewels. Hopefully nobody gets hit in the jewels this weekend during the big fights, or on the field for that matter. So check it out. We got a great sports weekend. We got championship weekend.

We got our picks there. And you got the fight knowledge from Stanford, Steve. I'll get to my long shot. So this week's single long shot for me is going to be the Titans money line plus 270. Listen, last time they played, Titans won outright. They were at home. I know the Chiefs had some injuries. The Chiefs have been better since defensively and all that.

But also the Titans are a lot better. They were four and five when they met. My homes had just come off injury on the other side of things. but can't really make that excuse for the Chiefs. The Chiefs had a season high in yardage. There were four or five lead changes in the game. Chiefs ran 78 plays, still lost. I think Derek Henry continues to get his,

especially if Chris Jones is out. Those interior guys are really important, and on the other side of the ball, I give the edge to the interior guys for Tennessee who made life hell for the Baltimore offense. give me the Titans in this underdog street rat spot that they love Titans in Arrowhead to go get the win. You can find my long shots by heading to the super odd section of Bet America. Those lines, all of our lines are powered by Bet America.

Sponsor of this program, head over to Betamerica.com, download the Betamerica app, and let's get paid. Steve, thanks for joining us. Let me know when you're going to hang out again, too, buddy. Dude, a lot of fun. A lot of fun. making fun of us because we were sitting so close in that picture that a big cat posted we were sitting kind of close also i look little compared to i mean i am like two 30 right now or something i am not no but but i didn't realize i was such a small guy for those you out there stanford steve

is a hulking presence he's not just a great sports personality or a great former athlete he's a hulking fucking presence that's why he knows about fights don't fuck with stanford steve thanks for the pick, Steve. Love you, brother. All right, man. I love you. See you.