Green Light with Chris Long - NFL Proposed Coaching Hire Practices with Jim Trotter + Twitter Mailbag.

Episode Date: May 18, 2020

0:42 - Open and Last Dance Finale. 5:15 - Jim Trotter on Proposed NFL Coaching Hire Practices. 44:48 - Mailbag. Green Light with Chris Long: Subscribe and enjoy weekly content including podcasts, documentaries, live chats, celebrity interviews and more including hot news items, trending discussions from the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA, NCAA are just a small part of what we will be sharing with you. 🌍🏀🏈SUBSCRIBE NOW ⚾🏒⛰️ http://bit.ly/chalknetwork Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Monday morning, Greenlight Pod. I'm Chris Long. I'm going to talk NFL news. I'm going to have Jim Trotter on. He obviously was the guy who broke the big news this weekend about the proposal coming up on Tuesday involving NFL owners and hiring practices when it comes to minority coaches. Also a mailbag. You are probably like me. You're probably sad. Big sad. Yeah, Mondays are Mondays. Then it's a Monday in the pandemic. And then it's a Monday in the pandemic when the last dance. is over and now we have nothing.

We have absolutely nothing and it sucks. And I'm crushed, I'm with you. You know, last night I was thinking about units of sadness related to like sports fandom. Post-Super Bowl is one unit. How many units was that last night, realizing that the last dance was over? Point three, point five, like more than half a unit.

For me, it was probably more than half of a unit. That thing was magnificent. the entire damn near two months span that we all were just glued to the TV and ran to Twitter at the same time and enjoyed it. Like, it was awesome. And the sequences were great tonight. I'm going to save a lot of my commentary for Wednesday because I got a special guest coming on. Mike Tolan, accomplished sports producer, like when it comes to documentaries, movies. He's done a bunch of them.

He did radio. He did summer catch. Let's see. He did Hardwood Dreams, hardball, Coach Carter, like varsity blues. Guys done a shitload of stuff. He did a terrific job. They all did a terrific job on this thing.

I mean, in that time crunch, in the circumstance, especially the later episodes, the way they threw them together, like virtually. Shit, it's hard to do a podcast virtually. My producers are sitting here like on the, there and like yeah fuck yeah it's hard uh it's really hard to do a fucking documentary about michael jordan remotely during a pandemic geez louise um so great job mike tollen big part of it billy guy i'm excited to have him on uh i'll have him on wednesday i'll pick his brain

about not just last night but the entire series uh there's so much i want to ask him about uh but yeah the the steve purr sequence i thought was beautiful um brilliant and really sad all at the same time. It was up there for me. As far as the entire series was concerned, I also thought game six was great. And the flu game, everybody kind of knew it was food poisoning. I always thought to myself,

if you had the flu, wouldn't other guys have had the flu? Also, I heard it was like a shrimp pizza. five guys, one pizza. That story never ends well. And they should have known it. But yeah, I thought it was a magnificent end to a really great series. And I'm excited to have Mike on. So I've got a little bit of last dance coming up for you Wednesday.

And we're going to hit some NFL news. You know, obviously the big news this weekend had a lot to do with the hiring practices in the NFL. When it comes to minority coaches and football executives, the guy who broke this story is Jim Trotter. I'll have him on in a couple minutes. I, you know, I worked with him a lot when I was a player, you know, he would hit me up for a story or something. And I enjoyed talking to him. He's just a really straight up dude, honest, a lot of integrity and trustworthy. And, you know, for a player who turns into a podcaster to pick up the phone on a Sunday when he breaks a big story over the weekend, I text him, like, hey, when you come on my podcast? It's like,

within two minutes. Yeah, I'll be on. Sounds good. What time? Like six? Six is good. So that's the type of guy he is and it's cool to see it on the other end that he picks up the phone when I'm trying to hit him up or something.

So I look forward to talking to Jim and he's always very insightful. He knows a lot about this whole process, knowledgeable, knowledgeable guy. So also a mailbag. You know, one really outstanding question in this batch of real brain busters. So shout out to y'all, filling up my mentions with Wete. You know, this one has to do with teams that have never won a Super Bowl and the next three years. The three-year window for those 12 teams, who's got the best shot at changing the narrative for their franchises and who has the worst shot, who has absolutely no shot. There's a couple of those.

So I'll get into that on the tail end of this thing. But without further ado, let's get Jim Trotter on the line. So joining me now is Jim Trotter, a guy I have known for years, and now I get to call him up and ask him to be on my show. This is cool. How do you like the other side, by the way? Oh, dude, I was about to intro you with your long and illustrious list of accomplishments. It's cool, man. It's hard work.

As you know, I'm learning even more about the challenges, and booking is one of them. So I'm really appreciative that I hits you up this morning and I get a big timer on here. the guy that broke the story that I'm trying to trying to hit today. So lucky me. All good, man. My pleasure. So you are the guy that came out with this first. Obviously, the Rooney Rule has been effectively a failure the last 15 years, if you look at it.

Tides report, whatever you want to read, has come back with pretty negative things to say about where the league's hiring practices are at this juncture. You know, especially this year, I think with the five misses, if you look at it that way, three of the last 20 hires only have been coaches of color. We're at this impasse, and it looks like the league's trying to do something. What the hell is going on right now? And where did it come from? Well, first off, let's deal with the Rooney Rule issue.

A lot of people think that this is associated with the Rooney Rule, and it's not. The Rooney Rule is separate from this standpoint. the league can impose the Rooney Rule on clubs. So whatever changes it makes to enhance the Rooney Rule, it doesn't require a vote of the owners. And two of the things that are being considered and are expected to happen under the Rooney Rule enhancement is that now clubs are going to have to interview at least to a minimum of two head coaches or what they call primary football executive when a job comes open. And also they are now going to apply the Rooney Rule to coordinate. position. So, and again, that's separate from what we're about to talk about. The thing that's making news now is that the owner's meeting is Tuesday, and there are going to be two resolutions

that are going to be voted on that address diversity of hires, meaning for head coaches. And I'm going to call them GMs, but the league specifically outlines them as primary football executive. I think it's easier just to say GM. In English, I say GMs. I'm like, what the hell is the primary football executive? Exactly, exactly. So there'll be two resolutions voted on that are expected to be voted on there. The first one, which a lot of folks are in support of, it would remove a longstanding barrier that prevented assistant coaches from interviewing

for coordinator positions with other clubs if they were under contract. Well, now what this resolution says is that from the end of the regular season until March 1st, these assistants will now be able to interview with other clubs. Teams will not be able to block them. And that's huge from the standpoint, as you know, most head coaches have coordinator experience. Owners like that. And to get more minorities in that quote-unquote pipeline, it's important for them to have that coordinator experience. So this will remove a barrier.

So I expect that to pass. The other resolution then involves creating an incentive for clubs to hire minority GMs or head coaches. And the way it would work is if you hire a person of color to be your head coach and he is on staff going into a second year, your draft position in third round would climb six spots. Now, if you hired a GM and he is on staff beyond that first year, going into that second draft again, your third round pick would jump 10 spots. If you hired both a GM and a head coach in the same year, and they're on staff beyond that first year, your third round draft choice would jump 16 spots. So theoretically, say you're drafting at the top of the third round, you would move up into the middle of the second round if you hired both a minority head coach and GM in the same year.

And that's pretty controversial right now. It's an incredible departure from anything the league has ever done as far as it relates to this. Well, if the Packers had a black GM and a black and a black coach, they could reach up into the second round and grab a quarterback. And this is not even more. There you go. Yeah. So I'm looking at this. And obviously the lead here, at least on the internet, is the more sensational part of it, which is in my mind less likely to be passed.

I've seen this is one of the few things that if you're somebody who, and there are plenty of people. Unfortunately, otherwise we wouldn't have had this problem for the last, you know, 60 years in football. But if you're one of these people who do not like progress in this way, you're going to agree with a lot of the people who are pushing for progress as we talked about. This is one of the few issues, part two of this resolution that a lot of people on both sides of it seem to be agreeing. It's a bit much for different reasons, but part one. Okay. So we're talking about we'll get to part two. Part one seems like it's universally being lauded as a nice step in the right.

direction. Nobody likes that anti-tampering rule. There's some really negative outcomes there. The pipeline, you talked about it, coordinators, there's two in the league. I think two black OCs in the league, two black coordinators of color. By the way, only two GMs of color. There's the quarterback coach discrepancy is huge. Only two and one offensive line coach. You know, and people look at this. We're addressing the top of the process. process, this is a top-down problem and the entire pipeline, especially offensively, we had that run of defensive coordinators getting hired for a while, black defensive coordinators, but that's gone. Like that trend is gone. Now it's the boy wonders. And, you know, the young coordinators,

what do they look like? They're all white, you know, because this pipeline has been what it has been. So one, do you think everybody's on board with that? And two, do you think that they could, if this passes, expand this to the executive side of things because GMs yield a lot of, or wield a lot of power. It will apply to personnel people as well who are not primary executives. So my understanding, if I recall it right, it's the GM, the assistant GM, obviously they would be off limits under this, but anyone under them would also be allowed to interview for positions. So the DPP, the assistant GM, he or she can't interview at this point. This doesn't offer them the protection at this point.

As I understand it, yes. But anyone underneath that would be allowed to interview for a GM position. So has that part been pretty universally well received? Yeah, I think I have talked to a couple of teams who have told me, look, this resolution number one, as far as coordinator position would hurt us. Because of the way that they've outlined their staff, some teams have co-coordinators, which means they're going to have to get rid of one, they're going to have to demote one in title because you can't, you're not going to be able to have co-coordinators, so to speak. So they talk about how, how it, from a football standpoint,

they believe it will hurt them. But what these teams have said to me for the greater good, they support it because they believe it's important to get minorities in the pipeline and to give them these opportunities. And the thing that's interesting, about this provision, this resolution is that included in it, it says that now if there is a disagreement between the two clubs over whether or not it is a legitimate coordinator position, because you know how teams play with titles to get folks on staff. If there is a disagreement, the commissioner then will hear it and his decision will be binding and non-reviewable. So that's important from this standpoint that the commissioner, the language in this resolution

says that he is injecting himself into this. And if there is a disagreement, he's going to decide it on whether or not it is a, what they use the term bonafide, and I use the term legitimate, credible position, and his decision will be, it'll be final. You know, there'll be no review, no appeal, no anything. It will stand, whatever he says. And that's important. So let's get to the second part, which is the part that I think made everybody,

everybody focus in, which is the draft pick part. Number one, and I don't know if people have asked this question, but I think at the crux of this, whether or not you think it's disrespectful or whatever you think the tone of this proposal is, I look at it and I say, how many teams are going to change the course of their organization for a third round pick?

Right, right. No, it's a valid, I've heard that from folks. folks. The thing that's so, the thing that I've heard from folks, I'm trying to keep my opinion out of this because obviously I'm reporting on it. So I'm trying to stay right down the middle and just relay what I am hearing from folks that I interview. I have talked to, I would say, at minimum, a dozen either, and these are all minorities, either head coaches, former head coaches, coordinators, assistant coaches, you name it.

who are involved in the process who are either aspiring to reset level. And I should include personnel as well, who are either aspiring to reach those levels or who are there. And I've only had two who have even passedly said, I'm okay with it, only from the standpoint that the league is trying to push something forward to do something. Everyone else that I have talked to have been adamantly against this. And it's interesting because on the one hand, what they say is, look, for the league, this is a bad look. Because in essence, what you're saying is we've got to bribe these owners to hire minorities for these positions of authority. And then they're saying from a personal standpoint, it's insulting because if we were to get the job, then people are going to look

at us and say, the only reason we got it is because of the color of our skin. And you're going to ignore all of our qualifications, our resumes, our history, et cetera. So I know for a fact that there's at least one coach who was called his owner and said, you cannot vote for this. You know, this would be an insult to me personally. And that's why I think it's going to be fascinating to see where this goes. Because the way this was created, as I understand it to this point is, the league's diversity committee started having these conversations. And they brought in, from the outside to contribute to the group. And my understanding is that Tony Dungey and Ozzie Newsom were also part of this group.

And I reached out to Tony and asked him, you know, do you support this? And what he said to me is that he couldn't comment on it because he had not seen the final proposal. All he would say is that he was part of the group that made recommendations and that he feels the league has gotten to a point where maybe drastic measures have to be taken. But again, having said that, that is not him saying to me he support this final resolution or at least the resolution that was sent to the club at this point. So I don't know if by Tuesday they're going to tweak the resolution. I don't know if they get the sense that it will be voted down, if they will table it.

There's any number of things that could happen. All I know is that at this point, what I've heard from teams that I have talked to, what I've heard from minority coaches that I have talked to, is that they don't feel this is the right way to go with this issue. They agree. Everyone agrees it's a problem. It needs to be addressed, but they don't believe that this is the right step to take. Yeah, I've heard that. I've heard some of the comments. I heard the Anthony Lane comments. I believe it was. And yeah, it's a tough, it's a bind to be in. You want to see the ball advance and people are just waiting to see the ball advance. But this seems like one of those situations where you can try to do the right thing, if that's what the motivation is. And miss the and miss the, and miss the. And miss the. And miss the. ball. So I get it. I also think that there is an angle of it like, okay, I mentioned the lack of incentivization in the third round. If you move up and you move up until there is a real incentive, you're basically going to be going, like what would make you change the course of your football

franchise? It's probably a first round pick and it's probably a quarterback, which, you know, that is unfair. It's unfair to everybody else in the league at that point. And then everybody's going to be resentful of the whole process. And, you know, it's a, You look at somebody like Bruce Ariens. Okay, Bruce Ariens has hired a lot of minority coaches at a really unprecedented rate in today's game. Joe Judge, if a Joe judge, who everybody wants to be a head coach, he gets hired. He can't control the fact that the Belichick tree is more heavily weighted. Or maybe you have one of these guys that looks at the resume of special teams,

head coaches that matriculate to the head coach position. He wouldn't have been who I hired, but he's who I got hired. And I like Joe, but he hires his first five coaches he hires four out of five are minorities. So he's trying to do the right things. Let's say a division rival leapfrogs him because they hired a black coach. You know, he's going to be, to a coach like that, he might be saying,

well, shit, dude, like, I can't win. And then to the black kid coaches out there who are looking to have a better opportunity, they're saying this is insulting. So everybody is looking at this situation as, you know, it could get kind of sloppy. And while I look at it and I say, like, if Rogers really, or the source of this is really trying to to advance the ball. I think it's admirable.

But, you know, it sounds like the reviews are in and they're pretty mixed, to say the least. Where is it coming from, really? I mean, is it, is it this offseason? Is it Rooney's comments? Is it, you know, just the, it was it Wilkes and Vance Joseph and then Cliff, like that little flurry of firings and hirings? Like, what, we've been on this thing for 20 plus years. Like, what are we doing? Why did it take this long? And I think you just spoke to it, the fact that it's been 20 plus years and we're seeing the numbers go in the opposite direction now. We've got four head coaches of color, which matches a 17-year low for the league. We're in 2020.

Why should we, you know, what I'm hearing is why should we be now at a point where we're matching a 17-year low in terms of diversity in the league? We've got 32 teams and we've got two black general managers. in a league again, which is 70% black. So, for instance, I was on the phone today with Carmen Policy, the former executive with the 49ers back during their heyday under Bill Walsh and whatnot. And I wanted to get some background from him on, you know, the Bill Walsh Minority, or they call it now the Bill Walsh Diversity Coaching Fellowship. It started back in 1987.

And I said, I just want to get a feel for what prompted that. And you could make a case that back in that day, that was a radical. idea. You know, just as this draft pick compensation or upgrade is a radical idea now. And he said, Bill felt that you had to have diversity in whatever you were going to do to be successful. And as more black players were coming into the league, that you had to have representation in the coaching ranks. And he even felt to some degree in the executive rank to show that all those relationships could work, you know, and that you had qualified people, good people, all with different backgrounds, and you made it work. He didn't want all black. He didn't want all white. He felt

diversity was important. And so he went to the organization and said, I want to be able to bring in college coaches, high school coaches, and former players during training camp to let them see how we do things, our philosophies, our practices, all of that, so that hopefully it gives them greater exposure and greater background and experience to be able to go out and get a job in the NFL as an assistant coach. So I think what you're looking at now is the league is saying we've done everything we've done everything we feel we can do. We've got minority fellowships for coaches. We've got the summit in the off season where we bring in minorities for networking and empowerment to try and climb the ranks. We talk to owners all the time about. We talk to owners all the

time about this. So the league is saying it's trying to address all of this and none of it is working. So now they're at a point, I think, where some of them feel we've just got to do something drastic. Whether it's right or wrong, yes, it's drastic, but we have to do something because what we're doing now is not working. And my fear here, and this is personal, is that the league always talks about unintended consequences. And the one thing we know about owners, particularly owners who have this type of wealth. When you try and tell them what to do, they typically will go in the opposite direction.

And my fear is that if you push too hard and put them under that spotlight in this way, that they're going to say, you know what, I ain't hiring a minority because I don't want to deal with everything that's going to come with that. This is not in the social circle of, you know, these ridiculously wealthy white dudes. And also you're telling them what to do with their babies.

So to your point, they're the type of guys that are going on a different direction. So what do you do about the ownership part? What do you do about the next time a team is very rarely? I mean, they're very rarely ever up for grabs. These teams are passed on with regularity. Like, how do you try to get more diversity in ownership? Well, here's part of the problem, Chris, and you know this. The way the rules are now set up to purchase a team, let's say I wanted to purchase one.

and what the Panther sold for I think two and a half billion. So just through sheer inflation, let's say the next NFL franchise being conservative is going to sell for $3 billion. Under the league rules, I've got to write a check for 30% of that franchise when I purchased it. How many people in this world can write a check for $900 million? And that's not to say that you have assets worth that, is to say you're going to write a check for 900 million. There aren't many who have that.

So right away, the field of prospective minority candidates to own a team is very limited. So unless the league is going to change its rules, I don't see how that happens. Because it was funny to me when the Panthers were for sale and everybody was talking about Daisy and Puffy and Steph Curry and these people buying the Panthers. And I'm like, these are rich people, but they are not wealthy people in terms of being able to write checked for $900 million. Yeah. That's something that, you know. That's a hell of a down payment.

And yeah, yeah, the field is shrunk significantly. You know, we, what about, what about transparency in the process? Because that's something when you talk to coaches to say is missing still. Okay, like we know we have to, we have to interview a coordinator of color, a candidate of color. But, you know, we don't have to say when or who, you know, the, you know, the, But you look at it, there's a couple issues there. One, not having enough information about what transpired.

Two, like the GM thing in Houston or even TEPA's hiring of rule. I mean, these are situations. It's hard to litigate this because how can you assign somebody's intent when they're not saying it outright that I've decided on that rule before the process starts? Or if I'm in Houston, I want Nick Casario to be my GM. I'm going to interview two candidates to suffice the rule, and then I'm not going to hire a single GM. How do you fix that? These are like gray areas.

Yeah, I don't have the answer for that. When the league came out and said that the Raiders were credible and interviewing minority candidates before hiring John Gruden, that was the worst kept secret in the NFL that John Gruden was going to be hired as the Raiders coach. So, you know, I go back and forth with minority coaches. and say, why do you take these interviews? You know, if you know Coach X already has that job,

and the thing I get from them is twofold. I either get, one, the experience is good for us to go through the process, or I get, if we don't do it, we'll be blackballed, and seen as difficult, and there won't be an interview next time with another club. So these coaches almost feel like they're caught in the middle of this thing. So I don't have an answer for your question about transparency. They have to notify the Lee who interviews for these positions, but they don't have to notify us, meaning the media. And the thing that's so sad here is that as Carmen Policy said to me about Bill Walsh, you're not doing this.

You're not hiring minority candidates for the sake of just hiring a minority candidate. It's because it's good business. It's because it makes you better, hopefully. in various different ways. So I always get a kick out of people say, why can't we just hire the best person and leave it at that? Wow.

Well, but wait, the irony is... You don't have to say it. I know you... Okay. I'll fucking say it, okay? Since World War II, there have been 18 head coaches of color. 13 got three full seasons. 10 made the playoffs, 2-1 Super Bowls,

four appeared in Super Bowls. How's that batting percentage? I'm not saying black coaches are better than white ones, but with that sample size, I would go back to that person and say, well, if it's a meritocracy and you would certainly flip those numbers the other way if they suited your argument, then we need to be hiring more black coaches. And that's without the obvious, which is that like, lock rooms are 70% black. What's wrong with having? It doesn't even need to be a representative number of black coaches. You don't need to have 70% black coaches. Let's just do better than 12% or 18% or.

whatever it is, you know, because a lot of people... Yeah, go ahead. Go ahead. No, and also don't keep moving the bar, the target. So, for instance, you look at Andy Reid, one of the best coaches in the history of this game. So people are going to want to hire off of his treat. I get it. So you hired Doug Peterson, who five years earlier had been a high school coach.

You hire Matt Nagy, you know, and then now the person who follows the two of them in the exact same position, and one year has a quarterback who is the league MVP, and the next year has one. who is the Super Bowl MVP and their five openings in a given year and he doesn't get one of them. I'm just going to say this.

The only thing I heard when I was persistent about that was, oh, he didn't interview well. Okay, first off, first off, I know Doug Peterson, and Doug Peterson is a tremendous football coach. I can guarantee you his interviews were not awesome. Like, Dougie has as much ADD as me, okay? Like, I cannot see Doug in a suit in an interview.

Doug is a fucking football coach. And Eric, you can't tell me that with all the young offensive minds that people are bringing in, if all was right in this world, and I've talked about this at length, Jacksonville is going to be hiring a coach to pair with Trevor Lawrence next year. It's just how it's going to happen. I want to see Eric Bianami and Trevor Lawrence. This is what I want to see. But I don't think it's going to happen because they can continue to hide behind these very subjective observations that nobody can prove. I mean, short of taping these interview processes to...

Which they do, by the way. No, but disseminating them to the media and to fans, which they can't do because there's a number of issues there. But, you know, short of doing that, it's going to be really, like, you're always going to be able to hide behind, well, there was just one thing. Okay, well, Eric did something in college. Okay, well, there were a number of coaches that I know about in the league that have, you know, things that they did in the past that they regret when they were

young kids, like, or college kids. Like, who gives the shit? Like, what are we talking about here? But, Chris, let me go one step further. And Tony Dungey made this point to me last year before a piece that I did on the subject. And he told me, he said, the NFL needs to have a course for owners on how to hire coaches. So what did he mean by that? When the season ended this year and there were these openings and we were in the studio

and the host said to me, okay, Jim, who should be considered? for these jobs. And I said, that right there is the fundamental problem. That should not be the first question. The first question, if you were an owner, is what am I looking for in a head coach? Do I want someone with experience or do I want someone fresh? Do I want someone on offense, defense or special team? Do I want someone who is a delegator? Do I want someone who's hands on? Do I want someone who communicates well? Or do I want someone where that doesn't matter? He just motivates well? All these are the kind of things that you have to answer before you get around to saying, who should I be interviewing? But what owners typically do is say, okay, who's good out there? Well, if you don't have a foundation

philosophy of what you want out of a coach, how are you ever going to see? And that's why on average since 2000, we're seeing what? Seven coaches fired every year on average. So in essence, you are turning over, what is that? I'm not a math major, but you're turning over a hell of a lot of your coaches frequently, which should tell you as a business model what you're doing is not working, so maybe you should try something else. And that's the thing. So I always say, you know, Tony would say, Mr. Rooney always knew. He wanted, you know, a young, talented coach, preferably on defense. And he would go that route in terms of interviewing people for the job. And clearly they've done something right.

And over the last, what, 50 years, they've had three coaches. So if you don't, and the other thing he said, and this is important too, is you have to be patient. You have to give them time to implement their system, to create their culture, those sorts of things. And I just fear that today owners are caught up in sort of this fantasy football culture where you should be able to go from last to first in one year and be able to sustain it. And I felt bad for a guy like Steve Wilkes who goes in Arizona. And he's the last coach hired in that cycle. I think there were eight coaches hired. He's the last one hired.

So he can't put together the staff that he won. You just got to get through that first season. You've got a rookie quarterback there after Bradford, you know, goes through his situation. And you end up getting fired after that. You haven't had a chance to implement anything. And that's not to come down on the bidwills or Steve Kahn or anyone. It's just the reality of what coaches is going to turn something around in one year that it's necessarily going to sustain itself. No, no one.

And there are instances, I'm sure, where you could serve by watching a guy working here that he's just not the one. But with that track record that we have in a league, it's, you know, a Steve Wilkes situation. That's why it was so inflammatory to a lot of people is especially, and I mentioned this, you know, the year of the Steve and the band stuff. And it's followed by the rush of these young guys. You don't look like they have to shave yet. No, let me give you another example. So what? Every team wants to win, right?

That's the objective. So Jim Caldwell takes over in Detroit. They've had one playoff appearance in 14 years before he gets there. He leads him to three winning seasons in four years, wins at least nine games in each of those three. They go to the playoffs twice in his four years, which is one more than they win in the previous 14 years. And he gets fired because the GM says, we need to take the next step, goes out and

hires his buddy from New England. And now they've had a total of nine wins over the past two years. So I'm trying to understand from just a business standpoint, tell me how you justify firing Jim Caldwell, bringing in another guy who wins only nine games over two years, and you're patient with him, but you fire Jim Caldwell. No, it doesn't make a lot of sense. And Jim is definitely, even in a ridiculous pool of examples, an anomaly. I mean, he is, that's, the Jim Colwell thing is still confusing to me.

I looked at the hires this year, and I, you know, as I mentioned, when it was Joe, Judge, I got it, you know, like people are confused. He's a special teams coach. He's getting the Belichick tree bump. I get the confusion there. I get the confusion with rule. Although college coaches, you never know what you're going to get. The Stefansky thing, I thought, I felt bad for one guy with Stephansky.

because he had been in Minnesota longer than anybody in Minnesota. I mean, he looks younger than he is. Everybody loves him from the players that he coaches to the other coaches that he coaches with. And so I thought he was the one guy that like, you know, it was kind of the same thing with Shanahan because he had the nepotism thing and he had like he looks 17. But the guy had been grinding, you know, for a long time.

And even his dad was like, hey, listen, you've got to get a coordinator job elsewhere. You're not going to work for me and jump tag coach. You know, so I think the tough part is, is it's not only really hard and primarily the whole focus here should be getting more opportunities to black coaches and coaches of color. But there's a lot of other people who are getting just shit on. And they're actually decent coaches because of this perpetual cycle.

Well, I think one of the issues it has to be addressed, and I don't know how you address it, is the nepotism in the league. Because what you see now is a lot of the older white coaches, their sons are being brought along, and they're jumping the lines, so to speak. And how do you deal with that? because we know there are franchises that will want to hire these older white coaches who have been successful in the past as either a coordinator or position coach. And they say the only way I'm coming is if you bring my son along on staff.

And so there aren't many of us who can say that. Yeah. You see it all the time. I mean, and I did a pod on this around the time they hired Stefanski because it was kind of right in the middle of all this. And there were a few things I think I hit on. I forget it was the pipeline for sure. I mean, we talked about the pipeline.

It was the ownership class, which is going to be the hardest one to change. But then there's the nepotism aspect of it. It's who you know. And a lot of people scoff at that because my dad's a pro football Hall of Famer. I have to remind some of these folks because they don't do a lot of critical thinking that I had to get 14 sacks in the ACC to get drafted. So like the difference is that when you're talking about players, not only is it, you know, it's football and coaching contrasted. But with football, we all play in a standardized system where my production can stand out. My tape can be graded on the same standard that you're grading player X's tape.

With coaches, there's no standardization of the process with which that you learn to be a coach. They pool from everywhere. There are coaches that got never taught how to do the same things that McVeigh or Shanahan got taught how to do from an early age because he had access to the quarterback room or time with the coordinator. Like it just doesn't make sense. I mean, the Scott Turner thing in Carolina, okay? Yeah, it's an uncomfortable subject. But Rivera and Norv, you know, favors and favors and favors.

And all of a sudden you got a guy who Cam, I hear, didn't like in Carolina. And damn near derailed that relationship is the coordinator in Washington now. So like, how do you stop that? I have no idea. And not that all these coaches are bad coaches. I've played with some really good coaches that had coaches kids. and they were on the staff and their damn good coaches, but it becomes really hard to evaluate.

It's a great question, and I don't have the answer for that either. I'll never forget going back to a charges situation when the team was still in San Diego and I was working for the newspaper there, and Marty Schadenheimer had just gone 14 and 2, and they lost to the Patriots in the playoffs that year. And both coordinators were leaving to take, head job.

And Marty says he wants to bring in his brother to be the defensive coordinator. And Spanos tells him, the owner tells him, you know, I have a rule in theory. I don't like siblings on the same staff. And I don't like family members on the same staff. Even though he had given in to him when they hired Marty to get Marty, Marty was able to bring his son, Brian, with him. So anyway, Spanos holds firm on that. And he says, hey, I'm leaving going to the Pro Bowl.

I want you to think about who you want to bring in. And let's talk about it when I get back. Where he gets back and Marty says, yeah, I want to bring in my brother. And long story short, he fired Marty right there. And so to me, that could be an owner issue where an owner says, you know what? I'm just not in favor of nepotism. And therefore, if you're on my staff, we're not going to have it. But again, it's like we always say production has its privileges, just like with a player.

It's no different in coaching. If there's a coach out there that you feel is really talented, a lot of times you're going to give in to things that you might not with others. And for a time, that was a case to initially get Marty. But finally to keep them, they were ready to move on. They said, no, we're not going to do it. So maybe that's the answer that owners have to get involved on that. It might have to be. And to your point, the nepotism thing, you know, and you didn't.

say this, but it only goes one way. I mean, from the examples that I've heard, you know, like, okay, Doug Williams. Okay, Doug's been really outspoken on this thing. Doug is also an iconic figure in not only football history, but as far as black quarterbacks are concerned, I mean, he is a legend. And he's trying to get his son in football, okay? He's calling everybody in the league from what I hear. And first off, they're not picking up to get him to get him in the building, but then when he has the request that he wants his son in the quarterback room, just as a quality control guy, and you know how easy it is to get a quality control position for your kid, people are hanging up effectively. They're saying, well, sorry, you can't get in the quarterback

room. Well, let me say this to you on that point. One of the provisions that's being talked, will be talked Tuesday at the owner's meeting. If I understand now, there will be a quality control position for minority, and that person has to be in the quarterback room. So that's not out there publicly yet, I don't believe, but I'm told that that's something that is going to happen going forward, that all 32 teams have agreed to this. So Doug or someone else won't have that problem going forward. Well, that's big. I mean, there's a lot to, there's a lot to tackle, and it is a moving target. It seems to be, you know, it's, you think you're, you're making progress. maybe five, seven years ago and then we're going backwards.

So I hope they figure it out. By the way, by the way, props to Sean Payton for hiring DJ. Yeah, exactly. I was going to say that Sean was the one who scooped him up. And, you know, listen, this is not, the coaches are not a monolith. They're not all, and owners are not a monolith. I mean, like, they're not all actively, consciously blocking the road for black coaches. but the system has been inherently stacked against black coaches.

I know some people listen to this, Bob might be scoffing right now. Like, well, I'll prove it. You know, I'm like, okay, well, then you haven't been listening. So, you know, just find something else to listen to. But I look at it and I look at the college pipeline too. Is there anything that the NFL has implored the college pipeline for the college coaches or, you know, athletic directors to do because there's 10, 11 black coaches in college football out of 100 and whatever schools in 1A ball.

Yeah, but here's some of the irony there. So let's go back a couple of years ago when Alabama and Clemson played from National Championship, and it was Tua against Trevor. Both offensive coordinators in that game were African-American. So you're telling me then that year in the NFL, there were seven or eight opening, head coaching opening. And all the talk is about wanting young,

offensive-minded wizards, right? So if you've got, at the highest level of college football, two coordinators who are both working with quarterbacks who are projected to be possibly number one picks in the draft, I'm not saying you have to hire them, but wouldn't you at least interview them to pick their brain? Neither one of those guys got an interview that year. And even worse,

Michael Loxley, who at that time was Alabama's offensive coordinator, now the head coach of Maryland. He tells me a story that he had been in college football, working with either quarterback as a quarterback's coach or as an offensive coordinator or a head coach for 10 straight years. 10 straight years, he decides he wants to try and get in the NFL. What was he told? You need to go do an internship to expose yourself to teams.

And you know what he did? He humbled himself and he went and he did. an internship with a Denver Broncos. So what kind of slap in the face is that that somebody could spend a decade working with quarterbacks as a coach, a coordinator, or a head coach also calling plays in a national championship game. And when he's ready to try and come to the NFL, they tell him, you need to go do an internship.

Yeah, that's wild. It's got to be maddening. I talked to some coaches that called it, you know, one coach called it, quote, an eerie force. You know, another said it's really disheartening. It's, it's, it makes you want to sometimes quit. It's like, you know, the ceiling is just there and there's no way around it. I hope that, I hope they figure something out. I think, you know, a lot of people have expressed the sentiment that, you know, the draft pick thing would be an overreach.

I agree with that. But I hope that everything else they throw in this provision goes on. long way and I hope they keep rolling. Jim, thank you so much for joining us, ma'am. No, you know, anytime I can help, I'm here, just call. I appreciate everything you did for me, not just for me, but all the media, for being one of the stand-up guys. So I'm more than happy to help. Shit, man, I'm one of you guys now, so here we go. So I'll be getting you up more. Thanks a lot, Jim. I appreciate you. You got it, brother. Anytime. So that was Jim Trotter. He's always great. And I have a mailbag. One big question.

So the winner, so to speak of today's mailbag, a reminder that in the last few weeks we implemented a protocol where if you have the best mailbag question, there's a lot of good ones to choose from. So if yours didn't get picked, stay at it. And we might roll some of them over into the next pod. I have a surplus of great questions to answer. If you get the prize, your prize is to be complimented on this show. And Ezekiel Dupree. at Ezekiel underscore D-U-P-R-E-Y. It's an interesting spelling of your last name,

but you didn't control that. Your profile picture looks to be of a dog. It's a boxer. It's a beautiful dog. It's running in the grass. If that's your backyard, let me take a moment to say it is flawlessly manicured. So maybe that's not a full minute of compliments,

but it's damn close. Zeeke, thanks for the question. Your question read, of the 12 teams to never win the Super Bowl, which one has the best chance to break through in the next three years? This would have been a fun question to try to nail in a trivia sense because

there's a few of them here that are pretty damn good franchises and have never won a ring. Franchises that I think of as historic, obviously some are historic for the wrong reasons, but they're not all franchises you think of as bottom dwellers. Going down the list, you have Tennessee, Cleveland, Houston, Buffalo, Atlanta, Arizona, Detroit, Chargers, Bengals, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Carolina.

A bunch of teams have not won a Super Bowl. That's why it's so hard to win. I mean, it's insane to me that in the history of this league, and some of these are more like 90s expansion teams, these guys and the Eagles before 2017 never won a ship. So we're going to talk about the window for the next three years of these franchises. Who's got the best shot to change that reality? Who has a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy? ranking this thing, I'm going to go from the teams that have the least opportunity the way I see it over the next three years to become champions for the first time in franchise history and we'll go all the way down to one.

And that's the team that might surprise you and a team that I think actually has a relatively decent opportunity to at least appear in a Super Bowl in the next three years. So we'll start with 12. It's Jacksonville. Okay. I talked about this. They're a team with a bridge guy. their bridge guy looks much different to me than Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina. He's the other bridge guy of these 12 teams at the quarterback position.

No disrespect to Garner, Minshu, I don't see it. And I would love to be on his highlight tape in 10 years saying that I didn't see it. And I'd love it if he had two, three rings on his finger, on his fingers. But I just don't see it happening. And I think after this year, they're going to be looking at Trevor Lawrence. I think that they did a good job in the draft this year, but the longer you take half measures to fixing this thing, the longer you're going to be wasting that window. And the whole thing fell apart. The window was wide open just a few years ago.

So they are in a rebuild, but you've got some nice young players. Let's not waste them. They're going to need an infusion of quarterback play into that franchise. Now, this conversation that I'm about to have here with Jacksonville will apply to Sincy and the Chargers as well, so keep that in mind. But rookie quarterbacks, let's say they tanked this year and best case scenario, Josh McDaniels becomes available. Eric B. Enemy becomes available. You pair a Trevor Lawrence with a hot shot offensive coordinator. But to win by year two, and that's talking about the ultimate prize here, he'd have to join the likes of Big Ben, Kurt Warner.

Brady, Russell Wilson. Those are the guys who have won within their first two years of suiting up for their team coming out of the draft. And if you notice, there's only one first round pick. And that's Big Ben. Now, Big Ben, who won that Super Bowl in Detroit against the Seahawks 2110 back when I was in college, you know, had a quarterback rating of like 22 in that game. He was not the reason they won. But out of that group, he's the only first round.

pick to win a Super Bowl within his first two years. Now, I didn't go to three years. I know there might be some people who won in three years, but I just know that as it applies to Trevor Lawrence, we're going to have to wait a year if best case scenario for Jacksonville, he falls to them, or they fall to him, rather. They're going to have to do that for all intents of purposes with this exercise within two years. And I don't know. I think it's a tall order. A lot of those franchises were pretty established, the ones that I just mentioned. Forget all the hypothetical QB talking Jacksonville, how do you blow this thing up at the end of the year? Because you will blow it up, but how do you blow it up cleanly when your son is kind of in charge of football? I mean, that's

going to be interesting. So the Chargers at 11, I'm going to put them at 11. And again, no disrespect to a roster that is fairly talented for landing a top five, six pick at quarterback. They're kind of in that zone where if you hit on a quarterback and you're like six and ten, you're not a terrible team. You need a quarterback, Philip left, they could be good fast. I'm just saying that to win a Super Bowl and they could be competitive of the two rookies, I'm looking at this as a less likely scenario. For all the reasons we just listed, but also, you know, I don't see it happening in Kansas City's division that quickly.

And remember everything I just talked about with Jacksonville and first rounders as quarterbacks, it just doesn't happen often that fast. The defense is very good. I mean, like, the defense is going to be scary this year, but can they get over the hump that quick with Justin Herbert? I don't know. Now, I can, and this is going to be a little bit fucked up because I think they might deserve to be higher on this list. I'm going to go to Lions. I love Matt Stafford.

I think they can actually make a little bit of a run. They'd have to win their division. The cream would have to rise to top there because everybody else is kind of going the other way in that division. If you get a healthy Matt Stafford back this year, your defense gets better, and Matt Patricia. does his best work. You could see them make the playoffs and make a little run there. Listen, it's Detroit. I don't need to jinx them.

I don't want to jinx them by putting them higher up my list. I'd love to see them win. All three teams got worse than that division. And when Matt went out hurt last year, they were towards the top in most statistical categories. When it came to offense, also everybody knows about those really tough games. They lost and tied early in the year. And with that team, a lot of times when you're on a football team, and you get behind the eight ball quick,

it feels like you can't get that, that monkey off your back. I mean, the tie to Arizona was shameful. And then, you know, the way they lost that Green Bay game early in the year at Green Bay with the hands of the face, straight flowers. If you're a Lions fan,

you felt like you got the short end of the stake, but what else is new? I think they have an opportunity to be better next year and competitive, but I'm not going to put them high on the list because I don't want to jinx them. At nine, I'm going to go Sinci. Okay, first round,

quarterback again, the whole Big Ben conversation. This is of the two quarterbacks, the one that far and away people think has an opportunity to be the better pro. Some people think he's going to be an all pro. If that's the case, the sky is the limit for them. It's Cincinnati. Again, you can put them higher. But I don't want to be unfair and, you know, an unproven commodity give them an opportunity to win in a three-year window right now. With Big Ben, you look at it, two years before he showed up, they were 10, 5, and 1. Okay, that team had good bones. Tommy Maddox at quarterback and good bones from a roster standpoint.

It was a damn good football team. Ironically about Big Ben as a sidebar conversation when they drafted in the year before to secure their draft spot, I believe they lost week 17, 13, 10, an overtime game. The teams that needed a quarterback next in the draft, well, the team actually was Buffalo, and they picked it 22. The Steelers picked it 11. So that year, had they actually won that game, week 17, that meaningless overtime loss to the Ravens that actually helped them secure Big Ben.

Had they won it, the bills, I think, in the Jets would have leaprogged them. And the bills took Lee Evans, I believe, right after Big Ben was taking 11. At 22, they took J.P. Lossman. So imagine, in an alternate universe, I need Dave Damashek for this, but I think I could be wrong. I don't know if the tiebreaker would demand something totally different, but had they won that game, Week 17, you might be looking at Big Ben in a Buffalo Bill's uniform.

I don't know if that's founded at all. I glanced at it today. It's a crazy sidebar. But again, it's relevant because I wouldn't say since he has the good bones. I mean, when you're shopping for a house, you want a house with good bones. Pittsburgh was well built. They had a Hall of Fame coach. Taylor, he's unproven.

You know, you've got some good things going on in that roster, but it's not as bad as people think when people looked at Andy Dalton's tenure, that Marvin Lewis era. Cincinnati has not been terrible for quite some time other than last year. They were in the playoffs a good bit. So there's a few remnants there, but it's a fixer-upper. And it's, again, disrespectful overall to the conversation to put them up towards the top because I think Joe Burroughs

going to be good. But I think there actually could be a coaching change within the next three years and the clock might have to restart. I think Joe Burroughs going to be just fine. Carolina at 8. Okay, so is Teddy the man? That's the big question. He's the second of the two bridge quarterbacks that we've talked

about here. I mean, we agree that Teddy's a bridge quarterback. I love Teddy. Everybody loves Teddy. But is he a guy that if you have your pick of litter, you're going to snag him every, I hypothetical free agency period. I don't know about that. Also, there's three Hall of Fame quarterbacks in division. I'd say it's going to be a tough one for them to turn the corner.

Maybe in two years, if they can build, they can kind of position themselves to be right there for the exodus. And that could be a la Buffalo situation where they're looking around the division and saying, okay, maybe Atlanta, maybe New Orleans, and maybe Tampa, they're all starting over because quarterbacks are aging in that division. That's an older a division when it comes to quarterbacks. And also is Joe Brady, Sean Payton. That's the big question. Joe Brady did a terrific job at LSU.

He's there for a reason. He was in New Orleans. That system that he's going to implement is the system that Teddy thrived in last year. But, you know, if he is Sean Payton, he'll be gone quick. And then who is Teddy? Okay, so you lost Luke Keekly at the same time on the the defensive side of the ball, there's a lot of turnover going on there, as there is, any time a new regime starts up.

And when it comes to Matt Rule, an interesting conversation is, okay, how about coaches that turn the corner quick? Since 2000, I look at these coaches that were hired getting to the Super Bowl within three years. You know, in 2000, Brian Billick goes from 8 and 8 to 14 and 2 and wins the Super Bowl, obviously. But ironically, he is an offensive good. He was in Minnesota before. He's known for his offense, and they win on the heels of defense. And they did win with a bridge quarterback and a historic defense, but I only see one of those things in Carolina.

Belichick in 2001. Again, you had kind of the act of God with Tom Brady falling into their laps via an injury to Drew Bletsso. But again, that team had good bones. And, you know, I'm not saying that they'd never win a ring. but Tom falling into Bill's lap was good luck early on. It was just good luck early on. And in 2002, you've got Gruden traded to Tampa Bay. They finally get over the hump, get the win.

You know, throughout the history of the game, there's these guys. You know, Tom Flores in 1980, he had just joined the Raiders. He should be a Hall of Famer. He won a ring there. Joe Gibbs just shows up in 82 in Washington. He wins a ring. He's a Hall of Famer. Sefer, he's got two Super Bowl victories,

but he inherited all that talent in San Francisco when Walsh retired. And then Switzer, who's, you know, he would even call himself the ultimate babysitter. He, I think he famously yelled to Jimmy Johnson at a bar that like anybody could coach these guys to a Super Bowl. he left after 1997. His tenure was short in Dallas, but he got a ring. So as we move in in 2000s,

I'm talking about these guys that just get hired and win rings. I've mentioned Billick. I've mentioned Belichick, Gruden. There was also Tomlin. Again, you know, just a couple years removed from a Super Bowl. You know, on the heels of Cowher's retirement. And he was a Vikings coordinator. and then Kubiak, which was a perfect storm joining Peyton Manning in Denver.

I think most people couldn't name the head coach in Denver in 2015. I bet you in 10 years from now, a lot of football fans will forget that. He was a lifelong coach and had head coaching experience with the Texans. And then my man, Doug E.P. He's the most impressive of the group because of what he inherited and how quickly he got it done, at least to me, and doing it with a backup quarterback. The first thing you do is you go out and get your franchise quarterback, and then you don't even need them to win.

You need them to get the home field advantage. It gets hurt. You need Nick Foles to get over the hump and win the Super Bowl. So those are all impressive names. Now, the one thing that those guys have in common with Matt Rule is nothing, because all of them were NFL coaches. And Matt Rule would be the first coach in history to come from college and win in that span of time that we're talking about a Super Bowl.

I mean, that would be unprecedented. So, yeah, I'm going to put Carolina 8. Minnesota, give me them at 7. Okay, I think they hit their ceiling last year. I mean, they could, they could by way of matchups. I mean, they were never going to win that game in San Francisco last year, but they could by way of matchups find their way deeper in the playoffs this year. I still think they're a good team.

It's a crowded division. But you have to worry about their season. ceiling because we're talking about Kirk Cousin's ceiling and that defense is getting worse. I think that one of the reasons I thought they could go far last year was their defensive talent. It's slipping. They get the ball run up their ass in San Francisco and they're just not getting any better on that side of the football. And that's got to drive Zimmer a little bit crazy. At six, okay, I mentioned Arizona as kind of, they're a wild card team. I just don't know what to make of them. They could be 12. They could be one. I don't know. They had a really good.

draft. They've got a new coach that, you know, has yielded some mixed reviews. And they have a high ceiling quarterback. They really do. Kyle Murray could be electric. He could be that type of guy that could change the trajectory of a franchise and a division. He's that talented. They played Seattle and San Francisco really tough last year. Those are the lead dogs in that in that division. It happened quickly. I think L.A. is taking steps back. I think that San Francisco will take a step backwards. I'm not saying a huge step backwards, but I think last year was a special run for them.

And Seattle, they're not going anywhere, but again, Arizona went to Seattle and beat them last year. And Seattle plays really inconsistent in the regular season. I'm not saying they're going to leapfrog those guys, but they could be in a scenario where, you know, if you remember Seattle and San Francisco, damn near 10 years ago, dueling it out and seeing each other in the playoffs to decide who the best team in the NFC is.

I don't know what we're going to be looking at in two or three years in that division. If Kyler Murray keeps taking the right steps, they could be the cream of the crop in the NFC along with some of these other teams we're talking about. Now, five, we're going to move in the top five here. And, you know, this top five is made up almost primarily of teams with, you know, guys they're sure or their franchise quarterbacks. And they have like overtly open windows. Okay. So at five, I've got Houston.

I think they could be higher. And this is no shade to Deshawn Watson because I think him and Matt Stafford out of this list have been kind of shit on the way I seated it. but it has nothing to do with them. It has everything to do with me not trusting, whether it's the juju in Detroit or Bill O'Brien in Houston. I just don't believe it's going to happen if you got Bill O'Brien. And if Bill O'Brien leaves, then you have a restart and a reboot and everything that comes with it. I don't trust him.

Now, is Deshawn a top five, seven quarterback in the league? Yes. Will he walk? I don't think so when his contract's up. Will they franchise him? I bet they do. There could be a DAC situation with him. JJ Watts older, there's no clownie, no Honey Badger.

How are you going to stop Kansas City? That's what I want to know. When you get that big lead on Kansas City in the playoffs, how are you going to stop him? And Deshawn Watson might be a top five, seven quarterback in the league. Love him to death. But as long as Bill O'Brien's there, and we're talking about a three-year window here, I don't see it happening for them as far as winning a Super Bowl is concerned. Now, if they did it, put DeShon Watson in the Hall of Fame because it would be a hell of a run.

At four, I've got Cleveland. Okay, Cleveland, you know, they really have an opportunity to write their rich history of wrongs here in the next few years. I love this Stefansky hire. Again, a guy that got downgraded a lot when they hired him because he gets thrown in the loop with all these guys that look like they're 17 and like they jumped the line. And in Minnesota, longer than anybody, he's a heck of a coach from everything I hear. Now, can he run a football team? And they got a lot of talent there. I like the draft.

I like the fact they're starting to build up front doing what they weren't doing before. D-Pedesta got a hold of ownership and said, hey, like, this is how we're going to do it. They bring Barry in. I like it. I like everything about them. Again, stability in the division. You've got Burrow as well. But they have a solid shot when it comes to these teams that have not won a ring yet.

They're in my top five. They're at four. Number three, I'm going to go Tennessee. My favorite team last year outside of Philly. I'm like, that's my side team now. I told Taylor LeWan the other day I was on his podcast, Bustin with the boys. I said that's my squad now. I'm not afraid of anybody if I'm Tennessee.

I already beat Baltimore. I already beat Kansas City. Teams are afraid of Tennessee. Even if they know they're better than them, they're afraid of Tennessee. You've got a quarterback that you're going to find out real quick if he was a one-year wonder in Tennessee or not. You know, people talk about Miami, you know, Adam Gase's route tree, the way they coach things up there. You didn't get a full look at Ryan Tannenhill. Last year, he was very good.

He was legitimately very good. And you're going to find out eventually if it's Derek Henry or if it's Ryan Tannehill. because I think eventually you're going to let Derek Henry walk out that door. They chose Ryan Tannahill. Are they one year wonder? They're not afraid of anybody. They're going to play everybody tough. Is the division going to be down here soon?

That's the question. You could be looking at a Bill O'Brien firing at some point. Philip Rivers' retirement and Jacksonville might find a way to fuck this whole thing up and continue to piss down their leg. That position is Tennessee for a nice little run here. I know I've said that about other teams in that division. It's kind of who wants it. You know, and Indy seems to be the biggest impediment,

but how long are you going to have to wait with Philip Riversda? I don't think he plays another three years. Eason, is he the answer? Is he the heir apparent? I think Tennessee's got a chance to put a stranglehold on that division. And to make a run in the AFC, they're not afraid of any of those teams. Two, Atlanta. People sleep on Atlanta.

Now, people slept on them last year. They finished really strong. They reshuffled a lot of their coaching responsibilities. Dan Quinn did a great job with those guys towards the end of the year. Dan Quinn is a guy who has respect to his players. Ironically, as a defensive guru from Seattle, his defenses haven't been great in Atlanta, but they improved last year, you know, towards the end of the year. Shout out to Rahim Morris.

I mean, he had more responsibilities towards the end of the year last year. that defense improve. I think they carry that in this year, and people will sleep on them, and they will exceed expectations. You have a borderline Hall of Fame quarterback. They were just in a Super Bowl a couple years ago, 28 to 3. They deserve it. I was a part of that thing.

They really do deserve it. If they get there, I'll root for Matt Ryan. And you're in a division where the other two guys, I mean, people look at Matt Ryan, they probably make old guy jokes in his locker room. The other guys are fucking 40. And they're really good. They're Hall of Famers. But eventually they're going to retire.

And that could be in the next couple years. You could be looking around saying, hey, I'm the guy in this division, which would pave the way to a lot of success for them. If Matt's got four or five years left in them, I don't know. Number one, that leaves Buffalo. I think they had the best opportunity of any of those 12 teams that don't have a Super Bowl over the next three years to end up, at least, in the Super Bowl. Because they have a team that can beat anybody because they have defense.

They play fundamentally sound on that side of the ball. They're in a division where they're looking around like John Travolta and Pulp Fiction. Dot Giff. Like, where everybody go? Sam Donald, he's the class of the AFC East. Okay, I think we can handle that. I mean, they have weighted this thing out and their window coincides nicely with, and by the way, I like Sam Darnold.

I think he's going to surprise some people this year. I think the Jets are going to eventually surprise some people. But of the teams without a Super Bowl, because of that exodus in New England, because of the state of that division, the uncertainty, I like Buffalo to make deep runs. We talked about how Tennessee is not afraid of anybody. I don't think Buffalo is really afraid of anybody. Maybe the Eagles, because they got their asses kicked by the Eagles last year. But they played everybody else pretty damn tough. They made the digs deal.

It shows you how serious things. They are. Josh Allen is the biggest question mark. He has no excuses at this point. And they don't have any burnout from deep runs, okay? So I went back and looked at, I mean, because I'm claiming that Buffalo is, you know, they have the best shot at all these teams to make a run in the next three years for the sake of the question. I look back at first time winners in franchise history when it comes to Super Bowls this millennium.

There are six teams, Philly, Seattle, Baltimore. New Orleans, the Bucks and the Patriots, which is wild. Easy to forget that this is their first century being relatively relevant. But I see one comp for Buffalo. And I say that because as I look at any of these teams, you wonder, if a team's coming out of nowhere or a team is not a traditional winner, do they have to have a lot of buildup? You might have thought that Buffalo in the 90s was a sure thing to eventually win a Super Bowl

because they've been knocking on the door. But I don't know if that's necessarily true. I think a lot of these first-time winners, as you look at it, they weren't knocking on the doors. I mean, Philly, okay? 10-6, 10-and-6, coaching change, you know, around 7-9. They go 7-9 again, and then, you know, the magic happens. In Seattle, they were 4 and 12, 5 and 11, 7-9, 7-9,

then they draft for us. They have one playoff appearance, and then the Super Bowl. Baltimore, no winning there. Four and 12, six and nine, six and ten, eight and eight. Then they win a Super Bowl. They go 14 and two or whatever it was. Win that Super Bowl on the heels of that defense. New Orleans.

You know, New Orleans, when you look at it, I talked about this Drew Breeze thing over the fall. Like, New Orleans has been wildly inconsistent. Three and 13, 10 and six. they go and they lose in the conference championship, 7 and 9, 8, and 8, and then in 2009, finally win their first Super Bowl trophy. So, again, the two years preceding these Super Bowls

are Martin being average for these franchises. And then the Bucks, I mean, they're the one outlier. They were in the playoffs four out of five years before their 2002 Super Bowl. They were knocking on the door, 10 and 6. eight and eight, 11 and five, 10 and six, nine and seven. So you had a division loss, a conference loss, and two wildcard losses there. Before Tony left town and John Gruden was traded for, you know, that team was ripe.

It was ready. So, you know, the bucks, to me, are a bit of an anomaly. There's one team that I would comp on that path, that trajectory, the Buffalo Bills to, and that's Seattle Seahawks, at least this century, as far as the, the trajectory of the team. Listen, Josh Allen is not Russell Wilson. That defense is not the Legion of Boom.

But this is a team that snuck in the playoffs. You know, the bills did a couple years ago with that kind of seven and nine, eight and eight type team. The only real exercise there and appearing in that god awful playoff game was getting Kyle Williams a playoff victory after all those years. very emotional, great win for them, for him. But for Buffalo, we knew that beating Jacksonville like 9 to 6 was a waste of time. Then last year, they get serious a little bit. McDermis doing a good job. They end up in the playoffs and kind of blow the game against Houston, but they get their

playoff chops a little bit, like seriously. Two years ago, three years ago, wasn't really. really a team that was serious about making a run. This team last year, they beat in Houston. They're not afraid of anybody. We talk about Tennessee not being afraid of anybody. Teams don't like playing Buffalo. Maybe Buffalo is just afraid of Philly after last year. But what I'm saying is that you don't need to be knocking at the door for years.

And I think Seattle's the comp here, you know, before Russell won that Super Bowl in a second year, 11 and 5, they make the playoffs. They're losing the divisional round. But then they strike gold the next year. And I think that if Buffalo ends up turning the corner here and doing something completely unheard of and special and bringing a title to Buffalo, you'll look back and say, okay, they built that thing kind of like Seattle did. Now, I don't think they might not have the longevity that Seattle has as far as being relevant. But, you know, it's, you know, Seattle was four and 12, five, 11, seven to nine, seven to nine. They had a fluky playoff appearance just like Buffalo did.

They had one year where they had to get punched the nose in the playoffs, and then they won a Super Bowl. I'm not saying it's going to happen to Buffalo, but to me, they're the most likely and ready to make a run within the next three years of teams that have not won a Super Bowl. And man, would that parade be fucking awesome? If I had to rank the parades, Buffalo is towards the top.

That would be absolutely epic. Detroit would be epic. I have no idea what would happen. that city if they want a Super Bowl. The worst would have to be like Arizona, the Chargers, Jacksonville Parade. I mean, that city's like 100 miles wide

with like 100 people living in it. It would be awful. I don't even know if they have like a downtown. No disrespect to Jacksonville. They've got some nice golf courses around there. Also, the beaches are very nice. But I don't think they do parades. So I am hoping for the sake of football,

humanity and Bill's fans that I'm right, Buffalo to me, has the best shot within the next three years. I'm making Super Bowl run. That was Mailbag. That was the Green Light Pod. Again, Wednesday, we have a last dance heavy show. Okay?

It should be good. So we'll see you then. Y'all take care.