Green Light with Chris Long - NFL Week 11 Picks with ESPN's Stanford Steve. Kyle Long on Chiefs at Raiders.

Episode Date: November 22, 2020

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So it is week 11 in the NFL, and if you throw in my fantasy team, I'm fighting a battle on multiple fronts here. A rare 10 p.m. Pac-12 game in college football, which just sounds like a dangerous end to a Saturday for me. And the joint bank account is now in the black. These are random celebrities beating Vegas, which is just stupid. It's dumb. Let's get it going. Hey, y'all. I'm Chris Long. This is the Greenlight Gambling Show, by Draft Kings. Week 10 of football is in the books,

and now it's time to review the tape and get ready for week 11. There's no better place to get in on all the action than with Draft King Sportsbook America's top-rated sportsbook app. To add to the excitement of week 11, Draft King's Sportsbook is bringing back

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What's the word, dude? How are you, buddy? I'm back from Vegas symptom free. Different vibe for sure out there. Did not sit down at one table. Just tried to take it to all the sports books. But it was good. I mean, it was 70 out there.

Pool, new stadium swim at the circus casino is absolutely incredible. On cabana, spacing, everything was good. And we did well. We did well. College picks are going well. really well, but they're always going well for you, man. They're always going well for you. Try.

I don't want to jinx you. All right, please don't. You look youthful off of Vegas trip, which is hard to do. So shout out to Stanford Steve. Red eye back. Got to take the red eye back. Skin care products must be on point this year. Red eye.

Hey, dude, last week, a little step back for you and a step sideways for me at one, one and one. Because of that fucking Nick Chubb heads up play. Ooh. Yeah. Is that your push or your loss? Push. Yeah, all right. Well, at least it wasn't a loss, bud.

Yeah, I know. It's better than the loss, yeah. There you go. So we're still neck and neck, and I'm thinking Thanksgiving week is going to be a high noon for us, Steve. But first, week 11 in the NFL. What do you got? Give me your best pick. This week in the NFL, I am, I mean, it feels like every day.

I don't know what, like your favorite high school rivalry. you know, college, the Bolton board material. This Raiders chiefs thing is awesome. And I honestly can't tell. I mean, I know they were, one of my favorite things ever was the old Bill Walsh, Mike Holmgren coaching tree show they showed when Andy Reed and Gruden were on the Packers staff.

And they used to make Gruden drive a bike in the snow to go get coffee in the morning. And like he did it every morning. And you know how Green Bay, you know, so I don't know what the dynamic. the dynamic of Andy Reed and Gruden is right now, but it's awesome to watch from afar. And listen, the Raiders,

they are playing, they play offense like no other. I mean, extra linemen out there. I mean, you as a former D.A., you would hate playing against this team. Multiple tight ends,

just trying to muck it up. They know their defense isn't good, so they're trying to keep them off the field. The play action is not as consistent, but I mean, they still take their shots with, you know, with rugs and those guys. I like what I've done. I think they're really, really frustrating to play against. And I think, you know, now it's going over a touchdown. I mean, they beat them already.

And I understand I'm going against my homes, but I'll take all those points with the Raiders at home. I really like what they're doing. I don't want to say old school, because I feel like it's a new way of trying to find. ways to run the ball. I've talked about Josh Jacobs and how much I love him on this podcast before. He's just a throwback. I did see Tyreek Hill is going to return punts now. So that'll be fun. So, you know, he might want to factor that into your over under. But I'll take the Raiders with the points here, man. I'm really fired up for this game. And I really like a little bad blood with the division rival that's been so good for so long. Me growing up as a Chiefs fan

with Derek Thomas is my favorite player. So this gets the juices flowing. How about the bus driver in Kansas City is moving the line in Vegas a little bit? How dumb does that guy feel? He feels, you know what? He might actually end up being if he's a Chiefs fan smart because he light a little fire under their ass. And I mean, people take that shit personally.

It's not a big deal at the end of the day. Just beat them. But, you know, here's the reason I think the chiefs, win this game, but that is a lot of points. Maybe if you're, you know, I used to call myself to tease God before that kind of, that train went off the track. I would tease this game, though. I would tease the total down.

There's going to be a lot of points. I like the over anyways. I think Kansas City wins this football game. But I like where you're going. It's a lot of points, and the Raiders have been good. And Derek Carr has bucked all his trends this year. So give me the Falcon. The Falcons, man.

The Falcons, you know, they call it, what do they call it? Hate Week down there. It's like a college rivalry, man. Everything goes out the window with that matchup. And you couldn't come at a worst time. That rivalry couldn't come at a worst time for the Saints. I mean, yes, James, the blessing here is that he got, you know, a little under a half of action, right? Last week, I thought he looked shaky.

But what's going for him, every quarterback seems like they've looked good with no preparation, including rookies this year. So I do think he eventually finds a way to settle in. I think this week, Atlanta keeps it close. Remember last year, Atlanta beat him when Atlanta was maybe even worse than they are now at that juncture in the season. So give me the Falcons to keep that thing close. Don't want to bring up bad memories and negative thoughts from your playing days. But like how free are the Falcons playing?

Like they're just letting it all hang out. I mean, I hate saying no pressure. there are, but like, there is a freedom there where it's just like, yeah, you, let's go. Matt, go ahead, do your thing. And listen, when we used to be in the NFC West, we were like the redheaded stepchild. Yeah. Like, we were the seven and nine team, but we would ruin people's, you know, year. The year that the Niners went to and damn near won the Super Bowl against Baltimore, we beat the

shit out of them. Like, we physically beat them up. And I think we tied them once and beat them once. We almost, we went into overtime twice. against those guys that year. We also held Marchand to like 20 yards on Monday night and would beat up on kill Russell Wilson and all that stuff. But those teams were great teams and we were kind of the bottom dweller, right?

So this is the type of spot Atlanta can show up in and be like, fuck it. This is a division rivalry. We hate you. You hate us. I don't care if we're trash this weekend. We're going to ruin your year. So I really like Atlanta in this spot. Okay.

Good. But your Eagles, plenty, plenty of things have been said about him. I asked Van Pelt about, I asked him on his podcast this week. I said, are the Eagles going to go to the playoffs? And, you know, it got him going because our researchers keep throwing the FBI stuff at him. And they keep saying, you know, he says, you watch, you know, you watch the Eagles every week. and then you wonder if the FBI is watching them because it doesn't feel like they're watching them

if they keep saying they're going to the playoffs. Exactly. This is last week I said it was my last stand with the Bears and that was, had to wait all the way to Monday night for this. This one is the Eagles.

And I said Cleveland last week. I liked Houston because of, this feels like the game the Browns always drop. Weather still is a good. Baker still looks very, very uncomfortable with the elements and stuff like that. It's in Cleveland. This feels like a last stand for the Eagles.

They need a win. You know, we're getting later in the season. I understand it's not a division game, but this would be a hell of a win to get. They're getting three and a half right now. I will take the Eagles plus the points. And what I expect to be, not a 10-7 game like Cleveland was with Houston last week,

but I don't think it's going to be pretty. But I think, you know, the Eagles will have enough, make enough plays to keep it close. Golly, they have to. It is. They are in a bad spot right now. And I'll go no comment on that game. I'm going to just a total stay away from me. And usually I have a little action on the Eagles.

A little. A little. Depending on the weed. You know what? Give me, golly, this feels, and I'm going to, we'll save the one we're going head to head. against each other for next. But I've been dancing around.

I kind of like the under in the Pittsburgh Jacksonville game. I kind of could like the over in Kansas City, Vegas, but I'll stick to picking a favorite here in the Dolphins. That feels like a very public pick. And I know we talked about the weather maybe up in Denver. My Dolphins. Yeah, you're dolphins. But you're not on the bandwagon so much this week.

Or you're a little more lukewarm because you're worried about the snow and that sort of thing. I'm trying to think like, watching two in college in SEC it's you know cold game I just feel like you know Denver you never know I haven't even looked at the weather it feels like it changes every four hours there

but it just I mean you know Denver's still going to play some defense could you know but Miami's won games without him doing anything we go back to the Rams game he didn't have to do anything the defense is that dynamic their secondary is playing out of their minds the versatility and and we talked about this with the blitz pick up,

the blitzes they have and the moving around of guys. And, you know, it's just, it's just been awesome to watch. You know, we were talking, it's amazing to me how Al Michaels and Collinsworth just forgot to bring them up. The whole Patriots game Sunday night,

talking about how the Patriots, you can't give up on them. And the bills are atop the division. Yeah, like what about the? There are a bunch of games already ahead of the Patriots. So I love what I've seen. And plus those throwback uniforms,

more last week with the gray face mask those are beautiful those are men beautiful and yeah I mean I just looked at the weather so I'm rushing to get this in but I it's like 52 and sunny on Sunday in in Denver so something fishy about

that line and I feel like everybody's going to be afraid of it because everybody's on it but and even if they run I know part of it is okay Miami's you know manufactured touchdowns you know defense and special teams. Even if they run out of that magic, I think they're a better football team than Denver.

And Denver's got questions right now with the quarterback. So give it to dolphins, I don't want to overthink it. Let's get to the one that you and I are at odds on. First time. What are we in week where are we? Week 11. I think we're in week 11. Again, last stand. Philip Rivers. always feels like to me, that guy where you take them, you want more, you go against them, he burns you. And the Colts, we've talked about it for a while. You know, last week, we didn't get a chance to comment on a Thursday night game. But the Colts, you know, whenever they would come up this season,

I've talked about they don't have a win. They don't have a good win on the resume. They get a good win Thursday night. They really put a good, you know, game plan together. I loved Darius Leonard's comments today. I don't know if you saw that, but I guess Rogers told Warner for the Niners, he's the best linebacker in the league.

Darius said, you know, well, I'm going to try and change his mind about that. I just love the way Darius Leonard goes about things. He's just incredible. I mean, I just love like he'll, you'll see a play made by one of his teammates and then like two seconds later, if he's on the other side of the field,

he'll just come running across like by the pile and just slap his buddy, like dab him up like yeah. Like the energy he brings is just amazing to me. There would be. So infectious. If I could play with any defensive player at any other level other than the D-line

and like just zap back into a defense, it might be Darius Leonard. Because he would just raise your intensity. And my attention is up. But like when you have a guy behind you, you can play off like that. And you can sell. celebrate with and he's going to be everywhere.

It's like just fun and it elevates the defense and that's what he's done because you know that defense has been pretty trustworthy this year. I don't know the sexiest but no and a lot of it has to do with him. So I do feel good about this too because I

feel like I got you in the corner against the ropes because now you're going to fight your way out with one of your most dislike teams picking games. That's the backers. I also know that I probably feel good about picking the Packers because I don't love them in general. That's probably a good sign. I like the Packers because, okay, you got top five defense, top five offense.

And one of these nuggets that they throw at you, hey, use this on the podcast. It has to do with number one passer rating offenses versus number one passer rating defenses since 2000. That has favored the offenses heavily. And that's what we're seeing in this spot, 10 to 1. 10 wins, one loss for the offenses in those situations. Wow. And then this year, everything has leaned offense. I mean, if you look at it, it's been a historic year as far as comebacks

where teams are blowing double-digit leads, the scoring's up. I just look at things. And the times that Indy's been tested, I thought they did a nice job against the Ravens, but that was a great matchup for them. Yes. And really, they win that game if the offense didn't turn the ball over. but when they played the Browns, you know, they kind of

I mean, they gave up some big plays. Yeah. They didn't, let's put it this way. They didn't win that game for that team. And, you know, the lost of the Jags seems like a long time ago, but the Colts haven't been tested. And neither have the, I was talking to Sanchez on my pot earlier. The Colts have not been tested against good offenses

and Green Bay has not been tested against good defenses. So we're going to learn a lot this week, but Ty goes to the offenses. In my mind, I'll take the Packers. Okay. First disagreement. Can't wait. I know.

Let's go college. All right. Hmm. It's a decision to make. Decision to make. I gave out Clemson and I went against the alma mater with Washington State. Let's go Clemson. Trevor's back.

And I just have a feeling. You know, Dabo plays. that role really not, you know, nice guy, all shucks, this guy and that guy, when he tries to put it on you, he's going to put it on you. Yeah. And do you really think he's going to have Trevor come back? And he's like, all right, Trevor, hand the ball off to ETN. Right. You know, like, they're going to come out. I mean, they scored 52 in the first half against Georgia Tech. And Georgia Tech was trying, like, they were trying. Yeah. And Florida State just lost their, you know, NFL prospect, D tackle Marvin Wilson, into an injury. Their best

wide receiver NFL prospect, Tamari and Terry just left out and left the team. They lost another offensive lineman. It's just not going well in Tallahassee. I think Travis is back at quarterback, and

that's because they started the true freshman last week. He re-aggregated a broken collarbone. It just feels like the bottom of a rebuild that Norville is trying to do in Tallah And I mean, I can't imagine how tough that is with all that's going on. You remember, you know, at the beginning of the pandemic when he sought out

texts as players, his players accused him and not sent him. Like, it was just bad. It doesn't feel like he's been able to get over that hump in a rebuild where I get it. You're the new guy and not like, you know, from a previous coach that might have recruited you. So I just feel like it's a chance for an ambush with Clemson Hare. They need style points to get in that one lost conversation. and Dabo has never been afraid to keep the foot on the gas.

And now when Trevor goes out of the game, you know what you're getting with Uiunga Layla and the guys they got. So they're giving 34 and a half, 35. We'll lay that. Wow. Put your balls in a wheelbarrow, Steve. It's pretty wild to see how far the half-ass-use semi-holes have fallen since my days in Charlottesville is a Wahoo. You hate to see it is what the kids say

And I hate to see Florida State struggling Let's do joint bank account Tip of the cap to our booking department For this poll Here's Kyle Long's pick Chiefs Raiders Chiefs are giving eight I don't know if you've heard that

Raiders Why would you give the Raiders eight points I don't know I think honestly I think the reason The Chiefs are giving eight is the Raiders haven't been that good at home and I think they got kind of lucky the first time they played.

Nobody's ever really at home in Las Vegas. Oh, that's one way to think about it. Maybe odds makers should take that into account. That's a fucking brilliant call by you. All right, Kyle. Thank you. Peace. All right. So, Steve, what do you got enjoying back in Cal? I'm going to go with a home dog in college football.

That is the Utah huge. They've been ravaged with Corona deals. Two games canceled. but they got one of the best coaches in the country and Kyle Whittingham. USC comes in who I think they scored more points in the last two minutes of their first two games than they did all the rest of the time in their games. Not what we've wanted to see from USC. I feel like Utah is a live home dog.

We'll take the through money line. Moneyline Utah. Let's go. Let's do it. So I'm battling back and forth here. And I guess, I mean, I think the Falcons could win that football game. But I'm going to go Falcons. Give me the Falcons because I took them.

Doubling up on them. Yeah, doubling up on them. I'm thinking about the Titans. I'm thinking about the Titans. I can't tell if we are. Here's the thing. You talk about being beat up. They just played in a monsoon and got the ball run up their ass like it was Army.

You know, like, So I don't know what to make of that. I think Desmond King's arrival has helped Tennessee, and I think we might be undervaluing them because of last week. It's not every week your special teams plays that bad unless you're maybe the Titans. The kicking game has been awful all year. I'm going to air on the side of caution and go the Falcons,

so I think they can win this football game. Okay. All right. That'll do it. Check out the regular Greenlight podcast. And we're still figuring it out, but I think we'll have Thanksgiving picks ahead of Thursday and a regular Friday show. So we got to more to come on that.

Yeah. I mean, it's what do you do Thanksgiving week besides drink, eat, and gamble? I don't know. There's a whole lot of like, I feel like Thanksgiving week and it'll be less so this year because there's less people around and everybody should be safe. But like there's a whole lot of like, babe, what are you doing in there?

And it's just, I'm in the bathroom for 20 minutes. I'm looking at the board. I'm watching something on my phone, like a trip upstairs. Hey, do you need anything upstairs? But I'm really going up to look at football for a little bit or sneak, you know,

whatever I might sneak upstairs. Do you, you'd be good at this because you probably already know it. There's definitely something in Turkey or your Thanksgiving meal that makes you sleepy, right? Yeah, Triptophan. Okay. Yeah.

I knew it. I knew it. I knew it. It's one of the most, it's one of the, hallmarks of Thanksgiving is just getting sleepy as fucking hammering these games. What was your go-to pre-game meal? Pre-game meal?

The morning. Team hotel. No, the four hour before the game meal. So I would try to eat so I didn't feel like a fat ass but carve up. I would get, you know, I'd do some pasta with some meat sauce maybe or I'd go sweet potatoes, mashed sweet potatoes, pile on some chicken. But the night before, that's where I went absolutely ham. French fries, turkey burgers.

Buffalo wings? Wings, the whole nine yards. After meetings, like five scoops of vanilla ice cream. Vanilla ice cream with Oreos smashed up. God, I can still smell the night before. Like, oh, man, you come out of that team eating, you smell buffalo wings and then you smell milkshakes. Man, those are the days.

Probably, yeah, that's one of the biggest things I miss about football. But we're going to get that experience all over again next week, and we can gamble legally as washed up NFL and college players. So that's what Thanksgiving is all about. I'm looking forward to it, and you'll hear more from me and Steve next week, I think. Y'all take care and stay safe.