Green Light with Chris Long - NFL Week 12 Picks With ESPN's Stanford Steve.

Episode Date: November 27, 2020

(00:32) - Welcome and TNF Time Machine. (7:07) - Chris and ESPN's Stanford Steve Preview The NFL's Week 12 Slate. Sign up for your DraftKings account at https://www.draftkings.com/sportsbook and use promo code : Greenlight Green Light with Chris Long: Subscribe and enjoy weekly content including podcasts, documentaries, live chats, celebrity interviews and more including hot news items, trending discussions from the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA, NCAA are just a small part of what we will be sharing with you. http://bit.ly/chalknetwork Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Have you ever seen 36 throw it to 99 back to 36? Buddy, only in Charlottesville, Virginia. I was so proud when we made bad beats. Happy Friday, everybody. I hope everybody's not feeling too bloated and disgusting and tired and sluggish and hungover. There is one cure for that. There's a few cures, but you could just drink again. I am recording this on Wednesday, Tuesday evening, sorry.

Wednesday evening? Holiday weeks run together. It is Wednesday evening. I didn't want to work the rest of the week. So I had Stanford Steve on today. We picked the entire slate of NFL games. Tune in for that. But first things first, check and see how Macon and I did on this week's Thursday night time machine.

It's the Thanksgiving edition. So we'll have Macon and then Stanford Steve, a bunch of picks. That's what this pod's all about. for Thursday and for Sunday. And again, reminder, I got to go to the Waffle House as it stands right now, so I better have done well on Thursday Night Time Machine. Hope you all had a good one. Enjoy your weekend.

Okay, Thursday Night Time Machine. Special Thanksgiving edition. Makin has been gracious enough to, I guess you, this is technically, this is part of the game, though, Make, even though it's Thanksgiving. It's Thursday. Dude, yeah, it's Thursday. said to you multiple times how about we do Thanksgiving games to give you a shot at this because you're down seven to one yeah not the only way it would be compelling down the stretch and you were like

l-o no I'm good I know I'm going to lose LMAO I'm good LMAO you're not a LMAO you're not a I've actually adopted it and it's because of you but I use it I feel like some people look at me because I'm a big LOL guy and they're like did stop texting like a teenager Well, I presume that you get a lot of texts. And LOL is just like, I've read your text. LMAO for you is like, oh, that's kind of... I actually did laugh. And then ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.

It's like, wow, that's funny. Yeah. So you actually have it down. But I wasn't putting you off. It was just one of those things that, like, I don't feel like getting a handout. But it is Thanksgiving and you're helping a friend. And I'm thankful for you. And I'm thankful for your presence on the Greenlight Pub.

make and I know the listeners are so at the very least uh I thought I'd indulge you and pick a couple Thursday games here you know why not let let the big fellow back in the competition and make an interesting down the stretch or I'll go down 9 to 1 or somewhere in the middle I don't feel good about either of these so I don't feel good about it because of the numbers game you know it's like you're picking you're picking two things you got to pick the winner and you got to pick the numbers and uh I've started to take into account where you might be picking We'll see if that strategy does anything for me. All right, let's go with the first one.

What are you more confident in? I guess the second one. All right, hit me with the score of the second game. Dallas 30, Washington, 20. Ooh, nice. Okay, I feel okay about this. I think it goes 2420 Dallas. Zeke Elliott runs the ball at will as he has against the as he has against the Washington football team as of late.

And they eke this one out. It's ugly. They get the win. Alex Smith is the only thing holding me back, even though he's been fine. I think Antonio Gibson's really good. Scary Terry is awesome. But I think Dallas on Thanksgiving,

yeah, they just look good and put a stranglehold on that NFC. They're just, they're wrestling to the ground. The rest of the division is finally realizing that it's been Dallas's all along. It's set. So seven points there would be a push for you and me. Yeah, touchdown will be a push. All right.

All right. So there's one I feel okay about, and this is the game I actually feel much better about, and that is at least from a betting perspective because I am hammering the Texans. I know that's probably a public pick. But I think the over could be easy money there as well. Give me the Texans 3426.

Congratulations. You won. Congratulations. You won. I'm going Detroit Basketball Lions, 27. Houston, Texans, 23. Nice. Okay. So I just have to root for a team. Yeah. I'm doing the, I'm doing the Zieg when you zag. I'm doing the opposite of what happened last week, all that good stuff. I've got, I've got no read. You've got no read, but there's no pressure on you. So you can, you can experiment with things like that at this junk. sure. One more reminder, before we get Sanford-Steeve on making his work in today, slang, an MLS.

The loser of this competition has spent 24 hours in a waffle house. Now, one more refresher here. For every waffle I eat, it's an hour off. That's right. I'll be in there 15 minutes, dude. That would require 24 waffles, just to be clear. I could eat 24 waffles. How big are the waffles in Waffle House?

They're pretty big. I don't remember because every time I'm in there, I'm drunk. I couldn't tell you. What I can tell you is that with the postponement of Thursday night's game, I, um, nothing will change for me, actually. Though I like to keep Thanksgiving and Christmas separate of late on Thanksgiving night. I've turned my sights toward Love Actually, and I'll be doing that again this Thanksgiving. Love Actually.

that's right the movie with the guy from uh from walking dead i haven't seen walking dead as you might imagine but it's a movie with lots of guys in it and gals the guy at the window with the sign that's right yeah he's from walking dead he dies yeah the thing i don't get about the spoiler alert crowd is uh that walking dead you've had six six years to watch it rick dies he dies he gets eaten by a zombie, he's dead. And he was also in Love Actually, which Macon will be watching Thursday night. So Macon, I hope that you enjoy your Thanksgiving viewing of Love Actually and that you have a wonderful Thanksgiving.

And for the folks listening, we're going to have Stanford Steve in a moment and we'll get you through your hungover post Thanksgiving haze. Make, thanks for joining us. Best of luck to you. Be well, Chris. Take care. Take care. All right, Stanford Steve is joining me.

for the record, this is the day before Thanksgiving, because we don't feel like I don't know about Steve. One of the great drinking days of the year, Chris. Can I start tonight? This is one of the great drinking days of the year. Wednesday before Thanksgiving. See, this is a new thing for me because when I was not a football player,

I was a kid, right? Yeah. And so you took it where you could get them. You couldn't just be like, oh, this is the night before Thanksgiving. Let me, you know, that's not the way it works. now no football do you ever remember a Thanksgiving without your dad working

no we talked about that we dropped the pod sorry for the people that that are listening this morning on Friday go back and check out the Howie Long Kyle Long Pod we talked about how irregular it was like we dad would like lie about Christmas

and say that Christmas was like the Wednesday that's right you told me that last you know what I mean like and we we go to school and like yeah Christmas was like a day or two ago and the kids would be like no dude it was like five days ago or a week ago same thing with Thanksgiving and that's okay it makes you like it makes you appreciate time together with the family like even my no doubt my whole career I never really had time with all of us together because Kyle was playing at Oregon or Kyle was playing in Chicago I was playing in St. Louis or wherever else my brother would be somewhere else working for the Raiders um yeah so it was

it was always a struggle to get everybody together and now we've got a pandemic but to your point I can get drunk yeah I'm 43 Chris and I can't this is the first year I can remember besides my senior year when we were we played Notre Dame the week after Thanksgiving the year we went to the Rose Bowl

it's the first Thanksgiving I can remember in my life I am not at a high school football game Thursday morning Thanksgiving morning swear to God it's a Connecticut tradition it's awesome I grew up with it obviously. But yeah, this is the first, like I'm going to wake, like I have no idea. Because you usually woke up, hungover as hell, and then you go to the game, it's at 10.30

in the morning, you start drinking again. And then I started coaching. So then it was like toned it all the way back. But like, you know, it was just had something, you know, you had a goal that day. Yeah. It was great, great tradition. I didn't know about the high school football tradition. That sounds actually objectively very cool. I wish we had that. It's awesome. You seem like a guy who can wake up and roll pretty early after night. drinking. It's not getting easier, I'll tell you that. I feel like I used to need more sleep after a hard night of drinking than I do now.

I don't need sleep anymore. I think I'm going through an interesting thing. You know, most people in their 30s, they're like, damn, I'm getting old and I'm losing it, but I'm gaining energy because I'm not on this hamster wheel all year long, you know, fatigued and playing in the NFL. So I'm more rested in my 30s than I was in my 20. But you also forgot one key word. We both have.

Kids. Kids, yeah. Yeah, there's no more excuses, bro. Yeah, I can't sleep till over. There's no more. I can't sleep till love. Hang over with the kids is the worst. Sleeping in hungover nowadays is like 8.30.

You know? Yeah, kiss those days goodbye, bro. Now, my lovely wife, Meg, I want to shout her out. Shout her out. Because she allows me to sleep late when I'm doing the podcasting thing late at night because I work long hours, late hours. So, like, she respects my sleep cycle. is probably 3 a.m. to 9 a.m. most days. That's like me most days.

Okay. 3 a.m. 9 a. But if I went out drinking the night before, there's no 9 a.m. You know, unless we both went out drinking and we talked about this and maybe you get the kids in the morning, I get the nap. I always would rather opt for wake up early and then go back to bed than wake up late with a hangover. Okay. Because I love a nap, bro. Oh, yeah, no doubt. Especially if you have the kids that are young enough still that take naps and you're like, oh yeah, I'm going to go put so-and-so down. So what we're going to do this week in lieu of Thanksgiving,

because Macon is slinging MLS, as you guys heard earlier, selling single-family homes. We are going to go through the whole Sunday slate, and we're going to pick a winner or an over or under. And I don't know, maybe fans can submit ideas for what the loser has to do. We couldn't think of anything. So put it in the comments, and we'll talk about it on the. pod.

Love it. We'll leave it to you, the listeners. Let's just go through the slate. No particular order. I'm going to try to keep this as orderly as I can, the 1 PMs and whatnot, but this is how I have it written out. Raiders Falcons.

This is an interesting one. Let's give our picks ahead and then justify, so we're not cheating off each other. Okay. You go for. Raiders. I got the Raiders, too. Damn it.

Honestly, I like the over as much as anything. Think of how far the Raiders have come here. they got beat by the chiefs last December 40 to 9. Think about, and the chiefs are not much worse, if at all. I mean, the Raiders went toe to toe with these guys twice. They beat them once. We saw last Sunday night. It was too easy.

They were moving the ball. And, you know, like the chiefs have to, when we said this on the pot, the chiefs thought they had this division on lock as much as any division in the NFL. Now look around. You got Justin Herbert. He's not going anywhere. You've got Derek Carr who looks like a new guy, and the Raiders have bucked a lot of trends.

And Denver's got a tough defense. So good for the Raiders. It's going to be an interesting division for a long time, and I like him here in this spot. Yeah, I mean, I talked about last week. That's why I picked them last week. I just love how Gruden's brought like this. I hate using the word, old school,

but just this throwback, out formation, you use extra linemen. you got a bell cow and Josh Jacobs. I feel like I talk about them every week. That's how much I like them. And Carr has just done a great job of not fucking it up. I mean, it's pretty sick. Like, don't throw picks, dude.

And we'll go up and down the field with everybody. Aguilar has been an awesome addition. I still think they should get more out of rugs. Waller is an absolute mismatch nightmare. And then when you throw in Moreau, the other tight end, now you get some balance. Now one guy is the motion guy. Now you put Moreau as the tight end. put Waller as the as the wing in the hback roll, that is a matchup nightmare. And cars just,

I'll keep us in manageable situations. And that way our whole playbook is open. And I still think they have, I mean, Edwards, the receiver, you talked about him at the beginning of the season. We still haven't seen his ceiling. So I mean, this thing, and they can play any style. I mean, they went to Oakland or Cleveland. They wanted that shit weather. They won 16 to 6. They losing a shootout last week for probably the best team in the league. They are versatile. Their defense isn't great, but their offense is going to constantly keep them in the mix, and they are a handful of, I mean, just game planning wise, they bring everything to the table. They can do everything. I think Max Crosby has a big day Sunday. I was going to say about both defenses, neither defense scares

me, but like, Grady Jarrett scares me defensively for Atlanta, and Max scares me defensively for Las Vegas. Those will be two guys to keep an eye on if you're, if you're eye on that total. I think one of the most interesting things about the Raiders last year is they were six and four going into late November they lost the jets by 31 the chiefs by 31 the Titans by 21 the Jags and the Broncos they had one win sandwich late against the Chargers so an epic collapse by them late they're not the same team no and this weekend will tell you a lot about that because this is a game that it feels trappy at first I thought the line stunk I mean I'm thinking okay recency bias well Atlanta won like three of the last four they were beating shit

teams. They were beating like beleaguered, Panthers, Vikings, the lions. I'm not buying it. And honestly, I don't think the Raiders feel like we just won a game at home against Kansas City. It's not like they're going to be relaxed. They're like, damn it, we can beat that team now. So they're not in some mindset

where they're like, we've arrived because we played them close. They're pissed off. They want to go on the road and get a win. And also, they're talking about the playoffs. So Kevin Harlan's going to be on the call. This is going to be a very watchable game. Okay. Yeah. I love Kevin Harlan. You do?

Yeah, I do. You know who's awesome on games? Jonathan Vilma. Jonathan Vilma is incredible. I'm so mad we lost to my ESPN. He's one of my favorite guys I ever worked with. Everything I know about Jonathan Vilma was he was like a football genius. Like from Greg Williams and Jolon Dunbar, all those guys that, you know, we're down there.

He's awesome. Really, if you got a chance, him and Kenny Albert are doing really, first year doing games today, this year, too. Like, that stuff is way harder than people thinking. They've done a great job of calling. time. Try it sometime because like literally sit at home. Sit at home. Watch a game and then go back and do it where you know everything's coming and see how you know. Yeah, just do it like turn the volume off and try to call a game like I did it the other night. Uh, third and seven. And you're just like, or wait, is it second down? Not that I would ever want to do that because I think, I think we're

way too willy-nilly about people in the media because they're successful in the media. They're like, oh, well, I could do games. Like, nah, bro. That's not how it works. And also like everybody, wants to do games right now, like everybody. So get in line. Let's go Arizona, New England. By the way, it's going to be in the 40s Sunday in New England. And, you know, Kyler, he's had a long time to rest, but that shoulder got a little banged up in the Thursday night game. Yeah. Ten days to prepare. Usually I'd be like, yeah, this is awesome, but I don't think Cliff out coaches Bill. So what do you got? I will say this. I liked how they got Drake back into the running game with the Cardinals.

I actually was surprised in some big situations. If you go back to that Thursday night game, Kyler, we didn't see the, you know, the Ryan decide, Kyler, you know, Zone Reed's stuff where he kept it as much. Now, I didn't get the chance to go back and watch it if he was just to give. But I feel like Cliff's got a little chip on his shoulder here. I think he's going to have a little something for New England. you mentioned the weather, which is key. All right.

We texted last week while the Texans and Patriots were playing, and you know, you were asking what do you have on that game? I said, you know, it's amazing how I'll differ the Patriots defense looks without playing, you know, with a monsoon going on. So I will, I know this is a public play. I know, but I'll go, I'll go Cardinals, sir. And by the way, the line as it sits right now is two and a half. Yeah, and traditionally this is a, this, I mean, look at it.

You know, you mentioned the time of game. It is, I see one o'clock against the West Coast team. Arizona, we know when, you know, traditionally a big spot to come back east. They don't play well. But I'm going to buck the trend here and think Cliff and the offense get things. Now, if it comes out that Kyle Murray hasn't practiced all week or, you know, in the last 10 days, you know, I don't know. I haven't looked at the practice things. Like, that's a whole.

I mean, obviously, the Cardinals without Kyler Murray is as thinkable as the Seahawks without Russell Wilson. I mean, that's how much he means to them. He means a ton and his mobility means a ton. Murray's held to fewer than 30 rushing yards. The cards are 1-8-1 over his career. So I got to think Bill knows that exactly. And Bill's going to be doing everything he can to make him beat the Patriots with his arm, which he's very capable of doing,

but it's one of those things, like, I'm not going to let, it's like when you scan a lineup and you're like, I'm not going to let that guy beat me. Anybody else can beat me, but when you're looking at Kyler Murray, Bill's probably saying, I'm going to let him beat me in a bunch of ways,

but he's not going to run for 100 yards. Now, I don't know if you can pull that off. Great matchup with the Cardinal receivers and Patriot secondary. Yeah, I'm going to fade you and go pads just because of the arm concern, the wild card there. Also, the pads are 9 and 3 against spread the last.

last 12 is dogs, cards are two and seven minutes to spread. The last nine is favorite. So this just feels like a, I'm not positive. I'm skittish. I'm going to go with the hoodie. Okay. Two and a half, though. It's basically like they might as well win outright.

If I'm going to Pats though, I would buy the half point. That's not going to be reflective of my pick. Would it go money wide? I think I'd just buy the half point. Okay. And you think that's unwise? No, not at all. Some people think just buy it.

if it's that tight. No doubt. Yeah. No doubt. It's just, we actually did this on a podcast a couple weeks ago with Chris Andrews from South Point in Vegas and who makes the lines for them. And he was talking about how you would think buying to three from three to three and a half

is more profitable than buying or, you know, taking somebody that's two and a half. Right, right. And it's not really, it's, the math really isn't there. I just like the safety of that three. You know what I mean? I'll buy three and a half. I just think you sound so confident that you would just take the extra couple shekels and take the money line.

I don't know. There ain't much riding unless these folks in the mentions have really good ideas for this gamble. And we'll select it before. We'll check the mentions. Absolutely. On Friday. Get at me. And see what people think.

And hit Steve up on Twitter too. He's a prolific tweeter. Chargers bills This is an interesting one I'm just gonna I'm just gonna go over man Okay like I'm just gonna go over I'm gonna cop out because I'm afraid This is one of those things like

The Chargers any lead they get is not safe And I feel the same way about the bills I don't feel like the bills are great at retaining Three score leads I could see them jumping out I could see the Chargers You know kind of fighting back And making this thing close but look at the Chargers

since October. 31 points in a loss, 27 and a loss, 39 and a win, 30 in a loss, 26 and a loss. And 21, when they had that game that we talked about with the Dolphins where Justin looked kind of human and those big blitz packages and such. Yeah. 34

in a win last week against the Jets. Take that for what you will. I just think they're going to be up there in the mid-20s and the total right now. 53 and a half. Yeah, I love that. I love that. I love the over. Okay. I'm going to go. I'll go Chargers. I think Bosa, I mean, you saw him getting into it with Flacco. Obviously, took a couple of shots at Flacco last week. But I think the Chargers D-line has the goods to frustrate Alan and get him into some, you know, not smart throws, I call him, for him.

But I think the Chargers could do some things. Obviously, the offense has been awesome. I mean, Herbert coming in, I just feel like, I mean, I give the kids. the credit. But man, his toys that he gets to play with on that offense are awesome. When Mike Williams is right, he is unguarded. Keenan Allen can run every route in the book. The two tight ends are getting things going.

I think the weather looks fine. That was the one thing I was looking at, but it looks like 50 degrees in Buffalo. Yeah, me as well. I think this will be a fun game. I think the Chargers have enough, you know, do what the Chargers do. Play well enough to lose a close game. So we'll take

to five and a half. And you don't have to worry about it so much with Herbert and his performance because he's played at Oregon. He's played in the cold rain and that sort of thing. Like it looks to be sunny and in the 40s. It should seem McDermann against Herbert here. I want to see what he, you know, you mentioned the Miami thing seeing what Miami did. Exactly. This is really interested to see what happens there with Mike. That's the one thing that gives me a little bit of pause, but I got to think it's going to be a high scoring game. You don't hate the over, do you? No, not at all. 53. 53 and a half. Yeah. Get it, bud. Yeah, I'm looking at it right now.

I mean, I don't see either of these teams being under 25 points. Like period. And I just think of two teams that take shots down the field. These two are at top of the list. Yeah, exactly. I mean, Diggs has been phenomenal. He feels like he gets his guaranteed touches early. And the best thing about those plays, if the guy gets beat, you get the PI call.

And in this league, that hidden yardage is incredible, especially when you have an over. Oh, it's so big. It's so big. I mean, just look at the way, you know, we talked about last week. I mean, there should be, I don't know about a stat for yardage, but there should be a penalty yardage stat. Now, it's really hard because there's such a subjectivity when it comes to calling these PIs.

But, you know, like last week, AJ Brown, well, AJ Brown didn't have a touch until the third quarter. Well, AJ Brown got mugged the first drive and set up, you know, a score that really kept the Titans in the game. If they don't have that opening drive 7, that game gets ugly. So these teams are going to take their shots. Give me the over. Let's go Giant Sincey.

I got the Giants here. Do we have to? The holiday season is in full swing and with the professional and collegiate football seasons entering the playoff push, Draft King's Sportsbook, America's top-rated sportsbook, wants to put you in the center of the action. If you haven't tried it yet, head to the app store now because you don't want to miss what Draft King's Sportsbook has to all. offer. To celebrate Sunday's action, Draft King's is ensuring all new customers are covered up to

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Restrictions apply. See draftkings.com slash sportsbook for details. Gambling problem, call 1,800 gambler. Or in Indiana, 1,8009 with it. I got the Giants here. I don't really care what the number is. I really should have jumped on it when it opened it like four. Right now it is, I think it's six.

I think it's six, 42 and a half. I'm going to go under. Yeah, the under is the under. I just, the, the, the, John, I'm a, I make all the NFC's jokes you want. I'm just sick and tired of it because I think it's so overanalyzed. Let it just play out. Like, why are we talking about a shit conference when there's so much other good stuff to be talking about? It drives me nuts about, uh, sports talk.

But hey, that's the, that's the profession I chose. Whippy. Um, I just, you know, they said Alan's going to start now a quarterback for the Bengals. Finley got thrown to the wolves in the third quarter last week against that Washington defense who has it humming right now so that was a tough spot

I give the kid a break there no one was expecting to do anything but I just it isn't going to be pretty this game I mean Daniel Jones has done some nice things run in the football but consistently I just don't see it I don't want to give any points

and I don't want to take any points so I'll just root for an ugly game and take the under let's see the money line is a little I don't love the odds minus 265 no thanks yeah we won't spend much time otherwise but I kind of want to just hammer it so that I can enjoy it be distracted I'm supposed to be watching the marquee by the way this slate isn't great this Sunday no four o'clock four clocks where it's at yeah the four o'clock's at and like yeah the shanahan's own the rams but I'm just going to be focused on bucks chiefs.

I mean, and we'll get to that in a second. Oh, all right. I got my eyes on another one. Oh, you do? Yeah. There's only three, aren't there? Who's the other one? The one you didn't mention.

Saints at Broncos. Oh, that's going to be fun. That'll be fun. Yes. And we'll talk about that in a minute. Browns Jags. This is, speaking of just abhorrent games to look at, I'm going to go with the over.

The Browns have had to deal with wind and clement weather the entire month of October. They've scored a combined, I believe, let's count them up. Six points against the Raiders, 10 points against the Texans

and 22 against the Eagles, well Carson scored nine. So the Brown's offense, I can't tell if it's going to throw them off to be playing in Sunny Jacksonville. Exactly. That's what I was thinking. Like, do you, how do you lean there? I could, like, this could be a game

where, like, Brown's guys are come out, and they got like, they're cramping in the first quarter to second quarter because they're not used to these conditions, you know? I like your call there. Jacksonville, I give them credit, man. They keep playing. I'll take plus the seven here. As much as I want to see the Browns and the playoffs, I just feel like they're still going to get there, but they're going to drop one of these games because just like the Dolphins last week, they're due. They're not an elite team.

This just feels like a spot where, and I know I've seen. said that for a couple weeks and they've totally done me wrong. But I don't want to say I like what I've seen from Jacksonville, but they haven't quit. They're still playing. They got the rookie quarterback. He's going to try and make plays. He wants to win a spot. So, again, give me a full touchdown.

In a game like this, I'll take it. Where Cleveland's not sure what, wow, we're going to have good footing at 76. Just look at their first seven games, though. And of course, they, you know, they were rolling a little bit more offensively, but they were in the 40s

with regularity. The totals were in the 70s and the 60s. So I just feel like, and I kind of hate it, because I'm looking at the total being 49, and I'm looking at, by the way, it's six and a half right now on Draft King. So do you like that still? You buy the half point or you-

Buy a seven. Okay. All right, well, I'm going to be buying, I'm going to think I'm going to buy something here in a little bit. Here's one I love. I love the Vikings in this spot. Love the Vikings against the Panthers. There's you could look at the over.

That's an over for me. Yeah, definitely look at the over. The Vikings indoor, 28, 34, 40, 31. They laid an egg against the Colts, but the Colts defense is very good. And they've been really good scoring the football inside. The one thing I'm nervous about is do we know if Teddy's back? He was almost back this week. We've got to assume he's probably back.

I would think he's going to want to play against his former team too, right? Absolutely. But I like the Vikings. I think they're going to run the ball at Will. And if you had to lean one way, if you're not just doing the over. Oh, yeah, Vikings. Yeah, probably. Big, you got a feeling I think I saw it was a false positive.

So he's going to play. That was news. Miami, New York. Give me the Jets. That's a lot of points for a team that I think we, maybe to your point last week, a little bit of overvaluing, their defense, their special teams. They came back down to Earth in Denver.

or they, who knows how Tua, I like B-Flo's move, right? I like the, hey, if you got a guy, and we talked about this last week, if you got a guy like Fitzpatrick, who's got a role, and he's not like an equal to Tua when it comes to the future of this franchise, in a spot, say, hey, man, love you, you're our guy, but this fourth quarter, we're going to go with the guy who's used to crisis management. Right now we're in crisis. Like, there's nothing wrong with that.

But Tua, I don't know how he's going to respond to this. You know, like, you know, in Alabama, there was some back and forth. But this is different. And I don't know how this work week goes. Sleepy week. The Jets, Thanksgiving week. Give me the Jets, getting a whole touchdown. What do we got for over under here?

44 and a half. Yeah, that feels like an under. Everybody's got their Adam Gates jokes with Flacco the last couple of weeks. They've competed. They've thrown it. They got Paramen. They've got Sims, the rookie who they drafted, both big guys. They got hernd and going.

Flacco's done a great job of just giving those guys shots to throw. I mean, that's the thing. The Jets, I mean, with Sam, I think he was so timid and afraid to make a mistake early in the season that it really affected their ability to throw the ball down to foot. And, of course, they got destroyed with injuries and COVID and stuff like that. They lost 24 nothing last time. That was at Miami. But you look at the Jets, you know, played well enough.

I thought to win. it's just turned up. Flacco made a horrible pick six. And then the week before that, you know, they should have beat the Patriots. So, I mean, they've scored 28 and 27 in the last game. I mean, the offense has got it going. I'd still respect the hell out of Flores and the Dolphins D. So I will stay away from the side and go under here. I kind of like teasing the Jets, maybe, with the Tees God.

He's in the building. I feel like teasing the Jets was something else. Wednesdays. He's here. He shows up on Wednesdays. Tees God. Tees God is in the building. homage. I might have to tease them

with somebody else. Maybe maybe with the Chargers. Get the Chargers into double digits or you could tease them with the G-Men. Because you know the G-Men are winning this fucking game. I like Joe Judge. They're going to win this game. Okay. He's going to have them ready. You say so. You say so.

Well, Cincinnati, you've got to understand when you lose the future of the franchise, such sobering news like that. It's like they talked about it last week and Taylor, they asked him, did that kill the vibe? And he was like, no, that's bullshit. It crushes the vibe. You know, I've been there when Sam Bradford got hurt and people now look at Sam and they're like, oh, well, Sam, you know, it didn't pan out. Sam was offensive rookie of the year. Sam was, Sam got assaulted his entire career in St. Louis. So at the very least, I always say like, it's an

incomplete grade on a Sam Bradford. And when he got, when he tore his ACL, not just the first time, but the second time, the whole locker room is just like crushed for a solid two weeks. Like it's just really hard as a football team, even though that team was going nowhere to say, okay, we're in a pandemic. The next six weeks, we have to go out there every Sunday and you know, you know we're going to lose. When we had Joe, we had a fighting chance. We could spoil things. It was exciting.

It's a big depression that the team goes through. I just like the Giants. So you could tease, you could tease the New York teaser. How about that? There you go. Oh, there you go. For the love. For the love of New York.

Big Apple. Yeah, the big apple teaser. I'm giving it out. Let's go New Orleans, Denver. Very, very, very interesting. I like the under. Okay. I like Denver.

We talked about this Sunday night. The first thing, I think it was the first thing we talked about was Taysam Hill. And you asked me, you know, my thoughts. The first thing I said was they're not going to want to play. They cannot win a playoff game with him at quarterback. And it feels like it's just one of these. If they play the Eagles, they might.

One of these narratives, Chris, that, you know, what, you know, all this anticipation, you know, was about Tase him Hill, Tays some Hill, Tays some Hill, Tays some Hill. And he played well enough to win. You know, they beat the Falcons, the Hill to Falcons, the three field goals. Great job to them. They gain a game on the Buccaneers.

Buccaneers lose Monday night. Everybody thought this was going to be the time where the Buccaneers, you know, start to, you know, go and catch the Saints. Now it's just like, it's just, what have you done for me late? all right, it's done with. The Saints are fine. Taysam's going to be all right. No. This is where one of those circumstances where you're going to play in the toughest place

to play in the league, in my opinion, even though I never stepped foot in the field. That defense is real, man. Chubb is a mother. I mean, God, he don't stop coming. He's got every, to me, to me, I mean, you know way more to me. To me, he's got every move in the book.

All the tools, just enough as... And I still don't think he uses his strength enough. Listen, just enough bend to be an edge threat as a guy who can run through you. And that's the thing that, like, to your point, his strength is, I mean, when he's using his angles and he's using his hands, I mean, it is fun to watch. Oh, man. He might not be the best in the league, but it's maybe one of the most fun to watch in the league. And it's the same thing with like Zadarius Smith in my book. It's like, what style of fighter do you like?

You know, like. Yeah, no doubt. God, that's such a great call because like my favorite, Dianna watches, but Dupre. Like, he's, he's just balls to the wall.

Exactly. It's just, you know you're getting a straight dog every time. He knows that he does everything. He's not like a prolific one-on-one win in pass rush. No. But he's just balls to the wall.

He's perfect for that scheme. He also runs down, plays on the backside with violence. He never stops running. He's good enough and, coverage. He's a big hitter. He's fun, man. He's fun. I fell in love him at college. We had him on Scott's podcast this past week. It's a really good kid. Oh, God. Just, just great. He's a good good dude. But going back to Denver, I just, I like, I think, I think Drew can make enough plays

against the Saints D. I thought the Saints D played out of their minds. And Denver started run to football a little bit better. And they ran it on Miami, which is one thing I did not think was going to happen. I knew it was a tricky spot. But Denver, I thought ran with success in some key. I'm not saying they ran for a billion yards, but in key spots where they needed rushes, they got it. And if Melvin Gordon doesn't fumble that ball in the one yard line, we're not even talking about Fitsy and Tua and all that stuff. So I, I mean, we talked about Fangio. He's not a head coach, but I mean, they're, they're ready to play every week, Denver. And that defense is ready to go every week. So this is this, this line smells to me. I'll take

Denver here. you think Denver could win it outright. Yeah, I do. If they could get Tase them to be that uncomfortable, for sure. Because think about it, if you look at the Saints game last week against the Falcons, Falcons jump out, I think it was, but they can only get two field goals. Right. And then it's nine, and then it's nine three.

And then the Saints get a huge touchdown to make a 10-9 to Camara run where he made, um, 45. He made him look stupid. Yeah. Read. A whole out of free, free reign. but right there that's a huge score because now New Orleans gets to lead. They don't have to, you know, they could play defense and do whatever they want to do

offensively knowing that they have some, they have that wiggle room. And then they get another one on a scramble. So I think about it. If Denver jumps out to a two score lead. Yeah. Come on. Taste of mate coming back. It's Dion Jones is the kid.

Deion Jones, yes. I just didn't think of his name. Free run at Camero right in the middle of the. hole in the B gap. Nobody's there. It's on the one-yard line. Camara shakes them and goes outside and scores. Listen, I, uh, what do we have here, uh, on the number? Yeah, I see six, 43 and a half. And what's the total on draft? Forty-three and a half. I still like the under. I'm not going to overthink it. But I like them both. I mean, again, T's got in the building. I mean, this is an easy. Yeah. This is an easy. Get it up to almost 50 and, and ride the, the, the, the Broncos, because

This is the perfect game where you see Taysom's limitations. That's what I'm going off up here. Kansas City, Tampa Bay. The line is three and a half. I'm going over. Over. It looks like a safe bet. What's the total here that you're looking at?

55 and a half. I don't even care what it is. Tom ain't going out like that. Mm-mm. Mm-mm. And if I had to lean, it's three and a half. I might buy to get to four, which is some people are going to scoff at me.

but I really do think this game is going to be tight or Tampa Bay is going to surprise some people and win it outright, solid. So give me the box. Chief Wayne got their game that they had to get last week, in the division game, you know? Yep. Give me the box.

Okay. Yeah, so you're on the over. I'm on the box. Love it. San Francisco, L.A. Here's the game that I probably won't be watching closely in the 425 slot. I already know what you're going to pick

I buy the Rams I totally buy the Rams I totally do and I've been up and down and hard on them this year because it was really hard with their resume to say that they were a great team when they were just beating the NFC East okay that defense is unbelievable

best defense in the league right now versatile best defense in the league right now wow yeah I hate saying it but I love Chicago I love their defense too but Eddie Jackson just we're not IR, I think. And if they had, you're right, and if they had more, if they had more complimentary football,

maybe they'd be able to show themselves as the best defense in the league. Yes, from personal time. But right now, like passing league, seeing these young D.Bs there peaking, you've got 31 that's just been like, he's shot up like a rocket late in the year. You've had Jalen Ramsey take people away.

You've got Aaron Donald. You know who else is playing great football? Michael Brockers. Floyd. They're getting the most out of Floyd because when you have Floyd, and he had Akeem Hicks in Chicago, sometimes it takes a fresh start, but Aaron Donald takes things away that you have option to how you can block your edge rushers.

Also, the drop target gets deeper. You know, like this is a guy in Floyd who's not a power rusher per se. He's a run the hoop guy. He's got length. Floyd's thing, hey, go do that thing you do. Just go. Don't worry about anything else. Yeah. This defense is really good, man.

I don't know if they're the best in the league, but they're up there. I want to say Pittsburgh's the best in the league, but they just haven't performed up to last year's standard. They're almost like a victim of their own success, and I'm admitting that. But yeah, I'm going San Francisco here. Okay, I'm going to go under. I will tell you, just real quick on the Pittsburgh thing, the whole Pittsburgh dynamic of the defense is only going to be judged on what they do in the playoffs. that's the only that's the only like it's

I mean there's so many things And I like them in the playoffs When the weather gets cold And pass rush starts being really important Yep And the continuity The guys that have been there before That defense is going to thrive

But right now I got to give the respect Where the respects do And I love it The Rams Also people It's so funny Everybody swears

And you and Scott Probably deal with it all the time Or any people in the media Is like you hate my favorite team I evidently hate the Rams because they cut me and let me go win two Super Bowls. Like I hate the Rams because of that. And I never talk about them. If you pick against anyone's team, that team, you hate them.

Well, I picked against the Niners because we know how I feel about the Niners in general. But the first time these two played, I'm not making the same mistake again. The line is seven. It was a lot tighter the first time. They're the same teams. I don't know who's playing a quarterback this year. This week, I haven't even paid a team. attention. Is it going to be Jimmy G.?

Is it going to be Mullen's? Like, what did I miss? Interchangeable. We'll figure it out Sunday morning. Yeah. So I'm just taking the Niners because Shanahan is on point. Chicago Greenback. Sunday night. I'm really looking forward to this game. I really am. Why?

Because I think it's tight. I like the Bears. Is Foles? He's questionable? I think Foles is going to play. And I like the Bears. Wow. Okay. So you have to consider. one thing. How are you feeling about the Packers coming off that Colts game? Because in a lot of ways

for most of the game it felt like a win. Yeah. And then like the end they just kind of collapse. I mean, what's your spin on coming off that game? I worry the Packers defense is going to be relaxed knowing that they're getting Chicago

who's not really thought of. Does that make sense? Yes. That's why I like the Bears and I think the Bears have what it takes to play low-scoring games against the Packers. God, it feels like I'm taking every under. It's in Green Bay. Yeah, I'll go under 45.

Oh, wow, they play Week 17. Yeah, they play... All right. I love seeing first-time matchups this late in the year. This is great. This is going to be fun, and I'm just telling you, I said it early in the year. We can laugh about, you know, Nick's volatility, the ups and downs. You can laugh about Matt Nagy.

You can laugh about the Bears. The first game I saw these two teams play was last year. Coming out of retirement, I went and watched my brother play. And I sat in the suite and I tailgated. That shit sucks. Going to an NFL football game is not that cool. I wanted to get out of there by halftime. But the score was like 9 to 7, okay?

The teams ain't that much different. Okay? I mean, the bones are there. There's a quarterback difference in Chicago. And I actually like my chances against Aaron, better with Nick goals than I do Mitch. But even if Nick doesn't play, you look at the floor for this team and that's a close, low scoring ball game. I believe that. Okay. Yeah. All right. I'll go under and hopefully it's ugly. Tennessee Indies like the game of the day. Yeah. Here's my read on this game. Okay. Like

historically indie has been pretty good against the spread against these guys. You know, you look back, they've handled their business against the Titans in recent history as well. So it feels like a stay away when it comes to the line for me. I also don't think we should overreact to two weeks ago because when your special teams pisses down their legs that bad, you're going to get a 3417 type ball game. Tennessee was in control of that football game for a lot of it. And I also think you could get a letdown here. Probably what I would do is tease the under and the Titans here. But if I had to take anything, I'm probably going to.

going to go with the Colts. Oh no, I can't do it. I can't pick against my boys. Fuck it. I'm all in on the Titans. Give me the Titans, especially because what is it, three and a half? Three, three and a half. It's right around there. Yeah, if I can get it three and a half, I definitely, I think I like the Titans. They're not going to do all the fucked up shit they did in that losing effort less than a month ago. It's really hard to beat a team twice in a month. Okay, here's the question for you because you lived it. I didn't. They play that Thursday night, right? 3417, you just talked about it. They get the extra rest, they both win overtime games

this past Sunday. Both of them. What's left in the tank? Well, is that why you might like the under? Mm-hmm. But I can't give out every under on this slate, which feels like I'm doing.

Listen, I feel like both of them might have a lot in the tank, but in a rivalry football game, sometimes you're just like, you're just drunk. You're just like, okay, it's, you're just going to, keep going you know like you're just you know it's rock i'm going on the rockum sockum robots yeah ride it man dude go with the under i'm going to go with the i'm going to make the stupid heart pick i love the titans man i just i love rabel they don't have any pass rush right now i could put on 10

pounds make a run what do you think what number would you wear oh in tennessee whatever you whatever mike rable wanted me to wear i'd just be happy to come to wood good answer I like the Titans, man. Give me the Titans. Okay, good. Under. All right. So to review real quick, again, we said we both are on Vegas.

I'm on the over in the L.A. Buffalo game. You are on the Chargers. I got the Giants. You got the Under. I got Tennessee. You have the under. Cleveland. I have the Over.

And you have Jacksonville. Carolina, I got Minnesota. And you have the Over. Over. Yeah, Over guy. Arizona, I got New England. I'm going to fade myself and my own instincts. Yeah, I don't love that one.

You're thinking about repicking. And you have the Cardinals. Miami, New York, I have the Jets keeping it close, and you had the under, New Orleans, Denver. You had the Denver Broncos, and I have the under. San Francisco, L.A. I got San Francisco. You have the under.

You have the over in the Kansas City, Tampa game. got the bucks uh Chicago I've got you've got the under and that rounds it out for us all right so again everybody enjoy their Sunday I hope the train is still rolling for you and you haven't do you get the sunday we're going 12 fix 12 on 12 yeah do you get the Sunday do you get the Sunday scary's uh like after drinking like with the hangovers in the evening you just get all kind of like uneasy does that happen to you at all or do you see I get the get the, I get the, I feel uneasy after it binge drinking. I just, I just am not well. I'm just not happy. I just been forcing myself to get on that damn peloton in the morning and that really,

it's, it's painful. And there's been some ass whippins, but it, I mean, you get out of the shower. I mean, it's, it's the best medicine. It sucks to do and it's hard to do, but that's all I've been trying to do. So you think Steve's hangover tips, get up early and get on the Peloton. Got to get a sweat. Do you have a favorite, do you have a favorite Peloton coach, so scream at you and get you. Alex Tucson, don't mess around. That is a bad man. Okay.

That is a bad, bad man. Oh, you know what I wanted to show you? The last ride I took, it was cover songs, and your boy came up. Whom? Willie. Oh, Willie Nelson. A lot of people cover Willie. A lot of people covered each other back then.

Willie covered Alman Brothers, Midnight Rider. That was the first song of the Peloton ride I did the other day. And I was jacked up. never heard before. I don't know if I've ever heard the maybe I have. It's really, really good.

Okay. It's on electric horseman. Okay. That's a fucking soundtrack. Oh, love me some Willie Nelson. Willie Nelson would be also a good plan for anybody this week that wants to avoid a hangover.

I'm going to be Willie Nelson. The entire week. I'm Willie Nelsoning as soon as I get home. Like, before I walk in the door, I'm going to be Willie Nelson. All right. Which always takes the edge off. Just be careful of it. trip to fame what is it trip to fame put you to sleep guys so yeah hopefully you're still the train is still

moving on sunday track our picks and friday please leave us uh a message so to speak leave us some you know some ideas on how we might settle this uh thanksgiving sunday slate bet uh steve thank you happy thanksgiving uh to you and yours the stanford steve family chris before i go have you ever seen 36 throw it to 99 back to 36. Buddy, only in Charlottesville, Virginia. I was so proud when we made bad beats. That's all Macon, man. Macon gave me the heads up.

I got my highlight people on it, ASAP. So you don't think, you don't think that you would have found that if it weren't for Macon? No, no. This is what happened. So Macon text to me. And then I sent Mara highlight guy who basically cuts all our highlights for bad beats.

And he's like, I'm actually, he's a degenerative. his name's Gifford Gold, awesome kid, young bucks. No, you don't want his picks. He's not, no. But he actually was assigned to the Virginia game

and he's like, I'm sitting, like, I take, making texts to me a second after the game was over. Oh, yeah, he was texting me too,

like you will not fucking believe how it ends. And Gifford is like, you're not going to believe it, but I actually, that was a game. He was assigned to him in screening back in Bristol.

So he was all over it. He knows every line and everything. So it was a great collaboration that I wanted to get in. Because it's, I want to give a make sure. Do you believe Bronco in the bingo card story? I do. Because he's not even.

Here's the deal. Here's the deal. And I give the, I give the O.C. credit. Because here's what I think happened. I think he gave the play and the signal came in wrong. Yeah. I think it got signaled in wrong.

Yeah. Yeah. That's where I think it happened. I give the OC a lot of credit that he took, he took the blame. But I mean, you had to think something what's going on. Yeah. listen, they're not the type, but for people that are listening, basically go look at bad beats this week. My Virginia Cavaliers, they were up by a million points. Abilene Christian

did a bowling pin celebration in the wee hours of the game, down 30. Next play backed up to our own goal line. We run like a reverse pass to a quarterback who's a walk on and where's number 36. We got another quarterback wearing number 99. Like things are complicated. Anyways, that went, that went badly. And then if you had Abilene, you, you, you have. Absolutely got smoked because with 15 seconds to go, they're driving, trying to just run their offense, and we picked six to cover. And blitzed. Yeah.

I mean, it's just, the little thing. Anyways, I believe Bronco, I think it goes like a lot of translation. Yeah, I just think it's a really tough for Abilene head coach to be like, like,

like, hey, man, I'm sorry about, like, that's the first thing you're saying, you were doing a fuck you saying, if you were doing a fuck dude, it still happened.

Yeah, if you were doing a fuck, you think it's like okay you just did the bowling pins now we're gonna run a reverse pass out of our end zone chances are you wouldn't run across to apologize you would just be like fuck you yeah you know and bronco he's a solid dude well that's great man i was so proud all right all right all right dude we'll see have a great weekend thanks guys all right