Green Light with Chris Long - NFL Week 16 Picks with ESPN's Stanford Steve.

Episode Date: December 25, 2020

(03:12) - Week 16 Picks. (19:15) - College Game of the Week. (21:35) - Joint Bank Account. Sign up for your DraftKings account at https://www.draftkings.com/sportsbook and use promo code : Greenlight Green Light with Chris Long: Subscribe and enjoy weekly content including podcasts, documentaries, live chats, celebrity interviews and more including hot news items, trending discussions from the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA, NCAA are just a small part of what we will be sharing with you. http://bit.ly/chalknetwork Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It is week 16 in the NFL. More importantly, it's Christmas. I hope Steve's been a good dude. Good boy. Steve, you've been good? Very good, Chris. It's been a focus of the daily agenda. That's what I'm talking about.

That's what I'm talking about. And I wish for a clean slate and a couple backdoor covers. Maybe I'll get them. We'll see if Santa's listening. I think Vegas is listening. Vegas is always listening. Let's get after it. I'm Chris Long.

This is the Greenlight Gambling show presented by Draft Kings. The 2021 basketball season is here. The teams around the league took the offseason to retool and revamp and are ready to hit the court. Draft King Sportsbook, America's top-rated sportsbook app has rolled out another one of their can't-miss offers. Trying draft king's sportsbook is easy. So what are you waiting for? Get in on all the action now. Download the top-rated draft king sportsbook app now and use promo code Greenlight

when you sign up to get 100 to one odds on any featured matchup this week. That's right. That's code green light. for new players to get a shot at $100 on any featured matchup this week for limited time only at Draft King's Sportsbook. Must be 21-year-old in New Jersey, Indiana, or Pennsylvania only bonus comprise the first deposit bonus and first-bett match, each up to $500 deposit bonus required 25 times. Play-through. Restrictions apply see draftkings.com slash sportsbook for details. Gambling problem, call 1-800-9 with it. As always, I'm joined by Stanford, Steve. Merry Christmas, my man. Merry Christmas to you, sir. Hope all well amongst these times. And let's get some winners.

Let's get some winners. Last week we had two winners apiece. I went two zero and one. Yeah, you beat me by a half point. We already know this. And Steve went two and one. But here's the thing. My gripe is that it just never should have.

I mean, that was the cheapest cover. Actually, the Kansas City game is the one I'm talking about. Kansas City and New Orleans, the way they snuck back into that game. It was gross. It was really gross. You know it was really gross last night as we record this thing to get it out of the way early in the week for people. The lines will be reflective of that. It is currently Tuesday because we like Christmas

and we want to get this out of the way. Last night, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, half time. Steelers' second half, minus 10, no-brainer to me. They come out, score a touchdown. They're in the red zone. They kick a field.

Go, okay, we'll be fine. It's the third quarter. Then I look away in Cincinnati scores. At least this thing's going to be a push, right? Well, here's what happened. The Steelers got stopped at the end of the game in their own territory, and the Bengals with seconds to spare. I mean, like 10 less seconds on the clock,

they're not kicking that field goal. They kicked the field goal, and I lose my money. It was totally pointless. Good thing you retired. Yeah, if I retired from gambling, like I said, I did, that wouldn't happen. So, as usual, Steve was right on the money with his college game of the week, taking Oregon over USC.

you know, maybe I should start listening and cashing in. So NFL week 16, three picks a piece. Steve, why don't you go first? I'm going to start right with that team. You just mentioned Steelers. It's about the spot. There's enough veteran leadership on this team. I understand what Ben looked like.

I also understand that was the Bengals Super Bowl. Bengals don't get a chance to play on Monday night football that often. I really think, you know, they played into that. and the Steelers, you could, it's funny, man. Like, you could prepare all you want and your coaches can remind you all the time about how you're going into a tough spot and you're going to face a hungry team. You're not ready until you get you punched in the face, man. You're really not.

And last night, I mean, I give that a hell of a lot of credit, man. That was, I know Finley didn't do great statistically, but man, that dude gave it his all. And if that's not good enough for some people, then I'm sorry, man. then don't watch the games. The guy, I mean, we really think their guys are out there, you know, trying to lose. When you're in a situation like that on national TV, like that dude's running naked keeps, you know, guys coming straight hill, that last third down where Minkas just come flying downhill, man. What a great tackle.

Came on the line. Even Finley, who's not like the most athletic, that's a really hard tackle because Finley gave him the dead leg. And that's what everybody does to try to shorten the corner. He got the corner shortened. But then really, Minka had himself in a little bit of a bind and was able to recover, knock the stiff arm down and get him for a TFL. That was a great tackle. Grab the arm for the TFL. Yeah, dude.

Things that happen in the game these days. But that's just how fast people think on the field. I mean, it's always amazing how fast. Especially that, dude. Yeah, safety processes coming down into the box and making a tackle on something. I thought the guys doing the game did a really good job at drawing that up, too, where it looks like you should be given. because of the overload, but you know how good, like there's, how many guys in the league could do what Mika did on that play.

Line up where he is and go make the play. Right. There's like two I could think of. It's a lot of thinking. It's a lot of thinking. And the other question I'll give you is, was that PI late in the game on the Claybridge? Oh, it was terrible. Such PI.

I had people in my mentions telling me it wasn't. I was like, okay. So Steelers. I think, like I said, there's enough veterans. and leadership in there where it's a short week. There's a holiday in the middle of this thing. And they know what they have to do to play better. It's about executing the offensive line really got eating alive.

And you don't see that often by that group, man. That's usually one of the most consistent groups in the league. It all starts everything when the shotgun staff goes off to Castro. And that, I mean, it's just a snowball. And, you know, I mean, say what you want. They got back in the game and had a chance. Yeah. Not many.

So how many other teams just fold right there? So I like the matchup for Pittsburgh here. I still think defensively they could they could keep Indy in front of them. I know Jonathan Taylor's been really, really good lately. And I think most of the teams that have him in fantasy are probably playing in their fantasy Super Bowl. But I would be scared if I had Jonathan Taylor this week. I think the Steelers win the game pretty convincing them. Man, you know what?

Probably it's compelling because I would think after, lost twice in five days, one to a Washington football team that was not being taken as seriously at that juncture. Those were the punches in the face that they needed to wake up, but then the problem is they're sleepwalking through another two-win-type team situation. I'm not saying that they've done a good job with this,

but to your point, I think they have enough leadership to show up Sunday. What happens? I don't know. I'm going to stay away from that game. I was eyeing the total, but definitely going to be an entertaining and informing game. It's a really, really interesting game. I just, I trust the Steelers here in this spot and I know people have said they trust them for the last three weeks, but I do here. The fourth week is the week to trust them. That's the way I think about it. It's the roulette wheel. That's all it is. Yep, exactly. I got a game that's going to flow quite opposite. Packers, Titans. I'm doing a couple

totals this week. The numbers of 56, man, you could probably get this at like 57, 58 and still take the over. Listen, we talk about this a lot, pace of play, and being able to hang with

offensive juggernauts like the Packers or the Chiefs, I like the Titans in those spots because if you watch them in the past, they've given up multiple scores, they found themselves down, and they stick to their stuff, but they do it, picking up big chunks on the ground

and then the play action chunks as well and they'll have these quick drives so yes they're a smash mouth team but they can keep pace with Green Bay and if you know Green Bay and you know me and my feelings about Green Bay and their defense every time they've had to fight somebody

and I don't mean show up and play defense fight somebody they've gotten punched in the mouth and that's been in recent history it's been the playoffs San Francisco I remember most at running for 200 plus but there was also a game earlier the season. Then this year, Dalvin Cook and the Vikings, okay?

You know, let's not forget all the other times they've been kind of bullied around. They're not a team that has a lot on their resume this year, to be honest. Other than that Saints win, name another team that they've beaten that has a 500 record. It's not

there unless I miscounted. So I really think this is the perfect barometer to see where the Packers are. I'll tell you one thing for sure. Tennessee's going to move the ball. And I think this game ends up being double 30s.

Give me the over. Yeah. Not good. I'm playing against Aaron Rogers in my fantasy Super Bowl. I think he has a great day. The only thing that could threaten this, and maybe this is unwise to get the bed in on Tuesday, but is the weather.

I don't know what it's like up in Wisconsin this week. Could be a snowstorm or wind that comes through, but I'm praying for 41 and, and nice on Sunday. And I think the overall hit. Who you got next? I'm going to go to a game that absolutely means nothing. It's the Bengals.

It's the Texans. This is a game where I think Deshaun Watson shines, knowing they're not going to get as good enough from Cincinnati as they saw. If there's any week of the season where Cincinnati might be like, you know what, man, we won last Monday. You know, I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to have an extra piece of, a piece of turkey on Christmas or whatever people are eating on on Christmas, Christmas Eve, whatever.

I just think it's a free-for-all. I still think the Bengals have a lot of talent on offense. I still think the Texans have a ton of talent on offense. I think they both dominate this games. Give me the over there with a number that seems low to me. What's you getting that number at? 46. Oh, boy.

Yeah, I like that too. Look at you. I also, speaking of overs and games that, traditionally, if you see Jets Browns this late in the season, you're like, who's watching that game? but there are draft implications. There are playoff implications. On one side of it.

And there are Sam Darnold implications as well. What's he going to look like down the stretch? So I think it's going to be an entertaining game. I also think it's going to be relatively high scoring. You know, the Browns impress me. You want to talk about like, okay, people have been impressed with the Browns because they lined up a big win and then a moral victory against the Ravens. Here's what made me feel good about the Browns.

feel good about the Browns. They showed up and took care of business in the game. They should win after that draining ball game and they took care of the Giants. I think this week, the other team in New York scores more. I think the Browns win the game, but I'm looking at like 3121. So give me the over. The numbers right now at 47. Okay. I'm going to go Saturday night. I think we differ on this one. I like the Raiders. I understand this is a big spot for the Dolphins. This is a Saturday night, 815. I think a ton of people are going to be watching this game. Whenever in the past, it feels like, just here we go. Ready? The Raiders have Mario to come in and play, I thought, very well last week. And then, you know, you see Carr earlier in the week.

He's doing media. So that makes me think he's going to play. This line should be more. Miami's a playoff caliber team, the Raiders are officially eliminated and they're only getting three points. This does not make any sense to me. So I am, I'm, I'm going to take the Raiders in a spot where people might be watching Miami for the first time and now the Raiders get their best guys back on defense with their best pass rushers. They get Abram on the back end that can help things. The Raiders are still pretty good against the run. The dolphins aren't, I should say, the Dolphers are still middle of the pack with how good and flashy

and how exotic they are defensively. They're still middle of the pack against the run. I think the Raiders can run the ball and muck it up a little bit. I think this is a weird line. I'm going to take the Raiders. You know what? You scared me

off that one being the master of all things dolphins. And listen, I never understand sometimes I'm learning this. Because gamblers will give you these truisms that I would in pro football that I never had to think about because I never gambled on pro football until I was retired obviously but I'm learning things like you know division sandwich you know like if there's two division games and in the middle there's somebody random from out of

town it's not going to go so well or like you know you're bringing up a point this line stinks right yeah but also is this not the classic got-a-havit game for miami they are backed into a corner they're playing for their playoff lives. And I'm scarred from the past, Chris, because in those spots, I've always taken a team where they are in a must-win situation. They got to have it. And it's just like it always happens in this league to me.

It really does. And I'll tell you one thing. From now and next week, good luck to people bet. If you're going to bet multiple games in this league, the next two weeks, and be really confident, good luck. That's not good news for some people who have had rough 1 through 14s

and 1 through 15s. No doubt. No doubt. And you know what happens? The lines even look better this week and next week. And shit just doesn't fucking make sense, man. It just dot makes sense. Be careful.

Hold on to your Christmas money. Hold on to it. Let me tell you something that disregard that last thing. Don't just just just hammer anything we suggest. It's the best thing for your family. family. It's the best thing for Christmas. Just do it. Okay. You need to treat yourself. You're getting socks for Christmas. If you're listening, treat yourself. Spence money. I want some of them slippers. You got them. Fur ones? The fur ones are dope. Those are us. Yeah. You haven't discovered hugs yet. No. Stanford, Steve wants hugs. Let me write a little note to Santa. Size 13. Okay. He's got the sizes ready. All right. We'll take my address offline, okay? We'll get you some green light. odd.

All right, so here's something here's something I do feel good about. Okay. Bills minus seven giving a touchdown against the Patriots.

It's not the same team and I understand that earlier in the season it was ugly for the bills and maybe that was the you know, if Cam doesn't fumble that football they probably win that game.

But at the same time that felt like the hump that you had to get over for Buffalo. They got over that hump. It was not easy. That game was ugly. There was a lot about that with the weather

that made it a quintessential spot for the Pats. That was a close game. The Bills have been playing lights out. You talked about getting linebackers back. They're playing better defensively. Josh Allen is trending up. These are important games for them. And guess what else?

It's an important game for Brian Dable as well. Who it is? I like the bills. I have a problem. I have a problem. I have a possible concern for Bill's fans out there, Chris. Give me it. Now, they're not going to remember this because they're still hammered celebrating from last Saturday.

And now it's a holiday week. And they're just going to drink all the way until this Monday night game against the Patriots for them. But the team is rolling. And I am really, really, really worried that they are going to get the most hype. and they are going to start getting all the Super Bowl predictions. And people are going to say, well, the bills, you know, they played Kansas City early in the year. And, you know, it was just a couple of turnovers.

Give me the bills to go to the Super Bowl. Give me the bills to go to the Super Bowl. I am really, really, because this thing is trending up fast. Yeah. Really fast. Yeah. And, you know, we talked about McDermott's got the defense going. Daibles, you know, coaching for a head job, I would think, next year.

And Josh Allen has just been Superman. I'm really, really worried, man. because we're going to go from not winning a playoff game. And then it's just going to be Super Bowl. Like, come on. This isn't the game. I'm worried because there's such a big brother. No, no.

I'm not worried about this game either. I'm just worried about this, this upward trend that is like superhuman right now. If there's one team I'm pulling for in the AFC, outside of the Titans, because, you know, I jumped on that bandwagon last year. I'm not getting off. You know, Diana Rossini.

She was on the bandwagon, too, but she's been trying to kick me off so she can be king of the mountain, queen of the mountain. The same week I picked the titan, she's giving me grief about them jumping off the bandwagon. I've literally picked them against the Colts.

Listen, I'm not jumping off that bandwagon, but the bills to win it all, that would be a dream. And we talked about this on the pod Sunday night. All I want is Bill's Browns. That's all I want. With a Bill's Packers Super Bowl.

Just cheese heads and people throwing people through tables. Viral videos only, of course, because there's going to be no festivities, but that would be a crazy Super Bowl. That would be incredible. But no, I like if there's a, if there's, I mean, how many times has a team, like when's the last time a team in a division had a chance to just put one on them like this, knowing what's.

And how many times on the Patriots ever played in a situation? I mean, when's the last time the Patriots were eliminated from the playoffs? And I'm not talking about the Matt Castle year where they were 11 and 5 and there down the wire the last time they were like making vacation plans probably 999 right yeah and a lot of these kids weren't born yet that's my favorite phrase this time of year when talking about the bills i had zach moss on i looked up his i had i looked up zach moss is the year he was born and i was he has aged that whole thing and i was like oh do i say it everybody says that when you have a guest on from the bills now it's like it's like the chalkiest thing

to say is, so I notice you were born this year. You know, how surreal is it? I mean, not even since you've been on. No, fuck, no, I didn't say it. I got restraint. There you go. Any other podcast would have.

What can you? Learning from other people's mediocrity. Doing some more spots, getting the name out there. All right. Turned to worm in 21. Yeah, 21's going to be a good year. Yeah, it's just,

the Patriots aren't used to this spot. So let's do college game of the week. All right. I have a team that's kind of like in the Steelers spot where really bad taste in their mouth. But then they're playing a team that has another really bad taste in their mouth. It's Marshall. It's Buffalo.

It is the Camellia Bowl. It is Friday, Christmas Day, Chris. I love that bowl. Listen, Buffalo ran for all kinds of records this year. and then they again had a brutal loss in the Mac championship game. Marshall ended the season with a loss to Rice and getting shut out at home, and then they go and losing their Conference USA title game at home to UAB. I did not like what I saw from Marshall at all.

Their quarterback started the game 0 for 11. And I just feel like Buffalo's in a great spot. Their coach was rumored to go to Illinois possibly. he's staying. Give me Buffalo minus the points here and the Camelia Bowl. I love Buffalo

because I remember the time that kid ran for I think it was 0.23 miles with football pads on that one day against that unfortunate team

on the other side of things. Jared Patterson. Jared Patterson. Holy shit. Against Ken State. Oh, the Julian Edelvins, the fighting Julian Edelman's. Yeah.

Yeah, Buffalo. Yeah. Buffalo, well, they just drug them. So I like that. I'll listen to you this week. So it's probably bad news for you. Yeah, that's all right. We got to fend you off. Yeah, let's do join. No, at least it's not Mush Makin, my co-host here. Oh, yeah. He just, you know what he went? Does he just take three weeks

off around Christmas? You know, hey, you know what's funny about making? No, but he asked for a hard out tomorrow by 2.30 p.m. He's got no kids. I'm like, what do you got to do? Um, so listen, um, um, making, we, we started doing these Sunday pickums, the entire slate, which it's the only podcast in America that does that and then posts a graphic with our winners only podcast in America that does that exclusive he went his first week one win 11 losses that's really hard to do wow but i'll tell you what he's been kicking my ass on thursday night do you know about our thursday night time machine situation i got to go to the waffle house all that yeah yeah so he to be fair to him he's just he's not a sunday guy he's just thursday guy uh shout out to make

joint bank account steve start with leg one oh um um um Let's go. It's got to be a money line. We got to get this thing cranked. Right. That's what I'm doing. I'm going Jags Money Line. Okay?

Oh, love it. I'm going to do the thing that all the Jags fans don't want to happen. They're going to win this weekend. You can't stop Minshu Mania. The Bears are bound to come back down to Earth offensively a little bit, even against the team as bad as the Jags. Give me the Jags to win. And you're going to have incredible, like, plus 300-something odds on that one.

Yeah, let's go Liberty Money Line against Coastal Carolina. The Cura Bowl, hey, audition for old Hugh Freeze. Does that matter? Do you think he's going to? No, I don't think it matters. I mean, Coastal wants to win a ball game just as bad as Hugh Freeze. Yes. That's a great game.

That's a low-key, great game. Yeah. Well, they were supposed to play. This is the game that was supposed to happen when Liberty got COVID and BYU came to play coastal. This is supposed to happen. This is amazing. I can't wait for this game. Malik Willis Liberty quarterback, really good player.

Oh, yeah. We know all about those guys here around these parts. They're pretty good. They're pretty, pretty good. So yeah, pretty pretty pretty good. I'm going to be watching that one. So I got the Jags. You have Liberty.

And as a guest picker this week, Santa Claus, who is a real person. Beautiful. So Santa- You'll finally get your kids to watch a podcast. Exactly. I was like, Dad, it was gambling. Merry Christmas. I am taking Colorado to beat Texas straight up.

The money line is 295. The odds of this joint bank. account hitting are 48 to 1. Invest in coal. All right, cool. That'll do it. Check out the regular Greenlight podcast as well. We had a really good pod earlier this week and I want to

plug it real quick. Giovanni who's a buddy of mine, 13 years old deals with a rare condition, got a lot of surgeries coming up. Big Eagles fan. Got an awesome podcast. And it's called Philly Sports with Gio, Giovanni and it's on Eagles brawl.

But anyways, this week, we did kind of a fundraiser go fund me thing for him. And you can check that out on Wednesday. It's got all his go fund me information there. You can find Travis Kelsey, D.K. Metcalfe, Zach Moss, Zach Ertz, Johnny Hecker, the whole gang, Ryan Kerrigan stopped by. So it was a really star-studded pod. And they showed up for Geo. So check that out and help make your kids Christmas. Maybe take a couple dollars off of Jags' money line and put it in Geos, go-fund me. Please. Thank you. I've said my piece.

So there's the plug on on that pod. And for everybody else listening and for Steve, Merry Christmas. Happy holidays. And we will see y'all next week.