Green Light with Chris Long - NFL Week 6. Green Light Gambling Show Presented by DraftKings.

Episode Date: October 16, 2020

(3:45) - Steve and Chris’ Week 6 Bets. (16:32) - College Game of the Week. (17:08) - Joint Bank Account Sign up for your DraftKings account at https://www.draftkings.com/sportsbook and use promo code : Greenlight Green Light with Chris Long: Subscribe and enjoy weekly content including podcasts, documentaries, live chats, celebrity interviews and more including hot news items, trending discussions from the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA, NCAA are just a small part of what we will be sharing with you. http://bit.ly/chalknetwork Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's week six in the NFL, we can only hope for a better slate than week five. And we'll start that by gloating about how we did perform last week. The SEC's just rub some dirt on it. COVID strategy is, it's not working, yielding some predictable results there. Down in Florida, of all places, first off. And fresh off his unmasking the Sanchez puts a professional face on the joint bank account. Let's get going. Hey y'all, I'm Chris Long.

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Joining me as always to get this thing done is Stanford. How's it going, Steve? Good. How are you, Christopher? I'm terrific. Yeah. Last Sunday was rough. It was very rough. I chased and then I had the over and the Hawks late Sunday night.

And I put some serious units on that one. And if you fall along with the game, it was one of those things where you kind of had to pick and choose between which bet you're rooting for. And it was a mind fuck. And then at the end, you know, you were dead in the water. You weren't dead in the water. and then I'm up at like 11 o'clock at night just to watch myself lose money. I wish I had just gone to bed.

Yeah, I mean, Sunday night too, after Sunday scleries and all that stuff, that's not a good way to end your night. Not good. Especially when all the Hawks had to do to cover on the 55 total or push it would be to convert on that two-point conversion and or pick the ball up on that Kirk Cousins fumble

at the end of the game. Oh. Just pick it up. I mean, that could have made your show. I mean, like, literally, all the guy has to do is pick that wet son of a bitch up and run into the end zone. Uh, it was, it was, it was awful. It was awful. You're still thinking about it, so it's pretty bad.

Yeah, it was a bad weekend. So, we got to be better this weekend. So, before we get going, we are going to take a solid minute to congratulate ourselves and tell the green light faithful why this pot is a must. Listen, combined eight and two last week. Obviously, I didn't bet plays I gave out. Both of us are going four and one on the week five slate, which was a highlight of, again, a really crappy slate. The highlights include me giving out the Dolphins money line at plus 320 and predicting the show of a Rams Washington game. And for you, Stanford, Steve, Miami Heat Game 5 money line at plus 250.

That feels like 30 days ago. Yeah, it does. And you cashed it on the over. I could not believe it. I was scared to bet Bama Ole Miss. I should never doubt you. And they pretty much covered in the first half. Yeah, we needed one possession in the second half and we were good.

Oh my God, dude. It was stealing and I'm an idiot. So let's just start with you from an NFL perspective this weekend since you were really on it last week. What's your most sure bet this Sunday? Oh, ooh. All right. I'll say, I think Tampa. And it's just because the Green Bay, I love how they started.

They've obviously gotten themselves better where they need to get better. But they don't have one turnover yet this year. Like that, that's got to start. I'm not saying it's going to even out. But I just feel like Green Bay is due for a game that they're not going to be their best. I think Tampa's pissed off. I think Tampa's built defensively. I love some of those guys in the secondary Whitfield from Minnesota.

I believe that kid. He's been all over to place. So I think Tampa's defense matches up well with Green Bay's offense. I know people just want to talk about Rogers versus Brady, but there's so much other things to like in this game. And I think Tampa can show. I just think Tampa's more versatile as a team, more balanced. So I'll take Tampa as a short home dog as my favorite pick this week.

You know what? it's funny because I feel like I trust Green Bay a lot more this year, but it's mostly because of the offense. The reason I didn't trust them last year was the defense, and I'm not sure I trust them anymore. There's players I like, but to your point, maybe the more complete football team is Tampa. And ironically, the quarterback that really has set the league on fire has been obviously Aaron Rogers, and that dream team set up down there has not yielded like wow numbers from Tom Brady. or wow moments. I think last week was a big illustration

of how far they have to go to implement the culture that he's used to. No doubt. That game 10 days ago was awful. I'll go with my most confident pick here. And you tell me why this stinks so bad. I know the Shanahan owning McVeigh theme is kind of... Yeah.

But the Rams giving a field goal in San Fran makes no sense to me. Maybe I've just given up on the Niners and my confirmation bias is so strong that, again, I said they're not making the playoffs. I don't trust them. They pulled Jimmy G. at the half. I know they were because of his ankle

and that sort of thing, but I don't know if that locker room's in a good place right now. And talking to people around the Rams facility, like people that know what's going on there, this is a we take it personal game for them. You know, because of that thing I mentioned off the top, the Shanahan McVeigh, you know, situation. So give me the Rams.

I think they play angry. think they kick their ass. Yeah, I don't see how this game goes off at three. I think it's got at least three and a half on it. I mean, it feels like we talk every week about the Rams having to travel and come back and travel and come back. Like,

is this a time it catches up with them? Like, I mean, I watched that game last week here, you know, being here in D.C. And just why I watch, I personally watch Aaron Donald every week and I feel like I don't watch him

enough. Does that make sense? Yeah, no, it does make sense. It's kind of, I feel the same way about how much we talk about him. We talk about him every week, but he normalizes his greatness. He is a victim of his own greatness. The way he gets after people and then his demeanor is just like, you know, seeing him at the Super Bowl last year and his boys, you know, in a party environment.

Like, he's obviously got a switch. Were you in us that night? Not, no, not that. night. That was the next night. That was a knock down dragout night. But Aaron is, to your point, a lot of fun to hang with, easygoing one of the sweetest people you'll meet.

Yeah. But when that switch flips, he is the meanest motherfucker on green grass. And he's got I call them clamps. Bice grip. Clamps. Like just, and then once he gets under your shoulder or into your

chest, like forget it. How do you think he makes, I mean, like, there's not just the control of a blocker, which is insane, but also when he wins a rush and he wins so many of them, he'll have rushes where he's getting washed, but his hands are so strong. He could get the tip of your jersey flying by you and you're like a tractor beam. He makes big quarterbacks look like rag dolls and he puts a finger on him and does it. So the strongest dude in the NFL pound for pound, hands down, and probably the meanest as well. I like the Rams because you know you think this is probably a letdown.

maybe that's the that's the thought going into it but i don't think Vegas understands how personal the rams take this and i hate to to tempt the Vegas guy like that i know more than them but um yeah give me here your number two here uh i got i was this is my favorite matchup of the weekend it's browns it's steelers um i was looking at the history of this rivalry this is the highest over under it's 51 there's never been an over under between these two teams higher than four 47 and a half. What?

Never. Ever. Well, the Browns are good now. Well, are they? We're going to find out. I know they're good. I don't know that they're great or a contender. We talked about this earlier in the week.

And you like... I like... Remember a couple of weeks ago, we talked about how aren't we just going to take all these overs, over, overs, overs. It's starting to feel like the numbers are starting to match now. Right. So I think that's a really good number

because I think both these teams could score. However, I do like the Steelers here. I don't think Cleveland will run the ball on Pittsburgh as they did last week against the Colts as they did in previous victories. I do like what I've seen from Ben with Claypool. And in the past, when Ben has liked somebody, he will feed them continuously. And now with Ebron there as another red zone target, you got Claypool. Juju still feels like he's fine in his role, which is fine. Because he's talented enough.

Not fine for my fantasy team. Sorry, sorry, sorry. Deiante is another guy that just is a game breaker anytime he touches the ball. You know what you're getting with Connor in the run game. I just, I mean, I like what I've seen from Pittsburgh. I do not think Cleveland will do what they want. It won't be as fluid as Cleveland has been offensively in the past couple weeks.

I think Pittsburgh's built to make it tougher for them. I thought Baker got really careless in the second half of that game. They could have blown. that game. He's been a lot better. But like I said, I think it comes down to Pittsburgh making Cleveland one-dimensional and not being able, Cleveland not being able to run

the ball as well as they have in prior weeks. So I'll lay the three with Pittsburgh. Yeah, absolutely. And to me, I would agree on Pittsburgh. My 2020 Super Bowl champion, or 2021 Super Bowl champion, Pittsburgh

Steelers, the most complete team in the league at this point in my opinion. partially a product of there being no good defenses. When we talked about, you know, Cleveland, and this is how this conversation intertwines nicely, Cleveland, their offense scored 32 points, quote, unquote, last weekend against the best team in the league defensively. Okay, that team's missing Darius Leonard,

and they've set that reputation up by playing, you know, I don't know what old adage I want to use here, but some shitty teams. And, you know, Cleveland really only scored 23 points against these guys. You can't forget to pick six and the safety. I am not sold on Cleveland as being a contender yet. They have to beat the Steelers of the world. They have to beat the Ravens of the world.

I don't think they do it, but I do like the over here. To your point. I absolutely do. I don't think Cleveland has the guys to guard everybody that you ran through on the Pittsburgh side. And to your point about the run defense and forcing Baker to make dumb throws at times. I think this is the prime weekend to get some turnovers created. I think Pittsburgh's going to be in the 30s.

Now, where Cleveland lands, I don't know, but I would assume it's north of 20. They have enough talent to get there. I like Cleveland or Pittsburgh as well, but give me the over. Who's your number three? Chiefs Monday night. It's three and a half now. I just, I love

that they lost. I think it helps them. And on the other side, I don't, I don't like what I've seen from Buffalo. and I know Alan had some turnovers. I'm talking about the defense. The defense is not, I thought that was going to be the strength. I thought they were going to be, you know, even more of a pain in the ass and a bully than they have been in years past.

And they've carried them the past couple years. And now it's not good. I don't like what, I mean, Tennessee, and that is a whole other conversation. Tennessee is the ultimate just why? doesn't anyone give them credit because they're not exciting? Then I saw stats like Tannahill is last, I don't even know what it was, 20 games. I think it's all the same stat. They're like MVP numbers.

Yeah, he's better than Mahomes. Yeah. It's crazy. Yeah. But Tennessee is a whole other conversation. That's what numbers do lie. There you go. Nice.

Nice. Yeah. But I think Kansas City comes in. Like I said, a little bad taste in their mouth, a chance to prove something against a team that has really struggled defensively. So I like Kansas City here in this spot. It's just about the spot and coming off a loss and knowing what they can attain with the win with the team that is highly thought of with Josh Allen and the bills. I agree with you.

I think the bills are going to be looking their wounds here. But to your point, I said this after the first quarter of the season, if you'd have told me a quarter of the season in that the bills look like they could be in the Super Bowl, if not for the defense not playing well, I would have been shocked. they've completely flipped from an identity standpoint and I don't know if that's a product of the exes and those or the personnel or if it's the defense relaxing and thinking okay now we're an offensive football team a lot of the times when you are and this goes into the Cam Newton conversation when people are like well

the Pats would have beat them if they're playing Cam Newton well Kansas City would have been more ready they would have been locked in for a dog fight and a lot of times defenses can fall into those traps well we're going to have 30 points if your offense sucks, you try to play shutout football. And I'm not sure what's going on up there. There have been some linebacker issues with health, but those seem to be short up.

I don't know. I like Kansas City as well. That's a great call. Give me the Bears, though. I was looking at the under here in the Bears Carolina game, which is a scary proposition in 2020, so I chickened out. I really like it. If you want a teaser on the side here, T, yeah, they call me the T's God.

Don't forget that. I got the bears and the Ravens in a teaser, which people aren't going to like in Philly, but that's what I got in a teaser here. I got the bears, though. That's my third pick I'm giving out. They're around a one-point dog right now, so it's basically a pick-em.

One thing that they're going to do really well is take away Teddy and Matt Rule's strength right now. And what that strength is is that Matt Rule is getting people open. And Teddy is hitting guys with a ton of separation. He's hitting the underneath stuff. Who takes that stuff away better than anybody, almost the Bears? And Khalil Mack, Keem Hicks, Robert Quinn, that front Brent Urban. Shout out to my guy.

Wah-hoo-wah. You saw the havoc they created last week. If they show up with 10 days to prepare, I think they get this win. All right. Yeah. I like, looking at that game, I'm like, wow, this is interesting. the spread is tight. You don't know what's going to give

with Chicago's bread and butter on defense and Carolina with Joe Brady's system throwing it around. Two legendary bridge kind of quarterbacks where people can't decide to give them their credit or not. Do we love Teddy? Do we think, you know, everybody loves Teddy, but do we think Teddy, you know,

it's the same thing with Nick Foes. He's streaky. He's had highs and lows. These guys are trying to prove later in their careers that they are franchise guys. And it's an interesting game. But anytime Nick Foles is in the game, you know, I respect the urge to stay away. I just think this weekend they get after him. I look for Chicago.

Kwan's short, too, is out for the year, too, with Carolina. Maybe Chicago tries to run the ball, keep Carolina off the field, too. Yeah, really good. Underrated. Let's go to the college game of the week here. It's very simple, Chris. I have not. I don't know if I've given it out on this podcast, but on mine, it's a trend.

We couldn't do it last week because, Kansas didn't play, but we've just gone against Kansas every single week, and it's treated as well. We are still undefeated with it. This week, they are playing West Virginia. West Virginia is laying 22, and we were laying at 22 just because they're playing Kansas, and they are not good. So take West Virginia minus 22. I love that. Yeah, Fade in Kansas is like, it's my middle name. Okay, that's great. Joint bank account. Let's get a little wild here. Last week, J.B. Smooth knocked us off our perch. We were two and oh, smooth.

You know, like maybe the problem was we only gave him one option, which was the Jets game, and he couldn't pick against his Jets. Give me something off the wall here. Let's go Washington football team. Moneyline. Ooh, I want to get crazy here. You think this dude in Denver's playing? The way it sounds, yeah. Yeah, let's go Denver in the Money Line.

I feel like that could be the crazy upset of the week. It's a double digits line, I believe, or around there. But if we can get the numbers on the money line there. Plus 360? Yeah, dude. I was a plus 320 last week. If I hit two in a row, I don't know what we got to do. But I like it.

I think it's going to be if you're looking for like a long shot here, let me go Denver, Money Line. And we'll see what Sanchez likes in the third leg. Well, you can't take USC because they're not playing this week. Yeah, lame. Carolina, Chicago this weekend. What do you think happens? And what gives Rule and Brady this juice with Bridgewater?

Let's see. I feel like the most important thing for Chicago coming off their last week is handling those last-minute situations the way they did. Having confidence in Foles late in the game, I still think it's, you know, really tough situation for Trubisky. I didn't love that, that they pulled them so quickly. because, you know, Knicks had these, even this past game on Thursday against the Bucks. Like, he's throwing balls that could have easily been interceptions and he kind of gets away with a little more, right? He has a much longer leash.

He takes more chances, but he also. Yeah. And he has a much longer leash than Mitch and then they just yanked him. So I'm like, I mean, you can't go back now because then it sends the wrong message. It's just really unfortunate what's gone on there. But I think Coach Ruhle has got a great pedigree. I think he's, you know, Joe Brady's getting more and more comfortable. with Teddy Bridgewater, but I still see the Bears as a real force.

I think their defensive line is playing out of their head. I think they have more confidence now with Foles. And so they're just running the table right now. It feels like, and they're winning these games late in games, even if it's the other team making a mistake like Brady last week, it doesn't matter. That's just one more knots in their belt, right? Together, that group, experiencing success together,

shared struggle, experience success, and you build on that, right? Even if it's a little bit artificial because the other team screwed up. So I just see Chicago taking the win. All right, man. So that I feel good about this weekend. Famous last words. Famous last words. And you've been so on fire in college, buyer beware on Stanford Steve.

He's been crushing it the last week. You keep going with your multiple unit plays. Multiple unit plays, man. Multiple units. All right. We'll check back with y'all next week. As always, Gamble. responsibly and uh choose draft kings