Green Light with Chris Long - NFL Week Zero. Green Light Gambling Show Presented by DraftKings.

Episode Date: September 4, 2020

(3:30) - NFC East. (7:14) - NFC North. (9:50) - NFC South. (13:51) - NFC West. (15:22) - AFC North. (18:40) - AFC East. (21:18) - AFC South. (24:21) - AFC West. A Big Thank You to the newest Green Light partner, DraftKings. Sign up for your DraftKings account at https://www.draftkings.com/ and use promo code : Greenlight Green Light with Chris Long: Subscribe and enjoy weekly content including podcasts, documentaries, live chats, celebrity interviews and more including hot news items, trending discussions from the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA, NCAA are just a small part of what we will be sharing with you. http://bit.ly/chalknetwork Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey, y'all, football season is back. Can't wait. I also can't wait to enter into this partnership with Draft Kings. I'm really excited about it. Big announcement. Greenlight Pod, Draft Kings, doing a gambling show all season long with my man, Stanford Steve. And that partnership has actually begun.

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It's gambling, it's sponsorship, it's football. It's my friend Stanford, Steve, who's going to be with us all fall. This is awesome. Steve, how you doing? Awesome, awesome, Chris. The most important thing you said there, sponsorship. That's a key thing. You see we're going on year two now here with the green light.

It is, it's pop it up all over. But pumped to have it going, pumped to have some stuff to talk about. So happy to be back. I really am. Dude, it's like, it's been tough not seeing your friends, but everybody's kind of kept in touch. But the one thing that will really elevate all the group texts and everything will be football gambling.

No doubt. No doubt. I mean, ESPN and us coming out with the schedule now. and like knowing we got some Thursday nights, you know, SEC taking a place of the Big Ten at noon. That's just, it's, it's, yeah, yeah. Yeah, it's, it's there, baby.

It's there for the taken. Can we, the PSA to all the football players around the country, you guys are doing a tremendous public service right now, whether you're college athletes or pro athletes. Be safe, be responsible. And let's get through this season. Let's have some fun, okay, guys,

if you're listening to the Greenlight Gambling podcast, which I know you're not supposed to. So basically we're going to go division by division. And let's see if anything jumps out at us, whether they be prop bets or otherwise, player props or totals with these respective teams here. We've got the NFCs. Let's start off right there. Is there anything that jumps out of you from the NFC East?

I'm seeing Cowboys, Nine and a Half wins. Giant Six, Eagles 9, Washington, 5. Love the Cowboys. Love the Cowboys. We had, I know you've had Bill Barnwell on. Yeah. We had Bill Barnwell on with Van Pell and I on Scott's podcast this week. And I wanted to talk about the Cowboys.

I love, I just love the idea of them offensively. You know, I still think the line gets overshadowed with how good they are. I had a, Jack Martin's just incredible to me. I can watch that guy line up every day. Yeah. But, you know, you add C.D. Lamb, who's a receiver, you could throw anywhere outside in the slug. one-on-one, you know, trips receiver packages.

Zeeks, obviously, the horse that's going to go to. Dak still is proven himself to me. Barnwell said that he thinks their offense is going to be better than the Chiefs. Now, that's saying something there. I just think they're better, and I don't think anyone is in their class in the division. You like the Cowboys over. I caution you as far as they're out of conference scheduling, but I think they're going to be damn good.

I'm not going to argue with you there. There's one bet that stood out here for me. I think there's a, if you want to help Vegas, because Vegas has been hurting, I'm going to give this play out. Washington plus, how many zeros?

15,000 to win the Super Bowl, plus 1,300 to win the division. If you feel bad for Vegas and you want to chip in, that'd be a good value there. Also a player prop. Chase Young over under 8.5 sacks. I like the under, but it's going to be close. If you look at it, Nick Bosa had 8.5 on the nose last year.

Joey had 10.5 his rookie year. Nick Bosa was on a damn good defense with a lot of leads and some good guys on D-line. I understand the Washington D-Lines very deep and very good, but there's also a lot of mouse to feed, too, on the edge. I think Chase Young might be just under 8.5 sacks, which would be still a very successful rookie year. I can't wait to watch him play football, moving here now, Chris, and watching their practice updates every day.

And being on the field with him a couple times in his career, I can't wait to see how he translate. He's like nobody I've ever seen. Like, I went to two Ohio State games last year and just, I made it a point to go out an individual and just watch him. Because I've never seen somebody that big and look like it. It's like a Greek goddess. Yeah.

God. He's sculpted. Like it's unbelievable. I can't wait to see. I actually want to see you being able to break them down and see what you see. I'm so afraid to make a determination on pass rushers because it's just a guessing game. And I know like I'd feel good about being right and saying he's going to be this or that. I love to just sit back and watch these rookies play, especially the rushers.

It's so hard to predict. I'm taking the under. It sounds like you take the over. on that if you had I don't know you know way more about me I love the defensive line talent they have I don't know

what they're going to do with snaps wise they are going to be trailing a lot in games so I don't know how many opportunities they're going to have so it's a that's a that's a really good number though I'll tell you that

NFC North real quick we got the Bears seven and a half wins lion six and a half Packers eight and a half nine I'll start with a good value here that I think I see on player props

Trubesky to be the starter day one plus 130. Dude, I just talked to Dan Orlovsky. The word is that the vibe they're getting is with Nick's ceiling, you know, Nick's not going to be the difference that's going to win you a Super Bowl. It's all about that defense. Give the kid that you drafted one more chance

to get this thing right, day one. And if shit hits the fan, you've got a Super Bowl MVP waiting in the wings, but I think week one, Trubisky is going to be the starter. That would be a player prop I'd give out in this division. Yeah, that's plus money, you said. Yeah.

Because I saw like, Foles is like minus 160 or something, right? Minus one, 67. Trubisky's plus 130. And I tend to agree. And Nick Foll is my boy. I think eventually he wins that job. But Mitchell Trubisky is probably going to be a starter week one. Got it.

I've come to the fruition that I think everything is better in the NFL when the bears are good. Yes. So I like rooting for the first. the Bears. They still got enough pieces to me on the defensive side, no doubt. So they can win the division if you get the good Nick Foles. I mean, they could be anything if you get the good Nick Foles. But the question's been, which Nick Foles are you going to get? You wonder if maybe Matt Nagy, the Kansas City connection, is going to bring him more towards being that kind of guy that he was in Philly in both stops. And not the St. Louis or Jacksonville, Nick Foles. But, I mean, they're

They're a hard team to call here. Really hard. And I think the biggest unit to me that makes a difference in this division is the Vikings offensive line. Yeah. If they're good, I think the Vikings are top in this league. But I just, I look at the way the other teams are built. And I think they're able to feast on that, on that Vikings offensive line a little bit.

So I would lean towards Minnesota winning the division, but I would, I'm rooting for the Bears over. Yeah. Vikings plus 160 to win the division. They're a favorite. Packers plus 180. So I didn't love any of the values there as far as winning the division was concerned, certainly not winning the Super Bowl.

If there's a Super Bowl winner out of this division, I don't know what I'll do, but maybe you can comment and tell me what I should do if I lose that bet. Nobody's winning the Super Bowl out of this division. I save this clip. NFC South. Listen, the prop bet that stood out to me, Drew Brees leading the league in passing plus 2,500, if I read that right. He's done it seven times, but there's no reason to think he's not going to light it up as far as the yardage thing is concerned.

Also, Godwin in Tampa to lead the league in receptions plus 1,600. You know, I think he's going to get a lot of balls this year. I think he is the guy who touches the rock the most when you look at him and Mike Evans with Tom's arm and where he is in his career. career, I think Godwin's going to get a lot, a lot of touches. All right. I will say this, the Saints, this is it. This is their last stand. Researcher from our show and I were going through the cap for next year.

That team is screwed as far as the cap next year. Yeah. So are your Eagles, too, by the way. Yeah. But this is it. And I just can't, every time I think about, like, You could write a, do a movie on the endings to their last three seasons. Like, it's incredible.

Yes. From where they have been and what they've done and Breezes accomplishments and implement Michael Thomas and seeing what he does and then bringing in Camara. And then it's just, it's so good. It's so, it's just fun to watch. And then it gets down the crunch time and they get it handed to them. And it's just, this is, it's got to be it. and I really worry about the tires on Drew.

I know there's been some armed stuff. I've seen some guys talk about the release and the throwing motion and all that stuff and how many deep outs he's thrown compared to what he used to. So that is a major concern for me. I know they got my man famous Jameson behind them. So they helped themselves there and God only knows what he could do with Peyton, as you mentioned. That's a great move by James. I thought that was a really mature move.

moved by him. But then, I mean, you go down Atlanta, Carolina, like, I don't know if there's another division that has two teams that I think are going to be as low as those two. Does that make any sense? Like, I think it's Tampa and the world. You think there's going to be a big difference between the, I will push back because, and maybe this is fool's goal for me seeing the second

half of last team with the Falcons once they reshuffled things. Seven and a half is there total. I would take the over on that. I also think it's a decent. Wow. Okay. It's kind of like, hey, fuck it, throw your hat in there. Plus 5,000 would be Super Bowl odds for them.

Plus 800 to win the division. Now, plus 800 to win the division, I might just have some fun with that because I like Dan Quinn. I will pull for Matt Ryan. And the second half of last year, they looked like a different team. Yeah, but you also had that crazy streak a couple years back. but it was like, I think it lasted eight years where a new team won a division or the last place team won the division and next year in that division. So it's been a show there.

Yeah. I really am intrigued to see Matt Ruhl in Carolina though. You know, Joe Brady calling the plays and knowing what McAfrey could do. And you saw what Brady did with Edwards Alair at LSU, Teddy Bridgetwater, you know, getting his due and getting his spot. They'll be fun to watch. but I just, I don't think they're in the class of Tampa and New Orleans. And when you look at Tampa, I just think the defense is going to be improved just because of the situations that their offense put with the turnovers. Yes. Put them in last year. So you know Brady's not going to turn the ball over like James did.

They had another piece with four net. Obviously, I think that hype train is going to be astronomical by the time we get to 10 days from now. Get it now at nine and a half wins. Get the over on that thing. NFC West. Love it. This is what I'm talking about here. Fun division.

You told me last night, has anything changed, that you like the Niners to take a step back? I do. I've been watching the injuries and practice, Chris. There's a lot of stuff that's got to go right. You know that, especially in a camp like this.

And you mentioned it with the lions. and need a fast start. I think the Niners, they better start out well. Look at their schedule. Yeah. They better, I think it's,

they have to be four in one for them to go over. But 10 and a half, it was the number that I had. I just, I think that division's so improved. Like, if you're going to say the Rams

or the Cardinals are the worst team, I think like the Rams are the worst team in the division. Like, yeah. Look at that roster. Yeah. It's still,

you know, and then you can't go to sleep on either of those bottom. teams. No, the Cardinals. I mean, nobody ever wants to go to Arizona. You know, you fall asleep, that late window, you know, down in Glendale. It's kind of nice late in the year if you live in the cold. Like when we used to go out there in St. Louis, it was beautiful. And in Seattle, you know, you know what they're going to bring to the table. So this, I think it's a, if I was going to stack up, if I was going to say which division will account for the most wins this year, I think I might

take this division. I think all these teams could be, could win seven games. I really do. I'd have to look closer, but I feel the same way about the AFC North. Okay. Yeah, because, well, let's get to the AFC north, right up to bat in the AFC. Here's one I love, and I think we

both like this one, Bengals five and a half wins. They lost like every game by one possession last year. Joe Burroughs got to be good for a few wins. Everything I'm hearing is that he's the real deal. You want him to be the real deal? Like, has got a man crush on Joe Burrow.

Bring, bring the money home, Joe. I'm going to take, this is one of the totals I'm most excited about. They have so much talent at the skill position, Chris,

on offense. That's why I think nothing to take away from Burrow, but I thought Burrow last year had a significant advantage over every guy he spread out on his offense last year. And the guy that I keep hearing about

and the guy that I miss watch and play all last year, AJ Green. Jay Green is in the conversation for the best receiver in the game. And he really is. And I know he plays in Cincinnati. That's why people always never put him in the top three. And he should be in that conversation.

Their offensive line cannot be worse than it was. It cannot be worse. Mixon just got signed. They drafted T. Higgins. The receivers are stacked. So I like this offense. I think they could do some damage. The division is very well improved.

It's another reason why I like the Ravens Under. I don't think Lamar can eclipse last year. I think he'd be right there because he's going to have to throw the ball better and he's going to be better at throwing the ball as these guys do get better with that. But Cleveland is crazy to me knowing that there's no hype now, but they're still at like eight and a half. Yeah. Over under, that's a lot, man.

That's a lot. And Pittsburgh, I, you know, You can't doubt them. You know they're going to be there. I think it speaks to with the Browns. I look at them. They have so much talent. They might have more offensive skilled talent

outside the quarterback position than anybody in the division. And in my personal opinion, I think the AFC North scares me when the NFC West because I think San Francisco, as you said, is going to take a step back.

Seattle might take a little step back. And I think that the Bengals and the Browns have as much upside, almost as the rammed. Just to be a pain in the ass, you're saying. I got you. I got you.

And the Browns, listen, if Baker comes out, you know, slinging it, they're going to be good. Yeah. But that eight and a half win total in that division tells you how good they're going to be, and they still might not make the playoffs. Yeah, that's a lot of wins for that division. You're right. Now, the Steelers, nine wins, I'm rushing to put that bet in because I don't understand the trepidation. I understand that Ben's got an injury history.

He's older, that sort of thing. They're old lines old. They add Claypool. their defense. They lose the interior guy to Philly and Hargraves. All their guys are back. They franchise Bud Dupree. You saw what Minkin Fitzpatrick did last year.

They're going to be good. They're going to be very good. You could have put 15 quarterbacks on that Pittsburgh team last year, and they would have been the AFC championship. I mean, they're going to be good this year. So I don't want to count them out. I'll take the overall on those bad boys. Over on Pittsburgh.

Yeah. And then the AFCs, Here's one that I'll just say, Bill's Mafia, baby. I'm Bill's Mafia. I said the other day, if I could be reincarnated on any team in the NFL, it would be the Buffalo Bills. Give me the long shot odds for them to win the Super Bowl. It's plus 2,500 to win the Super Bowl,

plus 120 to win the division. Actually, I think that division is going to be up in the air, but by the time the bills get to the postseason, I think they'll be rolling. Wow. I'm sorry, I just can't get, over not seeing Josh Allen

lateral that ball against the Texan last year. It was awful. I can't. Like, but I know people, well, it was one play, it's it still shows me that in that second half, he just he lost his, he lost

all his technique, his footwork was out of, like when the heat got on him, he went back to his old ways. And that scares me because now you bring in a guy like Stefan Diggs who threw how, many temper tantrums because he wasn't getting the ball enough in Minnesota. I still think New

England wins the division. I really do. So I know that. Not a great value there at plus 130, but I mean, far away. I mean, if everything is, is what I'm saying about Cam, like, dude's an MVP. But they lost high tower. They lost your show. I understand. The defense, if you're going to get them, you've got to get them early. Yeah. You know what I'm saying? You know, as far as the defense goes that that that I I totally hear you on that um but I I mean still got the guys in the secondary I like that a lot secondary still great even though they could come so um I I just I'm just it's ingrained in my head I can't see somebody else winning that division you know what so I'm not betting against the Patriots I think a fun little flyer to take would be both the

bills and the Patriots to win the Super Bowl the Patriots are plus 2,000. Those are two teams that, whoever comes out of that division, I'm not going to scoff at in the postseason. Because if New England comes out of division, that means they're still good. And Cam is rolling.

By all accounts, he's rolling in camp and they like him. And usually don't hear stuff like that coming out of New England. Like things don't leak out. I've talked to a few people that are like, yeah, this dude's a real deal still. It'll be fun to see what Josh and Cam do. And the bills, they're fun.

So, you know, for me, Bill's Mafia, had your best. I thought for sure that Bill was, going to get four net. I really did. I thought he was going to end up there. That would make too much sense, wouldn't it? Just remind me of the old Corey Dillon thing. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. We did the AFC East. We've got two divisions left here. AFC South. Let's start with everybody's favorite. Everybody's favorite. Listen, the Texans are going to have a bad year. No. No. They're total,

no their total seven and a half maybe i'm putting too much steak in philip rivers and frank rike uh reuniting or losing hopkins and the defense having nobody on it outside j j watt who hasn't been healthy and that's really hard to come back from everything he's come back from seven and a half is a win total i'll take the under on that win total okay i i'm just I don't know. I always find myself rooting for the Texans. I don't know why. I just, I do, I think, a couple years. I don't know. I believe in Deshaun. I think he knows he can play better. David Johnson could be a sneaky, awesome player. Yeah. You don't believe that. No, no, no, I respect David Johnson. I understand that David Johnson. I understand that David Johnson. It's unfortunate the way he really had a rolling injuries, where he was playing, that sort of thing.

Like, I feel for him. And it's an impossibility to walk into that situation. It really fucks you over. Like, even if you're excited to go to Houston, you're like, I got to go to Houston. And I'm the guy that we traded D-Hop for. You know, the most beloved players in the NFL that everybody respects. So talk about having the deck stacked against you. That's tough.

The first game you have and you're not great. and you see Red Zone on the Jumbotron and D-Hops lighting somebody up in the NFC West with that stable of receivers there you're going to be like, you're going to feel this big, and it's not fair to David Johnson. I like the Colts over nine wins, though.

I love the Colts. Really? I think the most interesting fit to me as far as a player this year is Rivers. Yeah. Because, I mean, there's plenty of people, you know, showing the tape last year about how, you know, it's done, and he's done.

It's, I thought it was pretty telling for Reich of all the guys who I think a ton of as an offensive guy to say, yeah, we'll take him in. And, you know, it most likely would be a one and done, but we'll see. I think it's fascinating. He's a brilliant coach, and I tend to believe in him a great deal. When I was in Philly, I always said, listen, coach deserved a lot of credit for that team, but Frank Reich also deserved a lot of credit for what the offense did. AFC West. Hold on, I just want you have shot, Mike Brable.

Oh, we love Mike. We love the Titans. There was nobody that loved the Titans more than the Greenlight Pod contingency here. I mean, we were all over it. We love the Titans. So no slander there. I just am going to stay away from Titans bets this year. It's too close to home.

AFC West. Shot Khan, shut up. Yeah, got to get to Jaggs. Jacks mentioned. Shout out of Shot Khan. He probably listens to the pod. AFC West. AFC West.

There's one bet that I'm going to give out with a lot of confidence here. Chiefs are going to be a better football team this year. 11 and a half is too short for them. They're going to be at 12 or 13. Wow. That goes against everything, Chris. The motivation out there, you just won a Super Bowl. Your quarterback just got paid.

You lost an offensive lineman because he's a doctor. It's, wow, you really think that. I do. Here's why. Last year, do you remember when the Colts beat him up at home? Do you remember when the Texans beat him up at home? Do you remember when PAC got hurt? And, you know, we were relying on, who was it, to win that game against the Vikings? Matt Moore.

Matt Moore, who's a baller. Shout out to Matt Moore. I mean, yeah, Pac-12. Yeah, but like there were so many things that went wrong for them. There was a time last year when we all said, what's wrong with the Chiefs? there was like in the middle of the season we were like what's wrong with the chiefs like is this is are we seeing pat take a step back is he is he no nobody was saying that there was a time now now you're making stuff up for the defense no you're making fake headlines

for the lot of i'm on my new england patriots the whole world's against us nobody has been against you for 20 years um no but here's the deal with with with the chiefs spags did and i said this last fall and i caught some shit for it one of his best jobs if if not his best job in his coaching career, making that defense a strength in a way in the postseason. I mean, it went from like just what is going on out there when I watched him early in season against like the lions

and teams like that, to this is a good unit. And he got people, he got those guys going. You get Chris Jones back. You know, those guys are going to be motivated. I really do believe that because they haven't had an offseason

where they're doing all the crazy partying. You know, COVID has kind of put a, damper on the Super Bowl glow. I think that they're very motivated. Okay. And I, in that division, listen, I love Drew Locke. Love that he knows words to the young GZzy song that we saw him. He sure does.

He knows those young GZi words. There's new receivers. I get it. There's going to be a home field advantage for them that nobody else has because it's mile high. It's not contingent on fans. The Raiders, we just don't know. The Chargers, you remember.

really think Tyrod Taylor, the bridge guy that he is and no disrespect to Tyra Taylor at this stage in his career, he's there for a reason. I don't think of that division there's anybody that's strong. You talk about a gap between the number one team and the rest of the division. I think that the, I think

the Chiefs are going to run away with this thing. Okay. Just a couple things on the Chiefs. I think they their home field advantage gets negated more than anybody in the league. I think now you're going to Kansas City. It's not like it has been. I think that's huge.

I just see these guys. I mean, you know, personally the players more than I do, but the idea coming off a championship and nowhere it's like to repeat, and now that everybody has another year on you, I think it's so tough to overcome and you have to have a crazy different mindset to that. And I just, I'm not sure if the youngsters have that. Yeah, I'm not saying they can't get it or they don't will. they will not get it, but I think it's still tough.

And I think it worked out perfectly for them last year. The Raven, everybody talked about the Ravens. The Chiefs just snuck in the back door, boom, all of a sudden they got. Everybody, now they snuck in the back door. See, this is what I'm talking about. People counting them out last year. No, I'm saying, no, listen, every, I saw, they didn't have any of the shine. I thought all the pressure was on the Ravens.

Yes, you know what I'm saying? And then they just came in, oh, shit, we got, we got home for him. the Chiefs are good again. We're going to a Super Bowl. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. So I think, I thought they got to, when you said they were struggling all that, they got to work on all that stuff because they didn't have to worry about everybody.

Well, what's wrong? I thought they, we should have been more saying what, I mean, the Colts, that Sunday night game went in and beat the crap out of that. Yes. You know?

And it was just like, oh, you know, it's the Chiefs, they'll figure it out, whatever. And I think they really just got to go do that. They didn't have to answer the questions of what's wrong,

what's wrong, what's wrong? Because everybody was talking about how good the race. There was a distraction there. This is Tom Brady's last stand. And, you know, are they still going to have to go to New England? Oh, I remember when New England was supposed to go 16 and O, and their defense was the Steelers.

Bored up. Yeah, come on. They played the Jets twice. Yeah, I mean, we were like, is this the best defense we've ever seen? I'm like, have you seen the teams they're playing? And listen, I think that they work so hard to get over this hump. Andy knows what it means, you know, he's not going to let these guys get complacent. You have a leader in Patrick Mahomes, who I think is a real.

who I think is a real deal leader. And you have older players on the team that have been beat by New England repeatedly. And to see them finally get over that hump and the changing of the guard that occurred, I've talked about this day where New England got beat by Miami at home and Kansas City simultaneously secured home field advantage. All these things were going on at once. And I think we'll look back on that day in 10 years. And I think most people agree on this and saying, like, there was a seismic shift in the AFC.

And I think the chiefs know what that means because they've struggled through it a little bit. They've had the tough losses. They've had a reputation. And I think that they'll know what this means to defend it. I do. Okay. Yeah. So I might be burning my money. I agree with you as far as the division. They are, they are in their own tier. Yeah. Yeah. No doubt. So from the season win total, I could, I could see the over. I just, when we start getting to the nitty gritty in the playoffs, I think, I think it's going to be a lot tougher. No doubt about it. And if it was 10.5 wins, you'd probably feel real good, huh? Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's a big difference there.

Absolutely. Steve, thanks, man. It feels good to have you on again. Good to talk about this stuff. We'll be back next week. Next Friday, we'll have our week one picks. We'll get into some college picks, too, which I know Steve is going to run me up and down the field on this year. And we're pulling together away for the audience to take part in the show.

So we might have some interactivity. That's what me and Steve are all about. Love it. Yeah, and hopefully we'll give away some prizes. So we'll update. y'all on that throughout the week. Meantime, over on the Greenlight podcast, we're right in the middle of our NFL preview,

so please check out the NFC South preview, which will drop in a day or two on Monday, followed by the NFC West on Wednesday, so check those out too. Y'all take it easy. Stanford, Steve, take care, and I appreciate you. See you, buddy. All right, ma'am.