Green Light with Chris Long - Super Bowl Week Prop Bets with ESPN's Stanford Steve.

Episode Date: January 30, 2021

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All right, listen up. It's guarantee time. I'm big on guarantees. And for the first time in 24 weeks, I can guarantee you, the green light gambling listener, that I will not lose money betting on an NFL game this weekend. Mr. Guarante. Yeah, let's get after it.

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of Super Bowl 55. Terms, conditions, eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com for details. Welcome to the Greenlight Gambling show, sponsored by Draft Kings. Joining me, as always, for our penultimate show of the year.

You like that word, is Stanford Steve. How's it going, brother? Good. How are you, bud? You get a little snow? We have some snow outside. Do you have the shovel outside,

or you just have one of those guys that comes, does that stuff for you? We don't have enough snow to where I need to bust the shovel out and be blue collar in the drive. But you have one. But I have the option of calling a guy. All right. You also have two sons that can help out.

Exactly. And what is it too early to get your kids? I was just going to say, it's never too early. Dude, my son will not, like, refuses to cut his rat tail. Okay. So at this point, he really doesn't have a choice. Manual labor is going to be, if you're going to wear that rat tail at four and a half years old, you got to engage in some manual labor.

Just put on Welcome to the Jungle. He likes that song. They both love that song. There you go. Gun Rose is that. Gun Rose's dead at? Gunn roses. And then I'll play like a strange and he's like, nah, dude. I'm like, this is Guns and Roses.

They're not feeling patience either. No, they don't feel patience as much. Patience might as well be a totally different thing. By the way, is patience the greatest Guns and Roses song of all the time? I think so. Yeah, I like Civil War a lot. Great. Really good.

Patience. Yeah. I mean, it's all right there, dude. I mean, you talk about songs that have been played out. Like, that's when you know you're old. It's like, wow. Like, Yukon football would play the guitar instrumental every third down. What are you talking?

Which, which of Welcome to the Jungle? Yeah. Oh, so, yeah. And like, hey, listen, when I was in school at Virginia, it was Welcome to Jungle on Third Down or it was crazy train on Third Down. It was Welcome to Jungle. Even that's better, though. Crazy because I,

and grow up with Crazy Train. It's before me. So it still has a little, a little coolness. And then we have a G&R, man, who the zombie nation where you would jump up and down on the sideline 47 times and you probably wore yourself out, but it felt like you were on some sort of drug. I mean,

uh, so yeah, I miss those days. Uh, we both missed those days, I think, but now we can bet on sports. So, uh,

Super Bowl odds. Mm-hmm. We're going to save our official picks for next week, but let's do a little scene-setter, okay? Look at the numbers, maybe take a crack, get a prop or two. Here's what we got, okay? Chiefs minus three. Yep. Over under 565.

Moneyline Chiefs minus 167 bucks plus 145. What's jumping out at you? I'm just thinking to myself, like, am I really going to go down watching Tom Brady win a seventh Super Bowl and not have them? You know? Yeah. Like Mahomes, I liked the Niners last year, but I ended up betting the Chiefs just because I ended up in the, and actually, you did an unbelievable job breaking down how the

Niners, I should say the Chiefs defensive line, you like those matchups. Yeah. With Frank Clark and those guys, I remember last year. So a couple things is I'm leaning towards Tampa. I think the Fisher injury is really big. I love, absolutely love what I've seen from Shaq Barron. and and JPP. I think Vita Vaya is a dude.

And with that, I just, you know, the idea, like, he can occupy dudes, man. Like, he's that big of a space eater. And Todd Bowles, we know he's not going to sit back. But with two weeks, man, and Vita Vaya back, like Todd could get creative. He could do some things that they didn't even come close to doing the first time they played, Kansas City. And Mahomes, that was a tough one, too. Mahomes just jumped him to hit Tyreek when Tampa was trying to disguise a cover two.

I've seen all the drawups of everything. They really need Winfield back. I think he's critical on the back end just because of how well he tackles an open space. And, you know, we talked about, I think Sunday night, Chris, I think the biggest unsung group of the whole playoffs has been the Tampa Bay offensive line. You go back to, you know, they've won seven in a row, but you go back, you know, the Washington game really still sticks out my mind, how they were able to run the ball and dictate whatever they wanted to do.

I believe Fournett went over 100 that night. and then you go to New Orleans. We know how good that front is and that front seven and that defense as a whole, even though there's no fans, but they still went on the road and kept Tom upright and it stayed with it. It wasn't pretty early on,

but the defense got the turnovers and, man, they cashed them in. And then last week, say what you want, but that first third down, you know, to Mike Evans, Green Bay fans had to be like, oh, shit, Brady's here. Yeah, you know, like, you know, big games where there's so much buildup and you're wondering how it's going to go. And I've been in situations like that on a team where I'm like,

I have no idea how this game's going to play out. Like I'm on the team and I have no idea. That first statement drive, you know, it's like, oh shit. Because this is a fluky. The bucks are not known as a first 15 team. You know, I mean, if anything, they're the opposite. They should throw their first 15 out the window. I mean, the start they got off to,

they're a different football team right now. you mentioned the offensive line. I think the Bucks are going to win this game. A little spoiler alert, I'll say it again next week. At this point where I sit, you mentioned the Fisher injury, it's huge. Yeah. The Vita Vaya thing plays right into your hands, your favorite take on how to beat Brady.

Talking about my homes. I do think this is a big positive because with the tackles out and we talk about how far back he drifts, you are going to have to get rid of. of that step-up lane. And I would run games, too. I would run E-T's, like really flat E-T's, which is N-first tackle around. T-E's.

You could run T-E's as well, although I like the E-Ts a little bit better. Of course you did, because you could go first, just because you're that selfish. You know what, though? Honestly, usually if you're running an E-T, you know, I love making an inside move. It feels like sexy and cool to win inside. But you're probably going to be the sacrificial lamb on an E-T. the guy that usually comes free to me is the looper. You know, the looper is the thing that's so good with their hands.

And then they just get inside. And those guys are amazing. The way they could go over to top and be slippery. You're totally right. I would run games. I would run games this week. And all the points you made are extremely valid. It seems like we're both on the chief.

Well, how does Vegas take the biggest hit? I mean, everybody's probably on the chief. We're on the bucks. You know, they have so much stuff going on. You know, now you got futures factored in. I'm sure they got blasted with futures on both these teams. Chris, the one other thing I wanted to point out was I still don't think Mahomes is going to be 100% with the top. So that's another reason why I think this helps, you know, Tampa Bay.

And then, you know, you talked about being in games and not knowing how they're going to go. Like the over-under seems really interesting to me because when I look at Tampa Bay, you got left, which was a great mind, you got Bruce, you got Tom. And those three guys are going to have the best game plan to go about beating Kansas City. And that includes having the ball knowing what Kansas City could do offensively. So they're going to factor all that in. And I still think they need to throw the ball to win the game. I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball on Spags.

I think he does a good job of confusing things. I do think it is a hold on. Let's see what Spags is doing, what running guys all over the place, where the hell is Tyron Matthew, you know, pre-snap as opposed to post-snap. So, you know, maybe a little first half under, I'm thinking. I don't know because on the other side.

I like the under here. Okay. Where I'm sitting right now. Okay. It's 56 and a half, and I think first half under for sure, right? But the way I look at it, you think about what this game's going to be.

If you ask me what this game is going to be a 30-27-type ball game, okay, well, that's right on the nose. But you have to take into account, like if we think the bucks are going to be in control this time around, the bucks are going to play with less tempo than they did the last time around. You know, the way the game, no doubt. The last time these two teams played, the chiefs jumped them.

And so that dictates the tempo of the rest of the game. So I think as you look at it, even in a vacuum, you're thinking, oh, it's going to be about 57. well, taking into account that the bucks might be relatively in control, which is much different than the first time around. Yeah, and obviously the game changers turnovers. If there's, what do you think, two plus two turnovers, this thing's going over. Yeah.

Just because of how good these teams are on catching in and the guys are that are calling the snaps. Where you throw the picks too, Steve, right? Like last week, Brady threw the picks and plus territory. they got away with it, it didn't really affect the total too much. But if, if you know, if you get Aaron Rogers to Aaron Jones, Whitehead comes down and punches the ball out first possession, the second half, that's a killer for the under. So like, if these teams can stay away from those mistakes, I feel pretty good about it. The biggest turnover risk, I think, is honestly going to be Patrick Mahomes with that rush

breathing down his neck. And that's not an indictment on him. but this is a totally different situation than he was in a week ago against the Bill's defense. No doubt. No doubt about it. And it's funny, we touched on it Sunday again. I keep going back because it's just the things I think about is this isn't, you know, Tom Brady gets all the wins, right?

Quarterbacks get all the wins. This roster is pretty damn good for Tom and the guys that he has around on the defense. But also it's probably one of the main reasons he went through. there because he did assess things. You know, he didn't go to Detroit. So it's a combination of all. I said before the New Orleans game, I thought that was the game that Bucks fans thought

that Brady would have them win. And then last week was the game that Brady knew he could win and what he could do in Tampa Bay. So, I mean, it's, you know, looking at it for Mahomes on the other side. It's just a pick, you know, when you, you know, people want to know, you know, player props and stuff like that.

To me, it's so hard with the Chiefs. I saw Kelsey's like 97 yards receiving. But like to me, with them, it's picked your poison. Like they, you know, last week, all right, you know, what do you guys want to do? I thought the reason I like Buffalo is I thought they would do something to take away Kelsey because of how much a factor. Kelsey had two touchdowns, I think, in the first half in the first game against them. They got Milano back.

I thought maybe they would double them, do something. He goes off for nine catches in the first half. And Kansas City kind of sets the tone there where Buffalo's just doesn't know what to do now, scared to attack. When they got home, they couldn't get Patrick on the ground. And then, you know, then you get Hardman going after the fumble. He's got the side to side game going. Tyreek breaks a couple, you know, Oki, five-yard Oki routes in the big regards.

And that's the chiefs, man. It's a hold your butts offense. And that's why I still think Todd Bowles can make Patrick get rid of the ball fast, which I think you have to do. I think Romo did the Browns Chiefs game. And when Cleveland did that, you know, I wasn't sure about it. But when he said it, I am more in favor of that. You can't cover these guys this long.

And you've got to make Patrick get rid of the ball. So to eliminate him scrambling around and holding on the ball and making those plays, maybe you do, you know, over overload rush a couple times to force the ball. Maybe it's into the boundary. That helps you with Open Field Tackling. I don't know. I mean, that's why Bowles gets paid all this money. Absolutely.

I think the best bet is to mix it up. Don't live in any one thing and, you know, like mix up your pressure, your foreman. And honestly, I would love to see a heavy dose of, hey, Devin White, go get Patrick Mahomes. Yeah. That's one of the coolest matchups to me when it happens of the entire game. Because this guy's a heat-seeking missile. If you watch him the first time against the damn Packers, that first quarter of play,

if you went back like preparing for that last game to watch, was like a Devin White show, running down tosses. It was ad rushing, blowing up the back, then spinning, like he knows exactly where Aaron Rogers is right, and beating him to the sideline with a five-yard head start. Patrick Mahomes is a great athlete, but he's not like an explosive, explosive athlete. So, you know, a Devin-White,

can kind of negate that. But you have to be careful in how you spy or how you add rush and that type of thing. If I'm a D-Limon in this game, holy shit, this is a dream, dude. You back up tackles and a guy that holds the ball. I mean, like, when we went to play Brady in the Super Bowl, we had a really good front and one of the stories of the game. We didn't touch him for most of the game because they get the ball out. And they seven-man protect.

How many D-Lyman did you guys play in that game? How many guys got snaps in that game? Probably eight. I'd have to go back and look, but like we tried to get eight up pretty much as many times as we could. That's a stay fresh thing, you know? No doubt. And this is going to be one of those games. Like I said, because of the quarterbacks wanting to throw the ball and knowing how confident they are with the ball in their hands.

What about home field for the bucks? You know it's a corporate game. We know there's only 20,000 fans, but there's really no home field, except for that they're not having to go. I think both teams, in essence, get a head start. Or both teams, although some of the young players might be disappointed, they don't get to live the week or whatever. Like, this is a positive for those teams. Oh, no doubt.

I think it helps. I think it helps Arians immensely. And all you need to know about the home field advantage is Tampa decided to wear their away uniforms. So there you go with the home field. Thank goodness. Because it was going to be ugly if it was anything else. I think they picked the only plows.

There has to be something going on. with the ownership and why they just couldn't come back out with the creamicles. Imagine if they just came out. Because America's not ready, dude. America's just not, I don't know that we've proven that we can handle the creamstacles. I don't know that we have, you know, to much is given, much as expected. We'd be given fans a lot. How do you wield that power?

How do you, why would Tampa Bay get the coolest uniforms in the league? Why do they deserve that? Why do Tampa fans deserve the coolest uniforms of? league. I'm disappointed they don't have them because I hate looking at these half-ass. What do they call? Puter. Puter. I'm not a big fan of Puter. Puter is what you get on an SUV, the color you put on an SUV in like the 90s, bro. Yeah. It's not a, the old Silverado. Yeah, like a silverado, you know, a conspicuous silverado in the 90s. Let's take a look at a couple prop bets. Yes. Most passing yards. Mahome.

minus 150, Brady plus 125. That's a tough one. If I'm doing that, I like to- because Mahomes. Mahomes is at 3.30 and Brady's 301. So if you want to do the analytics people stuff, I mean, they could just, they would just tell you, the answer's right there. Just look at it.

Mahomes is 330. Yeah, but what if you have one of these sleepwalking games, man? you know, the last two times they had a couple weeks off, Cleveland. And they came out hot offensively, actually. I mean, it didn't cash it. It didn't get lopsided as quickly as you thought in Cleveland hung around. But, you know, the buy two years ago with Houston. I don't remember how exactly.

They started slow, I believe, against San Francisco as well. So, you know, like that's assuming Patrick fires on all cylinders. 20, 20 yards a game for him is 316, 293 yards a game in playoff career, 290 yards a game in 2020 playoffs. Of course, he was out of that Cleveland game pretty quickly, so take that for what you will. Yeah, that's the one I do love with Mahomes is there's an over longest completion. It's 39 and a half yards. I love that over.

Love that over because not only is he going to throw the ball plenty of times down the field, you also have the catch and run aspect with those guys that we talked about. And Bob Bowles is going to be aggressive at the time. Yes. Kelsey receiving yards. Let's do that one first. Highest over under for yardage. That's 94 and a half, actually.

Yeah. Graph King. So, I mean, I just feel like it sounds easy because he just racks up yards. It's like I hate to bet against him, but I don't know of all the props that that's the one I'm going to look at. How much do you put the last game they played into, like, how much do you, take that into consideration here? Well, judging by the way they played the Saints, they're different, right? The last game, you know, 386, just or whatever it was. And their scheme was questionable defensively. They obviously didn't get anything going

offensively. The game was out of phase. They go toe to toe and they're in control the entire game against the Saints. The Chiefs have been the Chiefs for a year and a half. The Bucks, they've been this work in progress. And so far in the playoffs, they've been pretty damn good. I mean, they've been pretty damn good. The way they jumped Aaron and the Packers the first time felt like an anomaly. You know, and it made things easier for them the rest of the game. But the Packers' defense got better, et cetera.

And they handled those guys. I mean, that wasn't a fluky thing. I know some people are going to say that like the Packers beat themselves. Okay, well, Tom Brady threw three picks too. So like, you know, like we could play this game. You know, you don't like the calls, that sort of thing. I think the Bucks are a different football team from the first time these guys played even. And I would figure that Todd Bowles is going to have a better game plan.

I mean, they left Carlton Davis out there on an island for like 48 minutes. It felt like. Tyreek Hill had 15 targets in the first game. Dude, you know, and that might be one reason that they're saying, you know, if you're looking at a Kelsey prop bet, I don't know, maybe one school thought would be, well. you know how coaches are we're not going to let this guy beat us again so if you told you take tyree kill away then who's going to get all the targets well kelsey gets a lot of them anyways maybe they go maybe you take the under on you know if there's a prop bet on tyrie kill just thinking like a coordinator i played for spags before and a lot of de coordinators are going to say like we're

not going to let this fucking guy beat us so the other thing too that's done and that's why i asked you is that game was 17 nothing like that. Exactly. Like so, you know, you know, look at that game plans and stuff. It's really tough. Like, you know, Brady, I saw he had a rush, but like Ronald Jones had nine rushes, Four Nett had three.

Yeah. You know, there was that big dip in Four Nets numbers. And, you know, towards the end of the season, I think it was right around there. But Mahomes goes 37 to 49 for 462. Like, I don't think we're going to see that. I would think Tampa would be in more in control than going out 17. Nothing because there you go.

If you want the blueprint for what it's going to look like if Kansas City goes up big and why everybody's scared to death, there you go. It is interesting to me that Gronk was up there in yard. It led the team in past catching yards last game because we haven't seen anything from him in the past game. You know, we saw the screen at the end of the last. The screen was big.

where the big man got loose. But it's also their personnel. Like I was sweating. I had Cameron Bray over two and a half catches last week. He didn't play much. They stuck with that personnel. You know, we called it, you know,

zebra with three receivers. But like, you know, they brought Johnson in more than Brate. And then they would use Scotty Miller, you know, with their Jaguar or four receiver package. They would bring him in, you know, instead of Bray. And I believe that's what they were in. in the touchdown before the first half.

So I think Tampa's going to do a lot of mixing and match and personnel-wise, which I would think they're doing to try and help figure out what Spags wants to do. Does that make sense? And I think this is going to be one of the coolest chess matches with a little historical context, Spags and Spags and Brady.

You know, it's a tale of oldest time, right? He supposedly has the key. And I think another great matchup to watch is going to be in that same vein. And you love this. The interior push, Chris Jones, Marpet, those guys inside. How can they work as a team to help on Chris Jones? Yeah. Keep that window open for him.

Because one of the problems with Tom Brady is not only can Chris Jones get pushed, but he's a fucking giraffe, dude. Yeah. Did you see him run last week? He chased somebody down. He's all is hell. He's long. He's ranging.

and maybe giraffe's not the right one. But like my man is going to be in those windows. He could get blocked and be in those windows. Get some big paws up too. Yeah, exactly. So, you know, we might see a little bit of that. A lot to think about a lot to unpack. We're going to give you our, you know, right now,

none of these are binding. Okay. So don't go clean your bets in and saying, hey, gamble at your own risk this week. There's a lot that can change as I learn, you know, betting totals Sunday before. You get a windstorm in Buffalo or that sort of thing. Like there could be a monsoon.

There could be, you don't know, COVID. There's props on COVID. Yeah, you could bet the temperature at kickoff, Chris. I need to talk to my meteorology department. There you go. And the tech department. Or wait, you are the tech. You are the tech department.

I talk to all the departments. One off the wall prop. I saw that. I want to get. How many times will Belichick be said? Over under one. Over. There's no doubt about it.

You know what we got to get to is Romo. That's who we got to get to. That's right. He's the guy that holds a bunch of stuff. All right, that'll do it. Please like, subscribe, comment. Also, check out our regular Greenlight pod. And check out the Greenlight Twitter account at Chalk Media.

We got something to pop yesterday big time, bro. We were talking about Arby's. People are really in Arby's. I want it in. I want it in. Cowboy Reed, what's wrong with you? There's a lot wrong.

Yeah, I got dragged a little bit. I can see that. I can see that one coming. You know what, though? It's good to be the Wizard of Oz and get dragged because nobody's... It's all good, though, sticking my dogs. It's a lot like on this Zoom call.

I see his name on the black screen. It's, you know, like, Reed sitting in a good spot to fire off bad takes. I mean, when I fire a bad, takeoff, I get crushed too. I'm looking right at you. What's media, man. Did you really say Burger King was better than In and Out?

Yeah, dude. The burgers? Fuck yeah, dude. Okay. You need to travel more. I do travel and I go to that restaurant, which is just fine. But literally all it is is if you want a healthy fast food meal.

Do I look like I want a healthy fast food meals? You think In and Out is like unhealthy and savory? No, it's the best. No, it's not, dude. Yes, it is. Fuddruckers was better. Stop.

You're going to tell me five guys is better, too? Oh, I mean, like, I can only eat five guys once a year, but if I'm hungover or if I'm drunk. I don't want my burger in a tinfoil wrapper. That's, I mean, that's quirky of you. Okay. You're quirky. You are. All right.

Go curly fries. We'll see you next. week. Absolutely. Bring your pen and paper.