Hodgetwins Podcast - "The Iran War Is Already Lost!" - Tucker Carlson On The Iran War...

Episode Date: July 13, 2026

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I wouldn't say I regret my vote for Trump. I would say I'm very disappointed. Yeah. Yes. But what's the alternative going forward? Yeah, I understand you want to start our third party? Yeah, I mean, I want an option. Right.

You know, I don't really understand politics very well, despite having covered it for 35 years. So, I mean, it's enormously complex in its details. Like, how do you start a party? How do you get on the ballot? I don't know. There are people who do, of course, who specialize in it. But my main point is there ought to be an option. There ought to be, you ought to be able to vote for a candidate who represents you in some way. And what I learned.

Yeah, in some way. Like if you wake up one morning and both parties agree on the big issues on how we ought to structure the economy, give preference to banks over like you, and how we ought to run our foreign policy, take orders from Israel, both parties agree on those issues, which are the biggest issues of government, then it's not a real system. It's not, there's not actually a choice. And I've always resisted using the phrase Uniparty because it seemed kind of nutty. And of course, there are differences. And by the way, there are actual differences between the parties.

They disagree on trans or abortion. And those are real issues. Abortion is definitely a real issue, in my opinion. However, on the economy and foreign policy, which I think everyone would agree, are the main things that a government does, they don't disagree. They're in total agreement. And I happen to disagree with those views. I'm not, I don't think the banks, I don't think you ought to be taxed at twice the rate for having a job that you are if you invest money. I think that's sick. I don't understand how that happens. So I disagree with them on that,

and I disagree on the foreign policy question. I don't think maintaining this empire for the benefit of other countries is like in our interest. So, um, I would like to have candidates who dissent, you know, who disagree with both Trump and Chuck Schumer, who were on the same side on these issues. Right. You know, what's weird to me is you mention this word, Uniparty, and you look at this war in Iran, and the Democrats are vocally totally against this war, but yet they're not doing anything about it. Is that just performative politics on that end? We've had anti-war protests in this country since before I was born. Okay?

I mean, we had an entire decade of American politics. It was dominated by anti-war protests. Then you have the war in Iraq. We have anti-war protests. I covered them. Where are the anti-war protests now? Well, they're none. This is less popular than Vietnam.

This is less popular than the Iraq war. But there are no protests. And, of course, the answer is that protests are not spontaneous. Big demonstrations are organized by, nonprofits and those nonprofits are funded almost exclusively by Democratic donors and those donors are in favor of this war because they're in favor of regime change in Iran because they see Iran as the biggest threat to Israel and so they those donors who donate to both parties but mostly the Democratic Party they may

disagree with they don't like Trump and they disagree with this or that detail about how we prosecuted the war but fundamentally they're for this Chuck Schumer is for regime change in Iran he said so so So that's how you know that there really is a uniparty. This is the biggest thing the U.S. government has done in my lifetime. And everybody in charges for it. Like that's not a working system. That's a broken system.

Do you think the Jewish lobby is the main corporate behind this? Because when Trump came out and said there was a nuclear weapon, I was like, nobody can be this stupid to fall for that excuse to start a war with Iran. I mean, was that honestly a huge threat of a nuclear war? with Iran attacking Israel or the United States? Of course not. That's absurd. Well, first of all, we had a 12-day war last June that the administration told us

ended the Iranian nuclear program. So the Iranian nuclear program was not the primary threat to the United States. If you're worried about nuclear war, we're on the cusp of a nuclear exchange in Eastern Europe between Russia and Europe because the United States and the big European countries are fighting a war with Russia.

And we don't get to read about it in the American media because they kind of ignore that it's happening. And the Russians are now saying, if you keep this up, we're going to lob a nuke into Western Europe. This is closest we've ever been to nuclear war since the last time those weapons were used in 1945. This is the closest right now. And we're ignoring it. So it's not like our leaders are afraid of nuclear weapons. Trump threatened to use nuclear weapons against Iran in public on truth social. So that whole story they told us was not just a lie, but like an absurd preposterous lie that none of them believed. No, Trump did this because he was pushed to do it by his donors and people whose advice he listens to. And their

primary interest was not what's best for the United States. Trust me. Yeah, like I heard Trump use the words, we're going to liberate the people of Iran. I hear this. By bombing a girl's school. Right, right. I hear this. And I'm like, how are these people falling for this? This is a Muslim theocracy. This is their culture, this is the way of life. Israel and American and the United States are going to liberate the people of Iran. But MAGA falls for it. It's all over social media. We're going to help these people. And then it's like, do these, do MAGA really care about Muslims in Iran? It's like all the farce, a lie. It's absurd. It's absurd. And by the way, if you do care about the people of Iran, why has no one asked the administration to apologize for murdering a

bunch of school girls next to an IRGC base in the opening days of the war. Everyone accepts that, you know, accidents happen in war. They call it collateral damage. Right. It's awful. But why not just say, I'm sorry for that. Sorry, we double-tapped a girls' school. I think most people, including Iranians, would accept, oh, my gosh, what a tragic mistake.

But no one ever apologized for it. So clearly nobody cares. Nobody. And that's a moral crime. It's a stain on our country. We're the ones who did it or the Israelis did it, but the same. because we were in this war together. And so you can't claim I care so much about the people of Iran

that I have to liberate the country, whatever that means, liberate the country from its own system. I mean, the whole thing is so deranged actually. And by the way, is Iran, look, I don't live in Iran. I've never been to Iran and I don't seek to live there. On the other hand, Canada, the country with which we share the largest border, it's our biggest trading partner, just killed 100,000,

Canadians, the government did through its made program, through euthanasia, over the last 10 years, 100,000. Did the Iranians kill 100,000 of their own people with lethal injection? I don't think they did. So like, let's get some perspective here. You know, I'm not defending Iran. I'm just saying, like, compared to what? Iran is an authoritarian government. It's a theocracy famously. Are there more religious nuts in Iran than there are in Israel or the United States? I'm not sure, actually. because I watched Americans who I know personally like Mike Huckabee say, you know, Jesus is commanding us to kill Iranians. That's insane.

I see people in Israel saying it's what's literally insane, but it's also religious extremism. I mean, it's the definition of it. I see people in Israel all the time. Cabinet ministers say, no, no, no, we have to kill every person in Iran or Gaza or the West Bank or southern Lebanon because they're Amalek, which is an Old Testament concept where God orders you to kill not just the person you're fighting, but his wife and his children and his babies and his livestock, his entire bloodline. That's religious extremism. That's insanity. So I'm sure they have a lot of that in Iran. They also have a lot of that here, and they have a lot of that in Israel.

So like, slow down before you start calling other people religious extremists. Do you know what I mean? Right. Right. They like to use the term terrorists, but it's like, how can we actually criticize Iran calling them terrorists when we do the same things they're doing? Well, I hate to agree with you. I mean, this is my country. I love this country. I'm not leaving. However, there's some truth in what you're saying.

And it's, again, it's an offense against us, Americans, decent people. The majority of the country is, like, very sensible and kind and nice to their neighbors and gives directions to strangers, nice to dogs. Like, these are good people in America. And yet our leaders are behaving in the, I mean, you've got cabinet secretaries who I know personally, standing up and like, we killed people. It's so great. Bragging about killing people, shame on you. That's disgusting. I mean, you can say, well, can we have to kill these people to defend ourselves? Okay, I get it. We've got a home invasion. We're shooting the invader.

Got it. But to crow about the death of other people, that's not Christian. That's like pagan. That's like Aztec. That's totally un-American. It's totally unchristian. It's disgusting. And anyone who does it is going to be punished for it in this life or the next. And it, it grieves me to see people I know personally, who I like personally, actually, who I voted for. You know what I mean? Talk like that. It degrades our country. Right. I think you have a lot of good insight with Trump because you used to talk to him a lot. Israel has been lobbying our presidents for decades to attack around. Why do you think Trump fell for that and caved? Oh, man, that I, you know, I wish I knew. That's the question. Trump is weak, obviously.

I mean, I've always known that. He seeks the approval of others. He attacks the New York Times, but then reads every mention of himself in the New York Times. That's a sign of insecurity and weakness. And clearly he is insecure and weak. And he's lots of other things, too, that are good. I mean, Trump is a complicated person. And there's a lot about Trump that I really like. Still, but I knew that he was weak. Everyone who knows him and watches him carefully knew that. Was it just that? I don't know. I mean, Trump went into this knowing, and I know that he knew it because I talked to him about it, that if this went wrong, it would destroy his administration, his legacy, this country. Like, he knew the stakes really, really well. And he did it anyway. And I don't think there were many

advisors around him in the White House who were pushing hard for this. Mark Rubio wanted it, I think. But he wasn't standing on a desk screaming at Trump to do it. The people who were pushing him were the Israelis and their agents in this country, Mark Tiesin and Mark Levine and Rupert Murdoch and all the people who carry water for the Israeli government. And Trump listened to them not his own vice president. I don't, or his own family, I don't understand it. And I felt from the first days that there was something else going on

that I couldn't prove, but there was some weird behavior that Joe Kent, the former counterterrorism head, has talked about in public about the butler shooting and the lack of an investigation and the lack of transparency into what the investigation found that makes you wonders there are a connection between that and trump's very strange decision to to wreck his country on behalf of israel like

why would you do why would you ever do something like that but he did so you know I don't know I don't think I'm a conspiracy nut but I mean I was pretty close to all the stuff as it was happening and I thought it was weird then and I think it's even weirder now. Yeah. So far, but the war with the Iran, how do you think it's going? Trump has said repeatedly that we've won the war, we've annihilated their military. I think he's full of shit. I think we lose to this war. And he's just saying these things trying to save face.

Of course we've lost the war. I mean, we've lost the war by any measurement, including his own. Like, just go back to February 28th. What were the goals that he said, the score was intended to achieve, we haven't achieved them. In fact, the United States is in a much, much weaker position in many ways than it was four months ago. So no, we lost. The question is, how badly are we going to be damaged by that loss? And that, to some extent, is up to us, not entirely up to us, but to some extent, I mean, the key fact is the United States, despite the decades of propaganda about how we're energy independent, we have enough oil, we're still dependent on oil from other countries, because

the price of oil is set internationally. And there are kinds of oil, grades of oil, oil with certain levels of sulfur content that we need that doesn't come from the United States. So anyway, the point is, the U.S. is going to face terrible consequences economically starting in a couple weeks, like August, if the Strait of Hormuz isn't restored to what it was.

And even if it is, tomorrow, there's still, for a bunch of different reasons, going to be massive and negative economic effects on the United States, damage to the United States. So, like, that's the main fact that Trump's facing. So he kind of has to open the straight of Hormuz somehow. The problem is it's not up to him. And we've shown that the world's best-funded military,

which may or may not be the best military, I mean, judge for yourself, but, like, it gets more money than any military in history, $1.5 trillion. That military can't open this waterway, which the world needs, not just for oil and gas, but for sulfur and fertilizer and all these different commodities that make life in the modern world possible. If that's closed, people starve to death. It's just a

fact. And by the way, Trump knew this going in. I talked to him about it before the war. And, you know, I think everyone else who talked to him talked to him about it because it's like the central fact of what's the most important fact of Iran, that there are a theocracy with a missile program and nuclear ambitions? No. The most important fact about Iran is its geography. It's on the northern edge of the Strait of Formuz, which is the only waterway out of the Persian Gulf, which is where a fifth of the world's energy comes from. So like, where it sits on the map is the most important thing about Iran. And for almost 50 years, we've had this hostile relationship. We impose sanctions.

But Iran allows international shipping through the strait. Well, now they don't. So everything, the world has changed completely. Iran went from being this like outlaw state that everyone made fun of it, everybody hated, to be. being one of the most powerful countries in the world. It's just a fact. That's what Trump and BB's war did to Iran. So your options now are what?

What are they? Newk Iran? Yes. Which is allied with China and Russia? I mean, I don't think so. Yeah. So there's a lot of truth that we could be run out of oil in a couple weeks, a month. Well, yeah.

We've got something called a Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which has been around a long time, was greatly expanded under George W. Bush. Basically, it's a bunch of old salt caverns that are filled with oil. the point of this reserve is to provide a cushion to global energy markets. So American consumers of gasoline and diesel and jet fuel and heating oil and asphalt and everything that we use that comes from oil don't see sharp price fluctuations, right? It's a cushion.

It's a reserve. It's a strategic reserve. Well, so Biden drained it. Trump did not refill it. And now we've drained it almost to the point where we can't take it. any more out for a bunch of geological reasons. If you take too much oil out of the strategic petroleum reserve, the caverns will collapse. And it also gets salty or the farther down you go, whatever. It's not that interesting. But the point is, we're basically at the end. We are weeks away from not being

able to draw down. And at that point, American consumers are just at the mercy completely of the international oil price, you know, the price of Brent crude. So it's like, this could be super bad. just with energy, which is the basis of everything. I mean, everything you buy is made with energy. And it's fossil fuels. It's not made with solar. Sorry, despite the lies they've told you, it's fossil fuels. But not just that, fertilizer. So most fertilizer used around the world comes from oil and natural gas, actually mostly gas. But the point is, if you raise the price of fertilizer, people get less food. Now, when countries, like America, you know, we can survive it in places like Africa, a lot of sub-Saharan Africa,

people are going to starve for real. And so the implications of this are like world historic. And I think Trump understands that, which is why he agreed to the MOU, the memorandum of understanding, which was a humiliating defeat for the United States, but it was better than what would have happened if we kept going. But the Israelis hated it because it constrained their behavior. The first paragraph in the MOU is you got to stop the war in Lebanon. That's the first paragraph. And the Israelis didn't want to do that. So this country of 9 million people has prevented a peace settlement that's to the advantage of the United States.

And now it's been blown up. And now two days ago, Trump's like, yeah, we're out. Okay, so what's the plan now? What is the plan now? I mean, it's actually one of the most upsetting things I've ever seen. I don't know how much coverage is getting in the American media, but like what is what is the plan? There's no military solution to this. If there was, I guess we would have exercised it, right? I think if there isn't. Yeah. I think the only military solution, it would require a lot of American

soldiers dying. But even at that case, I don't think you can bomb your way or fight your way out of this. It seems like to me Iran is trying to fight an economic war while the United States and the neocons and the Zionists and the people that's all for this war, they think they can actually bomb their way into more power. But I don't think this war, this particular war is going to work out that way. I think it's more of economic. That's such a smart observation. I totally agree with that. We're fighting past each other. Right. So Iran has what the 26 or 36 biggest economy in the world is not a huge economy relative to us or China or Russia. But what they do have again is geography. And so they understand

like we're probably not going to beat the United States in a head-to-head pitched battle, like a tank, you know, standoff. So we're not going to do that. What we can do, is strangle them economically. And they've understood that since the first day. And we haven't because we've talked ourselves. And Trump has been a part of this. Like his mesmerizing boasting, which is meant to kind of make you feel good

and, you know, kind of cast a spell over you. No, we've got the greatest military of all time. The greatest military of all time. It's like, okay, that may or may not be true. I don't know. But I do know that it doesn't matter how great your military is. It can't answer every question.

It can't solve every problem. It's not, do you know what I mean? It's like the old line about when you're a hammer, everything's a nail, but everything is not a nail, actually. And the Israelis have fallen for this more than anybody. Israel is a tiny country with a tiny population. It's, you know, impressive in its way for a country of nine million people, but they don't really make anything.

Just implements of war and espionage. That's it. There's no real economy. and there's no throw weight. It's a tiny, tiny country. But they've talked themselves into this idea that because we have this incredibly powerful military, which is really our military,

we can do whatever we want. And I'm not even criticizing that on moral grounds. It's obviously disgusting as a worldview, but it's just not true. It's just not, that's not reality. It doesn't matter, as J.D. Vance said the other day, you can't kill your way out of every problem. That's just true. Sorry.