Instant Genius - Wildfires: past, present and future

Episode Date: August 1, 2018

Geologist Prof Andrew Scott on our complex relationship with wildfires Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Music just as the artist intended. Visit name audio.com to learn more. Although we sort of pride ourselves as humans that we have conquered fire, we actually haven't. We can control fire to a certain extent, but we haven't got complete control over fire. You're listening to the Science Focus podcast from the BBC Focus magazine team. We're the UK's best-selling science and technology monthly, available in print and in several digital formats throughout the world. Find out more at sciencefocus.com or look out for us in your app store.

Hello and welcome to the Science Focus podcast. I'm Helen Glennie, editorial assistant at BBC Focus magazine. In the last few weeks, wildfires have been hitting the headlines worldwide. Greece has experienced the world. wildfires in Europe this century, with 92 so far confirmed dead, while major fires have also hit Sweden, California, Canada and even the UK. Wildfires have been a feature of our planet for millions of years, and we've long lived alongside them.

So why do we struggle to tame them? And what can we do to lessen the impact? Professor Andrew Scott is a geologist and fire expert at Royal Holloway University of London, who's written a book on the subject. Our staff writer James Lloyd chatted to him to find out more. Andrew, it seems that wildfires have been in the news a lot recently. We've seen the devastating blazers in Greece, Sweden, Portugal, California, even the UK in the last year or so.

Is there any evidence that wildfires are on the rise? It depends on what you mean by on the rise and what you're using as a baseline. I think in terms of our recent experience, yes, I suspect, but of course we have now better news gathering. And I think our understanding of fire on Earth has changed quite dramatically over the last 20, 30 years. Two things that have been important.

The first is the development of satellite technology, which has allowed us to see fires across the globe. Before, of course, I suppose before 1970, only rarely you would hear about a major fire. Of course, now you can see the images from space, which we can see on our televisions. And so we have a much clear understanding that fires are actually very, very frequent

across the globe in many places. The second thing that we need to think about is that we now understand that there is a very long history of fire on Earth going back almost 400 million years. And so fire has been part of the planet's system, if you like, for all that period of time. So for the first thing to say is fire is a natural phenomenon.

So why it comes in the news is partly because its impact upon people. And we have two major problems, I suppose, or even three. The first is that we've tended to suppress fires in areas where perhaps they shouldn't have been suppressed because sometimes it allows the build up of fuel so that fires become much, much bigger and much hotter. Secondly, we're building more and more out into these flammable landscapes, and so therefore we're threatened by the fire more, even though they would happen naturally. And the third is because we're building out into those flammable systems,

we ourselves become a major ignition source, because the sort of three things that we need for fire is the build-up of fuel. So if we haven't managed our forest, particularly well if we've just allowed material to build up. And then if we suppressed fire, that's one significant issue. The other is that the climate is an important element. And so, therefore, if we've got long periods of dryness,

then that creates a system. If you've got a large buildup of fuel, which is very dry, then fire is inevitably will start. And of course, the ignition then is important. It could be a natural ignition, but we tend to always blame humans. strangely enough, it's often the case that the first thing to blame is a human. You have a situation, there were these major fires at Yellowstone in 1988. Some people may even remember that.

This was a big thing, you know, oh, humans have started these fires. Well, of the over 40 fires that took place in Yellowstone, I think only eight of them were humans started. There's a tendency to ignore the fact that sometimes these are started, naturally. However, even if they're started by humans, the fact that you've built up a fuel and it's dry enough, the climate is such, then you'll get a fire anyway. I think several things have happened recently is that people have begun to realize that fires can move very quick. And of course, a lot of them are driven by strong winds, and that makes it much more

devastating. The other problem is that we tend to forget. We've got very short memories when it comes to fire so that people realize there are fires, but forgotten there was a fire, you know, it might have been five years, ten years, or not in somebody's lifetime. Therefore, it goes off their radar. In some cases, some communities have built sort of fire escape routes and so on. It may be the case even in Greece, where then people have built upon areas, which should have been left open for people to escape. And so we need to be more of what we call fire-wise. I think there's a big problem we have with understanding fire

is the fact that most of us never study it. If you ever see it on the news as a devastating disaster and never really think about it. And so perhaps, if anything, that these recent fires can begin to get a, conversation going about the nature of fire and whether it's, you know, that it is natural part of the system. To what extent if we're going to build in these areas, whether or not we should think more carefully about how we should protect ourselves about being engulfed by such large

wildfires. So you say that fire is a kind of natural part of the environment. What kind of roles does fire play then in its more natural role, let's say? Okay, well, it depends what you mean by role. I suppose fire occurs because there's fuel to burn. And if we've got above about 17% oxygen in the atmosphere, which for most of the last 400 million years we have, then fire is going to burn if there is a ignition source and that fuel is dry enough.

We do know from the historic records that, in fact, oxygen levels have varied. And so at some periods, they've been even higher than today. And so in those circumstances, even fairly wet vegetation can burn. So it's an interesting case that many of the world's flammable vegetations evolved during a period about 90 million years ago when the fire was very, very prevalent on Earth, a very high fire period, at the time when dinosaurs were around, in fact. So, for example, some of the pines which have done,

develop very thick barks to try to survive, at least fairly regular fire, evolved at this time. Some pines actually developed cones which only open after fires go through. Some plants, for example, the eucalypts, which are very flammable, actually have developed systems to regrow very quickly from charred stumps, for example, and others such as some of the Finnbos vegetation in southern Africa, kind of sense smoke. of approaching fire, get ready to drop their seeds, and after the fire goes through, the seeds are dropped, and new vegetation comes up.

So in some cases, plants have adapted to a fiery regime. The other type of vegetation would be savannah. In Africa, for example, you would think, you know, we're all familiar with savannah with these lovely roaming animals going through savannah. But actually, such savanna wouldn't be there if it didn't have regular fire, because that keeps down any significant shrubs and trees.

So fire actually is important in many parts of the world to, if you like, keep certain types of vegetation going. In other places in the world, then fire is a bad thing. For example, in many of the tropical rainforests, which don't normally have much fire. They're very sensitive to fire. So in those systems where man has introduced fire, this can be quite a disaster. So in some cases then, it can almost be better to let the fire play out, if you like, to let it do its thing?

I think so, because it's certainly the case in some of the Western US. We now know that if you have regular surface fires, then you can keep the fuel loads down. And if many of the trees survive those fires very well, they actually move fairly slowly. if they let to burn, then you keep those fuel loads down. If you suppress them too much in some cases, you let the fuel build up. The fire becomes much hotter. It goes into a major crown fire, and these can spread very rapidly and can be quite disastrous. I think we have a number of problems, and it's exacerbated by two other features.

Firstly, humans have introduced plants into systems which weren't naturally. there. And one particular type of plant is certain grasses. We've introduced grasses such as the cheek grass into western US or the gambar grasses into northern Australia, which allow the spread of fire much more rapidly. And so there's evidence to suggest that certain areas where this grass has really taken hold, it's changed the dynamic of the fire system. It is the key. It is the key. case, for example, in parts of southern US, where we have those very iconic Sugaro cacti, you know, famous from the westerns in the cinema. Of course, those are often just isolated cacti with no vegetation between. So if a lightning hits such a thing, such a plant,

then it just burns that one cactus. What's happening is that grasses now are invading that environment so that the fire spreads from one cactus, then the grass is set light, and then it actually takes out the next cactus. And so that whole vegetation type is actually under threat because of what we call plant invasive. That's one significant thing. And the other is small, it appears that the geological evidence suggests that during periods of fairly rapid climate change, this is a period.

a very higher increase in fire occurrence, so that any disturbance of the normal climate system may create an environment in which we have more fire. So in Western US, though it's not just getting a slightly warmer, it's not just a matter of warming, it's a matter of changing the dynamics of the weather system. So, for example, we have an earlier spring melt in the Rockies. So the fire season is longer. We have more growth early on and then drier periods where that fuel can burn. So again, small changes in climate and the shift of weather can actually be quite significant.

And it's not just in Western US, of course, in other places as well. So you say that it's sometimes better to let these fires play out. At what point do the authorities step in then and say, okay, we need to do something about this fire, we need to stop it from spreading. Presumably that's when human life is at risk, is it? I think so. I think it involves a very difficult discussion because, of course, people are very upset when the houses burn down and they've lost everything. And of course, it's very difficult then to have a discussion because people are really upset and we're going to rebuild. It's often the case.

I think what people have to think about is if you're going to build in a system, which naturally burns, even if you can, however much you try, you can never take fire out the system. We haven't, you know, although we sort of pride ourselves as humans that we have conquered fire, we actually haven't.

We can control fire to a certain extent, but we haven't got complete control over fire. Even putting out fires, very often it's the case that the firefighters are doing their best to save property and lives. Actually, it's a change in the weather that usually puts the fires out completely. So there's a limit.

So you have to be careful because you're then putting firefighters at risk maybe to save property. It may be that saving people is the most important. But then we also need to have some kind of discussion about planning. I think in many parts of the world now, we need to think about when we're planning our villages, our houses, our, you know, escape. to the country cottages that, you know, we're going to surround ourselves with flammable trees,

then we mustn't be surprised if they then burn. So we might think about how can we change our planning regulations, how can we maybe put in fire breaks between, you know, where there are houses and people and where, and also perhaps escape routes. Think more carefully about that. So I think especially it's been a drive in parts of America, beginning to be a driving UK in other places, to develop what we call fire-wise communities.

Have some discussion locally about, well, if there's going to be a fire, what are we going to do? How do we get out? Because that was maybe one of the big issues in, for example, the large fires that had in Canada in Fort McMurray. Everybody was trying to get out on the same road. And so, you know, then fire overtakes and people get killed in their cars,

which is tragic. The other issue is, for example, the Portuguese fires, which happened last year, in these eucalypt plantations, those were very flammable trees, planted in a very, an assistant Mediterranean climate system, which there is likely to be fire. And, of course, the major roads going through were going right through these flammable vegetation types. So, you know, people trying to escape the fire, The fire can move extremely quickly, get overtaken, and then tragically, people get killed.

So again, I think the problem is if fire science, it's not even like climate science where, you know, people have recognized it as a sort of a topic. Understanding fire, you know, at universities, fire is studied in a dozen different departments, but there's no kind of bringing together of all the different disciplines. So that, you know, the only fire department in university is one that's there to put them out rather than to study them. And so I think we need a much, much more coordinated research and funding towards understanding fire and how we relate to fire and then plan. I think the UK has done quite well in the last, you know, four or five years where we've actually now got in the development of Newtown regulations. if there's going to be a new town developed, there is an understanding that looking at the interface between the buildings and the wildland,

the vegetation around, that they have to understand about fire. How are they going to deal with a fire in those circumstances? And they provide access for fire engines. So that's the first thing. The second is that I think in many countries, which haven't had a familiarity with fire, and we would include the UK in this,

where in southern England, for example, the fire service themselves are becoming aware that fighting a wildfire is quite different from fighting a building fire. And so two things need to happen. You might need different equipment. And I know the Surrey Fire Service, for example, have actually ordered some specialist equipment

for dealing with wildfire. And secondly, it is training. So that some of the fire services in the UK are sending out some of their own officers to train in Western US on wildfire. And I think that's extremely important. But in the public consciousness, it's not there. And we have a significant issue, for example, in Surrey,

which most people wouldn't realize, you know, in England, they might not think of fire is a significant issue. But there have been a number of fires even this last summer. But for example, Surrey is the most wooded county in England. And again, it's surprising because it's so close to London. But if you've got any significant fire there, and it's quite likely that it would happen, I mean, we've had a very long dry period. We're going to continue to have some relatively dry periods.

If a fire takes place, then we've got a huge number of people living in such areas. All of our major arterial routes going into London go through areas which are wooded, you've got not just the fire itself, but also the smoke from the fire. You've got the pollution that holds. You've got the problem of the number of airports and so on, which are there, which in which planes can be grounded. And even getting fire engines to the scene can be a problem. The fire that occurred in Swindley Forest, which is on the sort of Hampshire-Sourri,

Berkshire border area in 2011, it took some of the, something like all the fire engines from 11 counties to put that way around. So the other issue you're seeing, I think, on the news recently, is the problem of wind and they're taking burning embers and spreading fire away from the normal firefront. So if you've got that in southern England, if you think of the size of the California fires, which they're saying is the size of the area of San Francisco, and you were to sort of put that footprint into southern England, you'd realize the problem that you could have. Tackling the wildfires is obviously one thing. Is there any work at all into forecasting the

fires, almost seeing where they might be most likely to happen and then doing things before they kind of get to the severity we've seen in the news? Well, you have. Already, for example, in the US, there are a fire forecast. You can go online and actually see whether, you know, what the forecast is. But of course, a forecast just means that region is, you know, you know, can potentially burn. But, of course, it doesn't mean to say that every part of that area is going to burn. And so, you know, again, people say, well, it's never happened here before. Well, you don't need to worry.

There is an attempt now in the UK to look specifically at how we can develop a fire warning index here in the UK. And there are some mechanisms of doing that, but it's not been very satisfactory. But there is research going on at the moment. in which is trying to develop a new system. But again, it's not just a matter. If you put out an alert, you know, people say, it's like the Met Office puts out alert of you don't want to be in the sun or you want to, you know, a pollen alert or whatever.

If you put out a forecast, to what extent do people take any notice? Until we have a proper discussion about fire, about that it might happen in our community, then people would just say, well, okay, it does not going to affect us. And I think the other problem is if you have a fire warning and it keeps on happening, they say, oh, it's like to be a high fire day and there's no fire, then people just then ignore it. I think until there's a really major fire, for example, in southern England, I'm not sure

that most people will take any notice of fire. It's something they're here on the news. It's not something which is affecting them. And I think that's the case in many things. until it happens to your own community, you tend to think, well, I've got plenty of other things to worry about and not think about that. Looking to the future in the UK,

do you think we can expect to see more wildfires then in the coming years and the coming decade, for example? I think that's quite likely, especially if we have these slight shifts in the way our weather works. It isn't just simply a matter of higher temperatures, although that is significant. It's a matter of periods of, say, wet winters and springs followed by dry summers.

So it depends on the fact that you might have a lot of plant growth at one period and then becomes very dry where that vegetation dries out and is available as a fuel to burn. And I think that that is the most worrying thing. I'm surprised to some extent that we've escaped a really major fire. it's probably luck rather than design. But I think certainly there are one or two people in our community, both in the forestry and in the government, who are beginning to push the agenda, this up the agenda of something significant to worry about and plan,

because there's no use having one of these after analysis and say, well, we could have done better. We need to think ahead of time and think, well, if we do have such a fire, what can we do? What are the measures we can take? And I think we certainly have begun to do that with Cobra and some of the government schemes where we've got a number of scientists

and a number of people from the forestry involved and from the fire service who realize the problem and are beginning to plan. But it's not there in the normal community. So we need to increase the discreet. discussion within our community about fire, because it's always there as a negative. And of course it is a negative in this country, in many cases, because we haven't got a lot of natural vegetation in southern England, for example, or plant planted.

But certainly, I think globally, we need more and more to put fire as a process up the agenda. After all, if you look, you know, you say what are the major features of climate change? People are talking about flooding or about hurricanes or about whatever, but fire is actually there. It's part of the system just like, you know, rain and flooding is. So people are now beginning to understand that why there are things called floodplains is because they tend to flood. And so people are thinking about that, you know, should we be building our houses and floodplains or should we plan to protect our areas from flooding? Equally, we should think about, you know, we've got vegetation that's being burned.

Maybe we should take account of that. Should we actually think about, you know, what kind of areas which we need to have breaks, fire breaks, or should we think about not planting certain types of trees in certain environments? Because it's not always the best thing to just plant trees, will you know, nearly. And so I think there means to be a much bigger discussion within this country about fire. That was Andrew Scott talking about the future of wildfires. His book, Burning Planet, The Story of Fire Through Time, is out now. Thanks for listening to the Science Focus podcast.

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Thank you for listening to the Science Focus podcast from the BBC Focus magazine team. We're the UK's best-selling science and technology monthly available in print and in several digital formats throughout the world. more at sciencefocus.com or look out for us in your app store. This podcast is sponsored by Name, Audio and Focal. The texture and emotional depth of music can be lost through digital sources or poor signal. Name Audio believes you can have digital precision with analogue warmth.

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