Lemonade Stand - Are We Getting Drafted? | Ep 016 Lemonade Stand 🍋

Episode Date: June 19, 2025

On today's show... Atrioc points at a map, DougDoug teaches us to draw, and Aiden gives investment advice. We launched a Patreon! - https://www.patreon.com/lemonadestand for bonus episodes, discord a...ccess, a book club, and many more ways to interact with the show! Episode: 016 Recorded on: June 18th, 2025 Clips Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCurXaZAZPKtl8EgH1ymuZgg Follow us TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@thelemonadecast Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/thelemonadecast/ Twitter - https://x.com/LemonadeCast The C-suite Aiden - https://x.com/aidencalvin Atrioc - https://x.com/Atrioc DougDoug - https://x.com/DougDougFood Edited by Aedish - https://x.com/aedisheditsa Produced by Perry - https://x.com/perry_jh Segments 0:00 There's a pattern 3:00 No Kings 10:00 Interesting... 14:30 The Metals Company 19:00 Quick History 38:41 Why now? 47:00 Cruz v. Carlson 54:04 Nukes and the Middle East 1:10:02 Big Tech gets recruited 1:19:42 How to draw Shrek 1:25:49 Lawsuits 1:31:59 Corrections 1:33:57 Outro New takes on Business, Tech, and Politics. Squeezed fresh every Thursday. #lemonadestand #dougdoug #atrioc #aiden Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 There's more to life than finding the perfect car. But finding the perfect car can help you get the most out of life. Like the SUV that handles everything from drop off to off road, and the car that hulls groceries and hockey teams, or the van that's gone from just practical to practically family. Whatever you want, wherever you're going, start your search at autotrater.ca, Canada's car marketplace. Amazon presents Laura versus Fruitflies
Starting point is 00:00:34 Swarming your fruit and terrorizing your kitchen These little freaks multiply at a rate that would make a rabbit say yo Chill But Laura shopped on Amazon and saved on cleaning spray, countertop wipes, and fly traps Hey fruit flies, your baby boom ends here Save the Everyday with Amazon There's something else here now, something new. From exclusively on Paramount Plus.
Starting point is 00:01:05 It's the series Stephen King calls Scarious Hell. Everything here is impossible, but it's also real. Sci-fi vision calls it the best show streaming right now. We're running out of time and we still don't know the rules. Don't miss what the movie blog calls something you need to watch. Saving those children is how we all go home. From binge all episodes exclusively on Paramount Plus. Guys, I'm worried.
Starting point is 00:01:31 I am worried about a pattern that I am seeing with this show. Three weeks ago, we record on a Wednesday. The next day, the world's richest man calls the president a pedophile. Big news right after we record. Yeah. Next week, we record on a Wednesday. Right after there's protests in the city that we live in that become nationwide news that spread into massive protests on the next Saturday between when we record.
Starting point is 00:01:54 Next week and we record on a Wednesday thinking, finally, good news episode. The day after, possibly we get the start of World War III in the Middle East, Israel strikes Iran, Iran counterattacks. So I don't know why to tell you this, but by the time you see this, the worst has probably happened. This is like a time capsule for the innocence loss. Because 24 hours from now, the world will be destroyed.
Starting point is 00:02:16 Dude, someone is watching this from the bunker as the new fall, dude. As I, we're, we're, we are, I don't know if we're causing it, but we're, do you think we have a moral obligation to not talk? We're making it worse. what I was thinking, it's like, maybe we need to shut this shit off. Because we did last week's episode and the missiles got fired into Iran and two political assassinations happened in the U.S. or an attempt and a successful. Dude, imagine we take a...
Starting point is 00:02:44 I don't know if you call it successful. I don't know what the word is there. Imagine we take a week off and it's a utopia. And there was a terrible, there was another terrible plane crash. Yeah. Oh, yeah. It was our hubris to do a good episode. The world was like, fuck you guys. You're slinging everything at you.
Starting point is 00:03:07 That's what it is, Doug. We did a good news episode and they threw a bunch of bad news. So if we really need to help the world out at some point, we just do a depression episode. And that should stay for like a week. We get respite. It's actually not a bad idea. I can't wait for the good news.
Starting point is 00:03:21 Okay. Well, I mean, one of the things we're talking about today is interesting, if not terrible news, Israel and Iran conflict. So I introduce something new. I'm going to propose to you guys right now. We're going to talk about a lot of things today. And you got the topics. Okay.
Starting point is 00:03:34 I'm introducing the lemon of truth. Okay. This is the bitten lemon from the first episode. If you say something while holding the lemon, it is a sign that you're just asking a question and trying to figure something out. It doesn't reflect your personal opinions or beliefs. That's the way you can have a podcast discussion and bring something up while
Starting point is 00:03:52 everyone notices that you're holding the lemon. Do you understand, Doug? Shouldn't it be the limit of misinformation? Yes. a misinformation. Ask that with the lemon. Now I can't be mad at you for insulting my lemon idea.
Starting point is 00:04:04 I think. AI is good. It's more of a statement. Now I can say whatever I want. I'm holding the lemon. Yeah, can take your job. And no one's allowed to get mad.
Starting point is 00:04:17 Guys, I was holding the lemon. All right. That's the thing. The lemon gives you unstoppable power. You can't be. It's like diplomatic immunity. It's like. It's like.
Starting point is 00:04:24 Okay. Do you want to kick us? Oh, wait, no, we have a couple things. We have a lot of things. Not only did Israel-Iran happen.
Starting point is 00:04:29 Also, the protests kept happening in LA, and then I went to them. And then you went to them, right? Yeah, the No Kings ones was an expanded version around the military parade that Trump held. Yes. And they were all over the country. It was like, I don't remember the numbers,
Starting point is 00:04:43 but it's like 2% of America. It was a gigantic number of millions. There was no one in Queenstown, Maryland, which is where I was for the weekend. There's a lot of protests going on there. There was the group chat ex-Aiden in Maryland. They had a big protest and you weren't there. My experience is basically reiterating exactly what you guys said last week,
Starting point is 00:05:02 which is that the perception of the protests is that it's death and destruction, at least in Los Angeles. And so I went to the ones downtown after the dispersal order was put out, meaning the police are trying to disperse it. And they were like using tear gas a little bit. And that was it. It was like no fires, no violence, no nothing.
Starting point is 00:05:21 It was, and there was probably 100,000 people downtown next to the Capitol. And it was interesting. Right before going, I listened to some of the All In podcast, which, again, is if they replaced the more moderate guy, David Freiburg, with Tucker Carlson this week. So it was a good, with a nice balance conversation. And they were talking about the protests and they were, they were fair and fair balances. And so they were, and actually Tucker was more balanced. He was just like, he gave the kind of standard, you know, let's right leaning perspective where he's like, I just, I pay taxes. I don't think my tax dollars should go to supporting and policing illegal immigrants. We should post, we should, you know, support legal immigration. That should be the purpose. And then David Sacks comes in and he's like, well, I think we're ignoring the question, which is L.A. was burning to the ground
Starting point is 00:06:03 until Trump said in the National Guard. And so, you know, it's just, it's so obviously not true, having gone there and seen it. And even the, yeah, it was just, it was mellow. It really was. Like, dude, I had a, it was like one of the first pieces of news recently
Starting point is 00:06:21 that made me feel good. Going in person. seeing that many people and they were all waving American flags and there's people old and young and different races and I was talking to people. Everyone was nice and it made me feel like oh maybe America's got some hope. Maybe people got, you know, I was and I don't even mean that
Starting point is 00:06:39 in like a political way. I just felt like people are outside. They're talking to each other in person. People aren't as angry. Everyone was waving creative signs. I just felt some sort of like sense that a lot of what I'm hating lately is mostly online. I just feel like this filter between people's algorithmic filter is making people more angry.
Starting point is 00:06:59 And when I saw them in person, I felt better. So it was a positive moment. Plus, you know, to have protests that have, I don't know, multiple millions across the country and to have, I mean, none or very little violence or protests, no, no deaths, no deaths, no injuries, no. Even the LA ones we talked about had more in that one LA protest than the entire country, it seemed to be in the entire No Kings ones. So it was cool. You know, I don't know, it was a good, good optics for the country and felt like a good protest. All right.
Starting point is 00:07:29 Yeah. What was your villain chair? Stupid libs. Yeah. Yeah, villain. Don't give him a little. Don't give him a little. This is from his heart.
Starting point is 00:07:35 So I want you guys to maybe answer this question because I was curious what the more conservative response in the country was to these protests just online. And I wanted to dig into like what the, what the feedback was specifically to the no king's protests of the past weekend. And the pervasive thing I saw over and over again was them making fun of, well, the protests were success. America doesn't have a king anymore. And as in like, we never had one. These protests make no sense. Liberals just like make stuff up. They don't, like, what is the intention of a no king's protest where millions of people can be protesting across the country with essentially no hold up or conflict to that protest? And they get to sick.
Starting point is 00:08:22 do that, is that not a demonstration of the fact that we do not live in an autocracy? And that was the main criticism that I saw online circulated. I was curious what you guys might have to say in response to that. I think when people talk about Trump being dictatorial, they are talking about a process, not a current state of being. talking about a shaking or a degrading of the Constitution or of, you know, separation of power, judicial authority. So I would assume the point of the No King's protest is not that we currently have a king, we need to get rid of them. It's more like we should never have Kings
Starting point is 00:09:04 and we're headed in the wrong direction. That would be my... Yeah, I do think that is more common sense. That critique is obviously taking it very literally. Do you guys know, was the No Kings protest organized in response to ICE and the immigration stuff. Because in downtown L.A., like 95% of the signs were about immigration or ICE,
Starting point is 00:09:25 and the Trump No King concept was there in signs, but basically always to support this is about immigration. It seemed like this was an anti-immigration policy protest to me. On the whole, I don't think so. My understanding is No Kings was specifically a response to him planning the military played in D.C. That was the origin of the No Kings protests. And then the Immigrants,
Starting point is 00:09:47 protest that had broken out in L.A. the weekend before happened to coincide with the timeline. Like these things, no Kings was being planned more than a week in advance. Yeah, gotcha. And then this also happened in L.A. in response to those ice raids. And then those things kind of collide because they have very similar messaging. I mean, at the core of the, or one of the core things of the Trump autocracy, like Antiquing argument is the. approach to immigration, you know, pulling people in unmarked vehicles, ice overstretching the boundaries of previous administrations even. And that being a symbolism of him becoming a king or fascism occurring. And that is why that response was happening in LA to begin with and why it
Starting point is 00:10:36 molds well into the broader messaging that I think no kings has, which is, you know, his, the idea of the Trump administration becoming something akin to an autocracy is not just about immigration. But immigration is a very big part of that. So I think it's a piece that just fit into these protests. From what I saw and looking at a picture is like the LA one was more focused on immigration because of what happened. That makes sense. But it was just cool. Even regardless of, again, for me, the biggest thing was that people are, I don't know, willing to get out of their house and meet other people and talk about it and advocate for themselves. And that's so many people did that was a good sign. I was just, I was more regardless of even what the
Starting point is 00:11:13 message was, I was just happy of that. Because I get the sense of something. times that I worry sometimes that people move on from subjects so quickly that we could never even organize or get it or get out there or do anything or connect or so I don't know that was cool that's why that's why I like it personally I thought it was good yeah well I want to hear a little bit about the the real king in this country Jerome Powell JP what and what's going on yeah just a little update because we're recording on a Wednesday Jerome Powell uh chairman of the Federal Reserve had a press conference this morning, the FOMC meetings, where they announce, if they're going to, it sounds really boring, but whether they're going to raise injurious rates,
Starting point is 00:11:51 whether they're going to lower them or they're going to keep them the same. And for the past, I don't know, four or five, for a while, they've been just keeping it steady. And the idea is, you raise it if you think there's going to be inflation, you lower it, if there's going to be high unemployment, and you keep it the same if you don't really know, if you want to just keep it steady. And it's been steady, steady, steady, and Trump has been getting more and more furious. Because he wants it to go down. He wants it to go down. He's screaming that drum One pal is behind the curve. He's a loser.
Starting point is 00:12:16 He's lazy. He's bad. He's the worst. Trouble pointed him, by the way. But he's been saying how terrible he is and that he needs to bring interest rates down. Again, that's not just a Trump thing. Every president generally wants interest rates to go down because it juices the economy in the short term.
Starting point is 00:12:32 What is like the immediate impact to an everyday person if interest rates go down versus up? Yeah. So, for example, if you're getting a mortgage or a house loan, all loans are based upon being above the risk-free rate, which is what he's setting. Whatever the government interest rate is, the house loan or the car loan or the credit card loan has to be above that.
Starting point is 00:12:52 So when that one goes down, all the other ones go down as well. So, yeah, the general idea is that it gets more loans in the economy, spurs the economy, and it starts to kind of get things going. And Trump really wants to go down, but Jerome Powell very, very worried in the conference today about inflation,
Starting point is 00:13:08 specifically because of tariffs. He's like afraid that the tariffs are going to start kicking in and inflation's going to go up, and they need to not lower it into that, which will just ramp up inflation. So he's holding steady yet again. That's all.
Starting point is 00:13:19 I mean, it's just another steady thing, but it's like each three-month cycle, he goes steady and doesn't change it again. Trump is clearly getting more agitated. It's clearly becoming more and more of a problem. And it's not going to hit until early 26, but that's when Trump can replace him. And so that's where we're going to see
Starting point is 00:13:36 if we get a new chairman who's willing to like just, you know, run industry rates into the ground. Everyone can borrow for zero percent again. and we get back to like a 2021. Bonanza. Bonanza. But this time with inflation riproaring, you know, that's the risk. Let me just make sure I can express this.
Starting point is 00:13:55 Correct me if I'm wrong here. Part of the reason that we don't want to lower interest rates because it's a short-term boost and everybody's like, yeah, everything's cheaper. But then the problem is that if there's inflation or something like that, we then don't have the, or if there's a major problem, we don't have that as an option to lower again, right? So in the future, if there is a major recession,
Starting point is 00:14:13 or something and we're already at zero. We can't lower it anymore, right? Exactly. We need leeway. Okay. Yeah. Because it doesn't feel like we're an emergency situation right now. It feels like everything's actually pretty good in terms of the stock market, the economy,
Starting point is 00:14:27 and most of the, let's say, challenges or damages due to the tariffs, which is like, it's self-imposed. Like, it doesn't, yeah. It's tough. I don't know either. I mean, Jerome Powell's got a lot of data. My gut would tell me that, like, at least among. younger people. Among youth unemployment, it just looks bad. It looks bad. So maybe there's a problem
Starting point is 00:14:51 there, but also I do see the risk of inflation. I can see why he's just holding steady because you don't know. It all seems like a lot of uncertainty. I don't know. It's interesting. But I think there feels like a theme across this issue and other things is that we can't clearly identify an economic crisis that we're currently in. Like it hasn't hit crisis mode quite yet, but we're exhausting all the levers and tools that we might be able to use once we get to that point, including, you know, when we talked about the national debt on that one episode, talking about the levers that you have to deal with recession and how debt limits your ability to do those things. Or in this case, your ability to lower interest rates further. But if you already have them near zero, you can't keep pushing them down. I guess you could have a negative interest rate. Yeah, some countries done that. Japan's done that. Some people do negative interest rates, which is where you're, you're going to. I'm going to. you're paying money to. You have to pay money to hold your...
Starting point is 00:15:48 Yeah, you have to pay money to loan the government money. That's a good deal. That's a good deal. I have an idea. Why doesn't the government just do a strategic TMC reserve? Because in our stock game, if you pull this up Perry on the iPad, as a reminder, we've been checking on this over the past six months. Our own little Warren Buffett. Currently, Aiden is in first place in the first place in the
Starting point is 00:16:13 stock challenge. Ludwig is of course dead last and the only one who's lost money. We've actually raised, if we sold everything right now it would be $9,000 for charity, which is pretty high. Pretty good. So the average that we're up is what like 15% across the rest of the portfolio and then Aidan comes in with the metals company which is up
Starting point is 00:16:29 324% Why? Move over marine biologists. It's time for me to collect. This is underwater metals? This is what their vibe is? Yeah, this is that we've briefly talked about this before but basically this company is leading,
Starting point is 00:16:46 one of the leading companies in the space of like deep sea metal mining, and I watched a documentary about it or like a news piece about it, I think of almost three years ago. Like super, super early. The reason that I was super interested in this topic was there's this gigantic political game
Starting point is 00:17:04 around ownership over the ocean floor, the rights to own it, the environmental consequences of mining this. who is evaluating the environmental consequences and whose payroll they're on and the United Nations agency that is responsible for dealing with this problem even though it has nothing to do
Starting point is 00:17:25 with their original job description and it's a very small agency. So a very, very interesting story and if you want to hear more about it, we talked about it on a test episode that we're going to publish on our Patreon. Oh yeah. Patreon.com slash lemonadestand.
Starting point is 00:17:37 But the whole of it is that this company, I, this was the only stock or niche company that I just had. I did zero preparation for the stock competition. I want to be so clear. And this was the only company that just came to mind that I could think of that wasn't like an S&P 500 top bill sort of company. So I just threw, I was like, yep, the metals company. Let me lock it in.
Starting point is 00:18:01 Their share price at the time at the beginning of this game was like a dollar, a dollar 50 or something like that. Yeah. It was really low. Maybe even a dollar flat. And now it has ballooned to, I mean, it hits seven earlier today. Wait, can I just say, can you go out, Doug? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:17 So, so, I mean, first of all, collapse for the lemonade stand because the S&P is currently at negative. So we're all beating the S&P by 20 points, which is again, an incredible, like, if you were on Wall Street, that is an insane bonus. You've done an incredible year. We're not going to hold this, I'm sure. But anyway, we've all been pretty well. Doug is in second place with 22.9%, which is an incredible return, like a really
Starting point is 00:18:39 your one stock has done more than Doug's entire portfolio in second way more than mine that's crazy DMC is like an incredible i mean it's basically seven x right am i am i wrong that's unreal it is close to improving on itself seven times over 234% return yeah the the reason that this is the case i barely looked into this before the show today so please forgive me they got some massive investment from a South Korean company that promised committed to buying a certain quantity of shares down the line at seven, sorry, at $7. And they put a bunch of money up front and then additional money is going to come
Starting point is 00:19:23 in at a specified share price down the line. So this just skyrocketed the price from like mid $3, $4 to $7. So I don't know how this plays out or if this will last. it's just pretty wild that one stock could explode this much and this is all because I watched like a five-minute MSNBC news clip. I mean, he got a 53% return on Ocuhjib
Starting point is 00:19:48 where he just asked Chad Chit, give me a stock to invest in. Yeah. That's like our fourth best performing stock of the whole draft. He's just absolutely. The first best performance stock is an AI trained on me that made up, that picked a random company and then lied about their performance.
Starting point is 00:20:05 Like I clearly didn't know. anything about it. And the company is now up 53% and it's propelled me into second place. This is like, this is monkeys at typewriters, bro. Yeah, it is literally stupider than that. It is, it's not good. I have no, if you're listening to this, don't let this be the reason you start investing in anything. I know, I think the lesson is this watch documentary is investing the first thing you see. And then if you can't figure that out, use Chad J. And that lemonade stand is financial advice. I just want to be clear. We are up over the S&P points. Take your money out of the S&P 500 and put it in the.
Starting point is 00:20:36 the lemonade stand three. You know what else is money? Iran. Oh, that's your transition? Yeah. Hold the lemon for that one. I've heard that and so I'll lemon here.
Starting point is 00:20:51 I don't know if this is true. Iran is a country? Yes, I actually think you're dead on with that one. And I would appreciate a primer. Can I get the lemon? What the frick is going on over there? This is a complicated, effing issue. I think we're all aware of that.
Starting point is 00:21:03 It's happening breaking news this week. In fact, it's breaking news now. I'm sure by tomorrow would be different. I don't know if Perry, you could pull up that article we're looking at from the FT, but it's like Trump is right now, as we're speaking saying, I don't know if I'll tackle man or not.
Starting point is 00:21:14 Will I or won't I? You know, we don't know how this is going to play out, how the U.S. is going to get involved, anything. So take it all with a grain of salt, but I did repair a short primer that might give you guys, or the general, I don't know, maybe mostly American audience, some idea of like how we got to this point,
Starting point is 00:21:34 rather than try to break down the specifics of breaking news. because I don't know it's going to play out and I don't much care to like give a deep way in on it. So if you don't mind, I'll go to a presentation. Educate us.
Starting point is 00:21:44 Okay. Okay, I'm here at the lemonade stand, horse electrolyte powered, stable, aka breaking news center. And I want to talk to you about the Middle East today. This is a nice map
Starting point is 00:21:57 of the Middle East. The Middle East. The Middle East? Country. No, no. That's the big. Middle East is a region filled with a lot of countries.
Starting point is 00:22:04 Great question. Aidan, get your question. questions better. You're not keeping up with Doug. Where's my presentation thing? Okay. So, I want to explain why we're always hearing so much about the Middle East and why every other country seems to care deeply about the Middle East and why these regional conflicts have so much foreign meddling and so much interest from everyone else. And I think we all know the basic answer, but sort of this cartoon. You guys know that trope in movies and TV where one character is so hungry, he sees the other one as food.
Starting point is 00:22:37 Yeah. Yeah. Timeless. This is how the rest of the world sees the Middle East as oil. Oh. Okay? This is what they see is what the big regional powers of any era in the past hundred years have seen when they look at the Middle East.
Starting point is 00:22:53 It's oil, crude oil, petroleum, curle oil, oil, oil. And then is that Afghanistan with opium? I believe so. Okay. That's cool. You got to have a little fun. You have a little fun. You have a little fun.
Starting point is 00:23:03 Paraly and fruit stuff. But mostly it's oil. And oil, as we all know, is like the lifeblood of the modern economy. It is transport, it is plastics. It is everything runs on it. Even as we get more electrified, we try to move off of oil. It is still so incredibly vital to modern economies. Every single barrel of oil that comes out of the ground gets bought.
Starting point is 00:23:24 Not a single one is just sitting there on the shelf unsold. Everyone buys it. Everyone needs it. It's important. So especially in the post-industrialization of World War I World War II era, people have realize that it's incredibly important to their country. And because Middle East has 6% of the world's population, but 30% of the oil, it has always been drawn into conflict and meddling and interest because of the power of oil.
Starting point is 00:23:47 It needs to be understood. I think most people understand this on a base level, but this is like... In one time, there's been... I'm going to get to that. Okay. Another thing that's really important, especially in the modern day with the Middle East, are these three red circles. I used YouTube circles so we can all understand what's going on.
Starting point is 00:24:04 These three are like key shipping lanes. Okay. This is the Suez Canal. Something like 15% of the world's trade goes through this. So if you have military strategic or air superiority over this area, you have a real geostrategic advantage. And if someone else does, then you're at threat of them. Could you remind me?
Starting point is 00:24:23 Is Suez Canal completely owned and controlled by Israel or by Egypt? I think... By Egypt. But Israel has had control over the canal, right? At times, I believe. I, give me the limit, I don't know. I'm not sure. I'm fairly certain there's been periods
Starting point is 00:24:38 where they took it over and it was controversial. But anyway, so Egypt controls the canal. Yeah, I mean, Britain at one point controlled it. It's now been taken, like Egypt has nationalized it, but I think there's like a consortium of countries that have a stake in it because it's so incredibly important. That's the idea.
Starting point is 00:24:51 This, the gate of tears down here, 12% of the world's trade goes through here. That's why there was so much conflict with the Houthis in Yemen because they could cut that off. And then there's the, am I blanking on the name? I know this is the straight of Iran. The straight of Hormuz.
Starting point is 00:25:08 Oh. But basically. This is where something like 20% of the world's oil. A fifth of the world's oil goes to this straight. It is so incredibly important. Because it's all the oil coming out of like Iran, Qatar, all the oil comes out of these countries. And it goes out to, you know, through here to Europe.
Starting point is 00:25:25 It goes to China. It goes to India. It's so important. And Iran has the ability to mine and close off this straight. which could cut off the lifeblood of countries all over the world. So these are really, really important. And every other country, all the major powers want to make sure that these don't fall under the hands of someone who could be their enemy, who could cut that off from them. Everyone wants, Middle East basically, to be divided and to not have enough power to control or have authority over these because you're so important.
Starting point is 00:25:52 I just want that to be understood from a strategic level. Okay. Oh, there's all the stats I fervis forgetting. I forgot I wrote them down. Okay, so that is why all the major strategic powers around the world are coming in to try and redraw lines in the Middle East or get involved. Okay, this is this is why we get it. Now, if you flash back, again, you see here, this is U.S., Russia, and China, who all have their own proxies and influence in the Middle East. If you flash back, turn to the 1900s, China was not a major power.
Starting point is 00:26:23 It was Britain. So it was the same three, there were three big powers, but not China, okay? And I want to start there to get an idea of where we all, how we got to where we are today. because we're talking about Israel attacking Iran. But I want to give a context for why Iran is where it is and why Iran is such a center of conflict for the West in general and then Israel. Because the tectonic plates moved it there.
Starting point is 00:26:47 That's right. I'm going to start with Pangea. Can you go further back? So the Big Bang really kicked off. And the Big Bang is a country. Doug, you're going to meet all the last. maybe. So this is the current Ayatollah of Iran.
Starting point is 00:27:05 Iran is a theocracy, pretty repressive, and again, a direct enemy of, you know, death to the United States, death, the Israel, whatever. And I want to go how they got to that specific point. So this is William Darcy. He is a British socialite. He's a party boy.
Starting point is 00:27:25 He had rich parents. He went to Australia on a whim. He made a bunch of money doing some money. doing some mining companies. He wasn't even, he didn't do any of the mining. He just threw some money out of it. It kind of like TMC actually. An Australian does own TMC.
Starting point is 00:27:37 An Australian Aiden threw some money on TMC, made a bunch of money. He's rich as hell. He's like looking for his next business opportunity. He heads over to Persia, which is now modern day I ran in like 1900. And he says to the leader of Persia, I don't remember this guy's name, he goes, hey, listen, I think I could find oil in your country. I'm going to make it rich. if you, I'll give you $3.7 million.
Starting point is 00:28:01 This is in today's money. I adjusted it. If you give me exclusive rights to look for all the oil in Persia for the next 60 years, I'll give you 16% of the profits. The rest goes to me. Now, at the time, there was no oil found, and it's mostly desert, mostly undeveloped. So this guy goes, LOL deal. He goes, fine, I'll take the millions of dollars.
Starting point is 00:28:22 I don't think you're going to find anything. And what's crazy is he doesn't find anything for a year, for two years. for three years, for four years, for five years, for six years. It's a big country. He's looking, he's looking, spending money, he's wasting his fortune. They're not finding anything. And then after seven years, I don't remember the exact region, they strike oil. And it's a huge oil field.
Starting point is 00:28:44 It's a juicer. Nice. It's a massive one. It's a fortune. It's a game-changing level of wealth. I got a pog in the chat, bro. Damn. A pog for Darcy.
Starting point is 00:28:54 Can we get a W for Darcy? His seven years struggle has to be. And now the wealth he stands to make from this makes this investment seem really, really smart. It makes it really beneficial, especially because he signed a 60-year deal, which is absurd. Okay. So now he forms the Anglo-Iranian oil company, which becomes a massive success. Or it's just printing cash, geysers of oil, cash money. And he only has to give 16% of the profits back.
Starting point is 00:29:27 to Iran. So it's an incredible deal for him. And the Iranians are kind of miffed. This is not looking good. Okay. I don't know if you know anything about the period of history between 1907 and 1950, but something happened in there that made oil really important. I don't know, Doug, you got me. Could be. The iPhone. That's right. Steve Jobs invented the iPhone and they needed oil to ship them around the world. Was it the two World War that happened? That's right. And it was World War I and World War II. World War I and World War II. And those are a country. These are countries.
Starting point is 00:30:04 And in these wars... In these wars, Britain especially, you know, before War I, Britain is the global superpower. By the end of World War II, they're greatly diminished. But in those wars, they basically put their entire economy towards surviving these two wars, and they need oil. They need oil badly. So they decide, this can't even be a private company anymore.
Starting point is 00:30:26 They take over Darcy's... company and make it into what is now British Petroleum. That's where it comes from, BP. Oh, and they've stayed pretty controversy free. Yeah, so they buy him out, and now this is the British Petroleum Company, and they own Iran's oil, essentially. Iran's oil essentially nationalized by Britain, which is a weird spot to be in. Then this guy comes along.
Starting point is 00:30:55 I'm going to get his name wrong, but it's Mohamed Moshehran. a day, but I'm probably saying it wrong, okay? You assume me. Give me the lemon if I had the same. This guy comes along in Iran. He is democratically elected, and he rides a wave of populist support in Iran, basically saying, hey, this oil deal sucks, and we need to nationalize Iran's oil for ourselves. Now, to be super clear, he actually is, first of all, he's like pretty pro-Western, pro-America,
Starting point is 00:31:23 and he starts off by saying, like, hey, I just want a better deal. Give us 50% split. Give us a better split. Give us insight into the book so we know we're not getting cheated on the profit split. Britain goes, LOL, no. Britain goes, nah,
Starting point is 00:31:34 no deal. I'm beginning to see how this links with my knowledge of Iranian history. I'm beginning to connect the dots here. It's all going to start to catch up. So this guy goes, we want a better deal. Britain goes, no,
Starting point is 00:31:45 eventually he wins the election and he goes, fine. If we're not getting a better deal, we nationalize it. So he completely takes the oil fields from Britain and nationalizes them for Iran, at which point, Oh, he actually becomes time man of the year. Like, again, he's very well respected in the West at first.
Starting point is 00:32:01 He's democratically elected. This is before the nationalization, but Britain, this is where he signs the deal. He signs the deal nationalizing the oil fields. Britain gets angry. Britain is very, very pissed because this is a strategically important source of oil for them. They've invested a lot into it. And, of course, they have this piece of paper that says they have it for 60 years, which is only about 10 years from being up.
Starting point is 00:32:23 But they're like, you can't, you cannot. break our deal. So they go to U.S. President Truman and say, get him. You know, this guy's breaking our deal. Britain's a little bro at this point. They've lost so much power post-World War II that they go to their big bro and say, hey, go get him. Truman goes, no.
Starting point is 00:32:43 Truman goes, this guy's cool, just give him a better deal. Truman literally says, Truman at the time is signing a deal with Saudi Arabia for 50-50-50 oil splits. And he's like, just do that. Give him 50-50. Don't make it a big thing. Britain is super angry. He doesn't want to do that.
Starting point is 00:32:54 then Truman is succeeded by Eisenhower. And Eisenhower is really, this is the 50s, really, really scared of communists. It's the beginning of the Cold War. He's very, very anti-communist. And Britain hatches a plot. This guy, by the way, Muhammad Masaday is not communist. But Britain hatches a plot where they'll say,
Starting point is 00:33:16 get him, he's communist. And they start really leaning on the angle of like this guy's, he's probably about to be a communist. He's a communist. You've got to watch out Eisenhower. He's a communist. If you don't get them, Iran's going to be communist. The more I learn about the red scare, the more insane it gets.
Starting point is 00:33:32 That era of politics, you know, through reading Price of Peace, through learning things we've learned on the show, and then just historically, it blows my mind how much you could get away with. Just calling anyone to go. Like, just saying something was a communist. It's like the Salem witch trials. It actually is like that. And Britain literally, it's their strategy.
Starting point is 00:33:52 It's written down. There's some league communicates or whatever. They're like, yeah, this is our plan. We're going to call him a communist. It's going to get Eisenhower on our side because we need big bro out on this. Eisenhower thinks about it. He's like, well, Truman didn't want to. Ah, we got to do it.
Starting point is 00:34:03 It's communist. So then Eisenhower's angry. Now he's like, all right, well, he said, now he's a communist, I'm involved. So he decides, okay, I'll help you out, little bro. And sends the CIA on Operation Ajax. Operation Ajax is led by a man literally named Kermit. This is not a joke. His name is Kermit Roosevelt.
Starting point is 00:34:24 And he's like the great grandson of, Deodor Roosevelt. Like he's actually related to presidents. Damn. I don't know if he's the grandson or grand nephew or whatever, but he's Kermit Roosevelt is sent in on a mission to get rid of Muhammad Mossadei in Iran. Not kill him, but get him out of power.
Starting point is 00:34:40 I don't have a picture here, but he does. That's the long and short of it as Kermit does. The CIA helps orchestrate a coup that overthrows Democratic elected president, Mohamed Mazzadei, for the shot. of Iran to come back. The Shah comes in. He is extremely pro-Britain, pro-West, repressive, and he is the one that's going to allow the oil to go back to Britain. That was the purpose.
Starting point is 00:35:05 And now I could tell you, we were really ripping that all over South America. Well, he was so funny. So it's interesting. This is the first one. And man, the history could have gone so different. I don't want to go too into it, but they send Kermit in. They give them a small budget and a small team. It fails. They try a coup. It fails. It fails. They try a coup, it fails, and they send him a letter saying, Get the hell out. And he goes rogue. Now, again, maybe this is changed over time.
Starting point is 00:35:32 I don't know, but the idea is that he like keeps going. He believes in it and keeps stirring up resentment and then hits on the right thing at the right time to start a spark in it. Anyway, he goes for a second coup. It works. And the success of that second coup is what makes them change their whole plan towards coups in South America. I don't think is in general. Like this kicks off. Like had.
Starting point is 00:35:52 Kermit just stopped American football. It could have been way different. Anyway, it's successful, so it's successful. We're going to see. Anyway, they get rid of the Democratic Party leader, and they get the Shah. The Shah is a complicated figure. The Shah, in some ways, really wants to modernize and improve Iran.
Starting point is 00:36:13 He wants to use the oil wealth. By the way, the oil never goes back to the original Britain deal, because the people of Iran are so against it. But it does go to like, it probably ends up at a 50-50 split, actually. It's close to a $5.000. 50, 50 split, which is insane because they could have had to begin with it. It could have just had that and none of this stuff. It really isn't insane how much meddling they did to get up in the same spot.
Starting point is 00:36:28 But anyway, so the Shah takes the profits and in some ways, actually in most ways, enriches himself and funds a repressive secret service to keep his power. That's most of what he does. It's called a Savac. It's like a, it's like a KGB. It's like, you know, whatever. It's a secret service that tortures political opponents and keeps his power and spies on people. Not a good guy.
Starting point is 00:36:49 But in some ways, this is the controversial part. he's also a modernizer. He also like liberalizes. He is for women's equality, women's education, you know, trying to be more like a Western democracy. One of Iran to be in that. Lemon, lemon, lemon. Prior to him, though, was Iran not already on a track of modernization?
Starting point is 00:37:09 Because the guy prior that we had been talking about, Muhammad, talked about, you said he was pretty like Western friendly, not severe in his crackdowns of like cultural issues. Give me the lemon too. Because it's also an area where I'm not deeply well versed. But my understanding, if I had a button I could press, the first guy was great. The first guy was like, Muhammad Masaday was like on the right track. He was balancing, you know, there's deep religious power in Iran.
Starting point is 00:37:42 And they have to be balanced with because they have a huge voting block and a huge authority. But he was balancing that with growth. And he was democratically elected and was trying to get a better deal already. I think he also was like friendly with America and they could have made deals. I think the meddling is clearly backfired in every way. But like I don't know what would have happened in these years because he wasn't all he wasn't around. Sure. So we don't know.
Starting point is 00:38:04 But we do know that like this guy was modern. This is Iran in 1979. Okay. And it looks like you might see like L.A. in the 70s. Like it looks like that. Then in 1979, after years of brutal repression by this guy. people finally revolt. But it's weird because it's a mix of people.
Starting point is 00:38:25 Half of it is like students and young people who feel like they're being economically left out and they want freedom and political rights and repression. And then half of it is like religious groups who really feel like things are getting too modern. And these two groups handshake because they both hate the Shah. And they're like, you know what?
Starting point is 00:38:43 We'll team up. We'll figure this all out later. Let's revolt and we'll figure this all later. Even though they deeply, deeply disagree about the future of Iran. well, the religious groups win. After, it's all over after, this is like a huge turning point in Iran's history.
Starting point is 00:38:58 And had this group came out on top, I mean, this revolution could have taken Iran in a whole different direction because it really was good to get rid of this forced by outsiders' shop. But the religious groups win. They have, you know, more, they just have a structure.
Starting point is 00:39:13 They have mosques all over the country. They have a structure, a plan, I think. And this guy promises, when he takes over, we're going to be still a democracy just with some more Islamic characteristics. The second it gets in power, it's brutal repression,
Starting point is 00:39:27 full theocracy, gets rid of other parties, not what we'd expect. And then women's rights take a huge backslide, a lot of rights to get huge blackslide. It's as repressive, if not more repressive,
Starting point is 00:39:36 in the previous regime. So it's not really a progress in any way. It's a backslide. But this country, now that they're out of from under the thumb and the Shah, still remembers 30 years of being tortured by the,
Starting point is 00:39:49 Shah, and that was because of American meddling. So there's this deep, decades-long resentment against the West and America specifically that is now fully free to run wild with this new Theocratic regime. And they, I mean, it becomes core of their philosophy is how much they don't like America because of that. That's like one of their stories of going to power. So that regime is still in power today. And in fact, we're only like one Ayatollah removed from the Ayatollah that had power then.
Starting point is 00:40:19 And the current I told is like 88 years old. I mean, it is just a dictator for life type thing, theocracy. That's the context you need to understand why Iran has become a strategic enemy of the United States. Now, why it's still so deadly important nowadays is because Iran, starting right around here pre-COVID, has been heavily sanctioned by the West
Starting point is 00:40:44 to not be able to sell oil. And these red lines is where they sell to China. Iran in recent years has become extremely dependent on exporting oil to China. And China, in turn, really values Iran because Iran is now a major source of Chinese oil, which they need for their lifeblood and growth. So there's a deep connection between Iran and China that is like only strengthened in recent years. Which is why, you know, geostrategically, China is now considering Iran something of a proxy in the Middle East. in the way that the United States does for Israel.
Starting point is 00:41:17 United States is the big bro for Israel. China's the big man for Iran. And it's both because both of them want strategic superiority over oil and control of these shippings in the Middle East. Like that's the bigger picture of why they're doing it. I'm not making a moral judgment on anything. I'm just saying this is why.
Starting point is 00:41:32 No, that was weird. I think you just endorsed it. Yeah. I'm just explaining why countries, you know, real politic why countries do what they do. So, and that's why, you know, you see their response is stronger and more than before.
Starting point is 00:41:43 That's why China considers this way more important than they used to because it has become more important than it used to for their oil. Okay. And that's why they're sending mysteriously transport planes in Iran and getting more involved. So this brings us to today or this week's news about the big battle between Israel and Iran. And I'm not going to go too deeply into that. I just want to explain why it happened this week, why it's happening now. And that is because this battle between Israel and Iran through proxies and through their own, you know, deep conflicts and religious
Starting point is 00:42:14 problems, has been happening for decades. And largely it has been done through their own many proxies, where Iran has been funding different groups that Israel's been fighting with. And that would be one, two, and three here. One is Hezbollah in Lebanon. Two was the Assad regime in Syria. And three was the Houthi rebels in Yemen. So all three of these were funded by Iranian oil as part of a larger struggle
Starting point is 00:42:41 between Israel and Iran. Now, you'll notice, we've watched the news over the past year and a half, you can literally go one, two, three over, Hezbollah was neutralized or lost, was defeated by Israel and mostly. The Assad regime in Syria fell after 50 years. And then recently Yemen signed a ceasefire, or not Yemen, the Houthi signed a ceasefire in Yemen. So as all the proxies one by one have been taken out, it is now over. opened up this strategic line between Israel and Iran where Israel sees an opportunity. Not right thing to do. You shouldn't be bombing sovereign nations. But I'm just saying this is why, on a real politic level, why it's happening now.
Starting point is 00:43:25 They're seeing an opportunity as there's weakness from all three of these. Again, also from another backer, weapons backer. Russia is also in a weak moment because they're focused entirely on Ukraine. So all of these things have combined at once to make this the moment. and that is why it's happening now. And I think all these things seem like disparate, unconnected events, but they're all deeply connected.
Starting point is 00:43:47 They chain one after another, and now we've arrived at this moment. I don't have deep commentary on it. I just want people to understand that so they know what they're getting into and understand how this all connects and what we're headed and why people have different goals in this conflict.
Starting point is 00:44:00 Yeah. So hopefully that helped in some way. It was great. That definitely helped a ton. I think with a lot of these things, right, you understand bits and pieces of the history. but not the...
Starting point is 00:44:12 And now we fully understand that. There's nothing else to learn. Yeah. I mean, there's, again, there's infinite mortal order. And every one of those things I mentioned, I could have deep-dived longer, but I think it helps an average listener to be like, okay, now I get a better clear picture
Starting point is 00:44:30 of how we got here. Do you know how much of the sense? Because my understanding is the justification for attacking Iran from both Israel and or the United States it's the nuclear bomb threat but then following up on that is the express threat to destroy America
Starting point is 00:44:47 in Israel, right? That's been like the verbiage coming out of the Ayatollah for a while, right? Do you know where that comes from to not just... Because there's a lot of people who dislike Britain and America, but I believe they're one of, if not the only countries, it's like we want to destroy you explicitly. It's because of the destabilization. It's the history of destabilization in Iran. Why they hate
Starting point is 00:45:09 the U.S. so specifically. Like the Shah was instated by the coup. So they, I think that's where the specific anger comes from. I'm not sure why it is so, I mean, I could take guesses, but the, like, there's a very concrete reason for the U.S., but for Iran's hatred of Israel, I don't, I'm not as familiar with the basis for that. I know that there's been historical conflicts with Israel in the area,
Starting point is 00:45:37 the way that Israel, like, came to existence in the first place. But I don't know why that Israel is like in the same like lockstep statement with the U.S. Just forgive me. I haven't watched or listened to the same version or same presentation of what led up to that. Yeah, I wouldn't feel comfortable giving that now. I would need to do more research. But, you know, even on a base level, you can just see it as when it comes to the Middle East, they're kind of locks that Israel and the United States are,
Starting point is 00:46:11 you know, Israel is in some ways a proxy. So for the U.S.'s interest in the region, at least when it comes to like oil and control and strategic military capabilities around the three he straits. So that's what I would say. I mean, there's, yeah, there's so much more we could get into. Okay, so I wanted to talk about a couple of things
Starting point is 00:46:31 was the framing of this for like the average person right now, right? these headlines started to break out. This kind of happened, I want to say, last year as well, when there was some smaller scale back and forth attacks between Israel and Iran. And I think it was April and October of last year. But people immediately, World War III, it's happening. We're going to get pulled in this conflict.
Starting point is 00:46:54 Other countries are going to get pulled into this conflict. This is the inflection for the globe's next great conflict. And people see it as that. But without the basis or the knowledge that you had just walked us through, right? The thing I wanted to start with was average people's sentiment right now with this happening. Yeah. Which is most people, I think even if you're more conservative and you voted for Trump, there's a very strong reaction to don't get involved in another conflict in the Middle East.
Starting point is 00:47:32 Don't pull us into this. we don't want to be involved. We don't want any more war or lives lost. And I think that's something that's very interesting here, where there's a maybe more classic, like, human rights position of don't, just do not get involved in a war because of all the, like, death and suffering it might cause. And I think that's heavily linked, like on a more left side, right? there's a lot of linked messaging to the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Gaza and all of the human suffering that has happened in Gaza within the past couple years.
Starting point is 00:48:12 And people are like this, the continued violence exercise by Israel is the issue and we should not be supporting them in any way. But if we come around to the other side, I think something that is so interesting to me is the way this issue seems to be frathing. the more right side of American politics right now, which is, and you already pulled it up. I think this clip is very interesting to watch. I'm going to send it to Perry, if you could pull it up. This clip, I think, yeah, you're going to say it, but exemplifies what you're talking about,
Starting point is 00:48:46 where we just talked about Tar Carlson. I don't remember in what context at the beginning of this episode, but he was on all end. Turkars on all in. So, yeah, I mean, Turk-Kallson expresses generally the Trump right-wing viewpoint. Like, that's, he's a mouthpiece for that. and he had Ted Cruz on his show. I'm sending the link right now.
Starting point is 00:49:02 I'm sorry. And really, really ripped into him over U.S. involvement or considering getting involved, getting, you know, actually putting troops or bombs or missiles on the ground in Iran. So this is the clip you could play it. How many people living around, by the way? I don't know the population at all. No, I don't know the population. You don't know the population of the country you seek to topple?
Starting point is 00:49:31 How many people living around? 92 million. Okay. Yeah. How could you not know that? I don't sit around memorizing population tables. Well, it's kind of relevant because you're calling for the overthrow of the government. Why is it relevant, whether it's 90 million or 80 million or 100 million?
Starting point is 00:49:47 Why is that relevant? Because if you don't know anything about the country. I didn't say I don't know anything about that. Okay, what's the ethnic mix of Iran? They are Persians and predominantly. Shia. Okay. No, it's not even, you don't know anything about Iran. So, okay, I am not the Tucker Carlson expert on Iran who says, you're a senator who's calling to the overthrowing government and you're the one who claims, you're the one who claims they're not trying to murder Donald Trump. You know, I'm not saying
Starting point is 00:50:14 that, who can't figure out if it was a good idea to kill General Soleimani and you said it was bad. You don't believe they're trying to murder Trump. Yes, I do. Because you're not calling for military strikes against them in retaliation. Okay, really believe that. We're carrying out military strikes to day. You said Israel was. Right. With our help. I said we. Israel is leading them, but we're supporting them. Well, this, you're breaking news here because the U.S. government last night denied the national Supreme Court of Trump that we were acting on Israel's behalf in any offensive capacity at all. We're not bombing them. Israel's bombing them. You just said we were. We are supporting Israel. You're a senator. If you're saying the United States government is a war with Iran right now, people are listening.
Starting point is 00:50:53 It's so. God damn. That's one of the most base things, Tar Crosse is, okay, so what's interesting is this clip has been going around a lot along with a couple other clips from this interview.
Starting point is 00:51:06 And there, it's not just Tucker Carlson. It's from what I've seen, people like Candice Owens, people like Majorie, Taylor Green. Yeah, if you pull up this in the background,
Starting point is 00:51:20 oh, this is not the right thing. People who are well, established in this maga like extreme what I would consider very far right position and have been lock and step with Trump's actions for so long supporting him in basically every capacity
Starting point is 00:51:42 and coming out on this specific issue and saying no we should not become involved in this conflict and I think this is really interesting in tandem with what we had talked about a couple weeks ago when we were talking about the national debt and the big beautiful bill dividing up portions of Trump's constituents. This is an issue that's finally breaking up a coalition that is pretty in line with one another when it, you know, let's say when it counts. And I wonder if this is the beginning with these issues in tandem with one another
Starting point is 00:52:23 and how important they are, why is this happening now finally? Are these issues just important enough for that to be the case? And is this the true fracturing of this political segment? I don't think it's going to dissolve overnight. I just think I haven't seen this in the past 10 years.
Starting point is 00:52:43 Yeah, dude. Well, my take would be is this. When he ran, he ran on these sort of broadly popular ideas like, he ran on. He ran on a pro-peace platform of, like, getting us out of it. We're going to end the war on day one. In Ukraine, we're going to not get involved in these needless wars. And he also ran on like a, you know, we're going to fix our budget platform.
Starting point is 00:53:04 Which similar to the deficit, I would argue, I don't know if he effectively ever backed that up with his actions. No, just words. But in wording and belief in the platform from the people who chose to vote for him. Yes. And, you know, full credit here to voters. It's not like Biden was pro. Pro peace or pro balanced budget, right? So it was a bad example there,
Starting point is 00:53:28 and Trump's running on the opposite of that. He's got words, and he's got this movement, and it unites all these different groups under this one banner. And then when the rubber meets the road of reality, and you have to actually legislate or make policies, that's when choices have to be made that are going to fracture these different groups. What I've really realized is that the only issue
Starting point is 00:53:48 that really unites all these different groups in the right is that they don't like this idea of woke. Now that like, you know, this doesn't feel as good to rally against woke once you have the house and the Senate and there, once we have all the power and the biggest podcasters are all relevant. Like once you have that,
Starting point is 00:54:05 it doesn't feel as rebellious to rally against woke, but like in that time, it worked and it helped unite everybody. But now it's what, it's when the dog catches the car finally. It's the last thread holding these different groups together. And there are like these Warhawk neocons. and then there's these more peace
Starting point is 00:54:22 one of the size of the party that don't want to get involved in isolationism, completely... So, yeah. I'm gonna say this, yeah, I wanted to villain chair this episode, because I wanted to spend some time, you know, what is the actual argument?
Starting point is 00:54:38 I think most people, when you ask them right now, the average person, is let's not get involved in this conflict. Yeah, can I show that perspective? As probably the least informed on this as three of us, I don't trust Israel, I don't trust the United States government when they say a country has weapons of mass destruction.
Starting point is 00:54:54 They said that when we were kids and we got locked into a 20-year war that has put us massively in debt and killed however many hundreds of thousands of people in buildings. The fact that they're like, oh, Iran's about to have a nuke. That's why we got to kill them and attack the country. It's like, dude, no. You can't fool me twice.
Starting point is 00:55:08 You're the boy who cried nuke, and we've already checked for the nuke several times. I don't trust you anymore. I don't get, you know, and then like you said, it's off the back of Israel, Palestine. It's just the, I think the level of trust in Israel's decision making, I think, is an incredible low. And my sense is I don't want anything to fucking do with this. Get us out of the Middle East.
Starting point is 00:55:31 20 year war, 20 year war, he said, we were only in Iraq for like 10 and a big. And that's, again, you know, that's the uninformed view. But I would suspect the vast majority of people agree with me and are like not a fucking another war in another country that supposedly has a weapon, which by the way, Tulsi Gabbard, who's the director of national intelligence, said, according to the U.S. international intelligence that they are not developing a nuclear bomb. That is from Tulsi Gabbard. So it's not like unanimous of like they have a nuke or anything. It's maybe. We live, I think collective we live in the shadow of 9-11 and the consequences of it. And the things that led up to
Starting point is 00:56:08 that as well. But we all remember the two wars that we got stuck in for so long that almost everyone agrees we shouldn't have been, we shouldn't have been doing that. Yeah. With Iraq specifically, I think if you ask people, if we should have invaded Afghanistan, I think people are a little more back and forth on it. But it is rare to find someone. I can't think of anyone I've met that was like, yeah, Iraq's solid call. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:56:35 And I don't think I've ever talked to that person. No, that's why I think you bring up a really good point here, Doug, and Aden is like, you know, it's easy to look at like the Ayatollah and Iran and say, this is a bad regime. Like what they're doing is repressive or what, you know, people, there's, I mean, there's, there's, there's, uh, tortures and killings and political prisoners and, but I just want to understand that Iraq, Saddam was not a good guy either, right? But there's like a long history of countries like saying, well, we got it. We got to have a regime change here. And it never almost, I mean, I can't think of a single example in history or it doesn't blow back. It always has, but this time will be different. But it's, everyone says it
Starting point is 00:57:13 this time. It's like the, even more, Lebanon, Goddafi and Libya, That's my understanding too. We overthrew like a basically helped overthrow a regime in Libya. And that happened more recently, you know, in the 2010s. And the consulate in Libya in bad shape after the back. Yeah, it just creates this weird power vacuum that gets filled with even more fighting. And usually, you know, Israel having the military capability to possibly topple the regime in Iran because they are weak right now, it seems.
Starting point is 00:57:43 does not mean they have the capability to manage or run or the moral authority or any type of authority to be able to have the long-term effects of that. So I want to build sort of this argument that I was looking into and point out some things here
Starting point is 00:58:01 because I was curious of for the people who are really pro intervention here, still, after everything we just talked about, why would that be the case? And I say this as someone who also thinks we, you know, personally, I don't want to become involved in this conflict.
Starting point is 00:58:18 I don't want more people to die. I come at this from a perspective of I, the human death and suffering in war feels like a horrid thing. You have to hold a lemon to say death and suffering is bad. I don't even need to be holding the lemon for that. I just come into this. I want to be so explicitly clear that like, you know, I'm a guy trying to figure this out like you listening to this right now are
Starting point is 00:58:41 and I don't want more people to. die and suffer. So why would someone be pro for this conflict? The first thing to start it is the nuclear weapon question. I wanted to come to what you had said. The U.S.
Starting point is 00:58:57 saying that they aren't close to a nuclear weapon or at least more mixed opinions from our country on whether or not they're close to a nuclear weapon is countered by the fact that Israel's intelligence is saying that they are much closer to a nuclear weapon than
Starting point is 00:59:13 other people understand or no, and they are insisting that that is the case. And that intervention, you know, collectively, no one wants Iran to have nuclear weapons. And that isn't just Israel and the U.S., that's other countries within the Middle East, that's Saudi Arabia, that's Bahrain,
Starting point is 00:59:31 that's UAE, that's even Qatar, who has pretty interlocked, more interlocked business relationships with Iran than a lot of these other countries, does not want, Iran to have nuclear weapons. Yeah, I mean, you know, broadly, every country on earth doesn't want any new country to get a nuclear weapon other than themselves that they don't have.
Starting point is 00:59:53 Nobody wants anyone else to have a nuclear weapon because it just increases the threat and the problem. And all nuclear powers want nobody else to have them. Everyone that doesn't have one wants only them to get it. And then no one else, that's where we're at. And there's no country that has nuclear weapons has ever been invaded, right? like directly like you know that's kind of the thing is like once once you get to that point you're now at the level of deterrence of you know it's the same reason that we aren't well at least all the reason
Starting point is 01:00:20 that america hasn't like pushed into russia directly because it's like you can't poke the bear too much but now there's a lot of bears all over the fucking world right like the incident they get it like your options are massively limited right and i think you know the recent thing with with ukraine is a reason why it's become urgent for countries like iran to push towards it because Ukraine had nukes, then gave them up as part of a strategic security peace deal that they were agreed to with all these sides, that nobody honored after they gave up the nukes and then Russia invaded them. So they wish they'd kept their nukes because they would have lessons to be invaded.
Starting point is 01:00:58 And other countries are learning that lesson, that the words don't matter as much as just having the nuke. And that's why there's been a push for it from a lot of different countries that didn't have it before. It's not a good thing. It's all kind of scary and bad, but like, This is why. There's a why for everything and that's why we get to where we're at.
Starting point is 01:01:14 So in the position that... Don't worry, guys. I've got a wacky segment later. We're going to get wacky after this. So in the position that Israel's in right now, they see this as the prime opportunity for a lot of the reasons that you laid out to finally take action.
Starting point is 01:01:30 There won't be retaliation from the other proxy groups in the region. They have at least a tacit, not I wouldn't say support because other countries in the region have spoken out against their instigation of violence or their attack on Iran. But they have more of a relationship with the other countries in the Middle East than they used to. And a lot of those other countries don't really want Iran's sphere of influence to be significant either.
Starting point is 01:02:02 These other places like Saudi Arabia, places like Bahrain, places like the UAE. and Syria has basically fallen or the old Syrian regime has fallen. Russia is distracted by the current war that they're caught in. And Iran in a relatively weak spot because of the effective sanctions over so many years, like economically a bad spot. And also the relatively weak responses and attacks of Iran in 2024. So seeing that Iran was not as powerful as they initially threatened themselves to be, at least that's a viewpoint of a lot of people involved in this conflict.
Starting point is 01:02:44 And then from Israel's perspective, they have a U.S. administration in place that they feel is possible to pressure into the conflict. Like Trump is on better terms with Netanyahu or seems more malleable on that side. So they believe that this is a time where they can convince the U.S. to come and support them in the conflict. And then also within Israel, from my understanding, is unlike in Gaza, as an example, there is more political division within Israel
Starting point is 01:03:17 for how Gaza is being treated and dealt with. How, like, the consequences of that conflict are more divisive to average Israelis, but the support for attacking Iran and protecting itself from Iran, or at least they all view it that way, is massive. The support within Israel
Starting point is 01:03:39 is really, really strong for conflict with Iran specifically. So all of these factors have come together for them to feel like this is the prime time to take advantage of this. And from, if you exist outside of Israel, or if you're one of these, let's say,
Starting point is 01:03:55 neocon, warmonger's who is super pro getting involved in a conflict even at this stage, you're outlook on this might be expanding the U.S.'s sphere of influence. So our resources are getting increasingly strained as time passes. Our debt is ballooning. And a lot of this goes towards being this global police force, right? Which if from a perspective, like benefits the United States, and that's your reason in maintaining this geopolitical position as America, right?
Starting point is 01:04:28 Right. So you, as America, would have a chance to take advantage of all these factors I just laid out, help Israel overturn the regime within Iran, and introduce a hopeful stability to the region that by getting rid of this one massive power that has managed to shake up things for so long, you leave Israel and Saudi Arabia in the region intact as the powers who can effectively manage and police the Middle East, because Iran is no longer a factor. And then you get to spread, take your resources out of the Middle East and start stockpiling and securing Southeast Asia and China in the in the future conflicts that are seen to be in Asia. This is the geopolitical argument that I have found online for why it matters to the
Starting point is 01:05:22 United States so much to stop Iran. It's not just boiling down to whether or not they have a nuclear deterrent or nuclear weapon. It's this being stretched in, finally allowing other powers that are allies to successfully control this region, getting a lot of the resources out of the region on your own that you can then spread to the other conflicts and fronts in the world that you want to handle. And I thought this was, this is a very interesting, it's weird because it makes me feel like I really am looking at the game of life in the world as a game of life. risk.
Starting point is 01:06:00 Right. It is this incredible movement of human beings and countries as pawns in order to accomplish a goal, which is maybe that's what all geopolitical decisions are. But that was the most like convincing argument I could find of like if you really care about maintaining the longevity of the U.S. sphere of influence, this is your reason to get involved in this conflict. It's like you're one time to overthrow this power and bring balance to your approach
Starting point is 01:06:31 like elsewhere, elsewhere in the world. Yeah, it's tough. I have read that take in general. And you know, you could say that the dream outcome for someone who has that line of thought is that there's regime, there's an uprising in Iran because the leadership is now weak or they're being bombed, and there's a new democratic government,
Starting point is 01:06:52 and they're friendly, in a way that Syria sort of is coming right now, after Assad with the West in Israel and Saudi Arabia. And then suddenly Iran's brought into the fold. And now you have this strategic choke point over China where at any point, like if they go crazy or attack Taiwan, you can cut off the Strait of Hormuz and cut off their oil. You cut off the oil that's going out to China.
Starting point is 01:07:14 So like that, that's the dream scenario. But, you know, as we talked about with Iraq and all his examples, it's like, it never works out in the dream scenario. It almost never works out in the dream scenario. and almost certainly that you just build this deep, deep resentment because of your meddling,
Starting point is 01:07:27 because of your involvement, because of your bonds. That's a piece I can't get over is like, it's one thing if this is like an unprompted. Yeah, if it did it themselves. Every one of these countries, like, okay, after a century
Starting point is 01:07:36 of Western countries, it's fucking their shit up. They want to get revenge and we can't let them get revenge. It's like, yeah, I mean, you know, I don't want them to nuke anybody, but fuck, man, I don't feel like we have the moral authority
Starting point is 01:07:47 here at all, you know? Yeah, that's what's stuff about it. It's a hard time imagining that the answer is, let's dig ourselves out of this hole. Like, let's keep fucking it up, and this time it'll work out. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:08:00 That's, I think that's a hard sell because I think that's the question that you have to answer at the end of all of that explanation. This is wild. I think you're listening to three people, three normal people, try to parse this situation
Starting point is 01:08:14 as best as possible. I, like, I don't know what's gonna happen. Our president is firmly in the camp of maybe I will, maybe I will. It's as unfirm as you can get. And one thing I wanted to throw on the end of this before we move on is I watched a few videos and about Tehran specifically
Starting point is 01:08:35 and just people visiting and being tourists. Because I think something, a vision of the Middle East and the people in the Middle East that we are often sold is the version that we saw during these wars, which is like dusty, desolate, not very developed.
Starting point is 01:08:53 And I think it is easy, especially when we talk about numbers to not think about the human consequence of things. And I was watching these videos of people, you know, exploring Tehran, experiencing the culture, meeting people. And I was surprised by, not necessarily by how modern it was,
Starting point is 01:09:12 because a lot of it was modern, but how many women were walking around without, like any head wear. And it's like if you want to wear that, wear it. If you don't want to wear it, that's what I see. It's like it should be your choice
Starting point is 01:09:25 to be able to do it. And this is, I think from the version of events that we were told, like this isn't to absolve the regime. This is just like, this is, it's more just the enforcement of it.
Starting point is 01:09:36 Yeah, my understanding is the regime is just getting weaker and more resisted against, especially in major populations in the city. They're just not caring as much about the authority they have to crack down on this stuff,
Starting point is 01:09:47 now that they've softened their stance. And I think it's just important to remember that your version of how you see these places in your head might not be accurate. And also all of the people that live in these places are just regular human people trying to get by who don't set the sanctions and don't develop the nukes and don't talk about invading. Like it's, uh, I don't know, man. But dude, you say that. It's, man, Trump tweeted like, Tehran better evacuate tonight or something like that. I want to get the exact words right. Maybe you look it up, Perry, but, you know, the idea that a city of nine plus million or whatever can
Starting point is 01:10:26 evacuate, like, is going to, it is absurd. So that, that, that, that, that was bananas for a president that tweet. You, it's just, it's not a feasible thing. It's not, it's not possible. You cannot do that. It's not, um, it didn't follow up with anything. There's no point. There's no follow. Yeah. Mass chaos and confusion and fear. It's like implying you're going to bomb Toronto rubble or something. And there's millions of people in there. And then also, you know, the idea that absolves you, like I told him to evacuate. It's just crazy.
Starting point is 01:10:55 It's not, not a, I think, I think that about wraps it up. I think you guys are listening to this and figuring it out just like we are. And, you know, this changes every day right now. So, I hope people stay safe. And I hope we do not jump into this. But that being said, a couple other things
Starting point is 01:11:16 we wanted to talk about. Well, there are some people jumping into it. Oh, I get it. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I was almost wanted to skip this because, like, all right, more military news. I'll go real quick. Really fast. We'll go real quick and then maybe we go to the other slightly more lighthearted tech AI thing.
Starting point is 01:11:31 But a quick one, which is kind of interesting, is there are some tech executives joining the Army. So basically the Army is creating a new, like, special reservation or reservist, yeah, reservist unit called Detachment 301, which is a funny, like, web server meme. But anyway, so it's like two execs from OpenAI, and now the Palantir CEO and the meta-CTO. The worst blunt rotation. So they're joining the special, you know, reservist unit of the Army. So they are officially like part of the Army once they're sworn in, which I believe happened on Friday. And that means they're going to serve about 120 hours a year. So it's like a couple weeks a year.
Starting point is 01:12:11 So it's not their full-time thing. But the idea is they're basically coming in as advisors, experts to help the military modernize. It's like the Army Chief of Staff is like, we need to go faster, and that's exactly what we're doing here. So they're going to be like teaching people, helping them acquire tech and all this stuff. Oh. You know that like StarCraft is really big in South Korea, right?
Starting point is 01:12:32 Yeah. And you know that every South Korean boy is required to join the military for two years. Yeah. So there's a player named Slayer's Boxer who's like super famous, like super megastar StarCraft guy. He gets drafted in the military because he has to go. But he's so famous that he convinces the military
Starting point is 01:12:47 to set up the Air Force Ace Starcraft team that he officially gets to serve in. His time is just competing in StarCraft tournaments under the Air Force banner. He's like the, like even K-pop stars didn't get that, but he got that. Wow. And it reminds me kind of of that
Starting point is 01:13:03 where it's like this, this military partnership where they can serve in the military without actually being in the front line. Yeah, so it's, they're not going to play StarCraft, but they're not going to do it that much work. It's more symbolic, but Perry, you pull this up back there.
Starting point is 01:13:17 So Wall Street Journal article about this if you're interested. I think what is more interesting is just a quick takeaway from these guys joining the army, right? Again, largely symbolic. The main thing, though, I think that this is illustrative of, is that the military of America is trying to modernize and move past their current system. And so with the army guy, he's explicitly saying, like, we are trying to modernize the military, do faster stuff. There was also an article I read on TechCrunch about how the, I believe, CTO of the Navy has been pushing for start. to be able to work with the Navy faster.
Starting point is 01:13:50 And basically he's like, look, in the past, there's been this bureaucratic mess to work with the military. If you're a company, it's like you can start a bid or a project. And then there's this massive, massive hurdle you have to get through to start working with the U.S. military. Right. He wants to stop that. And now he's like, you know, reducing the red tape and making it a lot easier.
Starting point is 01:14:07 I'd love if this was like a, it's just a contract that gets them all on like a Monday board. They're all in Trello. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And so he is really explicitly talking in a way where it's like we're humble and we're listening more than before. Instead of specifying, hey, we'd like this problem solved in a way we've always had it. Instead, it's we have a problem.
Starting point is 01:14:32 Who wants to solve it? How will you solve it? The CTO of the Navy is basically saying we have been really slow in the past. We want to make it easier for people to work with the military and not just have like the same systems we've always done. There was this thesis written by the CTO of Pallinger, who is now joined the army. Very pro-military kind of vives. But he talked about the history of defense contractors, and he shows this how basically since the Cold War ended,
Starting point is 01:14:56 there's this interesting graph showing how what used to be something like 90 companies was completely consolidated into these five. Jesus. Dude, something about getting mad at the military industrial complex consolidating because of capitalism, because of that playing out, because of, is insane to me. Like, coming out, it's like, we need more industrial competition in the military. It's like, maybe you do in like an economic sense, but I just think this is really funny.
Starting point is 01:15:30 Wait, why? Yeah, that's the point I'm making is I think it's actually a very good thing. So let me finish the point. So there's five of these companies now that constitute the majority of the military spending. And as we've talked about, and I'm sure most people are aware, there is enormous weight. an inefficiency with these defense contractors. They just go to the government. They're like, hey, we're going to charge you $15,000 for a soap dispenser and $10 million for this jet.
Starting point is 01:15:54 Okay. They do cost. Yeah. And the government's like, sure, they do cost plus, which is basically the government will pay whatever it cost to make it plus 15% or whatever. So it incentivizes these companies to do things. To take forever. As slow and as expensive as possible. So you have these incredibly slow, inefficient companies that we pay for as taxpayers.
Starting point is 01:16:13 It's fucking ridiculous. And basically over the last three-ish decades, they have just entrenched themselves in this position where they just get tons and tons and tons of government money coming in, paying them, and then there's no accountability for them to do a better job.
Starting point is 01:16:27 And no competition. There's only five of them, right? So you can't be like, are who's going to give me the best deal on this tank? Because like, they just, they work with each other to split up the few things they work on. And you can't go anywhere else
Starting point is 01:16:38 as the government. My dad has worked in the military and he has been in charge of on really small scale like cost procurement. You often have one or two options for a thing and they can charge you whatever the hell they want. And you don't have a lot. You can't be like, I'll go to this guy then.
Starting point is 01:16:53 I'll go elsewhere. There's not someone else. The government can't do it themselves and there's not 15 different companies that are actually bidding. The bids are not competitive. And so it leads to at every level the military overpaying for everything.
Starting point is 01:17:06 I mean, you said this. So I do agree with this part. The irony more to me is in a world of like commerce in the United States where so many industries have consolidated further and further and there's more monopolization around. It's funny of all things to start with the military of addressing the problem. It's like we can't get good antitrust action in this country, but the plan or like this effort being put towards this being the starting point is just a little, it's just fun.
Starting point is 01:17:37 That's it, but it's not something that's not, it's not, it's not something that's valuable. And the, I want to clarify here. It's like I'm at war here internally, not a pun, of pragmatist me versus idealist me of I don't want, it's hard for me to stand behind the like further, like further development of things that support the defense industry in America. And that is an ethical problem within itself. But pragmatically, understanding that America's defense, uh, industry and military is not going to disappear overnight. Yes, I would like there to be more competition to help reduce costs in a capacity that is similar to us reducing healthcare costs. Yeah. I would like us to spend less money on the military and like be more fiscally responsible
Starting point is 01:18:26 as a nation. And this is a way of accomplishing that. Yes. I, I, that's like this pragmatism. This does not touch on the ethics of spending all this money on the military. Yeah, but I, I just, you know, personally, I think if you were going to antitrust break up anything, military contractors and healthcare companies would actually be fucking a sick place to start. I would take that action. I don't want me thinking it's funny to come across as I don't want the action to be taken.
Starting point is 01:18:53 We were holding the lemon so I didn't know. Sorry, I wasn't clear. I couldn't understand it. No, so I had the same takeaway looking at this. It's like, so as we move towards this world, I mean, there was an interesting example that he talks about where these companies, a couple of them, most of them don't even make commercial like products anymore.
Starting point is 01:19:09 They don't make things for the civilian in population. And when they've tried to, they've failed badly. Yeah, Boeing's getting worse and worse. Boeing's, like, one of the only ones, and the others have tried things.
Starting point is 01:19:18 And basically, they're so incompetent and expensive and slow as companies that when they try to make things for a market where the customers are actually going to push back and stop buying if the quality sucks, they fail miserably.
Starting point is 01:19:30 And so what the Palatier CTO is basically saying is that you need competition, you need other companies coming in because these five companies have a strangle hole on everything. The military on the other side creates a monopsony. by just agreeing to pay for everything.
Starting point is 01:19:43 And both sides need to be shaken up. Even if you strongly disagree with the ethics of how our military is used, for me, the takeaway is imagining the executives of these, no offense, if your dad's an executive, of these fucking defense contractors. He's not anything.
Starting point is 01:19:56 And I love the idea of new startups coming in and shaking up what those guys have been doing, which is since the last Cold War, this 30 year just gloat and just the gluttony of just taking taxpayer dollars for an inefficient, shitty expensive military. And I would love for this to stop.
Starting point is 01:20:15 And so I think there's a number of indications that that trend is, is speeding up. I think that China is honestly kind of doing that. That's what repeatedly was brought up people talking about this. Is like, Can I steal man? Yeah. I think Boeing is really good at killing whistleblowers.
Starting point is 01:20:32 So if we just tell them that our enemies are whistleblowers. We turn that into a sort of military army division. Yeah, we motivate them by thinking of all of our enemies is whistleblowers. What's doing the military? What the fuck? You guys get in on the Army too. My villain chair is I just went to a beautiful wedding. Probably one of the best I've ever been to.
Starting point is 01:20:50 Presumably funded by one of these companies. Oh, yeah? A little trickle-down economics, if you will. You went to a Northrop Grunman wedding. A wedding between Northrop and Grumman? That's a beautiful gay love. And if they start introducing too much competition, I can't go to any more beautiful weddings.
Starting point is 01:21:06 Yeah, that makes sense. That's true. That's true. So, interesting things happening in the military. Presentation? Presentation? Come on. One last fun thing.
Starting point is 01:21:15 All right. Let's have a little more lighthearted of a note. Yes, please. But unfortunately it is AI again. Oh, wait, wait, hold on. Not the presentation yet. Okay, quick primer. Here's the link.
Starting point is 01:21:26 Disney and Universal are suing Mid-Journey over AI-generated content. So if you haven't heard of Mid-Journey, it's one of the most, if not the most popular image generator for AI. There's a lot of anger and controversy over the AI image generators. Like copyright stuff? Yes. Okay. And basically the argument is like you are, this is copyright infringement.
Starting point is 01:21:46 Specifically with this case. Is that AI generated? No, no. This is, specifically. There's two fucking minions in real life. Disney and Comcast, who owns Universal, teamed up. They're suing Mid Journey.
Starting point is 01:21:59 And they're like, you guys are just straight up creating images of Star Wars, the Simpsons, Shrek, minions. They ask Mid Journey to stop and they aren't stopping. They're seeking $150,000 per infringement. Which is like, it's probably like a trilogy. dollar. Dude, per minions meme. Per AI minions meme. And they said, Mid Journey is the
Starting point is 01:22:18 quintessential copyright freewriter and a bottomless pit of plagiarism. Which I thought was good wording. And so I was actually curious about this. Like, I think there's a number of topics around AI art. But one of them specifically in this case is copyright infringement of having one of these tools make a copyrighted image of whatever. So I wanted to find out,
Starting point is 01:22:36 can it draw Shrek? Okay. Okay. Hell yeah. Okay, so the premise here, if you are an AI company, right, there's an argument around fair use of using all the data to train, but there's no real ability for them to say, yeah, we should be able to make images of SpongeBob or Shrek. That's not allowed. So when you go to Open AI, right, and you say, make me a Shrek movie poster, it might start, and then it says, I couldn't generate that image because the request violates our content policies. Up until recently, you get a little sneaky, okay? And you could just be like, give me a green ogre movie poster who's rounded. and friendly. And that actually worked and he would just, it would just draw Shrek until recently. That doesn't work anymore. Okay. And so I was like, what I want to do is see how hard is it to make this copyright infringing content that they've been talking about. So I said, okay, picture of SpongeBob's square pants. And maybe I'll have to sort of revise it. And it just made SpongeBob straight up. So it does not want to make Shrek. This is an open AI who's not the one being sued. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:23:35 But they're the most prominent. And open AI. That's Chad GBT just made you SpongeBob? Chat GBT. I said, this is the quote. A picture of SpongeBob's square pants just, it just makes it. Our legalism is too slow. I like how in the second panel he might be naked. Yeah, it's true. It's like blurred. It gets to here and then it just changes his torso to something else. Like it's not SpongeBob. It's not us. So I was like, wait, what's going on here? So I said, okay,
Starting point is 01:23:58 SpongeBob and Shrek cheerleading. And then it said, okay, I can't generate that because it violates our content policies. Exactly. So I was like, it's actually only anti-Shrike policy. I asked why. And it was like, thanks for asking. When it comes to generating well-known characters, you know, blah, blah, blah. We have to be careful about how they're portrayed. And that could infringe on our content and copyright policies. It's like, but SpongeBob, what? You just fed me a SpongeBob. So SpongeBob and Green Ogre cheerleading. That also didn't get made. And so then I tried SpongeBob
Starting point is 01:24:29 and Patrick Star cheerleading and it just makes it. So it's like really against Shrek, but not SpongeBob at all. And then I asked it, Star Wars movie poster. and it just makes a Star Wars movie poster. So somehow Open AI has put a whole lot of work into their copyright protection, which is only protecting in Shrek and not Star Wars and it's completely haphazard. Now, oh, and then SpongeBob and Darth Vader cheerleading
Starting point is 01:24:56 did get taken down. So Star Wars is okay on its own, but not mixed with SpongeBob Squarepants, which makes sense. Maybe they're just really about canon. They keep it accurate. You have to keep it in. Like it didn't happen.
Starting point is 01:25:10 Arthur did cheerily with SpongeBob. So it is a genuinely interesting thing if you're an AI company about how strict you want to make your AIs about not generating copyrighted content and the weird ways people get around it. But what about Mid Journey? Okay. Mid Journey is the company that just got sued for this. Picture of SpongeBob SquarePants. It just does it. It doesn't look very accurate. Spongebob has multiple hands over here, but. Oh, he does have multiple hands. Yeah, it's a little weird. He kind of looked like fungal gross. He looks, yeah, he looks more like a freakier. I don't think this would have caught on. This is SpongeBob. This is SpongeBob if he co-starred in Annihilation. Yeah. He goes to the, yeah.
Starting point is 01:25:48 This is the Disney live action remake of SpongeBob 20 years. So it has no qualms about just showing SpongeBob, but it's not as accurate. And I tried to make it look exactly like the real thing. Star Wars movie poster. Mid Journey also just sends it. And it's actually like fairly accurate, although here everybody seems to be the same guy. Everyone is Harrison Ford. Everybody's Harrison Ford.
Starting point is 01:26:08 I like that. I would have watched that version. It would be a better movie. It's like Eddie Murphy film when he plays all the roll. But here's the big one. Shrek movie poster. Does Mid Journey do it?
Starting point is 01:26:19 Yeah, no, they do. They just do it. So it's not quite as accurate. Yeah, so like, yeah, donkey is like a horse kind of vibe over here with three antenna. So interestingly, oh, SpongeBob and Shrek cheerleading,
Starting point is 01:26:32 yeah, that's fine with that. It kind of looks like donkey if he was an ice age. Yeah, like a woolly donkey. The smile that Shrek gives him the right going to haunt my dream. No, it's, to be clear, Mid Journey is terrifying.
Starting point is 01:26:42 And I tried to make it a little more, like, accurate. You can recognize that it's Shrek and it's horrifying at the same time. SpongeBob and Shrek cheerleading, it's fine. And then I wrote, this is the prompt, include 50 different characters
Starting point is 01:26:53 from Star Wars, the Simpsons, Shrek and Minions playing soccer, which is the exact wording in the lawsuit. And it just, it's like a weird amalgamation, but it kind of jams the minions and the Simpsons together while wearing Star Wars costumes. So I thought this is interesting,
Starting point is 01:27:07 going into this lawsuit, of you definitely can make copyrighted image, like just infringing images from these websites, but it's variable and they're trying different ways of getting around it. This is incredible. And I remember thinking this is not that long, maybe a year ago when you'd open a grok
Starting point is 01:27:26 and GROC was just generating Mario smoking weed. Everyone was doing different variations of Mario just with a blunt. And it was all over and I was like, Nintendo is famously litigious. Yeah. And they haven't, as far as far as, as I know, they haven't yet stepped up, but it's like Mario on a beach chugging a beer, Mario, smoking weed, Mario, like, maybe they think it's cool.
Starting point is 01:27:46 Maybe Bimodo's like, it's chill. But I'm surprised because I've seen so many of like picture perfect Mario. Can you still do that? That's a good question. I don't know. I don't know on GROC specifically. I mean, so as you can see, there's a weird balance. All the AIs are getting better at making really good copyright infringement content.
Starting point is 01:28:04 And then they're simultaneously trying to train the AI to understand what that is. is, but it's not that hard to get around it, right? So it's this very strange cat and mouse game. I will say there's basically three, the three biggest cases that I would argue regarding this AI art stuff, which are worth tracking. So one is this one.
Starting point is 01:28:22 This is new, particularly because it's on the output of the AI, rather than the input. Another one is Open AI was sued by New York Times. New York Times said, you are, you took, you stole our articles for training, and not only did you do that, you also, people can basically recreate our articles with chat
Starting point is 01:28:40 TV, therefore it's market replacement. And Open AI has said in response, fair use. We transform this enough, we should be allowed to use it. And then the other big one that's actually happening really soon it's going to end by the end of this month is Getty Images sued Stability AI, which is another AI generating
Starting point is 01:28:56 company basically. And Stability's argument, same thing. They're really saying, like, we transform it. It's an original creation. Plus, they're really funny because they're like, we trained it in America and you're suing us in Britain. So, like, so piss off. The laws don't apply.
Starting point is 01:29:11 Yeah, so then they sued them in America too. But so the, there is a trial right now, which is going to end in two-ish weeks, where this major case that will determine whether a huge AI company that makes AI images can claim fair use and therefore train off of everybody else's data for free. And depending on how this goes in some of the other cases, it's going to affect whether these AI companies will need to actually pay the people who, make all of this stuff, rather than just taking it all and doing it for free. Well, it seems to me like a game of almost infinite impossible whackamol, because you're
Starting point is 01:29:48 talking about suing all these individual smaller AI companies that are infringing, but every other, every model is doing, uh, training on similar data. So it's kind of yes and no. So like a lot of them will train on the same pool of data. But, you know, for example, stability, like they, they made a stable diffusion, which then people use for various models. So I think they're, still be the big players who have the money and the funds to make like a really strong foundational model for images that other companies branch off of. If you sue the underlying company, then you kind of stop a lot of it. It's not super easy to go make one of these things. You do need some serious resources. I can see that. And it kind of reminds me, it's probably not a good analogy, but it does remind me
Starting point is 01:30:28 when I was younger of the huge recording industry lawsuits on piracy. Right, right, right. Napster. Yeah, and they would sue a person. and for every song you downloaded, you need to us $10,000. It's like some 14-year-old girl who downloaded albums is like now in debt for $6 billion.
Starting point is 01:30:45 No, but I mean, it's different because you're, because these companies are the only ones that can make this stuff. So the piracy is more distributed and it can be like off the grid. So I see what you're saying. Like they were able to take down Napster but they couldn't take down piracy. But in this case, you can't do it without the Napster.
Starting point is 01:30:59 They'll still be able. So I see you're right. I'm just saying a bit of a pushback. Like it is sort of consolidating in different areas. but definitely this will always exist to some degree. And basically these cases that are now launching or concluding are going to dictate what the publishers of content choose to do.
Starting point is 01:31:16 So far they aren't suing individual people. Just to wrap the episode on that possible whack-a-mole thing, I tried while you were talking to use Mid-Journey to make Mario smoking a blunt. And Perry, if you could pull that up, I send it to you in show links. And this is the generation it gave me. So we'll see if it really is,
Starting point is 01:31:36 the barrier that can be crossed. It gave me four different styles of incredible. So as far as I know, the copyright violation. Are we opening ourselves to litigation here? Those look fucking awesome. Okay.
Starting point is 01:31:51 I'm not saying, I'm not saying that's ethical, but that top left one, but man, that is, that is awesome. Dude, top right one.
Starting point is 01:31:59 I mean, if that was like a grittier M-rated Mario that comes out, dude, fucking bad. Dude. Man, I'm buying that game on
Starting point is 01:32:06 unfortunately. Yeah, he hops on Yoshi and fucking rides off. Oh, that should be badass, dude. It is, it is, so it's universal and what was the other company?
Starting point is 01:32:15 And Disney. Universal and Disney's pretty powerful. It does feel a little ironic. Oh, yeah. To be like, to be taking legal action against use of AI,
Starting point is 01:32:28 like taking advantage of your intellectual property when you're so, like, negotiated with writers and actors, to be able to use AI to replace them. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:32:39 To be clear, it's a bit of a rules for thee and not for me. Their argument, I mean, if your vibe is like, yeah, you go get them Disney and Comcast,
Starting point is 01:32:48 they're suing to say Open AI, you should pay us. Mid-Journey, you should pay us for the content. They want money for the AIs to be created, which they can then use for Leng,
Starting point is 01:32:58 you know, which they can then re-furposes. This is not some, like, defensive artists. This is so they make more money from the AI company. companies who are doing this stuff. So it's not as,
Starting point is 01:33:08 I think the outcome might be positive. I would, to be clear for the record, I would rather move towards a world where people who make data, if an AI company is going to train off of it, they need to be compensated. And I think that is what it's going to move towards, but these lawsuits are basically the step
Starting point is 01:33:22 to get us there. Guys, insane week. I'm going to hold the limit for this. Are you wrapping it up? I was going to wrap. I have one more thing. I want to sign off. I think we owe it
Starting point is 01:33:32 because I read through this in a few different places. I appreciate the explanations we got. We talked last week about a pretty cool study on cancer treatment. And the idea that exercise is something that we could potentially prescribe through personal trainers and the advantage or the survival rate of certain cancers or diseases in general could be tackled by getting people to exercise more stringently. And I just wanted to correct the story a little bit and what the study had talked about
Starting point is 01:34:02 because a bunch of people brought this up was that I think we had said, that there was a group who didn't take, who were on a treatment of exercise and a group of people that were taking chemo treatment in order to treat the colon cancer that they had. So the circumstances of the study were a little different. Basically, a group of, all of these people
Starting point is 01:34:22 had had colon cancer at some stage, and all of them had gone through chemo treatment to deal with that cancer and had gotten through the cancer. And as part of, like, recovering or leaving the cancer behind, there were two groups of people, one who was told you should try and exercise,
Starting point is 01:34:43 and then one group who was told, hey, exercise, but here's a personal trainer who will keep you accountable and assign you to do it. And the difference is between those two groups of people and whether or not they got the cancer again, which I can't remember the word for it. There's like a word that starts with an R if you get the cancer back.
Starting point is 01:35:03 Remission. No, no, it's not. remission. Anyway, I just wanted to crack that because that came up a bunch and I wanted to mention it on the show. But also, it was a good news episode. If we're going to change the details a little
Starting point is 01:35:17 bit to make it sound better. I'm going to hold a limit and say, if you do jumping jacks, you will cure cancer. They'll go away. It'll go away. And that's what I was saying. And that's financial advice. Guys, fun episode. That's great.
Starting point is 01:35:29 I learned a lot. I really enjoyed talking. Yeah. Yeah. I just presentations. Yeah. Do you think they'll send me to Iran? God willing.
Starting point is 01:35:41 I mean, we're kind of past our youth. You know, they need a young face in the room. They're not drafting me. All right, thank you guys for watching. But everybody.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.