Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Big 10 SQUAD - Will Indiana DEFEAT Miami in the National Championship?

Episode Date: January 15, 2026

Will Indiana secure a historic third straight Big Ten national championship, or can Miami pull off an upset at home? The panel breaks down the surprising Indiana vs. Miami title matchup, spotlighting Fernando Mendoza’s efficiency, Miami’s home-field advantage, and the impact of dynamic stars like Elijah Surratt. The crew debates why traditional powerhouses like Oregon, USC, and UCLA are chasing the Hoosiers, and what it will take for Miami—led by Carson Beck—to topple Indiana’s disciplined defense.West Coast transfer portal winners and the “James Madison model” are in the spotlight, with UCLA’s aggressive rebuild and USC’s strategic portal moves scrutinized. Insights on Dante Moore’s development, key prop bets from FanDuel, and bold predictions for the Big Ten’s hottest teams set the stage for an unmissable showdown. Can UCLA or USC reclaim national prominence, or will Indiana’s blue-collar approach keep them on top? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Will Indiana deliver the Big Ten of third straight national championship? Who's winning in the Transfer Portal, specifically out west? We're discussing that on today's Locked-on Big Ten Squad. You're talking ball with the Big Ten Squad, sponsored by game time. From USC to Ohio State, from Michigan to Oregon, from Nebraska to Washington, it's the local experts of the Locked-on Podcast Network, bringing you scoops, breakdowns, and the most comprehensive preview of the upcoming Big Ten weekend. No her feelings and thin skin allowed.

Squad up, you're part of the Big Ten Squad. Happy Thursday. Everybody, welcome to this week's Lockdown Big Ten Squad. A three-man panel of elite West Coast programs, if I've ever seen it. I'm Spencer McLaughlin. You're a host, Zach Anderson, Yoxheimer of Lockdown, UCLA, Mark Culkin of Lockdown, USC. That's it.

That's the squad for the audio listeners. That's who we're rolling with this week. We'll talk all the things, National Championship. tip my dive into some interesting prop bet ideas, according to our friends at Fandul, of course. So, Yoxheimer, I'll start with you, the big game on Monday, Indiana, Miami. I don't know if there was a single person in the country, including in Bloomington, that would have predicted this national championship matchup. Did you?

No. The only thing that I can parallel is I've always dreamed of UCLA being in Miami's shoes the championship game in their home stadium, you know? But it would have in LA, it probably be priced out like it is now, like how crazy it is. But that's the only thing that I think gives Miami a chance. And it's in their home stadium. I just wonder how much red are they going to see instead of orange and green. Yeah.

You know, there's actually an interesting comparison for UCLA here because the Bruins have been down for a little while and envisioning them at the top of the conference. Well, that's difficult to conceive. Mark is repulsed by the idea of UCLA being at the top of the conference. But, Zach, wouldn't UCLA going 11 and one next year and then winning the Big Ten in 2027? That has an Indiana level of probability, right? Which is to say it can't be zero. I mean, you can compare both Indiana and Miami to UCLA right now.

UCLA is taking the Indiana model of the James Madison coach and UCLA's chancellor. was Miami's former president who kind of got the fundraising up and got Miami football a little bit back to where it is. Obviously, a lot more factors there. But UCLA support from the top, former Miami president, James Madison model like Indiana, UCLA's new coach, Bob Chesney. So they're stealing from both programs. And hopefully that just supercharges this rebuild of a program identity in less than five years because it's got to take one to two. Mark, you heard it here first from Zach UCLA National Champions in 2027. How you you feeling about that i've never i've never heard that in my lifetime so that's funny um look i

think ucla is trending in the right direction i i don't know what is the actual question right now am i supposed to be giving props in indiana or am i supposed to be glossing over ucla no let's uh let's let's let's start with you duncan on on ucLA lead into the rivalry for this three-man squad let's go let's go Yes, this is an old school packed world show. Indeed it is. Look, I think UCLA is definitely trending in the right direction. I like their, and I've talked to Zach about this. I like the coaching hire.

I don't think the president hire makes a big difference, but I am starting to see them doing the right thing, you know, as far as players are bringing in through the transfer portal, assistant coaches that are being part of the staff, huge fan of Coach Sooto. make sure you pronounce that last name correctly because he will correct you if you don't. Sooto. Sooto, yes.

Sooto. Boom. He actually corrected one of U.S. associate athletic directors to make sure. And it was done in public. And I thought it was hysterical. But yeah, I think UCLA has a chance to get to six wins,

seven wins next year. Look, they're just not meant to win a national championship. Even when all the, all the stuff. Indiana wasn't. Indiana was, and here they are. UCLA's been much better than Indiana has been a story.

All of the stars were aligned, and Bobo Toledo was your head coach, and you had that rocking offense and everything. You had to go to Miami, and we all know what happened there. Sometimes things just aren't meant to be. I would love for UCLA to be relevant again in Los Angeles, because when USC and UCLA are relevant, it will elevate the rest of the Big Ten conference. And right now, as far as Indiana, I've seen plenty of championship to fall in my lifetime, especially at USC. That Indiana team looks every bit apart.

I will not be surprised if they blow Miami out of the war. I won't be either. And I've got some up close and personal experience with playing Indiana hasn't gone particularly well. You know, Mark, I think you and I actually have. have something in common right now, whether it's fun. National expectations. Well, it is kind of where I was going like a little bit. You think about the brands of Oregon and USC and you compare it to Indiana.

Mark, isn't there a sense in Los Angeles? Like I think there kind of is in Eugene at least to, to an extent where you're looking and going, what the hell had we get passed by the Hoosiers? You know, we've been at this for so long. so many things at a high level. Where the hell did Indiana come? Indiana? I mean, for good to sake. Look, I deal with so many USC fans that love to pick up the goalposts

or move it as far as around as they can to make themselves feel better about the direction of USC's program is going. Well, you know, Indiana, you know, they brought in, you know, half their team from James Madison. They're the oldest team in college football. They're all, you know, they're all Brigham Young-aged players. there's always these excuses. Look, you just have to give credit what credit is due.

Kurt Signetti came in, brought a philosophy, brought his two-star players, these no-named guys that nobody else wanted, kept them together, they play discipline football, and they do it really, really well. You cannot say, you know what, that's a problem with that program. Well, guess what? That program has taken the blue-collar approach, and now they're starting to get some of their billionaire guys involved, and they're going to be able to build upon that.

So, yes, UCLA, yes, USC, yes, Phil Knight University, we need to get our ish together because we're getting passed up by the Indiana's in the Texas. Some of us were in the playoff semifinal, at the very least. Just what, you're still second place. I think technically it'd be a battle for third

if they played Ole Miss. Get it right, Mark, get it right. This is what I'm talking about moving the goalpost. first person to lose, you're still the first person to lose. If you ain't first, you're last. So as far as I'm concerned, you're in the same spot as I am, partners. Thank you, Zach. I don't know that that's the case. One of us is won a Big Ten championship in football.

The other one. You ain't first. Hey, I've seen embarrassment in the Rose Bowl. Not as bad as Oregon, though, recently last couple years. No, no, no, no. Oh, well, you're talking about the other Rose Bowl. I thought you're talking about this year. I was like, no, Alabama played in the Rose,

and then I was like, oh, yeah, right. That was another thing that happened. We're going to dive more into the game. Can Miami actually went? Look, I've seen crazier things happen before. First, this episode brought to you by our friends over a Fanduil. The college football playoff is here. Fandual is giving all customers even more ways to get in on the action every single game day of the playoffs.

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Zach, you have seen Indiana deliver a beat down to your team, a time or two in the last couple of years. How do you think Miami does the opposite of that? By destroying Miami? Okay, no, I'm going to backtrack, walk it back, roll it, reel it, reel it back in. How does Miami not only not get blown out, but win the game? Because I don't think you're blowing out Indiana. Miami is in their home stadium, whether they have most of the fans, other big name non-Indiana Miami fans in there.

Who knows? Miami was supposed to be in this game in the preseason, right? They were expected to be good. They've been expected to be good the last couple years between Cam Ward, Carson Beck, and they're a little bit better this year. The thing is they just snuck in, rightfully so, I thought, to be in the playoff. And the big thing is they got a control possession. And I think they just have to outscore Indiana.

I know that the Hoosiers are a little ground and pound. They can be physical. They can just dominate. Put up 50 points, 38 points. Mendoza is the Heisman that doesn't have to be a superstar. That's how good Indiana is. So for Miami, they need Beck to play above his head in this game. He has to earn NFL scouts to salivate over him prior to the draft.

Other than that, it just seems like you're punching up. if you're Miami. Mendoza, my favorite stat of the playoffs. More touchdowns than incompletions. Mark, what do you? Like, what the hell even is that? It's a crazy stat. I mean, look, Zach, you touch on the biggest point here.

Indiana does not make mistakes. They don't beat themselves. When they fumble ball, they fumble it forward, and then an offensive lineman recovers at downfield. That's going to be the difference in the game. It really is. Miami Carson Beck is a mistake waiting to happen. And it's just going to be a matter of time before Indiana pounces.

Look, yes, the hurricanes are playing at home. They're going to have the home field advantage. They're going to have a large crowd. When you're a good football team, and Miami's a good football team, but they need to play like Boise State did against, what was it, Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl that year. You need to pull out stuff. Otherwise, you don't have.

the discipline you don't have you don't have you don't have the camaraderie i think that indiana has and i think that locker room is a huge huge bonus compared to everybody else in the country uh zach do you remember on that fiesta bowl who the uh play by play announcer was oh i'm trying to think it was the one tom brendaman tom brendaman okay on the fourth and 18 delivered one of my favorite calls of all time. And I'm sure at that in that moment, he thought it would be his most iconic broadcasting moment of all time. It wasn't.

But it was like three other plays after that, that were epic. There were. Yeah, there's the hook. There's the pick six. Yeah, not at all. Mark got it. Mark, Mark picked up on it. And I'm sure some folks out there did as well.

But yeah, there was the late interception by Boise. the fourth and 18 hook and ladder. There was the wildcat throw to the backup tight end in the corner of the end zone from a running back. And then there was a statue of Liberty. Is that what it's going to take in addition to Carson Beck playing well for Miami to get this done? I mean, I don't know if it's going to take three epic plays of all time. I mean, UCLA picked off Fernando Mendoza. I mean, let's be rare when they were the hottest team in the country.

Oregon had a true freshman get a pick six against them. where we're at within Indiana. UCLA went to Bloomington to do it. That's way way different. Way different. But I mean, yes, Miami, they just have to avoid four Carson Beck interceptions. Didn't you have a game like that against Louisville earlier this year? They got to play up to their speed, up to their snuff. And just as Mark said, they have to pull a couple of things out. I don't know if they need five hook and ladders, a statute of liberty, reverse pass on fourth down. They don't need all those. They need one of those to work. And one Mendoza, mistake. I think they need a Mendoza mistake. And then, which can't happen, just very unlikely.

It is very unlikely all in Tony's hands. I guess is what Miami has to turn and do. As often as possible. Yeah. You put him in open space. Now you have a weapon that Indiana is going to go, oh, oh, what do we do with that? Yeah. Brian Haynes has got his work cut out for him. I trust that guy implicitly right now. By the way, none of the three of us ever. the wisest in the Big Ten Squad realized that I forgot to change the background earlier in this show and I just changed you're talking about the Oregon or you talk about the show rundown. No, I'm talking about the show back. Look, I

still had this background in there. I made one earlier and loaded it and just forgot to click it over. So you know, the first part was still accurate but Ohio State goes down a little bit a little bit of dated data information there. But you know, Ziac, you had, you had an interesting idea. We, we went over to our friends at Fanduel and realized that there are some intriguing propositional bets. I don't know if that's the full full name of prop bets there, but propositional bets for the national championship game. I tell you the one that,

then first of all, Mendoza over 125 passing yards is minus 14. 150, which is epic. That is, that is, that is an epic. I don't even know. Who's taking that? Fernando Mendoza has not thrown for more than 225 yards in the last three games. He hasn't even thrown for more than 225 yards in seven to last eight games. And that's her Heisman winner. I know, so as me as a Raider fan, I'm taking close note of this. I got five on close note. I'm pretty much my franchise quarterback. But Mark's, Mark's putting five. down to net what is that 70 cents like maybe maybe I tell you the one that's the that's the most interesting first touchdown score of the game Elijah Surrott

the go-to guy for the Indiana Hoosiers you've got Omar Cooper you've got Becker a wide receiver they can run the ball well and and by the way Zach to your point about the lack of relative yardage for Mendoza it's because Indiana very quietly plays complimentary football with defense and special teams. Let's say that's what it is. Yeah, that's what it is in all three phases. They just, they, they just roll, they just roll everybody, but who do you think will be the first touchdown score in the game? Either team. That take Mendoza rushing touchdown. Hmm. Yeah. You I would literally just go. Oh, I got to like that. Yeah. I kind of,

let's see. Hold on, hold on. There is. I believe, according to Fandole, you can get that at plus 1,600. I got 10 on it. I tell you what. Mendoza has six rushing touchdowns. He hasn't had one since Purdue. Oh, man. That would be the kind of thing Signetti would whip out in a big game like this.

Second down and goal at the three. Little fake, maybe speed option. I was thinking fake jet sweep quarterback counter. Mm, mm, boy. If that one comes to fruition, that's going to be it and runs it right between the tackles, right up the gut. That would be an all-time call from the two of you. Let's log our final predictions here

before we talk about the portal wrap today's show. Zach, Indiana, Miami, Hoosier's favored by eight and a half, Corden Fandle, who you got? That feels like a big number in a road game and a championship game. Yeah, it is. I still think UCLA.

I think the UCLA is going to surprise everybody and show up and play in the game. Bad memories in Miami though. But I would say Indiana, it's going to get this feels to me like 2019, that LSU Clemson game, where Clemson gets out early. I thought that was your score prediction for a second. And they get out early by like a couple of scores. And then how LSU pulled away late, that's how Indiana. They might have a couple nerves.

It might look fun early. Indiana wins by two scores late. Let's go 3421, Indiana. Mark. 40 to 17, Indiana. In fact, I think Miami scores first, takes the lead, gets that stadium rocking all jacked up, and then all of a sudden, Indiana just kind of settles in,

plays Indiana football, and before you know it, you know, the guys on the Miami bench is saying, can we just start up the bus so we can leave? Yeah. They don't do it far. Kind of like the National Championship game last year. Notre Dame scored first. They had that great drive.

They just three, four yards in a cloud of dust. They're in the end zone. And then you looked up and it was like 31 to 7. You went, oh, well, that's a, that's better team. Yeah, I'm going Indiana here. The over-under is set at 47.5. I like that Indiana defense a lot. I'm going to roll kind of with what Mark is looking at.

I'm going 34 to 13. I think that that could be a... Yeah, I think that could... I think it'd be Indiana big time. When we get back, we're going to do a little portal buzzing. What is the latest? Dante Moore's back in Oregon's obviously winning it all next year. I heard you chuckle, Mark.

I heard you chuckle. I heard you chuckle. You dare doubt. that an offseason Natty will ever translate to a real Natty. What data have you to support that when talking about Oregon? Let me say something about Dante Moore, Spencer. I was a guest on another show. Oh, yeah.

Did you want to talk about Dante Moore? It's going great. I don't know. We're guessing on another podcast. And they asked me, what are you going to talk about? What's going to be the difference between Indiana and Oregon? And I was like, well, from his UCLA days, Dante Moore has to make a mistake. And literally 20 minutes later, he threw a pick six because I was on a live stream.

I was like, oh. And then there's the fun ball. I was like, oh, how did I know? Yeah. Dante Moore has still to go. Old Dante can. But that's okay. That was the old Dante. We're going to get the new Dante who, by the way, old Dante was a pretty darn good football player. New Dante is going to be an even better. Allegory?

Football player. Because Pinotola is going to help level him up. What is that? Because Dylan Rayola is going to push him. Oh, yeah. Big time. Huge quarterback battle in Eugene. Get ready for the clickbaitiest headline of all times.

on Locked-on Docks quarterback battle. Dylan Rayola will push. Don't see he's doing no such thing. Dante Moore starting so anyway, Oregon might go after Jordan Seton, Colorado offensive tackle. I think they've had about 47 defensive linemen enter the portal that are going to at least in some capacity make your way down to your guys's state in California with Tosh LaPoybaugh up north in Berkeley so they they need some work there. But overall it's been not. It's been eventful. Oregon's got a bunch of key returners. It's been pretty good.

Zach, how's the Transport Portal been for the Bruins? UCLA 1 to 40. Looking like the Indiana model, taking the James Madison guys, able to get to hear Wes, which was a big Bruin fan favorite to land of the portal to significantly upgrade a D-line that was Last in Sacks,

last in tackles for loss in the FBS. So the Bruins do have some edge-resher. In the FBS? Yeah. Oh, goodness. I thought you were going to say the Big Ten, and I was ready for a... Oh, they're bad.

I was ready to make a wise crack about, yeah, and there's 18 teams in this conference. UCLA went last at 136? No, there's a reason UCLA couldn't do anything on defense is because there's no pressure and quarterbacks at all day to throw. They could run the ball. Nothing worked because they could run right up the middle, like Utah, like Nebraska.

That was the tried and true formula. You didn't have to do much. Penn State vehemently disagrees. They would tell you that that defense had some players on it, underrated gritty guys. Well, I mean, Drew Allen kind of made a little different there. You have to remember,

UCLA scored first and the on-site kick. They're running from ahead in the beginning of that one. So UCLA's 40 transfers address the secondary. Every position in need, UCLA got a guy who's proven, a James Madison guy that knows the system, a guy who didn't play and a guy who had some production on a playoff caliber team, whether it was an Oklahoma like Sammy Olmosigo

or just offensively. They got guys like Florida's Aidan Mizeel with some speed. they dressed every little position with true a sense of savvy. So it's not like they're just throwing dust in the wind. Oh, let's see what happens. They're actually going after something targeted. And I think they'll get a lot better returns this year in the portal than they did in years past. Mark, how has the portal been for USC?

USC spent all their money on their high school recruiting class. So they kind of did a little bit of the blue light specials at Kmart. They found some nice pieces. Don't get me wrong. But I think myself included a lot of USC. fans were kind of hoping, anticipating that USC was just going to continue to go all in in the transfer portal, find those key pieces, the best players available, spend the money necessary to fill a hole at linebacker or two, fill a hole at, you know, maybe defensive

line. It didn't go that way. So instead, you filled a hole, you found a really good complimentary wide receiver in Terrell Anderson from North Carolina State. would I have preferred a Cam Coleman or Nick Marsh, probably, but I'm not upset with Terrell Anderson. They went and got a run-stopping interior defense of linemen, Alex Van Sumeran from Michigan State.

I think he is a better version of what USC had a couple of years ago in Gavin Meyer, when they pulled him from Wisconsin. They brought Devin Bryant in, a linebacker from the University of Washington. Again, not a top-tier guy, but somebody who knows how to play against the run. He's a local product. So USC did what they had to do, not what they probably should have done. They did just enough to get by. So if you're looking to pass a test, look, Mom, I brought home a C-plus on my quiz. Everybody was probably looking for that A grade. But they're going with the youth movement. They are going with a youth movement in 2026. They're returning their entire

offensive line, which is a plus. They're returning Jaden Maiavah, a quarterback. Some see that as a positive. You're returning waymond at running back to new kinds at wide receiver. Defense of line, young, but really, really good. Hopefully the defense coordinator can bring it all together. So to answer your question, USC did just enough in the transfer portal to say, we did what we needed to do. I was ready to pump my fist for C's get degrees. Seas get degrees.

Seas get degrees. Maybe not at UCLA because, you know, they have really. really high standards down there. By the way, Zach, I don't know if you know this. UCLA was the only school that I applied to for college that outright denied me. Wow. Yeah.

Yeah. So with that said, I hope as a result, your football program lives in misery for the next 30 years. Anyway, Zach Anderson, Yoxheimer, Lockdown, UCLA, Mark Colkin, Lockdown, USC. I'm Spencer McLaughrum from from Lockdown all over the place. That has been your three-man, Big Ten squad. We'll see you next time.

Until then, hope you all have a wonderful rest of your day.