Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - CRISIS? Can Iowa Hawkeyes RECOVER After Oregon Defeat Or Is The Playoff CHASE Over For Good?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Trent Kahn and Todd Bromel camp with you today. Locked on Hawkeyes. What is going on with this squad? The two-point conversions continue to be one of the most befuddling things in Iowa football. Todd and I will break it down and get ready for the big matchup against USC. How the Hawkeyes pull the upset. You are Locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked-on podcast.

Starting point is 00:00:30 Network, your team every day. Welcome in. I'm Trent Condon. That's Todd Bromblecamp, and this is the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. We are your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast talking all things. Hawkeyes. Todd and I combined cover the Hawkeyes for over 50 years. You can hear me currently on the Iowa Sports Radio Network each weekday from noon to two and stations across the state, including Des Moines, Sioux City, Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, and the Quad Cities. Today's episode of Lockdown Hawkeyes is brought to you by Fandul. new customers can bet just $5.

Starting point is 00:01:01 And if your bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the app today. Todd, good to see you once again, off and running as we dwindle our way through the season, the hopes of a playoff bid, though not completely off the board, not looking very likely. Of course, Iowa has to run the table and get a whole bunch of help. A loss to Oregon would have, should have, and boy, it feels like a spot that we've been a couple of different times this year. all three losses, all close games, tied in one of them, lead in the fourth quarter against Oregon and against Indiana, more of the same. And just the Hawkeyes, not being able to get over the hump. How many times have we seen this over the years with Kirk Ferrence?

Starting point is 00:01:44 All the games that were in the loss column were in the, you know, you could put them in the win column just as easily if one score flips a different direction. And, you know, this team is kind of right where I thought they would be at this point in the season. And the Oregon game, the final score was pretty close to what I predicted. And yet it sort of doesn't feel like either one of them were accurate to me from a field standpoint. You know, one of the things of the Oregon game, and you go back, two-point conversion, we'll get to that a little bit later as they go. Now, O for 600, Tim Lester, missed seven consecutive on that front, is the crazy part about it. All right, they kind of drug them into the mud, right, played the Iowa style, got them to play the kind of game that Iowa needed to pull off the upset, but giving up 261 yards rushing.

Starting point is 00:02:33 And they did it a lot of times, you know, the veteran defense alignment played a ton. Herkett and Llewellyn were out there a whole bunch on the field. Aaron Graves almost went to distance at defensive line. They didn't use as much depth, yet those veterans struggled against the run. The safeties that have been tackling so well, that was not the case. And you got to give credit, obviously, to Oregon. That's a really talented team and some talented running backs to go along with it. But that was the thing that was maybe the most confounding to me of this football game and the way it played out.

Starting point is 00:03:02 Just I was inability to really do anything to slow down that run game. Well, I think you and I talked about it last week. You had the stats on the yards after contact. And I wouldn't push the panic button on this if it weren't, you know, Oregon, we knew they were going to run the football. If this were another Big Ten football team or a middle of the pack Big Ten football team that did that to Iowa, huge, huge red flag. It's obviously a little disappointing that they couldn't slow them down. They did seem to take a step back, regret. wrestle a little bit as far as wrapping guys up and tackling. And you can't have those breakdowns when you're playing a team like Oregon. But totally disappointing. I get that from a fan's perspective. But keeping it in perspective, it's not like Oregon just did this to Iowa. They've been doing this to pretty much everybody they played this season. And I think the Iowa game was a really good test for them. I know a lot of people thought Iowa was going to be in a position to win that game. And they were for all intents and purposes. But that Oregon team,

Starting point is 00:04:05 is a very good ground attack team. And you mentioned sort of being dragged down into the mud and playing Iowa style of football. To me, that's one of the more concerning things over the last couple years is that other teams have played Iowa's style of football and figured out ways to beat Kirk Ferrens. Matt Campbell is a great example of, you know,

Starting point is 00:04:27 taking what Iowa's strengths are and flipping it around on them. So whether Oregon falls into that category or not, I guess remains to be seen. But that, to me, is the most concerning thing here is that Iowa's getting beaten playing Iowa football. You know, one thing that people talk about the 12 consecutive losses now to rank components. And to me, it's just, it's a little bit hollow because there were, for such a long time, they were getting blown out in those games, right? And you go back to 22, 23, they were getting not even close, not competitive.

Starting point is 00:05:01 And obviously, that's a whole lot different now. I just don't think you can put them kind of into the. the same equation. But what are the concerns I had when Iowa was getting blown out and losing all those rank games is not just getting blown out. But what you said there, Todd, is I think teams started to realize, and I think they still understand with Iowa's lack of a passing game, with Iowa's inability, we don't have to take chances. I mean, you look at the downturn in forced turnovers here these last three seasons for Iowa football. That is something that is completely different. Phil Parker is still the same guy, right? He's still an absolute wizard on the defensive side.

Starting point is 00:05:33 And I think the reason for that is teams have finally started to realize we don't have to take chances. We don't have to do crazy things. We don't have to take shots down the field very often because we know that the Iowa offense is not going to be able to answer. So I guess maybe to unlock things. And as we look forward not just to Saturday against USC, but going forward with this program is that is that next step of the evolution. And getting back to, yes, the offense is better and not just because you want a better offense and a better passing game. but also to get teams to go back into play the style of football that leads to Iowa being able to force those turnovers. Yeah, I didn't want to interrupt you there, but it's a great point that you made about if you go back and look at Iowa's defense and how many opportunistic turnovers they generate when teams do take shots downfield and boom, there's a defensive back with a pick.

Starting point is 00:06:27 If you don't take those chances, Iowa can't capitalize on those mistakes. And once you take those interceptions and flip in the field position around off the table, kind of neutralizes what Iowa does. So the less aggressive an opponent gets, the more it hurts Iowa defensively, I think. And as you said, teams have figured out, don't take chances against Iowa because when you do take chances, they can hurt you. So by playing a little bit more conservatively, keeping the ball on the ground, not turning the ball over. That certainly has not helped Iowa this year. Final thing as we take a peek back to Oregon, we'll get ready for the USC matchup on

Starting point is 00:07:10 Saturday, is what we found out on Tuesday, Mark Grinowski, sitting around talking, doing the standard thing. You've been a part of those scrums many times, Todd, throughout the years. And then it comes up two-point conversions. Iowa loses by two points. Iowa had a two-point conversion attempt that at minimum, a field goal would have tied in, sent the game into overtime. Mark Grinowski says that they don't practice. this two-point conversions. I had to read it again and then read it a third time. I'd have read the quote a dozen times at this point.

Starting point is 00:07:42 In today's day and age, where we know the overtime rules and the way that it is, Iowa, something that they've been terrible at, six consecutive misses under Leicester, seven consecutive overall, four of their last 21 under Kirk Ferrence. I can't wrap my mind around it, Todd, any explanation at all. No, unless there's something getting lost in translation, but in this era, especially in this current era, where analytics have played such a huge role. And Tim Lester had his fair share of that as an analyst in Green Bay. I mean, we've talked about his role as an analyst and how that was going to change things for Iowa. The thing that I don't understand is you, you know, you're kicking a 58-yard field goal at certain times, which is, you know,

Starting point is 00:08:32 hunting points looking for points those two point conversions are a big deal in this era of football and to say that you're not practicing them it's not like you can just take your red zone package and boil it down to when you're on the two-yard line there i think you probably should be practicing at least a couple looks there's a i'm going to chalk that up to hopefully something got lost in translation but that was a very very very disconcerting thing to hear from the quarterback of a Big Ten football team. Yeah, one that is difficult to wrap your mind around, had a great play that scored the touchdown, and not just that they've missed it straight under Lester, they've gone shotgun

Starting point is 00:09:16 every time, they've thrown the football every time, an RPO look, different kind of things that just, well just run some crossing routes and hope. And the Iowa offense, the way they're built, doesn't make a whole lot of sense. You are a running football team. You have a quarterback who is mobile and you're two yards away from picking up the two points. And that's the thing that I think the fans have every right to be frustrated about is all the pass attempts that haven't worked. You've got a quarterback that can move. How many rushing touchdowns does he have this year?

Starting point is 00:09:49 Something's got to, they got to figure something out there for those two point conversions or they're going to continue to come back and be bit in the rear end in these close games. They're going to be chasing points this weekend, high-powered USC. They go on the road. We'll talk about the matchup against the Trojans. What's it going to take for Iowa to pull the upset and to cure the curse that is the West Coast and Kurt Ferrensen the regular season. We'll do that as we continue, locked on Hawkeyes. Well, the NBA is back and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandual, the official sports betting partner of the NBA.

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Starting point is 00:11:20 our everyday listeners, as we are your daily Hawkeye podcast. All right, Todd, time to turn the page. Difficult to do. And I mentioned a couple of times this week, The first concern, the old adage, don't let Oregon beat you twice. Listening to the players on Tuesday, even listening to Kirk a little bit, I think this Oregon loss is going to linger. The good news is Kirk Ferrence, I think this is one of his greatest strengths, not his greatest. Now, back against the wall, not letting a team beat you twice, just rallying the troops.

Starting point is 00:11:53 This is when Kirk's at his best, but boy, this road trip to USC, this is going to be a bear. Yeah, you know, at the beginning of the year, I think this is a game that a lot of people like you and I had circled as one where they could stub their toes and a lot of people were looking going, ah, they're not ranked. You know, they're not a great team. Well, here they are ranked ahead of the Hawkeyes this year. So it does make that game a little bit more troublesome. And we'll get into the picks with this game later on. But I agree with you. It's one of the things that Kirk Ferrence has really done over the years is the ability to stress that 24-hour rule. I mean, most coaches have it. But Iowa really does a good job of driving.

Starting point is 00:12:31 home that you can't, you know, can't put the toothpaste back in the tube. There's no worry, no, nothing good comes from worrying about the fact that you lost the game, you turn the page and focus on what's ahead. And what's ahead is a trip out west. And like you said, I think every Hawkeye fan knows Iowa's history when they go west. I'm trying to remember the last regular season win. They got the holiday bull win, what, six, seven years ago now, Mir Smith, Marseille, went off in that game, and one of the best games offensively of the Brian Farrant's

Starting point is 00:13:05 regime. The best. Yeah. That one in Ohio State, right? I mean, those are the two that you put up there. They're kind of, and certainly at the top of the list. I want to say maybe it was 87 against Arizona. That's the only one. I was there for Arizona when they played them in the 2000.

Starting point is 00:13:20 Same thing with Arizona State in 2004, two different kind of games, but two ones ending loss. Of course, last year against UCLA, I know there's not been a tent of opportunities. I did wonder this week, you know, if there was. going to change anything up, head out there a day early, do anything different, doesn't sound like that's the case, more than anything. One of the players mentioned on Tuesday that coach mentioned to them, that Ferrence mentioned that, you know, just didn't think they were quite ready, ready to go. They put in the work throughout the course of the week, but for whatever

Starting point is 00:13:47 reason, they just weren't ready against UCLA, excuse me, a year ago. So the West Coast thing, it's odd. It's not a huge sample size. We're kind of sample size people, but it's still definitely a talking point here. And remember, after the Arizona State and then Arizona games, I believe Kirk said after one of those, maybe it was during an offseason press conference, he was never going to go back. He was never going to schedule one now with the new Big Ten he has to. Yeah. And then you had idiots like me when UCLA and USC joined the Big Ten thinking this is the red flag. This is Kirk Ferrence. He's going to retire. There's no way he's going to want to coach in a Big Ten for those four West Coast teams. I like the fact he did point out. It is a small sample size, but it's still enough to be.

Starting point is 00:14:29 relatively concerning, especially when you throw in most of those Rose Bowl performances over the years. And as you mentioned, that Holiday Bowl, sort of the outlier, because they didn't just win that game. They totally dominated USC in that game. Kickoff time, you know, you go back two hours because you're on Pacific time. So it's going to be a relatively normal time, I would think, for them. You know, that Rose Bowl trip, I was under the weather for that Rose Bowl trip, But the two-hour difference does affect your body clock a little bit. And hopefully it doesn't affect Iowa all that much here. But it's a storyline, especially for those in the media.

Starting point is 00:15:08 And it's one that Iowa would really like to not have looming every time that it goes west of the Rockies. But in order to keep people like us from talking about it, they got to win on Saturday. And it's a USC team that is built in a way that is concerning. from Mackay Lemon, who is the best wide receiver for my money, the side of Ohio State. The guy is absolutely outstanding, the way that they play, the style, and it's not just the passing game. They run the ball as well.

Starting point is 00:15:37 I mentioned a couple of times this week every day, or he might be sick of me. The game that sticks out, though, to me is what they did against Michigan. Michigan built like Iowa, wants to play physical, wants to play bully ball, and USC out physical them. I mean, they stood up to the bully, and they punched them right back in the mouth. They average over 200 yards rushing per game.

Starting point is 00:15:55 And they've done that with a myriad of different running backs as they've had a little bit of an airbag themselves out there this season. They're down to a walk-on right now who's been tremendous of this season. So it's not just a West Coast trip. It's the team. It's the way that they're built. And then you throw on the fact that we might have a monsoon here. That might be another angle. But just this USC team, that that's another part about this.

Starting point is 00:16:17 The way that they play doesn't feel like it's a great matchup for Iowa. no and i you know without being inside the football complex this is just speculation on my part but i'm guessing that that michigan video has been uh sliced diced and viewed in every way possible because like you said they are very stylistically similar to iowa and the way that they play football and whatever michigan tried to do against usc obviously didn't work so i was going to be looking for any clues that it can take away from that game to avoid making the same mistakes the Wolverines did. So, yes, you want to run the football.

Starting point is 00:16:55 USC's decent against the run this year and you think you're going to have some success, not just in terms of yardage, but you want to see, you know, averaging Moulton, five and a half, six yards of carry. You know, you want to have one of those big performances. Is this the breakout game for Kamari Moulton? I think that's what a lot of people are hoping for. Rip off that big one. You know, he's been so close so many times throughout the course of the year.

Starting point is 00:17:16 I think you're going to get that. But also, does this have to be a game where, Grinowski's going to have to do even more. Yeah, he outpassed Dante Moore in the game. Is this going to be a game? Now, depending on the weather conditions, but let's just say it's fine. You know, it's rainy. It's wet, whatever.

Starting point is 00:17:32 But is this a game where we have to see Grinowski hit another big play? You know, throw for 160 plus yards, maybe up to 200 yards. Something hasn't happened in a long time now for an Iowa quarterback. Does it feel like you, if I was going to pull off this upset, they're going to need even more out of the passing game? Yeah, I agree with you. I think a big play. in the passing game, you know, I got criticized doing a post-game show after the Oregon game for saying that I thought Grinowski did well numbers-wise because I wasn't expecting them to

Starting point is 00:18:00 have to throw the ball as much as they did. And I think, you know, if he had 150 yards on Saturday, but one of them was a 60-yard play that went for a big game, I would chalk that up as probably putting Iowa in a position to be successful. And the same goes for the running game. You know, if Moulton can or one of the other running backs can break off. a big game and pick up a huge chunk of yards or maybe take it all the way to the house. That's the type of thing that can flip a game like the one the Hawks are staring at on Saturday. Looking at the numbers, now these are not available in the state of Iowa, but over at Fian duel. The over-under for Mark Grinowski passing yards, 140 and a half.

Starting point is 00:18:41 I think it's going to have to go north of that unless the weather is a big factor. So sat in the rain and the cold and enjoyed every single second of it, well, until the last three, seconds of the game at Kiddick Stadium. Unfortunately, not going to be able to make the trip. I got a bunch of buddies that are heading out there. I got semi-final duty for the Class 5A semifinals on radio Friday night and would have been a quick turnaround to get to LA by Saturday morning. However, I'll be watching. You'll be watching. And the rain matchup, I think in a way, yeah, it can help, you know, slow them down just a little bit. But here's another part. It's not just the rain. I was played in rain. USC's played in rain a couple of times this

Starting point is 00:19:19 year. It's the grass field. Have we been overlooking that this week, Todd? Go back to the Iowa State game. We see Caden Weegean have one of his worst games. He fumbles. He's sliding around. He's slipping and sliding. He didn't have the right cleats. You mentioned the Rose Bowl. Remember the cleat conversation after that one. Iowa not having Iowa has struggled. They go back to Michigan State last year, not a very good Michigan State team. They looked awful in that football game. Does Iowa have the great shoes? I mean, is this a Greg Morris game? We've got to have these guys with the right cleats? I, you know, they've got a grass practice field.

Starting point is 00:19:51 They're going to tell you that they work on it all week long, but playing on grass, practicing on grass in Iowa when it's 40 degrees outside, it's not going to be the exact conditions. You know, when I first started doing this 25 years ago, plus, you know, at least half, if not more, the teams were playing on grass. And that was the normal thing to practice on. Again, maybe we're looking small sample sizes, but, it's something that I always keep in the back of my mind when they go to Jack Trice Stadium or

Starting point is 00:20:19 the small handful of places that still do have natural grass. It's something to keep an eye on, like you mentioned with Drew Stevens, who's had an up and down season. Is he going to be affected more on grass than kicking on turf? I think I still have a chunk of the Rose Bowl turf somewhere that I picked up off the ground on my way back to the press box because that place was just littered with divvits. It looked like me on the golf course. It was an ugly one. More ways than one. It was another one. You were in the press box. I was in the stands and those $19

Starting point is 00:20:55 course lights. Oh, they were going down quickly as that game continued at 28-0-0. We put down a bunch of those and don't remember much of the second half of that one. Send the bill to Christian McCaffrey. Yes, exactly. He can pay it now. Yeah, he can afford it, no doubt. All right, Todd. So we'll get into our prediction for the football game. Iowa USC, what we think's going to happen, how this thing's going to play out, plus our favorite

Starting point is 00:21:18 plays from college football and the Big Ten. Picks presented by Fandul, that's next as we continue on the lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. Back with you one final time. Locked on Hawkeyes, Trent Conn, Todd Bromblecamp. As we break things down, Iowa, USC coming up 2.30 kickoff on this one, the Hawkeyes, a six and a half point underdog currently at Fandul odds subject to change mentioned some of those props not available in the state of Iowa mentioned Grinowski passing at 140 a couple others for you just to put in the back of your mind for you Todd I know you'll get a kick out of this anytime touchdown score Grinowski minus 161 um even at that price you're laying some juice on that one that's taking

Starting point is 00:22:05 some big action already a couple others are rushing total kebari molten 74 and a half I got my eye on That one, Gradosky at 29 and a half. And the receiving yards, this one cracks me up every single time. Iowa's leading receiver in the prop market is Jacob Gill at 20 and a half. Those are some props for Fran Duel that you have coming up this weekend if you're outside of the state of Iowa. Iowa, six and a half. I said, you mentioned this a little bit earlier, Todd. This was a game I had in the L column before the season.

Starting point is 00:22:36 I said this was their most difficult game. And I know, yes, they played Penn State, who was a preseason top three team. Some people's number one. Oregon, obviously coming to town. Because of, though, the road environment, the way that USC is built, I had this one as the most difficult game on the Iowa schedule, and I still think it ends in an L. I have USC winning this one, 27, 16.

Starting point is 00:22:58 Iowa just not able to generate enough offense to keep up. That rain, the grass, those things that we talked about earlier concern me. So I got USC with the win and the cover. Yeah, I'm going 2613 on that. this one. I've seen some other books that even have it at seven now. So yeah, six and a half at Fandul is probably one of your best numbers on this game. But I agree with you. There's a question mark about the weather. The track record going west, you know, everybody's going up with a way to justify no matter what side of this game that they're on. But stylistically, bad matchup for the

Starting point is 00:23:35 Hawkeyes. And this is either going to go down as one of the greatest coaching performance by Kirk Ferrence where they are able to turn the page on Oregon and they go shock everybody and head in West and winning that game or it's going to play out exactly the way that you and I think it's going to play out. And I know which I know which way I would put my money on at this point. No doubt. Well, in the Big Ten this week, we got a Friday night game again. Intriguing one in a way, Oregon, Minnesota, seeing the gophers, see if they can keep up offensively against the Ducks. Oregon, of course, played back to back now, rain games going back to their home game against Wisconsin and that one. Big number, though.

Starting point is 00:24:12 25 and a half. I guess I would lean Minnesota feels like a big number in that one. My favorite bet, I think, though, of the weekend in the Big Ten, I like Michigan State, getting north of a touchdown against Penn State. You know, the Knits put so much into that game last week. Look like maybe that was the dead cat bounce out of them as they continue 0 and 6. Somebody's going to get a win in the Big 10 in this one as both teams come in with 0 and 6 records. And Mahalovic, the backup quarterback who has come in because of the. Aiden Child's just being terrible this season.

Starting point is 00:24:45 I've liked what he saw. He threw for over 300 yards against Minnesota a couple of weeks back here. So, Sparty, that's my best bet in the Big Ten getting seven and a half. I'm not seeing a ton on the Big Ten card looking at. You know, you got Indiana as a 28.5 point favorite at home against Wisconsin. Did Wisconsin leave it all on the field in that upset against Washington? Or are they going to be able to, you know, move on? from that. I'm sure they've got a hangover from that game one way or another. Are they going to

Starting point is 00:25:17 be able to show up in back-to-back weeks? I kind of like over 44 and a half there in that game. And depending on the weather, I could see Indiana scoring some points in that one, still a big fan of what Kurt Signetti has been doing this year. And then, you know, the over 40 and a half, I'm looking at Michigan and Northwestern there, Michigan, maybe they, stub their toe on the road a little bit. I could see that being a low scoring game. So I'd lean 40 and a half under. I'd have to do a little bit more research on that one.

Starting point is 00:25:51 And that one's at Wrigley Field. We remember two years ago, yeah, just the conditions are going to be awful. They're going to be terrible. And I could see Michigan, you know, just gotten out a 17 to 9 win, getting out of there, you know, something ugly like that. That's kind of how I see that one. And I'm with you. I definitely like the under because of the field conditions coupled with playing style

Starting point is 00:26:10 of both of those teams. My favorite bet of the week on some of the big national games, I love Texas this week, and I have a ticket from before the year of them to miss the college football playoff. Obviously, a loss here would help out a lot as that be the third loss of the year for the Longhorns. Still, Texas, that offensive line has improved immensely. This is not your big brother's Georgia team. They have their own woes. And Arch feels like he's starting to figure things out a little bit. I'll grab the six and a half in Athens, and I got the Longhorns is my best bet nationally.

Starting point is 00:26:38 There you go. I'll ride with you on. that one. No Iowa State game to look at this week. So yeah, I just nothing is standing out to me at this point. And I think last week serves as a really good reminder that as much as we think we know what's going on, we don't know what's going on because I was right about the scoring in the Wisconsin-Washington game. I just wasn't right about who was going to wind up winning it. So that's the best part about college football. You'd agree with me on that week in a week out you never truly know what's going to happen. Iowa could go out west and stun everybody

Starting point is 00:27:17 except the most diehard Hawkeye fans and win that game this weekend. And that's why we tune in every week. The hope. And let's get a little carnish go along with it. Maybe there's a path and we can create a little bit more excitement for Iowa football going into the final couple of games of the regular season. He's Todd Bromelcamp. I'm Trent Conn and this is the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast, your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast. Todd, as always, appreciate the time. We'll talk to you next week. All right, looking forward to it.

Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - CRISIS? Can Iowa Hawkeyes RECOVER After Oregon Defeat Or Is The Playoff CHASE Over For Good?

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