Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - CRISIS? Sellout Carver Crowd SILENCED as Purdue CRUSHES Iowa Hawkeyes—What’s NEXT?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Saturday was a gut punch. I would didn't just lose. They got run out of the gym. Purdue exposed everything. Defense, depth, even toughness. The big question is, what exactly is this Hawkeye team? And where do they go from here? You are Locked on Hawkeyes.

Starting point is 00:00:23 Your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Hey, welcome in. I'm Trent Condon, and this is the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Lockdown Hawkeyes your first listen every day, your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast. I've been covering the Hawkeyes for over 20 years on the radio here in the state of Iowa, including currently on the Iowa Sports Radio Network with stations in Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Quad Cities, Sioux City, and our flagship station, 106.3 KX&O.

Starting point is 00:00:56 You can catch me each weekday from noon to two. Today's episode of Lockdown Hawkeyes is brought to my Mazda. We put the same drive into every detail. wins define the moment, putting in the work that defines you. Stay tuned for highlights in this week's moving the game forward. There's more to a Mazda because there's more to you. Well, spring feels like it is upon us here in the state of Iowa. We're going to get an update on the spring sports baseball underway after their opening weekend

Starting point is 00:01:25 and softball a couple of weeks in. We'll get you an update on that. The Hawkeye women make their way over to Nebraska to face the Huskers, a Husker team not playing great, but you remember, That was a tussle and Carver what's going to take to get a victory in that one. But we begin today with what's set up to be a special day evening in Carver Hawkeye Arena on Valentine's Day as Iowa welcomed in Purdue. A Purdue team that though Iowa lost to earlier this season had played pretty well in that game. Definitely had some positive reinforcement that you thought, you know what, just maybe, maybe this could be the upset that I was looking for.

Starting point is 00:02:02 They were just a slight underdog in the game. One and a half, two point favorite, depending on where you're shopping. I think the closing line ended up, well, in fact, let me fight it here. What was the closing line? Two and a half, Purdue's favorite in this one. A sold out Carver Hawkeye Arena crowd. Here we go.

Starting point is 00:02:19 And they laid an egg. Just an absolutely pitiful performance in this one. Frustrations all over the place from Hawkeye fans. And you can certainly understand it. This alone is not a big deal. A single loss, home to Purdue is nothing to freak out about. It's nothing to lose your mind about.

Starting point is 00:02:38 Let's say that the sky is falling and this team's not even going to make the NCAA tournament. However, with the loss earlier in the week, Wednesday against Maryland, it ratches it up a level. Look, if I came into this one with the seven game winning street, got that win against Maryland, this would be a completely different conversation. Even if the game played out in the exact same fashion, even if Iowa got run out of the gym, absolutely dominated and really never had a chance. There were a couple of sequence that we can look at. I mean, you start the ball game off,

Starting point is 00:03:09 and you get a great look inside, making the extra pass, doing Ben McCollum basketball type of things, right? Making that great pass, getting from a good shot to a great shot, and Kyle Combs misses it in the lane. There were so many of those moments throughout. On the other end of the floor, though, you allow Purdue to score 78 points, 1.35 points per possession, That's elite.

Starting point is 00:03:33 And I would just did not have an answer. And it wasn't that one singular guy went off. It wasn't that just you had a player went off for 30 and you throw your hands up and say, what are you going to do? This was up and down the roster, up and down what Purdue had. They were better seemingly at every single spot. He started the point guard spot. Once again, it was the matchup of potential All-Americans.

Starting point is 00:03:54 An all-timer in Braden Smith, who finishes with just five points in the game, but had six rebounds on the defensive end, seven overall. and 12 assists against just five turnovers. Inside, Trey Kaufman Wren, Oscar Club, both those guys, those big bodies certainly caused Iowa trouble, and that was the concern about this one. And if we remember back to that game against Purdue the first time, remember, I was shot lights out in that game from behind the arc.

Starting point is 00:04:23 And that was the difference of this one, because certainly wasn't the case at Carver. That was a game over in West Lafayette where he had kale Combs, Not known as a great score and certainly not a great outside shooter. He's okay. He had four or five from three. They had a couple of bounces that just bounced in their way in that one. And that was still a game they lost by seven.

Starting point is 00:04:43 Had the lead in the second half, deep into the second half, couldn't hold on. But they also did it by shooting 12 or 25 from behind the three point arc, 48%. And that's not what this Iowa team is. That's not what they've done throughout the course of the season is basically shoot 50% not just from one guy, Bennett Sturts, but from a multitude. to guys back to Saturday. And through and through, they were just better every single time. And there's so much disappointment in the way that this played out because you did have

Starting point is 00:05:13 that sellout crowd. It did feel like after the sixth game winning streak, after the positive vibes that were there, hey, this is going to be a tournament team. We're talking about you pick up the right victories here in the back third of the conference schedule. We could be talking about a team that is competing for a top four, five, six seed in the NCAA tournament. And now those conversations definitely have changed.

Starting point is 00:05:34 We'll talk a little bit later on about Iowa's tournament resume and what that looks like now. And now what's still in front of this team. 8 and 6 in the Big 10, 18 and 7 overall for the Hawkeyes. The sky's not falling. Bennett starts solid again. Just one assist in the game. And I think that says a lot also about this one. I like to time some of the things we saw from Fool Garris, but he handled the ball well.

Starting point is 00:05:58 Overall, we got to see a little Trevor in Iraq. How about that, though, too? And as we were playing in the second half of this game, our first half of the game, and you see a lineup that tried out there that had Eurek out there, Brendan Hassan was on the floor. It was a five-man lineup that had never played together this season. We talk about just trying to find the right fit and Coach McCollum trying anything that he could do. We saw Bennett Sturt sit out leading into a TV timeout.

Starting point is 00:06:24 Okay, that made sense. And then he wasn't there right away. And then, of course, questions what's going on? Is he injured? He's hurt? He wasn't. Just got a little bit of arrest. not good enough to beat Purdue.

Starting point is 00:06:34 And Purdue looked like a team that has a 20-year veteran head coach in Matt Painter, a guy that'll likely be a Hall of Famer when it's all said and done what he's done, finally getting Purdue back to a Final Four for the first time in some 40 years. That's what you get out of Matt Painter.

Starting point is 00:06:49 The teams run a lot of great stuff. And I will look lost defensively. And that might be the more concerning angle. Yeah, they put up 57, they didn't shoot it well. Okay, that's going to happen. Couldn't finish around the rim. That was definitely a big component too. And against a big team, you certainly understand it.

Starting point is 00:07:05 But the defense, this is not a one game problem. And looking through the numbers and something for everyday listeners, you definitely know because we talked about this last week, is you go through and there could have been some fools gold during that six-game win streak because outside of the Indiana game, the beginning game of the winning streak for the Hawkeyes, that was the only game I thought they played really well against Rutgers, a bad Rutgers team at home.

Starting point is 00:07:31 They slogged their way through that one. The USC game, he had Cam Woods going off, guy that scored 26 points all year. He scored 33, and they couldn't stop him going downhill. The Oregon game, look, they're outmatch. With no bittle, the ducks had nothing there. Okay, I'll give credit to him on that one. Washington, they played as awful as they could defensively for the first half

Starting point is 00:07:53 as the Huskies were just hitting everything. Great comeback in the second half. Northwestern, we know, was not at being a beauty. and then these last two games. But take a look at these numbers defensively from Iowa, starting with the game against Oregon. Oregon scored over 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency in that game. And Oregon team without Biddle, it's not very good.

Starting point is 00:08:15 Washington 117 against Northwestern. And then these last two, the two worst defensive performances of the season have come their last two times out against Maryland and against Purdue. This is a team going the wrong way on the defensive end of the floor. This is a team for whatever reason, it is not clicking on that side of it. And when that happens, and if Iowa can't play defense at the same level that they're accustomed to, with the limited possessions that they play, they're going to be in deep trouble. They'll have an opportunity for a bounceback.

Starting point is 00:08:46 And it'd be a nice win against Nebraska coming up on home on Tuesday night. In a way, it's not a must win. I mean, must wins. We've got to get a little deeper into the schedule. and I was still done enough to put hay in the barn that it doesn't become a must win. But a building that's not going to be full. It's certainly not going to be in the environment that they had a possibility against Purdue. Plenty of frustrations with this one.

Starting point is 00:09:10 We're going to talk a little bit more about that resume. What it looks like, what they still need to do to carve a path into the NCAA tournament. And hopefully, stay out of the 8-9 game in the first round meeting, who you play in the round of 32. As we know, who's sitting there. yeah, a number one scene. And it doesn't feel like that would go very well, certainly for this Hawkeye team.

Starting point is 00:09:30 We'll talk about that as we continue plus some women's hoops talk and spring sports. We roll through. This is your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast, Locked on Hawkeyes. Workplace chaos. Deadline stacking up, inbox overflowing, and the one position you have to fill still sitting open.

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Starting point is 00:11:03 Sponsored jobs. Trentana back with you once again on the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for being with us and making Lockheyes your first listen every day. If you're watching us on YouTube, make sure you hit that subscribe button. If you're listening on the audio side, five-star review, all that helps us get in front of more Hawkeye fans. So what does this all mean? With the resume, where they sit, and as we talk about often, the gap between what

Starting point is 00:11:30 they've actually done the results-based metrics for Iowa basketball in comparison to what the analytics say, what the numbers, nerves like to punch in and put out. That's what we get with this squad. So as we look at Iowa currently, mentioned the 8 and 6 record in the Big 10, 18 and 7 overall. Result-based metrics. They're 43rd in KPI. Strength of record, pretty good, 32, wins above bubble. This is a data point. This is a metric that is being used more and more by the NCAA tournament committee. This is something that is incredibly important when it comes to it.

Starting point is 00:12:07 And you look recently at the NCAA tournament. That matches up very closely to the kind of seed that you're going to get in the NCAA tournament. Meaning, Iowa, when you just look strictly at wins above bubble, they're in that 8-9 game. That's where they are. The predictive metrics better, but that gap is shrinking because I was going back in the predictive markets. Ken Pomeroy has the Hawkeyes ranked 25th, Bart Torvik, 27th, BPI, another one of those predictive metrics. They have the Hawkeyes at 37, certainly the worst amongst that group. Iowa 2 and 5 against Quad 1.

Starting point is 00:12:44 The victories against Washington, not an NCAA tournament team. And Indiana, a bubble team, though both those games on the road definitely helped that you have, Road wins, still looking for that signature victory, though. Iowa does not have that. Nice to have a couple of Quad 1 wins. That's good. And they're both likely remaining quad one victories throughout the course of the season. Still, that is an important component.

Starting point is 00:13:06 In Quad 2, Iowa is 5 and 1. The one loss game on that road game out at Minnesota. It appears that that's going to be okay and going to stay in there as a quad two loss for them. Not going to fall to a Quad 3 loss now that they have, as we talked about last week, that loss that they had against Maryland. So that's where they sit currently in the metrics and the way that it points out. So what needs to be done? What needs to happen for Iowa?

Starting point is 00:13:33 As you punch through and you look and you look at what is in front of them, these final six games of the year, I think at minimum, they get two victories. They're going to be okay. They're going to still be an NCAA tournament team. Unless, unless caveat, here we go, they go two and four and then lose their first game of the Big Ten tournament and certainly if it's against a bad team. Now, if they get beat by a Rutgers, they get a team like Penn State, something like that, I think they're okay.

Starting point is 00:14:03 The two most winnable games that are remaining are the two in the middle of this six game stretch. Nebraska at home. Then they go to Wisconsin next Sunday before they get Ohio State coming in a week for Wednesday and then at Penn State before finishing with Michigan and at Nebraska. The two in the middle, Ohio State, Penn State, those are the most winnable. games, but what we've seen out of this team, nothing's a sure thing. When you lose to Maryland in the fashion that they did, the inability to stop, to get stops, the inability to stop the ball, there's a lot of things that you look through and you say

Starting point is 00:14:38 things could get ugly. And if things start to get ugly again, and we're talking about yet another three game losing streak with Wisconsin on tap next, you start to get nervous about this squad. I'm not going to sound the alarm bells yet. but the resume still has work to be done. The great news is there are plenty of chances of quality victories. And not just the two Nebraska games as the Huskers, surprisingly, I think to everybody, what they've been able to do, sit at 22 and 3 this year.

Starting point is 00:15:08 Either one of those victories absolutely would be a quality. Even if you take off the jersey on the front, it still says this is a good basketball team. And with Nebraska, of course, never winning an NCAA tournament game ever, I understand it's hard sometimes to wrap our minds around that that would be a quality victory. But yes, beating the Huskers, either one of those games absolutely would be there. You look next to Wisconsin. And what Wisconsin is done this year, you talk about a collection of victory, some of the most eye-opening wins that they have had this season.

Starting point is 00:15:39 They have gone in and beat Michigan, handed the Wolverines. Their only loss of the year did it on the road. When Illinois was playing as well as anybody, not just in the Big Ten, in the country, they went into Champaign and they won that basketball game. What they did Friday night, just absolutely throttling Michigan State. They have a lot of quality, high-level victories this season in the non-conference. They got a couple of decent ones as well, but it's really what they've been able to do during Big Ten play. We would be talking about with that a victory on the road.

Starting point is 00:16:12 That absolutely against this Wisconsin team would be a quality victory. Michigan obviously goes without saying what that would be. mean, what my concern would be is that they do just what I said. They beat Ohio State, they beat Penn State, win a game in the Big Ten against a middling team, and then get beat by somebody good. Speaking of eight, nine games, it also looks like they're pushing for potentially being sitting there and looking like they very well could be on the front where they're going to be playing to the eight, nine game in the Big Ten tournament.

Starting point is 00:16:45 We'll dive into that a little bit more later this week. frustrating. And I understand the frustration. I understand the angst about this team. So what other thing I like to look at one of the analytical websites is the resumes that are similar to this Iowa team and where they are. And when we did this just a week or so back, Iowa had the same resume as many teams that were pretty high in terms of the seed list. Four, five, six, that was kind of the range. Well, that has dropped. And now you look at resumes. that are similar here recently. Look at Marquette last year. Marquette was a seven seed,

Starting point is 00:17:22 very similar resume to this Iowa team. They got a seven seed in the NCAA tournament. Other teams very similar to Iowa, according to the Bart Torvik metrics. On average, the 10 teams with the most similar resumes here over the last 15 years or so, an average seven seed in the NCAA tournament. But there's still work that needs to be done,

Starting point is 00:17:43 and Iowa certainly needs to get a lot figured out who is going to step out outside of Bennett Sturts remains a big question with this team. The Iowa women get ready to face off against Nebraska on Monday morning. That's right. You heard me right. Monday morning for the Iowa women as they go up against the Husker. So 11 a.m. central tip off against them.

Starting point is 00:18:06 We did find out that the Iowa women were number 11 and the overall seed list that the NCAA handed out. So they've been doing this now for about a decade on the men's side. One thing that definitely is interesting is, you know, it's not what we get with the college football playoff week after week after week and what it is. It's a one-time snapshot of where it is. I think it also shows, though, the fans out there, this team, the likelihood of them falling apart and not being a team that hosts in the first and second round. Look, it's going to take a lot for them to fall out of that spot. With two incredibly winnable games on the road against Purdue and Wisconsin, the home game against Illinois.

Starting point is 00:18:45 Illinois, I think at minimum, you win those three games, all three of those games, Iowa is going to be a double-digit favorite. I think they're going to be okay to be a team that is hosting in the first and second round of the NCAA tournament. Nebraska comes in 16 and 9. And a Nebraska team that, as I talked about earlier, has pushed Iowa. Still, they're 0 and 8 against Quad 1 teams. And they have lost four in a row. Lost Ohio State on the road. Oh, nothing wrong with that.

Starting point is 00:19:15 Lost in Michigan. Nothing wrong with that. Now, they got beat up pretty bad at home by Maryland. That was kind of head scratch. Not that they lost to Maryland. It was the fashion. And then they went up to the barn and got throttled there. They are not playing their best basketball of the year. And that is a saving grace. After we see the Iowa women and the losing street, get the win against Washington, had a little bit of time here in this one. I think you're feeling good about this Iowa women's team in comparison to Nebraska. went down to the wire. It was 86.76 was the final the first time. When you're talking about the Huskers, though, it's all about Prince. I mean, you slow her down. You're going to have a great spot of opportunity, obviously, to beat this Nebraska team.

Starting point is 00:19:57 Britt Prince, she's incredible. Great score. An incredible shooter, shooting nearly 50% from the three have to close out really hard on her. But she's also good off the bounce. And that's the thing that makes it incredibly difficult. She's a good distributor. She does a lot. She's a really impactful player. defensively what I was going to do. I'm going to anticipate it's going to be Kyla Fearbach. It's going to get the call against her. But kind of what else is there?

Starting point is 00:20:21 You go back to that game as well. They had a couple of players off the bench, played really well. Fisher played good inside. Get it going again. Taylor McCabe's not going to be out there. The Nebraska alum, and she grew up in Nebraska before making her way to Iowa City. McCabe, as we know, is not going to be out there. Who else is going to step up? And who else is going to be that player that's going to be impactful for the

Starting point is 00:20:43 this Iowa team. Important one. And you get this win against Nebraska, then we're really taking that exhale. You got the little exhale. Okay, you beat Washington. You did it at home. We take a major exhale. And we start to change our conversation with this Iowa women's basketball team. Wrap it up on the other side. We're talking spring sports. Iowa baseball underway. Some good, some bad, some ugly. We'll talk about that. Plus Iowa softball has started off their season. Spring sports. Up next, it's locked on Hawkeyes. This is Mazda's moving the game forward. For those who show there's more to the score than what's on the screen. These are what remind us of what really takes to raise the bar. The extra work off the court, dialing every detail, giving it that extra fire, that grit,

Starting point is 00:21:31 and I never quit. This week's Mazda's moving the game forward is Chit Chat Right. Talked about the victory for them against Washington on Thursday night. Chit Chat, what's the outside shooting. Absolutely incredible. She is. is our moving the game forward. She is that player that is taking that grit and taking it on and off the court and doing that little extra. We put that same passion into every model. Highlights make the real.

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Starting point is 00:23:15 Lockdown Hawkeyes. Thanks for being with us and making Lockdown Hawkeyes, your first listen of the day. So as we take a look through the weekend that was, let's start with Iowa baseball. And it did go very well. Love that it was on MLB TV, was able to see Iowa against Kansas State, their matchup against Air Force. That was good. Iowa, though, game one. Garen got the ball who is the anticipated number one starter. It didn't go very well against the Wildcats. Iowa gets pummeled in that one, 15 to 6. Come back then a day later on Saturday, get the win against Air Force and then on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:23:49 What a weird game. This was 2113, what we've talked about. This Iowa team is probably going to mash, probably going to be able to certainly put up some good numbers this season as it pertains to offensively. The question is both what they're going to do with the pitching rotation and what that's going to look like. But secondly, it's also going to kind of look at, oh, boy, this team, are they going to have enough in the bullpen to keep their heads above water?

Starting point is 00:24:15 that remains a pretty big question, I think, overall for this Iowa baseball team. But good start to the year. Good to see the black and gold out there, certainly, as we get going here for 2026. Over on the softball side, they've been going now here for a couple of weeks. The Iowa softball team, they go out and play a schedule, got beat up by Florida State. On the other side, though, got a couple of victories. They beat Western Kentucky. They beat Army.

Starting point is 00:24:42 They beat Mercer. got to win against Army. So not exactly two wins against Army. Not talking about the who's who of softball. I get that. Still, a program that is going through transition. And what I've heard about the softball team, going to be very similar.

Starting point is 00:24:59 They're going to be able to swing it. They're going to be able to score some runs. The question is, what are they going to be able to do as it pertains to pitching, you know, what they're going to look like there? They lost some high-level talent. And when you have players that are transferring off and playing at Alabama and Arizona and UCLA.

Starting point is 00:25:15 Three of your starters from a year ago that's on the precipice of being an NCAA tournament team. That's a lot to lose in the portal. Brought some players in. We'll get a deeper look, certainly at this team. But always good to keep an eye on that. We'll be doing that more here as we make our way through the spring. Getting you ready for today this morning.

Starting point is 00:25:34 So weird. Did it I know a year ago against Ohio State, this President's Day special against Nebraska. We'll have a review of that one. coming up here later on Monday night into Tuesday morning for you on Lockdown Hawkeyes. Your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast, it is Lockdown Hawkeyes. Thanks for being with this. Make sure you can check it us out, all the social media platforms. We're out there as well.

Starting point is 00:25:54 Just search Lockdown Hawkeyes and we will pop up. And if you never miss an episode of Lockdown Hawkeyes, the Everydayer Club is built for you. Get Locked on Hawkeyes, add free, plus members-only Discord access and more. Go to our website. It is Lockdownhawkeyes. dot supercast.com to join the club. Hope everybody has a great day. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:26:15 Until then, go Hawks.

Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - CRISIS? Sellout Carver Crowd SILENCED as Purdue CRUSHES Iowa Hawkeyes—What’s NEXT?

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