Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Evaluating the best and worst case scenarios for the Iowa football and basketball teams in 2021

Episode Date: May 19, 2021

We have some fun looking at the best-case scenarios and worst-case scenarios for the Iowa football team, men's Iowa basketball team, and women's Iowa basketball team next year.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back, Hawkeye Nation, to a Wednesday morning episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes Podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Sports Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade, and after you finish listening to this show, if you want some more Lockdown content, check out the Lockdown Big Ten podcast because there is simply no better place to get all the news on the Big Ten Conference than with Big Ten Ben Stevens and the Lockdown Big Ten podcast.

Follow the Lockdown Big Ten podcast on the Odyssey app or wherever you get your podcast app. And on today's show, we have a few news notes we want to cover, but we are going to do something kind of fun. We're going to talk about the men and the max. I'm actually, as some of you might know, I'm in grad school now and doing some data analytics courses at the University of Iowa. And a lot of it's been men and max talk, which means I want to talk about the men and max of the Iowa basketball team, the Iowa football team, and the women's Iowa basketball team. I want to talk about what is the best case scenario, what is the worst case scenario for these teams.

We're going to talk about all that in segment one, segment two, and segment three. Before we get into that though, a couple pieces of news and notes. Unfortunately with Iowa falling to Illinois twice this week, they are actually in the first five out by D1 Baseball's bracket projection. They've been firmly in for a while. They have a lot of work to do the next two weeks. I think they really need to win out and expect Maryland to hopefully lose a few games as well. Four-star junior Kyle Filiposki has locked in his visit. He is taking an official to Iowa June 17th to 18th. Iowa is heavily in the

mix for several big time prospects and we're going to cover that on a future episode as well. There was some CJ Frederick news. He met with the media finally and basically spewed a bunch of lies. Drew Tate has officially become a coach at the University of Texas, Martin Skyhawk. So congratulations to Drew Tate, former Iowa great and a guest and friend of the show. He's been on twice before. And then Iowa also extended an offer to Alex Moda, a player out of Marion High School in the state of Iowa. So awesome stuff there. That is the news notes, but let's get into it today. Let's get into our men and max, starting with the Iowa basketball team, the men's Iowa basketball team. When I look at this roster, I think the best this

team could do is a three seed this year in the NCAA tournament. At worst, I think they're an NIT team. And now let me walk through what situations need to occur. And I think it's important to note that there are early bracket projections coming out and Iowa is looking like an 11 seed right right now according to experts I do think they have the potential to be a three seed and again I think the big 10 is going to be slightly weaker than this past year they're not going to have as much of that power I know when you look at a Maryland you look at a Purdue a Michigan and Ohio State they're definitely all ranked in the top 15 but I see issues with each of those teams and opportunities for Iowa to beat them.

When I look at Iowa's schedule, I do see a lot of opportunity for Iowa to have a solid season. Now, here's what needs to happen in the best case scenario. Iowa gets a three seed. First and foremost, Jordan Bohannon needs to stay healthy. He has been injured the last two years. Obviously, he only played 10 games two years ago and went under the knife with hip surgery. He was injured the year previously as well, which two years ago and went under the knife with hip surgery. He was injured the year previously

as well, which is why he ultimately went under the knife. This past year, played a torn labrum in his shoulder. Can he stay healthy? That is going to be huge for Iowa as they need a knockdown shooter playing that C.J. Frederick role coming off of screens and hitting shots

off the pass. That's going to be huge if Jordan Bohannon can stay healthy. Another key piece of this, Keegan Murray needs to play up to his first round pick potential, right? He was mocked to the Los Angeles Lakers in an early 2022 NBA draft. Can he play up to that potential? I think he can. Keegan Murray is going to be a key contributor for the Iowa Hawkeyes. He needs to take that step from being an all-around do-it-yourself, you know, do-it-all-around player, sorry,

jack-of-all-trades player to being a guy who can be a leader of this team and really carry this team. That's going to be huge. Can he make that jump? Philippe Rabracha needs to continue his previous production. He did it at UND against smaller school competition. Can he pick it up against University of school competition. Can he pick it up against University of Iowa competition? Can he pick it up in the Big Ten? He's embracing that

challenge. Can he pick it up though? Patrick McCaffrey needs to intensify on the defensive end of the ball. We talked about it with him when he came on the show. He knew that he needs to pick it up a little bit. When I talked to Bakari Evelyn, Bakari Evelyn also said, you know, sometimes it's a younger player just not being able to do it. Patrick McCaffrey even mentioned the fact that sometimes he gets a little bit tired because he's still working his way into shape. Can he pick it up on the defensive end of the ball? Can he stay in games for 25 to 30 minutes? That is going to be huge for Iowa. Josh Ogundeli, can he play 10 to 15 minutes? We've barely seen him play, but he is going to be a key contributor as Iowa plays some bigger guys like a Travian Williams but he is going to be a key contributor as Iowa plays some

bigger guys like a Travian Williams. You're going to need a guy like Josh Ogundeli to be able to handle a Travian Williams. I think Josh Ogundeli can give Iowa 10 to 15 minutes. If he can, that'll be huge as Phillip Rabacha is going to have his hand full. Keegan Murray playing that four is not your typical four. You would rather have Keegan maybe in a three spot. So, but with Iowa playing a slightly smaller ball game this year, Josh is going to be a huge contributor if he can get 10 to 15 minutes of play and play solid in those games. And then finally, if Iowa is to get a three seed,

Joe Toussaint needs to improve his assist to turnover ratio. The last two years, Jordan Bohannon's assist turnover ratio is 4-1 and 3-1. Connor McCaffrey, 4-1, 3.6-1. Joe Toussaint, 1.5-1 and 1.6-1. He needs to get to that 3.1 spot. That is a 3-1 spot. That is huge for Iowa. That is huge for Joe Toussaint.

One of the issues he's had is playing slightly reckless and out of control and not being able to stay on the court because of it. If he can improve that assist to turnover ratio, and I think that's a big question, but also a big opportunity for him. I think there's a very good chance that can happen, especially with his chemistry with Patrick McCaffrey and Keegan Murray. That will be huge for him and for the Iowa basketball squad as they look to take the next step forward this year.

If they do all of that, I think Iowa can be a three seed. I think they can be ranked within the top 10 to top 15 teams throughout the year. That is my personal opinion. Coming up, though, as far as what is the worst case scenario, I think it's the NIT. I think it's obvious a couple things, right? Joe Toussaint struggles as the lead,

and we need to turn to Aaron Ulis, who I think can be a very solid guard, but we would love to see Joe Toussaint take that next step. Jordan Bohannon gets hurt. We don't know about it, right? That's been an issue a lot. Phillip Abracha, is he going to struggle against top competition? He hasn't had that yet.

He has played on a struggling team at UND and has gotten great numbers, but can he continue to do it against top competition? Josh Ogundeli doesn't grow. We were expecting that. He didn't get a lot of minutes this past year. Can he grow into that role? And then finally, does Iowa regress defensively? I think a lot of people are looking at this team and thinking,

can Iowa grow defensively? That will be huge for this team. They're expecting growth on the defensive end because you expect offensively they're going to decrease. When you lose a Joe Wieskamp, when you lose a Luka Garza, when you lose a C.J. Frederick, that is going to hurt your offense. So you need to pick it up on the defensive end of the ball. If they cannot get better defensively, they will not be a good team this year.

They need to hold themselves in games with strong defense, and I believe they have the potential to, but we have not seen a lot of Fran McCaffrey teams be strong defensively. So that is going to be a big question mark for me going into this year. Best case scenario for the Iowa basketball team, a three seed. And I think a sweet 16 visit in my personal opinion, depending on matchups, worst case and an IT visit. And we're looking to next year without Jordan Bohannon on this team anymore. Coming up, we're going to talk about the Iowa football team. Best case, worst case, an NIT visit, and we're looking to next year without Jordan Bohannon on this team

anymore. Coming up, we're going to talk about the Iowa football team, best case, worst case. The best case is pretty darn good. The worst case could be an ugly season. We're going to talk about that on segment two of the show. Before we get into that, though, I got to tell you about Bilt Bar because Bilt Bar is the best tasting protein bar on the market today. They have so many phenomenal flavors, whether you like fruity stuff, whether you like sweet stuff, they got cherry, they got mint brownie, they got raspberry. And honestly, they have a limited time offer for a amazing built bar. It is the birthday cake with sprinkles built bar. And let me tell you, this built bar is truly amazing. I already ordered three boxes yesterday because it is so darn good. You got to get your hands on it while you can. But if you haven't tried a Built Bar yet and that sounds

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All right, y'all, we are back for segment two of the show and I want to talk about the best and worst case scenarios for the Iowa football team. And I know when we talked about the Iowa basketball team, there was a lot of very obvious first or best case and worst case. And a lot of the best case and worst cases kind of fell in line with each other. But for the Iowa football team, they're going to be different on both sides of the ball or both sides of the best case and worst case. I think the worst case is Iowa goes seven and five.

I think the best case is they go undefeated and they're in a big 10 championship game. Here's how that happens. Okay. Spencer Petras is the key to this. He needs to blossom as a starting quarterback. He's getting training from a quarterback guru. Can he utilize that and take that next step next year and become a better quarterback who can get the ball to his wide receivers consistently and to his tight ends? If he can do that, I think that automatically puts Iowa at least eight wins. Just by Spencer Petras being an above average quarterback. Last year, Iowa won in spite of Spencer Petras. This year, they need to win with Spencer Petras, not in spite of him.

In addition to that, Tyrone Tracy becomes an all Big Ten wide receiver. I've talked about this before. I think Tyrone Tracy is ready to break out. I was actually having a conversation with my best friend, and we were talking about this, and we both agree in talking about Tyrone Tracy that he's kind of a mix of Amir Smith-Marset and Brandon Smith. He doesn't have that straight line speed of Amir Smith-Marset,

but he does have some speed. He doesn't have the ability to go up and get every contested catch like Brandon Smith. He doesn't have that straight line speed of Amir Smith-Marset, but he does have some speed. He doesn't have the ability to go up and get every contested catch like Brandon Smith, but he does have the ability to do that. Where he separates himself is the fact that he is good at other things as well. He is fantastic after the catch and not just straight line like Amir Smith-Marset, but truly after the catch can outrun, can outmaneuver defenders. And I think Tyrone Tracy has the opportunity, if Spencer Petras can get him the ball,

to be an all Big Ten wide receiver this year. Iowa also needs to lead the nation in interceptions. They are set up to do so. They have a phenomenal cornerback group, a secondary group, with all their starters returning. And they have several key additions into that, starting with Xavier Williams. That is going to be huge. And I am very excited to see what Xavier Williams can do in the secondary

and how Phil Parker deploys him. So with that strong secondary, with a very strong and athletic linebacker group, a linebacker group that can not only cover running backs in space, but can also defend the run. I truly think we have three linebackers that could be all Big Ten linebackers. That's not just me hyping this group up. That's how good they can be. Seth Benson, Jack Campbell, and Justin Jacobs.

That is going to be huge. Can Iowa lead the nation in interceptions though? We saw an Indiana football squad last year that I don't really think was that good win a lot of games because they were forcing turnovers. If Iowa can force turnovers, that is going to be huge for the Hawks en route to possibly a 12-0 undefeated season. Again, they need to have a

top 10 defense. That is going to be huge as well. I know that's an obvious here, but Phil Parker has consistently done that. He is replacing a lot of defensive linemen. Can they continue having a top 10 defense? And then finally, Sam Laporta needs to be a slightly more consistent at the catch point. A lot of the time last year, he was getting a lot of balls force fed into him. So not necessarily a fault of his own, but Sam Laporta seems like everything is coming together in year three for the true junior. I think this is his breakout season. So Spencer Petras needs to blossom. We need to see playmakers like Tyrone Tracy and Sam Laporta really break out. And Iowa needs to lead the nation in interceptions. If this happens, Iowa goes 12-0. We've talked about their schedule. I think it's a winnable schedule. They got to get past

the first two games. So what happens though? What would be the worst case scenario for this Iowa football team? I don't see a way where they go worse than 7-5. But how this happens is they start 0-2. They have Indiana and Iowa State, two top 25 teams. Iowa could very easily start 0-2. Getting off to a slow start is going to kill this team's momentum. We saw it happen this past year. They were able to battle back. That was truly impressive. That is the anomaly, not the norm.

When teams go down to an 0-2 hole, they don't typically battle back the way the Iowa Hawkeyes did this past year. Now, if they start 0-2, they have some tough stretches of that schedule where I don't think they can get past. And I think you're going to see them lose a couple other games. Also, what leads them to a 7-5 start? It's going to be because we have a quarterback controversy. It's because Spencer Petras did not blossom the way we thought. Alex Padilla is getting playing time. We're struggling there. Obviously, injuries is always going to be an issue as well.

We've seen injuries derail this team. We've also seen injuries bring this team together. Back in the Drew Tate era, running backs were dropping like flies. When Iowa went to the Orange Bowl, they played two true freshman running backs. One was a walk-on, right? So we've seen running backs drop, but injuries are going to be a huge issue. Also, can defensive tackle be above average? Can defensive tackle honestly just be average?

With this defense and what they're returning, if the defensive tackle is a below average spot, right? If we don't see the growth we need from Noah Shannon, from Y.A. Black, from Logan Lee, Logan Jones, if the defensive tackle is a clear weakness, that is going to severely hurt this team. We're going to see a lot of running attacks going directly up the middle against us and forcing our linebackers to handle that. We're going to see our defensive line not get a lot of pressure. Phil Parker will need to call more blitzes and put more pressure on that secondary. I don't think that's the case,

but that could be a possibility. Finally, will our new tackles hold up to the task? All right, we're replacing Alaric Jackson and a mix of Coy Cronk and Mark Kallenberger. Can Jack Plum hold up? I know the Iowa football coaches have talked very highly of Jack Plum. I did not see it on tape. Nick Kendall also talked very highly about Jack Plum. I did not see it on tape, and the advanced analytics also backed up what I saw. Jack Plum struggled mightily when he was in the game.

Who is going to be at those two tackle spots? They are going to be new tackles. Can they hold up? And then the last thing is we don't find a consistent threat at that number two tight end. All right. There's, we have every reason to believe we have several options there, but can Luke Lachey, can Elijah Yelverton, can they take the step and be that number two tight end? We saw this happen with Noah Fant, had a lot of hype coming into his junior year, and then we saw TJ Hawkinson step up. Is this time for Luke? Is this time for Elijah Yelverton or Josiah Myman? If they don't step up, if one of those guys don't step up, that is going to be a huge loss for the Iowa Hawkeyes

because they rely on two tight end sets so heavily. If all this happens, Iowa could go 7-5 in my personal opinion. Best case again, they go 12-0. They go undefeated and they are playing in the Big Ten Championship game. That is how big of a difference this team has based on just a few small factors. Let me know what your thoughts are on that team though. Coming up on segment three, we're going to talk about the women's basketball team. That team has a lot of hype coming into this offseason but we need to talk about what is the man and match for this team what is best case and worst case for the women's basketball team led by caitlin clark and coach lisa bluter before we get into that though betonline.ag is the fastest and the easiest way to bet on all of your sports action baseball season

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We are back for our third and our final segment, and we are breaking down the best case and worst case scenario for this Iowa women's basketball team. And it's pretty obvious. The best case, this team is a final four contender this year. That's right. A final four contender this year. Now what that means is a lot of things need to go right now. I think they have the talent. I think they have the potential. And when you have what I consider the best player in all women's college basketball on your team, you have the opportunity to go there anytime. Now, when we look at this past year's team, they struggled to gel early on. They weren't able to close out games. They weren't able to beat the good teams. That needs to change this

year. I think they are going to probably enter the season ranked as a top 10 team. I think they finished the season as a top four, top five ranked team. I think they can get a one or a two seed, and they will be playing in the final four best case scenario. But what happens in that case? How do they get there? Well, you have Kaitlyn Clark getting that Big Ten Player of the Year award. Kaitlyn Clark finding ways to improve on her phenomenal freshman year.

She's playing for the under-19 team. Can she continue to improve and become truly the best player in the nation in the Big Ten? She didn't get the hype she deserved early on in the year, but I think she played outstanding last year. She needs to continue that play. Kaitlyn Clark is how this team goes. That is the most important thing. We need two All-Big Ten players. Monica Sinano was All-Big Ten this past year. Sinano, excuse me, and Kaitlyn Clark. Both these girls need to have All-Big Ten season as we expect them to. But that's obvious stuff, right? Let's get into some of the deeper stuff.

I think Gabby Marshall needs to lead the conference in three-point percentage. She did a great job this past year. When you look at her stats, she absolutely dominated from behind three and she got hot late in the season Gabby Marshall hit 100 or hit 51 threes on 112 attempts for 46 percent that is a big deal Gabby Marshall needs to continue that that will help keep defenders on her and keep the lanes open for Kaitlyn Clark to drive when needed and across across the board, this Iowa offense can really shoot the three. Now, what happens though, when they go up against teams like a UConn that have some big players in the post, they need to be able to have players who can play in that post, right? We saw some good stuff from Sharon Goodman last year. We love what we saw from Monica, but can we see more from, and kind of Warner did a great job too, playing kind of a hybrid post player.

But Iowa has two incoming freshmen, Alice Nedger and Addison O'Grady, who are top recruits, top 100 recruits. And they are going to get some playing time, I think, early on in their careers. Can they give Iowa a consistent threat off the bench? And can four-star wing, Sydney Alphalter, excuse me, get consistent minutes and

get some consistent playing time when we look at this Iowa offense this I'm sorry this Iowa team in general there wasn't much after that first string unit Tommy Tywell I know I butchered name a little bit she averaged 13 minutes per game at times she really struggled with what to do when the ball was in her hands i need to see better from that second string unit sharon goodman didn't look good in time right but can these this team improve on their second string unit and that's where iowa struggles that they are going to get they're going to be in that worst case scenario which to me is a six seed probably finished finishing slightly outside the top 25.

It's if they can't figure out what to do with that second unit, that second unit might at least struggled, right? Might at least struggled. So can they find a second unit? Adding Kylie Firebox is going to be huge for Iowa because she's either going to start or she's going to come off the bench. And if she starts, that means a Gabby Marshall or Kate Martin is coming off the bench. And you love what you get when you're getting one of those two ladies off the bench. Again, you add in three top recruits. You add an improved play from some of the younger players on this Iowa women's basketball squad. That could be a big recipe for success. But if they can't, if they can't get a consistent threat off that second unit, that is going to hurt Iowa significantly we saw it whenever Kaitlyn Clark went off the court Iowa struggled so they need to build an offense not just around Kaitlyn Clark

but also when Kaitlyn Clark is off the court can they score that is going to be huge defensively this women's basketball team needs to improve they are DEFCON level five bad at defense. Okay. They were one of the worst teams in the entire nation. We talked about the men's basketball team being bad at defense. The women's basketball team makes the men team look like they are a bunch of defensive all-stars, right? I'm not kidding.

This is literally one of the worst teams in the nation in defense last year. They need to improve. Now you're not going to expect this team to be a top 10 defensive team. They're not built like that. That's not how Lisa Bluter likes to play basketball, but they can be better than what they were, and they need to be better so they can hold themselves in games where they are struggling shooting the ball. Kaitlin Clark

struggled a bit in the early parts of that UConn game. Defensively, can they hold them in while Kaitlin Clark figures that out? I think that is going to be a very key piece. Injuries is always going to be an issue, right? Can they survive the injury bug? They've done so, so far. Can they continue to do so?

And again, going back to that bench, can they expand that bench and actually give their starters a bit of rest without having to worry about losing the game and letting that game get out of control? If they can do that, this team has so much potential to be one of the best, if not the best, women's basketball team we've ever seen. And I'm including the Megan Gustafson years as well.

That's how great a potential this women's basketball team has coming into this upcoming season. It is going to be a great year in Iowa Hawkeye athletics again. This past year has been arguably the best we've ever seen. This upcoming year could be even better from a football perspective and from a basketball perspective on both sides of the ball,

or both sides of the gender, I should say, men and women. They can absolutely both dominate. I do think the men's team has more question marks, but I think if those pieces come together, this team maybe doesn't dominate, but at least could be a consistent threat in the NCAA tournament to go somewhat far and a potential upset pick.

So that's my min-maxes. That's my best worst-case scenarios. Let me know what your thoughts are as well. Feel free to tweet me. Send me a message on Facebook or Instagram. Let me know your thoughts as well. Love to hear from you all. And again, thank you all for tuning in to today's episode of Locked on Hawkeyes podcast.

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Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. Hawkeye Nation, I appreciate you tuning in. Have a fantastic Wednesday, and let's go Hawks!