Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - FACTS ONLY: Iowa Hawkeyes NCAA Resume OUTSHINES Bubble Teams - Iowa Football Close to #2 QB for 2027?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Iowa Hawkeyes are not a bubbled team. Time to dispel some notions that are out there from Hawkeye fans about the chances of this Iowa team making the NCAA tournament. And don't sleep what's brewing on the recruiting trail in football. The Hawkeyes are closing in on a top two quarterback for the class of 2007. You are Locked on Hawkeyes. Your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Welcome in. I'm Trent Condon, and this is the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast.

Starting point is 00:00:41 Your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast, glad to have you aboard with us here today. I've been covering the Hawkeyes for over 20 years on the radio here in the state of Iowa, including currently on the Iowa Sports Radio Network across the great state of Iowa, stations in Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, the Quad City, Sioux City, and our flagship 106.3 KX&O. You can hear me each weekday from noon to two. Today's episode is brought to you by Mazda. We put the same drive into every detail.

Starting point is 00:01:09 Wins Define the Moment, putting in the work that defines you. Stay tuned for highlights in this week's moving the game forward. There's more to a Mazda because there's more to you. We got some football talk coming up for you today as I was closing in and potentially getting a commitment from a top two quarterback, according to rivals in the class of 2007 and Jake Narrod. We're also going to be joined by John Bowen Camp from the, The AP will get his thoughts on both the Iowa men and the Iowa women as we come to the final weeks here of the season and get ready for both Big Ten tournaments. We begin today, though, to dispel some notions that are out there and the freak out factor that seems to be heading with a certain portion of the Hawkeye fan base.

Starting point is 00:01:52 That Iowa is now in deep trouble of being an NCAA tournament team. The wheels are falling off. This is what you should expect from a team that came in with a bunch of mid-major players. and that's what they are. It's out there. And frankly, it couldn't be further from the truth. This is not to say that if Iowa loses out, that they're not going to be in trouble for the NCAA tournament.

Starting point is 00:02:14 Because if they lose their final four games here of the regular season, home against Ohio State, another ugly loss against Penn State, then on top of it losing, which we anticipate, I think they're going to lose. They're decided underdogs against Michigan at home. And then the finale over in Lincoln against Nebraska. plus then lose their first game in the Big Ten tournament. Yes, we will be having a different conversation about this team.

Starting point is 00:02:39 And if you believe that that's going to happen, I'll tell you what, hop on the Fiannual app and jump together and put together a money line parlay and just keep rolling it over and you're going to be in good shape at the end of that. Back to what we're looking at, though, and I was resume as it's currently constructed. So one place that I talk about often is Bart Torbic. It is an incredible analytical website that you can go. through, you can look at a bunch of different numbers. It talks about offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency. I use it to see if it's painting exactly. If the numbers match up with

Starting point is 00:03:13 what our eyeballs are seeing out there, and a lot of times you can dive in and find a whole lot more. So currently, he has in his bracket projection, Iowa as the top number eight seed, meaning one spot out of being a seven seed for the NCAA tournament. And there are still 12 teams still in the tournament that are below the Hawkeyes. When you go through and you take a look at some of these teams, in fact, he put a graphic up on Twitter earlier on Monday night talking about the bubble teams and had them ranked with their different resumes and the comparison between all these bubble teams.

Starting point is 00:03:48 Iowa wasn't even listed in that. And when you go through and you look at the numbers that really matter, the numbers that matter when it comes to the NCAA selection committee, Iowa still is not close to being a bubble team. They're 28th currently in the net. That is a sorting tool that they use, what you do against different teams in there. That is obviously a very solid number. But as we've talked about before, here the last couple of days, a number that is incredibly important also is WAP, wins above bubble. Iowa in that metric ranks 29th in the country. And when you're going through and you're looking at a number of these different teams that are on the bubble in comparison to what Iowa currently is.

Starting point is 00:04:28 Iowa, even with those metrics being very good, we take a look at a bubble team. Let's say Texas. Texas currently is projected to be a number 10 seed in the NCAA tournament, and you look through their resume and you see what the Longhorns have. Well, in terms of the resume, strength the record, Iowa has them beat significantly there. Their average resume is 37. Iowa, on the other hand, is 33rd. Big gap between them and a team that is still solidly in.

Starting point is 00:04:55 We're not talking about a Texas team that is considered one of the five. team's in. This is a team that is still solidly in the field and the comparison between the two. When it comes to quality that they've done to this point in time, Texas comes in, checks in at 36. Iowa, on the other hand, is 31st. You go through and look at some of the other

Starting point is 00:05:13 numbers. Texas, 5 and 7 against Quad 1, 2 and 2 against Quad 3, combined 7 and 9 record. That's what you get out of Texas. And you can go through all these different teams that are even on the right side of the bubble. And Iowa's resumes just a whole lot better. Iowa has put together a resume that has them solidly in the field. I understand these last couple of weeks have been frustrating. Starting with that loss against

Starting point is 00:05:39 Maryland, it has not been pretty. We've talked about the issues defensively out of this squad, getting run out of the gym late against Wisconsin, not being able to get stops. This team is not playing their best basketball of the season. Completely understand that. But you have to look at the resume in its totality. And in its totality, Iowa is. still in incredibly good shape to make the NCAA tournament. Look, if Iowa goes out this week, beats Ohio State, beats Penn State, all this is for not. It is a conversation that is completely over, even if they lose a final two, get blown out

Starting point is 00:06:12 the final two games and lose their first game in the Big Ten tournament. They are still solidly in, probably going to play in the eight, nine game. And what you hope for is this team pulls themselves out of this Meyer that they're in right now, out of the muck that they're currently finding themselves in, play better basketball, get some stops on the defensive end of the floor, something that they've struggled to do outside of the Nebraska game over the last three plus weeks of this season. They do that.

Starting point is 00:06:36 They are going to be fine. And even if they only win one of these Final Four regular season games, they're still going to be, I believe, okay to be an NCAA tournament team because that's what the resume says. Those are what the numbers say. That's what it paints. Iowa, three quad one victories. They're five and O against Quad two.

Starting point is 00:06:54 You put those two together. Iowa, that sorting tool. eight and seven against Quad 1 and Quad 2. Just one bad loss. That's that road loss to Maryland that they have on the resume. Currently a Quad 3 loss for them. That's how it is at this point. I get it, but there's no need to freak out now.

Starting point is 00:07:12 We can freak out if they lose to Ohio State and Penn State, then yes, we will absolutely do that. What to jump over to the women's side here for a moment. And the AP poll comes out this week. Look, I have no problem at all with Michigan being ranked ahead of Iowa, even after Iowa paced them on Sunday and dominates that game in the tune of an 18-point victory. I get it. The resumes, though, are not as significant between the two.

Starting point is 00:07:35 In fact, Iowa has them beaten a couple of different metrics. They have more quad-one victories this season. That's obviously a metric that is incredibly important. It's something that they definitely have at this point. They have the head-to-head. And when resumes are similar, what you struggle and what I struggle, I think, most of when I look through and look through the AP rankings and some of the ones that have struggled, voter out there has Michigan 7th, Iowa 12.

Starting point is 00:08:00 Again, I don't have a big problem with that. The gap may be between the two, though, that's where I struggle. Both teams are 22 and 5 on the year. Iowa does have one more Quad 1 victory than them. Iowa against Quad 1 and Quad 2 is 13 and 5 on the women's side. Michigan is 10 and 5. Three more of those victories for the Hawkeyes. Strength of schedule, Iowa is third in the country.

Starting point is 00:08:24 Michigan's still very good as well. They're seventh in the country. When you have an 18-point game, though, between two teams that are very similar resume-wise, the gap between the two teams, that's what I really struggle with. And when we look at this Iowa team, they're likely going to win the final two games of the season. Illinois, coming up at home on Thursday night, and they go to Wisconsin, putting themselves in the number two-two-seed in the Big Ten tournament. And we're talking about two-three seed.

Starting point is 00:08:52 That's where they're likely going to end up in the NCAA tournament. that means hosting and having a really good shot of putting together something incredible. That means, yes, getting to the second weekend, getting to a sweet 16 and maybe even playing in a late 8, something they haven't done without Caitlin Clark since Meg Augustinson's senior year when they lost to Baylor. Lots still in front of this team. Love the way that they're playing. The metrics absolutely love the squad and what they've been able to do throughout the course of the season. And we go through resumes and we take a look at that, it paints a pretty good picture.

Starting point is 00:09:24 overall for this Iowa women's basketball team, what they are and what they're going to be going forward. We got football talk coming up here as we talk about Jake Nyrod and his opportunity to possibly be a Hawkeye ranked number two in the country by rivals in the quarterback rankings for the class of 2007. But first, we're going to talk more basketball. John Bowencamp, he's the writer for the Associated Press.

Starting point is 00:09:49 He'll join us next. We'll talk Hawkeye women and men's basketball with Bowencamp. when we come back. This is Locked-on Hawkeyes. This is Mazda's moving the game forward. For those who show there's more to the score than what's on the screen. These are the little things that remind us what it takes to really raise the bar. It's had extra work off the court.

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Starting point is 00:11:48 visit fanduel dot com to get started use your profit boost on an NBA future and get entered for your chance to win a trip to the NBA finals. Play your game with Van Duel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Let's get to John Bowen Camp. He covers Iowa for the Associated Press, Iowa College Hoops.com, and he joins us. John, Trent and Ken, thanks for coming on, John Bowen Camp. How are you? I'm good. How you guys do it? Don't okay. I was in your part of Iowa a couple of times over the last couple of weeks as I made way, way through. Very lovely part of the state, John, really is. It is. It is. In the good train watching, too. Good train watching through. Absolutely. Let's start with the women, and you guys correct me if I'm wrong, because years run together.

Starting point is 00:12:38 This would be the end of the Caitlin Clark's back-to-back Final 14th Senior Day yesterday with the two seniors furback and Stulke. That's it, right? Am I missing anybody? They're all gone? And Taylor McCabe. And Taylor McCabe. And Jay to Jimpy. And now we say that. And then, of course, somebody will win a lot. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:13:04 So I'm everybody, if it's your eligibility and no, I'll be back. Yeah. No, I mean, but yeah, this is, this is it. This is the final last few games of that era. Yeah. That's wild when you put it that way, right? At an era it was. Because they don't have any juniors on the roster.

Starting point is 00:13:19 I don't think they do. No, it's all sophomores and freshmen. Very young squad overall. John, we talked about this game earlier today, and one thing that jumped out is just the defense of this squad can play. And not just the Caitlin Clark arrow, but just overall, the Lisa Bluter era, defense was not exactly Iowa women's basketball calling card.

Starting point is 00:13:38 This team can defend. And to do this against a Michigan team that UCLA on the ropes were nip and tuck against Yukon, this, they didn't look like it yesterday, but this is a good Michigan team. And Iowa defensively just had them completely out of sorts. Yeah, I mean, held them to their season low in points. And, I mean, they made, well, they have left three field goals last quarter. You know, yeah, I mean, it's a good defense.

Starting point is 00:14:02 And why it's such a good defense is, you know, they've always been good kind of on the back end with the post they've had. Now they're really good out front, too. And so there just really is, for a lot of teams, there's been just nowhere to work. And you think back to where they were just, I mean, even a few weeks ago when they got beat by Minnesota, the home and gave up a bunch of threes in that game. They've gotten consistently better since then. So, yeah, this is as good a defense as I've seen there in a while. In the fourth quarter, you brought it up, John, the fact that you knew Michigan was going to need to,

Starting point is 00:14:36 you know, to get active offensively for the fact that they just totally took them out of their game and shut them down. So what's the ceiling for this team, John? Obviously, UCLA's a whole different breed, right? When it comes to the conference, they're breathing different air than how. everybody else. But what is the ceiling for Jensen's group do you think? You see them a bunch? I mean, I think they, I'm pretty sure they can get the second weekend. You know, a lot's going to depend on where there's seed. If they're a two or three seed in a regional, you know, they can get to an

Starting point is 00:15:08 lead eight. But the thing is, I mean, when you, when you look at women's basketball, you look, there's, there's maybe, you know, there's that five or six teams in that upper tier, and then you kind of go down. They're in that second tier. And I do think. they could get to an elite eight. But, you know, they've kind of shown this year when they played Yukon, when they played UCLA, that they've, that they really struggled. So, you know, in a one game situation, could they beat one of those teams? Absolutely.

Starting point is 00:15:35 But, you know, a lot of it just depends on where they're seeded out, you know, who kind of is in their regional and how they kind of match up with them. But I do think second weekend for sure and quite possibly in Elite 8, right. So we see Taylor Stremlow now in the starting lineup. in a couple of games ago. Addie deal after how well she played right after the injury to McCabe in that Ohio State game, hasn't been there for Addie Deals since she was inserted in. And now it's Stremle, somebody that you always can tell us confident.

Starting point is 00:16:04 I mean, she does not lack for confidence. And it doesn't matter the shot, doesn't matter the past. She thinks she can make it every single time. You couple it, though, it feels like it's all starting to click with her. She's a well-like person. She's kind of taken over. I think that Jada Jimfee role is, you know, the clubhouse mom, if you will. She's got that compoted to her.

Starting point is 00:16:20 Every time her crew comes in, oh, they're going to hang out with Stremlow. She's that kind of personality. But she's got some game, too, to go with it. If she shoots the ball like she has really outside of yesterday, coupled with what she can do passing, she is just a huge difference maker, I think, for this group. Oh, yeah. I mean, you saw some of those flashes last year as a freshman. And, you know, this year, there just was, you know, they were just older players ahead of her.

Starting point is 00:16:44 So the minutes were kind of limited. You know, with the McCabe injury, they tried at ideal. as you said, it didn't work. And now, you know, Stremelow is coming in there. And it really has kind of solidified that backcourt in my mind. And, you know, in case of Adi Deal, I think what she is running into is what you call, you know, freshman February. You know, I think every, you know, well, so many freshmen run into that when they get into February that it's been a very long year when you think back to where they started in the summer. And I think sometimes players just kind of run out of gas.

Starting point is 00:17:16 And I think that's kind of happened to her. She's going to be a really good player down the road, but I think right now it's just kind of hit a wall. Let's go to the men's game yesterday. Men's not so fortunate as the women were. They were on the road. It was a game. Iowa had the lead after 20 minutes,

Starting point is 00:17:31 but Wisconsin able to put them away and then pull away late in the basketball game. So when you got through with your chores working the women and got over to the men, obviously, I keep saying, but it kind of rings true, right? as Sturts go, so go the hawks. And that's been the way it's been all year.

Starting point is 00:17:51 But they are getting some other help. I think Fulgaris, to me, is one of the guys that's really got a chance. And I think he can. He's got a chance maybe to elevate his game, even another notch as we get set to move into March for the Men. Yeah, but I think what you've seen out of him is kind of what Ben McCollum said at the beginning of year, that you knew they were going to be up and fit, that he saw a lot of ups and downs with it during the summer,

Starting point is 00:18:15 the time that they did have with it in the summer. And then in the fall, and he's like, you know, we need consistency out of him. And really, for this team to be a good team when you get into March to get into the NCAA tournament, he is going to have to be consistent. It's got to be, you know, it can't be, you know, 15, 16 points one night free back. Right. You know, or really good effort on defensive end one night and not a good effort to the next night. He has to be consistent.

Starting point is 00:18:43 If he can be consistent, he can pair with Ben and. And then that becomes a lot better team, I think. But it's just a matter of just obtaining that, you know, two to three game consistency that you want to see out of an older experienced player like that. Cooper Kach is not an experienced guy. It really is first run through, though he played a little bit last season. The injury derailed his freshman campaign. Now a red shirt freshman, a goose egg in the rebounding department.

Starting point is 00:19:08 That's hard to do. He had a goose egg in the rebounding department against Maryland. He played a combined 71 minutes in those games. and the shots just not falling and talk about hitting that wall. Definitely probably the case there. But if you're going to play 71 minutes of basketball on the road, you got to get more than a rebound, more than zero rebounds that he had. That's a big problem there.

Starting point is 00:19:27 I know what they're liking to do in defensively. Is it time to start to say, you know what, we have a veteran in Elverro Fool Garris. We need to be even giving more because they're just not getting enough right now from Cooper Couch. Well, and that is the thing. They do need production. And when we say production, it's not just points. rebounds, the steals, whatever, out of other guys. And yesterday, they didn't get that.

Starting point is 00:19:50 And so in Cooper Codchin's case, you know, you want to have him out there, but at the same time, at some point in the game, if he's not producing, you got to circle some guys in some more and do some things with him. And so I think that, you know, again, things that you're going to, you know, they really have to kind of shore up here in the next couple weeks is to get that production from everybody who's out of that court, you can't have a lot of zeros on that box score anymore. Nope.

Starting point is 00:20:18 At this point in year. Nope, I couldn't agree with you more. Tate Sage had a game and he hadn't, you know, played like he's had yesterday in a while. It was good to see Tate's who certainly had his moments. Don't get me wrong. He was really good in the month of January. Slow into February.

Starting point is 00:20:33 Wonder if there was something there. I thought he was really good yesterday as well, John. Yeah, I do think so. And, I mean, I think he, that's what you want to see out of him. this point in the year. Because you want to see him get back through the way he was playing in December, January. That's another guy that I think can really help them out

Starting point is 00:20:50 as we get into these next couple weeks. And so you really want him to build on what he did yesterday and then as they came forward. One guy that hasn't seen much run, but you do kind of wonder as we come through the stretch here, different matchups they're going to see, I mean, Michigan on the horizon, how big they are. Do they need to find four minutes a half for Trevon, Iraq?

Starting point is 00:21:09 Do you think that there's there? Or is it just, it's too much. too soon for the freshman? I don't think it's too much too soon, but I don't think you want to, I don't think you want to think you're going to get 20 out of it, you know, you want to get 10 out of it. You want to get 10 really good minutes, 10 to 15 at this point in his career. I mean, he's still fresh, but still young. But you want to start getting him in there because, I mean, I thought when he played a couple

Starting point is 00:21:32 weeks ago, because Purdue, I thought he was pretty good at time. So I think you do, you are going to need that against some of these teams. you are going to need that when you get into March. And so I do think that you kind of want to see out of him, you know, some again, some consistency in his play. And by doing that, you've got to give him playing time. Two and two out of their final four, say Michigan and Nebraska don't go their way but beat Ohio State, Penn State, which is certainly not without the realm possibility.

Starting point is 00:22:02 I mean, two and two, that would be an 11 and 9 campaign. I'm guessing, you know, if we'd have polled Hawkeye fans prior to the year, They would have signed for that, right? 11 and 9 campaign? Yeah, I mean, that's, you know, it's about 500 in one of the best. Conference play, yeah, yeah. You know, and you could make the argument that this is the best, the conference country. So I, in my mind, you know, at the beginning of the year, I said I thought this could be,

Starting point is 00:22:29 when you looked at the big 10, in my mind, they were kind of an 11, 9, 10, 10, 10 feet. So you can get to 11 and 9, you know, it's a winning record in this league that probably All this stuff gets you into the NCAA tournament. And you take that in the first year of a new team, which is, I mean, it is a new team. You know, it is a new coach, new players other than one. It's, you know, to do that this year, I think is, I know, I know there'll be some Iowa fans that won't accept that. But in my mind, it's been a pretty good year. John, I know years ago you went through the mock selection committee process.

Starting point is 00:23:03 You got to learn a little bit about it and write it for the AP. So a bunch of media members were able to do that over the weekend. And my biggest takeaway, though, is something that started to morph in a little bit a season ago. They were talking about Wobb, wins above bubble, hearing all the media guys, then hearing the chairman on Saturday, heard an extra interview with him over the weekend. It sounds like this metric. We talk about net a ton, and that's important. That's more of a sorting tool, actual selection and where teams go through the process in the bracket.

Starting point is 00:23:34 That wins above bubble seems like maybe the most important metric now. Yeah. And I and and and you know when when you say that you know about the net being assorting to it, that's been kind of the you know, the thing that people sometimes don't realize about when you know, when it's no different with the RPI too. Well, you got a 21 net or 21 RPI back in day. That doesn't necessarily mean you're going to get in. They look at, you know, that's only how you're considered these other things. So in my mind, this new metric is just something that you really have. to keep an eye on when you look at those team sheets every day. And it's, you know, I know everybody makes a big deal out of quad one wins,

Starting point is 00:24:15 but it's like there are quad one wins and then they're a quad one win, you know. It's like winning at Washington was a quad one win, but wasn't that big a deal, you know. I love that Steinbach, though. He's a hell of a player. He's a hell of a player. So, so I mean, you know, it's not going to catch a committee side, you know, necessarily. So that was one of the things that I think really came out of that mock select. thing. And I retweeted, I think it was Matt Norlander's story to kind of explain everybody,

Starting point is 00:24:42 this is what they look at. And I remember when I did that back in 2010, I always tried to explain people about this is what they look at, you know, and this is how it's done and all that. And different committees have different formulas, but this metric is something that I think is going to get a lot of consideration when that committee meets in March. That is John Bowencamp, joining us from the Associated Press. As always, thanks to John for his time as we break things down and take a look again. Wobb, wins above bubble. Easy for me to say.

Starting point is 00:25:14 That is something that you can find on the NCAA tournament website. You can find on NCAA.org. You can find that tool each and every day. And it helps break down how this thing is going to look like. Like we said, Iowa in good shape. I was also in good shape as it pertains to a quarterback. the number two quarterback in the class of 2007. Is he going to be an Iowa Hawkeye?

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Starting point is 00:27:08 Trent, kind of back with you. one final time, Locked-on Hawkeyes. As always, thanks for being with us and making Locked-on Hawkeyes, your first listen every day, your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast, and a shout-out to our everydayers out there with us each and every day. So Jake Nyrod is the name that is being talked about in Iowa potentially closing the gap and maybe getting his services for the class of 2007 at the quarterback position. A big kid, 6'4, 200 pounds.

Starting point is 00:27:37 He is a guy that is being looked. at by the Hawkeye staff has been offered, and a lot of signs are indicating that the Hawkeyes maybe are in the pole position to get his services. There was a report yesterday from rivals talking about just that, talking about him moving up, the possibility of him making a commitment to Iowa. Other competition includes Washington, Kansas State, Oklahoma State. Those are the other programs that are looking at him, a kid out of the Chicago land, and has ties to Iowa.

Starting point is 00:28:08 You know, after what the Hawkeyes did a year ago and getting the services from another highly regarded quarterback, getting trading Bessinger to come in, we know this year it's going to be about Hank Brown battling up against Haklinsky. That's going to be the duel. Heklinsky, I think, is the inside favorite to get that job for next season and maybe for the next couple.

Starting point is 00:28:30 But you keep stacking up these kind of quarterbacks. And the tutelage that Tim Lester can provide getting these guys to learn the system to understand more and more programs are moving away from high school recruiting, at least looking at potential starters out of the high school ranks. You look at a program like Miami and what the hurricanes have done recently. Iowa, maybe there is a niche, maybe there is a possibility where Iowa can be in good shape with these high school quarterbacks,

Starting point is 00:28:56 not going out, spending all your money in the portal in order to get the services of one of these quarterbacks. Might be something that's going to help out, but certainly good news there. Now, this is not across all industries. I know over at 24-7, they are not nearly as high on Jake Narott as we see over at rivals. That's going to happen. But we'll see where the competition goes. Iowa, though, in really good shape.

Starting point is 00:29:19 And that's exciting, certainly for Iowa football. Quarterback play, oh, yes, the most important position in sports. Thanks for being with us and making Lockdown Hawkeyes, your first listen every day. We are your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast here on the Lockdown Network. Now, number one, for sports podcasts. If you never miss an episode, the everydayer club is built for you. Get locked on Hawkeyes, ad free, plus members-only Discord access and more. Just go to lockedon hawkeyes.

Starting point is 00:29:47 That's lockdown hawkeyes.com. That's locked-on hawkeyes. That supercast.com. Help us out, support what we're doing for you each and every day, and do it for yourself. Add free. We will talk to you tomorrow and we will break down the matchup against Ohio State. What can Iowa possibly do to slow down Bruce Thornton? A big win at Carver Hawkeye on Wednesday night.

Starting point is 00:30:08 We got you covered on that front as we preview the Hawkeyes and the Buckeyes, plus a whole lot more as we rolled through on your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast. Thanks for being with us. We'll talk to you again tomorrow. Until then, go Hawks.

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