Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Hawkeye Offense Stat deep dive, Degenerate Picks against the spread

Episode Date: September 8, 2022

Trent Condon is back with Biz for another edition of the Locked on hawkeyes podcast. Plenty to get into today as we hear from Jace for the first time since the Hawkeye win over South Dakota State.Biz went to Stat Boy who delivers a Top 10 in statistical nuggets from the Hawkeyes in the win. Some questions at the quarterback position and just how bad Spencer Petras has been. Why does Iowa seem to be the only team in the country that can win games like this? And a whole lot more.Then the guys turn their attention to Iowa State and what concerns are there for the Hawkeye. Are we looking at another Kirk Special with the team having its back against the wall. And giving some credit to the Hawkeye defense.Finally it's time to make some picks presented by Bet Online. They guys pick the Iowa game vs. Iowa State with the Hawkeyes currently as 3.5 point favorite, Alabama laying 19.5 at Texas and then make their best bet for the week.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!LinkedInLinkedIn jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at Linkedin.com/lockedoncollege Terms and conditions apply.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts!UpsideDownload the FREE Upside App and use promo code Locked to get $5 or more cash back on your first purchase of $10 or more. Underdog FantasySign up on underdogfantasy.com with the promo code LOCKED ON and get your first deposit doubled up to $100!  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Locked On Hawkeyes podcast, Trent and Biz back together again. We go to Stab Boy. Just how bad was Saturday? Can the Hawkeyes find a way to beat Iowa State? And we make our picks of the week. The Degenerate Lifestyle is back. All today on the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. You are Locked On Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes podcast. You are locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back to another edition of the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast.

I'm Trent Codd and Jace Bisgard here with us as we talk Hawkeyes with you each and every day. Thanks for joining us on the podcast side and the video side on YouTube. You're not going to see us today as we're actually working together in the same studio and couldn't figure out the logistics. Instead, we're just hanging out. But Biz, good to see you in person. This is a rarity for us. I drive all the way to Des Moines.

I get all dressed up. I'm wearing a suit and tie. And the video doesn't work. I know. I know. Technology is not exactly my friend. But hopefully the audio quality is better. Yesterday we had some struggles with that.

We're off and running and getting things figured out, as is the Iowa offense. Today's episode brought to you by Upside. Download the free Upside app and use promo code LOCKEDON to get $5 or more cash back on your first purchase of $10 or more. That's LOCKED to get $5 or more at Upside. First conversation outside of some frustrated text messages to each other throughout the course of the game. Let's go back one final time.

I'm ready to turn the page, but I know you got some thoughts on what we saw Saturday. You were inside Kinnick stadium and a disappointed, certainly crowd and fan base over there. Just some takeaways from you after what we saw Saturday. Well, if you think about it, Trent,

not having the video portion and only having the audio seems that's pretty appropriate. Cause I have a football only had half of their team there as well, apparently. So, yeah, Trent, you've been dealing with this for four straight days. So my question for you is just pretty simple. What the hell was that? That was, as an Iowa fan, you get used to being limited offensively.

You get used to having some frustration, but that took it to an all-new level on Saturday. That was, you know, there's no such thing as a bad win, but that was pretty darn close to a bad win. I travel a lot for work, Trent. I drive around a bunch, and so I end up listening to a lot of other podcasts, a lot of national podcasts with the College Football Inquirer and Solid Verbal and all those.

And I guess if you believe in the statement that no press is bad press or no news is bad news, then I guess it was a great week for Iowa because behind maybe the Ohio State-Notre Dame game and the Georgia blowout, we were definitely in the top three as far as national news stories this week. But national news story as a national joke. So, yeah, it's, like you said, ready to turn the page. But before we do that, we need to kind of purge, Trent. Are you ready to purge?

Yeah, so I know you had Statboy at work this week, always putting him at the forefront of things, and there was plenty of information to come out of this. Two safeties in a game, a 7-3 win. I think nationally everybody was hoping that that thing would have ended 5-3 and you would have got more of a baseball score. Because I'm sure there's people that looked at it and said, oh, 7-3, well, at least Iowa got a touchdown.

We know that was not the case. Well, we'll talk about 5-3, Trent, here in a little bit. When you get these statistical anomaly games and, quite frankly, the incredibly ugly outlier type games, this is where he makes his big bucks.

I sent him a series of questions. As usual, he went beyond those questions and found a wide variety of things. So many, Trent, that we have a top ten list. Oh, wow. You ready for a top ten list of bizarre stats, info, whatever you want to call it from last week's debacle? I can only imagine what stat boy dug up.

Let's go. All right. So top ten, Trent. We'll start with everybody's favorite whooping boy. We'll start with Spencer Petras. Oh, yeah. And I promise this top 10 is not going to be, you know, all Spencer Petras because, you know, you and I talked about it a lot.

There's a whole lot more problems than Spencer Petras. Right. Certainly, he did not play well this week. You know, you heard Brian Ferencz yesterday. Brian Ferencz basically came out and said he didn't play well yesterday. But for better or for worse, he is our quarterback, and there's no change on the horizon. So let's start with number 10.

This is a softball one, Trent. I assume you saw it. Most people saw it. Last nine games, and this is – let's get some context here first. So most of these stats talk about the last nine games because right now Iowa's offense is, as I said, a national joke, but you don't have to go back that far to see an above-average offense. So the six games at the beginning of the 2021 year

and the last six games of the COVID year. You want to guess how many points we averaged per game? Well, I know 2020, they averaged a lot of points that year, and defense aided that a little bit. But, yeah, offensively, it was, I think, by far the best Brian Ferentz here as the offensive coordinator over the last five years. So you put those games together, I'd say 28, 28 a game. You're way low, 33.5 28 a game. You're way low.

33.5 points a game. Let's go through it real quick. Last six games of 2020, the pandemic year, started with the Michigan State game. So we're 0-2 at that point. From that point, we offense darn good. 49, 35, 41, 26, 35, 28, and 34. So then, or 34, I shouldn't start.

But then start of 2021 season, starting with 2021, 34, 27, 30, 24, 51, and 23. That's good. Well, it's not an accident that those 12 games, you don't know what our record was? Well, let's see. They went 6-0 in the last six. They were 12-0.

12-0. We've talked about it all the time. If the offense can somehow find a way to get to that magical 24 threshold, they're going to win. Yeah. And they did. So 12 games, 33.5 average. So it's kind of you don't have to go back that far to see a team

that used to be at least capable offensively. But then let's jump into the last nine games, Trent. Four games, so that was nine. Four of those nine where we scored seven or less. Jeez. And six of those nine games, one offensive touchdown or less. So, I mean, and obviously, you know, it's gotten progressively worse. So, the question is, you know, what's went wrong? So, but let's, So the question is, what's

went wrong? Before we talk about what's went wrong, can it be fixed? Let's get into the let's purge. Like I said, let's purge the top 10. So in those nine games, number 10 on the list, Trent, in those nine games you've probably seen it. What are Spencer Petras' touchdown-interception ratio?

One touchdown, eight interceptions. That is correct. And the one touchdown was on a tight end screen to Sam Laporta that went 45 yards for that score. He has not thrown a ball past the line of scrimmage for the touchdown since the throw to Nico Regani. So there's your number 10. Number 9, another passing stat. Then we'll move on from Spencer Peek.

Number 9, another passing stat. Since that Penn State game, last nine games, three passing touchdowns, three defensive special teams touchdowns. So nine games, we're in a dead tie between defensive special teams touchdowns and passing touchdowns. So that's not good. Not at all. I got one for you.

I don't know if Stat Boy dug this one up. Since that Penn State game, Iowa has scored multiple offensive touchdowns three times. Well, I told you that earlier. I said six out of the nine, we have one offensive touchdown. Two of those games were Alex Padilla games. Northwestern and Minnesota. Do with that what you will. Okay, go ahead.

Is the other one going to be Kentucky? That would be Kentucky in the bowl game, yes. All right, jumping ahead, we'll move past Spencer Peaches. Let's go into the yardage from last Saturday. There's a couple good nuggets here. 166. Number eight on the list at 166 yards. Our five opponents.

So basically, not Big Ten opponents and not Iowa State. That is the lowest yardage in the modern era. We always talk about the Kirk and Hayden era. Lowest by far, by 65 yards. The lowest before this, 231 yards. And guess who that game was? Is that the Arizona State-Iowa game? No, because that would be Power 5 still.

Still got to be. Okay. 231 against North Dakota State in the 2016 loss. So by 65 yards, it was the worst offensive output we've ever had against a non-Power 5 team. So number seven on the list, Trent, and this is where that number really jumps out. We had 166 yards last week.

Yeah. There's 131 FBS teams. Where did that put us? Did you see? I think it was 127. 129. 12 127. 129. 129. 129.

But for purposes of this exercise, I looked at the other four teams in the bottom five. So 127th was New Mexico State. Terrible. Brutal. 130th was Middle Tennessee. They got blown out by somebody terrible.

By James Madison. James Madison. Who I believe just transitioned. And 131, Bowling Green. Those four teams lost by a total score of 157-24. If you add it up, the average loss, 39-6. 39-6. Somehow we won a football game.

So the other team's 39-6. We win somehow 7-3 without a touchdown. So now one more statistical kind of anomaly, and then we'll get into some punting info. Because, you know, punting is winning. Yes. Number six, Trent, in the last five games, we're talking about 900 in the last five games, we have four offensive touchdowns.

So 24 points on our offense. In those last five games, the defense has three touchdowns and three safeties, and special teams has 38 points from our kickers. So our kickers and defense have outscored our offense the last five games, 62 to 24.

That sounds like a problem. That's not good. so let's let's turn the page and be positive here let's go into punting number five as we know punting is winning and these are two stats that uh you probably saw it was it was tweeted out by one of the national guys uh but just good info in general and punting since Since 2020, the last two years plus now, this is our sixth win. Sixth time we've won with eight plus punts. Okay. No other program anywhere has had more than two.

If you add the numbers up, since 2020, in games that we've punted eight times or more, somehow we're six and one. Hmm. The rest of FBSbs 45 and 170 so we win 86 percent of the times when we punt eight times or more the rest of the nation wins about 20 percent so uh i have a football punting truly is winning trent it's uh it's you know and thank god for our punter i mean i don't know the one punt where they didn't rush it and he was able to kind of wait and survey the scene

and wait for, I think it was Cooper Dijon to go down there. I mean, that was just a master class in punting. I mean, he literally put it exactly where he wanted to at the one-yard line. And that's, thank God for him because he certainly was the MVP on Saturday. Well, and we see how bad it can get when Iowa doesn't have a good putter.

I mean, we go back to Colton Rastetter and a few of the others in the past. It is a huge difference. In a way, is this maybe Kirk even doubling down on his conservative nature even more? We had a conversation on my radio show earlier this week. There's going to be a spot sometime this year. If these offensive woes continue, let's say this. I was up three. Late in the game, fourth quarter, there's five to be a spot sometime this year. If these offensive woes continue, let's say this. I was up three. Late in the game, fourth quarter, there's five minutes left.

Fourth and four from the Iowa State 33-yard line. You think they're going to try to pin them deep? Or would they actually go for it in that spot? They're not going to kick a 50-yard field goal, you wouldn't think in that situation. I would not be surprised if Kirk would try to punt it from the 33 and try to pit him inside the five again. And probably with the way that this team is built,

it's not a bad decision. I know national people rip on him, but for the way this Iowa team is built, it's not a bad decision to do that. Well, and late in the game. I mean, depending on the scenario and how late in the game, yeah, it's probably the right decision.

I mean... Is that what we get in three yards? Well, and the fact of the matter is, probably the right decision. I mean. Is that what we get in three yards? Right now. Well, and, you know, the fact of the matter is, I mean, I think what happened more than anything on Saturday is once things started to snowball and the offense started to be a mess, I mean, we really truly just kind of determined as a coaching staff, let's get the hell out of here. Absolutely.

And so, you know, could we have been a little more aggressive? Could we have gotten, you know, could we hit been a little more aggressive? Could we have gotten, you know, could we hit the magic 200-yard mark or something? Yeah, probably. We could have gotten some more yards out there, but there can't point

in that game where, as a coaching staff in general, I think we basically were just like, don't screw it up. Yeah, don't do as little as possible because they're not

going to score. And fortunately, they were right. All right, John, let's get back to the top 10. This one, you mentioned it earlier, but number four on the list,

this one's gold from Stat Boy. You talked about 5-3. Obviously, everybody was hoping to see a 5-3 game. It was, you know, cross your fingers and hope for 5-3. 7-3 and how it happened is neat, but 5-3 is its own beast. You probably saw this. 5-3 college football game was? Iowa, Arizona, 1980.

One of the first football games of my life was that. So Hayden started his second year. Expectations were high for Hayden's team. The first year, I think he had a free pass because they were so bad before. By year two, Hayden had ramped up the expectations. And so statboy, as he likes to do, he's got a subscription to newspapers.com.

He found some gold here, Trent. I'm just going to read you the first five paragraphs of the article for that game. What you find out from this article, nothing's changed in 42 years of Iowa football.

Offense is still a challenge, and fans are still very angry so uh here here's your uh your first five paragraphs from that loss this is from the legendary brian chapman cedar rapids gazette sports writer so right for iowa football these are times that try men's souls. George Washington and his starving men weathered the snow and howling winds of Valley Forge, a low point in the War of Independence that Thomas Paine found to be particularly trying. And Hayden Fry, the latter-day football commander who loves to pack his sentences of military terminology,

is finding things to be similarly chilly in Kinnick Stadium these days. Fry and his troops swarmed off the field in Kinnick Stadium Saturday afternoon following their 5-3 defeat to Arizona, with heads lowered and anger in their eyes. Hungry for victory and with pride battered and bruised from the intensity of the battle, they received little support from the crowd.

A long, loud chorus of boos from thousands of fans ushered the Hawks on their way toward the dressing room after the final gun. Did the fans booze under the Iowa ballplay their way toward the dressing room after the final gun. Did the fans booze under the Iowa ballplayers? Not at all, said split-end Keith Chappelle. They want us to win as much as players do. Those boos today don't affect us per se. We are down on ourselves just as much as they are down on us.

Fry echoed that sentiment. No, I'm not down on the fans at all. They're just disappointed. Hell, I don't blame them. We didn't put many points on the board. A hell of a lead by that writer. That is some hyperbole at its best. But the Boo Birds were out in 1980. You know, and it's

great, and I really love this because we talk a ton on the radio side. You're in the student section at the time, Biz. It was a great environment. It felt like I was so close to that breakthrough moment under Kirk. And the booze, and I remember it, now, drunkenly, but even as a student,

feeling a little bit bad for McCann at that time because he wasn't playing that poorly in comparison, at least as memory serves. It just had that bad decision. But we're talking about a game that was played 21 years after this 1980 game. To think that this is something new, that this is something different. It's not.

This has been happening as long as there's been football. There's been sports. People, fans have been booing. It's nothing different today. Well, and the same, being in Kinnick on Saturday, there was that same type of feel that you just described. I think at some point in the game, at least in our section, I think it went from anger at Spencer Petras

to a lot of people genuinely kind of feeling bad for Spencer Petras in our section because, I mean, you can just tell his confidence is shot. Yes, absolutely. I mean, he's more comfortable right now throwing a 20-yard dart down the seam than he is throwing a simple four-yard out pass. I mean, right now he simply can't throw a four-yard out. And if you can't throw a four-yard out, you can't be successful. I mean, there was multiple plays.

I mean, South Dakota State was willing to give us four yards on a lot of first downs, and we couldn't take it. And so, at some point, I mean, that can't be physical. I mean, you've seen he's got the physical tools to be a good quarterback. It has to be mental. I mean, right now, I don't know how you switch that. Once you lose your confidence and once – something miraculous is going to have to happen.

I'd actually like to see us on Saturday come out and take a couple shots down the field just because if you hit one, then maybe you get in a little bit of a rhythm and you just get some confidence back. Because, you know, usually what you try to do to get your quarterback confident is a couple easy short passes. But right now, those are his worst passes. I mean, he can't hit a rare pass. So let him do what his strength is, send Laporta down the seam

and let him throw a missile down the seam. And hopefully we get a 25-30-yard game. But I promise, Trent, this wasn't going to be all Spencer Petras. So let's move on. So yeah, so that's the 5-3 game, 1980. Nothing's changed in 40 plus years. Iowa fans still expect more than

three points from their offense. Last quiz question from that game. Who scored the only three points for Iowa in that game? Reggie Roby when he was still kicking. Reggie Roby was the kicker, yeah, but not a good day for Reggie. He went one for three on field goals.

Yeah, but he did make one. So yeah, he scored the only three points. So, all right, Trent, three more to go in the top 10, and these three are all quite good.

So number three, since 2000, FBS teams that have averaged less than 2.8 yards of play and had no offensive touchdowns, which is what happened on Saturday. We averaged 2.7 yards of play and no off touchdowns. Total record of those teams, 3-371. Okay. Everyone else is 1-370.

Iowa? That's two of the wins. Two and one. Two and one, baby. We've got the win from Saturday and what's the other famous no-touch? Oh, the 6-4 game. The 6-4 game. Yeah.

7-3 and 6-4, Trent. So we're 2-1. Everyone else, 1-370. It's incredible. But Iowa football, right? Yeah. So, all right, Yeah. Oof. So, all right, Trent, we saved the best for last.

This is, the last two are connected with each other. I mentioned at the start, in the last nine games, we've scored seven points or less four times. Seven points or less, okay, four times, got it. Number two on the list, when was the last time that happened in Iowa football? Four times in nine games where we score seven points or less. Four times in nine games. And this happened any time? Yep.

How far back do we have to go? How far back do you have to go in Iowa football? 70s? Yeah, but actually it was the other low point in Iowa football. The end of the Kirk era. The end of the Hayden era into the Kirk era. The last five games of Hayden's career in 1998 and then end of the first five games of Kirk's era in 1999,

six times in 10 games we scored seven or less. It got ugly in a hurry. Yeah, but I mean, that was some bad football. Really bad football. It was the worst football we've seen in our adult lives, that's for sure. Yes. But the reason that stat is so relevant, Trent, is because of number one on the list.

I saved this one for last because I really enjoy this one. That same stat four times in the last nine games, we scored seven points or less. Way back in 1999, there was two coaches that were looking at the Iowa job. Obviously, we got Kirk Ferentz, great hire. Who was the other person

who everybody wanted? Well, Bowlesby wanted Terry Allen. Yeah, but who'd the fan base want? Well, Stoops. Yeah. So I looked into it.

Bob Stoops, his entire career, Bob Stoops' entire career in Oklahoma and the Lincoln-Riley era in Oklahoma. So 24 years. In 24 years of football, you want to guess how many times Oklahoma scored seven points or less?

Once. Three. Three, okay. In 24 years, they never hit what took us nine games to do. So three times in all three games where I believe bowl games where they got blown out by There's one against USC maybe. Clemson was one, I believe, and Texas

was in there. Three times in 24 years. If you think that's just because Oklahoma throws all over the place, well, the year before Bob Stoops get there, they had four straight games with seven points or less. So not saying that Bob Stoops would have worked his magic here at Iowa,

and obviously you and I love Kirk Ferentz and very happy he's here, but definitely a different brand of football. And right now that brand of football is at an all-time low. So let's hope. All right, that's of football is at an all-time low. So let's hope. All right, that's it. That's it for the top 10. Let's hope we've purged it and ready to move on to greener pastures on Saturday. From cringing at the pump to getting an eye-popping check at your favorite restaurant,

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That's $5 or more cashback on your first purchase of $10 or more. That's $5 or more cash back on your first purchase of $10 or more using promo code locked. All right, Biz, we have gone through your David Letterman top 10 here. What do we got next? Iowa State and the Cyclones come in flying high. A team that has struggled out of the gate. They dominate CIMU. I watched that game Monday night. It's a bad Simu team. They are well, you can see why they're a bad FCS team. Went 4-7 a year ago. They couldn't run it much in the first half. That's a

saving grace. Got to go in a little bit. Iowa State did in the second half running the football. But I think that 42-10 score doesn't tell the full story of Lisa what I saw from Iowa State. I didn't see a second of the game because, you know, in classic Iowa State fashion, it wasn't even televised.

But I did look at the stats at halftime, and they gave up almost 250 yards to that bad CIMU team in the first half. So, you know, like you said, honestly, I think this is kind of a best-case scenario for Iowa in many ways. It kind of flips the scripts on most years. Most years, I think you worry about Iowa coming into this game overconfident and Iowa State looking to bounce back from a shaky week one performance.

I think you've got kind of the opposite here. I mean, lost in all of the being kind of a national laughingstock is we won. We're 1-0, and we're probably pissed off. It's the best-case scenario in some ways. You've got a team that won a game, but certainly isn't going to come in overconfident. This sounds weird after I just spent, you know, 15, 20 minutes bashing our coaching staff,

but these are the kind of games where you put a lot of trust in Kirk Ferentz's coaching staff. They rarely do they have two absolute clunkers back-to-back. Do they have clunkers? Absolutely. But for the most part, right when you think, when you're ready to give in on Iowa

football, they usually bounce back pretty well. Maybe again, maybe it's me with rose-colored glasses, but I think we see a significantly better team on Saturday. Does that mean we win? I don't know. But I think it's not going to be an embarrassment. I think we'll put some points up

against Iowa State and I think we'll at least we'll crack that magical 200-yard mark. Yes. I think that's fair. This team's going to look better. They have to. The one thing throughout the years with Kirk is every time this team has had their back

against the wall. Go back two years ago. 0-2 start, coming on the heels of everything that happened inside the program in the summer of 2020. It looked like it was the beginning of the end. And what do they do? They rip off six straight victories. They go out to Penn State a couple years before that, get absolutely brutalized in that game,

look as bad as they had in a while. They come back and beat the second-ranked team in the country, Michigan, 14-13. Is it setting up to be a Kirk special where a lot of negativity and this even keel program, not too high, not too low? There's a reason for it, and it's these kind of circumstances that feel, if Iowa comes out and does that, and they just put on the boa constrictor, and the defense is a lead, and they get a pick six, and they force a couple of turnovers, and they win this game 20-10, are you going to be shocked?

Because I'm certainly not, because we've seen this song and dance so many times. As frustrated as you were, as I get, that is still out there, and that's why you still have the hope that a Kirk Ferentz team will find a way to figure it out, even as bad as it looked. Yeah, and I agree with everything you said, but on the flip side of that is if they don't figure it out and they play just as poorly on Saturday and you lose to a rebuilding Iowa State team at home, I think this is kind of the breaking point for a few of our fans. I think this is the point where there's a lot of angry, angry fans out there.

And, you know, they have a right to be angry. After watching that game on Saturday, I mean, there weren't a lot of – the only positive you can take away from the offense at all is Arlen Bruce. Other than that, I mean, there's not a single positive anywhere out there. And, you know, so it's a unique game on Saturday because it feels like one way or another it's going to be kind of a turning point for this program. Either the offense takes a step in the right direction

and everybody takes a deep breath and says, okay, we'll be all right, or everybody goes over the cliff and long, long, long next three months. It could get ugly. And as we were just talking about the end of the Hayden era, long next three months. It could get ugly. And as we were just talking about the end of the Hayden era, how quickly that happened. Coming on the heels of 96, a real nice season, a great finish, the buildup to 97, the Sherman injury, the disappointment,

and then 98 happened. I mean, they completely fell off the clip. Are they going to get wide receivers? If the quarterback play continues to be like this, how quickly could it fall apart? It's not a stretch with the schedule that Iowa has that they are a 500-ish team. And then you're looking at 2023. Could that cliff happen? I mean, could it fall apart? The saving grace is the defense is so good. You wouldn't anticipate that kind of cratering, but we saw it happen quickly once before. It wouldn't be

at least I don't think a big shock if it does, and this isn't the biggest game of the Kirk Ferens era or anything like that, but it's an important one, a very important one when you just look at the way these last nine games have gone for Iowa. Yeah, and the big difference between

what happened late in the Hayden era and what's happening now is, I mean, Hayden's team just didn't have a lot of talent. They were just not very good those last couple years. This team's got plenty of talent. It's just all on one side of the ball. I mean, or special teams. I mean, but this defense, I mean, it's kind of a shame that we went a half hour into this without acknowledging

how great that defense was because from a defensive line perspective, Trent, that's the best one-to-eight defensive line I've ever seen. And obviously, you go back to like 09. I mean, that was the starting four defensive line. Unbelievable. You saw that year how many games they wore down and just ran out of gas in the fourth quarter.

We couldn't, I mean, you got to have depth. The difference between the Alabamas and the Clemsons of the world and teams like, or even the Michigans and Ohio State of the world and us, usually is depth on the defensive line. We have that this year. And so it would be a real shame to waste one of your best defensive lines by not being able to score at all. So, you know, it's looking at this game in general. I mean, the X factor of the whole

game to me is, I mean, I think we're a better team than them. I think we have a better defense, better special teams. We've got the home field advantage. We're a more experienced team. They said we have that kind of pissed off factor after last week. But the X factor is Hunter Deckers. Yeah. Nobody knows. I mean, if he comes in and handles the pressure and plays well, it wouldn't shock me at all if they win. But we've rattled enough first-year quarterbacks over the years

that he's going to have to prove it. I mean, so I feel, all things considered, I feel pretty good about this game. I think unless Hunter Deckers comes in and just lights things up, I think we've got a good chance. And I don't see that being the case. I just can't see him coming in and against this defense throwing for 280 yards and four touchdowns.

I think that would be a huge shock. Well, let's do it. Let's get into our picks here this week. Last week, we both go two and one. We had the same pick for our best bet of the week. And for once, it actually hit. I think it's just because we took Arkansas, right? Arkansas alley.

I'd be smiling ear to ear. Yeah, as you'll see in a little bit, I didn't. But I was very tempted to just keep riding Arkansas and just make it simple every week. Take Arkansas and see how long they go before they buck us off. So a 2-1 start to the season. You do have the tiebreaker for the Week 0 win that you got if we get

to that point. We're tied right now. So you have the lead. Game 1, Iowa laying 3.5 at home. The total sits at 40.5. Well, you just heard me, and so I've got to back this up. Give me Iowa minus 3.5, you just heard me in, so I've got to back this up. Give me Iowa minus three and a half. I just...

A, I think we're going to see a better Iowa team this week, and B, I just don't think this is all that good of an Iowa State team. I think this is a game, team, where will Iowa State be decent in week 8, 9, 10, 11, 12? Probably. I think Matt Campbell's a good

enough coach that they will get better as the year goes on. But they are a really young, really inexperienced team with the vast majority of their players never, ever had to deal with a Kinnick type of atmosphere. So add all that up and give me Hawks 3.5. I am going to grab the points here. The law of averages, six straight years. There's been games that Iowa has escaped that they probably shouldn't have won.

Yeah, they made plays to do it, but I go that direction, and the ineptitude of the offense, it still lingers. Plus that extra hook does kind of get me excited there because I obviously could see Iowa winning this game 16-13, something like that, and that's a cover. I go back to the 17-5 game with the stepping out of the back of the end zone, and that day I held a Iowa State plus 13.5 ticket like that one. Let's take another one of those.

I'll have the 3.5 ticket in my back pocket. Hawkeyes win by a field goal. How about that? You never remember the games where those things work out well for you, Trent. There was one. I had the one that had happened. The national game of the week, and I don't know how good of a game it's going to be. Texas-Alabama.

It is in Austin. It is an organization, obviously, and a team and a coaching staff that knows Alabama well. But we also thought that maybe last week with Dan Lanning in Oregon, it did not go very well. That was year one. This is year two for Sark. Big number. I've seen, what, 20, 20 and a half. I'm kind of open on this one, but ultimately I just got to lay it with Alabama. I think that's just, I went back and forth and I said, just don't do this.

Alabama in these early season games, when they take on name opponents, they have thrashed so many of them in the past. And normally it's a neutral site game. This one is in Austin, but I'm ultimately going to lay it with the Crimson Tide. I'm right there with you. I think, especially with what they saw Georgia do last week, Alabama and Georgia are just playing a different sport than everyone else right now.

I think, seeing that, they're going to come in plenty motivated. This is one of those, just keep it simple stupid games. I mean, Alabama, no matter what the number is, it could be 20, it could be 25, it could be 28. I'm not picking against Alabama right now. So give me Bama at 20 or 20 and a half, whatever it is. All right, we wrap things up with our best bet of the week. I got a top 25 matchup for mine, Tennessee.

What they did in your number one offensively was incredibly good. Defensively, though, they really really struggled. Now they go to Pitt. Keaton Slovis looked great last Thursday against West Virginia Times. I think both these teams are going to score. There's an adage you mentioned the solid verbal earlier. In a shootout, grab the points. I'll do that.

Give me Pitt at home getting six and a half against the Vols. Digging deep? Not too deep. We talk a lot about Northwestern and Pat Fitzgerald, and there's a few things you can always count on with Pat Fitzgerald. One, he's always going to be a thorn in Iowa's side. Two, they'll be good during even years like this year.

But the third thing is they usually don't play very well in the early non-conference slate. A lot of ugly games early on. They're giving 10 to a mediocre at best Duke team. But knowing Pat Fitzgerald's history of these early season games, I think 10 is just too many points. Will they win? Maybe,

but I think it'll be an ugly game. I think it'll be a relatively low scoring game. I think after watching Nebraska play North Dakota last week and watch North Dakota run up and down the field on them, I think that first whim was more a product of Nebraska's bad, not necessarily Northwestern's good. So give me the mighty Duke Blue Devils plus 10. All right, so Biz is on Iowa minus 3.5.

Alabama laying the 19.5 in Duke plus 10. I got the Clones plus 3.5, also on Bama minus 19.5. And I'm taking the Pitt Panthers plus 6.5. Biz, I've been forgetting here in our first couple episodes in the jump over to lockdown, you got any business beats anymore? Are we going to do that again? We might have to jump back on the train and get that in the future, get back in our old life of the degenerate lifestyle that we had.

We'll start it back up next week. I do have a side gambling question for you before we leave here. As you saw, the other side of the college football craziness last week was North Carolina-App State, 63-61. Total of 124 points in that game. By the end of the month of September, four games, four games,

will Iowa's four games get to 124? Right now they're at 10, obviously. So they got 114 in the next three games. I don't think so. I think we're destined for a low-scoring slugfest here this week. I don't know how bad Nevada is. Some people thought they were going to be one of the worst. But, I mean, that seems destined for 17-13.

So I'm going to say no. Iowa doesn't get there in four games. All right, so jot that down. You've got under 124 for the month of September. Under 124. Incredible. Total. Total points.

Not for a single team either. No, that's total. Under 124. Iowa points in September. I guess that means I have the over. Another tiebreaker. Yeah, exactly. That'll be our second tiebreaker.

All right. Hey, Biz. Been fun as always. Thanks for be our second tiebreaker. All right. Hey, Biz, been fun as always. Thanks for stopping in Des Moines, being a businessman out and about, doing your thing, talking to people, and now you're talking on the podcast world. We'll be back with you next week with more Locked On Hawkeyes podcast with Biz. Tomorrow, myself and LaShawn Daniels will be back. We'll preview the Iowa State game and also get our Big Ten picks of the week

brought to you by BetOnline. Thanks for making Lockdown Hawkeyes your first listen each and every day. Back with you tomorrow. Go Hawks!