Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Hawkeyes Game Plan vs. Auburn, How Iowa wrestling wins a national title

Episode Date: March 16, 2023

Trent Condon is back to talk about the NCAA Tournament draw for Iowa vs. Auburn along with a break down on how the Hawkeyes can beat the Tigers. What can Iowa do to win and what should the game plan look like.A look at NCAA Wrestling and what Iowa needs to have happen in order to chase down Penn State and get to the top.Finally thoughts on the Iowa women's team as they prepare for the first two rounds being played at Carver Hawkeye Arena.Some numbers from Fan Duel on both the men's and women's side of things to make runs in the NCAA Tournament.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Don’t miss the chance to get your No Sweat First Bet up to ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS in Bonus Bets when you go FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We got final thoughts on Iowa-Auburn as the Hawkeyes get ready to face off against the Tigers in the first round of the NCAA tournament. I got the game plan for the Hawkeyes to win this game and punch their ticket to the round of 32. Can Iowa Wrestling get it done against Penn State this week in NCAA Wrestling? The championships are upon us down in Tulsa. What's the path for Iowa to win another national championship? And the Iowa women, they get ready for Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Down in Tulsa, what's the path for Iowa to win another national championship? And the Iowa women, they get ready for Carver-Hawkeye Arena. It's going to be banged out over the weekend, Friday and Sunday.

We'll talk about the matchups for the Hawks as the Lady Hawks, Caitlin Clark and company get ready to get back to a sweet 16. All today on Locked on Hawkeyes. Locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey, welcome in. This is the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. I'm Trent Condon and making our way back from vacation. Thanks for joining us here today.

And thanks for always making Lockdown Hawkeyes your first listen each and every day. We're available wherever you get podcasts. And you can also find us on YouTube. Hit that subscribe button while you're there. It helps us get in front of more Hawkeye fans. A shout out to everybody that's been joining us here and continuing to add to our total of subscribers. A big help.

The analytics love it. The more people we get there, the more Hawkeye fans we're able to talk to. Let's get into it here today. A deep breakdown of the Auburn matchup. I got some numbers I want to throw your way today. We're going to talk about that and our final thoughts as we get ready for the 550 matchup for the Hawkeyes as they face off against Auburn in the first round of the NCAA tournament in Birmingham. Yesterday, it was a lot of talk about no more excuses. Let's go out and get the game. I got

the game plan for you, how we're going to beat the Tigers. We will also talk some wrestling as the Hawkeyes get ready for Tulsa and the NCAA championships that begin here on Thursday morning, a breakdown. What's the path for Iowa to not just finish second behind Penn State as the Nittany Lions are chasing their 10th title in the last 12 seasons since Kale Sanderson got there? What is it going to take for Iowa to ultimately win the top prize? It is a difficult, a steep, steep hill for them to climb. We'll talk about that a little bit here today.

And also Carver Hawkeye Arena. How about you Hawkeye fans selling that thing out in an hour for the NCAA tournament? First round matchup against Southeast Louisiana. We'll talk about that a little bit. Iowa, a huge favorite, but we're not talking about getting to a sweet 16. We're not talking about a lead eight. We're talking about doing something that hasn't been done in 30 years, and that is get to a Final Four.

What's the path look like? We'll talk about it coming up here today on Locked On Hawkeyes. Let's kick things off, though, with the game plan. How are the Hawkeyes going to beat Auburn here this evening? What is it going to take for Iowa to get it done in the game plan? So I got some numbers and did some deep diving into things. So for people, if you've been listening to me for a while out there, you know that I'm a big gambler, love gambling. It's my hobby and been pretty good at it. Successful throughout the years and really successful in college basketball. It is far and

away my number one sport as it pertains to handicapping. I probably should change the way that I do things and maybe invest a little bit more money in the college basketball side as opposed to what I do in football and baseball and all the other sports. We get the NBA in April and May and June, and I'm into that and the hockey and everything else. Probably should be investing a little bit more in college basketball, but been pretty successful throughout the years. And a lot of analytical sites that you hear me come up from time to time,

from the Ken Pomeroy to Bart Torvik and the analytic sites that are out there. Shot Quality is another really good one if you like to dive deep into things. Some of these are subscription-based. They cost money for you to be in there. But if you're really going to be investing, they're very important. And I found some really, I think, important numbers, and even deeper than some of the things we've been talking about yesterday. We broke down a lot of the Ken Pomeroy numbers and a lot of things analytically pointing to Iowa having a great opportunity to win this game.

Auburn right now is favored by one and a half at FanDuel, though the money line is basically even as we sit here early in the morning on Thursday morning, getting ready for the kickoff of the NCAA tournament. But there's a little deeper dive and some things that really jumped off the page to me. So we're coming up with the game plan. First, just some numbers. So numbers overall about this and just how you win this game.

And breaking it down, I think it's very simple. We talked about defensively, you know, what Iowa needs to do. Iowa's not a good defensive team. There's no two ways about it. This team is bad any way that you slice it. This is one of the worst Iowa defenses under Frey McCaffrey. In fact, this is the worst defensive team that he has had that's ultimately turned into be an NCAA tournament team. But a few numbers here, and it comes down to offensively, you know, the way that this plays out. So

here's things that definitely jumped off the page. Iowa shoots in their losses this year, 24% from downtown, 24.1% from downtown while opponents are shooting nearly 40% from three. Well, that's very simple. Guard the three point line. Auburn's not a very good three point shooter and Iowa needs to make shots. It goes without saying, but some numbers that certainly go that. How about this? Iowa this year, when they shoot, 50% from the field. They're undefeated, 10-0.

50% from the field. Going to be difficult to do against this Auburn team that is a good defensive team. How about this, though? They're 14-3 when they shoot, 45% from the floor. That's a number that is realistic. If Iowa can shoot 45% from the floor. That's a number that is realistic. If Iowa can shoot 45% from the floor, I believe they win this basketball game and maybe even win it quite handily.

Iowa also, when they hold teams under 45% shooting, they're 10-3. So there it is. I mean, pretty simple. Keep them under 45%, Iowa over 45%. We're going to win this game. We're marching on to Saturday and playing in the round of 32, 15 and one this year when Iowa shoots 35% from the three point line. That's not a real high bar

to clear 35% from downtown Iowa, 15 and one when they do that. And when opponents shoot under 35% from three, I was 13 to the season. I mean, these numbers just absolutely jump off the page when you take a look at the numbers. Let's take a look at some of the trends on the other side for Auburn. Well, when they shoot over 50%, they're 6-0 this year. Well, as you can see, it's only six games. That hasn't happened very often because they're not a very good offensive team. They are 0-4 when teams shoot over 50% against them.

1-8 when teams shoot 45%. Again, that 45% number. Shoot 45% from the field or better, Iowa wins this game. They are nine and two when they shoot over 35% from three is Auburn. So that's a couple of things. Now, they got a shot blocker inside. So Johnny Broom, the guy that'll swat shots, he is in the top 20 in the country over the last two seasons in blocker inside. So Johnny Broom, the guy that'll swat shots, he is in the top 20 in the country

over the last two seasons in block shot rate. He's going to get in there. Yet, Iowa offensively in the post is really good. And when they run things, not through Connor McCaffrey, we've seen that too much. Connor in the post is not a positive. I like Connor. I like his game.

I like what he adds to this team. It's important to have him involved and he's got to be able to knock down a shot or two and help out at least a little bit offensively, not just passing the basketball, but tends to stick a little bit too much when Connor's posted up there, get it to Rabracha and also get it to Chris Murray inside because more likely broom is going to be on Phillip Rabracha pretty much all the time when they're out there. It is going to be Chris not just doing things from the outside, but also doing things in the paint. One interesting nugget here, Chris Murray, really good as a spot-up shooter,

not good coming off screens, not when he's turning that body. We see that mechanics get a little bit funky with him, the fading that we saw going back to the Ohio State game in the last game of the season. Those are the things that he is not the best at. When he's spotting up, when he's got those feet set, he's a whole lot better there. Spot up opportunities for Chris Murray. Use him in the post. Use both those guys in the post and Rabracha. He's gone up against good shot blockers throughout his career and certainly this season when you think about what he was able to do against Dickinson. You think of what he was able to do a couple of times against Amore of Rutgers. He has played

well against good shot blockers. Get the ball into the post and Philip Vracha, part of the game plan here to pull it off. Here's a couple of other things that jumped off to me when looking at this. Also, post-defense. As I mentioned, Iowa offensively, there's not a whole lot of things that you can look at analytically that Iowa is on the plus side, but they are at least above average as it pertains to what they do post up defense. So let Auburn throw it in there. They want to throw it into the paint. They want to do some things offensively in the paint. You absolutely allow that to happen.

I was pretty good defensively there comparison to the rest of what they do on the defensive. And here's another part. Pack it in, run in zone, doing those types of things. Now, the zone defense can get lost, and we've seen that way too often. It's not just a problem with athleticism on the edge and those kind of things that we've talked about in the past. Going back to Bohannon as a point guard and an undersized point guard. No, that's not what this is with this squad. I mean, you've got a couple of big guards out there in Perkins who obviously is thicker than he is tall, and U.S., excuse me, who has a little bit of height to him. I mean, you have both of those guys.

But Iowa has run this year zone 16% of the time. You might say, well, that doesn't sound like very much. It's the third most zone defense that any team in the NCAA tournament has run this year. The only teams that have played more zone defense than Iowa this year is Missouri and Northern Kentucky, who is basically an all zone team. So there are not many teams that run zone more often. I was not good at either of them, both man or zone. But this is a game against a team that struggles to shoot the ball in Auburn.

You definitely, I think, want to see a lot more zone in this game. And if that leads to them doing a little bit more of the three-quarter court press, keeping the pressure on, Auburn at times has struggled at turnover rate. They have turned it over in bunches this season. Eight of their last 10 games, they have turned it over double digits. So this is one, I think you do that. You drop into a zone a lot more even than normal. I think that needs to be a big part of what they do, a scheme.

Now, on the other side, Auburn, they're going to play man the whole time. And as I was looking at these numbers, I found this absolutely incredible. Teams have only run zone defense against Iowa 3.7% of possessions this season. Why? Because Iowa's elite. One of the best in the country in zone offense. Iowa is 27% better than average against zone defenses. So throw a lot of numbers out there. Here's the game plan. Here's how we beat Auburn. We zone them, we shoot the ball well, we play well

offensively, and we're going to get the victory. That's what it's going to take to get it done. What's it going to take for Iowa to win another national championship in wrestling? Coming after Penn State, always a difficult proposition. We'll talk about that as we roll through here. Also a little women's basketball talk as they get ready for the Friday matchup against Southeast Louisiana. Wrestling and women's hoops as we come back. This is the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast.

Today's episode of Locked On Hawkeyes is brought to you by FanDuel. As we make our way and getting ready to tip it off here this morning, just after 11 a.m. Central Time with the big dance, well, it's the perfect time to download FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. New customers right now,

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You can look at the futures market going on right now. In fact, we're going to talk about that a little bit, what the Hawkeyes have, not just in this game, but looking forward to make a run, make a run to the Sweet 16, make a run to an Elite Eight, even a Final Four. You can bet on that and a whole lot more. And not just the men's game. They got you covered with women's basketball as well.

Plus, FanDuel even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with same-game parlays. So don't miss your chance for your no- your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 in bonus bets when you go to fanduel.com slash locked on. Very important, fanduel.com slash locked on to learn more. Make every moment more with FanDuel. They're an official sports betting partner of the NBA. Trent Conant back with you again here on the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast.

As always, thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen every day. How fun was it last night watching Steve Alford's team get run out of the gym? Bobby Hurley, an unlikable figure himself, but boy, I would take him. 100 times out of 100 over Steve Alford. And that was a fun one to see in the first four and moving into the main bracket in the 64. So as we're talking about the NCAA tournament, we're talking about some numbers here. We got to talk a little wrestling as well.

So the wrestling tournament is upon us. It'll be over the next three days, starting this morning with the opening round. We go into the evening session with the round of 16 all the way through and the path for Iowa. So doing a little back of paper math here and try to figure out a number. And for Iowa ultimately to win a national championship, I think the number that they have to give themselves a chance is they have to get to about 118. That will give them a chance. Now, this is also Penn State can't wrestle to the best of their ability. I mean, it's just, you hate to say it that way, but it's the reality.

If Penn State wrestles at their apex, and Iowa does the same, Penn State's going to win this thing going away. So you need a little bit of Penn State coming back to the pack. So they got their guys at the top, right? They got their wrestlers that are going to be there. They're going to more than likely win a national championship. You got at 133, Romeo Bravo Young. He's more than likely going to run away and dominate that championship at 133. You got Star Carter Starroki at 174, another one there. The other part, though, is not only you hope, okay, those guys are going to win national championships.

Maybe we can cancel that out with two of our own, with Spencer Lee and Real Woods getting it done. So let's say we cancel that out, if you will. And leaving bonus points aside, let's play that game. Those two cancel each other out. So what else happens throughout the lineup? Well, they don't have a 125-pounder. Bo Bartlett, who's at 141, he's a 60.

I mean, you probably have to have him fall short of the medal stand. Same thing for Van Ness at 149. Levi Haynes, probably have to have him finish instead of he's the number two seed. Probably have to have him knocked out decently early, maybe in the quarterfinals. And then something happens where he falls to say you know fifth sixth place something like that same kind of thing as you go a little bit deeper in and then at 184 aaron brooks is ranked number one but he gets the number three seed well you probably need him to leave lead live up to those seedings and finish third and not get to the championship round the same thing with max dean

he's the ninth seed at that crazy 197 pounds. He wrestled Jacob Warner, if you remember, a year ago in that championship. And that's the way that you probably have to have it happen, where he finishes short of being an All-American. That's kind of the path of Penn State taking a step back. How does Iowa take a step forward? We mentioned Spencer Lee, Real Woods, both those guys, the number one seeds. They have to win national championships, I think, for this to happen.

Brody Teske, he's up to the number 23 seed. There was a wrestler that was not able to go at 133, so now he's the number 23 seed. He wrestled the eight seed in the first round. Look, Teske, if he could win a couple of matches for you, even on the backside, that helps every little bit, and that's what it's going to be it's going to be razor thin if i was going to chase down penn state i mean that's kind of the way that you have to look at it and even guys like that even if they don't become all americans you got to score some points max beer it's going to be tough for him now his matchup in the round of 16 was going to wrestle the number nine seed who had to pull out that opens things up maybe a little bit more for him his quarterfinal round matchup if he gets 16 was going to wrestle the number nine seed who had to pull out. That opens things up maybe a little bit more for him.

His quarterfinal round matchup, if he gets there, is going to be incredibly difficult for him. But you need Max Buren, a guy that has been in the blood round three consecutive years. That means one match away from being an All-American. He's fallen every time. And we know everybody is obviously rooting for him to get up on the podium in his final go through. A C-brick.

Can he All-American? He's the 14th seed. Probably going to need something like that to happen. And then he needed a surprise. He needs somebody to make a run. We saw Jacob Warner do that a year ago. He's the 14th seed this year, yet the path for him, it's not crazy. It's a 14th seed, and in wrestling, you rarely see a guy, a double-digit seed, getting to the championship match. Warner, though, I think the path is there for him to make that kind of run, and he has done it time in and time out in March. He has wrestled at his highest, at his apex. Come that time, Jacob Warner, make a run.

That's another way. Tony Cassiope, can he finish third? He's the number four seed. If he loses in the semifinals and gets there against the top seed, can he come back and still get third? That is something that probably is going to have to happen. Can Abisad, with all the talent that we saw and the guy we saw as a freshman that looked like he was on his way to stardom, can it all come together for him? These are the kind of things that are going to happen for Iowa if they're going to win a national championship and ultimately run down Penn State. I think you can see it's difficult, but it is not an impossibility.

And there's places also you can bet on this. Talk about FanDuel and what they do at the NCAA tournament. Circa, in the state of Iowa, they have a lot of wrestling props up right now. So if you're a wrestling fan, you can get involved there and also do a little betting there, which is really, really cool and something that I like to partake in a little bit too on the wrestling side of things. Is it realistic? I don't think realistic is the right term for it.

Is it possible, though? Absolutely, it is possible. Wrapping things up with a little more on the tournament, the NCAA Basketball Tournament. We'll talk about the women's team as they prepare inside Carver Hawkeye Arena. Friday, they get their first shot at 3 o'clock on ESPN. We'll talk about the women's team as they prepare inside Carver Hawkeye Arena. Friday, they get their first shot at 3 o'clock on ESPN. We'll talk about the matchup against Southeast Louisiana. And we'll also talk about some betting odds,

both for the women's tournament and the men's tournament when we come back here on Locked on Hawkeyes. Trey Conner back with you one final time on the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. As always, thanks for making Lockdown Hawkeyes your first listen every single day. Mention some numbers here. Let's take a look at some of those betting numbers from FanDuel. Kick things off. Iowa right now on the money line.

It's minus 110 on both sides. You're laying the juice there. You can get a point and a half, but you got to lay minus 122 if you're going to grab the point and a half with Iowa. How about Iowa, though, to get something we haven't seen since my freshman year of college, the 98-99 season, Dr. Tom's last go-through with the Hawkeyes. Well, you can bet on it, and FanDuel right now, they have it currently Iowa plus 540. That means beating Auburn and more than likely beating Houston. So to do that, you bet on it right now, you get plus 540. Meaning you put a $10 bet down, you'd win $54 back. $64

would go into your account. How about a deeper run? Let's get to Elite Eight for the first time since 1987. You see over my shoulder here, Roy and BJ, those guys are sophomores on that team where my love and my fandom of Iowa basketball went to a completely different level with the 86-87 team and Dr. Tom's first season at the helm with Iowa basketball. Well, at this point, to get to an Elite Eight, plus 880, almost 9-1 for Iowa to make a run and win three games to get to the Elite Eight. And finally, to get to a Final Four, and win three games to get to the Elite Eight. And finally, to get to a Final Four,

something that has not happened in 43 years. I was, well, I was still in womb at the time. Yes, that's right. I was born a couple weeks after that Final Four. I've never seen it. Boy, there was ever a year, and a wide-open year where we have been down on this Iowa basketball team. How about that?

20- 1 right now for Iowa to win the national championship. Over to the women's side of things, a little bit different conversation here with the Iowa women in the number two seed. To make the final four, they're plus 165, meaning your $10 bet gets you $16.50 back in your account. To win it all though, they are 20 to 1 to win the national championship in their matchup against Southeast Louisiana. The 15 seed, the Hawkeye women are a big, big favorite. 30-1 is currently the number at FanDuel for this one. So the Iowa women team, look, it's a layup line.

It's a tomato can in front of them. They'll go out there and they'll dominate. But what happened last year in the loss to Creighton, the frustration in that game, the missed opportunities late, I know the bracket sets up in a way where you see a couple of names there with Florida State and Georgia, and you say, well, boy, this thing could be a little salty again. I just don't see it. Listening to the squad here, the conversations that have been had

going back to Selection Sunday and what they're talking about. It seems like they're on a mission and getting to the second weekend get the shipped out to Seattle again. Have an opportunity out there. I think this team that is just too dialed in to see that kind of upset happen again in the round of 32. Feel great about their chances of doing that should be a really really fun weekend at Carver Hawkeye Arena. You Hawkeye fans the way you sold that thing out.

I was looking at tickets maybe Sunday, thinking, you know what? Maybe I could get over, take my daughter over there, see the NCAA tournament. Well, we're going to do it. It is not going to be cheap. That is for sure. Saw the ticket prices there on StubHub, and they are going for a pretty penny right now to get into Carver for the Sunday matchup, and same thing for Friday. Sellouts there.

Just great job, Hawkeye fans, and this Iowa women's team ready to go. A great article. If you missed it, you can find it on the Lockdown Hawkeyes Twitter account where I retweeted it. Kaitlyn Clark in the Washington Post did just a great article talking about her, her demeanor, what she's meant and her growing up. Just a lot of cool stories there. I saw so much of Kaitlyn at the high school level, called a bunch of her games in high school.

And just to see this and continue to see the growth that we see of Iowa women's basketball and just women's basketball in general because of Kaitlyn Clark. A really cool, cool thing to see. Hey, that'll do it. We will be back with you right after the Iowa men's game here later this evening. We will have an instant reaction podcast for you. We got a ton going on as well on the Locked On Network with your bracket. Listen right now. Locked On College Basketball, our bracket breakdown.

National analysis on everything going on with the 64 team bracket as we have dwindled it down from 68 down to 64. We got our local experts on there. Locked on college basketball bracket breakdown. Everything you need to know to make the most informed decisions on your bracket. Get them in before 11 o'clock today. Find that episode right now, Locked on College Basketball, wherever you get podcasts in on YouTube. The guys right now, Isaac and Andy, they're doing a great job with Locked On College Basketball, wherever you get podcasts in on YouTube. The guys right now, Isaac and Andy,

they're doing a great job with Locked On College Basketball. It is a great listen wherever you are. You can find it on YouTube. You can find it wherever you get podcasts with Locked On College Basketball. We will talk to you later here this evening after the Iowa win. That's right, we're getting it done against Auburn.

Win, lose, or draw, you know I'll be here with an Insta reaction to what happens on the hardwood down in Birmingham. Let's get this victory. Crimson Tide fans, you help us out a little bit. You cheer for the Hawkeyes. We'll be cheering back here in Iowa, and we'll talk to you again this evening. Until then, go Hawks.