Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Hawks have favorable matchups in round 1 and 2 + March Madness day one predictionss

Episode Date: March 21, 2019

Many don't have faith, but the Iowa Hawkeyes could advance to the Sweet 16 this season, and we discuss the reasons on today's call. We also go through each of today's March Madness matchups and give you our predictions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to another episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Sports Network. I'm your host, Andrew Wade, site expert over at dearoldgold.com. And that's the Iowa Hawkeye website where we cover everything black and yellow. We have another preview of March Madness today. I know we've been covering it a lot and I've been telling you this in the last couple shows, but with March Madness coming up, it's a time that we're going to be covering basically just basketball, at least for the next couple days until we see where the men and the women go. But I want to focus again on March Madness today, biggest time of the year for college

sports, arguably. I mean, you could say the college football playoff is pretty big or opening day of the college football season, but I would say college basketball is March Madness is probably the most engaging college sports event in the country at any given point in the year. So that being said on today's show, we're going to be covering Iowa's history in the NCAA tournament and why we think they could make the sweet 16, right? So some of you may be sitting here laughing and thinking, what the heck? Why would I, why would I think Iowa can make the sweet 16? They could barely make it out of the big 10 regular season play without losing a couple

of games at the end of the season. But hear me out, listen to that piece of the show. And then on segment number two slash three, we're going to be talking about the games that are going to be coming up today. That's right. March Madness begins today. So if you didn't fill out a bracket for the Locked on Hawkeyes contest, that's totally fine. Just play along, play along with your friends or whatever you have it.

If you're able to get a email out to me at LockedOnHawkeyes at gmail.com or tweet me at LockedOnIowa, and you can do that before 10 a.m. Central Time. Then we could possibly get you in a bracket if you're able to do that. But if not, just play along and good luck to all of our competitors on winning that $25 Iowa Hawkeye t-shirt. Also, as a side note, if you're wondering what sounds a little funky, dealing with a little bit of a cold here.

So my voice a little bit off, wasn't going to record the show, but felt like it was necessary, especially with the first day of March Madness and whatnot. So I'm going to try to power through it. If you have listened to the show before and you do like the show, make sure you are subscribing to our podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast at. And if you have a smart speaker at home, I want you to try this out. Just tell Siri, Google, or Alexa to play podcast Locked on Hawkeyes.

It's that easy to listen to the latest episode of the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast. And finally, if you're not following us on Twitter at Locked on Iowa, or Facebook at Locked on Hawkeyes, or if you don't have my email address, Locked on Hawkeyes at gmail.com, feel free to follow all those mechanisms or mediums, social media mediums, or feel free to reach out to me via email if you have any questions, comments, concerns, suggestions for the show.

We'd love to hear all of that. So let's jump right into it with why we think the Hawks could make it to the Sweet 16. And I think the easiest thing to point out is the fact that their matchups are relatively favorable. I think when you look at, in terms of the seeding, Iowa got lucky being a 10 seed. Not lucky, sorry. They actually fell into that because they struggled throughout the regular season and in the Big Ten tournament against Michigan.

But the point still stands. Getting a 10 seed was a blessing in disguise. Getting an 8 or a 9 seed would have had them in a matchup was a blessing in disguise getting an eight or a nine seed would have had him in a matchup with a number one seed possibly a duke which would have let's be honest absolutely annihilated iowa duke size and athleticism would have been way too much for the hawks but that 10 seed gives them an opportunity to face a seven seed and then also take on arguably the weakest two seed in the car in the in the tournament and I say that because a couple things a I don't think Tennessee's as good as what they they put out also when you

look at Kempom and doing some advanced analytics basically the last like 10 or 15 champions of the NCAA tournament have all had a adjusted efficiency margin in the top 20 for both offense and defense. I think there was one outlier there. Tennessee is, I believe, top five in offense and 33rd or 34th in defense. So that doesn't necessarily bode well for them. Typically you see, you know, top one, top two seeds have a little bit better of an adjusted efficiency margin. Also, I think Iowa is a little bit underrated coming into this tournament.

All right. They, you know, the biggest thing is they've gotten blown out in the games they lose, but they've won a ton of games. I mean, they've still won 22 games this season. They've beaten some solid teams. They beat an Iowa state team that is, you know, now a, you know, now in the NCAA tournament as a six seed they've beaten Michigan who is a two seed so they beat Ohio State that they've had games this year where they've they've definitely won those they beat Oregon which is a 12 seed so the Hawks have beaten

good teams this year it's just a matter of playing well and I think unfortunately the Michigan game kind of brought people back down to earth. I think after the Illinois game, people were a little bit excited that our offense got going finally. And then against Michigan, people were, you know, back to being negative. Nancy's a little bit upset about Iowa basketball and understandably so. But keep in mind, Michigan's one of the best teams in the country and they have a stout defense. Iowa's performance against Michigan was a little bit, especially in the first game of the season that they played them,

could have been a little bit of an outlier, a little bit of anomaly. Michigan wasn't ready for that game. They're also playing at Carver. Iowa was pretty hyped up. So I think you can take that away as it happens. Michigan's a really good team. Iowa didn't bring their A game. It's fine.

Let's move on. But in terms of why I think Iowa can move into the sweet 16 at, you know, which would be the first time since 1999. All right. So some context behind that, I was in fourth grade, I believe, uh, you know, that was, that was 20 years ago. Joe Weiskamp wasn't thought about yet. Well, it might've been thought about, but he definitely wasn't born. And a lot of the Iowa Hawkeye players were in diapers.

That means Jordan Mohannon was not shooting shots in a regular regulation hoop. He was probably shooting shots on one of those little type of hoops that are about two feet tall with his brothers kind of watching him and laughing. So kind of funny to look back at that. That's been, it's been a long time since Iowa basketball has been in the sweet 16. Again, is it likely this year?

No. Do I think it's possible? Absolutely. And the first thing is that favorable, favorable schedule, the Hawks play Tennessee and Cincinnati. I think those two matchups are actually very good for the Hawks. It gives them an opportunity to actually shoot the three pointer and neither

of those teams are very strong at defending the three. So I think that's a really big advantage for Iowa. And then also looking at the, you know, the stats, I think Tyler Cook and Luka Garza could have a, a strong day offensively down low. These teams are both known for being solid defensive teams,

especially Cincinnati has been getting a lot of hype about being a very stout defensive team. But when you look at the analytics and what they've done, I think it's less about being a strong defense and more about wearing down the pace of play and kind of going at a much slower pace of play. So teams aren't able to score as much. So their scoring defense looks good, but on paper, they're not as good as what people are saying they are.

And Tennessee just isn't as good of a defensive team as some of the other teams in the tournament, especially those top one, two, three, and four seeds. They're actually one of the worst defensive teams out of the top five seeds, out of 20 teams, which I find very interesting. We're going to actually take a quick break, though, and give you a few messages from our sponsors before jumping into a few other reasons why Iowa should be able to make it to the sweet 16. All right.

We are back with essentially kind of segment number two. Just want to quickly pause there though, but Iowa should be able to make it to the sweet 16. And again, we talked about the favorable matchup against Tennessee and Cincinnati. I just, I don't feel like Iowa could have gotten a better draw I really truly think that Tennessee is a weak team for a two seed they probably shouldn't have been a two seed in my personal opinion

and I think Iowa can absolutely do a better job against them they have other you know strong teams similar to how they played Michigan in the first game. I think that is not unrealistic to expect that to happen for the Hawks this year. Also, like I said, Cincinnati, to me, is also not a very strong team, especially offensively. They're not going to kill Iowa offensively, and Tennessee isn't going to kill Iowa from behind the three-point line,

which is huge. That's really where Iowa gets just absolutely annihilated at and I think Tyler Cook and Luki Garza are not super strong down low we saw that against Michigan State Nick Ward really tore them up down low and getting into the paint but what's really been the dagger for the Hawks is that lethal three-point shooting from teams when they play them. Against Ohio State, we had a relative nobody, Justin Aarons, come out and score 29 points against the Hawks, just all from three. So that can really be a dagger for the Hawks. The other thing is, Iowa's playing with house money here. They don't really have anything to lose. I think the most dangerous team is a talented team with nothing to lose.

And no one is counting on Iowa to do anything in this tournament. Everyone's picking Cincinnati. It's essentially a home game for Cincinnati. So why would you pick Iowa in this tournament? That is a great position to be in. When no one actually thinks you can do anything, that takes all pressure away from you. No one's expecting you to win a game. That allows you to just go out and play free basketball. And I think Iowa, out of all teams, has been dealing with a ton of things this year. I mean, they had to deal with the pressures of trying to fix everything from last season, getting that road monkey off their back. They had early Big Ten conference struggles that kind of made people think, well, this team isn't actually legit.

Multiple incidents with Gary Dolphin, the Fran McCaffrey suspension, you know, the pressure of having elevated expectations after winning a few Big Ten conference games and then blowing it. Dealing with the February fade. I mean, there's been so that Iowa has had this year. In the last 15, 20 years, I think when you look at the season, it's hard to kind of put your finger on what you truly think has happened and what you feel like this Iowa basketball team could do. I mean, they've shown really great games, and they've also shown really bad games. So in this game, game though people aren't expecting them to win again it's basically a home game for Cincinnati so why would Iowa be able to

win this like I said there's a lot of reasons that Iowa can win this if you follow our podcast and listen to yesterday's episode we talked about three reasons why I thought Iowa could be Cincinnati so make sure to check that out as well don't want to reiterate some of that stuff but again Cincinnati is a much more beatable team that I think people are giving Iowa credit for. And then finally, having Jordan Bohannon is a huge asset to the Hawks, right? There's not a lot of players who are willing to take that shot. It's very Kemba Walker-esque, kind of a poor man's Kemba Walker. Another guy who I can kind of compare him to is Marshall Henderson from Ole Miss. Another guy who I can kind of compare him to is Marshall Henderson from Ole Miss.

That guy carried Ole Miss to an upset over number five Wisconsin in the 2013 NCAA tournament. He was a scorer. I mean, he had no fear in shooting the ball at any point in time or any part of the court. And that's exactly how Jordan Mohan is. And I think when you have a guy like that, that is a huge asset to your team. Jordan Mohan is not afraid to take up an open or not afraid to shoot the open three. He's not afraid to take on that clutch shot. When you have someone like that who has no fear, who has a bunch of stones in his body,

ready to just make that shot, that's huge. And the Iowa Hawkeyes believe in him. That team believes that Jordan Mohan is going to win the game for them when he gets that ball. We saw it happen way too many times not to believe in it. And, yeah, he missed a few open shots. He missed a few good looks. Everyone's going to do that. Michael Jordan missed clutch shots.

You know, LeBron's missed a ton of clutch shots. It happens. So I think it's important to note that, you know, he, if nothing else, he is, he is just an absolutely incredible player who I've definitely been hard on throughout the season because he's struggled to shoot the ball consistently. And I don't always like the shots that he's taking, but when the game matters, he's the guy you want on your team. And having that kind of guy is a, again again a huge asset and a huge advantage that Iowa has over many of the teams in the NCAA tournament especially Cincinnati

and Tennessee so I'm excited to see kind of how he plays and another thing to keep in mind too is that he has been watching the NCAA tournament for a lot of years all of his brothers have played in the NCAA tournament. You don't think he's ready for this? You don't think he's been dreaming about this for his whole life? This is his moment. This is his chance to shine. So I'm personally excited to see how he does. I think we're going to see a whole new Jordan Mohan

and one that just comes out firing, kind of like last year a little bit. So that'll kind of do it for why I think Iowa could advance to the Sweet 16. That'd be honestly very historic. It'd be the first time in Fran McCaffrey's career. It would also be the first time this century for the Hawks. So exciting stuff. We'll be following that very closely, especially as the Iowa Hawkeyes take on Cincinnati tomorrow morning

in March Madness. But we are going to take a quick break, let you get a few more messages from our sponsors before we jump into just kind of some fun stuff talking about March Madness. But we are going to take a quick break, let you get a few more messages from our sponsors before we jump into just kind of some fun stuff talking about March Madness in general on segment number three. We are back with segment number three. Appreciate you taking the time to listen to the show today.

Obviously love the support and the engagement from you. Love the fact that we have lots of people joining our Locked on Hawkeyes March Madness bracket. I want to take this time to kind of go through the games today. So there's a lot of games going on today. 16 to be exact. Lots of fun from the NCAA tournament. And I'm just going to kind of go through and give my quick predictions, maybe a quick tidbit about what I think about these games and go from there. So the first game up on today's docket is Minnesota versus Louisville at 11.15 a.m. Central Time. And I want to say Minnesota here just because Minnesota has a ton of length. They're in a lot of size, and they're able to disrupt a lot of passing lanes.

And obviously, I think very highly of the Big Ten. So I'm going to go with Minnesota in this game. I think it's kind of a risky pick just because Minnesota has been pretty inconsistent. But I think that's kind of interesting. The second game is Yale versus LSU, the 14 versus the three seed. Yale has been a very popular upset pick and good for good reason. They're good at rebounding the ball and they're good at shooting the three pointer. And if there's anything that we've seen as far as some barriers for not barriers, sorry, excuse me, as opportunities to win and upset teams, it's the ability to shoot the three-pointer because if those teams get hot in that game, teams can't compete

with that. If Yale starts draining the three, and LSU isn't exactly the best at defending the three, so I think there's a really good opportunity here for Yale to beat LSU, but I want to stray away from taking that popular pick. I'm going to pick LSU in this game. New Mexico State versus Auburn. 12 versus the five seed obviously there's usually a 12 seed upsetting a five seed that's a huge thing if you're filling out a March Madness bracket you always want to be taken to consideration Auburn's having an incredible run under Bruce Pearl and New Mexico State is a

straw team they're almost always in the tournament So that's something to keep in mind. But in terms of advanced analytics, New Mexico State just doesn't have what it takes. If you look at the previous historical analysis, there was a guy on Reddit who did some fantastic analysis of what it takes in terms of, you know, Ken Palm's adjusted efficiency margins to actually beat and upset teams.

And New Mexico State did not fill that criteria. So I'm taking Auburn in this game. Then we have Vermont versus Florida State. Florida State, historically known as a football school, is doing well. They haven't actually ever won a NCAA tournament as they foresee. There's always that possibility, of course. I don't think it's going to happen this year, but we'll give them some credit. They could do some damage here.

Playing the 13 seeded Vermont, that should be a pretty easy win for them. I don't expect that to be any sort of contest. All right, number 15 seed Bradley versus number two Michigan State. This should have been the Drake Bulldogs, let's be honest here. Drake blew that game in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament to Iowa. But I'll deal with it. I'm a little frustrated there

by that game, but anyways, Drake should have been this game. It is Bradley instead. They're taking on number two Michigan State. Michigan State is a very good team. I think they got screwed on their seating, having to play in the same area as Duke, but we'll give them the win.

This one is going to be a pretty easy win for them, at least to get to the Sweet 16. When they get to the lead against Duke, that'll be a fantastic matchup, one I'm very excited about. All right, the 11 seed Belmont versus number six Maryland. I'm taking Belmont on this one, mostly because Maryland has been on the downturn. Maryland has not gotten as much publicity

about their fade as Iowa has in the last couple weeks. I mean, they got their butts kicked by Nebraska. They've lost three or four of the last regular season games. I think they're just kind of on a downside here, and I think Belmont's going to come in and kick their butt. Hey, number four, Kansas versus number 13, Northeastern. First of all, never pick Kansas to go past the Sweet 16 because they almost never do. This team is, you know, until they actually do well, I don't really believe in them. I just think that's kind of a standard take I put on Kansas. And this year especially, they've lost a lot of their key guys. So if there is an upset pick from a 13 to 4, I'd probably take Northeastern here. That being said, I think Kansas is going to win and then probably lose in the second round.

the Eastern here. That being said, I think Kansas is going to win and then probably lose in the second round. All right. We have Murray State versus the Marquette Golden Eagles. Number 12, Murray State versus number five Marquette Golden Eagles. And for me, the big thing here is the fact that you have John Morant. And John Morant is likely a top five pick in the NBA draft. He is with Murray State. You have to sometimes take the player who is the best player in that game,

and I think that's John Morant. I'm taking Murray State here to upset Marquette. Marquette's not a bad team, but you just can't pick against a player like John Morant. Look him up if you haven't heard of him. The guy is freaking incredible. I have a few games left of today's bracket. Florida versus Nevada. I'm going to try to go through these a little bit quicker

since I'm taking so long to go through some of my picks, but let's get through it. Florida versus Nevada. Nevada is killing it in terms of some of the Ken Palm advanced analytics. I'm taking Nevada here. I'm taking Nevada potentially to upset Michigan as well. Abilene Christian Wildcats first number two Kentucky definitely taking Kentucky here at least for the first round I think Kentucky is a little bit weaker than they have been in previous years I don't think they're going to go very far but they're going to win

this first game St. Mary's Gales versus Villanova Wildcats St. Mary's is a sneaky good team they're really good from advanced analytics standpoint I can see Villanova Wildcats. St. Mary's is a sneaky good team. They're really good from an advanced analytics standpoint. I could see Villanova going to the final four. And I also could see St. Mary's upsetting Villanova in the first round. If you're like me and you like to risk it, I'm taking St. Mary's here. We have the number 16 Farley Dickinson Knights versus number one Gonzaga. Chalk it up. Gonzaga's winning that one.

Montana Grizzlies versus Michigan. I don't think Michigan's going to go as far in this tournament as a number two seed would suggest, but they are going to beat Montana here. The Seton Hall Pirates versus the Warford Terriers. I'm taking Warford all day long. This team is underrated as a number seven seed. They are kicking butt in advanced analytics. I think this team has some sweet 16 elite eight

sleeper potential from them. So if you are a betting man, and I absolutely am, I'll be in Vegas tomorrow, actually. So I will be betting on Warford. Number 14, Old Dominion versus number three, Purdue. I've kind of come around to this. I really had Old Dominion as an upset pick here just because Purdue's been struggling. But when I looked actually into their Purdue struggles, I just don't see it as much as I think other people are making a big deal out of it. I think Purdue's going to handily win this game. I don't think Purdue's going to advance far. They typically don't in the NCAA tournament, but I think they could beat Old Dominion pretty

easily in this game. And then Baylor versus Syracuse. I personally live by a mantra of never count out Syracuse. Similar to Michigan State, these teams, even if they're seeded poorly or even if they're not doing very well, they do well in the NCAA tournament. I'm taking Syracuse and that famous zone defense by Jim Boeheim. So that'll be a fun matchup, but I'm taking Syracuse in that and likely to potentially upset Gonzaga.

So that's my takes on the first day of March Madness. We'll be giving you more takes on tomorrow's episode in addition to previewing the two matchups for the Iowa Hawkeyes, the men's and the women's team, which is surprisingly a pretty rare thing. I've been seeing some stuff on Twitter that the fact that Iowa made a bowl game and the NCAA tournament is actually pretty rare. I think it's like one of the six teams or seven schools in the nation to do that. And the fact that both the men's and the women's teams are in the NCAA tournament is also a pretty rare feat as well. I think one of like 10 or nine or 10 teams in the tournament. So pretty awesome stuff. I'm super excited for this week and I hope you are too. Go with a little bit more confidence. I know I've been getting a lot of negative flack on Twitter about the

positivity with the Hawks and no one believes in them, but guys just have a little bit of freaking faith. I mean, I, I don't expect Iowa to win necessarily, but I want them to, I'm rooting for them. And it feels like everyone's just already counting the season out and saying, screw it.

They suck. Let's not do that. Let's freaking root for them. It's the Iowa Hawkeyes. They're in the NCAA tournament. This could have been worse. This could be last year where they weren't even in the tournament. All right.

So let's go out there and let's root for the Hawks playing tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon for the men's and the women's basketball games. I'm super pumped. Hope you are too. And that'll do it though for our Thursday morning episode. Again, sorry, dealing with a little bit of a cold here. So voice is struggling about to, about to have my voice start cracking. Need to go blow my nose. Basically I'm a hot mess right now. So I appreciate you taking the time to listen to the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast. Make sure you are following us on Twitter at Locked On Iowa Facebook at Locked On Hawkeyes and subscribing to our podcast wherever you get podcasts at so iTunes Stitcher Spotify or wherever that may be and make sure to check out how to listen to Locked On Hawkeyes podcast with

a smart speaker just tell Siri Google or Alexa podcast, Locked on Hawkeyes. It is that easy. But that'll do it for our show. Enjoy your Thursday morning commute. Enjoy trying to sneak out of work and watch a lot of basketball. I'm going to be trying to do that as well. So good luck with your endeavors there.

Hopefully your boss is pretty cool and allows you to at least stream the game up on your cell phone or something along those lines. I'm hoping that's the case for me as well. But that'll do it for our Thursday morning episode. Have a fantastic day, Hawkeye Nation, and we'll be back tomorrow.