Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - How Caitlin Clark & the Hawkeyes win a national championship, John Bohnenkamp joins the show

Starting point is 00:00:01 The Iowa women's basketball team is going to win a national championship. How? We break it down today. Locked on Hawkeyes. You are locked on Hawkeyes. Your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:29 Hey, welcome in. I'm Trent Condon, and this is the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Lockdown Hawkeyes your first listen every day. We're available wherever you find podcasts. You can also watch us on YouTube. While you're there, hit the subscribe button. Helps us get in front of more Hawkeye fans. Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Make every moment more.

Starting point is 00:00:49 New customers join today. You'll get $200 in bonus bets. If your first bet of $5 or more wins, visit FanDuel.com slash locked on to get started. All right. We're a little bit under the weather. If you're an everydayer, my apologies. Getting to you a little bit late here on a Thursday. And not feeling great.

Starting point is 00:01:07 Not feeling well. It's an illness. A little sickness. My little dude, 40-year-old Jack, he had a cold. And apparently, Dad got it. So we're walking with it. That's OK, though. Because we got a ton to get into, including this Final Four.

Starting point is 00:01:23 And as I said at the top, I was going to win the national championship well Iowa can win the national championship now this is not breaking news and if you know anything about me I'm not about hot takery we're not going to just sit here but we're going to give you the reasons today and lay out the blueprint what it's going to take for Iowa to win the national championship to win two more games and cut down the nets in Cleveland. And for the first time in women's basketball program history, win a national championship. The likely path is as difficult as Iowa or anybody could face. Knocking out the defending champions a round ago in the Elite Eight, here comes UConn, the program for the last three decades in women's college basketball and really women's college athletics as a whole and what Gino Oriyama has built.

Starting point is 00:02:09 And then the likelihood that for the second consecutive year, you're going to have to be this undefeated South Carolina team and all the motivation that's going to be on the side. It's a path as difficult as you're going to find, but it's what's in front of Iowa and they definitely, absolutely can get there. Now, in the simplest equation, Kaitlyn Clark needs to continue to be Superman. There's no doubt about it. Or Superwoman. She has to play at a level that is the elite that she is. This is going to be difficult against UConn. UConn, a good defensive team. One of the best defensive teams you're going to find. They have a defender in Beckers that is very good. They can

Starting point is 00:02:51 go a couple of different routes also in this game of what they're looking to do defensively. You know, do they throw a mole out there for a while? Is it going to be KK Arnold on her for a while? A very good defender. And as a whole, one of my biggest takeaways is looking at some of their individual defensive metrics that are out there. One thing, in women's basketball, we do not have the volume of statistical profiles that are out there on the men's side. There are some numbers out there, but they're not as in-depth as what you saw on the men's side. But one thing jumped off the page, and it's one of the first defensive numbers that I look at. And it is per 40 minutes, just a defensive efficiency number. Very simplified.

Starting point is 00:03:29 I mean, there's not a ton to it. Per 100 possessions, defensive rating, you can find it on Sport Reference. And I use it a lot when we talk about the men's team. I use it a lot for the women's basketball team. 100 is basically average. If you are above 100 as a defender, defender means you're giving up a lot of points you're not a very good defender for uh to show you uh how bad i was defense was on the men's side they didn't have a player under 100 this year but if you're below that you're really good if you're

Starting point is 00:03:58 under 90 we're talking elite well how about this three defenders for this UConn team are in the 70s. That is ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous. Paige Beckers, Edwards, Griffin, who is hurt, are amongst those three that are in the 70s in defensive rating. This is ridiculous. But that's what they are. And that's what they put together.

Starting point is 00:04:24 It seems really good defensively. And that's where the concern lies. So in order to combat that, obviously, Kaitlin Clark has to play at another ridiculous level. And it needs to be not just scoring. You have to look deeper than just putting points up. It has to be efficient. Keep the turnovers down too. Now in the game, going back to the Colorado game, just two turnovers in the game. And we know the way that Kaitlyn Clark plays, the way that she handles the basketball, she is prone to high turnover numbers. Just goes with the territory.

Starting point is 00:04:53 And we're used to it. But some of the turnovers she had, especially in the first half of the game against LSU, they're just careless. They were sloppy. They were lazy. They were plays you can't afford. It's not that you have to play perfect to beat UConn, but you got to play cleaner,

Starting point is 00:05:10 certainly than Iowa did at least during the first half of the game against LSU. That's another component. Keep the turnovers down because that defense is going to be up on you. They're going to be forcing turnovers. They're going to be incredibly difficult to get around and get through. And that means Kaitlin Clark playing at a high level. Of course, you need other people to step up. Hannah Stolke, as we saw, got in foul trouble against Angel Reese. And now here comes Edwards on the other side for UConn. An incredibly difficult matchup. It is going to be another one of those games where we're likely going to see Addison O'Grady out there again. A.J. Edinger saw some minutes.

Starting point is 00:05:46 Sharon Goodman come out there for a couple minute run. Don't be surprised if we see all four post players coming in here. That goes hand in hand with another way to beat UConn. But what Iowa's going to have to do is they're going to have to dictate pace. Easier said than done. Iowa, one of the fastest teams in the country as we know the top scoring team in the country on the other side UConn's 108th in the country in terms of pace so they want to slow the tempo down Iowa wants to quicken it up I think Iowa needs to have this game at

Starting point is 00:06:18 their pace offensively defensively this is an efficient UConn team is a team that does things right does things smart. They're well coached, as you'd anticipate, and they're going to have a game plan too. They are not going to try out the game plans we saw the last two rounds from Colorado and LSU that are still head scratching on what they were looking to do. I don't believe you're going to see a whole lot of miscues defensively on high screen roll action. You're not going to see a lot of miscues defensively on high screen role action. You're not going to see a lot of defenders going underneath screens and leading to Kaitlin Clark having open three-pointers. Don't think you're going to see a whole lot of that. This is going to be a smarter team. This is going to be

Starting point is 00:06:54 a better team. This is going to be a well-schooled team. And because of that, you need to have them play at Iowa's pace in order to win this game. A couple Couple other numbers I want to throw out to you. And that is a little bit surprising to me. Three-point rate. We talked about this with LSU. Don't take a ton of three-pointers. Kind of similar for UConn. Now, not at the same level as LSU.

Starting point is 00:07:20 They take more than LSU. But 198th in the country in three-point rate rate. Now, normally when that is the case, you see teams also not shooting a lot of threes. Excuse me, but they are shooting a lot of free throws. That's not the case also for this UConn team. 267th in the country in free throw rate. Surprising numbers that don't normally marry with each other. Normally, if you see a team that takes a ton of threes and they don't shoot as many free throws and vice versa, this one, they don't get to the free throw lineup ton and they don't take a ton of three pointers. Kind

Starting point is 00:07:54 of an oddity, at least in their statistical profile. But we're talking about how to win a national championship. We're talking about keys to beat UConn and that awaits South Carolina. Look, if we get to Sunday and we get to that spot, and for some people, the validation for Kaitlin Clark, and we're going to talk a little bit more about that a little bit later on here in the show. It's a little silly. I think a little crazy that you believe that that's what needs to happen in order to validate what has been an incredible career. But that aside, if they get to that moment, I think the beginning of that game

Starting point is 00:08:28 is going to be so important. The game plan from a year ago that Iowa had against South Carolina, I don't think it's going to work as well. The way that the South Carolina team is built, they're built in the same vintage Don Staley toughness era that we've seen over the last decade

Starting point is 00:08:43 now with South Carolina, and that's still going to be the case. However, there's a new team outside of Cardozo, who, though she wasn't a starter a year ago, she was a starter, and we saw the rebound advantage that they had a year ago. Getting off to a good start, if they get there, is going to be so important. It can happen. We're two games away from Iowa winning a national championship. I know the expectations were high coming in this year, but now to be on the precipice. Getting ready for this

Starting point is 00:09:12 one. Oh boy. Feels so, so good. Let's get this thing tipped off and we'll have more on the matchup against UConn. Coming up on your feed on Friday as we will break things down with Locked On, a crossover edition with Lockdown UConn, and get a breakdown of everything happening there.

Starting point is 00:09:28 As we continue here at Lockdown Hawkeyes, let's go to the man on the beat. He is John Boenkamp from the Associated Press and from HawkeyeNation.com. We'll talk a little bit about this women's basketball team. We got some basketball news on the men's front to talk about and a little bit more. We'll do that as we continue. This is Locked On Hawkeyes. The sports calendar, well, it is absolutely loaded right now. And FanDuel is making it even more exciting to get in on the action.

Starting point is 00:09:59 Of course, we got baseball starting up. We got the Final Fours here in front of us on both the men's and the women's side. NBA, NHL all coming down the stretch. So much happening, so much going on, and FanDuel has you covered. Right now, new customers get $200 in bonus bets for any winning $5 bet. That's $200 you can use to bet the tourney, MLB, NBA, NHL, and a whole lot more. 200 bucks. How about that? With a winning $5 bet. Visit FanDuel.com slash LockedOn

Starting point is 00:10:30 and make your first bet a big win. That's FanDuel.com slash LockedOn for the big win. FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. Let's talk about the matchup tomorrow night and then potentially look ahead to Sunday, assuming that Iowa can get by UConn. Just, I guess, on the surface, what's your concern about this game from Iowa's perspective tomorrow night? You know, honestly, I have a really good feeling about this game from Iowa's perspective tomorrow night? You know, I don't, honestly, I have a really good feeling about this game.

Starting point is 00:11:09 And I think the only concern you have is if you're not making shots, but they've also shown the capability to defend. And so that's why I'm pretty confident about tomorrow night. I mean, UConn is UConn. And I mean, there is that bloodline there. And Geno's going to try to figure out a way to, you know, he said the other day, you can't stop

Starting point is 00:11:33 Kaitlyn Carter. They're going to try to figure out a way to take everybody else away. So that is going to be the key thing is who steps up besides Kaitlyn? Is it going to be Kate Martin? Is it going to be Sidney Folt or is it going to be, you know, the Hannah Stolke? Is it going to be Kate Martin? Is it going to be, is it going to be Sidney Folt? Or is it going to be, you know, the, the, the Hannah Stolke is going to be some post combination of, you know, the, the two or three they use.

Starting point is 00:11:53 It's, it's all going to be, she's going to have to have help tomorrow. I mean, obviously she's going to carry that game. She is going to, I mean, you saw that in the LSU game, how she took over in the third quarter. There is going to be that time tomorrow night when I think she's going to have to do that. But there's going to be some other players step up. But Gabby Marshall, if she can get going, that's big. And like I said, if somebody else helps her out, Iowa's in pretty good shape tomorrow night. My biggest concern is Aaliyah Edwards inside.

Starting point is 00:12:20 She is tall. She is physical. She is tough. She has also played a lot of basketball. Very veteran in there. We saw that it was a great play out of Addison O'Grady getting her in there and what she did defensively

Starting point is 00:12:33 against Angel Reese. Edwards though is right there, I believe, with Angel Reese in terms of versatility and what she can do. Is this setting up to be another Addison O'Grady? You better have it tonight. I think again, when you look at some X factors, she has to be one of them, and if not her, then A.J. Edgar.

Starting point is 00:12:53 Somebody's going to have to provide some post-help tomorrow night because they're going to try to get Hannah Stelke and Fowl Trump because if you take that away, that kind of neutralizes a little bit of Iowa's offense. So you're going to have to have somebody in that post step up. You're going to have to get some production, no mistakes, and good defense.

Starting point is 00:13:12 So it's going to have to be one of those two. And even if you throw Sharon Goodman in for a couple of minutes just to keep a rotation of players going, I don't know. But you've got to do something tomorrow night to at least have some sort of post presence inside.

Starting point is 00:13:27 Do we anticipate it will be Gabby Marshall versus Beckers? That would be my guess. I don't think you want to put Kaitlyn R because that becomes kind of maybe take her legs away for later in the game. So I don't think you want to do

Starting point is 00:13:44 that, but I do think Gabby Marshall is your best defender. She's your best guard on defense. And I think that's what you have to do. And we just don't see Caitlin Clark get that assignment. I mean, very often where she's going up against the best offensive player, the best perimeter player for any team. So now they're going to probably get a layoff and that's what they do and keep those legs and jump some passing lanes, do those types of things. One thing, go back to South Carolina a year ago.

Starting point is 00:14:10 It was a great game plan laying off the shooters. They came up with something good in that one. Great game plan. I thought against LSU in order to combat what they did and kind of the evolution that they made in the second quarter and running them out of the gym. Who's the brains behind that? So it was Fitz had the one against South Carolina,

Starting point is 00:14:26 and then it was Raina Harmon who had the game plan against LSU. Any idea? Have you heard who has the scout for this one against UConn? I haven't heard, but I mean, I'm sure they've probably got something cooked up. I mean, that's the one thing that has really impressed me about this, this coaching staff.

Starting point is 00:14:44 And I mean, they've always impressed me, but one of the things that's has really impressed me about this, this coaching staff. And I mean, they've always impressed me, but one of the things that's impressed me starting late last year and in, when, when it's come to big games in the post season, they have figured something out and, and it's something, and I think they plan ahead. They look ahead, they look and say, okay, we may get this team at some point. What do we have for them? And, and as much as they like talking about, you know, one game at a time, I do think they think two steps ahead. And I think they've probably been thinking about this for a

Starting point is 00:15:15 while. What do we do here? And so I that's, again, that goes back to my confidence in them tomorrow night is I think they've got something figured out on how to win this game. And I think it's been something that's been cooking for a while because I think that LSU game plan was cooking for a while. Well, yeah, they knew the potential draw and how it would unfold in front of them. I don't think that's crazy to think. Molly D is practicing today. She's on the floor going through a practice.

Starting point is 00:15:42 It may have just wrapped up within the last hour. She is still wearing a brace, but it's not the same one she had in Albany. It's gone down a size. Do you risk playing her at this point, John? I mean, a falter's been so damn good in this game. I mean, it'd be great for Molly D to be able to dress, just to have her on the bench if nothing else. Do you see her playing?

Starting point is 00:16:05 No. And, I mean, if she does, it'll be very briefly. Because, I mean, it's not just the fact she hasn't played a game. She hasn't practiced. Right. And I think that conditioning goes away. So, you know, do they get something out of her tomorrow? I don't know.

Starting point is 00:16:24 You know, is she going to be – I mean, if there is any chance of availability, if she can give him five minutes, she's going to give him five minutes. And so I don't expect it, but it also wouldn't surprise me. But like I said, I just can't see her being much of a factor at all in either of these two games just because she's been out for so long. If they do advance to Sunday, it'll be likely South Carolina waiting there undefeated once again as they were a year ago in the first game of the Final Four. Completely different South Carolina team outside of Cardoza.

Starting point is 00:16:56 This is a completely new group. They're young, they're talented, they're long. They have a bunch of different things here. In a way, though, could that game be even more difficult because of the motivation that Dawn Staley in Southolina is going to have than it was even a year ago oh absolutely and i mean i i mean but i do think south carolina has has they they haven't played their best basketball here in the last couple weeks i mean they've had to kind of scramble and they have and so on one hand that you sit there and think, okay, they're vulnerable.

Starting point is 00:17:25 On the other hand, if I make them a little bit tougher because, okay, they know they've won these close games and maybe there's a little more confidence there now that they've been tested. I, you know, I, it's, it is going to be a very difficult matchup. And again, it's going to be one of those things just like last year where nobody ever plays a perfect game, but you better be pretty close to it to beat them. And I think this Iowa team can do that. I think it is as equipped as last year's team was to do that on so many levels,

Starting point is 00:17:55 mentally, physically, whatever. But it is going to be a very difficult matchup, and there's going to be a lot of really good storylines in that one. If it comes, if it comes to pass. No, no question, John, as much as you've covered this team over the, well, we'll just keep it with, with this group. Do you remember when it was in Kate Martin's career? Was it her sophomore season or when did she become,

Starting point is 00:18:22 start to have the impact on this group that she did? Do you remember? Because obviously, I mean, she was Robin the other night to Caitlin Clark's Batman, if you will. When did she start to fill that role? Do you remember? It took a couple of years because I remember she started out, she was hurt, you know, right before she got here. And it took her kind of a year really to develop. But I mean, it really, it was like maybe that second year,

Starting point is 00:18:49 you started to see a lot of confidence and it took her a couple of years before the ability that they saw in her really started to come out. And I think some of it just had to do with health, you know, but I think she's, I think she is as good as anybody right now. And then that's what they're going to need. Last two times out Colorado. I hated their game plan. LSU, I didn't like what they were doing, and certainly defensively with Haley Van Liff

Starting point is 00:19:12 trying to guard Kaitlin Clark. I don't think Geno's going to make that same kind of mistake. What do you think he has up his sleeve here, what he's going to do defensively to slow down Clark and the rest of the team? I think it's going to be just keeping them out of the inside. Because if she gets going and gets to the basket, then that just really opens up her game.

Starting point is 00:19:31 But if you make it where she's just shooting threes from the outside, she can have bad shooting nights. We've seen that. And so I think, like I said, I think he's going to realize, you know, she's going to get hers. You don't want her to get 40. But you can live with, you know, somewhere between 25 and 35 if you're taking away everybody else.

Starting point is 00:19:54 So I just, I don't know what, I mean, like I said, I think it's basically keeping all of them out of the inside, keeping all of them out of the lane, because that really kind of makes you, that really takes away a dimension of this offense. Is Lisa Bluter getting the credit she deserves for this, particularly this year, John, when they – you know, they got there last year, obviously,

Starting point is 00:20:16 then they had graduation, and they didn't – the portal was not good to them. Maybe they didn't see a fit or whoever they were going after didn't see the fit of coming to Iowa. But we know that the portal did not have an impact on this roster. Lisa Bluter apparently did. Is she getting enough credit for this team? No, because I think she did a masterful job of handling this team

Starting point is 00:20:43 from the beginning, from the end of last season till now, there was, there was all this talk of, Oh, they've got to play LSU again in the regular season. And, and my argument was, you don't want to, you don't want to do that. You don't want to play them. You don't want to waste it. You know, in, in the sense of the, you know, motivation,

Starting point is 00:21:01 you don't want to waste that on a December game. And, you know, she resisted that urge and still played a very difficult schedule. She really didn't go hunting in the portal. They made a couple of efforts, but it was more of, this is what we need and how can this person fit? And she just rolled with what she got and what she did. This team has been as far exceeded. I think a lot of people expected them to be a really good team i don't think they expected this kind of run especially this late season and i think it's just a testament to the fact that she stuck with what she wanted to do i'll let you up over to the men's

Starting point is 00:21:37 side with you john john bowen cam joining us from the ap and hawkeye nation and sanford is testing the waters is it as simple as that or in a, what is considered maybe one of the worst NBA drafts of all time, do you see a real possibility that at minimum, somebody gives him a two-way deal, a second-round pick, and he is off to the league? It's very possible. I mean, it was funny when he declared, when he said the other day he was going to do this, I went and looked at ESPN's mock draft, and again, that's not taking into account a lot of early entries, European players, whatever.

Starting point is 00:22:11 And they had him early second round. And it's like, so if his name's out there like that right now, you never know. But this process does not hurt a player. You go through it, you get a different voice, you get a different voice, you get a different perspective on your game. It has helped so many players over the years with Iowa.

Starting point is 00:22:31 I think he tests the waters. If he thinks there's a chance he could go, he'll take it. I get that. I understand that, but it doesn't hurt anything to go in there and get some feedback from some experts, get a different voice. And I think it's good for him no matter what he chooses.

Starting point is 00:22:50 John Bowenkamp from HawkeyeNation.com, excuse me, and the Associated Press. Great to catch in with John and talk a little Hawkeyes with him and get his perspective on the Final Four matchup. Well, time for predictions. Yeah, coming up tomorrow, we will have, coming up about noon, we will get you the crossover episode with me and Locked On UConn,

Starting point is 00:23:12 and we will have that full, but I got to give you my prediction here. What are we going to see? Is Iowa going to make it to Sunday and the national championship game? What's it take to beat UConn? We'll do that as we continue. This is the Locked On Hawkeyes Podcast.

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Starting point is 00:24:50 Trent Conant back with you one final time on the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast. As always, thanks for making Locked on Hawkeyes your first listen every single day. All right. Prediction time. And I've been waffling. I've been going back and forth.

Starting point is 00:25:04 This is not something that I enjoy doing. For everydayers, you know, I am not what you would call an optimistic Hawkeye fan. And maybe it's the years of scar tissue that have been a part of me, the bad losses, some of my earliest memories, the 86 Rose Bowl after the 85 football season, 86-87 basketball year ending in defeat to UNLV. Maybe that's what shaped what some people would call negativity. I call it scar tissue. I don't like to have the feeling of being set up to fail, if you will. And because of that,

Starting point is 00:25:48 it is difficult many times for me to choose Iowa. I call it my emotional hedge. And I emotionally hedge by, put a couple bucks on the game. Betting on this instance, it'd be UConn against Iowa. But as we heard from John Boenkamp, as I've been looking at this game, the one thing is when I looked at those individual statistical profile numbers defensively for UConn, they really did give me more pause because I was ready to come in here and pick the Hawkeyes and not to dominate the game, not to do even like they did against LSU, but to win. And at that point, who cares if you cover the number right? All we care about is a win.

Starting point is 00:26:30 And I've gone back and forth, and I've been there for a while, and then, boy, even just taking the two and a half or the three that's out there, you want to go that? No, no. Give me the Hawks. Give me Kaitlyn Clark. Kaitlyn has faced UConn twice in her career with the Hawkeyes. And we talked a little bit about why this might be a little more personal for her. Yes, she's had opportunities, but not opportunities like this. Not with a fully formed collegiate

Starting point is 00:26:56 Kaitlyn Clark. I know Jeannie Oream is going to have a great game plan. I know his team is going to be ready to play. But with their lack of depth, the injuries that they've had this year, Iowa's ability to really push tempo against everybody this season. And the other thing, you look at the losses this year for UConn, and every single one of them, it was their defense didn't show up, or not at the same level that it has this year. That's been the calling card when they've taken an L this year.

Starting point is 00:27:24 D wasn't there. Hey, instead of Hannah Stolke getting in foul trouble, how about we get Edwards in foul trouble? Let's get going right away. Everybody doing their thing. Knocking down shots, doing everything. Let's have some fun. Another step on the path.

Starting point is 00:27:42 You avenged your loss a year ago in the national championship game against LSU. Now you get the chance against as accomplished of a program as we know in collegiate sports, the UConn women. And then potentially another shot against number one, South Carolina. Doesn't set up any better. You know, sometimes TV scripts, movie scripts. Oh, that couldn't happen. This kind of feels like one of those, right?

Starting point is 00:28:09 We'll see. We'll see. Again, coming up a little later in the afternoon on Friday, we will have a crossover edition, a big breakdown of Iowa-Yukon. We'll do that for you here on your Lockdown Hawkeyes feed. Also coming up on Friday night into Saturday morning, we will have an instant reaction podcast after this one goes final. Iowa-Yukon. That will be coming up on your feeds and also

Starting point is 00:28:30 you can find it on YouTube. Make sure you have it. Subscribe to us on YouTube. Just hit that subscribe button. Takes just a moment for you. If you're on the podcast side of things, make sure you subscribe. Five-star reviews. It greatly helps us out and helps us get in front of more Hawkeye fans. Thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen every day. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:28:49 Go Hawks!

Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - How Caitlin Clark & the Hawkeyes win a national championship, John Bohnenkamp joins the show

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