Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - How Iowa beats Michigan: Protecting Spencer Petras and big days from Caleb Shudak and Tory Taylor

Episode Date: December 3, 2021

How does Iowa beat Michigan? We talk through all of the keys to the game on today's episode including the protection of Spencer Petras and how to ease the pressure on tackles Nick Dejong and Jack Plumb against the premier pass rush. We also discuss why Dane Belton will be a huge factor in this matchup and how, for the first time all season, special teams are pretty evenly matched. Because of that, it's all the more important for Caleb Shudak, Tory Taylor, and Charlie Jones to have career days. Before we dive into football talk, we break down tonight's away game for the Iowa Hawkeye men's basketball team vs Purdue.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.PrizePicksDon’t hesitate, check out PrizePicks.com and use promo code: “LOCKEDON” or go to your app store and download the app today. PrizePicks is daily fantasy made easy!NetSuiteOver twenty-seven thousand businesses already use NetSuite and RIGHT NOW through the end of the year NetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind financing program to those ready to upgrade at NetSuite.com/LOCKEDONNCAA.Omaha SteaksThe holidays are around the corner and finding the perfect gift is tricky. Omaha Steaks makes it easy to send friends and family an unforgettable gift guaranteed to be loved. Go to Omaha Steaks dot com and enter “College” into the search bar to order The Perfect Gift Package. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back Hawkeye Nation to a Friday morning episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Podcast Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade, and it is quite an exhilarating Friday. We have men's basketball versus Purdue, number two ranked Purdue tonight, and we get to take on number two ranked Michigan tomorrow in Iowa football. We are just over 24 hours away from one of the biggest games in Kirk Ferentz's tenure this is an opportunity to

go to the Rose Bowl the basketball game is a pretty big game as well it's going to really tell us where is this men's basketball team at they were able to get a tough win on the road versus Virginia but going up against Purdue on the road, Purdue is a significantly better team than Virginia. Can Iowa hold its own? We're going to be talking about both those things on the show today. Will Iowa hold its own against Purdue? What to expect? What are the key matchups?

And how does Iowa win versus Michigan? Before we get into any of that, though, I want to first off, thank you all for making the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast your first listen every single day. You can find the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast for free wherever you get podcasts at and also on YouTube by searching Locked On Hawkeyes. And I also want to say this episode is brought to you by Sonos. Sonos is the official sponsor of the ESPN College Football. Go to Sonos.com to learn more.

Thank you, Sonos, for sponsoring us and the show covering Iowa versus Purdue and also Iowa versus Michigan. Before we get into the show, I have one last announcement. You're probably thinking, wow, Andrew, it's Friday morning. Why are you doing this to us? Get to the content. I just wanted to apologize in case I seem a little under the weather. I don't feel good. I'm not going to get political or anything. I got a booster. I don't feel good today. I'm struggling. I apologize. We're going to make it through, though.

We're going to get through this whole show, and it is going to be a good time. I'm really excited for it. So let's talk about Iowa-Purdue. Actually, one more thing. Iowa women's basketball. We had to cover that last night. They were dropping a game to Duke. It's not time to overreact on this team. They had a two-week layoff. They were rusty. They were going on the road against a solid quality Duke team.

And anytime Kaitlyn Clark goes 9-27 from the field and 1-13 from three, you're going to be struggling a little bit against some of these premier teams. Duke, a solid team. They beat Iowa 79-64. But again, Kaitlyn Clark struggling from the field, couldn't get her shot going. Iowa was getting dominated on the offensive glass. Out rebound is 16-10 for offensive rebounds. They committed eight more fouls than Duke. And finally, they only had two bench points. Iowa needs more production from their bench.

We've talked about this before coming into this season. One of the biggest weaknesses outside of defense for Iowa was simply the fact that when Kaitlin Clark left the floor or when the starters left the floor, there wasn't much offensive production coming on. Only two points against Duke. That is something to watch out for as Iowa gets into their Big Ten season that starts very, very soon. Speaking of Big Ten season, though, Iowa versus Purdue, this is going to be a very interesting game. Last I checked, the line was roughly, I believe it was 10.5 points,

or 11.5 points, excuse me, spread for the Iowa Hawkeyes taking on Purdue in Mackey Arena. A couple things to think about for this one. First, Purdue is really, really, really good. When I looked at the schedule, I predicted losses to Purdue both times. I just don't see it against Purdue. They have eight or nine guys that could be starting on most college basketball teams, and they are willing to take a step back and do it for the betterment of the program. Travion Williams is a great example of this. Travion Williams was a guy who was looking at going into the NBA draft.

is a great example of this. Travion Williams was a guy who was looking at going into the NBA draft. Because of Zach Eadie, Travion Williams is on the bench. Now granted, that's a lot about how Purdue plays basketball and what their style is. And Travion Williams is getting his. He's getting shots.

He's getting his opportunities. And he will have a chance to play in the NBA someday. But can you imagine telling a young adult that, hey, you know what? You have a pro career and you're going to come off the bench for the betterment of Purdue to a sophomore. That's tough. That is not an easy thing to do. And then you couple that with the fact that Jaden Ivey might be one of the best guards in the nation.

Fran McCaffrey thinks he could be a top ten pick. Sasha Stefanovic, I wonder when that guy is going to actually get out of Purdue. I'm sick of seeing him play us. Brandon Newman had a great game last year against the Hawks. So a lot of guys who can really do some detriment to the Iowa basketball team. And when you look at this game, I think there's a couple of ways Iowa wins. If they get hot from three, not just Jordan Bohannon, I mean everyone's hot from three. If they get hot from three, not just Jordan Bohannon. I mean, everyone's hot from three.

That's the way good teams or below, you know, under-matched teams beat teams like Purdue. You have to be able to shoot the three. Spread out the floor a little bit. Then you can have Keegan Murray attacking a bit down in the basket. You have to draw fouls. Get those bigs in foul trouble. And then finally, defensive energy is always a tough one when you're talking about Iowa basketball, but they have to close out on Purdue's three-point shooters. Sasha,

Brandon Newman, Isaiah Thompson, they've all been lights out from three. We've seen Sasha burn Iowa before. Brandon Newman, I'm pretty sure, I'll have to go back and look at the stats, burned Iowa last year. Iowa needs to close out on those shooters and not give them easy buckets. We've seen Iowa get beat because teams were just allowing Luka Garza to get his, but were closing out on threes and not allowing Iowa to be a deep perimeter shooting team. Same thing here. Now, Travion Williams, Zach Eadie, they are very, very good. Very, very good bigs. Zach Eadie, a guy, as Fran McCaffrey said, has more touch around the rim.

Travion Williams, a fantastic passer. So it's not like these guys are one-trick ponies going to bang down low against Phillip Abracha and undersize Phillip Abracha. But nevertheless, you have to kind of pick your poison here. Let Zach, let Travion beat you, and then you get hot from three. There's an opportunity there for Iowa to get a very surprising victory against Purdue going into the Iowa football game next or tomorrow as well. So a lot going to be a lot of interesting stuff here. Purdue defensive wise is going to come out Iowa.

They're going to be playing some full court. They're going to be putting a lot of pressure on the Hawks. Likewise, I think Iowa needs to get back to that. Against Virginia, we saw Iowa shorten up their bench, which is very shocking considering the words of encouragement that Fran McCaffrey had for Peyton Sanford, his defensive ability, and the fact that Peyton Sanford has been shooting the three really well this year. Didn't get a lot of playing time in this game. So what is Iowa going to do? Are they going to expand the bench, allow some guys like Riley Mulvey and Joshua Gundelay to come in, or are they going to keep it short like they did against Virginia?

And when they keep it short, they're moving more to a zone defense, which we've seen in the past Iowa struggles in. They have not done well historically the last couple years with that zone defense, and especially they struggle with closing out on good passing, good three-point shooting teams like a Purdue. That is where they get in trouble. You get one guy hot, all of a sudden he ain't missing. That basket becomes the ocean and he's not going to miss. So that'll be really interesting to me to see how this game all shakes out for Iowa.

Again, this is really, I don't expect them to win. I'm not even putting money on this game. But if Iowa shows up in this game, it's going to give me a lot of, a lot of really encouraging things to look at going forward to the season. Purdue is one of the best teams in the nation. Iowa is still kind of gelling, figuring some things out. I know they said the chemistry is really strong there and I can see it at times, but they still have a lot of things to work on and they can keep this close.

I'll be encouraged going forward for the rest of the season. If they somehow win, I'm jumping on that bandwagon. Let's go Hawks. And we could be a, you know, a big time seed, the NCAA tournament.

So it'll be really interesting, a very good wake up call slash indicator of where Iowa basketball is. Virginia was a good first test. Purdue, a significantly better test than Virginia. So that's all going to be taking place tonight. So make sure to tune into that. We'll try to cover that game.

Maybe I'll drop a bonus episode tomorrow if I'm feeling better. Maybe we'll do something on Sunday or Monday. I'm not sure yet. It all kind of depends on what happens for the Iowa football game and how I am feeling. But either way, obviously be tuned in to the podcast and to the YouTube channel

if you want to listen to all of our latest content. You can find it by looking for Locked On Hawkeyes. Coming up, though, we're going to talk about the Iowa football team. What does Iowa need to do to win in this game? Before we get to that, though, I am going to talk to you a little bit about betting lines. Iowa currently a 10.5-point underdog. I already told you I'm not betting on Purdue,

but I am going to be betting on Iowa versus Michigan, and I'm going to give you some stats. They're going to tell you why you should be betting on Iowa versus Michigan, and I'm going to give you some stats. They're going to tell you why you should be betting on Iowa versus Michigan, and you can bet at betonline.ag. They have you covered for all the seasons, for all the sports, with more props, odds, and lines than ever before as football season continues to march to the playoffs. BetOnline remains your number one spot for all the sports action this season,

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BetOnline.ag fastest and the easiest way to bet on all your favorite sports. BetOnline.ag where the game starts. And well, thank you all for making the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast your first listen, even on this day where I'm not feeling exactly great. I really do appreciate you all tuning in every single day, making us your first listen. And if you aren't, why not? You should be. Check us out. Find us wherever you get podcasts at and also on YouTube by searching Lockdown Hawkeyes. We have daily episodes dropping Monday through Friday for free. So let's get into it. We talked with Isaiah Hull, host of Locked On Wolverines yesterday. Very interesting conversation.

I'll be completely honest. I think he might be overvaluing what Michigan brings to the table. I know he even said like Iowa is a team that does concern him, but these are young college athletes and they just came off their biggest win in the Jim Harbaugh area era. Excuse me. How do you not expect some sort of letdown for that? If Michigan shows up and they take care of business, I'll admit I'm wrong. I will absolutely admit that I am wrong here,

but I just, there's a reason why professional bettors bet against teams like Michigan in these spots. It's a look behind, look ahead spot. A huge win, a very emotional win, and then they have to go take on an Iowa team that people say isn't very good. And if they beat them, that's the only step left before they get into the college football playoff, which is theirs for the taking.

That is a tough spot to be in for a Michigan program. And it'll be really interesting to see what happens in that first quarter. If I'm Iowa, all the more reason to start off strong. Pull out a few tricks out of the playbook. Pull a few things out. Get on the board early. If there's ever a time to be creative and use the play you've been wanting to use all season, it is absolutely in this game. If Iowa comes out and punches Michigan in the mouth, figuratively, of course, a lot,

and puts one or two touchdowns on the board before Michigan realizes what's happening, that changes the entire flow of the game. It is tough to come back from that. Now, Michigan is not Nebraska, all right? Nebraska has one issue, and all of a sudden they collapse and they act like they've never played football before. But this is a college football team, and any time you get punched in the mouth like that, it sets the tone for the game.

Look at Iowa versus Purdue. Purdue came out firing. They drove down the field, three quarterbacks, put a touchdown on the board with their non-running quarterback who ran it in, and it didn't feel like Iowa really had a chance the rest of the game. I personally mean, I was in there thinking maybe they have a chance. Maybe after the first half they have a chance, but there was really, it just felt like Iowa was never in that game

from start to finish. The people I talked to that were at the stadium also said as much. The crowd was not in it. It was emotionally draining the week before beating Penn State. It was emotionally draining for the fans. Purdue came out and they laid it on Iowa. Now it's Iowa's turn to do the same to Michigan for a shot at the Rose Bowl. And when I look at how these players are responding,

they're not talking about Nebraska. All they care about is this game. And they realize they are being overlooked. They realize people don't think they can do it. They realize no one respects the Iowa football team. A lot of people don't think they should be in the Big Ten championship game. And people are even going as far to say if they somehow shockingly beat Michigan, it's chaos and this is why the college ball playoff system is bogus because Iowa has a chance.

You better believe those players realize that. And when your backs, when people are counting you out already, when people already think you lost the game, when people think you have zero chance, you have literally nothing to lose. That is a very dangerous position for Iowa to be in. You look at that Iowa-Ohio State game or the Iowa-Michigan game where they beat a top five ranked Michigan at Kinnick.

Iowa was not the better team in those games. But they came out and they wanted it more. Now, yes, Isaiah can talk about the fact that Michigan wants it more. Yeah, clearly Michigan wants to go to the college football playoff. But there's a difference inside between wanting it more, in my opinion. And I'm not going to speak for every Michigan player. I think the Iowa players realize what's at stake. And, again, they're playing from an advantageous position.

No one thinks they can do it. Go out and play your game. Prove them wrong. You're in a win-win situation. If you're Michigan, it's kind of a half-win-lose situation. You're in the college football playoff. If you didn't have to play Iowa, you're there. If you beat Iowa, everyone thought you were going to.

If you lose to Iowa, you're the joke of college football again. Those are things you have to think about with this game. Other matchups I want to talk about as well is Jack Plum and Nick DeYoung versus Aiden Hutchinson in the Michigan defensive line. Now, it's not just Aiden over on the Michigan side. Obviously, this Michigan defensive line is one of the better ones in the nation. They're producing a phenomenal sack rate, actually, and I'll try to pull that up while I get a chance. But this is a team that has done a very, very good job of putting pressure

on the quarterback. And with Mason Richmond having the flu, he didn't play as much last game. On the depth chart, you see now Mason Richmond is number two. You have Jack Plum and Nick DeYoung starting out, which are really the two guys that Iowa wanted to go with originally to start the season out. I have been very tough on Jack Plum. I have not been overly impressed with Jack Plum for most of his tenure as the starting tackle for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Nick DeYoung has also struggled a bit as well. These last three games, granted, against not as good pass rushes, they have performed well. That is the biggest matchup in this game. If Iowa can give Spencer a little bit of time, just a little bit of time, Iowa's offense can move the ball a little bit. Now, I think they're going to take a lot of pressure off of Spencer by really focusing on the run game,

by running a lot of the inside zone type of stuff, getting some misdirection going with Arlen Bruce to take some of that pressure off, set the edges as well from an offensive standpoint. But when Iowa goes into a true passing set, you better be worried about Aiden Hutchinson and David Ojibwe. I always struggle saying his name. 12 sacks for Aiden, 11 sacks for David.

That is not an easy matchup for Nick DeYoung or for Jack Plum. That is going to be the biggest matchup in this game for Iowa, in my opinion. If they can win that matchup, if they can just slow them down. And when I say win, I mean don't allow Aiden to go off for six sacks or 14 or 15 pressures like he did against Ohio State. Slow him down just a little bit. One of the things, now Iowa's not this kind of team, but one of the things that Iowa State used to do against A.J. Epinesa was roll Brock Purdy away from A.J. Epinesa and do a lot of quick passes. We haven't seen as much of that quick pass in the offense as of late.

We've seen a few, tunnel screens and whatnot, but not as much as we've historically seen under Iowa. So that'll also be something to watch out for. Do they do things to get the ball out of Spencer's hands quickly and into their playmakers? And do they roll away from Aiden Hutchinson? Now the problem is you're rolling away from Aiden Hutchinson, but you're going right into David Ojibwe.

And that is not something that a lot of teams have the blessing of saying, we have two defensive ends that you really can't run away from. So it'll be interesting to see how Iowa handles that matchup. A couple other matchups I'm really interested in and watching in this game, cornerback tackling and the linebacker pursuit. Against Ohio State, Michigan did a phenomenal job of running to the outside, running around the tackles and really allowing their, or relying on their wide receivers to get in set blocks on Ohio State's cornerbacks, trusting their running

backs to beat the linebackers to the edge and turn up field. That is going to be really interesting for Iowa in this game. We've seen them have some difficulties when that takes place. Against Minnesota, that is the obvious one that Iowa was really struggling with. If I'm Michigan, I'm going back to some of that stuff. Now, granted, Iowa did a much better job in the second half stopping Minnesota's rushing attack, but they can't afford to have an entire half where they cannot stop Michigan's rushing attack. They need to slow it down and then eventually stop it and allow or force Michigan to throw the football. Now, when talking to Isaiah, he felt like they were really consistent from a rushing perspective with where they were running the football.

That's wrong, to be completely frank. They have 88 attempts to the outside on the left, 92 attempts to the outside on the right. Their next highest was 62 up the middle. So they do like, they favor the edges. They favored them against Ohio State. That means that Riley Moss, Terry Roberts, Jamari Harris, Dane Belton, Jack Campbell, those guys are going to be really, really crucial to stopping Michigan and slowing that rushing attack down as they try to get around the end. Coming up, we're going to get into the rest of these matchups

and then give you kind of an overview of the betting piece of this. Before we get into any of that, though, I do want to remind you that it is holiday season, and you can grab a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. It's tough to eat healthy these time of days. Everyone's having sweets around. You might want to have a sweet. Grab yourself a sweet that's actually going to be good for you. And that is a Built Bar filled with so much holiday goodness, rich with decadent flavors, covered in chocolate, and amazingly low in calories, sugar, net carbs, and fat, plus high in protein.

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That's Bilt.com, promo code LOCKED15, L-O-C-K-E-D-1-5, for 15% off your next order at BiltBar.com. All right, y'all, let's get into it. Our final segment of the day. We're going to go through some of these matchups and then talk about betting-wise. Another matchup is Dane Belton versus The Slot. Dane Belton, a first-team, all Big Ten defensive back,

much deserved. What I think is going to be really interesting, as Isaiah mentioned in his part of our crossover episode, Michigan likes to find mismatches. To be fair, a lot of teams like to find mismatches. Dane's going to be huge in this aspect, though, because they're going to try to get quicker guys matched up in the slot against Iowa's linebackers,

and Dane Belton's going to need to take at least one of those guys. Dane Belton's going to be on the field. He's going to be a huge, huge asset. The goal is to get Iowa in as favorable of a position as possible, and a lot of that's going to be Dane Belton and where he lines up. Turnovers is going to be huge as well. In the 2015 game, what hurt Iowa the most was the turnovers. You can't have that.

In a game like this, there is no margin for error for Iowa. They have to play almost a perfect game. Now, going up against Michigan, Michigan is not exactly a turnover machine. They are not forcing turnovers at a ridiculous rate, but they're also not giving the ball away at all. They are top 10 in giveaways this year. Michigan doesn't give the ball away. Iowa does take the ball away.

What is it going to give here? And are we going to see a very conservative game where there is no turnovers? Are we going to see a very sloppy game? Again, coming off an emotional win for Michigan, coming off a ridiculous come-from-behind win for Iowa. That'll be a very interesting matchup. Whoever wins that turnover battle more than likely is winning this game because I don't see a lot of advantages in other aspects,

especially in special teams. Now, Iowa has the slight edge, I would argue, in kicking, punting, and returning. But out of all teams in the Big Ten i would say michigan matches up the best with iowa in the special teams department the fact they have a lou groza award our finalist now granted i think the lou groza award is garbage but jake moody not a bad kicker all around they have a solid return man which is their number two running back their punter is also solid as well this is this is an opportunity for iowa though let's see our special teams shine.

We've been doing it all year. We know we have one of the best special team units in the country. We're going up against one of the best special team units in the country. Can we win that battle? That has been the difference maker in a lot of games for Iowa this season. Can it be the difference maker in this game? That'll be really interesting to me to watch as well. So getting into the betting

piece of this, Iowa at 10 and a half, I love, I absolutely love that line. There is not a lot of love for the Hawks coming into this game. And I just love the fact that Iowa is a 10 and a half point dog. I've already put money on Iowa to cover that. Now I put a little bit of money on Iowa to win just because it'd be a lot of fun. And odds were I believe like plus 360 when I got it up. So you're going to make nearly four times your money back on Iowa winning that game. But I do believe Iowa covers the spread. And I'm going to give you a few stats and then kind of give you some non-data related items I think will kind of impact the decision making here. Since 2003, Iowa is a top 30 team and performing against the spread as an underdog. They have the 14th best winning percentage when an underdog. They have a 16th best winning

percentage as an away underdog. They are top 20 and covering against ranked opponents. And since 2015, they're 10th against ranked opponents and top 15 against the spread. That is not, I mean, to be fair, it's still like a 50-50 shot on what their percentage is there, but there's a reason why teams don't like playing Iowa when Iowa is overlooked and undermatched, or overmatched, excuse me. This is a team that can step up and play their game.

They will play physical football, and they are going to want it. And these are guys who have been overlooked. These are guys who are not getting the love and the credit, and they are tired of it. And this is an opportunity to prove themselves. You don't think Riley Moss has something to prove in this game? He's defensive. He's the Big Ten defensive back of the year.

Yet he was a two-star gray shirt that wasn't recruited by hardly anyone else. You don't think he has something to prove going up against some of these potential NFL draft picks? You don't think Jack Campbell from Cedar Falls has something to prove in this game? Or Seth Benson, a guy out of South Dakota? I mean, this is a team. Jack Kerner's a walk-on.

Former walk-on, excuse me. Dane Belton, a lightly recruited defensive back. These guys have something to prove playing against Michigan. Tyler Goodson was an afterthought by Michigan and only given an offer after they lost out on another guy. These guys have something to prove. They have something to want, and they've never beaten Michigan. So if nothing else, I am taking Iowa to cover this spread, 10.5 points. It is going to be

interesting, and I think it's going to be a lot closer than people think, and it's going to be a lot of fun to watch. The one thing I will say, Hawkeye fans, is just enjoy it, though. Enjoy the fact we made it. Enjoy the fact that we are here, and we did not expect to be here six weeks ago. Whatever happens, this team has battled back despite a lot of issues that probably should have crippled them entirely. They have battled back to get to this point. And I'm pretty happy with getting to this point, but I want to see them go to the Rose Bowl. But again, I'm just going to be happy with the fact that they put up a good fight, make it a good game. If we win, awesome.

If we lose, you know what? I'm proud of what they accomplished this season. It was a fun season to watch, and I hope to see it extend out a little bit more in the Rose Bowl. So more to come on all that. We're going to be joined by LaShawn Daniels breaking down this game after it takes place, hopefully after a W. And if it is after a W, I'm not going to have a voice.

I'm going to be so pumped up on, on that Sunday morning. So stay tuned for that as well. Again, you can find us wherever you get podcast at and also on YouTube. And if you want more help betting on other games throughout this weekend, check out the Locked On Bets podcast hosted by your boy Q and handicapping expert, Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, breaking down a couple of games every single day that you need to place your money on at betaline.ag.

Thank you all for tuning in to today's episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Have a fantastic Friday, y'all. And as always, let's go Hawks.