Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - How Iowa beats Northwestern, why Tyler Goodson will be critical, and will the D regain its swagger

Episode Date: November 5, 2021

The Iowa Hawkeyes take on Northwestern tomorrow and we are bringing you a full preview. Will Tyrone Tracy Jr get more involved in the offense and can this offense break the trend of starting slowly against a team that surprisingly starters even slower? What about the turnover drought the Iowa Hawkeye defense is currently in? Can it be broken against a team without a clear answer at quarterback? We also give you the keys to the game and tell you why Tyler Goodson should break 100 yards with ease against the Wildcats before giving you the final prediction. Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.PrizePicksDon’t hesitate, check out PrizePicks.com and use promo code: “LOCKEDON” or go to your app store and download the app today. PrizePicks is daily fantasy made easy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back Hawkeye Nation to a Friday morning episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Podcast Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade. Excited to be back for another show today. And I'm excited that we get Iowa football tomorrow. Let's right some wrongs.

Let's get back on the winning streak. Let's take down a nemesis in Northwestern and get back into some happy spirits across the Iowa football fan spectrum. Before we get in anything for today's show, which we are going to be breaking down what to expect in this game, the key storylines, all the keys to the game in general, and our predictions. We're also going to give you who do we want to win with the new college

ball playoff rankings coming out. We want to tell you who are you rooting for this weekend? That is all coming up on the show today. And I want to thank you all for making this lockdown Hawkeyes podcast, your first listen every single day. You can find the lockdown Hawkeyes podcast for free, wherever you get podcast at, and also on YouTube for free by searching locked on Hawkeyes.

And also this awesome episode covering who you need to root for and what you should expect in this Iowa versus Northwestern game. This episode is all, it's all brought to you by McDonald's. Proudly serving communities since 1965, McDonald's has always been more than just a place to get tasty, affordable food. It's an unofficial community center. A big thank you to our friends at McDonald's for always being there. I am loving it. So let's get into it again. We're debuting a new segment at the end of the show, Who do you root for? But before we get into that, I want to do as we do every single Friday, begin breaking down the storylines in this game, Iowa versus Northwestern. Coming into this matchup, Iowa favored by 12 points at betonline.ag. The

over-under is set at 40 and a half. So we're going to be talking about that when we give our predictions. But what are the storylines for this game? Well, the easiest one is, can Iowa get back on the winning track? We've seen this happen the past couple years. Iowa starts out strong. They drop a couple. All hell breaks loose. The world is ending.

And then Iowa closes out the season strong. Especially with a team like Minnesota up next, you need to get a win here. You need to get some positive momentum. You need to work on a few things that have been struggling. As some other people have noted, the offensive line looks like they're almost playing without confidence at this point. They're not even relying on technique. It's almost like they don't know what to do. And granted, playing a 3-4 defense in Wisconsin is tough for anyone,

especially a young offensive line, but you want to see this offensive line get a bit more confidence in themselves. You want to see this offense get a bit more confidence in itself as it has only scored 14 points in the last two games. And you would like to see this defense play with a little bit more swagger. Now, they have been playing really well, all things considered. I thought Wisconsin, outside of the first touchdown drive, they played a really good game. Purdue, outside of David Bell, I thought they played a pretty good game as well. Now, there were several mistakes there. Definitely their worst performance of the season, but the

worst performance of an Iowa football season is arguably the best performance of probably 100 teams in college football. So you want to see them get their swagger back, though, and really dominate the heck out of a Northwestern squad that doesn't really have a great identity on offense. They don't have a quarterback, and they just like to run the ball. However, that's perfect. Iowa can load up in the box and stop the run and force Northwestern to pass. So the first thing, though, again, is Iowa needs to get on the positive momentum track here. They need to get a W. Can they get a W? And how do they do that? Well, they got to start strong. We're going to talk

about this later on, but they really need to start this game off strong. They have really struggled at doing this. Iowa is 107th in first quarter points scored. Now that improves. They've gotten up to 50th in terms of the overall half and scoring at 14.9 points, but 107th in the first quarter just doesn't get it done. Meanwhile, on defense, they are 70th in points allowed. Not ideal either in the first quarter, so they have made it a habit of getting behind teams early on in games, and they have to work their way back. We even saw it last year against Northwestern. They get up to a big lead. Northwestern claws its way back and ultimately wins that game. It would be great to see Iowa come out swinging. Iowa build a 14-21 point lead going into the second half. That's

what I would like to see in this game. And I would like to see Iowa keep their foot on the pedal and not lay off. They did that two years ago against a very bad Northwestern team. I believe they won 20 to nothing. They basically took their foot off the pedal and said, we're just going to play this game out because we don't care about Northwestern. We don't want to show anything. We don't want to get hurt. But I think Iowa needs to do a few things to get people excited, to get the team rolling in this game. They're doing it against a good team. Northwestern is 108th in points per game in the first half at 9.4.

They have gotten off to some horrendous starts. Against Minnesota, they were down 10-0 before you could blink your eye. So there are opportunities here for the Iowa Hawkeyes to get things rolling very early on. It's going to come down to how well can their offensive line play, though. That has been the talk of the last couple weeks. This offensive line is incredibly young. They have Tyler Linderbaum, and he's the only one with significant amount of starting experience. You look at the tackles, we're starting to figure it out a little bit more in the interior,

but you look at those tackles, and last year we lost three tackles. Alaric Jackson, Quade Kronk, and Mark Kallenberger. We're replacing them with Mason Richmond, a redshirt freshman, Nick DeYoung, a former walk-on, and Jack Plum, a converted tight end. Now that's not a recipe for disaster right away, but when all three of those guys are playing inconsistent football and struggling at different points in time, it makes it very difficult on Spencer Petras, week in and week out.

And Mason Richmond has definitely gotten better, but there's a lot of learning pains and growing pains he's going through. Jack Plum and Nick DeYoung haven't figured it out to this point yet because the coaching staff is rotating them in and out. They can't figure out which guy can get it done in a game-in and game-out basis. So this is a really big opportunity for them, taking on a Northwestern squad that doesn't have the best defense. Now they have a better pass rush that I think people want to give them credit for. To this point, 98 pressures, 20 sacks, a 68.7 pass rush grade

according to PFF. But there's an opportunity here for Iowa's offensive line to begin playing with more confidence, to think a little bit less and just play the way that we know they can. Mason Richmond was a big time recruit. He can play high level football. He just has to get some of that confidence back. Iowa also needs to figure out what are they going to do at that right tackle spot. Is it Nick? Is it Jack? Or is it someone else? Kirk basically said it's going to be down between Nick and Jack

in his press conference earlier this week. But, come on, you've got to figure this out at this point. We're getting into a game against Minnesota where they do have a solid pass rush. Nebraska does have a good defense. We need to figure things out before we get there, and I think we can't do it in this game. Not only does Iowa need to start strong, they need to close out the game as well. It hasn't been a problem when they've had leads this year,

but it has been a problem in the past couple years, especially last year against Northwestern specifically. And the turnover drought. Oh specifically. And the turnover drought. Oh my gosh, the turnover drought. Iowa hasn't forced a turnover since Penn State. You will not win a football game the way Iowa plays offense without forcing a turnover. Northwestern's going to give Iowa some opportunities

depending on which quarterback plays. They are 68th in giveaways to this point. But Iowa needs to force a turnover or two to help this offense out, give them better field position. And it goes down to which quarterback is going to play. Is it Ryan Helinski or is it Andrew Marty? To me personally, Andrew Marty is the guy who gives Northwestern the best chance to win, but a very welcoming Ryan Helinski. Pat Fitzgerald has not figured out what that quarterback rotation looks like

or what that starting quarterback position looks like. And that is going to be a big thing for me as well. If Andrew Marty's in that game, it makes the game plan significantly different. Andrew Marty adds an element on the ground with his legs. He also can throw the ball as well, and he likes to take a few more shots deep, whereas Ryan Helinski likes to stay in his little L shape, right? Zero to 10 yards in the middle and five to 10 yards on the right side. That's where Ryan Helinski likes to target.

So really, which quarterback plays can kind of be an indicator of how much this defense can feast. And finally, will Tyrone Tracy get the ball? I mean, this has been a subject of conversation for the whole season, but I looked at it and I didn't even realize this. He hasn't had more than one catch since the Kent State game. Overall, the season 13 catches for 89 yards and a 6.8 yard per catch average in one touchdown. Very, very pedestrian numbers for your number one wide receiver, the guy who has been the stud of the Iowa offense coming into this offseason. We expected more from Tyrone Tracy Jr., and we expected more from him within this offense.

And that's not to say Tyrone isn't living up, although numbers-wise he is not. It's more to say Iowa's got to do a better job of getting him the ball or figuring out what is going on. If something's not working, then you know what? Maybe make a change. But I feel like it's a mix of both. And we need to see if Tyrone Tracy can get the ball a little bit more because clearly he's getting frustrated. His family's getting frustrated. That is a storyline that I am going to be following in this game. Coming up, we're going to get into the keys for

this game. We talked a little bit about it, but I want to give you a little bit more detail as to what to expect in this game and how Iowa can win this game and ultimately what my predictions are. But I do want to tell you, though, this episode of Locked on Hawkeyes is brought to you by McDonald's. Proudly serving communities since 1965, McDonald's has always been more than a place to get tasty, affordable food. It is a place where friends and family can come to connect. Honestly, every stage of my life, McDonald's has been a big part of it. High school after games, we would always go meet up at McDonald's. That was the hangout spot.

One of our high school classmates, her dad actually owned the McDonald's, so we were always there. In college, after a late night of studying or a late night of going out, we were always at mcdonald's see are there afties later or how much did you hate studying for that big marketing exam kind of a joke there who has a big marketing exam and then even now in this day and age my wife is pregnant we are there probably three to four times a week heck last sunday we went there to get breakfast we saw our best friends our best friends out here there's a couple of here we hang out with

austin and sarah we saw them at mcdonald's mc. There's a couple of here that we hang out with Austin and Sarah. We saw them at McDonald's. McDonald's is again, not just a good place to get great food at an affordable price. It's a place to see friends and reconnect. So head over to your local McDonald's to refuel and reconnect. And did someone say Locked On Hawkeyes Watch Party? I am loving it. And I want to thank you all for making the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast your first listen every single day. You can find the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast for free wherever you get podcasts at.

And also on YouTube by searching Locked On Hawkeyes. And I want to quickly thank Arlen Bruce for being our very first NIL deal. It was a pleasure working with Arlen. Go check out his tweet. Arlen is a friend of the show. definitely a big-time supporter of Arlen. I've had him on the show before, a great kid, really excited for his future as an Iowa Hawkeye. So I just want to quickly shout out Arlen for being our first NIL deal ever.

Awesome stuff there. As we were talking about, though, the storylines of this game, we kind of broke it down. Will Tyrone get the ball? That's a big one. Can Iowa start strong? Will their defense come out swinging and force some turnovers? Which quarterback plays for Northwestern? Can we get this offensive line going? Those are the storylines. Let's get into the keys to this game. We talked about turnovers and how Iowa needs to

force them. Iowa also needs to protect the football. We've had some issues with fumbles and interceptions. The interceptions haven't been as big of an issue, and I'm not as worried about it because Spencer threw three of his four interceptions against Purdue in the fourth quarter. He was trying to make something happen. We were putting him in a non-advantageous situation. Disadvantageous? Tell me how to say that. I don't even know. It was a bad situation for Spencer Petras playing from behind in the fourth quarter. But we have had fumbling issues as well. Now, most of that has come from Ivory Kelly Martin. I don't want to harp on Ivory,

but he's probably not playing in this game. So it'll be important that Gavin Williams, who is likely getting those number two carries, probably could get five to seven carries this game. It is important that he protects the football. That is going to be huge. Also establishing the running game. We mentioned Gavin Williams. Ivory Kelly Martin, when he has protected the football, has been a pretty good compliment back to Tyler Goodson. I really like Ivory Kelly Martin's one-cut downhill decisiveness and his speed that he uses to get through the hole and get a couple yards. At some degrees, we do need that a little bit more from Tyler Goodson, who has been stuffed quite a bit behind the line of scrimmage. So I'm really interested to see how Gavin Williams does

in this game. A little bit different of a back, a change of pace type of back to a, to a, sorry, excuse me, Tyler Goodson. But in this, in this season, Iowa's only averaging 105.3 yards per game and a 2.9 yard per attempt clip. Now that's a little bit misleading. Spencer Petras has minus 105 yards on 44 attempts. That's never a good thing to have in there. But Tyler Goodson has only rushed for over 100 yards once. That is never what you want to see from your all-Big Ten running back.

Especially as the weather gets colder, Iowa is going to need to rely on the run better and more. And as we have seen, this offensive line does a better job in run protection or run blocking than it has done in pass protection. The biggest issue I see is the fact that Iowa is not getting creative in how they're running the football. They're not disguising anything. They're lining up and saying, we are running it to the left.

Try to stop us. And teams are like, yeah, we'll stop you. And they do. So I'd like to see Iowa get a bit more creative. I'd like to see Iowa mix it up a little bit more. And I think we're going to see things turn around in the running attack. Now, it also definitely aids us that Northwestern is absolutely freaking atrocious at run defense.

They are one of the worst run defenses in the nation. Their PFF grade, 53.6. Nothing to write home about. When you look at their actual rush defense in terms of ranking, they're 123rd. This is literally one of the worst rush defenses in the entire nation. If there was ever a time for Tyler Goodson to get 100 yards, it is this game. In fact, if Iowa doesn't get 200 yards, I'm a little bit disappointed in the performance in this game unless Spencer Petras airs it out for 600 yards, which would never, ever, ever happen.

So again, you protect the football, you establish the run, and you target their linebackers in the passing attack. Northwestern's linebackers are some of the worst coverage linebackers in the entire country. Well, we have Luke Lachey, a four-star recruit, and Sam Laporta, who's going to be an NFL tight end, more than likely in two years, potentially a first-round prospect next year.

Iowa needs to target those linebackers. That is a huge area of weakness for this Northwestern team. And then finally, Northwestern's only thing they got going for them on offense is their running back, Evan Hull. Can they stop Evan Hull? That is going to be a huge question mark going into this game. It is going to be up to Iowa's defensive line to get a push and allow our linebackers to make plays.

Where Northwestern has had the most success with Evan Hull running the football is right between the left guard and the center. Noah Shannon, Lucas Van Ness, those guys are going to be very important in this game, and Y.A. Black and others. Those guys are going to be very important in this game to getting a push,. Black and others, those guys are going to be very important in this game to getting a push, engaging their blockers, and allowing the linebackers to come up and make plays and stopping the run. If you stop the run,

you force Northwestern to pass the football. That gives Iowa an opportunity to make some big plays, make and force some turnovers. Those are the four keys to this game. So what are my predictions for this game? Well, Iowa is minus 12. The over-under is 40 and a half. When I look at this, it's a bit tough. The 40 and a half can scare me. I don't think Northwestern can score that many points in this

game. I would argue Northwestern scores less than 13 points in this game, which means you are betting on this Iowa offense scoring 27 points. That's tough to do. Iowa has not been exactly a good covering machine in terms of over-unders. However, in this game, I think we're going to see Iowa get back on track. I think they win 30-10 or 30-13. You can get that number at 40. Awesome.

If you get it at 40.5, you're better hoping on that 30-13. The Iowa minus 12, I think Iowa will cover minus 12 as well. Now, traditionally, I would not say that against Northwestern, but this is not the same Northwestern team. This is not a good Northwestern team. This is a Northwestern team with significant areas of weakness. Iowa should have no problem covering that minus 12. On offense, Northwestern doesn't have anything that gives me concern. And on defense, what Iowa wants to do is exactly what

Northwestern can't stop. There's going to be a lot of opportunities to the Hawks here. Now, I did tell you those numbers in regards to Iowa's first quarter production on offense and their first quarter production on defense. Right now, the first half spread is Iowa minus six and a half. In most games, I'm telling you, take the other team. I think we're going to see Iowa score a touchdown in the first quarter. In two in the second quarter, I'm taking Iowa first half, and I'm taking that over on the first half as well. If you're worried about the over-under for the whole game,

I would take the over for the first half and then wait and see how that offense looks before taking that second half over. But that's my prediction. I know it's a little aggressive. I know it's a bit overzealous. I know it's maybe even too positive for this game. When I look on paper,

there is no reason why Iowa should lose this game, and there's every reason why Iowa should be able to get off to a hot start against a struggling Northwestern squad. Coming up, we're going to be talking about which team you should be rooting for just in a few moments. There's a lot of Big Ten teams. Minnesota, do you want to root for Minnesota? Which SEC teams do you want to root for and root against? Yes, a lot of these teams are going to be teams that are ranked above Iowa that we want to lose, but there's a few surprises in there, so we're going to be covering all that in a few moments. Now, I just told you about all of the spreads for this Iowa-Northwestern football game.

And you can place all of your bets at betonline.ag, which is my number one spot for all my basketball and football action this season. It's where I go. And I wouldn't recommend anything other than betonline.ag because they have treated me well and it is where I go for all my betting needs. So head over to their new updated desktop or mobile website, sign up today, and receive a 50% welcome bonus on your first deposit. All you need to do is use that promo code LOCKEDON.

Right now, BetOnline.ag continues to get better and better and better, and they have more props, odds, and lines than ever before. From basketball, football, NHL, boxing, and UFC, right to your favorite Vegas casino games, don't wait to take advantage of all the amazing offers available for the 2021 season. BetOnline is the fastest and easiest way to bet on all your favorite sports. BetOnline.ag, where the game starts. You've heard me talk about this before,

but Bilt Bar is the best tasting protein bar on the market today. It is the protein bar of my choice. LaShawn Daniels has tried it and he absolutely loves it. It's also the protein bar of choice for the USA track and field team. Now, why are we all loving this Bilt Bar? Well, let me tell you the two biggest things. It's so freaking delicious and it's also so good for you as well. There's so many flavors out there.

They're also dropping a limited time flavor every three to four days. Make sure you're checking that out at BuiltBar.com. But let me tell you about the health benefits because that's really where this gets me going. It is awesome. Low calorie, low carb, low fat, low sugar, and high in protein. It's everything you want in a Built Bar without the crappy, chalky, waxy, or hard to choke down taste that most protein bars give you. crappy, chalky, waxy, or hard-to-choke-down taste that most protein bars give you. Built Bar is none of that. It is soft. It's covered in 100% real chocolate.

And when you bite it, you know you're eating something different. You're eating something absolutely delicious. That's also good for you. So go to Built.com. That's B-U-I-L-T.com. Use the promo code LOCKED15, and you'll get 15% off your next order. Use the promo code LOCKED15 for 15% off at built.com. So we talked about the storylines of this game. We talked about the keys of this game.

Now let's talk to you about who you want to root for outside of this Iowa game. So we're going to be breaking down the top 25, and it's going to get a bit interesting. The first game up is Minnesota versus Illinois. You might think you want to root for Illinois here. Well, actually, it doesn't matter. If Iowa wins out, that means they beat Minnesota. And if you want Iowa to have a better opportunity here, you want Minnesota to win. You want that game to mean more in terms of the college ball playoff ranking committee for Iowa. So Minnesota needs to beat Illinois in this game, in my personal opinion.

Iowa can then win out. They beat Minnesota. That looks better for them. It's tough. I know. It's tough to swallow. But we've got to play the long game here. Liberty versus ranked Mississippi.

Liberty all day. The fact that we have seven or eight SEC teams above Iowa is absolutely atrocious and goes to show you that this CFP committee is garbage. Speaking of SEC, Auburn versus Texas A&M honestly doesn't matter to me. Don't care. One of them is going to lose. It's not going to change. They're both going to stay above Iowa. We'll get them next week. Now let's get into some big 12 games. Oklahoma State versus West Virginia. You better believe, West Virginia all day. Baylor versus TCU.

This is tough. I want Dylan Doyle to have some success. You probably want TCU to win. That's probably who you want to win here. Going into some other non-conference teams. Non-affiliated teams. Idaho State versus BYU. Idaho State is 1-6.

They're probably not going to win, but you want them to beat BYU because for whatever reason, BYU is above Iowa. Also, Navy versus Notre Dame. Anytime anyone plays Notre Dame, I'm always rooting for the other team. So Navy for sure. Notre Dame would not beat Iowa. They look good because they stomped Wisconsin in the fourth quarter. Wisconsin was winning that game until the fourth quarter. Let's get into a little bit of Big Ten games. We already

talked about Minnesota, Illinois, Ohio State, Nebraska. Now this one's tough. In my personal opinion, Iowa's best chance of making a New Year's Six Bowl is probably going to be to be the third best Big Ten team. You want Ohio State or Michigan State in the college ball playoffs. And you probably want both those teams to win all of their games, except for whichever game, whoever wins the game, they play each other. At this point, it's kind of tough. You want Ohio State to win, I think, in this game.

You also want Nebraska to not be bowl eligible. You basically want them to quit on Scott Frost because Nebraska has been playing solid football. They just can't get Ws. Of course, when they play Iowa, they're going to be ready to roll and more than likely will turn it on against them. Michigan State versus Purdue. I'm leaning Michigan State here. Again, I think we have to accept the fact that Ohio State and Michigan State

are on a quest to play each other. Now, the only way I want Michigan State to lose versus Purdue is if Michigan State craps the bed and loses the next four games. I don't see that happening, so I want Michigan State to win. I want them to be a part of that college ball playoff committee or the college ball playoff conversation because we want a Big Ten team in that college ball playoffs, and the other team will more than likely get a Big Ten team in that college ball playoffs,

and the other team will more than likely get a Rose Bowl. If Iowa can win out, if Iowa can win out and Wisconsin loses to Minnesota, we're talking about Iowa potentially getting that type of play, a New Year's Six Bowl. If Michigan State is also good, they can fall behind Iowa, but basically trying to get Iowa into that third or fourth best Big Ten team talk there. Now, Michigan.

This one's going to be interesting. Indiana versus Michigan. I want Indiana to win. I don't think Michigan is honestly that good. I know they played Michigan State really well. But I think Michigan could be in a free-for-all. If you have Michigan lose against Indiana, they lose against Ohio State, Iowa's going to easily jump them as well.

Wisconsin versus Rutgers, you want to pick Rutgers here because Wisconsin now has control of their own destiny. Hopefully, Drake Sciano can figure some things out and Rutgers can get that W. That would be huge for Michigan versus Rutgers. There's a couple other games we didn't talk about. Oregon versus Washington. You probably want Washington here. NC State versus Florida State.

You want Florida State. And Mississippi State versus Arkansas. You want Arkansas here, although I could see Arkansas jumping Iowa if they beat Mississippi State. But that is who you want to win in this week, as you want Iowa to continue to climb the college football playoff ladder, and you want Iowa to continue to climb in the Big Ten West and the Big Ten overall so they can get a run at the Big Ten championship game.

That does do it for our show today. If you want more Big Ten content, you've got to check out Nate Dickinson and the Locked On Big Ten podcast. I want to thank you all for making the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast your first listen and always tuning in, being passionate and loyal listeners. So again, thank you all for doing that. And make sure to check us out on Sunday. We'll be dropping that episode with LaShawn Daniels,

breaking down Iowa versus Northwestern. Again, thank you all. Have a fantastic Friday and even better weekend. And as always, let's go Hawks.