Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - How the Iowa Hawkeyes beat Wisconsin: Spencer Petras' ability to connect deep, Tory Taylor's booming punts, and stopping the run

Episode Date: October 29, 2021

With gameday 24 hours away, we break down the key storylines heading into tomorrow's game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Wisconsin Badgers before diving into how the Hawkeyes can leave Madison victorious. While Wisconsin's defense is one of the best in the nation, there are some vulnerabilities in the secondary which is why Spencer Petras will be very important in a game where Iowa will struggle to find running lanes. Moreover, while these teams are incredibly similar, there is a glaring weakness with Wisconsin's special teams' units which is why our All-American hopeful punter Tory Taylor will be a big factor. And with any Wisconsin team, you must stop the run. We break this all down and give our predictions in this game preview.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!SweatBlockGet it today for 20% off at SweatBlock.com with promo code LockedOn, or at Amazon and CVS.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.PrizePicksDon’t hesitate, check out PrizePicks.com and use promo code: “LOCKEDON” or go to your app store and download the app today. PrizePicks is daily fantasy made easy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back, Hawkeye Nation, to a Friday morning episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Podcast Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade. Excited to be back for another show today. And if you are one of our loyal listeners on YouTube, I apologize for not getting a shout out yesterday on YouTube. We did drop the podcast episode. The video wasn't working, so we had some technical difficulties. But nevertheless, thank you all. We did drop the podcast episode. The video wasn't working, so we had some technical difficulties.

But nevertheless, thank you all. And I also want to thank you for making the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast your first one every single day. You can find the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast wherever you get podcasts at by searching Locked on Hawkeyes. You can also get us at YouTube for free Monday through Friday searching Locked on Hawkeyes. And on today's show, we're going to be breaking down everything you need to know about this upcoming game tomorrow, Iowa versus Wisconsin. What are the key storylines? How does Iowa win this game? And what is my prediction?

We're doing all that on today's show. And today's episode of the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast is brought to you by McDonald's. Proudly serving communities since 1965, McDonald's has always been more than just a place to get tasty, affordable food. It's an unofficial community center. A big thank you to our friends at McDonald's for always being there. I'm loving it. Let's get into it, though. The big thing.

So we talked to Ben Kenney and Asher Lowe of Lockdown Badgers yesterday, and what we basically came to the conclusion of is that these teams are the exact same. Both of these teams prefer to run the ball. That is what they like to create their identity on is running the football. Both of these teams have young quarterbacks making only their second season of starting, right, high-profile recruits. Graham Mertz had a better season last year. Spencer Petras has a better season this year.

Both teams traditionally very strong offensive line. Wisconsin struggling in pass protection, though, and so is Iowa. Both defenses very stout against the run and the pass. Where it comes down to is there's a little bit of a difference and a gap in the special teams unit. But overall, these teams play very similar styles. They're very similar teams. And when you look at almost every advanced metric,

they're basically the exact same team. So what are we going to expect when we go into Madison, Wisconsin tomorrow and play some football? It is going to be a grinded out, bloodshed, gritty game in between the trenches. Probably going to be a 10 to 6 type of game like we saw five or six years ago. But what are some of the key storylines going into this game that leads to that 10-6 prediction or even a low-scoring game nevertheless? First and foremost, Iowa has to be able to stop Wisconsin's running game. Last week against Purdue, Wisconsin turned on the Jets, and they absolutely dominated Purdue in the trenches.

As we discussed with Asher and Ben yesterday, they ran right at George Carlaptus. They put out three tight ends, one being a former offensive lineman, and just ran the ball down Purdue's throat. That is one of the reasons why I've been saying all week I expect Iowa to be in a 4-3, if not a 4-4 in this game because they need to stop the run first and foremost and then worry about the passing attack, which if Wisconsin had its way, they wouldn't have to throw the ball at all. So it is important to have a couple defensive backs out there,

but first and foremost, you've got to stop the run because if you can't stop the run, Wisconsin's going to control the clock. They're going to wear it on the defense, and that is how big plays happen in the third and fourth quarters when you're killing the defense driving and drive out on eight to ten minute drives where you're running the ball. What's important to note, though, is Wisconsin's offensive line is huge. They are averaging 312 pounds across their starters. Meanwhile, Iowa's defensive line is averaging 270 pounds. Now, that's not completely unexpected,

but you would like to see two defensive tackles, at least a little bit higher up, closer to that 300 range. Iowa has a lot younger of a group than we typically do in the defensive line. And it means we're going to have a little bit of a lighter group as well, traditionally, or typically I would say when you have such a young group. So 270 pounds across that offensive line or across that defensive line. However, this, this lightweight young defensive line has done a good job of holding up against the run so far. They've allowed 2.7 yards per rush, which is eighth in the nation. So how do they handle a Wisconsin rushing attack that is 42nd in rushing yards per attempt at 3.7? Well, that is the storyline that I'm going to be

watching. Now, is Iowa's rushing defense good, or have they been playing opponents that aren't very good at rushing the ball? Well, that's an interesting question as well. Purdue is 128th, Penn State 88th, Colorado State 83rd, Iowa State 25th, Kent State 75th, Indiana 116th, Maryland 85th. That is in rushing yards per attempt. So they're getting a Wisconsin team that is 42nd. They're going to have to stick up.

They're going to have to handle that stuff. They're going to be able to show us what kind of rushing defense is this Iowa defense truly. Now on the flip side of that, how does Iowa's undersized offensive line go up against a Wisconsin 3-4 defense? Iowa's offensive line averages 292 pounds. Now for comparison's sake, Wisconsin again is up in that 312 range. That's nearly a 20 pound difference between these two offensive lines. Wisconsin's defensive line is pretty heavy. Now that's going to be expected considering it is a three four defensive line. So what that means is you only have three guys on the line. Your two defensive ends are going to be more like tackles in that regard.

They're going to be a bit heavier, be a bit more focused on stopping the run, which allows your linebackers to flow freely to the ball. But that 3-4 defensive line is averaging 295 pounds. Now you look at the linebackers. Relatively normal-sized linebacker group, except for Leo Chanel, who is 261 pounds. This is a behemoth of a Wisconsin defense in their front seven. And that's important to note, as Iowa does have a little bit lighter of an offensive line and also an offensive line that has been struggling.

Wisconsin's D is better than Iowa's in rushing yards per attempt. They're allowing 1.9 yards per attempt, which is absurd. Iowa's rushing attack is nowhere near Wisconsin's either. We are 110th in rushing yards per attempt at 3.1. Now that's only a 0.6 yard difference between Wisconsin and Iowa. That 0.6 yards can make quite a difference in the grand scheme of things. Now I'm going to make that same comparison sake. When you look at Wisconsin, who they have faced, they haven't really faced that many good rushing attacks. Notre Dame was 119th,

Illinois 45th, Penn State 88th, Eastern Michigan 111th, Army 34th, Michigan 14th, and Purdue 128th. Now, when you look at what those teams did, Army, a good rushing attack, averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Michigan had 3.2. Penn State's Noah Kane averaged six yards per carry. So there's been some variability to their success. Overall, Purdue had no chance because they couldn't run the football. They don't have a lot of scholarship backs on that roster anymore. Wisconsin is able to basically load the box. Sorry, not load the box.

Stop the run with the guys they had in the box and basically wait on Aiden O'Connell to make mistakes. They double-covered David Bell, and that's how they won that game so convincingly. Anyone out there that's saying, well, Wisconsin just shut down Purdue, Purdue shut down Iowa, Wisconsin's easily shut down Iowa, that is not how this works. This is not transitive property between wins and losses of similar teams. But one thing I will say that was interesting about that Purdue game

for Wisconsin versus the Purdue game for Iowa is the fact that Iowa didn't force any turnovers versus Purdue, and Purdue did force turnovers against Iowa. Now, three of those four interceptions came in the fourth quarter, but nevertheless, Purdue did win that turnover battle. Now, against Wisconsin, Purdue lost that turnover battle. What's been interesting about these teams, while these defenses are very similar, these teams have not been the same in terms of forcing turnovers. Wisconsin is 128th in giveaways per game at 2.4, so a lot of turnovers, a lot of turnover opportunities. Meanwhile, Iowa's first in takeaways. On the flip side, Wisconsin is 72nd in takeaways at 1.3, and Iowa's 60th with 1.3. Now that obviously leans Iowa in that advantage, which I think is going to be a very interesting thing to watch as this game plays out because

turnovers could be a huge difference. As we saw when Josh Jackson was with the Iowa Hawkeyes, I believe he had two pick sixes. That's a big time game changing, momentum changing type of play against the Wisconsin team. Now, don't quote me on that. I've got to go back and check. I thought I remembered that correctly. But again, turnovers are a huge piece in a game that is dominated by field position and controlling the clock and two defenses that don't allow offenses to move very much.

That could be a big factor in this game. Now, the other piece is pass protection for both of these teams. Spencer has not been getting very good pass protection. Iowa is 101st in sack percentage. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is 22nd in sack percentage on the defensive side of the ball. So they're able to bring pressure, and Iowa's not able to stop it. That is going to be concerning considering when we get into the keys to this game. I believe Iowa needs to pass the ball effectively against Wisconsin

because I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball well. On the flip side of that, Wisconsin is 93rd in sack percentage. They actually have a worse pass blocking grade according to PFF than Iowa does. The only problem is Iowa has not been very good at putting pressure on the quarterback. Look at what happened against Purdue. Half of those pressures came from linebackers and on blitzes. You need more production from your defensive line. Now, granted, we have some injuries, but that is something I'm going to be watching as a key storyline going into this game. Now, coming up, we're going to talk about what Iowa needs to do to ultimately win this game. But I have to tell you about McDonald's because, you know, McDonald's is the place where you can gather, meet your friends, grab a tasty bite, all at an affordable price. McDonald's has probably been serving communities since 1965,

and this episode of the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast is brought to you by McDonald's themselves. McDonald's has always been more than just a place to get tasty, affordable food. I remember when I was back in high school and in college, we would always go to McDonald's, meet up either after the bars, either after a dodgeball tournament, whatever it might be. We were always going to McDonald's because that's where the delicious food was that we could afford, that we could also see all of our friends as well. So if you haven't tried McDonald's recently, you've got to go check it out. I personally go there probably two to three times a week.

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I am loving it. I want to thank you all for making the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast your first listen every single day. You can find the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast your first listen every single day. You can find the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast for free wherever you get podcasts at, and also on YouTube by searching Locked On Hawkeyes. And as we were wrapping up the segment one, where we talked about the storylines for this game,

I want to get into the keys to this game. Now, as we mentioned earlier, turnovers are a huge piece in any time Iowa plays Wisconsin. Whoever wins that turnover battle more than likely is going to win that game. Now that's where it becomes very key that Iowa needs to force Graham Mertz to throw the football. Wisconsin currently has the ninth worst passing attack, according to PFF, in the country. Iowa's secondary is arguably the best secondary in the entire country. Now, they are missing Riley Moss, but they have so much depth that this team can handle a Wisconsin passing attack that is that bad.

But how do you get Graham Mertz to throw the football? Wisconsin's not going to willy-nilly just start chucking the ball all around. You need to stop Wisconsin's rushing attack. How do you do that? 4-3, a 4-4 defense. Your defensive line needs to eat up blocks and your linebackers need to flow to the football. This is where Jack Campbell, Justin Jacobs, Seth Benton, and even Jay Higgins become so crucial in this game. They need to get to the tag team duo from Wisconsin, the running backs, they need to bring them down and they cannot miss

tackles. You do that, you get Graham Mertz throwing the football, and that's where Iowa has an opportunity to capitalize on some turnover worthy plays. On the flip side of that, Iowa needs to take calculated shots deep. Yes, this Wisconsin defense is a very strong defense, probably the second best defense in the Big Ten right behind Iowa. You know where they're weak at, though? It's their secondary. Now, it's not exactly the glaring hole you have to go at. It's absolutely terrible.

What a bad secondary. But it is a weakness nonetheless on this team. Now, the thing is, can you get enough time to take those calculated shots deep? Iowa has got to have improved in pass protection. They had two weeks to work on a few things. They got a bit healthier. How does that play into it? Does Mason Richmond take a big step forward? Does Nick DeYoung take a big step forward? Does Iowa leave some tight ends in to allow for Spencer Petras to have a bit more time to take those calculated shots. Now, the other side of that is you need guys who can win those one-on-one battles because

you better believe the same game plan Iowa has for Wisconsin, Wisconsin's going to have for Iowa as well. They're going to force Iowa to throw the ball. They want Spencer Petras to potentially make mistakes. That gives Iowa an opportunity though, where Iowa can potentially be in one-on-one coverage. You need a guy like Keegan Johnson to have a big game. You need to get Keegan Johnson the ball and take those shots. Everything I've seen from Keegan Johnson to this point has been nothing short of impressive.

Charlie Jones has also shown the ability to break coverage with post routes over the middle. I would love to see Arlen Bruce get the ball and some short yardage opportunities, drag routes, slants, et cetera. See what he can do with the ball in his hands. And of course, if Tyrone Tracy can just get the ball in his hands, he has been dynamic. He has been a Wisconsin killer to a degree in his career. Now you're wondering, why do you think the Wisconsin secondary is a weakness, Andrew? Well, here it is. Their secondary has an 80.9 PFF grade. Now, that is a very good PFF grade, but that is the lowest rated PFF grade on the Wisconsin defense. But that's not why. When you look at their players individually,

Cesar Williams is the seventh rated player on their defense. Dean Ingram, 15th. Alexander Smith, 22nd. Fayan Hicks is even below that. Those are their starting secondary members. That's not exactly good. Colin Wilder, 8th. Scott Nelson, 17th. Those are our starting safeties. This Wisconsin team, they have some weaknesses in the secondary. Now, even more so, what we talked about with Asher Lowe and Ben Kenney

is the fact that Wisconsin has been beaten deep a few times. So I took a look at the longest plays some of these guys have given up. Cesar Williams, their starting cornerback, their number one corner, has allowed a deep play of 52 yards. Dean Ingram, 56 yards. Scott Nelson, 49 yards. Alexander Smith, 34 yards. And Fayon Hicks, 42 yards. Those are big-time plays that each of those guys have allowed. There are opportunities to go deep against this Wisconsin team if we can get protection. Now looking further into it, Cesar Williams is allowing 15.7 yards per catch.

Ingram is allowing 11.8 yards per catch. Nelson's allowing 12.7. And Hicks is allowing 11.7. There are opportunities here. And if I haven't made my point yet, let me give you one more stat that can drive this point home. Nelson has a PFF coverage grade of 60.5. Cesar Williams, 75.9. Fayon Hicks, 51.8. Dean Ingram, 64.3. And Colin Wilderer 80. There are opportunities against this Wisconsin secondary if and only if Iowa's offensive line can hold up just enough to let Iowa's wide receivers

get open. This is a big time opportunity for the Hawks in this game. I think in order to run the ball successfully against Wisconsin, you need to have a similar attack to what you saw against Maryland, because you better believe Wisconsin's going to be focusing on stopping the run first and foremost and letting Spencer Petras try to beat them. Spencer Petras, in order to win this game, Spencer Petras needs to play above average football and connect with his wide receivers. and then I believe that opens up the rushing attack. The other way Iowa wins this game is dominant special teams. Wisconsin's special teams from a kicking and a punting perspective, pretty darn good. Honestly, pretty comparable to Iowa's. Their kicker, Colin Larsh, has connected on 10 of 12 field goals,

and there's not short gimme kicks anywhere between 30 and 54 yards, I believe, for Colin Larsh. Meanwhile, Caleb Shudock, similar boat, 11 of 13. In the punting game, now I would take Torrey Taylor over any punter in the nation just with his ball placement and how he can down things within the 10-yard line, but when you look at just the pure stats, Torrey Taylor has a 46.2-yard punting average. Wisconsin's punter, 46.3. Torrey Taylor has a 46.2 yard punting average. Wisconsin punter, 46.3. Torrey Taylor has a 42.1 net punt average. Wisconsin punter, 41.8. So very similar. The difference is Wisconsin return game is absolutely atrocious. They've had issues with dropping punts, with muffing the football, with decision-making. And when they have decided to return the ball, it has been bad as well. In the return game on kick returns, they're literally averaging zero yards per return.

In the punting game, they are averaging 4.3. Both are bottom third in the entire conference. Meanwhile, we got Charlie Jones. Charlie Jones is one of the best returners in the entire nation. We saw what Ivory Kelly Martin could do on kick returns. Charlie Jones can do a similar thing as well. And we have Torrey Taylor back there. When he punched that football, it is tough to catch. So those are the three keys to this game, in my personal opinion. Forcing Graham Mertz to throw the football, taking calculated shots deep, and dominating on the special teams front, hopefully generating at least a turnover or some good field position based on with Iowa's special teams. Now coming up, we're going to talk a little bit about how you should bet on this game and what

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All the healthy benefits on top of just being purely delicious. That is how amazing Built Bar is. And this month they have flavors coming out, new flavors coming out almost every three to four days. So be on the lookout. Even if you bought Built Bars before, you probably haven't tried some of their new flavors. So go to Built.com. That's B-U-I-L-T.com. And use the promo code LOCKED15.

That's L-O-C-K-E-D-1-5. And you'll get 15% off your first order or your order in general, not your first order, any order you make. Use promo code LOCKED15, L-O-C-K-E-D-1-5, for 15% off at Built.com. So I've taken you through the storylines for this game. I've taken you through the keys to this game. Now let's talk about the predictions for this game. This is a very interesting line.

The over-under came in at 36.5. I think that might be the lowest over-under I've seen in college football this season. Iowa is getting 3.5 points on the road. So Wisconsin is favored by 3.5 points. And the last time I checked, the money line for Iowa was plus 140. I believe Iowa is going to win this game. They are fresh. They've had two weeks to get recuperated. They're hungry. They're pissed off in that Purdue game and they know what's at stake. The offensive line has been bad, but I don't, Wisconsin has not really shown up either.

Yes, they beat a Purdue team, a Purdue team that came off a very big victory against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Statistically speaking, when Purdue has beat those top five teams, they have came out and laid a stinker the next day, just like Iowa did after beating Penn State. Wisconsin had their best game of the season, and if they had that same game, yes, it's going to be very tough for Iowa. But when I look at everything on paper, I think Iowa can shut down Wisconsin's rushing attack. I think Wisconsin is not going to be able to move the ball in the passing game. And I think Iowa has an advantage with their special teams.

And I do believe if Spencer Petras can just get a few more seconds of time, or just two and a half seconds, three seconds, I think Iowa can take some shots and beat Wisconsin deep to get some points in this game. Now points are going to be hard to come by. That 36 and a half, I'm so tempted to take the under there. I truly believe this could be a game that is 13 to 10, 13 to six, 13 to seven, only two to three touchdowns in this entire game, maybe even a bunch of field goals. We could even see a 6-3. I mean, this could be like a Penn State 6-4 type of game. That's how ugly this could be.

However, I'm staying away from that 36 and a half. Because if one of these teams operates their game plan the way they want to, there are going to be more than 36 points on the board. If Iowa's able to take a few calculated shots, that's going to open up the rushing attack. And Iowa could then put up 24, 27 points, I believe, in this game. The wheels could fall off. If Graham Mertz starts struggling, as we saw against Notre Dame, some special teams issues, all of a sudden Notre Dame is winning by 25 points or something in that

game after being down to start the fourth quarter. So there's possibilities here. So I'm actually staying away from that over-under. What I'm going hit though, is that Iowa plus three and a half. There is no way Iowa loses this game by more than three points. Now, also personally, I actually put money on Iowa money line at plus one 40. I gave you the reasons why I think Iowa could win this game, the keys to this game and why I think Iowa has an advantage here. I gave you the storylines and now I'm telling you, I think Iowa could win this game and I'm taking that money line all day. I put my bet in on Tuesday when I saw these lines come out, well, they came out on Sunday, but I put my bet in on Tuesday after waiting for a couple of bets on the NFL games and put Iowa at plus 140, getting that

money line bet in for the Hawks to win this game. Now it is going to be an ugly game. It is going to be a stressful game. I'm going to be sitting there wondering, are we ever going to score? And my guess is if you do want to place a bet on that over-under, I would take the first half under. As we've seen Iowa do against teams that they are very competitive with, teams that they are very concerned with losing the turnover battle or allowing big-time opportunities, they play very conservative early on, and they let the game come to them, just like they did against Iowa State. So if anything, I'm taking that first half under because I think both

of these teams are going to start off with just feeling these teams out, feeling each other out, rushing the football and not taking too many shots early on in the game. So if you really want to take an over under, I would take the first half under. I'm taking Iowa plus three and a half and Iowa money line as well. That's my prediction for this game. I'm saying Iowa wins 13 to 10 in this game. It is going to be a victory that leads Iowa to a clear path to the Big Ten Championship. That is all I got for today, though. If you want to check out more Big Ten content, check out the Locked On Big Ten podcast hosted by Nate Dickinson every single Monday through Friday. You can find that wherever you get podcasts at and also on YouTube as well.

That will do it for our show today. Remember to check out our episode with LaShawn Daniels, which will be dropping on Sunday after that hopeful Iowa win over Wisconsin. So be on the lookout for that. Have a phenomenal Friday and even better weekend. And as always, Hawkeye Nation, let's go Hawks.