Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - INSTANT REACTION: Iowa rolls into the Semis, Huge opportunity for Hawkeye men

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Hawkeye women roll as they dominate Penn State and punch their ticket into the Big Ten semifinals. An instant reaction and a huge opportunity for the Iowa men. What a win against Illinois for due for their NCAA tournament chances all today. Locked on Hawkeyes. You are locked on Hawkeyes. Your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network.

Starting point is 00:00:23 Your team every day. Hey, welcome in. I'm Trent Condon, and this is the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen every day. You can find us wherever you find podcasts and you can find us on YouTube. Watch us there. Make sure you hit the subscribe button.

Starting point is 00:00:52 Helps us get in front of more Hawkeye fans. These days, every new potential hire can feel like a high stakes wager for your small business. That's why LinkedIn Jobs helps find the right people for your team faster and for free. Post your job for free at linkedin.com slash locked on college terms and conditions apply. Well,

Starting point is 00:01:12 a dominating performance tonight from the Iowa women as they roll past Penn state and punch their ticket into the semifinals on a day where the number one seed, the Ohio state Buckeyes go down at the hands of the Maryland Terins. Late tonight, Indiana falls and gives up a big lead against Michigan. Even number four seed, Michigan State, falls to fifth seeded Michigan State, falling to Nebraska. The Hawkeyes found a way. We will get into that one. But we open up today talking about the Iowa men and the opportunity that is in front of them.

Starting point is 00:01:44 Coming up with the Sunday matchup as they'll face off against Illinois. Now, we certainly know the Illini are an incredibly talented team. We saw this game not too long ago over in Champaign, and though Iowa had plenty of opportunities, we know that one bad run can certainly do this team in, and that's what Illinois can do on you. You look back upon that game and kind of what we saw in that matchup going there. Iowa had opportunities, especially in the second half.

Starting point is 00:02:11 Brad Underwood, not happy with his team. He benched basically everybody, all of his starters at one point, and Iowa couldn't stretch out the lead. Led by seven with about 10 minutes to go, and felt like that seven, eight-point lead just dissipated so very quickly in that one. The biggest concern when you're going up against Illinois every single time is really what you get from Terrence Shannon. He was not great in that game. In fact, you look at Terrence Shannon, what he has done here recently,

Starting point is 00:02:37 outside of the game the last time out against Purdue, he had scored 23 more points in six of his last seven games. The only time he didn't was against Iowa he normally gets his and he didn't in that game and you got to find a way to cover them up and that means it's going to be a lot of Tony Perkins now making it difficult on him Peyton Sanford it's going to be all hands on deck Josh Dix doing his thing everybody's going to have to be able to go out there and play at a high level and the 95-85 final doesn't tell the story of that game. Obviously, if you watched it, you know what an opportunity there was for Iowa, and that does not paint a

Starting point is 00:03:11 picture of how Iowa played that game. They played well and definitely had opportunities to pull out the victory. And now the importance of this cannot be overstated. the importance of this cannot be overstated. So what we go through when we look at this squad, and these are just numbers. They're just numbers that are analytic and tell what it would do for Iowa's chances of making the NCAA tournament. They continue to go up more and more lists,

Starting point is 00:03:40 more and more opportunities, people seeing them beat an NCAA tournament team, bring up Bracket Matrix quite a bit. Really fun website, and it's very simple. It takes 113 bracketologists, that's right, 113 of these guys that put their bracketology lists out there, and then tells you who would be in the tournament when you just put them all together and average them up.

Starting point is 00:04:03 So Iowa currently is the fifth team out at Bracket Matrix. In fact, earlier this week, there were 13 bracketologists that had Iowa in the tournament in their latest updated version of their brackets. It's down to 10 as we sit here late on Friday night. So that has gone down. We have to remember it's not in a vacuum. And then I think this point is something that needs to be repeated. We just always talk about what Iowa needs to do. What do the Hawkeyes need to do to make the NCAA tournament? Is it two more wins? Is it three more wins? Can they lose to Illinois? What do they still have to do in the Big Ten tournament in order to get there? And those are all fair questions and conversation pieces. However, it's not just about Iowa. There are other teams around the country that are also playing. And because of

Starting point is 00:04:51 that, it's a very fluid situation. So that's one thing that we remember. Look, Iowa can win this game Sunday against Illinois, win a couple of games in the Big Ten tournament. And if we get a freaky weekend and we get a lot of bid thieves that happen, we get a lot of other bubble teams that are winning big games, maybe a bubble team that wins a conference tournament championship. All those things happen. Iowa still very well could be on the outside looking in. The Martian Fair is so razor thin. And because it's not just about Iowa, that's one thing that we definitely have to understand.

Starting point is 00:05:21 But I got some numbers for you. I think these are interesting and what a win would do. So right now, currently, over at Bart Torvik, an analytic-based website, Iowa currently, in his metrics, has a 29.5% chance of making the NCAA tournament. All right, 3 out of 10. You can kind of see that. You play the season out from here, the rest of the way,

Starting point is 00:05:41 and they make it about 3 out of 10 times. Yeah, I think we can say that. I think that's safe, now what it does though with just a win against Illinois without knowing what happens in the Big Ten tournament Iowa's chances go from 29.5% chance of making the tournament right now, a win against

Starting point is 00:05:56 Illinois raises those odds over 60%, 62.6% in fact, according to Bart Torvik's metrics beat Illinois, lose to Maryland in the first game. A lot of people say, well, Illinois win. That's going to be enough. No, it's not.

Starting point is 00:06:10 It drops down to 43% chance of making the tournament if that happens. Iowa wins the first game, wins on Sunday against Illinois, loses their first game in the Big Ten tournament. Those odds drop from 62% down to 43. Beat Illinois on Sunday, beat Maryland, and then lose to Nebraska. That's who you likely face in the semifinals. You're still at 62%. In fact, a tick higher at 62.7% if you play out that way. Now you lose to Illinois. Your percentages drop from 29% right now down to 26% again before the Big Ten tournament lose to Illinois beat

Starting point is 00:06:45 Minnesota then lose to Illinois again in the Big Ten tournament you're at 29 percent lose to Illinois on Sunday beat Nebraska beat Illinois for a second time and then lose to Nebraska in the semifinals it's only 54 percent I think what this shows more than anything is just how important this game is you win this one it's not over. You still have more to do. I maintain the two wins gets them in the tournament. If they can find two more victories the rest of the season, I think that'll be enough to push them over the edge and at minimum get them to Dayton. And that's another thing you're playing for too, is staying away from Dayton and the playing route. Have the opportunity to be in the main bracket. Iowa went out there in the first

Starting point is 00:07:24 NCAA tournament for Freya McCaffrey, lost an overtime game to Tennessee and a very frustrating route. Have the opportunity to be in the main bracket. Iowa went out there in the first NCAA tournament for Freya McCaffrey, lost an overtime game to Tennessee and a very frustrating loss. Iowa had opportunity to put that one away and eventually couldn't happen against the Vols. And then on top of it, the way that bracket broke, they got a sixth seed in UMass that was overseeded after Tennessee dispatched them. Who was waiting? Not the number three seed, overseeded after Tennessee dispatched them. Who was waiting? Not the number three seed, the Duke Blue Devils that year. No, it was the Mercer Bears. The bracket opened up. Iowa wasn't there, though, to take advantage. Get in. Anything could happen. And it would be a little bit wild if this was the team that actually finally got Fran McCaffrey for the

Starting point is 00:08:02 first time in his career to the second weekend. He's won plenty of games in the NCAA tournament. He's been able to get to the round of 32, but he hasn't been able to get to the second weekend. He did it at Siena. He's done it at Iowa. And if this would be the team, as bad as they looked, it would be absolutely wild. But there's still work, and the work starts on Sunday. That will increase their odds so much of getting it done. What's it going to take to beat Illinois? We'll talk about that a little bit.

Starting point is 00:08:29 And your reaction to what happened on the hardwood tonight as Iowa gets the victory. We've got a little baseball, some wrestling to talk about, and a whole lot more. It's a busy one. A weekend preview edition here of Locked on Hawkeyes. Hawkeyes. Fire TV is your destination for sports, from live games to highlights to in-depth analysis. Fire TV offers amazing viewing experiences with smart TVs, as well as Fire TV Stick.

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Starting point is 00:09:51 To learn more, visit Amazon.com slash LockedOnFireTV. Trent Conant back with you here on the LockedOnHawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making LockedOnHawkeyes your first listen every day so a couple of things let's start with the matchup against Illinois Coleman Hawkins was a stud on the last time out so you got to keep Owen Freeman out of foul trouble he cannot afford to be on the bench as he is through a lot of games right he's got to stay out of foul trouble we know Ben Crickey defensively, that is not his strength. And though Iowa has evolved a little bit offensively

Starting point is 00:10:29 past him, not running as much as the offense, we know he's a skilled offensive player. Really good with that long jumper, the 16 to 18 foot jump shot. That's something that's been his bread and butter throughout his Iowa career and going back to his days at Valparaiso. But keeping those guys out there, probably going to have to pack the paint. We mentioned about what's it going to take against Terrence Shannon. And the other part about the game, when you go back, Harmon had 12 in the game already, who hadn't done anything seemingly all season long. He had nine points in that game and a couple of dagger three-pointers as Illinois was coming back into the game.

Starting point is 00:11:02 Hawkins had 30 points the first time out. I mean, you just, you have to slow him down and can't allow him to get to that kind of level. Because if that happens, I was going to be in deep trouble again. We know there's going to be plenty of line. I fans that are also going to be there. And yes, they're annoying and they were their stupid orange and, and all that. But hopefully we don't see some of the invasions we've seen in the past with Illinois fans. And, you know, Patrick McCaffrey said it.

Starting point is 00:11:25 The attendance has been poor for basketball. It's not anything that we haven't seen. It would be great to see this group go out with a great home environment. After what we saw with women's basketball this year, what we've seen throughout not just this season, but seemingly every single time with the Iowa wrestling program. To see Carver Hawkeye rocking for the men's team would just be a great, great thing to send this group off. Illinois comes in. They're elite offensively. They're fourth in the country.

Starting point is 00:11:54 Not great on the defensive end. It's probably going to be another end-to-end game. First one to 100. We're going to go back to the Iowa versus Flying Illini days of the late 80s and into the 90s and some of the great matchups there, where you can really get Illinois on the defensive end. They don't steal. Well, Iowa doesn't turn it over. That is a huge component there. And you can make three-pointers against this team. And I do wonder the way that they at times pack it in, kind of the defense that they run. We haven't seen Iowa hit a ton of three-pointers in this game, but Illinois, if they're going to make a concerted effort

Starting point is 00:12:29 to take away the mid-range game from Iowa, it's a dying art in basketball, the mid-range game. You just don't see many people do it. You see offensive systems that are set up, either take three-pointers or get to the rim, and if Illinois is going to come in and come in with an idea to do that, I think that's going to be maybe part of the game plan that Underwood has here. Josh Dix has been so good at it. Obviously, Tony Perkins, who had a monster performance a year ago against

Starting point is 00:12:54 Illinois in the win in Carver Hockey Arena, one of the big wins that helped get Iowa into the NCAA tournament a year ago was that one. So we'll see what the game plan is for Illinois. Would that be definitely a component that I'd be looking for? Let's get into the Iowa women, their victory against Penn State up in Minneapolis. See the people in line at 9.30 for a 5.30 tip. Kudos to you. You guys are crazy.

Starting point is 00:13:19 Why they went general admission at the Target Center, I have no idea. I don't understand what the thought process and the justification was behind it. But they did it and probably going to be second-guessing themselves again. The good news for Iowa, though, what a rough one in the Big Ten for the top seeds. Outside of Iowa, number one starts off the day as Ohio State goes down. After Iowa ran them out of the gym and got the victory on Sunday, Maryland, they were just the better team.

Starting point is 00:13:50 It was crazy because we've seen Maryland this season. We don't tell it on its own. It's not a problem. It just hasn't completely clicked for this team, and it did. Seller, she was outstanding in the game. She had 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists, and Ohio State never could get it did. Sellers, she was outstanding in the game. She had 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists. And Ohio State never could get it going. 6-22 from 3 in the game.

Starting point is 00:14:10 They shoot 35% from the floor. Maryland wins on the boards 44-21. Rebounding the Buckeyes in that one. Then we go to the afternoon session. Nebraska, the number 5 seed, beats 4-seeded Michigan State there and did it in convincing fashion, winning it by a dozen, started to stretch it out in the second quarter, really ran away in the third, got the victory. We'll get to the Iowa game in a moment. And then the nightcap, no McKenzie Holmes. We knew and we talked about it this week here on Locked On Hawkeyes. Every dayers,

Starting point is 00:14:39 you knew this. McKenzie Holmes eventually did not play and after getting out to a good lead, Indiana led it at double digits. But a comeback in a 29-point fourth quarter. Michigan had 40 points through three quarters. And they scored 29 in the fourth to get the victory 69-56. That sets up a matchup in the semifinals with the Hawkeyes and the Wolverines. That'll be a 3-30 tip on Big Ten Network tomorrow. 3.30 afternoon tip after the Maryland-Nebraska game will be game one in that one. We've talked about some of the good stories and the good

Starting point is 00:15:16 things and not just watching Kaitlyn Clark and it's fun to do, but in a night where Kaitlyn doesn't hit any of her first 11 attempts from behind the three-point arc, in a game like that, I was still able to dominate. Against a good, not a great Penn State team. I mean, they're a bubble team. This isn't a wonderful Penn State team, but to be able to beat a team like that by 33. When Kaitlyn misses her first 11 three-pointers of the game, finishes the game 5 of 17 from the floor. Now she gets, or 5 of 19, excuse me, from the floor. She gets the free

Starting point is 00:15:51 throw line 13 times, makes 12 of them. She has 10 rebounds. She has seven assists in the game. I mean, she's doing Kaitlyn things, but the shot's not there, and her teammates pick her up. And these are the things that need to happen for the squad. If I was going to make a big run come March, they're going to need everybody else to be able to chip in. Now there's going to be opportunities and likely going to be games where Caitlin just throws a team on her back and away we go. When the shot's fallen, she's feeling good. There's still going to be those moments more than likely here throughout the course of the rest of the season. But when you see everybody else stepping up in a certain way, Gabby Marshall scoring 15 points in the game,

Starting point is 00:16:32 we've seen Gabby be better, and we've seen the shots starting to fall. And this is what it's been before really the concerns started. And after the Illinois game and that Sunday win a couple of weeks ago, she has gone now 4 of 7, 4 of 7, and 4 of 7 from 3. Yeah, that'll play. We'll take a whole lot of that. Sidney Fulter makes her fourth career start in the game. Has a career-high 18 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists as well for Sidney Fulter.

Starting point is 00:16:59 We talked about how this team is built a little bit differently. She's a better defender. She's a bigger body. She's a great rebounder at her size. And if she's knocking down shots as she did in this one, three or four from behind the arc, look out on that one. Kate Martin didn't shoot it well,

Starting point is 00:17:13 but she's the glue. As you saw between the first and second period, my buddy Rustad's sister was the one that had the glue sign for Kate Martin. Shout out there to the Rustad family. Even Kate didn't shoot it well from the outside. You know, she just does so many other things. Feerbach with the three. Taylor McCabe with four three-pointers as she got more playing time in the second half.

Starting point is 00:17:36 O'Grady got in there. Got to see a little Ender late. Even Jim Fee and Goodman. Got to see all them out there and play. Look, these are the things that need to happen for them. And the path is wide open. Iowa should, I hate to say it, cruise to a Big Ten championship. Hope you jumped aboard with me when we talked about that earlier in the week when Iowa was plus 130 to win the tournament. I love the bracket. I love the way that it's set

Starting point is 00:18:02 up with the injuries to Indiana. Don't even have the opportunity to avenge that loss. But now with the chance to beat up Michigan, man, that's going to be a likely scenario again. Whoever it is between Maryland and in the championship game in Nebraska, you feel great about the opportunity in that one. If it is Nebraska, and I think I'm hoping I'm not alone, that'll be the Huskers waiting there after what happened in Lincoln here a few weeks back and get another shot against them. And then you got a week to get right.

Starting point is 00:18:30 I mean, you got an opportunity to get off your feet. We'll see about Molly Davis and what her availability is going to be for the NCAA tournament. If it isn't for the first round or two, if she's back for a sweet 16 run, those kinds of things. And the other part, I was playing now for a number one seed and though they won't have the same kind of opportunities for quality victories, you had a Big Ten Tournament

Starting point is 00:18:49 Championship. For what they've already done this season, you look at the metrics, you look at the numbers, you look at the quad one wins, look at all these different things, and they stack up incredibly well for this Iowa team in comparison to what's kind of happening across the country. And because of that, there's a real opportunity here. Late night tonight, it was USC getting the win against UCLA in overtime. Does that push UCLA down likely to a two? I think so. The path is there.

Starting point is 00:19:19 I think you root against Texas in the Big 12. Maybe you root for UConn to get knocked off in the Big East. It's going to be tough to do, but that's kind of what you're looking for there. South Carolina, we know, is going to be a one seed. I think Stanford is in really good shape. If he can get up, though, to that number three overall seed, what does that mean? It means he'll stay away from South Carolina for as long as possible. Yes, I would beat him a year ago. It took a ridiculous game plan, a ridiculous game from Kaitlin Clark, and just enough moxie to pull that one off in the first game of the Final Four. To do it two years in a row, though, let's wait as long as possible. How about that?

Starting point is 00:19:54 Let's wait as long as possible for that to happen. And if you do get the number three seed, that means staying on the other side of the bracket. You get the number two overall seed, likely Stanford, in the Final Four. We're way ahead of ourselves, but that's what you're playing for here. I think a chance is there for the Hawkeyes to do just that. The weekend ahead,

Starting point is 00:20:13 we talked about the matchup for what happens in the Iowa men and how important that one is. We'll look at the baseball team, the wrestling team, and the Hawkeye Collective, Iowa Swarm. Hoo-hoo.

Starting point is 00:20:28 They got a chance to make a little more money. We'll tell you more about that as we continue. This is Locked on Hawkeyes. When you're hiring for your small business, you want to find quality professionals that are right for the role. That's why you have to check out LinkedIn Jobs. LinkedIn Jobs has the tools to help find the right professionals for your team faster and for free. As a small business owner, LinkedIn Jobs has helped me a couple of different times.

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Starting point is 00:21:42 making the process even easier and quicker. Two and a half million small businesses use LinkedIn for hiring. Post your job for free at linkedin.com slash lockdown college. Again, that's linkedin.com slash lockdown college to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. Trey, kind of back with you one final time on the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. A little potpourri here. We'll get the wrestling team out at Maryland.

Starting point is 00:22:10 They will get it going. We talked about the seeding process earlier in the week. Drake Ayala, what was happening there with the preseeds. Some chicanery perhaps up. Iowa, qualify everybody. Let's get everybody there to the NCAAs and let's chase the team trophy. It's not what we want as Iowa wrestling fans. You're always talking about national championships

Starting point is 00:22:30 and that reality. Let's see Riel Wood, speaking of that, get back to 100% and wrestling at his highest level. He's the number three seed. Really what I'm going to be keeping an eye on coming up this weekend at the Big Ten tournament with Maryland. Baseball team, they

Starting point is 00:22:46 were up 4-0 against Jacksonville State, a series that at minimum they have to win. A sweep would be huge. Get a road sweep. That would be really good for the resume right now. Now the slow start, the bullpen issues, but with the suspended game, that means that you're going to have to go into that bullpen right away, even with a 4-0 lead. Then after that, two more games still in front of them. Then on top of it, you have the midweek game that is on Tuesday against Georgia. That Georgia team that's off to a really good start. Georgia has not played the most difficult of schedules. Still, it's an SEC team off to a good start.

Starting point is 00:23:19 That can be a quality resume-building victory if Iowa can find a way. Still a lot ahead of them. I'm not out on this season by any way. Preseason top 25. Are they going to live up to that? It's going to be difficult, but this week here and these next three and a half games, if you will, the importance of them, if Iowa's going to be at minimum a team that can fight to be in the NCAA tournament as an at-large team and do it without winning the Big Ten tournament. This week, these three and a half games are going to go a long, long way to make that happen. Well, I'm going to be on a bit of a trip, taking a trip with the family,

Starting point is 00:23:52 heading down to St. Louis for a couple of days, but I'll still be with you, probably from a hotel room on Sunday night after the Iowa-Illinois games. Just so looking forward to that one and an opportunity for this Iowa men's team, likely going to be culminating on the women's side with the Big Ten Championship. I think they're, I hate to say it, cinched. There's no such thing as a lock. This feels pretty good for the Iowa women. And we'll see what happens as well in the wrestling, the baseball front.

Starting point is 00:24:17 We got you covered. Your team every day. We do it on the Hawkeyes. Not just here with the Hawkeyes, though. Your favorite Major League Baseball team as we are now inside of a month until opening day for Major League Baseball. We got you covered there. You're an NFL fan, the NFL draft, your favorite team. We got you covered there.

Starting point is 00:24:33 NBA, NHL, your team every day. That's what we do here across the Lockdown Network. Also want to let you know, Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube, and now it's here and available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app. Lockdown Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Lockdown, plus our national shows covering every league. Find Lockdown Sports Today now available on the free Fire TV channels app.

Starting point is 00:25:05 Have a great weekend. Great talking with you. We'll do it again on Monday, recapping the weekend that was, and hopefully a lot of big victories for the Iowa Hawkeyes. We'll talk to you again then. Go Hawks.

Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - INSTANT REACTION: Iowa rolls into the Semis, Huge opportunity for Hawkeye men

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