Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa Basketball beat Wisconsin in OT, how's the tournament resume?

Episode Date: February 19, 2024

Trent Condon returns for another busy week of the Locked on Hawkeyes Podcast.A look at the Iowa win over Wisconsin in overtime as the Hawkeyes find a way after blowing a 9 point lead in the final minutes.Then a deep dive into the NCAA Tournament resume and what Iowa still needs to do in order to get into the Big Dance.Then some talk as Iowa baseball goes 2-1 in Florida and the wrestling team wraps up a home with senior day and a win over Wisconsin.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!IbottaRight now, Ibotta is offering our listeners $5 just for trying Ibotta by using the code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE when you register.LinkedInThese days every new potential hire can feel like a high stakes wager for your small business. That’s why LinkedIn Jobs helps find the right people for your team, faster and for free. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com/lockedoncollege. Terms and conditions apply.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelNew customers, join today and you’ll getONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.eBay MotorsWith all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to turn your car into the MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Iowa gets its first quad one victory of the season over Wisconsin over the weekend. What does it mean to their NCAA tournament chances? We break it down today. Locked on Hawkeyes. You are locked on Hawkeyes. Your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your team every day.

Hey, welcome in. I'm Trent Condon, and this is the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen every day. We're available wherever you find podcasts. You can also find us on YouTube. While you're there, make sure you hit that subscribe button. It helps us get in front of more Hawkeye fans. These days, every new potential hire can feel like a high-stakes wager for your small business. That's why LinkedIn Jobs helps find the right people for your team faster and for free. Post your job for free at linkedin.com slash locked on college terms and conditions apply.

Fun Saturday inside Carver Hawkeye Arena as the Hawkeyes get it done in overtime. 88-86 over the hated Wisconsin Badgers. Look, anytime you can get a win against Wisconsin, it doesn't matter the sport, football, basketball, field hockey, soccer, baseball. Well, they don't play baseball. Whatever it is, it's always good to soccer, baseball. Well, they don't play baseball. Whatever it is, it's always good to beat Bucky. And that was a good one there. You know, this Wisconsin program and what they've developed into really over the last 25, 30 years has been something that I always wanted to emulate.

Now, not style of play, though they tried it with Todd Licklider. We know what a disaster that was. It's just in terms of wins, you know, playing for a national championship year after year, the consistency of being an NCAA tournament team. What, 23 of the last 25 tournaments, Wisconsin has been there. And not only getting there, but then also having some success. And years that they, of course, had the big anticipation and beating Kentucky and getting to the championship game.

Years where they just get into the tournament, yet still make a run and get into the second weekend. Those are the kind of things I think us as Iowa fans would love to see this program elevate to. It's an outstanding program. They have done it with a multitude of coaches now, and they've done it with varying different styles. But ultimately, you know what you're going to get from Wisconsin.

Now, defensively, this is not the same Wisconsin team, but we're not worried about that. Iowa got the win. And I want to start with the crowd. You know, a crowd that gets in there, you get a packed house, over 15,000 in attendance. All right, great. Something that hasn't happened this season. We have not seen those kinds of crowds inside of Carver for men's games. We've seen it for the women's team. We've seen it certainly for wrestling. We have not seen it for men's basketball. And after the game, listening to a number of the players and even Fran talk about the crowd and having it there, and potentially this could be some momentum to get people for the final couple of home games of the year out there and get a little bit of excitement going. You've got a young group that's incredibly talented. We're going to talk about that young

group here coming up in our conversation about the game. But just getting them out there and having the players relay how important it was, get them over the hump. You get down 13 points and you come roaring back at the end of the first half. You have a low, even in overtime. Getting that victory and doing that and having the crowd be a part of it, I think it was something great to see. It really was. And it's tough. Look, I know that not everybody has the means to be able to make it happen. But just to see that the way the attendance is cratered, as we talked about, John Steppe over with the Cedar Rapids Gazette did a great job of getting the numbers of not just tickets sold inside of Carver Hawkeye Arena, but also finding out the actual number that we've seen of tickets scanned.

And that number is scary. I get it. The fan base, you want more from this program. I understand. I know where you're coming from. I know the frustration of March. Now, when you look back at this program, and there's been opportunities, the one that still probably stings the worst to me is the 2022 team.

And just the absolute egg that they laid in the NCAA tournament, coming on the heels of winning the Big Ten tournament, winning four games in four days, beating Purdue in the championship game, and then to go to and just get run out of the building by Richmond. That second half was weird. You had Keegan really struggling in the game. That was one. I think there was a path there. I really believe if Iowa would have won that game, they would have went on. They would have beat Providence. They would have been in the sweet

16. Now, would that have cured everything? I don't think so. I don't think just a second weekend appearance would all of a sudden take a huge portion of the fan base and make them just wrap their arms around Fran and say, all right, everything's good now. Because we know that fan bases as a whole were fickle. And it's what have you done for me lately? This program has done a lot. Five consecutive NCAA tournaments. And yes, I do consider if there was a tournament played in 2020, I was a projected sixth seed that season. Yes, they would have been an NCAA tournament team. Five straight. Dr. Tom didn't do that. season, yes, they would have been an NCAA tournament team. Five straight. Dr. Tom didn't do that. So we've been to that level, but getting over the hump. And yet the fans haven't showed up at the same level. And hey, you're speaking with your wallets and wanting something different. Now,

as we know in the past, something different doesn't always work. Dr. Tom to Steve Alford, take a step back. Steve Alford to talk lit, lit, lit, lit, lit, Claire, take an even further step back. So there is no guarantee that all of a sudden a new coach is going to be better. In fact, I would argue the likelihood is that the next coach that Iowa gets after Fran, it's after this season, it's after five years, whoever the next one is,

likely isn't going to be as successful as him. Now, there could be a run in March, and maybe that's all that you want to see. For me, I want to see year in and year out a good basketball team. And that's what we got. This has been the step back. You know, this has been the one that kind of reminds you at times of 2018. Now, it hasn't cratered at the same level, but that's kind of where we are. All right, let's get back into the game and talk a little bit about that, because there's a lot of fun aspects to it. The play of Tony Perkins in the second half, he was outstanding, bullying his way into the paint, getting in there,

knocking down shots. Of course, the game winner in overtime, the difference. But remember, he had 18 in the game. He only had two in the first half. And he was really, really big of getting to the rim and being able to change things. And Owen Freeman, number one, when you look at this offseason, what it's going to be. I don't think there's any doubt. We've talked about a little bit in the past and we'll continue talking about what we need for this program and what's it going to take in roster construction to get them back at the level that they've been the last couple of years and at least be at minimum an NCAA tournament team. And we talked about, do you have a point guard on the roster or do you have to go into

the portal for that? Do you need another portal center to help out? Or are you good with Owen Freeman playing the five and going that direction? Is that a route that you're willing to go? But Owen Freeman, 20 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 4 block shots. He does it all and being out there for 38 minutes. Now that's incredibly important, as we know, because foul trouble has been probably the one thing that has been able to handicap Owen Freeman this year.

He is an outstanding talent. And you're number one, a number one, because there's going to be phone calls and there's going to be people connecting to his family and trying to connect to old AAU coaches and trying to connect to high school coaches and any kind of path that they can get and letting Owen Freeman know, we got a home for you.

And not just a home in Quad Cities. No, no. We got a home, some big basketball programs. There are going to be plenty of programs that are going to be knocking on those doors. And you say, oh, no, no, no, you can't do that. That's illegal. Come on. We know

the way that this world works. Let's live in reality. And the reality is that those conversations maybe have already happened. What has to happen for Iowa? You have to keep Owen Freeman here. He's outstanding. He's talented. And yet he's just scratching the surface of, I think, what he can eventually be. He's already so skilled as a big man, yet can he develop that outside shot? Can he knock down a 15-footer? Can he extend his range out and all of a sudden become a guy that can knock down an open three-pointer? It feels like there is so much more for his game that still can be expanded. He's the best post defender that they have on the roster. You put that along with everything else that he does. He is a good

rebounder, something that is a struggle inside. You have to find a way. Owen Freeman, you got to keep him on campus. That is number one. Josh Dix as well, played really well. Impressed by him. As we talk about a ton, he needs to be more aggressive. Eight of 11, that's what we're talking about.

It needs to be double figure shots, I believe, every game. Now, if it's off, yeah, you see your shot's not there. Okay, don't go hunting when you're not shooting it well, but that was really good. His pull-up game is outstanding. And another thing, too, credit to Peyton Sanford. Sanford, one of five from three, yet found a way to be impactful offensively.

Did it with some fadeaways and some pull-up game. Those are the little things that you have to do. When the three-point shot isn't going, and I didn't know if Peyton Sanford could ever get there. I didn't know if he had the ability to be more than just kind of a shooter offensively, but he has developed more than that. And a guy that isn't an elite-level athlete by any means,

and most of the guys that he's going up against are better athletes and better lateral quickness and leaping ability and those kind of things. He's a smart, heady player and finding a way to be able to be good offensively. Great to see. A little bit more on the game and then we're going to take a look at the NCAA tournament resume. This was a quad one victory for the Hawkeyes.

Does that change the equation of what they are and what they're going to be come NCAA tournament time? We'll talk about that as we continue. This is the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. When you're hiring for your small business, you want to find quality professionals that are right for the role. That's why you have to check out LinkedIn Jobs. LinkedIn Jobs has the tools to help find the right professionals

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Again, that's linkedin.com lockdowncollege to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. Trent Conner back with you again on the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Lockdown Hawkeyes your first listen every day. A couple of notes here

of this game. We're going to talk about the resume for the NCAA tournament. We're looking back at the win against Wisconsin again it's a quad one victory that's great all well and good uh was running some numbers though and so there's a couple websites that talk about quite often here if you're an everyday or you've heard me mention both these analytically based basketball websites Ken Pomeroy um and Bart Torvik so just named after two guys that put together their algorithms and spits those out. Ken Palm is one that is subscription-based. That's not the case for Bart Torvik.

And though, yes, we won't hold against him, I believe he's a Wisconsin guy, he has not just the numbers and analytics and talking about offensive and defensive efficiency, he's also got a bunch of tools on there that you can kind of play around with. One of them is you can play around with basically projecting forward what it would take for your team and what it would do NCAA seeding wise. So as we know, Iowa sits at 15 and 11. As they sit here still with the losing record in the Big Ten, 7 and 8. Their net as of Monday is 67. Alright, that's the basic tenets of the resume. Against Quad 1, they're 1-7, 5-3 against Quad 2. So 8-10 against the top two quadrants.

Those are the basis of the numbers. Well, if you project forward through the rest of the season, and you get Iowa a win at home against Penn State, of course they'll be favored by 7.5 in that game. You give them even a home win at home against Penn State. Of course, they'll be favored by seven and a half in that game. You give them even a home win against Illinois in senior day in the finale there. Even that still leads them as the eighth team out of the NCAA tournament without projecting what happens in the Big Ten tournament. And you can play around with it.

You can go back and change the equation. If Iowa would have beat Michigan, would have blown that lead to Maryland, either at home or away, either one of those games, give them one more victory, what it would do, they'd still barely be on the outside looking in, but certainly would have a really good chance. What I'm telling you here is you project the numbers. Even before the Big Ten tournament, Iowa, even at three and two down the stretch, that means beating Penn State, say beat Illinois, and even a road win like at Michigan State or Northwestern, even doing that still has them well on the outside looking in. And that's before any potential bid thieves that are out there.

Now, who wins the American Conference? What happens in the Mountain West? Look at the A-10 if Dayton doesn't win it. MVC, now Indiana State's got their own set of issues. But before we know how those things happen, St. Mary's is going to be a tournament team. They don't win the West Coast Conference Tournament. Nope, there's another bid stealer that is there.

So it's still, even with that, leaves you really far out. And the likelihood, Iowa, even if they win a couple of games here down the stretch and at least improve their chances going into the Big Ten Tournament, they're going to have to go on a run. And not just go on a run, they're going to have to beat somebody good. Beat Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern, you know, a team like that towards the top just to get into the semifinals and get to Saturday. And that's probably still not enough, even with three victories.

The likelihood is not very good. In fact, the numbers are there, and the numbers bear that out. Right now, Bart Torvik gives Iowa a 3.2% chance of making the tournament. What other angle that I chased down? And it was, those teams seems like they're struggling defensively a lot more than they were at the beginning of the year. But we talked about during a lot of December and into January that this team seemed like they were playing a bit better defensively and they were not great. Let's not, you know, talk out of our minds here that this all of a sudden was a great defensive team.

We know that's not the case, but they seem to be better. The numbers bore that out. They're 121st in the country before January 19th, a month ago, as we sit here today on February 19th. 121st, not great. Better than we've seen some past years but uh a tick better since then though starting on january 20th a month ago i was defense has been bad how bad how about this 253rd in the country since january 20th that is deplorable that is hide hideous. 253. Yikes. That is a scary, scary number. Some of the reasons

for that, Ben Kricke has been exposed. We talked about him defensively. As we said last week, Fran's got it tight. He went after the offensive guy, not the defensive guy, and it's showing out right now. There's big time issues with what he's doing on that end of the floor. Plus, he's not a very good rebounder. I mean, those are two things that are definite struggles. And he saw that show up again on Saturday at times as Wisconsin was able to get a whole lot of what they wanted. Certainly inside, we saw a big performance from Kroll as he went off for 22. It was one of those performances.

Even Tyler Wall, it didn't shoot it a ton. He was battling with foul trouble. But when he was out there, he was pretty impactful on the floor. So you're seeing that happen from Crickey. And just overall, this team defensively isn't very good. One other angle I wanted to talk about is we saw play from Brock Harding. He came into the game very early. He was in there right around 17 minutes. I mean, three minutes into the game, he was out there, hit a three-pointer. That's monstrous. He's got to be able to make shots. It starts right there. You know, teams are going to sag off of him until he can prove he can be at minimum an adequate

three point shooter. So that is component number one. He made a shot, you know, nifty around the rim. He does those things now as they start to figure out a little bit of some of his tricks inside as a little guy, we'll see if those things aren't swatted away, but you know, you go back and watch him in high school when he was over at Moline and what he was able to do there, Mr. Basketball in the state of Illinois. He's just crafty. The things that you think shouldn't work, they work with him. We're still getting to the point where we got to see more. There's got to be more out there. And if you're going to be as bad defensively as this team is, If you're going to be as bad defensively as this team is, as I just mentioned, 253rd in the country over the last month,

well, we know that we're not going to get a ton of defense out of Brock Harding. He can get some steals. His quickness can be something that's good. You're going to have to play a lot more zone likely with him on the floor. But if you're already bad, go with the guy that's a plus side on the offensive end of the floor, and that's Brock Harding. The way the offense runs, the crispness of the offense when he's out there on the floor. I want to see more, and I'll be honest, I wasn't sold earlier this season.

He had some good moments, had some great passes, had a couple of good scoring games earlier this year, but I still wasn't sold. Well, as we get this deep into the season, it's about the future. The chances of an NCAA tournament are 3.2%. You got to see if he can be a point guard for you going forward. And now what you have this week, look out. It is starting tomorrow with a road trip up to East Lansing. This thing has been a house of horse throughout the years. Iowa has one victory since the Chris Street game over the last 30 years of

basketball up at East Lansing. And then it gets even more difficult. How could it be more difficult to go to Michigan State? They don't go to Purdue. They've already played there. Now we'll go to Illinois, another place that has been hideous. Now there's been some moments, there's been some great games, but eventually it usually doesn't go the way of the Hawkeyes. So that's what you have up next.

Now, all of a sudden, if you steal one of the two games this week, now we're starting to cook a little bit because next week begins with a game against Penn State at home. It'll be a big favorite in that one. You get a revenge after the road loss to Penn State when you let another one slip away. Stop me if you heard this before. And then he finished up at Northwestern and at home for Illinois. Okay.

It's not likely. Again, it's not very likely. But at least there is that sliver of hope that we have for this basketball team. Basketball. We got more basketball to talk about. We got hoops to get into, plus a little Iowa baseball, a two-in-one weekend. Pretty disappointing, though, as the one ended with a loss to Lehigh. We'll talk about that. Plus, there's a rumor out there. Kaitlyn Clark coming back for her fifth season.

You won't believe who some people or a person thinks is going to be paying for that one. We'll do that as we continue. This is the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Today's episode of Locked On Hawkeyes is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Get buckets with your first bet on FanDuel. It's America's number one sportsbook. Because right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet.

That's $150. If your bet wins, bet on all your favorite NBA players and teams with quick bets, live same-game parlays, exclusive props, a huge future menu, and so much more. Just visit fanduel.com slash locked on and shoot your shot. Once again, that's fanduel.com slash locked on. FanDuel, official partner of the NBA. Trey Connick, I'm back with you one final time on the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast thanks for making Lockdown Hawkeyes your first listen every day well it started off incredibly well for Iowa baseball as they open up the season down south get a couple of wins and a couple of

pretty decent wins to open up the season and then on, it all cratered after a good start from Cade Obermuller. He was outstanding in his start. We saw great starts from Brody Brecht, though command's still a bit of an issue in the opener. And of course, Marcus Morgan in game number two, the wheels fell off. The bullpen fell apart in the fifth inning. And then from there, Lehigh, they held on.

Iowa couldn't get guys on early in each inning and fall eight to four to Lehigh. Now this is not an atrocious Lehigh, they held on. Iowa couldn't get guys on early in each inning and fall 8-4 to Lehigh. Now this is not an atrocious Lehigh team. This was a team that was expected to be in the top half of their league this season and it's incredibly early. Right now you cannot overreact to what you're seeing as it pertains to net ratings, RPI, those kind of things. It's way too early to get into that. We'll see about Lehigh, but that's likely going to be probably a quad three, maybe a quad two loss is kind of what you're going to hope for at this point in time. And that's what you're going to be looking at for this team throughout the course of the season.

I have not seen them at this point if they have dropped out. But right now, Iowa, RPI three. Oh, that's exciting, right? Third in the country when there's almost 300 teams in college baseball. All right, that's great. It could be. We'll see. Their non-conference RPI is two. Strength of schedule, two.

Will it continue at that level? Probably not. Look, Lehigh's not bad. And that's why this is not something devastating early in the year, anything like that. Seton Hall should be pretty good. Ball State should be pretty good. Both those teams, all three of those teams,

pick to be in the top half there. A little bit of frustration, though, no doubt. Now for Iowa going forward. This is what's still in front of them. This week, they come back home, going to try to play a game tomorrow against Loras. At least a last check. That game is still scheduled. Then they go down to Jacksonville. They get Auburn, an SEC team. Then they get Virginia, who's ranked 14th in the country. Then they get Wichita,

a great power program from the past here in the Midwest. Keep it rolling. Keep it rolling and roll up the winds. We'll see what Iowa can do. Those games will be next week, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. And finally, the Iowa wrestling team on Senior Day at Carver-Hawkeye. It was a melancholy Senior Day with a number of guys honored and

guys that weren't unfortunately able to be out there on the mat because of the gambling investigation and the subsequent suspensions that were levied by the NCAA. It's still frustrating. We wonder how this exactly came to be and if there was some chicanery that was happening with the investigation. There's plenty about that. So yeah, you get the win against Wisconsin. You dominate, no surprise, beating the Badgers. And you got to be starting to wrestle a lot better going forward. Still Oklahoma State to wrap things up before we get to Big Tens.

But, just, it was an odd one. Odd moment, certainly, with the wrestling team in that. Recapping the weekend and a look to the week ahead. We will start on Tuesday. Iowa-Michigan State from East Lansing. We'll have a crossover edition with Lockdown Spartans coming up tomorrow. We will start on Tuesday. Iowa, Michigan State from East Lansing. We'll have a crossover edition with Lockdown Spartans coming up tomorrow. We'll talk some football also on that front. Michigan State with the new coaching staff. Of course, Iowa this year making the road trip out to East Lansing. We'll get a look at that and preview the basketball matchup with the Spartans. Then later in the week, we got a little recruiting. There's been recruiting news. We haven't touched

on it a whole lot on the football front. We'll get into that and also look to track down LaShawn and talk a little bit with him, everything going on with Iowa football. A busy week ahead Thursday night. The women back in action. They go to Indiana. That should be a doozy there. We will talk to you again tomorrow.

Getting ready for Iowa. Michigan State should be a fun one. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Locked on Hawkeyes.