Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa basketball releases schedule plus what the advanced analytics say about Iowa football
Episode Date: September 9, 2021We kick it off by breaking down the advanced analytics of the Iowa football team's win over Indiana on Saturday. How well did Spencer Petras do working around the pocket, who got the majority of snaps... on the defensive line, and who forced the most pressure plus did our linebackers struggle in coverage? We wrap up with a breakdown of the Iowa basketball team's schedule release.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!SweatBlockGet it today for 20% off at SweatBlock.com with promo code LockedOn, or at Amazon and CVS.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.StatHeroStatHero, the FIRST Ever Daily Fantasy Sportsbook that gives the PLAYER the ADVANTAGE. Go to StatHero.com/LockedOn for 300% back on your first play. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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You are Locked On Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes.
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Welcome back Hawkeye Nation to a Thursday morning episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeye Nation, to a Thursday morning episode of the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast,
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And on today's show, we are going to be talking about the analytics from this past week's game.
So I do want to give you a little bit of a structure about how the show is going to go
during the football season, because I think it's kind of important to know what to expect each and
every day. Typically on Mondays, we're going to be doing a quick reaction, a quick breakdown with,
and I'm going to announce it right now, LaShawn Daniels Jr. Really excited about that. Matt
Vandenberg has been joining our show for the last year.
Now we're moving on.
Matt has his own show, which is super exciting for him.
And LaShawn is going to be joining our show now going forward.
Really excited to have his perspective on the show.
He'll be joining us to do a live, not live, an instant reaction, though, to each of the games.
On Tuesdays, we're going to do an analytic and film review of the game,
breaking down more in depth what happened on Saturday.
On Wednesdays, we'll get into the press conferences, depth charts,
really focusing on Iowa and what they need to do to prep for the next game.
On Thursdays, we do our crossover episodes
or just an in-depth analysis of the opposing team
if we don't have the ability to get a crossover episode
like for some of these smaller teams.
And then Fridays, we're going to be focusing on predictions, storylines, keys to the game,
et cetera, really kind of wrapping it all up on Friday.
So that's how you can expect to find your Iowa Hawkeye information Monday through Friday.
However, we're going to do something a little bit different.
I know people are very focused on Iowa.
Also, we have a pretty good understanding of what Iowa State is and what Iowa
State does. So we don't need to do as much prep on the Iowa State Cyclones. So on today's show,
we're actually going to be talking about the Iowa Hawkeye football team and the analytics behind
this team. There's some really cool advanced analytics I want to share with you all. Talking
about some snap counts, so you can get an idea where some folks are getting slotted in at,
especially along that defensive line. Talking about some of the past rush pressure that we saw as well uh so really
excited about that and then one thing i thought was interesting was the linebacker coverage
and also our offensive blocking grades we're going to talk about all that on the show today
and of course we would not have a show if we didn't talk about spencer petras um definitely
some interesting statistics regarding spencer petras and how indiana pressured him in this game and
then finally on segment three we'll wrap up with the iowa basketball schedule that was released
we're going to break down some of those games hardest to easiest at least um from a a big school
perspective we're not going to be breaking down some of those those teams that are in the the
kemp palm 250ies and below.
So we'll be talking about that on the show today as well.
My final thing,
before we get into the show,
this is a long intro,
but I appreciate you all listening in.
Tyler Cook did sign with the bulls,
at least the training camp.
So we'll be keeping you posted on how he does in that training camp.
Let's get into the show today.
Let's get into the show though.
Today,
we're kicking it off the analytics and let's start on the defensive side. A couple of things I noticed a lot of
younger guys getting some snaps. Now I didn't have a chance to go watch back this game until later
in the week. So it wasn't, I wasn't able to go do this kind of stuff until today. But I noticed a
couple of things, a lot of young guys getting some snaps. Now it helps that Iowa basically had a blowout of Indiana.
Ethan Herkig got 16 snaps.
Louis Steck got two snaps.
Jay Higgins, 11.
Reggie Bracey, 8.
Quinn Schulte, 8.
Sebastian Castro, 8.
That was pretty exciting.
On the offensive side of the ball, Luke Lachey had 13.
We saw him in the game during actual time.
Really excited to see him there.
Matt Fagan, three snaps.
Tyler Ellsbury, three snaps.
Mason Richmond played 60 snaps.
I want to get to that in a second because that's really important to see
how his snaps aligned with Jack Plum's snaps.
Connor Colby, 12 snaps.
This one really surprised me.
Michael Mazunski, three snaps.
Now, as you might know, he was a big-time center recruit,
originally committed to Texas, decommitted from Texas,
a guy who has NFL pedigree already,
and then committed to the Iowa Hawkeyes.
And people are very excited about his ability to step in
and possibly play center right away or very soon,
especially if Tyler Linderbaum was to leave and have gone to the NFL early.
The fact that he got three snaps now means he is pushing for that playing time
as a true freshman, which is really exciting to see,
especially for Michael Misalinski out of Florida, a former three-star recruit.
Gavin Williams got the carries over the Sean Williams
after, obviously, Ivory, Kelly Martin, and Tyler Goodson.
Arlen Bruce got five snaps.egan johnson got eight snaps the more surprising thing was that jackson ritter got 14 snaps now we've heard kirk ferris talk a little bit about jackson ritter
he mentioned that jackson's in that mix but i was not expecting expecting Jackson to get 14 snaps, especially considering that on the depth
chart, it goes Tyrone, it goes Nico, Charlie, Keegan. Jackson's five or six on that, but clearly
they felt comfortable where he was. There was one play though that the ball is thrown pretty tight
in there. They did not count it as a drop but i
would consider it a drop they hit him right in the hands um couldn't come up you know couldn't
come down with the ball uh i'm not gonna dunk on the guy today needs to do better and then josiah
myman getting three snaps over elijah yelverton so that's kind of where the tight end position
seems to be shaking out uh you know elijah-time recruit as well, had 30-something offers.
We haven't seen him get a chance to really step on the field to this point.
We've actually had him on the podcast a couple times, really great kid,
so really excited for him.
But Josiah Myman seems to be making his way to that third tight end spot
at this point.
So it kind of goes Sam Laporte up, Luke Lachey,
and then Josiah
Myman out of Illinois. Moving over to the defensive side of the ball, I did want to
cover that. The defensive line has been an area that everyone was very excited about
and very curious about. How would this defensive line shake out? Well, they overall did pretty
well, but from a snap count perspective, here's who had the most snaps. And one is going to really surprise you.
I can assure you of that.
Leading the team in snaps, Zach Van Valkenburg with 51.
No surprise there.
Zach Van Valkenburg, all Big Ten.
John Wagner comes in second with 45 snaps.
Makes sense.
Former four-star recruit out of West Des Moines Valley.
A guy who's just been sitting and kind of waiting for his time,
but has great size, 270 pounds, built just like a perfect 4'3 defensive end.
Y.A. Black comes in third with snaps at 35.
Y.A. Black did not have a very good game from an advanced analytics perspective,
so it'll be interesting to see what Iowa sees on tape with Y.A. Black did not have a very good game from an advanced analytics perspective, so it'll be interesting to see what Iowa sees on tape with Y.A.
I didn't see anything that concerning,
but we'll see what happens come Saturday against Iowa State.
Logan Lee.
Sorry, actually, no, wrong.
Lucas Van Ness is fourth in snaps with 35.
Lucas Van Ness had himself a day.
A guy who Kirk Ferentz didn't necessarily talk about specifically,
but did mention these younger guys surprised him.
They did a good job.
Lucas Van Ness getting the one sack on the day.
So really exciting stuff there.
Then we get to Logan Lee.
Yeah, we have not got to Noah Shannon yet.
Logan Lee at 32 snaps.
And then Noah Shannon at 31 snaps.
So I'm going to have to go back to the tape and look at this and see why did Noah get
Luna snaps?
What were those snaps in?
That'll be interesting to see what that breaks out.
But I thought that was really interesting.
And after that, it goes down to Ethan Hercut at 16 snaps and Joe Evans at nine.
Joe Evans is the guy who was vying for starting time that Kurt Ferens noted that he really was excited for Joe Evans is the guy who was vying for starting time that Kerr Ferens noted that he really was
excited for Joe Evans that Joe Evans was a guy they were not worried about because they knew
exactly what they had in him Joe Evans is I think the second leading snap getter if you want to call
it that on this defensive line coming into the season nine snaps and only on eight pass rush
snaps was a very interesting allotment for that.
Now that could change depending on the game.
I'm not going to look into it too much now,
especially if Iowa wants to go a little more NASCAR package and the passing downs,
but Indiana wasn't running the ball too much.
So I thought it was interesting that Joe Evans wasn't in the game as much.
They weren't going to that NASCAR package,
but clearly they were really excited to get some of those younger interior defensive line in
and weren't as worried about getting some of that pass rush needs from Joe Evans.
So it'll be interesting to see how that all shakes out, but I really wanted to show you that
because the snap count does give you an idea of where the Iowa football coaches see this defensive line rolling.
Coming up on segment two, we're going to get into some more defensive uh metrics some missed tackle stuff
uh some linebacker play that looked a little bit more questionable when you think about it
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All right, y'all.
And we are back for segment two.
We're going to get into more of those advanced analytics.
Again, we kind of wrapped up with some defensive pressures or some defensive snaps and some young guys.
And guys, from a pressure perspective, Zach Van Valkenburg, Noah Shannon,
and Lucas Van Ness had four pressures each out of 15 combined pressures. So a pressure is either a sack, a QB hurry, or a QB hit.
That all counts as a pressure.
And those guys led the team with four each.
So very exciting stuff there.
Again, Zach Van Valkenburg was a guy I was a little bit concerned about
coming into this season because all the eyes were going to be on him. Last year, Davian Nixon was there.
You all said Chauncey Golston. Jack Heflin was tying up blocks for days. Zach Valkenberg was not
getting the lion's share of the attention there. And now he is, and he's still able to be productive,
which is really exciting to see. That defensive line is really important to free up our linebackers. And now
I have been on record saying I'm very excited about this linebacker group,
Seth Benson, Jack Campbell, and Justin Jacobs. Overall, I didn't think they played that bad of
a game. The advanced analytics do show a little bit differently though. And what I find interesting
is that the way this group lines up will be interesting as Iowa State. Seth Wallace
said they expect to be in the 4-3 more often because Iowa State has such superior tight ends
and they're going to be using them quite significantly. Plus, we need to be able to
stop the run. Well, against Indiana, Seth Benson and Jack Campbell were targeted eight times
and they allowed eight completions for 103 yards out of
the 156 total. When you look at who those completions came to though, the majority of
them were Ty Fryfogle with Peyton Hendershot, one of their tight ends getting, I believe,
two of the catches. So that's something to watch out for. Clearly, Indiana was able to scheme
these wide receivers into being on a linebacker and get open, especially Ty Fryfogle, an all-American wide receiver.
That is a mismatch for days.
Even if Iowa's a man, that is not a good coverage situation.
Now, to be fair, when you look at these advanced analytics, sometimes you are not aware, the person grading these, are not aware of where that linebacker's responsibility begins and ends
so there's a little bit of give and take with these statistics but it's something I'm going
to be watching against Iowa State as these guys will be lining up on tight ends as will Justin
Jacobs and if I'm Iowa State I'm trying to figure out a way to get more wide receivers in there and
keep Iowa in their base 4-3 and find that zone and find that area where
we can get some big plays. Missed tackles is also kind of an issue. It's the first game of the
season, so that's to be expected, but 10 missed tackles, two by Seth Benton alone, so I'll be
interested to see how that kind of cleans up a little bit. As Kirk said, they have things they
need to improve. We know that. Missed tackles, fumbles, drops.
Those are all things Iowa needed to improve
and the fact they still won by such
a big margin goes to show you just how
advanced this team is already. They
cleaned those things up. That's an even bigger
game. Now going into Iowa State, you
need to clean those things up. Iowa hasn't
had a turnover in years against
Iowa State. They need to keep it
that way. That's a very important thing coming into this game.
You don't want to give Iowa State momentum at Jack Trice Stadium.
It'll be really important for Spencer Petras to be able to clean
and keep things clean.
He didn't have a single turnover-worthy throw against Indiana.
A turnover-worthy throw, so for example, Michael Penix Jr.,
I believe had seven or eight turnover-worthy throws,
meaning he threw the ball and it probably should have been picked off.
It wasn't.
We had a couple drops on the defensive side of the ball.
Spencer did not have a single turnover-worthy throw.
He needs to keep that up.
Last year, he struggled.
So can he keep that up?
Again, on the secondary side, I thought our secondary played outstanding.
It was mentioned even during the broadcast that the teams felt like it seemed like teams were targeting Riley
Moss Matt Hankins only targeted four times he primarily lined up on Ty Fryfogle Riley Moss
was targeted seven times and allowed zero receptions so I really like how our secondary
is breaking out Iowa seemed to play a little bit more man, which is interesting, and I'll be interested to see if they do that against Iowa State,
maybe not given the tight end and having to put your linebackers in coverage,
but we'll see there.
Offensive blocking grades.
Everyone was very concerned about our offensive line, how would this check out.
Nick DeJong had an 81.6 pass blocking grade,
which is really great to see from a former walk-on.
Cody Ince had a 67.5 pass blocking grade, which is really great to see from a former walk-on. Cody Ince had a 67.5 pass blocking grade.
What I find interesting about these grades is that they weren't that good.
Iowa was allowing a lot of pressure from Indiana.
Now, Indiana blitzed quite a bit, but Iowa has a lot to clean up,
and I thought that actually goes to show that Spencer Petras did a pretty good job
given how much pressure was in him and the pocket.
Mason Richman, a 57 passing grade.
Tyler Linderbaum, a 47.2 pass blocking grade.
And Justin Brett, a 26.3 pass blocking grade.
He allowed two pressures.
Now how this all works out, 50 is average.
Anything below that's bad.
Anything above that is getting into better, better, better, and good.
It's graded on a 0-1-2 scale. I think
there might be a minus one. Zero did your job. One, you did a solid job. Two, you did a great job.
Push your guy back, had no pressure at all. And they average all that out to give you a grade for
the game. So it's all graded on each individual thing. Now it's important to note that they don't know
what the offensive line is schemed to do.
So some of these things, again, there's some give and take with this.
There's been times where I've noticed a guy who had three sacks
and graded out as like a 23 overall pass rusher, which is terrible.
He had three sacks.
He still had a pretty darn good game,
regardless of how you graded out his other opportunities.
So it doesn't weight the big things as well, and it doesn't weight the bad things as poorly to make it kind of an average.
So it really prides itself on how consistent you are each and every play in an individual battle.
Offensive line play is not an individual battle, though.
So that was interesting.
Moving on to Spencerencer petrus um
and then we'll get to highest graded players for wrapping up some basketball talk uh again zero
turnover worthy throws one big time throw which we knew iowa wasn't pushing the ball down the field
there wasn't a lot of big opportunities and iowa secondary wasn't able to get or iowa's wide
receivers were not able to create a lot of separation so spencer petrus being smart the
ball never really made some big time throws which is basically when a ball is thrown well-timed down the field and has
excellent location. One thing to note, he wanted to get the ball out in 2.5 seconds. His average
time to throw on all drop backs was 2.86 seconds. Not bad. He's close to that and he had a lot of
pressure on him as well. And then finally, we mentioned the drops. Spencer Petras throwing under 50% completion percentage.
People are going to talk about that,
but his adjusted completion percentage was actually 60.9%.
So he's working on it.
He's getting better.
I saw a guy in the comments saying Iowa wasn't,
or he wasn't very accurate with his balls.
He still does have to improve that,
especially when he's on the run.
Some of those balls are terribly thrown when he's on the run.
But in the pocket, I thought he played pretty well,
and I thought he threw the ball where he needed to.
And there was one or two times where Iowa did make some good adjustments.
Iowa wide receivers made some good adjustments to come back and get the ball.
And then rushing success, kind of interesting, not surprising there.
Iowa had the most rushing success going behind Tyler Linderbaum and Nick DeJong.
And finally, Indiana blitzed Iowa on 14 of the dropbacks, and it wasn't good. Six pressures
without blitzing, so eight pressures on the 14 dropbacks. When they take on Iowa State,
that's something that Iowa State's going to be watching. The blitz worked. They did get a lot
of pressure on Iowa. I bet Iowa State is going to try to bring pressure at least late in the game,
early on, keep it kind of safe, make Spencer Petras find the open spot,
and then at the end try to bring that pressure later on.
So that will be interesting to watch.
And then finally, your highest graded players today, Riley Moss at 92.1,
Justin Britt at 79.7.
You know how I mentioned the bad pass blocking grade,
a phenomenal run blocking grade. Zach
and Valkenburg at 78.8. Noah Shannon
at 78.3 and Justin Jacobs
at 78. That is your top five
PFF graded players for
this past weekend. Coming up
on segment three, we're going to get into that basketball talk,
talk a little bit about that schedule, and then we will
wrap up the show.
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Let's get into our final part of the show today. Iowa basketball. We got the schedule,
which is super exciting. I'm going to place that here up in the screen here in a bit. So if you
are watching the YouTube show, that'll be up here in a second, but definitely really excited to see
that schedule. And it is, it is brutal, like absolutely brutal. We know the big 10 is going
to be good. The way this schedule shaked out, not so good for the Hawks.
So it'll be interesting to see how they handle that.
They, thankfully, have a very, very easy non-conference schedule.
They do have the Big Ten ACC crossover versus Virginia.
They do get a Utah State team that was pretty solid last year.
And Iowa State is going to rebound.
They have several transfers, some solid players.
But outside of that, all of their teams are pretty low in Kempom.
If you are not familiar with Kempom,
Kempom is basically the advanced analytics way of analyzing basketball teams.
It gives you a pretty good output of how good or bad these teams are.
There are 352 teams, I think, in Kempom's analytics.
I'll need to check that to confirm.
two teams, I think, in Ken Palm's analytics.
I'll need to check that to confirm.
Basically, anything below 120, 130 is probably not a very good team.
Anything below 200 is a bad team.
300 is terrible.
All of Iowa's non-conference games outside of Virginia, Iowa State, and Utah State last year were below 250s.
So it's good for Iowa to have those kind of warm-up games, but the Big
Ten is going to be absolutely
brutal. Let me pull up that schedule here, though,
and I'm going to talk through this.
The hardest part is that opening part of the
season. They get Virginia, Purdue,
Illinois, and Iowa
State in about a two-week
span. Sorry, my voice is going out there for a second,
but let me pull this up.
As you can see, here's my rankings of these games, the big games, not the obviously the
smaller games, but we have Purdue at Purdue, at Michigan, at Illinois, at Maryland, at Ohio State.
Those are top 25 teams. Then we get Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Maryland at home, that's 10 games
against top 25 teams, Virginia, not a team that is typically, or that is having as much praise
coming into the season, but they are typically a very good team, going on the road to Virginia,
not easy for a young Iowa basketball squad, following up we get at Rutgers, Rutgers not
ranked, but still have a lot of veterans
returning, which will be good for them. Indiana is a team that's getting a little bit of love in
the top 25, but thankfully we only have them at home. Wisconsin is not going to be as good this
year. We get them on the road. Followed by Iowa State, Nebraska, Minnesota. Again, none of those
teams, we should be able to beat all those teams. Should. But on the road, never easy. Finally, we get Utah State, Nebraska at Penn State versus Minnesota
versus Penn State versus Northwestern.
When I look at this, I would say anything below 12, Iowa should win.
Should.
Should be favored in.
That's, let me see, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20.
That is 11 games Iowa should be favored in.
Above that, I don't know if Iowa will be favored in any of these games,
depending on how they do, right?
Because you're going to get the Michigan States, the Maryland, Illinois.
You're going to get them later on in the season.
So there is a chance.
Now, to be fair, Illinois is actually home early on in the season,
but some of these games are going to be coming later on in the season,
so Iowa might be favored depending on how they are doing at that point.
But that, to me, is going to be very interesting.
This is quite a brutal schedule, and Iowa is going to be favored
in maybe 50% of it.
That's not ideal.
A young team, I do think they have the potential.
I think they have the length.
I think they're going to be bringing a lot of defensive energy this year.
Offensively, that is the biggest question mark.
Can the transfer, Phillip Obracha, show up?
How does Josh Ogundale play?
Jordan Bohannon, will he shoot better?
Being basically a C.J. Frederick in that regard,
getting a lot of balls off screens and really getting the ball or the play designed to give him the ball to shoot with some space?
How does Patrick McCaffrey continue to develop?
How does Keegan Murray continue to develop?
Will Chris Murray show what we've been talking about for a while?
Is he going to be a big-time player?
And then is Joe Toussaint ready to step up and be that point guard? Tony Perkins
is a fantastic depth at shooting guard. I'm excited to see him play, but again,
depth is going to be huge. The inexperience is definitely there. Can Iowa figure it out early on?
That'll be tough because they have some really bad non-conference games
followed by a brutal stretch of getting a Purdue team that's ranked in the top 10,
a Virginia team that's always tough at home, Iowa State,
which is always a tough non-conference game, except for last year,
and then Illinois at home, who is going to be a top 25 team as well.
What a brutal schedule.
I'm excited for it, though I cannot wait for basketball season as well.
We are back into the groove of things.
Iowa football is taking place.
Iowa basketball is a couple months away.
All the other Iowa sports are absolutely crushing, and we'll try to start
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And as you know,
that does do it for our show today.
That is the wrap of our show today.
We will be back tomorrow,
giving you some storylines to watch out for,
for this Iowa state game,
telling you a little bit more about this Iowa state team and what to
expect,
and then giving you our predictions for the game.
So make sure to tune into that as always Hawkeye nation.
I appreciate you listening in.
I appreciate your love,
your support. And just a reminder that on Monday, we have a Sean Daniels joining us. That is going Hawkeye Nation, I appreciate you listening in. I appreciate your love, your support.
And just a reminder that on Monday, we have LaShawn Daniels joining us.
That is going to be exciting to have him on the show,
helping us break down this game.
And no love lost here.
Go follow Matt's new podcast with his wife, Laura.
That is going to be a fun podcast to listen to as well.
As you all know, I do support some of the Iowa Hawkeye podcasts out here.
And I think you've got to go check out Matt and Laura's.
It is going to be really phenomenal.
Thank you all for tuning in.
Have a phenomenal Thursday, and as always, Hawkeye Nation, let's go Hawks.