Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa Football: A Kirk Ferentz Swan Song?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Is this the end for Kirk Ferentz as Iowa football coach? We dissect. Is this the final go around for Kirk on the Hawkeye sidelines? And take a look at the worst case scenario for Iowa football in 2024. All today, Locked on Hawkeye. You are Locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey, welcome in.

Starting point is 00:00:33 I'm Trent Condon, and this is the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen every day. We're available wherever you find podcasts, and you can also watch us on YouTube. While you're there, make sure you hit the subscribe button. Helps us get in front of more Hawkeye fans. If you're listening on the audio side, five-star reviews. Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Make every moment more as the playoffs have finished up in NBA and NHL. The sports stop sporting like we want them to, but this summer, FanDuel is hooking up all customers with a boost or a bonus daily. That's right. There's something for everyone every day all summer long.

Starting point is 00:01:11 Visit FanDuel.com slash locked on to get started. We start today with a look towards the football season upcoming this year. And if this very well could be the end for Kirk Ferentz. Now, this is a conversation that has been had for years and years now as we approach the football season and a month from today Kirk Ferentz will turn 69 years old. He has made a lot of trips around the planet. He has been very successful as the Iowa head coach but as coaches age it is always a question that will linger out there. You go back to many of the longtime

Starting point is 00:01:45 coaches. You look at somebody like Joe Paterno late in his career and all the questions that surround in the program as the changes in college football were happening at that time and a program that took a big step back in his later years. We seen Bo Schembechler, you go back to his days and the ascension that eventually happened and taking over for Bo. And we can go on and on with these coaches as you get to this point. We saw it recently with Nick Saban walking away, even after an appearance in the college football playoff this year and losing a heartbreak breaker against Michigan.

Starting point is 00:02:14 It happens and Kirk is not going to be here forever. So I bring this up for a couple of reasons. And the first one is, I think at the forefront of this, this is going to be a really good Iowa football team with what they returned defensively this season, what they have been able to do year in and year out on that side of the football. You know that this team is going to be at the forefront of that. They are going to be an elite defensive team year after year, regardless of what EA Sports says or any prognosticator, we know that the Iowa

Starting point is 00:02:45 defense is going to be good. They have proven it year in and year out and returned nine starters from what they were a year ago. They're going to be in really good shape. You look at that defense, you start up front. Deontay Craig, I think a bounce back season is going to be there for him. Ethan Hurkett, we haven't seen a ton of him, but when he has been out there, he's been impactful. In the middle with Aaron Graves, who still has his best football in front of him, and Y.A. Black, and we saw what an impactful player he can be this past season. The linebacker group as good as anybody in college football with Nick Jackson and Jay Higgins. Jay Higgins, some people believe, is going to be National Player of the Year defensively.

Starting point is 00:03:22 Preseason pub coming in for him. Nick Jackson might end his career as the all-time leader in tackles in college football history. That's the level that he has played at. We saw Nick Jackson this past season just take such a huge step forward in the back half of the year. A defensive backfield with Sebastian Castro playing that cash position. A defensive backfield including Deshaun Lee, Jamari Harris, depth with John Nestor and TJ Hall. Your safeties was Xavier Wampa and Quinn Schulte. This is an elite level defense and with it, they're going to be really good. You have an offense that, well, okay,

Starting point is 00:03:57 it can't be worse than they were a year ago. And I anticipate at minimum, they are going to be certainly better. And I think they're going to be okay this year. Now, okay might not be good enough to put together a year where they finish with nine, 10 wins. And we can have that argument. And we'll talk about that certainly going forward here, but that is out there. This is going to be a very good team. They invested their NIL funds and bringing guys back for another season. That's why you have guys like Nick Jackson and Jay Higgins and Sebastian Castro and Quinn Schulte all coming back for another year. If Tim Lester can get this offense figured out and get them at least being able to actually play

Starting point is 00:04:34 complimentary football, something that Kirk Ferentz strives for, at least tells us he strives for, you're going to be in really good shape. Now, you are going to have a good football team. Will it show up in the win-loss record? We will see on that front. But this is why I'm going this direction.

Starting point is 00:04:50 Because I think we know and listening and hearing from Kirk Ferentz throughout the years that as the college football landscape changes and evolves, somebody that he coached with, Nick Saban, walking away back in their days in Cleveland with the Browns. When you see that happening around him, and now you look at the additions of the four West Coast schools with Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA coming in, the West Coast has not been a place that has been kind to Kirk Ferentz. You go back to the drilling in 2004, the last Big Ten championship team that Kirk Ferentz has had, that team got absolutely run out of the building

Starting point is 00:05:25 against Andrew Walter and Arizona State in just a dreadful, dreadful night in Arizona, in Tempe in that one. Then they went out to Arizona a couple of years later, played in Tucson. It was Nick Foles at the helms for that Arizona team, and they blew a very winnable game and a very, very talented team that certainly should have been better than what their final record was. West Coast hasn't been good. And then, of course, we have the one Rose Bowl appearance under Kirk Berenson. I think most of us realize how that one went against Stanford. That's not to say that they can't win on the West Coast,

Starting point is 00:05:56 that it's an impossible task for them to do. I think they will win this year on the West Coast when they head out to L.A. to take on UCLA in November. I think they'll win that game and win it decidedly, And you're going to see a lot of black and gold in the stands for that one. But we know it's not his favorite thing. So you have that component, the new Big Ten, the new structure of college football. And here's the most important thing. I don't think there's a doubt in my mind that this is going to be Iowa's best chance of having a really good season for the force field future. I mentioned what they have going forward, right? And what they have for this year's

Starting point is 00:06:32 team. This is an excellent team on paper, returning starters. So top three in the country in terms of returning starters from a year ago and a schedule that is very advantageous for having a great season. A non-conference schedule, all in Kinnick Stadium, Illinois State, Iowa State, and Troy. Iowa State game is going to be tough, a toss-up type game, but Iowa certainly, you can't come up with a much better schedule than what they have. Troy, one double-digit games a year ago, they also lost their coach and a bunch of players off that team. A Big Ten slate that,

Starting point is 00:07:09 yes, you have to go to Ohio State, and that's difficult, but there's no Michigan, there's no Penn State, there's no Oregon this season. It sets up incredibly well. And here's the other part of that, and why this very well could be it for Kirk Ferentz at the helm, where he, if they have a successful season, decides to walk away. Let's play this game. Let's say Iowa goes 10-2 this year. I don't think that's a huge stretch to think that Iowa could go 10-2 this year. I don't. Lose to Ohio State, pick your other loss that they have. Maybe it's at home against Wisconsin.

Starting point is 00:07:40 Maybe it's against Nebraska to end the season. Maybe they get tripped up at Michigan State or even Iowa State. Whatever it is, 10-2. Put that out there. 10-2 very well could be good enough to be in the college football playoff. And if they go 10-2, even lose their first game in the college football playoff, or go in 10-2 and lose their bowl game, finish the season at 10-3, that puts Kirk Ferentz's career record at 218 wins and 143 losses. You Yes, why is that even coming up, Trent? Here's why. The College Football Hall of Fame.

Starting point is 00:08:11 In order to be considered a Hall of Famer, you have to have a win percentage over 60%. Coming into this season, Iowa and Kirk Ferentz, his winning percentage when you couple together his years at Maine along with what he's done in Iowa City, his win percentage is 59.77%. A 10-3 record would give him that mark to be able to retire, move on, coach offensive line of code, whatever he wants to do in his retirement, quote unquote.

Starting point is 00:08:40 And then you have a guy that is eligible for the college football hall of famer now i don't think that's what makes kirk ferentz tick i don't think that that is a huge huge factor for him however in a team that likely is going to lose eight nine maybe ten starters on the defense to the nfl you're going to lose seven eight maybe nine starters out of your offense next year. 2025 is going to be a rebuilding year for Iowa football. It is also a year where Iowa goes to Iowa State, goes to Nebraska, goes to Wisconsin, goes to USC, also has to make a road trip all the way out to Rutgers. Oh, by the way, coming into Kinnick next year,

Starting point is 00:09:20 you're going to have, oh, Oregon, Penn State, Minnesota will come in, Michigan State, Indiana's the other team. It is an incredibly difficult schedule in 2025. And if that's a rebuilding year, even 2026 is not an easy cup of tea. In 2026, Iowa's Big Ten slate includes road trips to Minnesota, Northwestern, all the way up to Seattle to take on Washington. They go to Illinois, Michigan on the road in Ann Arbor at Michigan Stadium, home games against Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin. This is not a cakewalk by any means.

Starting point is 00:09:56 This is Iowa's best season to have a big season, a chance for Kirk Ferentz to go out a big time winner. And in the first year of a 12 team playoff, a real opportunity to walk away and maybe one of Iowa's best chances in the foreseeable future of being a playoff team. You have to do it. You have to make it happen. And that's the component.

Starting point is 00:10:15 This very well could be it for Kirk Ferentz if it plays out in that fashion. We continue. We're talking about best-case scenario here. Iowa in the college football playoff. What's the worst-case scenario, though, for Iowa football? We'll talk about that as we continue. We're talking about best case scenario here. I win the college football playoff. What's the worst case scenario, though, for Iowa football? We'll talk about that as we continue. This is Locked on Hawkeyes.

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Starting point is 00:11:48 Trey kind of back with you once again here on the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. As always, thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen every day. Well, as we continue, it's time to take a look at the worst case scenario. We're laying out the best case scenario. Iowa winning double digit games, getting into the college football playoff. It all goes well, but how can this go poorly for Iowa football? We talked about the schedule and it is.

Starting point is 00:12:14 It sets up incredibly well. Is Iowa going into Columbus and winning this year? I just don't see it. I don't see a way. Ohio State is going to be loaded offensively as they are each and every year. If they can figure out the quarterback position, if it's Will Howard or if it's somebody else, they're going to be set up to be dynamic there.

Starting point is 00:12:30 But it's not just about the offense this year for Ohio State. That defense is also going to be ridiculous. We know that one more than likely. I mean, we're talking about a 95% versus 5% chance of Iowa going in and winning that game in Columbus. However, the other games, a lot of them toss-ups, and I think in our mind because of what history has said here lately, Iowa's going to win these close games. But we saw a year ago, bounce didn't go their way, a call didn't go their way, and Iowa loses to Minnesota for the first time in the Phil Fleck era against Nebraska.

Starting point is 00:13:03 Look, we needed a kick from a guy that never kicked a football before in an Iowa Hawkeye uniform to beat the Huskers a year ago. I think Nebraska is going to be great again defensively. We'll see about what they are offensively. I think Matt Rule, though, he's got this thing turned in the right direction,

Starting point is 00:13:17 something that I rarely see happening. The road trips to Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, none of them are overly daunting by any means, but they're all road games. For UCLA, it's a quick turnaround. After coming off a game against Wisconsin, you got to get on a plane, get out there early for the Friday night game against UCLA. Playing again, as we talked about at the top, that hasn't been exactly great for Kirk Ferentz

Starting point is 00:13:40 coach teams playing on the West Coast. That trip to Maryland is going to be odd just because, well, it's a road trip to Maryland, which still feels weird a decade into them being Big Ten members, but also because Brian Ferentz is going to be on the other sideline for the Terrapins and just oddities all over the place. And could it be just one of those weird nights? I don't think Michigan State's going to be very good.

Starting point is 00:14:03 They lost a ton. Jonathan Smith has a lot to do in order to make Michigan State, certainly the program that we've seen in the ups and downs throughout the time and getting back on under one of those up highs. They got a long ways to go, but it's still a road game. Minnesota, I think Iowa's a lot better than the Gophers on paper coming into the season. But even when Iowa was winning all those games against Minnesota before last season, so many of those games were so close. It was a break. It was a bounce that went Iowa's way.

Starting point is 00:14:29 Iowa State, that is going to be a game that is nip and tuck down the wire. You can easily talk yourself into this team not winning those 50-50 games. The coin flip going the other way. And Iowa, instead of sitting even at 8-4, 9-3, is looking up and maybe fighting for bowl eligibility going into the final stretch. And they got to win two of their last three against UCLA, Maryland, and Nebraska. I think that absolutely can happen. The other thing when you're talking about the worst case scenarios for Iowa football

Starting point is 00:14:56 this year is just the way that they're built and the way that this offense is. You anticipate there's going to be growing pains. Yes, they should be better because it can't be worse than what they've been offensively. But this offensive line, we've been hearing now for the last couple of years that they're going to be improved. They're going to be better. And yes, they were better as a run blocking unit last year, but they didn't set the world on fire. We're not talking about a team that was averaging at 4.7, 4.8 yards per carry. That's not what they were a year ago, even being improved.

Starting point is 00:15:26 How long is it going to take for this wide receiver group to get acclimated to this new system? Do they actually have the guys at the wide receiver position that can be anything more than just okay? It's hard to envision that. And now you got Caleb Brown likely back in the doghouse after his DUI last week. I mean, there's so much here that you can look at.

Starting point is 00:15:44 I don't believe these things are going to happen. And the other one is something you just can't talk about or can't anticipate is going to happen coming into the year. And that's the injury concern. Now, when we talk about Cade McNamara, that's part of the conversation with McNamara. His last two seasons were cut short because of season-ending injuries. The injury that he sustained at Michigan,

Starting point is 00:16:09 and then, of course, this past season, had the quad injury leading to his ACL tear in the game against Michigan State. This is not a guy that has shown an ability to be healthy on the field. It might not be fair, but it is reality. And it's not just the quarterback position. What if injuries do crop up at wide receiver and all of a sudden Caleb Brown gets banged up or Seth Anderson goes down? That could be a huge concern. We saw what happened last year at the tight end position. What about this offensive line that isn't very good? And then he threw a couple of injuries into that mix. And speaking of injuries, what about if injuries happen to the defense? We talk about having nine of 11 starters back from the end of last season, but the depth, there's a

Starting point is 00:16:45 lot of question marks in that depth linebacker Carson Shire. They've talked about him a ton. He hasn't been able to stay healthy. Are we sure Jaden Harrell is a guy that can play middle linebacker right now in the big 10 level? What about the defensive backfield? We like Cohen entering her. Okay. We've heard about Jen Nester, John Nestor, but we don't know at this point in time. And I think most concerning is the lack of depth that they have along the defensive line and especially at defensive tackle. It is Aaron Graves, Y.A. Black,

Starting point is 00:17:16 Jeremiah Pittman we've seen a little bit, and then a ton of questions. Guys that have been around for a while that haven't been able to make an impact like a Jeff Bowie or Will Hubert. You got Luke Gaffney out there as well, a defensive tackle. Brian Allen, a defensive end.

Starting point is 00:17:29 Okay, I think we're excited because of the little glimpses that we've seen at open practice, but he hasn't shown the ability in his limited reps to do it at a Big Ten level. The lack of depth is a concern when you're talking about this defense.

Starting point is 00:17:41 And again, if injuries crop up. How about this one? Another one is we're playing worst case scenario and how this thing can go awry this year. What about Reese Dakin? Reese Dakin comes in from Australia. He's the heir apparent to take over for Torrey Taylor at the punter position.

Starting point is 00:17:55 We know how important putter is to what Iowa does. What if he isn't very good? It's a real possibility. It absolutely can happen. And if it does, and I was not able to flip field position, that could be a huge question mark for this team coming into this season. There could be some growing pains. Maybe he's just not able to get the snap off, the putt off as quickly.

Starting point is 00:18:16 And that leads to problems. There are a lot of things that can happen there. How about Drew Stevens? Drew Stevens was on fire, on his way to maybe all Big Ten honors through the first two months of last season, and then the wheels completely fell off. He didn't get an opportunity to kick the football because Iowa didn't score in their final two games

Starting point is 00:18:33 against Tennessee in the bowl game and against Michigan in the Big Ten championship game. Drew Stevens lost his job to a guy and meter that he never kicked for Iowa before that kicked the game winner against Nebraska. Are we sure that Drew Stevens is going to bounce back in a big time way? Lot of question marks still with this football team, even with the positives. That is where we are.

Starting point is 00:18:54 That was worst case scenario. I don't want it to happen. I don't think it's going to happen, but we lay it out. Iowa baseball has a new baseball coach in the rotation. The pitching coach, a new one there. We'll talk a little bit about that. Sean Kenney, the new pitching coach for Iowa baseball, what it means for Rick Heller and company as we continue here on the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Hey, are you watching Fox Sports or ESPN on your TV all day long? You have to turn the volume down because of

Starting point is 00:19:21 all that shouting. Well, it's time for you to make the switch to Locked On Sports Today. It's a free 24-7 sports streaming channel programmed for you every day to bring you the biggest stories without all the screaming. Locked On Sports Today brings you can't miss analysis, opinions and news streaming 24-7 on YouTube or on their free Amazon Fire TV channels app. All part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. We continue with a look at baseball. This is Locked On Hawkeyes.

Starting point is 00:19:57 Back with you one final time on the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen every day. So the new pitching coach is in for Rick Heller, and he has gone to a guy that certainly has a lot of background in college, and that is Sean Kenney. He comes in from the University of Houston. Just a one-year stint as a pitching coach at the University of Houston. Helped them in a myriad of areas this season as they made the transition into the Big 12 this year. He lowered their team ERA by nearly a run a game,

Starting point is 00:20:31 cut their walks per nine from over 5.1 down to 4.79. The staff improved in strikeout to walk ratio. Strikeouts per nine went from nine to 10.3 this past season. It didn't go well for Iowa this year in the pitching. And with the expectations that came into this year with Brody Brecht at the helm, at the forefront of that rotation, he had a rough start to things.

Starting point is 00:20:54 And, you know, the control never got to the level I think that we all wanted to see. That was, I think, a big, big issue. I think that was a concern that we saw throughout the course of the year. And though he improved as the year went on, there was a lot of talk of, you figure it out. And did Brody Breck have a bunch of people in his ear? I think that was a combination. Morgan was a disappointment, huge, huge disappointment this past season from what

Starting point is 00:21:19 we saw from him. And though Obermuller was improved, he wasn't great. You couple that with the bullpen that you could say maybe cost Iowa a chance for an NCAA tournament bid over the first month, six weeks of the season, just how bad and how many blown leads that they had out of that bullpen. It improved as the year went on, but it just didn't get there. So you bring in a veteran in Sean Kenny. Now I told you I was a prop proponent of Iowa maybe thinking outside the box a little bit, going out and possibly looking at a guy like, you know, going a different route with this

Starting point is 00:21:52 one. This is fine. We'll see. It's got a lot of work to do, though. A lot of work, and the momentum that Iowa baseball had built, can you get it back? Can you get it back? You have the renovations happening at Dwayne Banks field, all the time that was invested into it,

Starting point is 00:22:09 all the work that Rick Heller did to what he thought secure the finances. And then some of those finances were pulled aside. That's got to be tough. It's got to be difficult. And with this new look, big tent with the additions of USC and UCLA and Oregon, who's been a tournament team, and Washington. It's going to get just that much more difficult now

Starting point is 00:22:28 for Big Ten baseball and for these teams on the northern side of things to make a go of it. USC, a long-time power program. Though they haven't been what they once were, it's still a place that you can get some dudes. Same thing with UCLA. Oregon has ascended. They're really good.

Starting point is 00:22:43 Washington, not to the same level. It's going to be tough. It's going to be difficult. Let's hope because something in spring to get us going after basketball season, after the wrestling season wraps up, it's great to have a relevant Iowa baseball team, something to get us excited during the springtime. This year was as frustrating as any that I can remember for Iowa baseball. And we'll see if Kenny can be a guy that can help turn around that pitching staff. And he's going to have a whole lot of new arms to all figure it out. Thanks for making Lockdown Hawkeyes your first listen every day. I want to let you know also Lockdown has launched the first ever

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Starting point is 00:23:35 on the free Fire TV channels app. A lot more coming for you. We're back from vacation. We are off and running here with another week of Lockdown Hawkeyes. As always, thanks for making Lockdown Hawkeyes your first listen every day. We'll talk to you again tomorrow. Go Hawks.

Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa Football: A Kirk Ferentz Swan Song?

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