Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa Football: How more wins are bad for the future of Hawkeye football & Hawkeye Mailbag

Episode Date: October 12, 2023

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the Iowa football team actually winning more games this year. It's a bad thing for the future of the program. What are you talking about, Trent? We'll talk about that today. We'll figure it out. And it's a Hawkeye mailbag. Your questions on Iowa football today. Locked on Hawkeyes.

You are locked on Hawkeyes. Your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your team every day. I'm Trent Condon, and this is the Locked On Hawkeyes Podcast. Thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen every day. We're available wherever you get podcasts. You can also find us on YouTube.

While you're there, make sure you hit that subscribe button. Helps us get in front of more Hawkeye fans. A big shout out to the people that have joined on recently and then hit that subscribe button. Thanks to Stuart Gray, David Barry, Jason Menken, Jake Robon, Ryan Michael, IcePrincess66, R. Weitz, and Jan Koffrin. Thanks to all of them and everybody else that's hit that subscribe button. Greatly appreciate it and helps us get in front of more Hawkeye fans. Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook, official sportsbook of Locked On. Make every moment more.

Right now, new customers can bet $5. You'll get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed. Visit FanDuel.com slash Locked On to get started. As we start today, a lingering thought has been permeating through my mind here throughout the course of the week. And for longtime subscribers, you know, I can go off on tangents. Sometimes I have wild ideas. I have theories that I like to throw out from time to time. Sometimes maybe they're worth something. Other times they could

be completely crazy. And today's thought is just this. It's a very big question about Iowa football. Look, they're a double-digit underdog this week against Wisconsin. We know Iowa can win the game there. You take the blueprint from 2015 when they went up in Madison. You put that to this one. Wisconsin shoots themselves in the foot a couple of times. You win the turnover battle. Defense plays outstanding, and you cobble enough together offensively to win the football game, and all right, you get the win. Okay, that can happen. The likelihood, though, it just doesn't happen very often with this limited offense and this system. And even if that plays out, and Iowa does lose.

So I found the numbers from respected handicapper, Kenny White. Kenny White, for a number of years during the 80s and 90s, he was the guy that set the line for college football in Las Vegas. He is a guy that has been around for a long time. His power numbers are as respected as anybody in the sports wagering industry.

And the rest of the way, this is what the point spreads would be, at least according to his numbers. Minnesota, Hawkeyes are going to be favored by nine and a half in that game from his power numbers. Iowa, a 10 and a half point favorite in the game in Wrigley Field. Iowa favored by over a touchdown against both Rutgers and Illinois at Kinnick Stadium. And then the roadie to finish things up on Black Friday against Nebraska. That game basically a pick-em from his number, showing that even if Iowa gets dropped or just loses the game against Wisconsin. If Iowa runs the table, or at worst,

goes 4-1 the rest of the way, we're talking about a team that finishes the regular season at 9-3. And the question I pose, let's say it plays out that way. Let's say Iowa loses this week to Wisconsin, even if they hang around, 20-10. All right, put that out there. 20-10 they lose. And they lose the finale to Nebraska. Same score, 20 to 10. Okay. Just for argument's sake. They win those middle games against Minnesota,

Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois. They're 9-3. They're successful in terms of wins, losses. But is that the best thing? Because we know Kirk, what he's going to go back to and what the end game is, is about winning football games. And he's absolutely right. What this is all about is winning games. That is the bottom line. It's a bottom line business. And if you're not winning football games, you're not going to stick around it. It doesn't matter if you're a high school coach. It doesn't matter if you're a junior high coach. It doesn't matter if you're like me coaching at you. Hey, I might have a job. My girls can't find a win on the softball field coming up here throughout the course of the season. It is a bottom line business and it's about wins, but we've gotten to the point now where Iowa football is just so frustrating to watch. We're talking about going on three years now where any semblance of competency offensively is just completely gone

by the wayside. We're talking about a wide receiver group that just can't catch balls anymore and the offensive system when we've gone on and around on and on about the reasons for that i would just look at these numbers right now nicaraghini eight catches for 70 yards on the year dionte vines seven catches for 63 yards seth anderson i mean he came in with fanfare i thought he was going to be a good player. And maybe he is, but he's not in the system. Five catches for 79 yards. Caleb Brown comes in from Ohio State. Doesn't have a catch.

That's what we're talking about in this wide receiver group. Think of that. That is unthinkable. It is such a slug. It is not enjoyable to watch. After the Purdue game, you get a win. It's homecoming. You get to see the black and gold at Kinnick Stadium. Afternoon game, a perfect fall day for tailgating. But it just wasn't enjoyable, at least the football on the field. The camaraderie, getting together with your friends and your family and watching the game, tailgating,

doing all those things. That's great. But the 60 minutes on the field and specifically watching this offense, it's not enjoyable. And to the point, Kirk very easily can say what he said just a year ago and all about the bottom line, right? Oh, we won nine games if it plays out in the fashion that I just laid out there, where Iowa goes nine and three. Last year, when things were cratering with the offense and looking as bad as it's ever looked before, Iowa goes to Illinois, they lose 9-6 in just a hideous football game. And Kirk, very flippantly, had lost some respect for Kirk that night. The question was asked to him, and he comes back with this.

I mean, we won 10 games last year. I don't know if you're aware of that. Just come on. The adult in the room, be the adult. And Kirk wasn't in that moment. We all have bad moments. That was a bad moment for Kirk Ferentz. And when you hear things like that, oh, we won this many games. We know the future of the Big Ten is changing. There is no pillow landing there at the bottom of the heap with the Big Ten West. You're not going to get yearly games against Illinois and Purdue and Northwestern and Minnesota. That's going by the wayside. Programs in Wisconsin and Nebraska that very well could be ascending, coupled with the addition of the four schools and the difficult nature. Getting to a Big Ten championship game, look, Iowa's missed opportunities.

They certainly should have played in more than two championship games during the tenure that we've gone through. Iowa's had too much talent to only play in two championship games with the division that they played in. But that's where we are. And unless Iowa pulls off the upset on Saturday, it's going to remain just two championship game appearances since we went to the division format in the Big Ten. It's not good enough for Iowa, at least in the old structure. The new structure, there's no division, meaning you have to finish in the top two with everybody. Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota. Oh, and by the way, you throw in USC and Oregon and Washington and UCLA.

You have to finish in the top two of that league just to get to a championship game. Full circle. Winning nine games this year. Losing to Wisconsin. Losing one more game. On paper, nine and three looks good. And you look at those numbers and they'll go back and they'll say over the last five years, over the last three years, over the last decade, I was one of the winningest programs in the country and that's true. But that doesn't tell the whole picture. And with the evolution of college football and how it's changing, I don't think it's the right thing. What Iowa needs is a pure shakeup.

They need this thing to crater. They need this offense to fall apart even more, and the wins not to follow with it. No more winning 20-14 against below-average Purdue teams in year one of a new coaching regime. No more of that. No more going out there and beating Minnesota for what, the eighth straight year and beating Phil Fleck. I hate Phil Fleck.

I mean, that guy bothers the crap out of me. It's fake. It's phony. He's not my kind of person. And I love beating him. I love having that smile on my face. I grew up 10 minutes away from the Minnesota border, on the right side of the border, on the Iowa side. I hate Minnesota. I'm not a Gopher fan at all. I love it. But the best thing for this program is for it to really fall apart and for the wins to not be there. And

I hate to say that because I want, obviously, Iowa to win every single Saturday. But that's where we've got to this point. We'll get into your questions, your comments coming up here. It's a Hawkeye mailbag edition of Lockdown Hawkeyes. A lot of great comments on the comment section. Also a couple over on Twitter. We will get into those as we roll through here. Lots of Iowa football and the future of the Iowa football program. We'll do that as we continue. This is the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. This is the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Today's episode of Locked On Hawkeyes is brought to you by FanDuel.

Snap into action this NFL season with FanDuel. It's America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place a $5 bet. That's $200 in bonus bets, win or lose. Love the sound of that. If you've been thinking about joining FanDuel, there's no better time to get on the action. We have everything going on in college football, in the NFL, the Major League Baseball playoffs continue to dominate. Heck,

we have the WNBA Finals going on. There's a little golf happening this weekend. You name it, it is all there at FanDuel. And the app, super easy to use. A wide range of betting options, the spreads, player props. You can do over, unders, and so much more. Visit FanDuel.com slash LockedOn and kick off the NFL season. FanDuel, official partner of the NFL. Trent Cotter back with you once again on the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen every day.

As we continue here, the conversation, we get into some of your comments. And there's times over on the YouTube page where there's some comments that leave me scratching my head from time to time, but there's plenty of them that make me think and take a different perspective on things. And that's what I really like to look at is it's not just me. Look, we all have ideas. We all have theories, right? And we will get into a few of those.

So we're just going to roll through here and kind of take a look back over the last couple of episodes and some of the comments that are out there. Of course, I always encourage you to go to the comments section on YouTube. Give me your thoughts there or on Twitter. You can find me at Trent Condon, C-O-N-D-O-N, C-O-N-D-O-N. Yes, that's how you do it. And you can also find me over there or at Lockdown Iowa is where you can find the show account.

All right, going back a few days back. This comes from Justice. I have to say it. I'm not impressed with xavier wampa thus far plays where he's running people down looks like he's jogging and it fails to make solid tackles also he's got straight up ran over when purdue got that rushing touchdown yeah i i would agree justice and it's something that we have uh talked about a little bit here this has been a disappointing year for xavier w Look, this is as good of a recruit in terms of the rankings that I was got in a very long time. After what we saw

a year ago in the bowl game, obviously played a little bit throughout the course of the season last year, learning the Phil Parker defense and what it takes on the back end. I expected more from Xavier Wampa at this point. Now, to be fair, he has been banged up. That is something that has been mentioned a couple of different times. He's certainly not playing at 100%. Calling a number of Xavier's games in high school, his closing ability is unlike anything I've ever seen before at the high school level, and it's not even close. But maybe it's because of that injury. I'm with you there. That is something definitely where I agree with Justice. But a disappointment there. We'll see if he can get it back. Here's another one. This one comes from Monte. Where was Estrenga?

He's banged up. Potential that he's going to be back for maybe this week, though. When can we see Jazz Patterson again? That one also, Monte, looks like he's going to be back for the Minnesota game before he's going to be back. So both those guys just a little bit banged up out there, but hopefully going to get them back into the fold here in the coming weeks. Another one for Monte. When you get the ball inside at first and goal, you need to use Hill's size and run the QB sneak until you get in. You know, that's something going back to that first and goal situation

from the five after the Cooper-Dijon pick. I'm right there with you. With Iowa, so many struggles that they have, their best thing, five yard line and in, just sneak it. Just go that. And of course, we saw the snap that went over Deacon Hill's head. It was set up. It was wide open, but the guy's got to execute too. And for whatever reason, we see execution problems up and down. A lot of people like to blame the coaches for that. Other people are not willing to go down that line. Let's see what else we got here on the comment section as we go through with our mailbag edition. This is from Nick.

Kirk Ferentz in his press conference said he's no expert on the quarterback position despite being one of the wittiest coaches for 25 years at the D1A level. Yeah, that one, Nick, definitely perked up my ears when I was listening to Kirk back on Tuesday when he said that. He said it, and he's true. And it's something that I brought up before with Kirk. There's just something about quarterbacks that he struggles with. He struggles in a level that I haven't seen before. I don't know what it is in his past, but he's obviously willing to make changes on his offensive line. We see September as basically trials to see what they're going to do up front

and finding that right combination. He's fine with that. Iowa plays three, four running backs. They play a bunch of tight ends, even tight ends that are down further on the depth chart and getting them experience. But quarterback is, it's a non-starter and I don't know exactly what it is. He loves leadership and maybe he just thinks that that's going to upset the apple cart too much if he's making a change. We saw the struggles from Spencer Petras last year.

He wasn't willing to make any kind of change. Now you can make the argument that Alex Padilla was just terrible. I look back at that Minnesota game he won a couple years previous and say, how bad could it possibly be? When we saw him out there, it wasn't very good in its own right. But yeah, there's something weird about quarterbacks, Kirk saying, no expert at the quarterback position. Yeah, we know, Kirk. We've definitely seen that. More comments here as we roll through here on Locked On Hawkeyes. This one, let's see. This is from Bellator. Too early to make a full assessment on Hill.

Well, all right. It is too early to make a full assessment on Hill, but I don't know how much more we need to see to see this dude doesn't have it. The likelihood that a quarterback goes six of 21, a guy that has been getting a number of reps before this, was the de facto starter after the injury to Cade McNamara for two weeks before the season began and was getting all the number one reps at the time. Joe Labus was also out of practice. The dude was getting a ton of reps and he was the guy that very quickly fell down

the depth chart at Wisconsin. He was on his way to Fordham. Who knows if he'd be playing a Fordham right now? I'm being completely honest. I don't know. He's not good. He does not have the requisite accuracy to be a competent Division I quarterback. He just doesn't. Nice kid. Big, strong arm. He can have fun. He's a big boy out there, but come on.

Maybe not a full assessment. Still more to be seen. I don't think we're going to see anything, though, that is going to change our perception that he's just not good enough to be a high-level Division I quarterback. This from Hair Trigger. Good news is Wisconsin doesn't look great either. If we can harass Mordecai like we did Hudson Card, there's a chance the Wisconsin defense isn't what it's been in years past either. There's a decent chance at least. I wouldn't put it at decent. I'm down. I'm frustrated. And maybe that's not a good place to be. Kirk Ferentz's teams have surprised us in the past,

and I'm hoping that is going to be the case ultimately this weekend. Wisconsin is not vintage Wisconsin, but they still run the football incredibly well. They just do it out of shotgun, right? I mean, they're going to run it. You're going to see a whole lot of Braylon Allen. You're going to see the backup running back, and he'll ultimately be good because that's what Wisconsin does. It's going to be a big offensive line. And Brian

Ferentz has not been able to beat, figure out the 3-4. I mean, the last two years, Iowa hasn't got to 170 yards of total offense in either game. They had, of course, the clunker in Madison back in 2017 after setting the world on fire against Ohio State the week previous. They go up there and they have 66 yards of total offense. Got to show me. Brian's got to show me he can do a little bit more than what we've seen at this point. This one comes from Jake.

Is it bad to wish they completely tank a couple more games just so we don't have to watch them play in Indy? Jake, it's kind of what I talked about before. For the betterment of the program, we need to rid themselves of the cancer. And we need Beth Goetz or whoever the athletic director is in the building to say no more. No more Brian Ferencz. No more having your son run things. Because Kirk can't look at this through true football glasses.

He, it's his boy. It's just, it's, that's what it is. He cannot look at this and realistically see how bad this thing has gotten and because they're winning games and because of that we're kind of going in the same direction uh jake continues i'm as diehard as any but it's just straight disrespectful how putrid our offense has become completely agree not hating on the players but i'll stand by the statement i made a few years ago to a friend that Petras would have been a decent quarterback playing anywhere but Iowa. Why do quarterbacks regress when they come to Iowa? I know why. Yeah, Jake,

I'm right there with you. And you know, the regression argument's been out there. A lot of people point to Ricky Stansy, CJ Beathard. You certainly look statistically, Ricky Stansy was a lot better quarterback his senior year. They just didn't win the closeard. You certainly look statistically. Ricky Stancy was a lot better quarterback his senior year. They just didn't win the close games. And you look statistically, though, he was a lot better. The defense wasn't quite as good. And they lost a lot of ones in the fourth quarter. Like, easily that year, you would have taken the better statistical year,

and they win those close ones. They had another successful season coming off the Orange Bowl. It would have been completely different. Let's see. What else do we get? This is from Silas. Go for two. This is going back to when Iowa took the lead. It was 19-7 at the time in the fourth quarter against Purdue.

For whatever reason, Kirk Ferentz didn't go for two. Jace brought this up earlier in the week. Maybe I was just surprised. I was just surprised to get in the end zone and just wasn't prepared for it. And they were just shocked to do it because they looked unprepared. Hell, they're lucky to get into the end zone, period. That's why. I like that, Silas.

Good stuff there. Randy, I wish everyone would just stop slamming all the players and give them some support. I'll support the players as much as possible. But this is big boy football. This is Big Ten football. All right? We're not playing Pop Warner. This isn't rec league.

This is the real thing. Slam the players. They're on scholarship. Slam the players, they're on scholarship. Slam the players, they're getting NIL money. Every single one of them is getting something now from the NIL. This is what it is. You think it's bad here? Go to Clemson.

Go to Alabama. Go and see what they were saying about their players, and Caden Proctor and the like, after they lost to Texas earlier this year. Guys got it pretty good here. 30-70, yeah, that was my prediction when we did our crossover with Ryan Over on the lockdown Badgers side of things. The offense might be terrible, it is, but Wisconsin won't score that much. I just, I'm worried that this Hawkeye defense is going to wear down again.

Wisconsin, they have 36, 38 minutes time of possession. This thing could really get out of hand. I think in the fourth quarter of that one, a couple of years ago when they were up there, it was 27 to seven. It didn't even feel that close. Maybe we're trending towards something very similar in this one. This is from Minnesota PTSD 3034 a lot of people are complaining about Brian right here yes but kind of leaving Kirk out of it to me

this is all on Kirk I wouldn't give Brian even 1% blame on how bad the offense is it's more than 1% definitely more than 1% I've said this before it's Hawke 1%. Definitely more than 1%. I've said this before. It's Hawkeye Chronicles on Twitter. It puts up a bunch of old, just highlight packages of old games.

I just watched some of those. Not real long ago, in the Kirk Ferentz tenure. I watched the offense when Ken O'Keefe was here. Heck, watched the offense when Greg Davis was here, offense when Ken O'Keefe was here. Heck, watch the offense when Greg Davis was here, who I did not like his offensive philosophy from what Iowa was trying to do in the run game. But that aside, I mean, it looks like a completely different sport than what Brian's trotting out there. And for a guy that's considered an offensive line guru, how has he not been able to figure this out? Kirk, same thing. Now, it's the change in zone blocking scheme and the ability to cut back,

and we've talked about that a ton, but I just can't go there. 1% on Brian. Now, he does have a good point here. Kirk's the puppet master. He is. He's calling the shots. He's employing it. Brian is Brian.

Absolutely. Kirk can make a change. He's absolutely kirk can make a change he's just not willing to make a change and that's why we are in the spot that we are with this offense couple others on the email bag edition personnel was never going to change this offense i'm so sick and tired of these teenage kids getting more blame than they deserve don't misconstrue my words i do not like Petras behind center, but why was Petras ever the QB to begin with? This is from Justice again.

You know, it's a good point. Why is Iowa unable to find a quarterback? Why has it been this long where Iowa just has not been able to figure that out? I would argue scheme. And that's where we are. That is where we are. Never have I been so frustrated at a team that wins.

Right there with you. I completely agree with you. A few more here out of mailbag edition of Lockdown Hawkeyes. Once again, like I said before, Purdue, the running game is the X factor. If Iowa gets some long runs and does not lose the turnover battle, they have a shot against Wisconsin. That's from Brian Phillips. I'm with you.

Got to get the run game going, but Iowa has not been able to do that against Wisconsin, even in the wins, winning two of the last three. It's been a couple of big plays. The 2020 game in the weird COVID year with nobody in the stands. That was a couple of plays to Amir Smith-Marset. I'm not sure being there. Smiles per gallon. Interesting that Ryan, that was from yesterday's podcast with Ryan from Lockdown Badgers, talking about Deacon Hill being out of shape. I find it genuinely unbelievable that with professional level strength and conditioning and nutrition, Iowa coaches are perfectly okay with Hill's physique. My high school soccer coach told me I need to lose

a few LBs, and he was right. No weight Deacon in is an ideal physique. With all the resources Iowa has. No excuse. But at least he's in a Brian Ferentz quarterback room. Sad and depressing place. You're exactly right. Smiles per gallon. Sad and depressing. You know what? We'll turn that depression around, though. It will be a win. Let's find a way to do it. What is the blueprint? will be a win. Let's find a way to do it. What is the blueprint?

What is it going to take to pull off the upset? We will do that as we continue on the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Today's episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast is brought to you by LinkedIn. These days, every new potential hire can feel like a high-stakes wager for your small business. You want to be 100% certain that you have access to the best qualified candidates available. That's why you have to check out LinkedIn Jobs. LinkedIn Jobs helps you find the right people for your team faster and for free. I was looking recently for somebody to help me out with a few things on my small business,

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Trent Conner back with you one final time. This is the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Coming up this weekend, 3 o'clock kickoff with the Badgers and the Hawkeyes up at Camp Randall. Go up to that dump. Look, it's a great environment. It is. The jump around thing, it's, ah, I'll tell you.

It can be a little bit overrated after you've seen it a couple of times, but when things are rocking, when the Badgers are playing well, it is a special environment, fun place. Madison's a great college town. A lot of fun there. I've said in the past, I got family up there in Madison. Been to a number of games, seen some good ones, seen some bad ones,

more bad recently, but it's a really, really fun environment. So how's Iowa gonna do this? What's the blueprint? What's it going to take? And we had a couple of comments there during the mailbag talking about turnover differential. I don't think there's any doubt about it.

I mentioned this yesterday. It's not Iowa having to hit on a couple of plays. I was going to have to hit in five, six big plays, I think, to win this football game. Probably a couple in the running game and four or five in the passing game. Wisconsin is not going to respect this Iowa passing game. They're just not. Until Iowa actually completes a few throws down the field, they're going to continue to crowd the box and they're going to make it incredibly difficult for Iowa to do anything. And even if Iowa drops back to pass,

they're going to bring pressure and they're going to make it incredibly difficult on Deacon Hill to get the ball away. So you got to hit on those shots. When they're available, you need Seth Anderson to hit a play. You need to be able to stretch the field. That is Iowa's only shot of moving the football against this team

and something that has just been an issue against the Wisconsin 3-4. I know it's a new staff there. It's a new look, and this defense isn't at the level we've seen some past years. It's still good enough against this Iowa offense. Another thing. This is a big key that we brought up before the Penn State game, and it applies here as well. One area where Iowa has to dominate is in special teams.

Not just be better in special teams, but dominate. And that means a big return, either kickoff or punt return. That means that Drew Stevens, when we get a field goal opportunity or two or three or four, you got to knock them all home. You cannot afford a miss in a football game like this. It's just too important to get points on the board for this Iowa football team. And get out early. Get out there, even if it ends in a field goal.

Get out there. Get on the board early. Just don't have the goose egg up there because, boy, it feels like just a boa constrictor, right, when I was doing that. So dominate special teams. Hit a bunch of big plays. We maybe feel like we're asking a lot here, and maybe that's just where I am. We'll be back with you tomorrow on Lockdown Hawkeyes

with former Hawkeye running back LaShawn Daniels. The Iowa running game got going last week. What was it? And how do you beat the Wisconsin team? How do you beat them in the run game? We'll talk about that with the former Hawkeye running back. Plus, we will make our picks as we do each and every week. LaShawn dominating the competition this year in our pick segment brought to you by FanDuel.

We will do that on the tomorrow show, previewing the matchup with Wisconsin. That will do it for today. As always, thanks for making Locked On, Hawkeyes, your first listen every day. We'll talk to you again tomorrow go hawks