Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa Football Rewatch: Can the Hawkeyes win with Deacon Hill & PFF Grades

Starting point is 00:00:00 another look at Iowa's win over Michigan State. Some good, some bad. And can Iowa win with Deacon Hill at quarterback? Plus, the grades from Pro Football Focus. All today, Locked on Hawkeyes. You are Locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network,

Starting point is 00:00:20 your team every day. Hey, welcome in. I'm Trent Condon, and this is the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen every day. We're available wherever you get podcasts. You can also watch us on YouTube. While you're there, hit that subscribe button. Helps us get in front of more Hawkeye fans. Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook, official sportsbook of Locked On. Make every moment more. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed. Visit Fanduel.com slash locked on to get started. Iowa gets the win.

Starting point is 00:01:12 We have the Nista Reaction podcast on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Back at you here on a Monday as we get the week started with what we do every week, and that is a rewatch of the performance. Going through and seeing after that initial screening, getting rid of a little bit of the overreaction, some of the things that you see initially. And that second watch always, I think, really clears up your eye. It gives you an opportunity to see the game in a different way.

Starting point is 00:01:39 You don't have the same kind of emotion because you know ultimately how it's going to play out, and some of those emotional aspects are taken away for the game so love to do this with you each and every week get a little deeper look into things and as we go back we'll repeat some of the things that we talked about in the instant reaction podcast i think there's some pertinent things though that do crop up we're also today going to get into pro football focus and their numbers that we saw from the wind does it marry with what we're seeing? Just another grading scale. And I like to bring that to the show each and every week.

Starting point is 00:02:09 See if our eyes are matching up exactly what these scouts are doing, if you will, with pro football focus as they go through and they grade every player on every play each and every game. And then the big question, can Iowa win with Deacon Hill at the quarterback position? Of course, they won on Saturday. I'm talking about more big picture, can Iowa win with Deacon Hill at the quarterback position? Of course, they won on Saturday. I'm talking about more big picture, big wins going forward. Not a home win against Michigan State. That's all well and good.

Starting point is 00:02:31 But we obviously know about some of the issues in that Michigan State program with Mil Tucker's firing and what's happening there. So we'll get into that and take a look at the quarterback. In fact, let's start at the quarterback position, though, and talk a little bit about Deacon Hill. Deacon Hill, a guy that has the arm. There's never been a concern about arm strength with him, and you saw it. Now, one of the throws that he made,

Starting point is 00:02:56 the ball that was dropped by Caleb Brown, a couple of those divines, a little bit hot coming in, a little bit high. Those are ones you you maybe like to see the velocity down a couple of ticks on a couple of those throws the one to caleb brown going back and watching that thing again it was eye-opening the arm strength he's making that throw from the left side towards the left hash mark all the way across the field he goes through a couple of his reads a couple progressions before he gets to Caleb Brown,

Starting point is 00:03:26 and just threw an absolute missile, just a rope. That thing is a difficult quarterback. In fact, Cade McNamara can't make that play with that velocity. He just can't, even before the injury, obviously. He can't do it right now. We'll get into Cade a little bit more here in just a moment. But those are throws that do get right now. We'll get into Kate a little bit more here in just a moment. But those are throws that do get you excited. Will he, with more playing time, become more comfortable? Will he

Starting point is 00:03:53 become a guy that, with that playing time, makes those makeable plays, becomes more consistent? He's not an overly accurate thrower. That's something I think that's going to be a huge concern with him going forward, trying to fit the ball in tight windows. You know, at times I'm okay with that. And though I was going to have to continue to be built differently, really my biggest takeaway, going back and re-watching it, something we talked about in the Insta-Action podcast was

Starting point is 00:04:17 the full complement of the playbook felt like it was back. From the quarterback sneak to the bootlegs to the waggles, Iowa was back running their offensive scheme. The whole system was there again. The run game didn't do a ton. And the run game still is not going to be great. And it's frustrating. I bought in.

Starting point is 00:04:38 I thought this offensive line was going to take a big step forward. It's taken a step forward. It's better than it was a year ago. It's almost impossible to be worse. But it's not great by any means. It's taken a step forward. It's better than it was a year ago. It's almost impossible to be worse, but it's not great by any means. It certainly is not great. The running game though, with the not just inside outside zone plays, but more counter plays, more trap plays, ISO, hat on hat, doing the things that really we wanted to see the evolution of the running game. They're there. And you couple that now with the ability to do a lot more play action.

Starting point is 00:05:07 You know, another theory that I had and threw this one out just a few weeks back when McNamara was dealing with the quad injury early on is even the play action game, just him working under center, how difficult that was for him. You have to anticipate as he was dealing with that quad injury, though, it was getting better. You know how much that takes away from the playbook. I would love to know the answer, and likely we never will know the full answer of how limited the play calling and what the playbook looked like with the McNamara injury, and just how debilitating that was. Look, with the full complement of the playbook, it's still not great offense. Schematically, it's still broken.

Starting point is 00:05:45 You saw multiple plays. In fact, that's part of the notes from rewatching the game. There are a few plays where Deacon Hill was not helped out because of the route concepts that Iowa runs and the Brian Ferentz offense and the passing great tree that they do. It just doesn't make a lick of sense. I mean, you got guys going in the same direction. You have slow developing plays behind a at best below average offensive line. It just it doesn't make a lick of sense. I mean, you got guys going in the same direction. You have slow developing plays behind a, at best, below average offensive line. It just, it doesn't make sense. And it's what I continue to maintain. What is Brian Ferris trying to do in the passing game?

Starting point is 00:06:13 I don't know. I don't know the answer. Sure, to get the ball to tight ends. I still don't know what he's trying to do. That aside, back to Deacon Hill. At one point, he was 7-12. Comes into the game, he's firing, and then it really went awry, including in the third quarter when the Boo Birds were out in full force, as they should have been. Some awful play calls, not helping out a young quarterback, making his first real significant playing time in a big-time college environment. They didn't help him out. The play calling was bad. The ski was bad, and it just didn't work out. He finishes 11 of 27, meaning after that 7-for-12 start, he only completes four of his final 15 passes in the football game.

Starting point is 00:06:59 Had the touchdown. Good throw. Got it out there quick to Eric Hall, and Eric Hall did all the work to get in there. The interception was a bad one, and there were a couple other plays that could have been picks, too, and that's going to happen with the quarterback. Still going forward. We'll get into this a little bit more, but can Iowa win with Deacon Hill at the quarterback position? Can they win this bad division, the Big Ten West, with Deacon Hill at the quarterback position? Because Cade McNamara's season is over and this injury is significant he's going to be out for the season from everything that I've heard we don't have anything official at this point nothing has come

Starting point is 00:07:36 from the university I anticipate the next day or two that will come but what we do know Deacon Hill's the quarterback he's going to be the guy Joe Labus missed a ton of time going back to the summertime where he was not able to practice. I heard, again, one that is not definitive. It was a sports hernia, whatever it is. He was not out there for a long time and finally got back up into camp in late August. But he was so far behind.

Starting point is 00:08:01 That was Deacon Hill. We'll talk more about the quarterback position. A couple other things have popped up. Mentioned the defense. And'll talk more about the quarterback position. A couple other things have popped up. Mention the defense. And we talked about this on the Instant Reaction podcast. Boy, they're still showing some cracks. And at times it's not fair. The pedestal that we put this Iowa defense on and Phil Parker and what they do just year after year and expecting greatness from them year after year. This is still a very good defense. And the way multiple times they were able to bend but not break and hold them to field goal and field goal attempts,

Starting point is 00:08:30 including a missed field goal that kept Iowa around, would have been down six, would need a touchdown to take the lead. Instead, the field goal on the fourth one decision by Kirk Ferris to kick the field goal and make it 16-16. But they bent and didn't break. So you do have to give them credit on that, but boy, a lot of big plays out there. A lot of those runs that normally, even if they do get a little something, you know, it's those six, eight yard plays and they're going for 12, 15. Just not

Starting point is 00:08:57 used to seeing that with this Iowa defense. It's still good and statistically still good. Let's get into the stat pack. So here we are five games in. I was four and one. Won all the games that they were supposed to. Lost the game that they weren't supposed to win. That was ugly against Penn State. Total offense. I was ranked 130th in the country.

Starting point is 00:09:20 This is out of 130 ranked teams. There are three teams right now that are transitioning to FBS football. It's James Madison. It is Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State. So those teams are not part of the rankings, though you can still see their numbers. Iowa would be ahead of Sam Houston State, so they wouldn't be the worst team. But of the 130 ranked teams in FBS football, this is the worst offense in the country.

Starting point is 00:09:50 They're 20 yards behind Eastern Michigan. That's 129th. 130th. Dead effing last in total offense. Rush offense, 113th. Pass D offense, 128th. Pass efficiency, 129th. Scoring offense,3th pass D offense 128 pass efficiency 129 scoring offense 98 total defense 33rd and that's what I get into still good still a really good defense it's just not the elite level that

Starting point is 00:10:18 we're used to rush defense tied for 66 in the country giving up 138 yards per game on the ground not used to seeing those kind of numbers with iowa football passing yards are allowed 22nd some good numbers 13th in pass efficiency defense that's a good one there scoring defense 21st in the country turnover margin i was down at 92nd in the country 127th and third down percentage here's a good the third down percentage. Here's a good one. Fourth down percentage offensively, 28th. All right, let's go. There's a good one there. Defense 32nd getting off the field on third down this season. Red zone offense has been pretty good, as has the red zone defense.

Starting point is 00:10:58 You'd expect that from Iowa, and that's where we are. A little look at the stats. Not exactly pretty. Speaking of numbers, we will get into the numbers. How did Iowa grade out against Michigan State? We'll take a look at the numbers from Pro Football Focus and then go big picture with Iowa football. Well, they won a game with Deacon Hill. How big can they win with the new quarterback,

Starting point is 00:11:18 the guy that takes over for the injured Cade McNamara? We will do that when we come back. This is the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Today's episode of Locked On Hawkeyes is brought to you by Athletic Brewing. Big thank you to Athletic Brewing Company. What they've done, they have changed

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Starting point is 00:13:22 Trent Cotter back with you again here on the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast as always thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen every day we continue here and time to go inside the numbers the numbers that we look at from pro football focus this is for people new to the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast feed this is what we do take a look back re rewatch the game, and then see if the numbers marry with what we saw out on the field on Saturday. So as we look at those numbers,

Starting point is 00:13:51 let's start first with the offense. You look at the quarterback position. Deacon Hill did not grade out very high. He was a 50.7 overall. You look at the overall numbers. That makes sense. 11 to 27 with the touchdown and the interception no surprise on that one as we talked about though I thought we saw at least a few good things that

Starting point is 00:14:11 you can be excited about there also went in with not a ton of reps the reps now is McNamara was getting healthier before the injury on Saturday night not getting the same reps that he was early in the season running back position yeah the fumble from LaShawn Williams that looked like that was going to turn the tide of the game. I was up 10-9 at the time, beginning of the third quarter. They get the football back, and right away, on the turf, picked up, scoop and score, and you're down 16-10. He did come back into the game.

Starting point is 00:14:42 But Kamari Moulton, I thought had a couple of good carries in there. That was one part of the rewatch that I was more impressed than watching it live, is the running out of Moulton and what they were able to do with him. He's not a big guy. But another thing, you look at the way that he pass blocked in this football game when he was asked to do that. He was pretty solid overall. That's where you get their wide receiver position.

Starting point is 00:15:05 Not good. As they got them involved early on. You saw the first pass of the game go to Deontay Vines. You saw right after that, go right back to Ragini. You get two guys, two wide receiver catches after having 14 in the first four games of the season. That was pretty good and got them going a little bit, but the drops were a huge part. There were two officially from the numbers from the University of Iowa. Pro Football Focus had Deontay Vines with three drops in the football game. Seth Anderson grades out as the top wide receiver, and Seth Anderson didn't have much in way of the stat sheet. Caleb Brown with a 56. What, your second rated guy had a drop in his only touch. That's a bit of a problem, and Vines all the way down to 48.3 with those three drops in the football game.

Starting point is 00:15:47 Eric Hall, he's your top-rated offensive player. Out of the skill positions, he goes out at a 74.4. Also had a pretty big drop early in the football game. Came back including that big touchdown. Stylianos, a 61.5. I thought that'd be a tick higher from Stylianos. I was a little bit surprised by that one. Perhaps maybe the blocking was a part of that.

Starting point is 00:16:07 And then Estrenga was third with a 54 grade. Not great by any means there. Speaking of not great, the offensive line, not great either. Connor Colby came into the game late after Nick DeYoung exited. Connor Colby did not practice a whole lot during the course of the week. He grades out, though, in his limited reps as the top offensive lineman at a 59, below average. That's your best one on the offensive line. Jennings Dunker was second on the list.

Starting point is 00:16:31 DeYoung after that, we will see. After the game, Kirk Ferentz said, maybe not as significant as they initially thought for DeYoung, but didn't sound good by any means. Mason Richman down at a 53. Logan Jones, brutal, 46.7. Rusty Feth, worse than that, at a 45.9. Some ugly numbers down there, including run blocking.

Starting point is 00:16:51 DeYoung, Jones, and Feth all in the 40s with run blocking grades from pro football focus. That is bad from the Iowa offensive line. We jump over to the defensive side of the football here. It gets a little bit better, and for the most part, I think it graded out exactly, not exactly, but how I anticipated starting up front. Deontay Craig, he continues to improve. Had the second game won, but early in the season, those first three games, I thought we were going to see Deontay Craig be a star this year. I thought he was going to be, you know, second team, all big 10 type of guy after having six and a half sacks a year ago. I thought we were going to see him build on that.

Starting point is 00:17:28 Hasn't been the case as it pertains to getting the quarterback. Playing more rotationally, though, asking to do much more in terms of run fits, being in the right spot, not just being out there as a pass rusher, but doing more to the game. He grayed out incredibly well. Y.A. Black was the second one with a with a 62 in fact i thought it should have been higher than that had the beautiful play on the screen pass he was very disruptive i mean he was really impactful in the middle of the line in a day where the veteran logan lee i thought struggled we saw good stuff out of the young guy and why a black a guy with a ton of upside he's got the frame six, 6'4", 315 pounds. He is a behemoth out there, and he played at a high level. Ethan Hurkett is your third-rated guy.

Starting point is 00:18:09 Below average then after that, Lee Pittman, Aaron Graves, who has been a disappointment, I think, from what we thought he was going to do in his sophomore campaign, Max Llewellyn, and Joe Evans, in fact, the lowest-rated defensive lineman, and you saw he was just getting bundled up out there, time in and time out by the Michigan State offensive line. Jay Higgins is your top linebacker.

Starting point is 00:18:29 No surprise there. He is seemingly every single week. They don't love the Iowa linebackers, though, in comparison to what you see. Now, two weeks ago against Penn State, they racked up a ton of tackles because there are a ton of tackles to be had when you're out there for 90 plays in the football game.

Starting point is 00:18:44 Kyler Fisher, a 63. Nick Jackson. Nick Jackson, I was hard on Nick Jackson early on. Remember, he's learning a new position, playing the other inside linebacker spot, but not the middle spot that he was accustomed to at Virginia. Still not great in pass coverage, but even the run grade, not great from either of those guys, both Higgins and Nick Jackson in this football game against Michigan State. He grades out with a 58.5. Great to see the defensive backfield

Starting point is 00:19:11 though. That's where they graded incredibly high out of this defense. Xavier Wampa, the top ranked player defensively with an 83.3. Cooper Dejean right behind him. Head course at that interception. Down in the end zone, he's a 79. 78 for Sebastian Castro. Had a pick himself. Jamari Harris had a pick to end the football game. He's at a 70. And Quinn Schulte with a 77. Very good out of the defensive backfield. Great to see there. And it was interesting. When they went away from cash and Kyler Fisher was out there a couple of times, we saw Xavier Wampa was the one that exited. They moved Sebastian Castro back to strong safety, and Wampa exited. Maybe Wampa used that as motivation.

Starting point is 00:19:48 I'm not sure, but I thought he played one of his best games, certainly in a Hawkeye uniform. He was all over the place, showing the physicality. He is a guy that just closes on the football so incredibly well. We know the upside that Wampa has, and great to see that show up in a big-time way. No grades for special teams but you got the punt return from cooper to gene yeah true stevens that 53 yarder boy roger were you watching

Starting point is 00:20:11 that one again i mean not only was it a no doubt or right down the gut but that thing hit a third of the way up the the net he's got a leg man for a guy that when he came in a year ago as a true freshman a lot of people said real accurate, not the strongest leg. He's going to be kind of like Keith Duncan, right? Not a guy that until later in his career that they probably even felt comfortable with outside of 46, 47 yards. Not the case here in year number two of Drew Stevens. And of course, Torrey Taylor doing his thing out there, the special teams, they needed

Starting point is 00:20:41 it and came up in a big way. We go big picture when we continue on the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. Iowa got a win. Now, going forward, there will be no Cade McNamara. He is not going to be with the team for the rest of the season because of that injury, it sounds like, and because of that, it's going to be Deacon Hill. How much of a leash does Deacon Hill have? What does Iowa need to do to set this offense up and put him in a position to succeed? We'll do that as we continue on the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Starting point is 00:22:12 Trent Conner back with you one final time on the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen every day. So as we take a look at this and take a look at this Hawkeye team and what they are, what they can be the rest of the season, the schedule is not overly daunting, but here's a little bit of a surprise. Speaking of FanDuel, the opening line comes out. I had, this is what I do every single week. So have been a long time better people knew the program you everydayers you know that talk about my betting exploits quite a bit love to make my way to Vegas one of my favorite places to be and I fire every day I find something to bet on

Starting point is 00:22:59 what I do for both college and NFL football is before we get the lines, I have my power rating system. I make my tweaks after the week of football that I just watched, and then I see just how closely my lines are to when the lines officially come out. I had Iowa, and I deducted three and a half points in my power rankings minus Cade McNamara with Deacon Hill in there. Three and a half points. In the NFL, a guy like Patrick Mahomes, he's like a seven-point player, right? College, a little bit different the way you set it up. That aside, I thought Iowa would be a pretty good favorite. Pretty good favorite in this football game.

Starting point is 00:23:43 Not the case. Not the case at all in fact Iowa open up as a four point favorite is all at home against Purdue Purdue got a really nice win against Illinois over the weekend they looked really good you had Ryan Walter going up against the team that he was a coordinator but not only that now Iowa is just a three and a half point favorite as we sit here and talk on Monday over under is 41 and a half does that feel a tick high we can argue about that a little bit a little bit surprised here here's some more numbers for you for him FanDuel the updated odds to win the Big Ten West

Starting point is 00:24:16 Wisconsin now a prohibitive favorite Badgers minus 155 Iowa still the second choice of plus 240 Minnesota is the third choice after that win against the Raging Cajuns. They're 10-1. 16-1 for the Illini. Nebraska also 16-1. Purdue is 29-1. And then Northwestern pulling up the rear at 100-1 to win the Big Ten West. So that's what we have.

Starting point is 00:24:40 The current odds from FanDuel. Can I win this division? Well, the likelihood is it's going to come down to what happens in two weeks at Wisconsin, right? And at this point, it's incredibly difficult to see this Iowa football team being able to go into Madison and win that game. Iowa's struggles on the offensive side of the football, well documented. Coupled with some of the run issues that they have had defensively, though Wisconsin has changed their offensive philosophy, they're going with a lot more three or four wide receiver sets.

Starting point is 00:25:15 They're still running the football a ton. They're doing it out of shotgun now as opposed to under center, but they're running the football a ton, as they should, with the stable running backs that they have. That's how they are. Mordecai is fine. Just that. Maybe a tick better than fine, but that's all he is.

Starting point is 00:25:33 But they're still running the football, and it's difficult to see it. But can Iowa grind one out? Go back to 2015 when they went up there in the 12-0 regular season that year. Got a little help. Offense alignment stepping on the foot of the quarterback. Was it Stave? Was he the quarterback at the time? I think he was. Fumble that football. Iowa gets the win and pulls it off. Yeah, Iowa can do that. But if you're just looking at it as a one-game scenario, I don't like Iowa's chances. Coupled with a game like this week,

Starting point is 00:26:03 Deacon Hill be making his first career start. Iowa now trying to come up with a game like this week. Deacon Hill will be making his first career start. Iowa now trying to come up with a system that makes sense. I'm left thinking the path for Iowa to win this division is so much more difficult. And that's not to say Cade McNamara was playing well, because he wasn't. He was playing poorly. And there were times that

Starting point is 00:26:25 Deacon Hill looked better. And maybe Deacon Hill right now, a healthy Deacon Hill, maybe he is better for this Iowa football team. That is to be seen. And I think you can make that argument at this point just because of the struggles we saw out of Cade McNamara. That's not to say that Deacon Hill's a better quarterback than McNamara, because he's not. Deacon Hill's not a guy that's going to win a Big Ten championship and is going to take a team to the college football playoff. He just isn't. Kid McNamara did that. Did it with a lot of talent around him. I get that. He has the resume that Deacon Hill doesn't. But a healthy Deacon Hill, a guy that can get you the third or fourth and one on the quarterback sneak, a guy that you

Starting point is 00:27:03 could run your full complement of your offense. It's there. He's got to be smarter with the football. Yet, Iowa can't coach out the part that makes him so intriguing. The strong arm, the deep shots, the ability to stretch defenses out. Iowa hasn't used that the last few years. And Iowa needs to use that. If they're going to hit on some big plays, if they're going to do some things, if they're going to be better than

Starting point is 00:27:29 the worst offense in the country, they need Deacon Hill to be making those shots. If I had to bet on it, I would say no. That they're not going to win the division this year. And they're going to win eight games, maybe nine. And they're going to be pretty good. They're going to win the division this year. And they're going to win eight games, maybe nine. And they're going to be pretty good. They're going to win games ugly like they did on Saturday night. But it's probably going to end in disappointment for this Iowa football team. Deacon, prove me wrong. Brian Ferentz, prove me wrong. That's what we're looking for here today.

Starting point is 00:28:02 With that, we are out of here. We'll be with you each and every day this week, as we always are on Locked On Hawkeyes and across the Locked On Network. Your team every day, that's what we do. Doesn't matter what your team is. Maybe you're gearing up for your team in the MLB playoffs, as I am as a Twins fan.

Starting point is 00:28:20 We'll see how short-lived that is against the Blue Jays in the three-game series. Your baseball team, your football team with the NFL, NBA, NHL, right around the corner, Locked On Fantasy Football, Locked On Bets. We have you covered on the Locked On Network. Thanks for making Locked On Hawkeyes your first listen. Every day we'll be back with you throughout the week. LaShawn Daniels, former Hawkeye running back. He will join us as he always does

Starting point is 00:28:45 here on the program. We will have LaShawn coming in here and talking about this Iowa football team. My buddy Jace also stops in. We will have that for you and a whole lot more. Your team every day on the Lockdown Network. Thanks for being with us here today. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:29:01 Go Hawks!

Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa Football Rewatch: Can the Hawkeyes win with Deacon Hill & PFF Grades

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