Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa gets the toughest Big Ten test of the season so far plus we break down tomorrow's Senior Bowl game

Episode Date: January 29, 2021

The Iowa basketball team gets Illinois tonight. We give you a full preview plus how to bet on the game. After discussing the Big Ten battle taking place tonight, we give you a Senior Bowl preview for tomorrow.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!KeepsIf you’re ready to take action and prevent hair loss, go to Keeps.com/LOCKEDONCOLLEGE to receive your first month of treatment for free.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON,” and you’ll get 20% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back, Hawkeye Nation, to a Friday morning episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes Podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Sports Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade, and we have another great episode coming at you today. We're going to be breaking down the Iowa-Illinois game. We're going to talk a little bit about the Senior Bowl. We got women's basketball we need to quickly cover because they didn't have the best game as a team, but a couple players had some pretty strong performances. And we're also going to talk a little bit about the NCAA tournament regulations

and what that means for the Hawks. That's all coming up on today's show. We have a fantastic segment brought to you by BetOnline.ag as well at the end of the show, breaking down what you should bet on for Iowa and also the Senior Bowl, given the fact that there are two Iowa Hawkeyes playing on that squad. But let's get into the women's basketball team, followed by the NCAA tournament here on segment number one. First off, the women took on Northwestern yesterday and fell to Northwestern 87-80. But that is with a significant effort from Monica Chinano, who started out 15-15, a Big Ten record, ended 17-19 for 34 points and 11 rebounds.

McKenna Warnick added 14 rebounds, and of course, Kaitlyn Clark was 8-16 for 23 points and 8 assists. But what was more impressive was what this team did they dominated the interior 39 rebounds compared to Northwestern's 28 honestly the only thing that hurt them because the shooting percentage for Iowa was through the roof much better than Northwestern it was turnovers Iowa with a season-high 23 turnovers compared to Northwestern's 9 that's what did it in this game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena for the women to fall to a ranked Northwestern squad. As far as the NCAA tournament goes, we're going to turn our attention to that now.

There was some news that came out about how they're going to be proceeding, and I'm going to read a little bit to you and then give you my explanation, my thoughts on it. This is from Matt Norlander. Earlier today, the NCAA sent out its latest approved protocols and schedule to select high-ranking people across the membership about the 2021 NCAA tournament CBS Sports

has learned. All tournament qualifying teams within 350 miles of Indianapolis will be required to travel by charter bus, and in an effort to combat COVID-19 positives that could surface after arrival in Indianapolis, teams' traveling parties will be split up into three buses for teams flying private airports and private planes will be used.

As I previously reported, eating drinking while traveling via bus plane is not allowed. Goggles plus face shields will also be provided suggested as extra measures. Auto bid teams determined prior to Saturday, March 13th will be asked to arrive in Indy on March 13th. Teams earning auto bids early enough on Saturday afternoon, evening will immediately depart from their league championship, provided they can arrive in Indy later Saturday night.

All 31 auto bids will arrive in Indy Saturday or Sunday. Late Sunday and all day Monday departures will be reserved for the 37 at-large teams, meaning if the team is considered a lock, protocols do not leave for Indy until the bracket reveal officially confirms inclusion. The NCAA is asking teams with high probability of being selected as at-larges to stay in their conference tournament location between the end of their league's tourney and the bracket reveal. Their travel party size capacity is 34.

If you go to the NCAA tournament, you are Tier 1. As previously reported, you need 7 straight negatives to be able to depart for Indy. Bands will not be allowed. Teams will only be allowed to eat in designated rooms at their hotel for the entirety of their stay in Indy. Every person will have their own hotel room. Obviously, no hotel guests are allowed. The Indiana Convention Center will have 12 practice courts, and coaches will not be allowed to scout next round opponents.

All scouting will be done via video. And that's basically the end of it. So I know it's a little bit long, but I wanted to explain a couple of things here. First and foremost, Iowa is outside of that 350 mile radius. So they would likely be flying in that instance. However, there is reports that the Indianapolis or Indianapolis could be the home of the big 10 tournament this year. So in that case, Iowa would be spending potentially they go to the final four, three to four weeks in Indianapolis could be the home of the Big Ten tournament this year. So in that case, Iowa would be spending, potentially if they go to the Final Four, three to four weeks in Indianapolis in a hotel room. So a couple things. I understand what the NCAA is trying to do.

They're trying to create a bubble-like atmosphere to eliminate as many positive tests as possible, to eliminate as many possible forfeitures as possible, and to keep the NCAA tournament intact as much as possible. But if I were a student athlete, that would be hell. Because at least at the bubble in the NBA, they were allowed to walk around and play golf. They're basically required to sit in the hotel room the entire time unless they're

playing basketball. That's absolutely miserable. I like staying in hotels. I've traveled a lot for work. I've stayed in Marriott over 600 nights in the last 8 years. But I do not want to stay in a hotel every single day except for when I go work out. That sounds miserable. And not

be able to have friends and family there? That just sucks. I feel bad for these players to not have that opportunity. I understand why the NCAA is doing it. I think they're making sure that there's not going to be an issue, but if Iowa wants to make it to the Final Four or the National Championship game, that is a long time to be stuck in Indianapolis, not being able to go about your business. As far as why they're doing it, again, this makes sense. The other thing I think is really interesting is the fact that

unless you win your conference tournament, you are not allowed to travel until you have received your bid to the NCAA tournament. So again, another thing to keep in mind, if Iowa wins, they go there possibly a day earlier. I think what they're trying to do is spread out the arrivals so they can handle that, make sure everyone is socially distanced, which again, I understand. But this is going to make for a very interesting NCAA tournament,

and it's going to be very interesting to see what happens if there is an outbreak among teams. What if a team cannot go any further, right? What if they have an outbreak and they're not allowed to play the rest of the tournament? That is what we're up against. And that's what the NCAA is trying to combat here. But again, I feel like they're going to put this much time into the tournament itself. You need to care about these players' mental health. You can't sit in a hotel room for that long. That is what The Bachelor did to these, and I know I'm bringing up The Bachelor and Bachelorette,

but that's what they did to these contestants, and they go freaking stir-crazy in two weeks. Imagine three, four weeks when you're at a high intensity level playing in the biggest games of your life, and you're stuck in a hotel room every waking moment besides the times you're on a court. I think the NCAA has to do a decent, has to do a better job of also figuring out how to make sure these players stay sane, stay healthy, stay active, stay engaged, and also can leave there with their mental health intact. We look at what the NBA did and they were able to go all over the place within that bubble and they still did not want to go back to that. They don't want nothing

to do with the bubble again. So that is something that the NCAA is up against. I have no doubt in my mind the NCAA will probably not do a single thing about it because they are a money-making business, but that is just my thoughts. Coming up on segment number two, we're going to be breaking down the Iowa-Illinois game and then getting into our betonline.ag segment for segment number three. That's all coming up in a few short moments. As you know, though, I always got some ads for you, some things I think you should really be paying attention to. And the first one I want to tell you about is rockauto.com because they have saved me a lot of money. I've told this story before if you've listened to the show, but you're going to

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I'm going to be breaking down the Iowa-Illinois game, and it's going to be a fun one, a very fun game. This is a team that I feel like matches up very well with Iowa. Iowa likes to play a little bit of small ball. Illinois plays even smaller ball. When you look at their lineup across the board, their starters, they have a 6'1", 175-pound freshman, 6'3", 180-pound freshman, 6'3", 215-pound senior, 6'5", 200-pound Io DeSumo,

and Kofi Coburn at 7'2", 285 pounds. They don't start anyone outside of Kofi over 6'5". Iowa actually has a size advantage in this game, and especially now that C.J. Frederick is likely not playing. We haven't heard either way yet, but likely not playing. So the size advantage is there. But Illinois is a team that's going to give Iowa run for its money. They are a solid offensive team, especially where Iowa's strengths are is exactly where Illinois' strengths are. So three-point shooting. Illinois is eighth in the country at 39.7%.

And points scored in the percentage, two--point percentage is 19th in the nation. And to add to that, Kofi Coburn, at 7' tall, 285 pounds, is a monster down low, 27th in the nation at 70% shooting. That's how big of a deal he is. We talked about it yesterday about Fran McCaffrey's quote. He's been very impressed with Kofi. Where he's a very big athletic defender, he's really added that element of offense to his game and become a fantastic offensive weapon for the fighting Illini. Where they can kind of struggle at times is when they get away from Kofi and stop going to him as the guy who can score for them. They get a little bit cute, they want to shoot threes, and I think that actually bodes well for Iowa. Despite the fact that Illinois is a solid three-point shooting team at 39.7%. They have multiple guys shooting

pretty darn well. Iowa is shooting 20 of 52 for 38%. Adam Miller, 31 of 84 for 37%. Jacob Granison, 7 of 15 for 47%. Trent Frazier, 27 of 69 for 39%. And Demonte Williams 22 of 36 for 61% which leads the nation so again they are a good three-point shooting team but Kofi is really their bread and butter when you get it down low it's hard to defend Kofi and Luka Garza has dramatically improved his defensive intent defensive abilities but Kofi is just too much to handle down low so it's going to be an interesting battle to see how they handle each other down low in the paint, but also, how big of a three-point shooting matchup is this going to be? Because although Illinois is phenomenal at shooting the three, they don't shoot it that

often. They primarily attack via the paint. They have athletic guards who can get in the lane, and they have Kofi who can finish it off. They are 257th in three-point distribution, meaning they primarily rely on the two-point attack. So what do they do if Iowa comes out hot? And again, without CJ Frederick, if Iowa comes out hot, though, that puts Illinois in a precarious position where they have to shoot the three a bit more to keep up.

Now, maybe both these teams decide to just pound it down low to their big men. That being said, last year, the guy who gave Luka Garza the biggest troubles was Xavier Tillman. A little bit smaller, a little bit lighter than Kofi, but just as athletic. Kofi is a bigger version of Xavier Tillman, in my opinion. I watched a pick and roll play where Kofi literally followed the guard the entire way down and knocked him out of bounds, not by pushing him, but the guy just ran into Kofi and he fell out of bounds, but he's able to guard the guard the whole way down through the lane and not allow him to score. That's how athletic Kofi is.

That is going to be an interesting matchup watching him go versus Luka Garza. Again, this Illinois squad, though, is something Iowa hasn't seen. They haven't seen an offense this good since Gonzaga. In fact, the best team outside of Gonzaga offensively that Iowa has faced was Maryland. That's right, Maryland, who's ranked 32nd in offensive adjusted efficiency. So again, this is not a team that Iowa has faced. They face a very good offensive and defensive team. This is arguably, I would actually

say just this is the toughest test Iowa has had this year outside of Gonzaga, without a doubt. Illinois ranked 8th in the country according to Kempom, 9th in offensive adjusted efficiency. I just said 8th, but I meant 9th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 8th overall. 22nd in defensive adjusted efficiency, and they like to get up the floor a bit. They're quick, they're athletic. But one of the things they don't do well is force turnovers. They are not that good at forcing turnovers. 307th in the nation.

Iowa also is one of the best teams in the nation at not turning the ball over. So that is going to be an interesting matchup to see how that bodes for Iowa. Turnovers is usually not an issue for Iowa. I don't expect it to be here either. And defensively, Illinois struggles to defend the three-point shot compared to the rest of their game. 175th in the nation, allowing a 33.6% clip three-point shooting. But they're very good in defensive rebounding. They're also very good in offensive rebounding.

So to me, second chance points is likely going to be the difference here. Both these teams can score, and both these teams can shoot very well. Obviously, that goes with scoring, but they can shoot the ball very well. But 22nd in defensive rebounding, 44th in offensive rebounding. This is a team that can provide a lot of second chance opportunities. And where Iowa has actually been quite good at lately has been those second chance opportunities, keeping them in games and destroying opponents with getting all those extra rebounds. That'll be a fun matchup to watch again.

Illinois vs. Iowa. Kofi vs. Luka. That is going to a fun matchup to watch again. Illinois versus Iowa, Kofi versus Luka, that is going to be the matchup I'm watching. And the size advantage might actually help Iowa, but they're going to need to be very energetic on that defensive side of the floor to get those rebounds because although Illinois is small, they're energetic, they're antsy, they get out there, they run, they move. Again, these teams are very evenly matched and they do the same things for the most part, pretty well. Just going back to Illinois, though, they haven't had the best season compared to what you would expect at this point. They've lost five games.

Lost to Baylor, 82-69. Missouri, 81-78. Rutgers, 91-88. Maryland, 66-63. And Ohio State, 87-81. So outside of that Baylor game, all these games have been relatively close, and they just beat Penn State after losing those two straight to Maryland and Ohio State 87-81. So outside of that Baylor game, all these games have been relatively close and they just beat Penn State after losing those two straight to Maryland and Ohio State. So they're coming off a victory, which is actually probably a good thing for Iowa, but what are they

going to bring to the table? Again, I think this is going to be a very high scoring game. I think we absolutely need Jordan Bohannon to be shooting the ball well because what they can do is with Kofi, I think they can defend Luka one-on-one and maybe have a couple double teams here and there, but I think they're going to allow Kofi to guard Luka Garza one-on-one. If Iowa cannot shoot the ball though, like we saw against Indiana, that just gives even more ammunition for Illinois to stop Iowa's offensive attack. And it's going to be interesting to see again, if CJ Frederick is not in that game, what do we do? We're going to see a lot more of Keegan Murray. We're going to see Jack Nunji spelling both those guys coming in.

We're going to see more of an impact from the bench as well with Patrick McCaffrey, Joe Toussaint. Those are going to be some key difference makers. And as we talked about yesterday, Joe Toussaint does not like Illinois or apparently anyone that he's playing against. So I think they're all going to be coming here ready with a chip on their shoulder. Should be a very fun game. Right now, Ken Palm predicts a one-point win for Illinois at this time. Coming up on segment number three, though, we're going to be breaking down the spreads, the over-unders, and telling you what you should be betting on

in this game, and also giving you a little preview of the Senior Bowl as well. It's all coming up on segment number three, our final segment of the show. So stay tuned for that. Before we get into that, you know, I got to tell you about betonline.ag because I have made a lot of money going through betonline.ag. It's the one place that has me covered in the one place I trust. And I wouldn't recommend it to you if I didn't believe in it. And right now they have a fantastic promo code. Use the promo code locked on after you've signed up for a free account at betonline.ag and you'll get a 50% welcome bonus. Why would you sit on the sidelines? Get in on the action. We

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and you'll get 20% off your next order. Use the promo code LOCKEDON for 20% off at BuiltBar.com. And if you haven't had enough Locked On podcast content, make sure to check out the Locked On Big Ten podcast with Big Ten Ben Stevens. He does a great job every single day breaking down all the news and notes along the Big Ten. He's also got two for Thursdays. He had a great guest on yesterday covering Iowa as well, who did a phenomenal job talking

about Iowa, Illinois. So if you want to hear more content about that from someone different, go check out yesterday's episode. Otherwise, Big Ten Ben has you covered every single week, breaking down all the news and notes along the Big Ten. Let's get back to our content, though, right here on the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. And right now we're doing a segment sponsored by betonline.ag, giving you the odds, the information you need to know. We're going to kick it off with Iowa versus Illinois and then talk a little bit about the Senior Bowl, which is important because we

have two Iowa Hawkeyes in that Senior Bowl. I know you want to look at that game. You want to watch Chauncey Golsan and Alaric Jackson wear that Tiger Hawk one more time. And I don't blame you at all. So we're going to talk about that game as well. Right now, according to betonline.ag, the spread is one and a half points in favor of Illinois. So plus one and a half for Iowa will get you at minus 105. That's right. It means you bet $105 to win $100. And that is a great deal because Iowa, I think can win this game. If you believe Iowa can win this game, take the money, take those points and bet it on Iowa. The over under is 163.5. And this is really where I want to get into. So I've already talked about the game and how Iowa matches

up, but can they get to 163.5 points? So let me give you a few pieces of information. For Iowa, they have gone, so if you think about 164 points is what you ultimately need. Technically, that's 82 to 82. Iowa has gone over 82 points 7 of 10 times against top 100 ranked Ken Palm teams. two points, seven of 10 times against top 100 ranked Ken Palm teams. The only time they face as good of an offense as Illinois was Gonzaga and it was a 99 to 88 game. The best offense Iowa has faced outside of Gonzaga was Maryland, which is 32nd. So again, why that's important is because it gets you an idea of why and how Iowa can go over these points or how the over-under can hit potentially above or below.

Combined, if you add both the point totals together against top 100 teams, the over-under has only hit 4 of 10 times for the Hawks. Which is again why I'm telling you about Gonzaga and Maryland. Because Maryland was the second best offense Iowa has played. And Illinois is 9th. So Maryland is 32nd in the nation. Illinois is 9th. Gonzaga is, I believe, second. I don't have that stat right at my forefront. But why that's important is because

we know Iowa can score 82 points. They scored a seven of 10 times against top 100 teams. Okay, they scored 82 points or more seven of 10 times. But they haven't faced that many good offenses. So typically what they're doing is they're beating teams by 10 to 15 points. They're scoring 82, the other team scoring 70, and they're not hitting that 164 point mark. But against an offense like Illinois, I believe this could be a very high scoring game. However, when you look at the fact that Illinois' pace of play is 80th in the nation, which is pretty solid, their ninth in offensive adjusted efficiency, you would expect better results when you look at that over under. So three out of 12 times in an Illinois basketball game against a top 100 opponent, three out of 12 times, 25% had they gone over 164 points. Four out of 12 times, so 33%,

they've gone over 82 as a team. The best offense Illinois has faced was Baylor at three and they allowed 82 and that was early in the season. Ohio State was, is the fifth ranked offense in the nation. And that game was 87 to 81. The two worst defenses they faced were Penn State and Northwestern against Northwestern. They put up 81 and 98 on Penn State. The reason why I'm telling you this is because a lot of, when I'm looking at over unders, a lot of what I look at is how they fared against top ranked teams. And a lot of the information is pointing against betting on that over. When you look at the fact that Illinois doesn't typically go over that Iowa has not typically gone over in both their games. But then when you look at the fact of who they've matched up against, what, how good are these offenses and defenses?

I was not going to be able to stop Illinois. Their offense is too good. Iowa's defense is the worst one that Illinois has faced out of those top 100 teams. It's the worst. So Illinois is going to get theirs. I think Iowa is going to get theirs as well. They've showed they can get theirs against almost anyone, save for when they're just shooting terrible in the gym. So personally, I'm going to stay away from the over under, but if you're going to bet on it, I would bet the over over 164 for this game. We could even see it go into overtime and continue to add on that. I am definitely betting on Iowa to cover the spread of plus one and a half though. I just, I can't, I can't go against my Hawks. And I feel like coming into this game, they have more motivation coming after that terrible loss to Indiana.

They've been sitting around for a week practicing and thinking about that game and they freaking hate Illinois. As much as you maybe don't want to believe it, they hate Illinois. You can tell they do. And Illinois hits them. So it's going to be a fun game. I think Iowa does cover and I do believe the spread goes over. Now turning our attention to the Senior Bowl. Again, we have the American team and the national team and the Senior Bowl is interesting. So I've've been down there once i was supposed to go this year but coronavirus and ultimately some some trips to my wife i couldn't really make it happen right so didn't get down there next year i will be down there the or this year i will be down there next year but the teams are divided up and they try to make them even but they also try to give coaches

the teams they want so matt rules on one side, and we have Brian Flores on the other. Matt Rule coaching the American team, which houses the Iowa Hawkeyes, Chauncey Goulston, and Aleric Jackson. Right now, it is a pick-em game, meaning whichever team you pick, you get the exact same odds for. And that makes sense. You can't really tell. These teams haven't played together. But when I look at this American squad, they have a lot big name guys on this team from big time teams Florida they got Georgia players they got Iowa players obviously they got Miami players they got Northwestern's Patty Fisher they also have Auburn Tennessee a couple good offensive linemen from there all the Alabama players they got the A&M players I mean those are multiple teams ranked in the top

five, top 10 that you can be counting on. They also got some Clemson players. So this team to me is pretty stacked. When you look at the national team, they do have some solid squads there as well. They got some of the Michigan players, which, you know, a lot of Michigan players do better once they leave Jim Harbaugh. They got Oklahoma players, they got Ohio State players, and Notre Dame players, and the Northern Iowa players. Also, they got some North Carolina players as well. So that to me, to me, I think, I believe personally that the American squad led by the Iowa Hawkeyes will win this game. However, I'm going to stay away from that just simply because in the Senior Bowl, the games can be a bit sloppy. They're not really trying to win. They're trying to just make sure people get out of there without injuring themselves.

And so there's not as much to go off of there. Other than you can look at the talent, the pure talent on the team. I think the American team is more talented. So if you really want to, I'd probably take the American team. But it's just tough to bet on the senior bowl. However, you can take a look at the over-under. So the over-under is currently set at 41, and 17 of the last 31 have gone over. It's about 50-50, just a little bit over that 50% mark,

but five of the last six have also gone over. I think when you look at the quarterback talent in this senior bowl, it's hard for me to imagine a scenario where they don't go over. They're going to be slinging the ball all over the place. The wide receivers have been having a fantastic camp. I just cannot see a situation where the over does not hit, especially with how much talent there is on this field. You look at Alabama, for example, Mack Jones, Najee Harris. I know Devontae Smith isn't playing, but they got multiple linemen for Alabama. I mean, that was one of the best offenses we've ever seen. So I'm 100% taking that over for the senior bowl, over a 41. I'm not betting on the pick-em, but if I mean, that was one of the best offenses we've ever seen. So I'm 100% taking that over for the Senior Bowl, over a 41. I'm not betting on the pick-em, but if I were,

I'd bet for my Iowa Hawkeyes on the American team. I would take the over for Iowa-Illinois if you get it at 163.5, and I'm taking the spread Iowa 1.5 at minus 105 for betonline.ag to put a little bit of money in my pocket. This segment was brought to you by BetOnline.ag. Stay tuned, though, because we do have some fantastic stuff coming. We are looking to get a former Iowa Hawkeye basketball player on the show this weekend to help us break down tonight's game, Iowa versus Illinois.

And as a reminder, we have Iowa versus Illinois wrestling tomorrow as well, so stay tuned for that. But again, a special episode dropping this weekend, likely with a former Iowa basketball player as we break down the game. I'm not going to give his name away yet because I want to make sure we get that show recorded. He's a busy guy, but if we do, we'll be dropping that early this weekend, and if not, I'll just be dropping a solo episode breaking down Iowa versus Illinois. I appreciate you all tuning into the show. I appreciate you tuning in all the time, and if you love the show, give us that five-star review and follow us on Facebook, Twitter,

and Instagram. Hawkeye Nation, have a fantastic Friday, have a fantastic weekend, and as always, let's go Hawks.