Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa Hawkeye vs Penn State Predictions: Tyler Goodson needs the ball; How Iowa will stop Sean Clifford

Episode Date: October 8, 2021

We have our final episode before the big showdown at Kinnick tomorrow with the Iowa Hawkeyes taking on the Penn State Nittany Lions. We have you covered here with the key storylines, what the Hawks need to do to win, and ultimately giving you our prediction. For Iowa to be successful, they need to get Tyler Goodson the ball, and they need to slow down Sean Clifford and we break down how they can do both of those things in the final show before this top-five match-up at Kinnick.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!SweatBlockGet it today for 20% off at SweatBlock.com with promo code LockedOn, or at Amazon and CVS.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back, Hawkeye Nation, to another episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Podcast Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade, and this is the last show we have before the big showdown tomorrow, Iowa versus Penn State, which means we are covering all of that on today's show, breaking down the key storylines and what to expect in this game, giving you our predictions versus spread and straight up.

We're covering all that on the show today. And before we get into that, I want to thank you all for making the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast your first listen every single day. You can find the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast everywhere you get podcast at and also on YouTube for free at Lockdown Hawkeyes Monday through Friday. This week, we've been breaking down everything. So Monday, we had LeSean Daniels on, former Iowa running back, breaking out Iowa versus Maryland,

talking about what we saw from a game, basically giving you an instant reaction. We have him joining us every single Monday to do that. Even following this Penn State game, we'll have him on. Win or lose, he will be there. Tuesday, we do the analytical deep dive. What did we glean from those games? Specifically, snap counts, offensive line play, et cetera.

We are covering all that on Tuesdays. Wednesday, we broke down what Kirk Berenson and James Franklin had to say about this matchup. I honestly thought James Franklin's press conference was pretty awesome to listen to. A lot of respect for the Iowa football program, just like Iowa has for the Penn State football program. On yesterday's show, we had a coveted crossover episode.

We've only had one of those this year so far. We had a crossover episode with Kevin McGuire of Locked On Nittany Lions. Make sure to check that out. And finally, on today, we are getting into the key storylines for this game before getting into the spread. So let's get into it. First thing, what is Iowa going to do that's a little unique? So when Iowa plays Penn State, they like to get a bit creative. Up until this point, people have been concerned.

Iowa hasn't been explosive except for the Maryland game. We haven't seen a lot of interesting nuances from this team. Now, some of the touchdown scores that Iowa's had, Iowa had a very interesting conceptual play design to get some of those things. I think about the fact that Iowa had that little quick toss to Tyler Goodson early in the season, a little end-around action to Tyrone Tracy in the last game. I mean, there's several things they've done, but we haven't seen them really put it all together. Now against Maryland, they were able to do that because they scored 51 points,

but I haven't seen other things. Like the end-arounds haven't been as substantial as we've seen in the past years or in past big-time games. We haven't seen the wildcat be played a lot. We also have only seen one trick play, which is actually something James Franklin mentioned. And when he mentioned, I thought about it. I'm like, Iowa does do a lot of trick plays against Penn State.

A lot of funky stuff on special teams, on field goal kicks, on punts. Even on fourth down, Iowa does like to get a little bit more creative, a little bit more aggressive against Penn State. Opportunities don't come along very often against a good defensive team like Penn State. So it'll be interesting to see how does Iowa come up with some things that catches Penn State off their toes. This is a big time game for Brian Behrens going up against one of the best defenses in the nation, a team that has a phenomenal secondary. And you have an offensive line that is continuing to get better, which we're going to discuss, but what does Iowa do in this game? I think Iowa is going to unleash the bag of plays against Penn State.

Everything and anything that's on the table is going to be put into that game, and I'm excited to see what Iowa does from an offensive perspective and a special teams play perspective. The other question is, which Iowa offense is going to come out? The normal status quo for Iowa is run, run, run, pass occasionally. Against Maryland, and we talked about this, we thought there was a good opportunity that Iowa was going to come out throwing the ball to set up the run. And that is exactly what they did against Maryland. Now against Penn State, I don't think that's the key to success. I think the key to success is

getting back to traditional Iowa football, which yes, does play into Penn State, I don't think that's the key to success. I think the key to success is getting back to traditional Iowa football, which, yes, does play into Penn State's game plan. However, Penn State has one of the best secondaries in college football right behind Iowa. Tariq Castro-Fields, I mean, these are guys who are good players at Penn State. So Iowa is going to need to establish the run, especially against a Penn State team that has been hurt in the running game. Wisconsin and Auburn, we've mentioned it several times this week.

Wisconsin and Auburn had phenomenal rushing attacks against Penn State. They strayed away from it, though. Iowa needs to continue to pound the rock. They need to continue to get the ball to Tyler Goodson. As we saw against Maryland, a guy like Tyler Goodson changes the dynamic of the game, both running and passing. And against a team like Penn State, which does have higher rated recruits, which probably does have better athletes, you need your best athlete to be able to do some pretty awesome stuff on the field, which is why I think Iowa's going to also get Tyrone Tracy a bit

more involved, a guy who can really run after the catch. Arlen Bruce. We saw some of the Jets from Keegan Johnson. Charlie Jones has phenomenal yak ability. Iowa needs to get their playmakers the ball in space so they can take advantage of this Penn State defense and use our athletes to their advantage. So I think Iowa's going to come out running the ball. And I think especially we're going to see Iowa play pretty conservatively in that first quarter. You don't want to get Penn State any momentum going into that game, and you don't want to

quiet the crowd. So I think Iowa's going to come out pretty conservative. We saw this against Iowa State. They came out. They tried a couple plays. Didn't do anything too aggressive. They're really trying to get a feel for the defense because they know this is a game. They're not winning in the first quarter.

They need to win it in the fourth quarter. And when you do that, when you think strategically, it means you're going to try a few things out that aren't going to work. And people might say, why are you doing this now? It's so you can see how the defense reacts in those situations later on when you really, really need a score. Going on, will Spencer Petras have a big game? We saw him step up against Wisconsin last year.

Now, there's several folks who still don't necessarily agree that Spencer Petras is a big game. We saw him step up against Wisconsin last year. Now, there's several folks who still don't necessarily agree that Spencer Petras is the answer. They're becoming far and fewer between, but there are some folks who still don't necessarily agree that Spencer is the answer. At this point, I think he's done about as much as he can do. I've been pretty impressed with him this season. But what he hasn't done, and I'm glad he won the Wisconsin game last year,

but he hasn't really put together and carried Iowa to a victory. He did a good job in the game against Wisconsin. There was also some good turnovers, or some key turnovers, I should say, not good, key turnovers in that game. But I would like to see Spencer Petras put this team on his back and, after they establish the run, really carry this team to a victory. The knock on Nate Stanley, in my opinion, was the fact that he was never able to beat Wisconsin or Penn State. Now, Spencer Petras was able to do so last year, but there's unfortunately an asterisk behind those wins. Was Wisconsin that good? Penn State, were they that good? I think that's crap, but I think for the Spencer Petras train to keep rolling, he needs to come away with a victory,

and I think that will solidify any uncertainty I had in this quarterback position with Spencer Petras if he's able to get this game done. And then finally, will this offensive line be able to have a strong game against a solid Penn State defensive line? Specifically, can they contain Arnold Ebikiti, E-B-b-i-k-e-t-i-e temple transfer has 22 pressures on the season has been getting a lot of pressure on the quarterback as we know spencer petrus is not a mobile guy tackle position has been interesting mason richmond clearly has that spot solidified at the left tackle spot he's had had his struggles of time. On the right side, we've seen Nick DeYoung and even Jack Plum kind of rotate in there.

But with Cody Ince going to the backup spot, are they willing to maybe move him over there if they continue to struggle or if they do struggle? Two years ago, Iowa, they lost because they could not protect the quarterback. And Penn State was pressuring Iowa all freaking day. If Iowa was unable to stop this strong Penn State defensive line, we could see a similar thing happen. If Iowa's offensive line could even have an average game, just consistently average across the board. And I think it's possible, especially with Kyler shot continuing to progress in his snap counts. And I was starting to figure out what this offensive line rotation is with Connor Colby

starting Kyler shot on the right, and then having Nick DeYoung at the tackle spot with a little bit of opportunity or options behind him. We're starting to see this offensive line come together. This is a very big test for them coming up against a very strong Penn State defensive line. Now, granted, when I say strong, I mean pass rush-wise. Rushing defense-wise, this Penn State defensive line

is nothing to write home about, which, again, is why I think Iowa's going to open up this game with the rushing attack to then hopefully get into the play action which is something that James Franklin is very well aware of he even mentioned it in his press conference the play action is something that Penn State is very concerned about so what can Iowa do to not allow Penn State to sit on those play action plays and then get Spencer Petras out in space where he can't outrun a defender who is literally waiting for him. Lots of things to watch out for in this game. Again, the offense.

How are we going to start? Running or passing? I'm saying running. What kind of tricks does Brian Ferencz have up in his bag? I think he's going to pull off some things that we haven't seen a lot of this year. Think of it a la USC. That's kind of my thought of how this game is going to go from an offensive perspective in terms of Brian trying to get a bit more creative.

Will Spencer Petras have a big game? Will he get that signature win in a signature year? I think it's possible. And then finally, how does the offensive line hold up against a strong pass rush against Penn State? Those are my four big questions on the offensive side of the ball. Coming up, we're going to talk about the defensive side of the ball. Can Iowa contain Sean Clifford? Can Zach Van Valkenburg have a big game? Can Iowa wrap guys up because that's been a problem? And what will Penn State do offensively? Will they rely on the

running game or the passing game? It's been passing as of late, but what will they do? We're going to talk about all that here in a few short seconds. I do want to tell you though about Bilt Bar, the best tasting protein bar on the market today. Bilt Bar is the protein bar that tastes just like a candy bar and they have flavors for literally everyone. They got sweet, salty, fruity, you name it. They've got it at BiltBar.com. But the best part about Bilt Bar is not necessarily the taste, although it is truly delicious. It is the health benefits. 17 to 18 grams of protein, 130 to 180 calories, only four to five grams of sugar and only four to five grams of net carbs. Amazing flavors, all tasty, all healthy. And the built bar is the protein bar of the USA track and

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free wherever you get podcasts and also on YouTube for free at Lockdown Hawkeyes. Let's get into it, though. We broke it up by talking about the offense. Now we're going to get into the defense. We'll wrap it up after that, talking about predictions for this game. Defensively, though, the biggest thing I have to worry about is, can Iowa contain Sean Clifford?

Again, remind you, Sean Clifford is number two on the team in rushing yards, 185, a six-yard per carry average. He has not had a lot of traditionally designed runs from him. That is most of him just scrambling. Now, when you look at his time in the pocket or time to throw, he has three seconds to throw. But when you look at his tackles, they have really struggled in pass protection. Caden Wallace has a 51.8 PFF grade in passer rating or in pass protection. Rasheed Walker, a guy people have talked about as a first-round pick, has a 65.1 pass blocking grade.

Katie Wallace has allowed 14 pressures. Rasheed Walker has allowed 10 pressures and has five penalties committed. So left tackle and right tackle are concerns for this Penn State offensive line. However, because Sean Clifford is mobile, he's able to get out of the pocket and create plays. So Iowa is not only going to need to get pressure on Sean, they're going to need to contain Sean as well. Now what gives me some hope is that we have a couple linebackers who have quite a bit of range. And Jack Campbell and Justin Jacob, Seth Benson also could be thrown in that conversation, maybe just a nick below those two guys.

But this is a defense that is built to handle Sean Clifford better than they have been in the past couple years. But again, Sean Clifford is a guy who is a threat with both his arm and his legs, and that is very concerning to me. Bill Parker also mentioned it as well. So how does Iowa contain Sean Clifford? They need to first get pressure on him, and then they secondly need to stop him from breaking contain and getting out in open space

and breaking down plays with his legs. The worst thing that can happen to Iowa is they get Penn State in the third and long, and Sean Clifford picks it up with his legs. Now, the tough part about that is Iowa traditionally likes to play a lot of zone defense, and so when a quarterback starts to scramble, you have to be very aware of who are the other opposing players in your zone and can you step up and make a play on the quarterback. Iowa has done a better job this year than in past years,

in my personal opinion. But with a strong wide receiver group like Penn State has with Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington, it's not like Iowa can just go straight man against these guys. They could, but I don't think you want to go straight man against these guys. They could, but I don't think you want to stick and man the entire game. So it kind of gets a little bit interesting. We've also seen on what they're going to do, at least for stopping Sean Clifford. We also have seen Zach Van Valkenburg play a little bit of a spy. Looks like he's going to stunt and then drops back and plays that spy. So we could see a little bit of that. Joe Evans, arguably

probably the quickest guy on our defensive line. We could see him play a little bit of that. Joe Evans, arguably probably the quickest guy on our defensive line. We could see him play a little bit of spy as well on Sean Clifford. So it will be interesting to see how does Phil Parker handle the rushing attack of Sean Clifford himself. And speaking of that, will Penn State rely on this rushing game at all? They've tried. They've tried to get better at utilizing their running backs, especially going into this game. They know they need to control the clock. That's what Iowa's going to do. Penn State's going to try to out Iowa, Iowa. When you look at these running backs though, KB on Lee had a great game last week, almost 80 yards on like eight carries. For the season, 174 yards, a 6.2 yard per carry average, and 3.57 yards

after contact. He's forced 13 missed tackles. So Lee's a guy to watch out for. However, they want to make Noah Kane the bell cow. He was supposed to be the starter last year. He's kind of technically the starter this year, but they haven't found a guy they want to rely on as a 20 to 25 carry back like they used to have in Saquon Barkley and Miles Sanders. And if they can't figure that out, that honestly just benefits Iowa even more. Now, Zach and Valkenburg, Joe Evans and John Wagner, I want to talk a lot about these guys because these guys are very important to the game plan. Now, I say that, and obviously every player on the team is important to the game plan,

but these guys have a very, very interesting challenge. Again, we talked about it. Sean Clifford can run. You need to get pressure on Sean Clifford like you did Talia Tagovaiola and force him into bad decisions. But you also need to not let Sean Clifford get around you and miss a tackle. That's the worst thing that could happen. And Iowa has struggled to wrap guys up in the past, which brings me to my next point.

Six missed tackles last week. Bill Parker even mentioned the fact that Iowa has struggled at stopping guys and struggled at allowing people to shake and bake them, essentially. Iowa cannot afford to have that happen, especially against a quarterback like Sean Clifford. If they are getting pressure on him, they need to be able to wrap up and stop him before he gets out in space. That is a very, very big concern for me. I don't want to just keep hammering home, but it is, very big concern for me. I don't want to just keep hammering home, but it is a very big concern to me. And that is why Zach and Valkenburg, John Wagner,

and Joe Evans are so important. If they can get pressure on Sean Clifford, they also need to be able to wrap him up. So can they do that? That'll be really interesting to me. When you look at Iowa, their tackling has improved to this point. Right now it's 67.1 grade according to PFF in tackling, which ranks them 57th in the nation. But we saw them against some really good athletes against Maryland. They were struggling at tackling the ball carrier. So Iowa needs to wrap up in those opportunities. And Zach and Balkenberg, Joe Evans, and John Wagner not only need to get pressure,

but they need to keep Sean Clifford in the pocket. And if he starts to scramble up the middle, that's when our linebackers have an even better opportunity to get to him. Finally, will Iowa make another touted quarterback struggle? We saw Indiana bench Michael Penix. We saw Iowa State bench Brock Purdy. I'm not too worried about the group of five games. And then we saw Maryland bench Talia Tagovailoa. Talia is probably the

biggest indictment of Iowa's success from a secondary perspective because Talia came into the season with very little bad things to say about him. He was really doing a great job of slinging the ball all over the field and Iowa forced him to have the worst game of his career. Probably the worst game of his collegiate career ever when you factor in the next two seasons he has in Maryland. Can Iowa do that to Sean Clifford? Sean Clifford has improved his decision-making. But the thing, again, we talked about with Talia and Maryland,

Iowa didn't get any sacks, but they got enough pressure on the quarterback to force Talia into bad throws. And once you get one bad throw or two bad throws, you see how the wheels start to fall off the bus. Sean Clifford struggled last year. That's why Will Levis got a lot of playing time. Can Iowa make Sean Clifford struggle this year? That is going to be a huge, huge story I'm watching. And as you can probably tell, Sean Clifford is my X factor in this game for Penn State.

Yes, Jahan Dotson, a phenomenal wide receiver. I trust our secondary. Parker Washington, a great threat out of the slot. You know, Kevin yesterday mentioned Theo Johnson. The guy has five catches in the season. I don't consider that much of a threat from the tight end position, and I especially don't consider it much of a threat when you have Jack Campbell, Seth Benson, and Justin Jacobs guarding those guys.

So to me, it's Sean Clifford. That is the X factor offensively. If Iowa can shut Sean down, make Sean have some bad throws, and even Kevin and I talked about this. Turnovers are the key here. Whoever turns the ball over more is likely losing this game because I think field position is going to be a huge storyline. I think special teams, and again, punting the ball, kicking the ball, returns, that's going to be huge.

And any sort of turnover gives the offense an opportunity to get the ball at a closer field position than what they normally would, which gives them an easier chance to score. And that's why turnovers are going to be the key to this game. Coming up, we're going to break down our predictions, though, tell you who I think is going to win before we wrap up the show. And just a reminder that when we talk about that, we're talking about the spread, Iowa at minus 1.5,

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for Iowa in terms of the regular season. This is a program defining, a program building win, especially with that much talent at that game. If Iowa can come out and show they deserve to be in that top three conversation, they deserve to be a college ball playoff contender, which even now a lot of people don't think they should be. That's going to be huge in the eyes of college recruits. It's going to be huge in the eyes of national media. I think that firmly puts Iowa on the map to make the Big Ten championship game

and the college ball playoffs. So the spread, it's minus one and a half Iowa. The over-under is 41 and a half. I think there's a couple things that you can do here. First, here's how I think the game is going to go. Again, I think Iowa is going to come out very conservatively. As we've seen, Phil Parker's defense sometimes struggles early on in the game. I think Penn State could very easily go down that first drive and get a touchdown. They could go up 7-0. We could go into that first

quarter, the end of the first quarter, down 7-0 against Penn State. But I think Iowa, after that first couple drives, which are going to probably start out slow, I would be shocked if Iowa comes out slinging the ball all over and scoring multiple touchdowns in the first quarter. I expect it to be a slow start. I think Iowa's going to come out in the second quarter stronger, just like they did against Iowa State. They're going to build a lead, probably get into 10-7. We're going to go into that second half. Iowa's going to make adjustments.

Kevin McGuire of Lockdown Nittany Lions thinks the Nittany Lions do a great job of making adjustments, I would argue. Iowa does as well. And at that point, the crowd's going to be a little bit more excited. They're going to be a little bit more amped up. I believe that in the second half is when Iowa can take this game over. And I'm predicting a 21-10 win for Iowa over Penn State. Offensively, yes, Penn State does have some athletes.

I think what we've seen from Iowa's defense, though, is that they can handle that, and they are able to make good quarterbacks look bad. So clearly I have Iowa minus one and a half on the spread. I had the under 41 and a half. And when you're looking at this, I know it can be a little bit nerve wracking, right? Three, four of the three of the last four games were decided by one score. It was also a close game last year for a bit too, ultimately, I do believe Iowa is the more talented team overall. Now, certain position groups, definitely not. But overall, I think Iowa is the more talented team.

And I'm giving the edge to Kinnick Stadium as well, having a very, very, very excited Iowa squad, or very excited Iowa fan base, and also a very motivated and hungry Iowa squad. You saw what happened after they played Maryland, especially Riley Moss. He came into that interview annoyed about all the hype Maryland was getting. Even coming into this game, yes, there is some hype on Iowa,

but there's even more hype on Penn State. People are still not believing in the Hawks, and you better believe they are using all of that as motivation. Spencer Petras even talked about the fact that he is not looking at his phone. His entire focus is on this Penn State game. Everyone is locked in, and they are ready. They are treating this like a playoff game. They are treating this like it is the entire season, this game.

That gets me excited for this game, and I think Iowa is going to show they belong in this conversation for the rest of the year. They're going to come out here. They're going to be excited, ready to roll. Again, I think they're going to show up a little this conversation for the rest of the year. They're going to come out here. They're going to be excited, ready to roll. Again, I think they're going to show up a little bit slower on the offensive side, but I think once they get going, they're going to put on a couple points on the board, and they're ultimately going to win this game. I'm calling it 21-10 at this point.

Now, granted, I said 10-7 at the halftime. It could be 24-10. I think Iowa does win by about 7-10 points, in my opinion, and ultimately wins this game. I haven't seen it as much with Penn State against Wisconsin. I haven't seen it as much with Penn State against Auburn. Now, that does change if Penn State can run the ball against Iowa. That changes the entire dynamic. Right now, I'm counting on the fact that I think Iowa's defensive line has done a pretty good job to this point of stopping the run, and I think

Penn State's running attack has given me nothing to be concerned about to this point of stopping the run. And I think Penn State's running attack has given me nothing to be concerned about to this point. That's my predictions though. Hope I'm right. Either way, we will be here on Monday, breaking down the game with LaShawn Daniels, former Iowa Hawkeye running back. Typically we are dropping that YouTube episode though, as soon as it records, usually Sunday morning. So be on the lookout for that. As always Hawkeye Nation, I appreciate you tuning in. If you want to hear more about what is going on in the big 10, you have to check out the locked on big 10 podcast hosted by Nate Dickinson. He breaks down every storyline across the big 10, every single week,

week, Monday through Friday, wherever you get podcasts at and on YouTube channels by looking at locked on big 10. Thank you all for tuning in. Have a phenomenal Friday and even better weekend. And as always Hawkeye nation, let's go Hawks.