Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa Hawkeye vs Purdue deep dive: Keagan Johnson needs the ball more; this o-line is struggling more than we thought

Episode Date: October 19, 2021

We do a deep dive today into the Iowa Hawkeyes loss to Purdue and project out what needs to happen going forward. George Karlaftis and the Purdue defensive line exposed quite a few issues with the offensive line, most notably on the edges. Should Iowa look at moving other guys around? Also, we break down why it isn't Spencer Petras and why the wide receiver group also needs a long, hard look. True freshman Keagan Johnson has proven to be a playmaker and needs to be more involved. Defensively, the defensive line is struggling to generate pressure and against a team like Purdue, which could be dangerous with Iowa having to rely more on cover 0. We break it all down here.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!SweatBlockGet it today for 20% off at SweatBlock.com with promo code LockedOn, or at Amazon and CVS.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.PrizePicksDon’t hesitate, check out PrizePicks.com and use promo code: “LOCKEDON” or go to your app store and download the app today. PrizePicks is daily fantasy made easy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back, Hawkeye Nation, to a Tuesday morning episode of the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Lockdown Podcast Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wadix. I'd be back for another show today, even if it is after a tough weekend. On today's show, as we do every Tuesday following a game day, we're breaking down the analytics of the game.

We're going to do a little bit different this week, though. We're also going to talk a little bit about the analytics of Iowa's entire season and what needs to happen going forward to improve. Purdue exposed a lot of weaknesses from Iowa, especially in pass blocking. So we're going to be talking about all that here on the show today. We'll also get into defense, and we're going to start with the rankings. But before we get into any of that, I want to thank you all for making the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast

your first listen every single day. You can find the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast wherever you get podcasts at, and also for free on YouTube at Locked On Hawkeyes, Monday through Friday. So let's get into it, though. First and foremost, Iowa in the rankings does fall. We all knew it was coming.

We all knew Iowa was going to be falling. That was expected. When you lose a game, it doesn't matter who you lost. It doesn't matter how you lost. You're going to most likely fall unless you're Alabama and the SEC. But Iowa does ultimately fall from 2 to 11. So let me round out what that top 11 looks like. It goes Georgia at 1, Cincinnati, 6-0 Cincinnati at 2, Oklahoma at 3, Alabama at 4, Ohio State at 5, Michigan at 6, Penn State at 7, Oklahoma State at two, Oklahoma at three, Alabama at four, Ohio State at five, Michigan at six,

Penn State at seven, Oklahoma State at eight, Michigan State at nine, Oregon at 10, and Iowa at 11. You know what? It is what it is. At this point, there's nothing that rankings really matter at this point. It's all about the college ball playoff rankings, which will be coming out in a few short weeks. And ultimately, as long as Iowa wins out, we'll get to where we need to go. If Iowa wins out and wins the Big Ten championship game, they are going to be the best Big Ten team. They'll be the only team with one loss, more than likely,

actually almost assuredly, because if Penn State or Ohio State or Michigan, anyone, they have to go, they're going to have to lose a couple games. We're going to see how the Big Ten East shakes out. We're going to be talking with Matt Sheehan of Locked On Spartans about that on Thursday. But nevertheless, where Iowa's at, 11's fine. You lose to Purdue, you've expected to lose – or, sorry, you didn't expect to lose Purdue,

but you expected to lose a game or two coming into the season, or at least I did. Now, my hopes were definitely higher. After Iowa going 6-0, I thought there's no game on the schedule that Iowa shouldn't be the better team. And there isn't, even including the Purdue game. We got outcoached. Two players played really phenomenally. Aiden O'Connell played a very good game at the quarterback spot, and we lost the game fair and square.

However, the season's not over. We have a lot to play for. Again, Iowa can still finish 11-1. They have five games. They're favored in literally all five games. They had to first get past Wisconsin, then Northwestern. That would move Iowa to 8-1. You get Minnesota, Illinois, Nebraska.

We're going to be talking about that later in the week, though. I mean, that's five wins you can get. The game that scares me the most is Nebraska, to be honest. Nebraska is a better team than what the record shows. The fact they are last in the big 10 West is astonishing considering the fact that they have kept up with every single team. They just can't close out games. It's a Scott Frost issue.

I guess I don't really know, but nevertheless, as far as rankings go, it doesn't really matter. At the end of the day, Iowa still has an opportunity to continue to move forward, continue to reach their goals. The big 10 East is going to cannibalize themselves.

All those teams that are ranked in the top ten have not played each other. That's important to note. Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, they haven't played each other. Michigan and Michigan State get each other in two weeks. We're going to see the rest of this conference is going to change up quite a bit. This picture of where we are is going to change up quite a bit. It's also worth noting that Iowa State as well is beginning to get votes,

so they could be entering the top 25 here shortly, especially if they are to beat Oklahoma State, which is currently undefeated at 6-0. I think Iowa State can definitely beat Oklahoma State. This is a Brocktober moment if I've ever seen one before in my life. So, again, Iowa's schedule, who they've beaten, it's looking pretty good to this point. So all things will shake out the way they can.

All things will shake out the way they should. Iowa is not – yes, it would have been great for them to win. They didn't. Here we are. Things are still on the table that Iowa can accomplish that they wanted to accomplish going into this game. Let's take a look at this Iowa-Purdue game. We know offensively Iowa was atrocious.

And I think one of the things I did not realize is you could see that Purdue was good on paper from a high-level statistical perspective. They were allowing very low amounts of yards in terms of passing. They were doing a pretty good job, 50th in rushing yards allowed in terms of per carry. Overall, doing a pretty good job on the defensive side of the ball. When you look at the advanced analytics, not as impressive. Even George Karloftis has not had as big of a season as you would expect. What I didn't account for is that Iowa's game plan was going to be to allow George Karloftis to line up wide outside and speed rush our young tackles all freaking day without a single ounce of help from anyone else. Didn't expect that to be the case, but it was. Iowa's offense

in this game graded out at 59.5. Let's talk about the offensive line because that was definitely one of the biggest areas. Now, there's a lot of fans out there who are not happy with Spencer Petras. Yeah, he played a bad game. He did play a bad game. It wasn't definitely his worst game of this season, but it starts and stops at the offensive line. If they cannot protect him, Spencer Petras cannot be expected to have an all-star caliber performance. Now, to make matters worse, wide receivers aren't getting open either. So we're talking about all of that. Let's start the offensive line, though, like I was saying. Some injuries. Kodians not in this game.

Justin Britt always kind of dealing with some stuff. He's dealing with some stuff earlier in this week. They tried a lot of different combinations and were not able to make it work. Nick DeYoung just had a terribly, terribly bad game. In 46 snaps, he graded out at 58.6, allowed six pressures and two sacks. Mason Richmond also had a pretty rough day as well. Only allowed two pressures, but for the most part was getting worked pretty constantly, especially when going up against George Karloftis.

Now, again, this is not to say these guys are bad. They are young guys, and they are going to improve, but we need to see that improvement now because it's just not happening. It just isn't. Now, Nick DeYoung, 58.6 blocking grade and run, 30th grade in pass blocking, which is very, very below average. Connor Colby, a true freshman, played in 45 snaps, graded out at 35.7 in pass blocking.

Not good. Mason Richmond graded out at 38.8 in pass blocking. Jack Plum came in for 16 snaps. They were trying anything. Who can stop George Karloff? Who can actually protect Spencer Petras? Jack Plum comes in. Jack Plum, excuse me.

16 snaps. A 45.9 pass blocking grade. There's three guys who graded above 50. And that was Kyler Schott at 54.5. Justin Britt at 56.3 and Tyler Linderbaum at 84.7 run blocking was a little better and as we saw the running game I thought was actually not too bad but the pass blocking was atrocious and I would needed to bring more guys in to protect Spencer Petras the problem with that is now you have two or three guys running routes and none of

them can get open and man coverage so you're kind of darned if you do darned if you don't at that point one thing i do want to call out though is that there was two things that were kind of interesting everyone on the offensive line allowed at least one pressure besides tyler linderbaum as we can expect because he's one of the best players in the nation and also tyler goodson did a great job in pass blocking as well which is unfortunate because we need Tyler Goodson to run around. Tyler Goodson is the most explosive player we have on our offense. We need him to get the ball. He had six pass blocking sets and graded out at 78.4.

Definitely some great improvement from Tyler Goodson helping to protect Spencer Petras. But, oh, well, this is a systemic – not a systemic issue. This is an issue that we've seen across the entire year. It just all came to fruition against Purdue. We couldn't do much. Spencer wasn't on his A game. Our wide receivers for the second straight week could not get open against anyone.

And Purdue plays a lot of man. We're going to struggle against man teams unless Iowa makes a change at that wide receiver position. The reason why is our guys are not man beaters. Tyron Tracy Jr. is our worst graded wide receiver on our team. He is not beating guys in man coverage. Nico Regani is not getting open against man coverage. And who is getting open against man coverage? It's our freshmen.

It's Keegan Johnson. It's Arlen Bruce. So when we're playing teams that play man and we have a bad offensive line, that is a disastrous moment for Iowa because what I would do if I'm any defensive coordinator who predominantly plays man or trusts their corners to play man at least, I would go cover zero. I'd blitz every freaking time, every single time,

and man up on Iowa's wide receivers. You're going to get to Spencer Petras quick, and is a wide receiver going to get open? To this point, they haven't. It's unfortunate. Our pass blocking is bad. We're 107th in the nation in pass blocking grade. That does not cut it.

Now, Iowa still has a lot on the table. They still have the ability to go 11-1 in this regular season. The toughest test they get from a defensive line perspective is Wisconsin. But Wisconsin can't move the ball worth a darn. darn so Iowa still has a lot to play for and this offensive line is not going to be as big of an issue for the remainder of the Big Ten West slate but that doesn't mean that the offensive line is not going to be an issue when Iowa gets in the postseason play or they go into the Big Ten championship game and that's really what concerns me a lot I do want to talk more about that we're going to talk about which wide receivers we think should be playing what is going on there and talk a little bit about tight end snaps that's really what concerns me a lot. I do want to talk more about that. We're going to talk about which wide receivers we think should be playing,

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all the parts your car will ever need, rockauto.com. And thank you all for making the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast your first listen every single day. You can find the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast wherever you get podcasts at by searching Lockdown Hawkeyes. And also you can get them at YouTube as well for free, Monday through Friday, search Lockdown Hawkeyes. And as we were talking about when we took a break, we were talking about this offensive

line and just how bad this offensive line has been. So when people complain about Spencer Petras, I get it. It can be frustrating at times, but it starts and stops with the offensive line and the fact that our wide receivers cannot get open in man coverage. Passing-wise, though, definitely his worst game. Four interceptions, a passing grade of 40.9. But when you dig down a little bit more,

three interceptions came in the final four minutes. Spencer Petras had to do something. He couldn't play, protect the football, safe football, let our team score by going methodically down the field. He had to do something and he couldn't, and that's not, that's not his fault. Purdue was locking down our wide receivers all day. So you can only expect so much from Spencer Petras when the whole day there was no one open anyways, and he was getting a ton of pressure in his face. He ultimately finished 17 of 32 for a 53.1% completion percentage and 195 yards, three turnover-worthy plays, and one big-time throw.

So not a good day for Spencer Petras. I expect him to pick it up, hopefully against Wisconsin, although Wisconsin's defense is very, very good. But I think what Purdue did is something that is not going to be replicated by Wisconsin. Hopefully we're going to talk about that, though, next week as we do our preview for Iowa-Wisconsin. What's interesting about playing Purdue is that Iowa has abandoned the run

quite a bit in the last couple years. Last year, Iowa had a phenomenal day running the ball against Purdue, and then they abandoned the run against Purdue in the second half and let Spencer Petras throw it 50 times. They get down, and Brian Ferenc says, nope, we're not doing it. Tyler Goodson had 12 carries for 68 yards and a 5.7-yard per carry average. There were a lot of cutback lanes on those inside zone runs that I thought were pretty good.

George Carlotta was lining up so far outside that he would go up the field, and Tyler Goodson could easily go around him. I thought the running game was pretty darn solid all around. Ivory Kelly-Martin also finished with 23 yards on six rushes and a touchdown. Now, it's also worth noting that Iowa was without their second team tight end, Luke Lachey, who filled in for him, though, was interesting. Last year, the big talk was Elijah Yelverton, a guy who had over 30 offers coming out of Texas, a big-time tight end. He did not get on the field. Instead, it was Josiah Myman, a three-star recruit out of the class before Elijah, and also Bryce Schulte, a former walk-on getting four snaps.

So Josiah got 14 snaps. Bryce Schulte got four snaps. That's the future of the tight end position, especially if Sam Laporta leaves. But nevertheless, it's kind of interesting to talk about. Now wide receivers. This is what I really want to talk about today. Iowa's offensive line is not going to improve with new people getting inserted. Yes, you could say I want David Davidoff. What is David Davidoff going to do? Iowa is one of the best programs in the country at evaluating offensive line talent. Do you think if they thought David Davidoff could play better

that they would just be sitting him on the bench? I don't. I think this is what we have. This is what we got. And Iowa needs to coach these guys up and make them serviceable. Not great, just serviceable so Iowa can survive the rest of the season. It's worth noting that this offensive line is very young, though. They are going to be good for years to come as they've gotten a lot of experience.

But you need to get that experience now, and you need to get better quicker because Iowa has the rest of the schedule on board. We have five games against Big Ten West opponents. This is a very important slate of games for the Iowa Hawkeyes as they try to clinch their first Big Ten title in a very, very long time, or the first Big Ten West title, I should say, in a very long time. So since 2015, this is a big thing for Iowa. They need to improve that offensive line play, but they also need to improve at the wide receiver position as well.

For example, Keegan Johnson has been our most explosive wide receiver. Two receptions for 50 yards against Purdue. I don't know how he's not getting more snaps. Now, when you look at these wide receiver grades over the course of the year, it is frustrating. We'll break it down for you by wide receiver. Keegan Johnson has played in seven games. He's been targeted nine times. He's a 74.7 receiving grade according to PFF.

Arlen Bruce has been in seven games targeted 13 times, a 70.3 receiving grade as well. Charlie Jones is third, seven games, 21 targets, a 63.3 receiving grade. Next up, Jackson Ritter, six games, four targets, 63.1. Nico Regani, seven games, 26 26 targets 62.3 and all the way at the bottom Tyrone Tracy Jr. seven games 23 targets 51.1 receiving grade now I know Kirk doesn't like to look at advanced analytics I know Kirk is not a big stats guy but when you look at this how do you not want to get the ball to Keegan Johnson our leading receiver receiver is Sam Laporta, a tight end,

followed by Nico Regani, who drops a lot of balls. His drop rate is 15%. He has three drops on the season. Three out of Iowa's eight drops have come from Nico Regani. His hands have never been that great. Keegan Johnson needs to get the ball more, though. Nine targets, six receptions, 187 yards. The thing I love about Keegan Johnson, though,

is not the fact that he can just go deep like he did against Colorado State. Let me check that, actually. I'm getting my games mixed up. But the fact that Keegan Johnson, when he gets a short ball, can also turn that into a big play. We saw it several times in the last two weeks. Keegan Johnson can turn a five-yard dig route or curl route, excuse me, and he will turn it into a 30-yard gain. He can bounce off defenders.

He has a low center of gravity. He can handle playing through contact, and he stays in his feet. Keegan Johnson needs to be in the game more, and so does Arlen Bruce. Arlen Bruce is a guy who can play several different positions and operate out of the slot very well. He can also line up in the backfield and do a nice little wildcat with Tyler Goodson. I think if you're Iowa, you've got to look at everything

in these next two weeks and say, what's got to give? I know Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Nico Organi have had some very big moments. I really think Tyrone Tracy Jr. is the most talented wide receiver on the roster still. But what we've seen from him this season has been nothing short of a disaster to this point. He played better as a redshirt freshman. You want to say maybe he had the ability to be playing behind Brandon Smith and Amir Seth-Marset. There's a game also where Brandon Smith was out. Yeah, I think it was Brandon Smith.

And Tyron Trace Jr. had a phenomenal game. So why are we not making a switch at this point? What's got to give to see Keegan Johnson get more snaps? Clearly what we're doing at wide receiver isn't working right now. Get Keegan Johnson the ball. Get Arlen Bruce the ball. Get them the ball. See what they can do with it.

Give them more of a chance, at least at this point, because when they've had the ball, they've been explosive. They've been playmakers. And we just aren't getting that consistently out of the wide receiver position to this point. So it'll be really interesting to see what Iowa does after the break. Now, I don't know about you. Whenever I watch an Iowa game, I am sweating out the results the entire time. Thankfully though, I have Sweat Block now.

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So before I took a break, we were talking a lot about the offense. I want to talk about the defense now. What's concerning defensively is that our defensive line is not getting an ounce of pressure. In the game against Purdue, an offensive line that was arguably the weakest unit on their team, Iowa managed seven pressures. What's worse about that is only four of them came on non-blitzes. When you look at these pressures generated, Lucas Van Ness had two pressures. Seth Benson had two pressures.

Jack Campbell had one pressure. This is not good. Only four pressures generated by the defensive line against Purdue. Now, I was talking to a buddy and he mentioned that he felt like Purdue was getting the ball out of their hands very quickly. And they were to a degree. The total time to throw was 2.42 seconds for Aiden O'Connell. But it's also worth noting that it wasn't a bunch of screen passes and quick slants. The average depth of target was 9.6 yards. They were throwing the ball down the field. Iowa just couldn't get pressure.

They couldn't do anything against Purdue and Aiden O'Connell. That has to change. What's concerning, though, is the fact that when they did do that, when they did bring pressure, they were leaving Iowa and cover zero and Iowa could not have an answer for David Bell. David Bell should never have gotten 12 one-on-one opportunities. He shouldn't have got a single one-on-one opportunity, but Iowa had to do it to get pressure on Aiden O'Connell. Otherwise, Aiden O'Connell was just sitting back there and picking off Iowa, picking apart Iowa, I should say.

Now, the good news is going into the rest of the season, we do not face a wide receiver like we did in Jahan Dodson and especially David Bell. We have faced a gauntlet of good wide receivers. Ty Frye, Fogle, Jahan Dodson, David Bell. Those are some good wide receivers. We aree, Fogle, John Dodson, David Bell. Those are some good wide receivers. We are not having that the rest of the year. Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Nebraska,

they don't have anyone that's worth writing home about in regards to Iowa cannot match up with them in man coverage. Now, Minnesota's Chris Abembele is someone to watch out for, but he's not on that level of David Bell. So if Iowa has to generate pressure by throwing in the blitz, they can play cover zero against some of those guys, which basically means everyone's at the quarterback or in your playing man coverage.

There's no safety help over top, which is very anti-Iowa. What's really interesting, though, about this game is Iowa stopped the run with their four guys, only 2.6 yards per carry. So why couldn't they do it? I mean, what was going on with this pass rushing attack? I don't get it. Why could we not make it to the quarterback? That is very concerning to me as we get further into Big Ten play. We're going to need pressure generated by our defensive line. We cannot afford to throw a blitz every single time. Our defense is that it's best

as any defense is when the four down linemen can get fresher. It allows our secondary to sit back in their cover to zone and have their eyes on the quarterback. When you play more man defense, you're not going to get as many opportunities to pick the ball off. That is just, it's not an Iowa's defense is very opportunistic defense. Their defense is the reason why the offense hasn't been playing well up until this Purdue point, because they're getting the ball with such good field position. Look at what happened against Purdue. Iowa had to play more man.

We didn't get a single interception. There's only one time where I felt like Iowa even had a chance to get an interception. That's how bad it was. Our coverage grade for this day, 59. Matt Hankins allowed 10 receptions on 12 targets for 207 yards. He graded out at 50.3. We mentioned Terry Roberts.

I thought Terry Roberts played pretty well considering it was his first start. He allowed four receptions on six targets for only 59 yards. It's also worth shouting out Dane Belton. Had a 67.4 coverage grade. Dane Belton played pretty well in this game. I mean, at this point, someone's got to give here, right? In the trenches where I was traditionally very good, they have been struggling mightily.

Defensive line was bad in this game. The secondary was bad. Honestly, you can't really blame the secondary as much because you should have been bracketing David Bell. You needed to stop their wide receivers, and you had to play covers here because you weren't getting pressure on Aiden O'Connell. So one of those things has got to give – either Iowa's got to be able to hold up a man coverage,

which is not our bread and butter, or we have to get more pressure with our four down defensive linemen. Against Wisconsin, this shouldn't be a problem. We should be able to tear apart Wisconsin's offense. Illinois should be able to tear apart Illinois' offense. Minnesota is going to be interesting because Minnesota's offensive line is a very talented offensive line, and I don't know if Iowa is going to be able to generate that much pressure with just their defensive line, and they do have a solid quarterback who gets the ball out quickly and a very solid offense.

So that will be interesting to me. Nebraska, the only concern I have with Nebraska is that Adrian Martinez can scramble. So I think Iowa's defensive line shouldn't have a problem getting pressure, but it's now a matter of can you also contain Adrian Martinez and not let him break you with his legs? And the Northwestern shouldn't be a problem at all either. So really, you're looking at Minnesota and Nebraska as my biggest concerns of the defensive line being able to generate pressure

because Wisconsin's team, their wide receiver is not that good, and their offensive line is not as good as it has been in the past. So there's going to be opportunities for Iowa's defensive line to get pressure without having to send extra pressure. So it's not as concerning for Iowa going forward the rest of the next five games, but going into the Big Ten Championship game or going into a New Year's Six Bowl, that is where this could be a very dangerous situation. It'll be interesting to see how Iowa comes out of the bye week

and gets ready for Wisconsin, what kind of game plan they devise up, and how they can work on improving over those two weeks. That does do it for our analytical overview of the Iowa-Purdue game and giving you some insight information, insights, I should say, into what Iowa needs to do going forward. That does do it for our show today, but I want to remind you that locked on big 10 podcast is free and is downloadable every Monday through Friday,

wherever you get podcast at. And also on YouTube is hosted by Nate Dickinson. He does a great job. Definitely check out the locked on big 10 podcast as well. You can get all the storylines around the big 10. That does do it for our show today though. Have a phenomenal Tuesday. And as always,

let's go Hawks.