Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa Hawkeyes vs Kent State predictions: Tyrone Tracy Jr, Tyler Goodson should have big days

Episode Date: September 17, 2021

We are giving our final predictions for the Iowa Hawkeyes game versus the Kent State Golden Flashes. We break down the key storylines and what improvement we want to see from the Iowa football team in week 3. Will Spencer Petras get the passing game going, can Tyler Goodson and the run game get rolling, and will we get Tyrone Tracy Jr and the other wide receivers more involved in the game plan? We discuss that before previewing the younger guys we might be able to see in the case of a blowout including Arland Bruce, Keagan Johnson, and Gavin Williams. The show concludes with a prediction, how to bet the spread, and whether or not the over or under will hit.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!SweatBlockGet it today for 20% off at SweatBlock.com with promo code LockedOn, or at Amazon and CVS.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back, Hawkeye Nation, to a Friday morning episode of the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Lockdown Sports Network. We are just over 24 hours away from the third game of the Iowa football team season, and I am super excited for that. They are playing the Kent State Golden Flashes. If you are listening for the very first time today, I would highly recommend you check out the last four episodes.

We have LaShawn Daniels on on Monday, breaking down everything we wanted to know about the Iowa State game, giving it from the insider's perspective, being a former Iowa Hawkeye football player, kind of breaking down what we saw in that. Tuesday, we took an analytical deep dive into that Iowa-Iowa State game. What did we learn about Iowa, and what do they need to improve on? Wednesday, we took a deep dive into Kirk Behrens' press conference.

What did we glean from that? Kyler's shot returning. The vote of confidence for Spencer Petras. And then yesterday, we took a look at Kent State and what they are bringing to the table, both offensively and defensively. And I got to tell you, offensively, I'm a little concerned for the first quarter. Defensively, I think this is a great opportunity for Iowa's offense to get rolling. Now, after you get done listening to the show,

you must check out the Locked On Big Ten podcast. There is simply no better place than to get all the news in the Big Ten Conference than with Nate Dickinson and the Locked On Big Ten podcast. Follow the Locked On Big Ten podcast on the Odyssey app or wherever you get your podcast app. And on today's show, we're going to be doing basically a full preview and prediction of the Iowa-Kent State game.

Again, we've talked about Kent State. We've talked about Iowa. We have not talked about them together. A couple things. First and foremost, we're going to get into the storylines. What are things we want Iowa to improve on, right? When you have a game like this against a MAAC opponent, whether or not it's a good MAAC opponent, it doesn't really matter. You expect it to be an opportunity for you to tune some things up. And after playing two top 25 teams, they need that. They need to tune some things up, especially on the offensive side of the ball. But we're going to see and talk about that on segment one. On segment two, we're going to talk about some of the younger guys that we're hoping that we get to see. Now in games like this,

if Iowa gets up 30, 35 points, which is not an unrealistic possibility, we're going to see some of those younger guys getting some more snaps, getting some more reps. And what I like about these games is Brian Ferentz doesn't just say, let's slow it down. Let's just run the ball. He wants to get these guys meaningful snaps, going for it on fourth down, passing the ball. He wants to see them and see how they react in meaningful snaps. Again, that's very important as well, so I'm hoping we get to see that. And then finally on segment three, we're going to talk about the prediction for the game. Basically giving you the betting spreads and how would we bet it. I'm going to shock you with this one.

So let's get into it, though. First and foremost, let's get into the storylines. What are we hoping to see? And actually, sorry, I didn't mean to. Before I get up on that, I do want to quickly announce Luka Garza. There was some news coming out that it looks like the Detroit Pistons might be giving him a full contract, bumping him up from a two-way contract because teams are kind of stiffing around a little bit.

Exciting stuff for Luka Garza. If and when that happens, we'll make sure to break all that down. I didn't want you all to forget or think that I forgot about that. So again, talking about some of these storylines, Kinnick on Saturday or tomorrow when you're, you know, we're watching this game, Kinnick is supposed to be a pretty day. High of 70s, limited wind, no precipitation, a good day to play some football. And from Iowa's perspective, they have a couple of things they want to get figured out. They want to get the offensive

line rotation figured out. We talked about this earlier in the week. There has been ups and downs, Justin Britt, great in run blocking. Justin Britt, bad in pass blocking. Mason Richmond, brief highlights here and there. Overall, not the best pass blocker. Nick DeJong had a bad game against Iowa State. Tyler Linderbaum, consistent as always. We're good there.

Cody Ince, pretty darn solid. Jake, you know, Jack Plum, not good, not cutting it. And how does Kyler Schott rotate into that mix? Connor Colby, a true freshman, has been playing pretty well, all things considered. How are they going to figure out that rotation? They have two weeks before they play Maryland, another Big Ten team. And really the matchup you're looking at is Penn State. Some people are worried about Maryland.

I am not. Based on everything I saw from them last year, based on the people they lost, I think this is really a nice three-game buffer working our way in to playing a great Penn State team at home, which likely will be a top 10 matchup as long as Iowa or Penn State does not slip up in the next couple weeks. So offensive line rotation is going to be huge. They're going to rotate Kyler's shot in and out of the game. I do not expect him to play probably more than 30 snaps. They just want to get him acclimated to the game speed in a setting, in a situation that's not Big Ten football. What does that mean, though? Whose snaps does that diminish? Does that take away from Justin Britz, who's been getting the lion's share of

snaps at guard? Does it take away from Connor Colby, who's been getting about 30 snaps a game? Where does Cody Ince line up at? Because Cody Ince is the guy who everyone thought could play literally any position along the line. So in actuality, that gives you some flexibility to probably play the best overall offensive line, regardless or position agnostic, really. Does Jack Plum get in the game, or do we see maybe an appearance of David Davikoff? Who knows? That's what I'll be watching for. The

offensive line rotation is going to be a huge storyline. Wide receiver play is also going to be big. Charlie Jones had a fantastic catch against Iowa State. Outside of that, name me a catch from an Iowa wide receiver. There's been some, but none that are that rememberable. Tyrone Tracy Jr. is a leader on this team. Tyrone Tracy Jr., in my opinion, could be the best wide receiver in the conference at some point. He could be an all-Big Ten type of player. I truly believe Tyrone Tracy Jr. combines some of the speed and yak ability of Amir Smith-Marset with the big play contested catch ability of Brandon Smith. Well, I think actually even being a better yak person than than Amir Sarmarset.

YAC being yard after the catch, running with the ball after you get the ball in your hands. That makes sense because he was a former running back. So, Tyrone Tracy Jr., can we get the ball into his hands? We haven't yet. This offense needs to get going. They need to see production from the wide receiver position. This is not 2017. All right, and we did not have wide receivers. position. This is not 2017. All right. And we did not have

wide receivers, right? This is not 2016. We have good wide receivers and they are not stepping up. We've seen these guys be productive. Now, was it part of the fact that Amir Seth-Marset and Brandon Smith were taking so much of the pressure off? I truly don't believe that's actually the problem. I think really we're just not getting them open. We're not running very – this is a bad way of saying this. The routes we're running are not really conducive to getting these wide receivers open in the sense that – and this is very important – in the sense that Iowa has been playing it safe. Spencer Petras is comfortable with Sam Laporta and Luke Lachey,

and these wide receivers are not creating separation on their routes. So Iowa does need to do a better job of getting these guys involved, even if it's an end around or whatever it might be, just getting the balls in these guys' hands, bubble screens, an easy way to get the ball in these guys' hands and just open it up a little bit. So that's one of the other storylines I'm watching. Defensive line, what is that rotation looking like? Why Black is falling a little bit out of favor in that defensive line play? A guy who had a lot of high expectations coming into this season has not performed that well. One of the lowest graded defensive linemen on the Iowa Hawkeye squad. In fact, I think he might be the lowest graded defensive lineman on the Iowa Hawkeye squad. And his snaps are slowly moving away. He's no longer the number one defensive tackle on the

team or no longer on the starting lineup, I should say, as a defensive tackle. So I'm very curious, what does that defensive line rotation look like? Joe Evans got 25 more snaps against Iowa State than he did against Indiana. What does that look like in this game, especially a team that's very run heavy? Does Joe Evans get in the game a lot? I'm not sure. That'll be interesting to see as well. And I'd love to see the pass rush be a little bit more consistent. The pass rush has been helped by our phenomenal secondary, but it'll be tough for these guys going forward if they are not able to generate a consistent pass rush early on the snap count. They need to beat their guys. We've seen it a couple of times. We've seen some good pressure, some Zach and Valkenburg

and Joe Evans nevertheless, but I want to see it happen. It shouldn't be a coverage sack. It should be pass rush creating these sack opportunities. And those opportunities, if the defensive line can get to the quarterback quickly, our quarterbacks are sitting there waiting to pick the ball off. Now, against this team, against Kent State, it is going to be tough. This is the team that likes to negate a good pass rush by getting the ball out quickly, slants, bubble screens, screens in general.

Okay, they don't go deep lot. They don't sit back and sit in a true pass protection set. They don't sit back and drop, do a seven-step drop. That is not a traditional passing offense from Kent State. They are a running team. So it'll be interesting to see how that all works out. Those are the four things. A consistent running game.

I know this has been a lot of talk, but we've seen some highlights from Tyler Goodson and obviously Monty Potterbaum. The running game has just not been there yet. And I think it's because teams are teeing off. I don't think it's actually the fact that Iowa's offensive line is not gelling. I think there is some truth to that. But teams are teeing off. Look at first down with Iowa State. I think there is some truth to that, but teams are

teeing off. Look at first down with Iowa State. They were ready in the box and saying, we're going to stop the run first and foremost. We're going to force Spencer Petras to throw us or throw the ball and get points on the board because of his arm, not because of Tyler Goodson's leg. So legs, that is very important. Iowa needs to establish the run, but they also need Spencer Petras again to get going, to get the offense rolling. And I think that will open up the running game against Kent State and against other teams going forward. Coming up on segment two, which guys do I want to see?

Which are some of the young guys I'm really excited about seeing get some playing time? We're going to be covering all that on segment two of the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast. I do want to tell you, though, about Bilt Bar, the best tasting protein bar on the market today. Bilt bar is the protein bar that tastes just like a candy bar. It comes in nine delicious flavors, plus so many limited time offerings. I love the white chocolate birthday cake with sprinkles. If you have an opportunity to get your hands on it, I highly recommend you

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We're here every single weekday, Monday through Friday, giving you a free podcast wherever you get your podcast app. We're also on YouTube now as well. So if you are listening to me on YouTube, love it. Appreciate you. If you're listening to us on the podcast, check out the YouTube. Let me know if you like it. Let me know what you would like to see happen more. Obviously, as we get more into this, there's going to be better graphics. There's going to be better animations. It's just going to be a lot better production, but if you're liking it right now, stay tuned. It's only going to get

better. And again, if you like it, make sure to subscribe. So before we took a break, we talked about the storylines. What am I hoping Iowa can do? What are the things that Iowa needs to improve on against Kent State, a game that should be an easy win? Now I want to talk to you about what are some of the guys I want to see Iowa get some playing time for. It has to start and stop with Arlen Bruce and Keegan Johnson. We've seen Jackson Ritter get several passing snaps.

I say receiving snaps, really. He's running actual routes. We've seen Arlen Bruce and Keegan Johnson very, very, very briefly, and mostly in running downs. I would love to see them find creative ways to get the ball in their hands and just open up the offense using Arlen Bruce. When he's on the field, he can play so many different positions. He played quarterback in high school. He also played running back for Ankeny and slot wide

receiver. We have got to get him involved and also Keegan Johnson. I would love to see them get a little bit more opportunities in this game, in addition to Jackson Ritter, who has done really well as a walk-on wide receiver. No Iowa conversation can be had without talking about the tight ends. So Josiah, my men and Elijah Elverton, we've seen Luke Lachey do well. It seems like he's going to be the next big time tight end. We've seen Sam Laporta perform.

Well, I think he still has some issues with drops and not the best blocker at times, but overall Sam Laporta, a great tight end. Josiah, my men has gotten some snaps and Elijah Elverton came in with so much hype over 30 offers.

We haven't really seen him get on the field a lot. so it would be fun to see both those guys get into the game and see how they work alongside Spencer Petras or Alex Padilla if they do decide to take Spencer out because of the score. Well, on the offensive line, we've already seen a lot of Connor Colby. We've seen a lot of Mason Richman. I would love to see maybe some David Davikoff, the four-star top-ranked player in Iowa's recruiting class, his past recruiting class, and Michael Moslinski, a guy who decommitted from Texas, a center who is not necessarily second string. He's not listed on the two deeps, but he's seen some game time. He is the heir to, in my opinion, Tyler Linderbaum whenever

Tyler Linderbaum decides to go to the NFL, whether that's next year or the year after. Another guy on the defensive side of the ball, I would love to see Jay Higgins. There's two reasons for this one. If you do not follow Jay Higgins' dad on Twitter, you have to. He is phenomenal, such a positive guy. You got to do the hawk, hawk, hawk. I mean, Jay Higgins' dad is awesome,

but Jay Higgins is a tackling machine. And I think what we're seeing is obviously Seth Benson, Jack Campbell, Justin Jacobs. Those are guys who can play on NFL Sundays. Those are guys who can be all Big Ten linebackers. But I think what we're not realizing is the guys behind them also had that kind of potential starting with Jay Higgins. So I would love to see a little bit more Jay Higgins in this game towards the end, obviously, once we've gotten a lead here. Corners, we've seen a lot of these younger corners, Terry Roberts and Jamari Harris. We got some playing time with or seeing them play against Iowa State. I would love to get them in

the game a bit more because next year, Riley Moss could be gone. Matt Hankins will be gone. We're going to need those guys to be ready to step up. We have a fantastically veteran secondary right now that will not be the case next year, so we need to figure things out and get those guys some more game action. I have no doubt in my mind that they'll be able to step in and have pretty solid production, but getting them more live action now will be really helpful, especially against a weaker passing team like Kent State. The final guy I'd love to see is Gavin Williams.

Now, when we go to the backups, Ivory Kelly Martin is getting some snaps, and I understand that. But from a developmental standpoint, I want to see Gavin Williams get some more playing time. He's a guy who, when we've seen him play and bury limited snaps, looks really strong, runs well, is willing to take on contact, is a little bit nifty with his legs. I would love to see Gavin Williams play a little bit more when we get a lead.

You cannot afford to lose Tyler Goodson, so if that means we're up 28 or 21 and you haven't pulled the guys yet, maybe you pull Tyler Goodson and you put in Ivory and you do a rotation of Ivory and Gavin. That would be really interesting to me to see as well. Those are the guys I would love to see. Let me know who you think you would want to see in this game. Again, I'm hoping we get some playing time for these younger guys. I'm hoping Iowa can build a big enough lead on the backs of a good offensive showing and another fantastic defensive showing, and we get these younger guys some snaps.

We're going to talk about that, though, once the game's over, which guys did get snaps. We'll talk about all that on Monday with LaShawn Daniels. Coming up on Segment 3, we're going to be giving you our predictions for this game. Breaking down, do we think Iowa can cover minus 22.5? I think so, but we're going to talk about that on segment three, so stay tuned for us. Then I do want to tell you about betonline.ag because they are back,

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Before we get to whether or not Iowa can cover minus 22.5, which is a hefty, hefty margin, I think it's important to know about this Iowa team. They are different. This is not the same Iowa team we've seen in past years. This is a team that is hungry. They are motivated. They want to prove to everyone

that they are a very good football team and where this could be considered a trip up game. Kent State is a solid Mac program. Do not get me wrong. This should, I mean, if this is a close game, I wouldn't necessarily be surprised because Kent State has a good program. Now, that being said, I was a much better team. So if I was caught sleeping,, could be a problem. But this is a different Iowa team. Since they lost Northwestern, this team has been on a freaking tear. You can see the energy from the players. Kirk Ferentz, you can even kind of glean that he's very excited about this team. He's not going to say it out loud, but some of the hidden things he's saying,

he's very excited about this program and where they're heading right now, especially with this team. They can figure out the offensive side of the ball. We're in for a phenomenal year. So that being said, I think Iowa should be able to beat Kent State and they should be able to cover. But before we get into that, we have talked to you about prize picks before. Prize picks gives you props on players. And I want to tell you about what I think you probably should bet on. Spencer Petras, he has not thrown an interception yet.

I think Kent State game, probably the time. Kent State, the best team in the nation in forcing turnovers. Spencer Petras has been pretty good at protecting the ball so far. Only one turnover-worthy play to date. However, I think with Iowa wanting to open up the playbook a little bit more and get this offense rolling, we could see Spencer Petras maybe taking a shot or two, which could result in an interception. So I'm predicting Spencer Petras throws his first interception. I also think Tyrone Tracy Jr. has got to get going.

I think they're going to beat him the ball. I expect six or more touches. Tyler Goodson has not topped 100 yards yet. He had 99 yards in the first matchup against Indiana. I believe 56 against Iowa State. I'm 99 yards in the first matchup against Indiana. I believe 56 against Iowa State. I'm just saying that off the top of my head. So it could be 56, give or take, five or six.

I think he tops 100 yards this game. I think he has a big breakaway run. I also think he's going to average between five and eight yards per carry. Kent State, one of the worst rushing defenses in the nation, allowing over seven yards per carry. This is a great opportunity for Iowa to get going, even if Kent State decides to load the box. And if they do decide to load the box, let's make them pay with our passing game.

Iowa's interception streak, it will continue. I believe they're going to get at least two interceptions. Now, the reason why I say that is that this team, this Kent State team loves to run the ball. If they get behind, which they will, I believe, they're going to need to throw the ball a bit more. It's going to be a bit easier to tee off on that. Some of this deception and manipulation with the play is not going to impact Iowa as much because they are going to know that

Kent State's going to throw the ball. I think that's going to play into the cards of Iowa. So I'm actually projecting potentially two interceptions in that second half. Now going on to this game, Iowa is currently favored 22.5 points. The over-under is set at 56.5. All right. Since 2019, Iowa is 18-5. Against the spread, they're 13-9 for almost a 60% percentage against the spread.

Kent State, also pretty good against the spread. 12-7 in the last three years, 63.2%. On the road as underdogs, Kent State is 4-4. Iowa, meanwhile, in non-conference games, 13-9 covering the spread. The two areas where I get a little, one area I get a little concerned at is in their last 32 games as the home favorite against the spread, I was 15 and 16 and 1. 22 and a half is a lot to cover. Now, that went back several years. Went back, I believe, to 2015 is when I pulled that stat. So that's the last seven years or six years.

I was 7, 2, and 1 in covering the spread in their last 10 games. I believe they're going to make it 8, 2, and1 in covering the spread in their last 10 games. I believe they're going to make it 8-2-1 in covering the spread. Here's how I project the game is going to go. I think if Kent State gets the ball first, they're going to go down and they're going to score. And Iowa Twitter is going to be a madhouse, just pissed off. Then Iowa is going to go down and score. And then the Iowa defense is going to buckle up and they're going to stop this team entirely for the rest of the game. We saw it happen against Middle Tennessee State a couple years ago, and I would argue against a worse Iowa defense, although still a very good Iowa defense.

Middle Tennessee State, they won 48-3, but Middle Tennessee State was driving the ball decently in that first quarter. I think Kent State might get a big drive in that first quarter, and after that, Iowa is going to completely shut them down. So from that perspective, I think Iowa will probably cover the spread at the end of the first half. I think they'll ultimately cover the spread the entire game, and I mentioned the reason why. It's not that they're going to put their subs in and just milk the clock. They're going to want to get these guys some real game exposure,

and I believe Iowa's defense, their second-string defense, can also play up against Kent State. So I'm not worried about a backdoor cover from Kent State, even though Kent State is a very up-tempo offense, a very fast offense, and they're going to be very aggressive, even if they have no chance of winning. We saw that against Texas A&M. They were trying to cover as much as they could, kicking field goals here. I mean, they were doing whatever they could. They're going to try to backdoor cover. But I think 22 and a half, Iowa does win by more than that. I'm projecting this probably, I'm going to say 42 to seven is honestly my opinion. Now that leads me to the over-under, 56 and a half. That is a hefty over-under considering a

22 and a half point difference between what they think Iowa and Kent State will score. Again, I mentioned, I think Iowa can score around 42 points. I think Kent State's going to score 7 to 14. Either way, if they score 14, that puts you underneath that 56.5. I'm 100% taking the under. That is the thing I'm the most confident in. Iowa, when their offense is rolling, typically means their defense is also rolling. Iowa is not playing in some high-scoring affair. Their defense is usually on top of it, and it's really a matter of whether or not their offense can get going.

I believe their offense will get going. I believe their defense is going to continue to shut Kent State down so they can prepare for Colorado State and then prepare for Maryland. So I'm taking the under on 56.5. I'm taking Iowa to cover 22.5. Obviously, I'm taking the money line for Iowa. If there is a first-half spread that you can get, I'd probably take the first half

because I feel like Iowa's going to score most of their points in the first half. So maybe take Iowa team over. And finally, this is the other thing. If you are betting on this game, I would take a look at the in-game live betting. If Kent State drives down and scores, grab Iowa up because it might be at minus 16, minus 17.

I believe they will cover at a certain point. So that's my projection. 42 to 7, Iowa wins against Kent State. Let me know what your thoughts are in the comments. Would love to hear that. Let me know with a five-star review. Let me know what you think is going to happen. And after you get done listening to the show,

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podcast app. And that does do it for our show today. We might be dropping a locked on now tomorrow, depending on how the game goes. And that's just a quick one and a half minute recap of what happened. We'll have the Sean Daniels joining us. I'll try to drop that video or the YouTube show on Sunday. The podcast more than likely drop being Sunday afternoon, Monday morning. And again, just subscribe if you haven't already. I love you all.

Appreciate you listening. Appreciate you tuning in and your support, your comments, your feedback. All that stuff is phenomenal. Have a fantastic Friday and even better weekend. And as always, let's go Hawks.