Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa Hawkeyes vs Maryland Terrapin predictions: Why Riley Moss and Matt Hankins will make it tough on Taulia Tagovailoa

Episode Date: October 1, 2021

It's game day and we have you covered with everything you need to know going into tonight's matchup between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Maryland Terrapins. Maryland comes in with a highly touted offense, but I believe Phil Parker's defense is going to shut down the hype and Matt Hankins and Riley Moss will make sure Terps QB Taulia Tagovailoa knows their names by the end of the night. Offensively, look for Spencer Petras to be the catalyst of this offense and expect the playbook to open up a bit more as the Iowa Hawkeye's offense looks to get a jolt against a defense that has been solid to start the season.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!SweatBlockGet it today for 20% off at SweatBlock.com with promo code LockedOn, or at Amazon and CVS.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back Hawkeye Nation to a Friday morning episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Sports Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade. Excited to be back for another show today. And this is an interesting Friday episode because we have a game tonight. That's right.

As you're listening to this, we are roughly 12 hours away from a game. Iowa versus Maryland in Maryland. Going to be a lot of fun. 4-0 Maryland versus 4-0 Iowa. Who is going to prevail? We're going to be breaking all that down on the show today. And quickly, I want to thank you for making the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast your first listen every single day. And remember, the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast is free on all platforms, including YouTube at Locked on Hawkeyes. All right, y'all. As we've talked about throughout the week, Monday, we broke down the game with LaShawn Daniels.

The win over Colorado State talked about what they needed to do to win or what they needed to do to improve from that win, I should say. On Tuesday, we broke down the analytics of that game. What went right? What went wrong from an analytical perspective? On Wednesday, we broke down Kirk Ferentz's press conference and what it meant coming into this game. We talked a lot about the offensive line and the rotations there.

He had a lot to say about Connor Colby, also about how they just made some general mental mistakes, and he spoke very highly of Spencer Petras. We also cannot forget about the time where we did get another tight end prospect to commit to the University of Iowa, Cale Vanderbush, joining the Iowa Hawkeyes for Swarm 2022. We talked about that as well. Yesterday, though the Iowa Hawkeyes for Swarm 2022. We talked about that as well.

Yesterday, though, we broke down everything to know about Maryland. This is a team that is now 4-0, and they have been lighting it up offensively. Is that fact or fiction? We talked about that on the show yesterday, and we're going to talk more about that on the show today as we break down all the storylines for the Iowa Hawkeye-Maryland Terrapin game, followed up by our predictions for what is going to happen in this game. If you've been following me along the entire year, you know I did a pretty good job of betting on our Iowa Hawkeyes the first three games. And then against Colorado State, the bottom just went,

fell out on me, did terrible in that Colorado State game. But I have some interesting predictions for this game, so you're going to want to stay tuned for that on segment three of the show. So let's get into it. The storylines. I think everyone here is wondering, can Iowa rebound after a pretty gnarly looking game against Colorado State? Yes, that was an ugly game. Did Iowa play its best? Absolutely not. In fact, I thought that was the worst game I've seen Iowa play in quite some time. That includes last season. That first half was disgusting. The beauty of that is they got it out of the way, and they were able to overcome it.

And that is ultimately what matters. They were able to overcome a pretty crappy start to come together for a fantastic second half, ultimately beating Colorado State. Now people look and point to Colorado State's record and say, Colorado State is not a good football team. They struggled. They lost to Vanderbilt. They lost to South Dakota State. Well, teams can grow. Teams can progress. And Colorado State threw some interesting things at Iowa that I don't think Iowa was ready for. They really gave a game

plan that a lot of teams I feel like are going to try to do. It is stop the run first, second, and last, and force Spencer Petras to win you the game. Well, sorry, Colorado State. Spencer did win us the game in spite of an offensive line that was struggling throughout the match. Now, granted, we're not going to see a lot of those fronts again. That was a 4-3 front, a very heavy loaded defensive line. They were crowding the box. We're not going to see that against most teams. However, coming into this game, the offensive line has its work cut out for them. The best unit on this entire defense for Maryland is, without a doubt, their defensive line. They have created a lot of havoc from this defensive line. 75 pressures through four games, 15 sacks. Guys to watch out for. Darrell Nachami has 12 pressures and three sacks. Greg Rose has

11 pressures and two sacks. There's several others along this defensive line. They are a very strong pass rushing team. Now Iowa's offensive line has been a bit in flux. We know that we've talked about it, but let me break it down for you quickly again, in case you are joining the show for the first time. Well, Kyler shots been injured. He's been slowly working his way back in the game. 19 snaps two weeks ago, 27 snaps this past week. I expect him to play roughly 40 to 45 snaps this week. We need Kyler Schott in this game, especially for the interior protection. But unfortunately, it was not the interior that was struggling mightily. It was the exterior, the tackle positions.

We have Mason Richmond, a redshirt freshman on the left side. He's played pretty well in some games. He also struggled against Colorado State. We've had a rotating bit between Nick DeYoung and Jack Plum. Jack Plum getting a few snaps, 10 to 15 each game. Neither of them have really separated themselves yet, though. But with the presence of Kyler Schott, with Justin Britt possibly playing in this game, it does allow Iowa some flexibility to rotate some guys there

if they are struggling to continue to pass protect for Spencer Petras. Spencer Petras is a tree back there. He is not going to be able to scramble. But if you give him time, what we saw against Colorado State is he can pick his spots and play pretty above average quarterback play, especially considering what we saw last year from Spencer Petras. Now there's a lot of things to continue to improve on, but if he can get his time, he is going to make this defense pay. And one of the things I think is really interesting about this defense is they play a lot of man coverage and they. And one of the things I think is really interesting about this defense

is they play a lot of man coverage, and they also have one of their starting cornerbacks out. That is going to be an opportunity for Iowa to take advantage of that. Now, we saw Iowa increase their explosive plays against Colorado State. We saw four or five big-time plays. We saw them go deep to Keegan Johnson twice. We saw Nico Regani get a nice ball. We saw Sam Laporta get a nice ball for a touchdown.

I expect that to continue, especially if Maryland does try to stop the run, like a lot of teams have done to this point for Iowa. They realize they need to stop the run first, because if they don't, Iowa is going to run all over these teams, control the clock, control the time of possession, and ultimately win that game and wear it on the defense. But if you force Spencer Petras' throw, maybe you run into some instances that we had last year with some turnovers. But Spencer Petras, outside of that interception at Colorado State where he

really just shouldn't have thrown the ball at all, it wasn't even necessarily a bad placement. I mean, that was just a really good play and also just shouldn't have thrown it. He has been pretty good at protecting the football. So I expect Spencer Petras to continue his improvement, and that'll be something that I'm watching in this game. Again, Maryland likes to play a lot of man. We've seen the Iowa wide receivers and Spencer get a little bit more in sync. It sounds like they're practicing better with getting those explosive plays. And it's now one more thing Maryland has to worry about. Keegan Johnson played, I believe, 11 snaps. Two of them he went deep on. When he's in the game, you got to worry about him. He has very nice routes. He can

beat man coverage. And if that's what Maryland's going to do, expect Iowa to have a really good day against them. And the other thing to note is that Maryland doesn't tackle well. So especially in man coverage, you run crossers and they can't tackle. A guy like Tyrone Tracy Jr. or Charlie Jones, who are both fantastic in the open field, they're going to make you pay for that every single day. The other thing to watch in this passing game is Maryland's linebackers. They're already missing their starting linebacker from the start of the season. Now they're missing their backup to that starting linebacker as well. Brandon Jennings is officially out, it sounds like. So that is going to open up some opportunities for Sam Laporta and Luke Lachey. This defensive linebacker group

is not very good in coverage and they're missing two guys. I expect the line, the linebackers to struggle, especially they're trying to man up with Sam Laporta and Luke Lachey. So that's going to be really interesting to me. I think what we're going to see is that Iowa is going to have to open up the running game by passing, which is not the way Iowa typically likes to do things. We're going to continue talking about our storylines though. Tyler Goodson, I believe is on his way to a big game.

As long as Iowa can get decent get decent first initial protection for him, getting their guys up there and at least letting Tyler get to the second level. Again, because of these linebackers, we're going to talk about that. We also want to talk about Maryland's bunted offense, vaulted offense, whatever, strong offense. I'm obviously not using the right word here. Maryland's strong offense. What can they not using the right word here. Maryland strong offense. What can they do against a real test in Iowa secondary?

That's all coming up here in just a few short moments. I do want to tell you, though, about Bilt Bar, the best tasting protein bar on the market today. Bilt Bar is the protein bar that tastes just like a candy bar. They have so many delicious flavors and so many limited time flavors that if you see it, you've got to get your hands on it. Bilt Bar is the protein bar for the USA track and field team. And it's a protein bar for me as well. I use literally, I eat a Built Bar every single day, but these Built Bars are not only absolutely delicious,

they're also really good for you. 17 to 18 grams of protein, 130 to 180 calories, only four to five grams of sugar and only four to five grams of net carbs. Amazing flavors, all tasty, all healthy. And you can get your hands on it today by going to Bilt.com. That's B-U-I-L-T.com and using the promo code LOCKED15. That's L-O-C-K-E-D-1-5. Use the promo code LOCKED15 for 15% off at Bilt.com. Alright y'all, let's get into it. We talked about Spencer Petras, we talked about the offensive line, but now I want to tell you about why Tyler Goodson is in for a big day. I mentioned the

linebackers. They're already missing a starting linebacker and the backup to that starting linebacker. This linebacker group, though, has not been very strong. It is the weakest part of this defense. So if Iowa can get an initial push on the running game and let Tyler Goodson hit that second level, expect some big runs for Tyler Goodson. Now this defensive line has done a really good job of rushing the passer, and they've shown, at least analytically speaking from PFF's grading system, they have a solid rushing defense, grading out at 74.5. But to me, I think this allows for some opportunities for the Iowa Hawkeyes to build on that running attack, especially if they can open it up

and keep the defense honest by going deep a couple of times like they did against Colorado State. I expect that to happen a bit more. I also think because these pass rushers, because these defensive ends are so quickly to get up the field, I think what's going to happen is we're going to see a little bit more end rounds. We might see the Wildcat return as well. So there's going to be some interesting wrinkles that I think Brian Barron is going to show out and bring out to this game to allow this Iowa offense

to thrive against the Maryland defense that has done well, but hasn't really played anyone to this point. And that brings me to my next point. Maryland's offense has done phenomenal. Tackle Viola is absolutely crushing it. This passing attack is second in the nation. According to PFF, tackle bill is completing over 75% of his passes.

Only one interception, which is on a tip ball and 10 touchdowns. He has zero zero turnover worthy plays, but they haven't played anyone. Illinois did an okay job. They held him to 20 points, but not exactly the world's renowned defense. Not a great defense by any means. Kent State is terrible in pass coverage. West Virginia ain't much better. They're 89th. Kent State is 92nd.

They haven't really gone against a team like Iowa. Iowa has one of the best defenses in the entire nation and one of the best secondaries. Now, when you look at this game and how to see what's going to happen, you've got to go to the consistencies. If you look at the different units, right, offense, defense on Iowa, offense, defense on Maryland, and special teams on both teams, there's only two consistencies out of that entire six units.

It's Iowa's special teams and Iowa's defense. Iowa's defense has consistently been good for a very long time. Every year they are strong. This might be the best defense we've seen in quite some time for Iowa. They don't have that true playmaker on the defensive line. Zach Van Valkenburg has done a good job. Joe Evans has done a good job. They don't have the A.J. Panezes or the Chauncey Golsons

or the Davian Nixons even or the Anthony Nelsons. But this is a strong defensive line all around, which was thought to be a weak part for Iowa coming into the season. But they have not gone up against a secondary like Iowa. And this is also a receiving core that, while very highly touted and doing a very good job in leading, doing a great job of putting up gaudy statistics, they also have 12 drops through four games. Now, the other thing to note is that Iowa

likes to traditionally play a lot of zone coverage. Tagovailoa, it's going to be interesting to see how he handles that zone coverage. How do these, you know, there's some older guys, but some younger guys, the wide receiver group, how do they find those zones? I don't think this is something that they're going to be able to successfully do consistently against the Iowa Hawkeye defense. I don't think this is something that they're going to be able to successfully do consistently against the Iowa Hawkeye defense. Now, the biggest concern I have is if Tagovaila doesn't have an option, if he breaks down, he runs. But Jack Campbell has shown he can run sideline to sideline. So can Justin Jacobs.

I expect in true passing downs, we're going to see Justin sub in for Seth, get a little bit better pass coverage in there from the linebacker perspective. But Maryland's tight ends do not scare me by any means. So Iowa's linebackers can be looking in the backfield, making sure they're accounting for Tagovaiola at all times. I think what we're going to see is a regression for this Maryland offense, and that doesn't mean this Maryland offense isn't good. I think anytime you take on an Iowa defense, an Iowa defense that is not allowed more than 25 points in nearly three seasons, something's got to give, and I don't think it's going to be Iowa's defense at this point. Now, people want to point to Colorado State and say, are you kidding me?

Iowa allowed 14 points against a Colorado State team that has struggled offensively. Did you not realize two things? One, the first half. Second half, they shut them down. Two, they gave them a short field position. There was an interception, returned down to like the 20, and the shanked punt. That's tough for any defense, especially when Iowa's put in that position.

It's just not easy for them to handle that. Two other things I want to see again. Bill Parker's secondary going up against this strong wide receiver group. Riley Moss struggled against Kent State. They did better against Colorado State. I thought they did a fantastic job against Indiana and Iowa State. So can they continue that stellar play? Can they pick it back up after two oh-so-so weeks?

We saw a lot of balls go through Iowa's hands against Colorado State. A lot of tip balls Iowa wasn't able to get their hands on. They were close, but they weren't able to get their hands on. Tag of Viola, only one interception to this point. But he's also 5'11", barely. That's going to leave some opportunity for the defensive line to bat some balls down, tip some stuff up, and force a turnover for the Iowa Hawkeyes secondary. That is Jones in for a turnover after a couple big-time first couple weeks of the season.

I think Iowa is going to force three turnovers in this game against Maryland. I think Tagovaila is going to throw two interceptions. That is just my thought. I think, especially given his size, given the fact that there's going to be some tip balls in the line of scrimmage, I expect that to happen in this game. And then finally, Maryland has some injuries. That defense that is not the catalyst of this team to this point is losing, again, two linebackers and a corner to this point. And one of their other linebackers is also banged up. That's something to watch out for as we get into this

game. Iowa is going to be very physical. Maryland hasn't played a team like that. Illinois trying to embody that, but hasn't gotten to that point yet. And Illinois has nothing to write home about yet. Yeah, they beat Nebraska. Nebraska loses to everyone at this point. But Maryland has not played a good team yet. They have not played a strong team yet. And going up against Iowa, I believe Iowa is going to be able to handle Maryland on the line of scrimmage on both sides, despite the fact that Maryland has looked good to this point. And the fact that Iowa's offensive line hasn't looked so good to this

point coming up. I want to give you the predictions though. Again, I want to give you the spread, the over under what I think we should all bet on. And then I want to give you an interesting bet that you should definitely take advantage of if you can. And you can do all that at betonline.ag because betonline.ag is back and better than ever.

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PrizePix's daily fantasy made easy. And as we've talked about, PrizePix and BetOnline is now talking about our predictions for this game. As we do every single Friday, the final piece of the show is we are giving our predictions for this game. We've talked about this Maryland offense. I've talked to you about why I think this Iowa defense can stop them and will stop them. They haven't faced a test like Iowa's defense.

This Iowa offense now has struggled from an offensive line protection perspective, but they are going to get better as they continue to get Kyler shot integrated back into this offensive line. I'm also, I'm worried about I or Maryland's defensive line, but I think what Brian Ferentz is going to draw up some end around some stuff on the edge, right? I think we're going to have to see some big time players in the Iowa Hawkeyes. And as we saw against Colorado state, the explosive plays are beginning to happen for Iowa.

And I really loved Spencer Petras's touch on those deep balls. That was one of the biggest revelations I saw. His accuracy on those deep balls was pretty darn good, all things considered. So the spread going into this game is minus three and a half. Iowa giving those points up on the road to Maryland. The over-under is 47 and a half. And the other thing I want to talk about is Maryland's total points. Let's talk about the spread first. So I look at this game. There is a chance that Maryland throws up some big numbers. They have a good quarterback there.

But I'm going to trust in the fact that Iowa's defense has been consistently good for a long time. And Maryland hasn't faced a defense like Iowa's to this point. They haven't faced a secondary like Iowa's to this point. I think they are going to shut Maryland down. I actually am predicting the score to be 27 to seven, which clearly has Iowa covering that three and a half spread. Now, a lot of your general betting guys, if you listen to some of those different podcasts, they're high on Maryland in this game because the analytics are high on Maryland, but what they're not looking at is the deeper side of that

and the fact that Maryland is putting up these numbers, these gaudy numbers against bad teams. And the fact that, yes, Iowa doesn't have a ton of explosive plays. It's Iowa. They don't typically have a ton of explosive plays. This is Iowa. They don't typically blow out a lot of teams. So, yes, a 10-point win over Colorado State is not what people love to see,

but it doesn't mean I was a bad team. The fact that this line has stayed at that three and a half, despite the fact that a lot of betters are putting money onto Maryland means that Vegas knows something. They feel like Iowa should really be sticking around that three and a half. They think Iowa can beat that. And I do too. So 27 to seven is my prediction for this game. Let me know what your thoughts are in the comments. The over-under, 47.5, I'm taking the under. Iowa hasn't allowed more than 25 points in 26 games. All of Iowa's games have hit the under, and three of four Maryland games have hit the under as well. I know that's kind of tough when you look at Maryland's offense, but I think without a doubt they are going under that 47.5. Maybe throw it in the teaser. Throw a teaser, put six more points on it, go under.

I think there's no way they go over in this game. I would be absolutely flabbergasted if we go over that 47.5. The other thing I want to tell you to go on is Maryland total points. Now, again, we talked about the fact that Iowa has not allowed more than 25 points in 26 games. The Maryland total points is minus 21.5. The one thing that remember talked about, the one thing we know for certain is Iowa's defense is good. They've shown that they have been dominant this season. Maryland has not faced a defense like Iowa and they are not going to get

21 and a half points. Again, I think they're going to get under 10 points in this game. So without a doubt, I'm taking Maryland total points to be under that 21 and a half. And I want to take this time to apologize for last week. I missed on all of my predictions. That was a rough game against Colorado State. But as always, we got to come back bigger, stronger, and more powerful than ever. We won the first three weeks. We're going to win this week.

You can tell me by taking those bets. Minus three and a half Iowa, the under on 47 and a half and the under on Maryland's total points of minus 21 or 21 and a half. Excuse me. And just a reminder that we are going to be breaking this game down with LaShawn Daniels. We might be dropping it Saturday, more than likely Sunday though.

We have to figure out some, some scheduling conflicts there between me and LaShawn, but we'll get that episode out to you everywhere that you get podcasts and on YouTube as well. And that does do it for our show today. I want to remind you that you can get all your betting information at Locked On Bets podcast. Betting on your team does not have to be a guessing game anymore.

If you listen to the new Locked On Bets podcast hosted by your boy Q and handicapping expert Lee Sterling, get daily picks, blowout specials, wrong team favorite picks, and Lee Sterling's lock of the day. Follow the Locked On Bets podcast brought to you by bet. Dot. A G wherever you get your podcast at. And I want to thank you for making the lockdown Hawkeyes podcast, your first listen every single day. And thank you all for tuning in. Have a fantastic Friday.

Have an even better weekend. And as always y'all let's go Hawks.