Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa lands Top-400 Nebraska recruit | What if Kirk Ferentz wasn't hired as head coach | Breaking down early 2020 betting lines

Episode Date: May 8, 2020

Iowa landed 3-star WR Keagan Johnson. We break down his film and what this means for the recruiting class before analyzing each of the released betting lines for Iowa's 2020 schedule. We wrap up by going through an interesting "what-if" of the Kirk Ferentz hire after Hayden Fry's retirement. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I thank God I was born on the good arms of the Midwest, and not on the battlefields of the U.S. It's a time of panic, and it's intercepted! It's picked off right away! Intercepted by Marty Hooker! Pick six! Eight seconds into the game! Buffen sets up deep in the pocket, goes down the field for Smith!

Oh! He's got it! Smith! Touchdown. 85 yards. High on. Touchdown, 10. Taking a shot in the end zone.

It is caught. No offense. Touchdown. That's either one or you have it. Go ahead and three. Yes. Two-point lead for the Hawkeyes podcast. Your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Sports Network.

As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade, and I'm excited to be back for another episode of the show today. And today's episode is brought to you by the folks at Built Bar, the best tasting protein bar on the market. I use it before each and every one of my workouts, and it is fantastic. They come in 16 different flavors. There's some nut-free options as well. Absolutely fantastic protein bar, my favorite that I use today. If you want to try a Built Bar, go to builtbar.com and use use promo code LOCKEDON and you'll get $10 off your first order. Use promo code LOCKEDON for $10 off at BiltBar.com.

Thank you to Bilt Bar for sponsoring today's episode. And on today's show, we are going to be covering a few different things in the football world. We are going to be talking about recruiting. Keegan Johnson, a Nebraska product, has officially committed to the Iowa Hawkeyes. He's going to break down a little bit of his film, talk a bit about what this means for the Hawks and how this impacts also the Huskers who lost out on a legacy recruit. We're also going to be going through the point spreads. The point spreads were released for this upcoming season. I want to talk through where I would bet on those

games and which ones I think are some sucker bets. And then finally, we're going to be continuing our what-if discussion. And our big what-if on today's show is, what if Kirk Ferentz doesn't become the head coach? And I know that's kind of a hard thing to imagine at this point, but at the time that Hayden Frye retired, there were a few different guys who were kind of options at the time. And one of those guys is Bob Stoops, and he went on to win a national championship at Oklahoma. So I want to really touch on, would the Iowa program be different? Would it be better?

Would it be worse? What if Kirk Farris doesn't become the head coach of the Iowa Hawkeyes? So we're going to be covering that on today's episode of the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. If you are tuning in for the first time and you do end up liking what you hear today, make sure to like, review, and subscribe wherever you downloaded this podcast app. Give us that five-star review on Apple, Spotify, Himalaya, or Google Podcast. And finally, make sure to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. All right, that takes care of the house items.

Let's jump into the actual news and stuff that we're going to be touching on on the show today. As I said, the Iowa Hawkeyes landed three-star wide receiver Keegan Johnson in the class of 2021. Another wide receiver prospect in this class for the Hawks. Absolutely fantastic signing for the Hawks. And here's why. And signing is obviously a loose term because he's just verbally committed. This is a dynamic athlete. When I look at his tape, he doesn't really have a defined route tree. Most of his tape was literally bubble screens,

go routes, and there was a few out routes, a very few out routes. He also plays defense. But what I think would really impress me was when the ball was in his hands he had incredible contact balance did not go down on the first hit very quick and had a get up i mean he went from zero to 100 very very quick this is a kid who is a nebraska legacy plays in nebraska bellevue high school has you know turned out a few recruits to nebraska and it's time receiver ranked the 379th player in the nation according to 24-7 closet rankings. The 30th athlete in the nation. Again, huge, huge grab. Continuing to build a fantastic recruiting class.

This recruiting class is already one of the tops in the nation. Ranked 6th in the nation, 2nd in the Big Ten. And that ranking will go down. Those rankings are based on total amount of stars as well having 15 commits which is really important we're you know a little over half a year away from the first finding that's impressive and so it's obviously a little really impressive where Iowa's recruiting class is and the fact that they are doing a great job of recruiting not only in the state but in the surrounding areas and to take guys away from, you know, other rival programs. You know, Nebraska,

you can call it a rivalry. You may not. I don't, they have to win a game, I think, to be able to call it a true rivalry at this point. And they've kind of struggled to do that since joining the Big Ten and playing Iowa. But the fact that Keegan Johnson was a Nebraska legacy recruit, to me, just speaks volumes of Iowa's recruiting ability to be able to go in there and grab that kid and what's more impressive is how well Kelton Copeland has done with developing this wide receiver group this was a terrible wide receiver group prior to him coming in and since coming in he has really turned this into one of the best wide receiver groups in the country especially in the the Big Ten. The country gets a little bit looser, obviously,

but definitely within the Big Ten, becoming one of the top wide receiver groups in the Big Ten. And I think when I talked to a few Nebraska folks, one of the things they continue to bring up is the fact that, well, Nebraska brought on a lot of wide receivers in the class 2020. You know, they have two four-star recruits, one three-star recruit. You know, they got some really talented players. They didn't need a guy like Keegan Johnson. I'm sorry. First off, that's crap. A guy like Keegan Johnson is an athlete. He's also a legacy type of guy. He's in the state. You want to keep guys like that in your state. I don't care what your kind of ultimate goal is, right? But you're trying to keep guys like that in the state because you don't want them to go to a rival. And you want that kind of talent and that kind of person who grew up being a Nebraska fan.

You want them on your team. You want guys who are committed to the program to be on their team. So I thought that was a really interesting take by Nebraska fans. The other thing is Iowa has quite a few wide receiver recruits as well. So it's not that he was scared of going to Nebraska by any means. Iowa has wide receiver recruits in that room. Just look at the class of 2021. In the last couple weeks, they got Brody Brecht,

wide receiver out of Ankeny, Iowa, 6'4", 205 pounds. Arlen Bruce, the fourth, a guy who probably is more suited for running back but could maybe play a slot wide receiver spot. Zach Twett, not really sure where he's going to play at at this point. But they already have some wide receiver recruits in that class. They also brought in, they have Skyler Bell as well from Taft High School that is looking to potentially commit to the Hawks in the next month or so. And last year's class, or the class of 2020, I should actually say,

they also got a few wide receivers, Deontay Vines and Quavon Matthews. So there are wide receivers in this group, a lot of young wide receivers. So don't use that crap where he's scared of coming. I think truly he felt like the opportunity to play for Iowa was just a better opportunity for him. And it stands out based on what he said. There's an article written in the Omaha World Herald and a couple of quotes I want to call out here.

He said, it came down to Coach Copeland and he has changed the wide receiver group at Iowa the last couple of years drastically. I see myself excelling at that program and playing at a high level. He also said, coronavirus really sped up my commitment because I wasn't able to take my planned official visits. And he said winning in program stability were sorry, excuse me. The main thing is program stability. They are trending up and the program has been really good for the last decade. And I see them getting over the hump soon. They were right there with the elite Big Ten programs.

Program stability was a really important thing for me. And that is some shade at Nebraska. There is not a lot of program stability at that school right now. I'm not really sure kind of what's happening with the Nebraska football program. There was a lot of hype coming in when Scott Frost joined the program and they just haven't really done anything with it. And I know he keeps blaming the fact that he doesn't have his guys. Well, this is his third year and he's got his guys now. So if they can't win, it's kind of put up or shut up time.

But again, let's go back to the positives here. Iowa got another recruit in the class 2021, their 15th hard commit of this class. Again, the sixth ranked recruiting class in the nation. And I think this is only, again, this is kind of the trend we're seeing recruiting really or committing really heating up for the Hawks. We could potentially see a few other guys hop on that train, hopefully in the next couple weeks. Thomas Vadome, the Iowa and Nebraska recruit, kind of really getting pulled from both sides.

He is on the Council Bluff side of Iowa. So good, he's on the other side of the river from Nebraska, but grew up, sounds like a Nebraska fan, but a guy that would be a huge, huge get for Iowa. Also, Skyler Bell, another guy to watch out for, played with Deontay Vines at Taft, a wide receiver recruit that is making his commitment in a week or so. So it might be another opportunity to get a few more recruits

in the Class 2021 for the Iowa Hawkeyes. That'll do it, though, for segment number two. Coming up on segment number three, we're going to touch on the point spreads and kind of where we see Iowa fitting into those point spreads and what we would make as bets for right now based off of the point spreads today. Before we do that though, I just want to give a quick shout out to our sponsors at Built Bar. They make an incredible tasting protein bar. I have tried so many protein bars over the course of kind of my training and whatnot for the last 10 years, um, doing marathons, half Ironmans and full Ironmans. I've tried

pretty much every protein bar in the book and every protein bar, they come at you and they say, Oh, this is going to be delicious mint chocolate chip, or there's this delicious peanut butter. And you always get that chalky taste. You always get kind of that, that gross taste in your mouth after eating it. Um, so a little bit, I was a little bit skeptical coming into trying a built bar. And after trying it, I ate eight built bars in eight days, all before my workouts, before my big training sessions. And they were fantastic. Great tasting, a hundred percent covered in chocolate.

I love chocolate, big fan of that. And I'm not a, I'm not a guy who has nut allergies, but they do have nut free flavors. Eight of them. It's in fact, 16 overall flavors. Um, this is, this is the built bar for you. If you are an athlete, if you are a guy who goes on runs, even if you just are a guy who just wants a little pick me up during the day, absolutely. You should try built bars lower in calories than cliff bars, higher proteins, lower in sugar. Um, just a fantastic, you know, fantastic protein bar. that'll get you through your day. Right now, we have a very special promo code that you can use to get your customized package of Built Bars today.

Go to BuiltBar.com and use promo code LOCKEDON and you'll get $10 off your first order. Use promo code LOCKEDON for $10 off at BuiltBar.com. All right, we are back with segment number two of the show today. And as I tease a little bit, we are going to be talking about the point spreads that were recently released for the Iowa Hawkeyes in the 2021, or sorry, excuse me, the 2020 season. Again, this is very, very early. Things are going to change.

Who knows if we even have a football season. But if we do, it's always worth talking a little bit about the spreads. And I'm not a huge betting guy. Betting was just legalized in Colorado where I live, so it's probably going to pick up a little bit. But nevertheless, I still like to watch the spread and kind of see where Iowa is at. Those guys are usually pretty intelligent about why they set those spreads.

But Iowa is the team that typically is a spread breaker. They're the kind of team that really ruins gambling hopes and the people who want to bet against Iowa. They ruin a lot of those hopes because they can keep games pretty close. Let's walk through the spreads that have been released by the Elite Sportsbooks mobile sports betting in Iowa right now they have Iowa State and Iowa Iowa is favored by three points they have Iowa State at home I'm taking that I think Iowa can beat Iowa State by more than three at home I have nothing else to go off of I mean those games are so hit or miss, usually pretty close. We saw last year the game came down to a botched punt return. But I do think that Iowa is the more elite, talented team. Brock Purdy is a fantastic quarterback in his own right,

but I don't think he's going to be able to handle Iowa's defense. They're a very strong defense, even after losing a few top players like Michael Ojemudia and Christian Welch and AJ Paneza in the draft at Minnesota plus three. So Iowa is actually getting three points on the road at Minnesota. Um, I'm going to take that. I just don't foresee Iowa losing to Minnesota. Um, maybe it's the bias in me against Minnesota and the fact that I hate Minnesota. Um, mostly because they came all up in my mentions about everything this year when they couldn't handle the fact they were actually winning some games. I do think they were, I don't think they're as talented as their record said. I thought they were a really

strong team as a team, but especially on their defensive side, losing Antoine Winfield is a huge, huge loss. Tyler Johnson had a lot of drops, but he was their number one receiver. Definitely one-dimensional attack now. I feel like not as strong of a passing attack. Tyler Johnson had a lot of drops, but he was their number one receiver. Definitely one-dimensional attack now. I feel like not as strong of a passing attack without Tyler Johnson on there. Rashad Bateman could be a first-round pick in next year's draft, but nevertheless, I don't think that's going to be as difficult for Iowa to maintain. The one thing to keep in mind here, though, that is on a Friday, so it really depends on how Iowa is looking

and whether or not they played well against Iowa State, but that will be kind of one to watch. Northern Illinois, Iowa is looking and whether or not they played well against Iowa State. But that will be kind of one to watch. Northern Illinois, Iowa is favored by 17.5. I'm taking that spread all day. Michigan State, Iowa is favored by 4. I'm taking that as well. I think Michigan State is going to have a down year this season.

I don't think they're going to be very good, especially under a new coach, kind of getting his new guys in, his scheme, that kind of thing. The next week, though, or the next week of of their season they go on the road to Ohio State they are getting 17 points here's the thing I don't think Iowa's gonna beat Ohio State but I think they'll keep it closer than 17 points Iowa does not lose by that many points I think we can go back through the entire tenure of Nate Stanley's career and And I don't know if they've, I don't think they lost by 17 points. Maybe that Wisconsin game where they lost, but that was, I mean, they were in that game and actually ahead in the fourth quarter.

So I definitely taking Iowa there to at least cover not to win. At Penn State, they are getting seven points. I'm not overly impressed by Penn State. I think they've done a great job of beating Iowa as of late however I think Iowa is a more talented team in this situation I think Iowa can dominate the line of scrimmage with a fantastic offensive line and I think defensively they can hang with Penn State's team Penn State no longer has KJ Hamler which is fantastic for

Iowa's defense because a guy like KJ Hamler really destroys Iowa's defense. Obviously, Penn State's going to have great athletes. They always do, but I think Iowa can actually win that game. I'm picking Iowa to cover that. First, Northwestern. Iowa's favored by 14.5. That is a fool's bet. I am not taking that.

I am going the under on that. Anytime you play Northwestern, you have to expect it to be a close game. I know last year was kind of an anomaly. You better believe that Pat Fitzgerald is not going to have his team in that position again. They are going to be a better team this upcoming year. At Illinois, Iowa is getting 13 points again. Illinois is coming on. I don't know what to make of Illinois.

I'll be interested to see how they play at the beginning of this upcoming season. They had a lot of transfers last year. That definitely helped a little bit with the resurgence of their program. At this point, I'm taking the under on that. I'm keeping that game close. I think Illinois wants to beat Iowa. They look at Iowa as a team that they do not want to lose at more so than a lot of other teams.

So I'm actually taking the under on that, but Iowa wins. Nebraska, I don't like that line negative three the last couple games have been really close I don't know how to take that game I'm taking the under actually I think it's going to be a close game this year again I think Nebraska clearly

is treating this as a rivalry I think they hate Iowa I think their fans hate Iowa and they're going to be pumped up and they're going to be ready to play it also depends on how their season is going if Nebraska gets off to a sluggish start I think they hate Iowa. I think their fans hate Iowa, and they're going to be pumped up, and they're going to be ready to play. It also depends on how their season's going. If Nebraska gets off to a sluggish start, Iowa's going to blow them out. If Nebraska gets off to a good start in the season,

and they're even in bowl eligible, I think they could come into this game really amped up, and that'll make it tough for Iowa, but I do think Iowa wins. At Purdue, negative 9.5 points. Iowa is favored by 9.5. I'm taking Purdue to negative 9.5 points. Iowa is favored by 9.5. I'm taking Purdue to cover that. I don't think Iowa is going to beat Purdue by more than 9.5. Jeff Braum has really had Iowa's number.

Even last season, depleted by injuries, Purdue made it a close game. That's a sneaky game that I feel like Iowa could let down as they look forward. Coming off a game against Nebraska, looking forward to the game against Wisconsin. Purdue was a sneaky game that I think Iowa could, um, you know, catch themselves sleeping in. And then finally the last game against Wisconsin, um, Iowa is getting four and a half points. I really want to take Iowa in this game, but just, there's nothing in me that can take Iowa in a game against Wisconsin until Iowa beats Wisconsin. So I guess what I'm saying is I'm taking Wisconsin to cover that. It's tough.

When we get close to the game, we'll see how Iowa's playing. Obviously, I'll make my picks for each week as well when we get closer to each of these games. At this point, I would take Wisconsin to cover. we get closer to each of these games. At this point, I would take Wisconsin to cover. And if you look at that, basically off of my, my predictions, I'm looking at Iowa going nine and three or eight and four this season. Um, I think the Ohio state game would be tough. Penn state could be a tough one. Um, Purdue could be a tough one as well. Minnesota on the road. And then Wisconsin that's, you know, those are some tough games that I think if Iowa can go, if I would go 10 and2 or 9-3,

I consider that a pretty successful season with a new quarterback being broken in and all those things. If they somehow manage to go those, that'd be awesome. If they go 8-4, all right. If they go anything under 8-4, obviously that's a disappointment with how much talent is currently on this team. But those are my thoughts. Those are my predictions.

Let me know what your thoughts are. I'll retweet this tweet with the point spreads. That way you can all see kind of what I was going off of. Let me know what your thoughts are and whether or not you think Iowa can cover on those spreads. Coming up though on segment number three, we're going to break down one of the biggest what-ifs in Iowa Hawkeye history. What if Kirk Ferentz doesn't become the head coach of the Iowa Hawkeyes. All right, we are back for our third and final segment of today's episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast brought to you by the great folks at Built Bar. Use promo code LOCKEDON to get $10 off your first purchase of Built Bars at BuiltBar.com. And on our final segment of today, we're continuing our theme of what if,

which we started on Monday, breaking on into today. And the big what if I want to talk about is what if Kirk Ferentz doesn't become the head coach at the University of Iowa? And it might be hard to imagine now that that could have even happened, but that was a true possibility.

When Hayden Fry was retiring, the current athletic director at Iowa was looking at Bob Stoops, former coordinator for the Hawks. He was also looking at Kirk Ferentz, and they were looking at Chuck Long. It's not like there's a few other guys they're also kind of looking at. But the favorite for that job from a fan's perspective was undoubtedly Bob Stoops. And Bob Stoops was a guy who was also getting some other looks. He was getting a look at Oklahoma, who was coming off, that team was coming off a pretty bad season. And he, you know, he was, had to basically make a decision. He wanted to hold off.

I think he wanted to take the Iowa job. I think that probably would have been his dream job if it's me speculating based off his history at Iowa. But ultimately, Iowa's athletic director at the time decided that he wanted to make sure he interviewed Kirk Ferentz. That was Bob Balsby. He's actually the current Big 12 commissioner, which is kind of ironic at this point. Actually, I think he still is. Let me check that real quick. But he actually was the athletic director at University of Iowa at the time. He wanted to interview. Yeah, he is currently the currently the fourth, the Big 10 commissioner. Yep. So Iowa native, a guy who wanted to interview Bob Stoops, Chuck Long, and Kirk Ferentz.

And Bob Stoops wanted him to make a decision. Kirk Ferentz was still on the docket to be interviewed. He said he wanted to interview Kirk. In that time, Oklahoma offered him the head coaching job. And it sounds like Stoops decided to accept the job at Oklahoma. Now, what happens if Bob Stoops comes to Iowa? What happens if Kirk Ferentz doesn't come to Iowa? Now, here's the thing. I think from a program perspective, the concept of Iowa football would not have changed that drastically. Obviously, Bob Stoops

and Kirk Ferentz are two different men, but they're built from a relatively similar cloth. These are both guys who have been around Hayden Fry. They understood what the Iowa football program meant. They also were just fantastic coaches. Look at what Bob did at Oklahoma. In 18 years, he went 9-9 in bowl games, had a.798 winning percentage, went 190-48,

was ranked first in the nation during 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 5 different seasons. He also finished as the National Champions in 2000 just one year after taking over a pretty desolate program.

This team was just dominant. He won over 10 games 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 times he won over 10 games. So if you just purely look at it from a record perspective, he overcame Kirk Ferentz. He beat Kirk Ferentz in what you consider coaching legacy, that kind of stuff, wins, national championships, all that stuff. Now, let's look at some of the other pieces, though. It's not just the coach that makes a team successful.

Oklahoma has had a successful program throughout the history of college football. You start looking back to the year 1938, and from that time, Oklahoma finished in the top 25 almost every single year except for about 10 seasons. So the winning tradition was there for the Oklahoma Sooners. That winning tradition carries along into recruiting as well. Iowa, under Hayden Fry, built a program that had some legacy, but it wasn't a true blue blood. It still isn't a true blue blood like teams like Oklahoma is. And you also get to consider the fact that the talent pool at that time, Oklahoma's right next to Texas.

Oklahoma, Texas, big, big football states. That's another great recruiting tool for Bob Stoops that he used to kind of build on those programs. And again, a blue blood program that had a lot of history and legacy with it. So I think had Bob Stoops been the head coach, Iowa, I truly don't think that I was trajectory would have changed significantly. Um, that team was a team without a lot of talent on it. Um, the recruiting pipelines, very limited, um. The state of Iowa is not typically known as a hotbed for recruiting. It's getting better nowadays, but not typically known as a

hotbed. I think both coaches are fantastic, but it is a great what-if to think about. I'd be curious to see what you all think. If Bob Stoops took the head coaching job at Iowa, does Iowa win a national championship? I personally don't think so. I think Kirk Ferentz has coached this team up as much as he could. I also will say, I think the program type, the fact that Iowa is a hard-nosed

fight-to-the-death type program winning the trenches, I do think that would have also carried over from Bob Stoops. Even though you saw some of the high-flying passing attacks under Bob Stoops, I do think the offense wouldn't have changed that significantly all things considered with Bob Stoops had he taken over for the Iowa Hawkeyes instead of Kirk Ferris. But again, it's a very interesting thing to look at. A little bit more of a personality than Kirk in terms of a little bit more high energy,

I think you could say, to the media. But it would have been very interesting. A defensive-minded guy who I think would have continued that defensive presence. Imagine Phil Parker with him. What a fantastic combo that could have been. The offense definitely could have looked a little bit different, though. It depends on how much of the philosophies he took from Hayden Fry, how much of the philosophies he took from some other guys. Kirk Ferentz, you know, a big lineman guy, zone-blocking scheme.

Bob Stoops, a defensive guy, not a guy who dealt as much on the offensive side. He might have brought in a guy who could have maybe changed the way that offense was run. But, again, kind of an interesting thing to look at. Another guy who was also in the mix for that job was Chuck Long. I'm glad they decided to not make the splashy hire and go with Kirk Ferens. Chuck Long did not exactly have a very great head coaching career. I believe he went 9-27 at San Diego State, so not exactly ideal. Was fired after his third season. So again, one of those really interesting what-ifs. I'd be interested to hear what you all think could have happened

had Kirk Ferentz not been the head coach. I do think the ultimate trajectory of the program would have been similar. I think the program legacy would have been around the same. I don't think Bob Sooms could have won a national championship at Iowa simply for the recruiting pool and the fact that there's not as much, there wasn't a legacy pull that comes from Oklahoma that comes with Iowa. It just doesn't happen at Iowa. There wasn't that legacy pull that comes from Oklahoma that comes with Iowa. It just doesn't happen at Iowa. There wasn't that legacy buildup.

So a little bit easier to turn around a program that had been traditionally one of the best programs in the country versus a program that had come on late in the last 20 years under Hayden Fry. So interesting stuff to think about. Always fun to look at the what-ifs and kind of what could have happened and how things could have changed based off certain decisions that were made. Again, let me know what you think about that what-if and what you think could have happened and how things could have changed based off certain decisions that were made. Again, let me know what you think about that what if and what you think would have happened had Kirk Behrens not been the head coach of the Iowa Hawkeyes. And again, thank you all for tuning into today's episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast.

Absolutely appreciate all your love and support. And as you know, we've talked a lot about the NFL Draft on this podcast. And if you do like the NFL Draft talk, make sure to follow the Locked On NFL Draft podcast hosted by Benjamin Solak and Trevor Sykema. They do a fantastic job on the network breaking down the NFL Draft every single day. So make sure to check out their episodes Monday through Friday. And again, thank you all for tuning in. If you did like what you heard today, make sure to like, review, and subscribe wherever

you downloaded this podcast app. And make sure to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. We'll be back Monday with another episode of the lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. And then back on Tuesday for our special TBT Tuesday episode with another special guest from the Iowa United squad. Have a face. Excuse me. Have a fantastic and safe weekend.

Hawkeye nation and go Hawks!