Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa State victory deep dive: Where the Iowa Hawkeye's offense is struggling and why it isn't all on Spencer Petras

Episode Date: September 14, 2021

We do our Tuesday deep dive into the advanced analytics of the Iowa Hawkeyes win over the Iowa State Cyclones. We break down why there is a change happening on the defensive line with Yahya Black moving to the second unit, and how well our linebacker group actually did play on Saturday. Offensively, Spencer Petras certainly has to improve but so does the rest of the team including our offensive line and wide receivers.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!SweatBlockGet it today for 20% off at SweatBlock.com with promo code LockedOn, or at Amazon and CVS.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back Hawkeye Nation to a Tuesday morning episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Sports Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade, the Iowa Hawkeye expert here at the Locked On Podcast Network. And I'm excited to give you this Tuesday morning episode. Obviously, if you haven't had a chance to, you've got to check out our episode we did with LaShawn Daniels, former Iowa Hawkeye running back.

We broke down the win over Iowa State with him. Basically an instant reaction, talking to him about what was going on in that game. We touched on a lot of different subjects. On today's show, we're going to be breaking down the analytics of that game. What have we learned about this Iowa football team to this point? What do we know about Spencer Petras? Honestly, the answer might surprise you. We're going to be breaking down offense, defense, and getting into,

is Iowa the best team in the Big Ten Conference right now? The answer might surprise you. We're going to be breaking down offense, defense, and getting into, is Iowa the best team in the Big Ten Conference right now? The answer is yes. Ranked in the top five, it is going to be a special year, hopefully. We're going to talk about all that on the show today. Before we get into that, though, I do want to tell you about the Locked On Big Ten Podcast because there is simply no better place to get all the news on the Big Ten Conference than with Nate Dickinson and the Locked On Big Ten Podcast. Follow the Locked On Big Ten Podcast on the Odyssey app or wherever you get your podcast

app. And like I said, we're going to touch on a lot of different subjects today, mostly covering what happened in this Iowa-Iowa State game. Stay tuned for the rest of this week, though. Tomorrow, we're breaking down Kirk Behrens' press conference, talking a little bit more about the big Iowa commit we got from a basketball perspective. Josh Dix, the number one in-state recruit, signing with or committing to the University of Iowa, which is a big-time get for Fran McCaffrey.

We're going to talk about that and what it means for this recruiting class on tomorrow's episode. I just want to make sure we break down the Iowa State game before moving on. So Josh Dix does commit to the University of Iowa, which is awesome. We're going to talk about all that on tomorrow's show. I also want to apologize. I am dealing with a respiratory virus. It is not COVID. I got tested. But if I have to mute and cough and you hear kind of a blank silence, or if you're watching

on the YouTube channel, which you can do for free Monday through Friday and Saturday and Sunday, I guess you want to listen to the episode then. I apologize, but I am trying to get through. And I want to do it for you all because this show is going to be awesome. So let's get into it. As you all know, I like breaking down the analytics of things. I think when you look at the game film and you look at the analytics, it helps tell you – tell a better picture of what's kind of happening in the game flow. Before we get to the analytics, though, I want to quickly touch on the fact of that last drive of the first half for Iowa State. I saw a lot of people on Twitter talking about Phil Parker

and how they hate the prevent defense. The prevent defense is ridiculous, and we should have never let Iowa State score. You're absolutely right. It is ridiculous that Iowa State scored. We also need to give credit to Iowa State. They had a really nice drive there. Brock Purdy made some really good throws.

And I went back and looked at the tape because I was wondering, I was like, what is this prevent defense we're talking about? I think it's easy to assume Iowa was in a prevent defense and they allowed those chunk yards. But when you look at each play, here's what happened. Play one, a swing pass the running back. They get four yards. Play two, the D-line gets a lot of pressure, but they do a little short out route with the running back or basically an in route, I guess, with the running back. And it looked like he might have been identified as a blocker, but also that Jack Campbell and Seth Benson both were in the same zone. They both headed to the same spot, which left Jack Campbell out of position and Brees Hall to get the ball. Big gain for Brees Hall. saw. Play three, a quick out to Charlie Kohler. I believe it's Charlie Kohler. Hankins playing slightly off, but they usually do that. Watch any time Iowa's on defense. For the most part, one of the corners is backing off between eight and 10 yards. I've seen Riley Moss back off 12 to 15 yards a time, even when it's not an opportunity for a big play. Two-yard pass,

it's good. Play four, a couple things about this play, and that's the play I think people are most upset about. When you look at that play, here's what happened. You have the tight end running a drag route. Dane Belden and Kayvon Merriweather attacked up on the tight end running the drag route. That leaves Riley Moss on the left side with two guys coming at him. Rightfully so, he takes the guy going deep. The second guy does a deep in, all right?

At that point, Jack Horner is also on one guy back. To me, it looked like they were playing a little bit of a cover too because Matt Hankins was playing up for some reason at that cornerback spot. He took the running back on the backside, which left there a vulnerable area. Jack Horner has that wide receiver on the right side of the field. He notices that the ball, it looks like Brock Purdy is going to throw it to the guy underneath that Riley Moss was not able to cover because he had the other guy going deep. And Jack Campbell and Seth Benson maybe just slightly up a little bit too much.

They thought they were able to get their hands on it. And then the worst part about this, Jack Kerner overcorrects, tries running towards the wide receiver, and takes an interesting route, maybe not the angle that I would normally suggest, I guess, but I'm not going to sit there and question. He's a fantastic safety for us. But Jack Kerner takes an interesting route and falls down. That all happened in one play.

We had a couple guys that looked like maybe some miscommunication, obviously with the falling down. Iowa's not playing prevent defense. They just struggled on that one drive significantly. And the fact they were doing the hurry up consistently does make it difficult to get those calls into the defense to know what is happening. And Brock Purdy made a phenomenal throw to him. So credit to him that we're not playing prevent defense.

Iowa's defense just got handled there pretty mightily, which happens. Moving on to the defense from an analytical perspective, a couple things I want to talk about. Coverage grade. Through two games, Iowa's third best in the nation. So when you talk about playing the prevent and whatnot, Iowa's coverage has actually been pretty phenomenal. The struggling part is their pass rush and their tackling.

Their tackling is 14th worst in the nation right now. All that, they have the 28th best defense. They still have a little bit of work to do in the rush defense. They still have a little bit of work to do from a pass rush perspective, although in this game they did get a lot of pressure, even though Brock Purdy did have a lot of time. So it's kind of a mix of Brock Purdy having plenty of time and Iowa's coverage being so good that pass rush eventually got there.

When we look at the pass rush, Joe Evans was a huge part of that. Joe Evans only got, I believe, eight or nine snaps in the first game against Indiana. In this game, 37 snaps, nine pressures on 37 snaps, one sack, three hits, one batted down ball. Zach and Valkenburg right behind him at six pressures, despite literally being held onto the entire time. I felt like they could have called a holding call on Zach and Valkenburg or against the offensive lineman handling Zach and Valkenburg on almost every single play. Again, Iowa gets 29 pressures. That's less about the pass rush and more about the coverage. Typically, a good pass rush makes a good coverage look good. A good coverage can

also allow the pass rush to look good as well. If you have four seconds to get to the pass rusher, any halfway average defensive line will make that happen. Now, speaking of that defensive line, Y.A. Black was thought to be the starter, he has really struggled. On tape, he is not showing up. And in the analytics department, he has been graded out as one of the worst defensive linemen on our team. Against Indiana or against Iowa State, a 39.7 grade.

So to give you some concepts, 50 is average. Anything above that's above average. Anything below that's above average. Anything below that's below average. You ideally want to be really in that 60 to 70 range or above. 39.7, the worst on the team. He was in the field for 25

snaps. His snaps are getting taken away by Logan Lee, who is performing better than Wyatt Black. Now again, we've also faced a really good offensive line. Iowa State's offensive line is one of the best in the country. We finally get some cupcakes coming up, so hopefully this defensive line can begin to figure it out a little bit more because we're not seeing it from some of the guys as much as we are from the other guys. Now the linebacker spot, I thought the linebackers played

all together outstandingly, but one of the things we're noticing is some missed tackles. A couple times they blew into the gap they missed an arm tackle against Brees Hall that's going to happen Brees Hall is a fantastic running back he is going to make people miss tackles 13 missed tackles though combined between the entire team Jack had three Seth had two in coverage Jack was targeted seven times allowed seven catches now that's going to happen when you have the zone and you have basically PFS, if it's looking at it and saying, who is the guy in that zone? It can be a little bit difficult.

Obviously, Iowa's a bend, but don't break defense. I don't look too much into that. But it is worth noting if this continues to be a trend. Seth really graded out poorly simply because his tackling was so bad, missing two tackles in that game. But a huge part of it was not just the tackling. And then Justin Jacobs, this is a guy who I'm really excited about. We're seeing his potential kind of shine.

In 29 snaps, he was targeted twice, allowed one catch, but that one catch he didn't allow, the pass breakup, was phenomenal coverage, really enjoyed that. 16 of his 18 passing snaps were in coverage, so only two of his snaps he was actually rushing when they were in passing down versus Seth and Jack were rushing a bit more. So using Justin in coverage. And what we noticed was when Iowa went to a 4-2-5 look, especially in third down and big passing downs,

they were bringing Justin in, which I thought was really fun to see as well, seeing what way you can get him on the field to make this pass defense even better in some of those sub packages. So I'm really excited about that. That's kind of what we noticed from the analytics perspective and defensive side of the ball on coming up on segment two, we're going to get into the offensive side of the ball and what those analytics said, especially talking about Spencer Petras, as you know,

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So again, go to rockauto.com right now and see all the parts available for your car or truck right locked on in their How Did You Hear About Us box so they know we sent you. Amazing selection, reliably low prices, all the parts your car will ever need, rockauto.com. And let's get into offense. What happened on the offensive side of the ball? Again, a lot of people are very upset about how this offense played. I'm here to tell you it happens. I think the biggest thing we need to realize is that Kirk Ferentz plays the game he needs to to win the game. Their defense, the Iowa Hawkeye defense, is doing a phenomenal job.

The Iowa Hawkeye offense just needed to not turn the ball over and get points where possible. Yes, there's a lot of things to improve. Spencer Petras needs better pocket awareness, needs to throw the ball away on third down. The wide receivers are not getting as much separation as we would hope. We're playing two great secondaries. Indiana and Iowa State have two of the best secondaries in the nation. Pass blocking

has been a struggle. They are grading out as one of the worst pass blocking units in the country. That's not good. On top of that, we're struggling with drops. To this date, four drops have been credited to Iowa receivers. I would argue it's somewhere actually between four and eight. Some of the harder hits and stuff, they're not counting those drops, but four drops or two games.

Spencer Petras' adjusted completion percentage, if you'd count those drops as catches, is around 62.5%. He has not turned the ball over yet. He has only one turnover-worthy play to this point. Remember last year? Throws the ball 50 times against Purdue, Northwestern, turns the ball over, we lose the game. Doesn't turn the ball over against Iowa State, we win the game.

To this point, he has only played Power 5 schools, and he's gone 8-2. Yes, it is not pretty. Yes, there is so much more to be desired. But you've got to look at some of the positives that we're seeing. That ball to Charlie Jones, one of the prettiest passes I've seen in quite some time. That ball had one place it could go where Charlie Jones could catch it and we were going to score. One place.

And he made that throw. That's the game. Right? You get 14 points. Iowa State doesn't score after that drive, but they get to 14-10. Iowa State doesn't score again until late in the fourth quarter. That's a huge throw by Spencer Petras. Now, I'm really interested to see how he can build his confidence up

going into these two cupcake games. I don't want these to be just gimmies, right? We do need to take these seriously. But I would love to see Spencer Petras light it up and have a big day and get the wide receivers more involved in the game. And again, going forward, we're not going to see a defense like Iowa State or Indiana's until Wisconsin's. Penn State's looked all right, but for the most part, we're not seeing a defense like that until we get to Wisconsin's. Iowa's offense is going to improve. We're also missing Kyler Schott, a top 10 guard of the nation. We are breaking in several new offensive linemen.

Mason Richman, Nick DeJong, Jack Plum's out there. Connor Colby's playing. Cody Ince is still working. He hasn't had a ton of snaps. Justin Britt. All these guys are new in the rotation. It will take some time. And we went up against two of the tougher tests we have, and we passed.

Now let's get into some of those snap counts though pass blocking wise against iowa state connor colby had a fantastic day true freshman graded out at 82.4 tyler linderbaum behind him at 68.5 and cody ints at 66.6 people who struggled mason richmond 21.6 he played every single snap the left tackle position that to me says he is locked in there they like what what they are seeing, but he did struggle. He is going to improve. Nick DeJong had a 40.3. He also struggled. Again, this defensive line for Iowa State is good. Jack Plum had a 23. Didn't play that many snaps, but there was one sack in particular

and just blew right around him, taking him down. Anyone who's listened to the show knows I have not been a big fan of Jack Plum's play. Against Indiana, he got him for nine snaps, allowed one pressure. Against Iowa State, gets him for eight or nine snaps, allows a sack. He is not showing it on the field. He is not putting what he's doing off the field and practice into the game. He is struggling in the game,

and that's why we're not going to see Jack Plum going forward as much, in my personal opinion. They're still figuring out this line, but Jack Plum is not doing himself any favors. Now Nick DeJong, again, Mason Richmond, they struggled as well. DeJong allowed four pressures. Richmond allowed three.

A lot of work to be done here. DeJong, again, Mason Richmond, they struggled as well. DeJong allowed four pressures. Richmond allowed three. A lot of work to be done here. Spencer is getting some time, though. 2.99 seconds to throw against Iowa State. The problem is the wide receivers are not going out and creating separation consistently. That's why we're not getting them the ball. Also, Spencer has not found a lot of success throwing past the hashes. Just in the center of the field is where he's found a lot of his success. And he's been trying to really get into Sam LaPorta, who's also been struggling or struggled against Iowa State.

Iowa's wide receiver is 88th in receiving grade. That's not good. That's bottom third material. Receiving grade accounts for your routes ran. If you created separation, were you open? It basically takes out the factor of whether or not you caught the ball. It's just, was your route a good route, and did you actually make separation? About the easiest way to say, they didn't. Also, Iowa State, 26th in the nation in coverage grade. So that is a strong opponent. And again, going back to pass blocking and how bad Iowa has been, 11th worst pass blocking

grade in the nation at 34.3. The 10 teams in front of them have only 5 wins combined. That's not good. The fact that Iowa took down 2 top 25 teams with a pass blocking grade that terrible and a quarterback who cannot move at all. Spencer Petras, he's a freaking stick back there, a tree. Nate Stanley was not a very mobile guy, but he was able to get out of the pocket and run if he needed to. Spencer Petras, I did like what I saw from him. He tried running a couple times, which is more than we saw last year, but nevertheless, he still struggles

with his pocket presence, still struggles with knowing when to step up and when to scramble. And when he does scramble, he doesn't really have a plan. Heck, one of the plays he ran right to Tyler Linderbaum, Tyler Linderbaum grabs him and says, we're going this way, buddy. So, again, a lot to improve here. Looking at the receiving grade, Tyrone Tracy, Nico Reganey, not good. Tyrone graded out a 53.2, Nico a 52.7. We didn't see Arlen Bruce or Keegan Johnson in receiving

snaps. Jackson Ritter did get six receiving snaps, so that's kind of interesting to see how that depth chart's playing out. They did get some snaps, but just not in a passing down. Keegan Johnson getting six. Arlen Bruce getting two. Sam Laporta, a 51.7 receiving grade. This is supposed to be our all-Big

Ten tight end. Six targets, only one reception and one drop. Again, we're not doing Spencer Petras any favors. Coming up on segment two, or segment three, excuse me, I want to get into Spencer Petras a little bit more and talk a little bit about why he didn't have as bad of a game as we think he did. And then also talk about Iowa and where they stand at in this Big Ten. Before we do that, though, I want to tell you about BetOnline.ag. They are back and better than ever.

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I want to talk about Spencer Petras. That is an area that people are very concerned about. A couple things. Kirk ain't making a change. If he wanted to make a change, he would make a change. If he really wanted to make a change, he'd make it in these next two weeks especially. Kirk ain't making a change. If he wanted to make a change, he would make a change. If he really wanted to make a change, he'd make it in these next two weeks especially. I don't foresee that happening. Spencer's playing the game the way he's asked to play it. Again, there are things he needs to improve on. I think he's locking into his first read.

He also doesn't have great pocket awareness. Things that you would expect him to have, but he doesn't. However, analytics say he's not doing too bad. Had a 72.3 overall grade. The best on the offense side of the ball. Two drops. Great. If he gets those, his adjusted completion percent is 65%. He was

pressured 10 times. They get sacked 4 times. And especially that first quarter, he needed to take some heat off it. He gets so antsy in the first quarter. He needed to take some heat off it. He gets so antsy in the first quarter. Second quarter, though, if we can get the play we got in the second quarter for Spencer Petras throughout the entirety of a game, this offense is going to be awesome to watch.

Again, the improvement areas, needs to feel the pressure better. He's being very cautious, almost too cautious. He can't get off his first read, but a beautiful throw to Charlie Jones. Take some, win some, lose some. Let's get into it, though. Iowa, the AP poll came out, ranked fifth in the nation, which is awesome. Love the notoriety and the recognition that Iowa's getting. As Iowa fans, we do need to be rooting for the success of Iowa State and Indiana. Them doing well makes Iowa's wins look even better. Now the fact they're already up to fifth is going to be good regardless as long as they can win out.

But still, Iowa State doing well, Indiana doing well, that looks good for Iowa now that they have beat them. I expect them to go 4-0 getting into that Maryland game. There's a very good chance they are 5-0 going into a game against a ranked Penn State team, top 10 ranked Penn State at Connecticut. How fun would that be? Apologies there. Had to take a quick cough break. Didn't want y'all to hear that, so I muted myself. Apologies there. Had to take a quick cough break.

Didn't want you all to hear that, so I muted myself. But again, with Oregon beating Ohio State, I was now the frontrunner in the Big Ten Conference. Ohio State's going to be good. Once they figure out the quarterback play, they're going to be a lot better. TJ Stroud has been inconsistent. He's putting up good numbers, but has been inconsistent. Ohio State's defense has been not good.

And I do expect Ohio State to improve, but there are weaknesses with this team. You look at the rest of the conference, we don't really know what to expect from them. Michigan beats a not a really great Washington team. Indiana beats a bad Idaho team. Maryland beats Howard. Wisconsin beats Eastern Michigan. Nebraska beats Buffalo. Okay.

Penn State beats Ball State. Purdue beats UConn. Rutgers beats Syracuse barely.. Nebraska beats Buffalo. Okay. Penn State beats Ball State. Purdue beats UConn. Rutgers beats Syracuse barely. Minnesota barely beats Miami. Michigan State beats Youngstown State. And Northwestern beats Indiana State. Illinois falls to Virginia. We didn't learn a lot this weekend from the Big Ten, except for the fact that Ohio State is not the same Ohio State as we have

expected in the past. And Iowa is a team to be reckoned with. Now, they have some really tough games in their schedule. This is not going to be a cakewalk, but if their defense can play the way they've been playing and their offense can just be marginally better, get to average, this is a team that a lot of people are starting to recognize as a team that will be potentially a college ball playoff contender.

We are two games in, and people are talking about the college ball playoffs for the Iowa Hawkeyes. That's all we can ask for at this point. We've got to go out and take care of business. We've got to take care of business against a Kent State team and a Colorado State team. Get to Maryland. Again, take care of business on the road against a not very good Big Ten team,

and you get Penn State at home. The scariest game, Wisconsin on the road. But at this point, Iowa is in the driver's seat. This is not like 2015 where Iowa was struggling to get recognition, struggling to get any sort of care in the world from national media. They got it. They are here. They are on the map, and all they have to do is take care of business

from here on out, and I'm excited about that. This offensive line needs to improve. Spencer Petras needs to make some better decisions. But overall, there's a lot to like from Iowa at this point in the season, now having two cupcake games. Now that they have survived the two tough games and actually thrived and crushed those teams, they now get two cupcake games. No team has had a harder start to the season other than Iowa.

Let's get those two cupcake games. No team has had a harder start to the season other than Iowa. Let's get those two Cupcake games. Let's get some Ws. And it's going to be a lot of fun to talk about this Iowa football team all season. We will be back tomorrow. We'll be breaking down what Kirk Ferentz has to say in his media conference, talking a little bit more about basketball, Josh Dix committing, what does that mean for the Iowa basketball team, and who could possibly be next.

We'll be talking about all that on the show tomorrow and maybe give you something special. We'll talk about some more stuff as well. But'll be talking about all that on the show tomorrow and maybe give you something special. We'll talk about some more stuff as well, but those are me, the two highlights of the show tomorrow. Again, if you haven't listened to our breakdown with Sean Daniels,

please make sure to do that as well. And you can follow us on YouTube and wherever you get your podcast at, make sure to subscribe. If you are liking the show, let me know, give us that five star review. Give us that thumbs up on, on YouTube,

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favorite picks, and Lee Sterling's lock of the day. Follow the Locked On Bets podcast brought to you by betonline.ag, wherever you get your podcast at. And that will do it for our show today Hawkeye Nation I appreciate you tuning in have a phenomenal Tuesday an even better week we'll be back tomorrow and let's go Hawks