Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Iowa's path to NCAA Tournament | TJ Hockenson declares | Why Iowa should beat Penn State

Episode Date: January 15, 2019

What does Iowa need to do to make the NCAA tournament this season? Find out that plus our thoughts on TJ Hockenson's declaration and what that mean's for next year's tight end position. We will also discuss how four early declarations can help Iowa's future recruiting ability and we wrap up by giving our run down of the men's basketball teams matchup vs Penn State tomorrow evening. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to another episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast, the latest addition to the Locked On Sports Network's growing lineup of college podcasts. I am your host, Andrew Wade, editor over at DearOldGold.com, where you can find analysis pieces on all things black and yellow, and we have another awesome episode coming your way today. On segment number one, we're going to be talking about the men's basketball team's path to the NCAA tournament, what they need to do to break their two-year streak of not making it. On segment number two, we're going to be talking about T.J. Hawkinson declaring for the NFL Draft and what that means for the Iowa Hawkeyes going forward. And then finally, on segment number three, we're going to be talking about the Iowa versus Penn State game that takes place tomorrow evening. Before we jump in, though, make sure you are taking a moment to subscribe to our podcast

on iTunes, Stitcher, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast at. And if you have a smart speaker at home, all you need to do to listen to the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast is to tell Siri, Google, or Alexa to play podcast Locked On Hawkeyes. It's that easy to get the latest episode of one of the newest additions to the Locked On Sports Network. Let's jump right into it though. The men's basketball team just checked in at number 23 yesterday. We kind of expected they were going to be in the top 25 after going on a three-game winning streak beating Nebraska, Northwestern, and Ohio State, keeping in mind that Nebraska was ranked when Iowa beat them. Ohio State was ranked when they beat them.

And that'll be kind of the theme of the Iowa basketball season this year. I mean, we're going to see them drop in and out of the top 25, I expect, most of the season, unless they're able to string together a few real big wins against Michigan State and Michigan and Indiana. So unless that happens, I expect them to kind of keep jumping back in and out. And that's kind of what we're going to see from the rest of the Big Ten is that the conference is going to continue to cannibalize itself. There's so many talented and strong teams that it's tough to win on any given night. But also that strength allows Iowa, gives them a little bit of flexibility and comfort in knowing that they have a better chance of making the NCAA tournament if they can do and take care of the basic business they need to.

Sitting at 14-3 right now, they have 12 games remaining before the season is concluded, before they go into the Big Ten tournament, which obviously will help them if they can go on a run there as well, or if they win the Big Ten tournament, they'll be automatically qualified for the NCAA tournament. But let's look at the more realistic picture. Michigan looks real good. I don't doubt that they're going to be the favorite to be the Big Ten champions or Michigan State. So what can Iowa do to be an at-large bid? With Penn State coming up tomorrow, with Illinois

on the horizon in a couple of days, we're possibly looking at a 16-3 Iowa team. They are going to be favored in those two games. I fully expect them to win. So let's say 16-3. Looking at last year's NCAA tournament, there was one team that made it as an at-large team with 18 wins. That was 10th seeded Oklahoma. There were two 19-win teams that were at-large teams, 9th seeded Alabama and 10th seeded Texas. And there were 7 teams that had 20 wins. So when we're looking at that, I would say most teams aren't going to make it with 18 wins. Most teams aren't going to make it with 19. You need to play in a strong conference or have strong wins.

And I think Iowa at least fits that bill with the Big Ten Conference. They have a chance if they get 18 or 19 to squeeze in, but really where they want to be at is that 20-win threshold, meaning they'll need to win at least six games the rest of the season to make it to the NCAA tournament, meaning they have to go 500 over the course of the season. And looking at their schedule, I see a good possibility that can happen. They should be favored in at least seven games and as many as nine of the remaining 14. The games I'm thinking they could be favored in is at Penn State versus

Illinois, at Minnesota versus Northwestern versus Rutgers versus Maryland versus Indiana at Ohio State and at Rutgers. So those are nine games. If they can win six of those, that puts them at the 20 win mark. If they lose more than that, they'll need to get a big win against a team like Michigan State or Michigan at home or even on the road versus Wisconsin or versus Indiana. So I think if they can take care of business there, that could be huge for them. Heck, if they win those nine games, that puts them at 23 wins.

They're guaranteed to be in as an at-large team at that point. So there's a really easy path for them to make it to the NCAA tournament. It's just a matter of them taking care of business. Obviously going to be a little difficult with Tyler Cook potentially being out. The reports are that he's listed as a starter right now, but we'll see how that goes. I'm thinking he'll likely be a game-time decision. As it stands, according to ESPN's bracketology expert Joe Linardi, the Hawks are in line for now to be an eighth seed in the South Division.

Keeping in mind, that was actually before Iowa beat Ohio State. So the more wins they can accrue, the higher up they're going to get, the easier of a first game they're going to get. Keeping in mind also that no game in the NCAA tournament is easy. But with Iowa's renewed vigorance in defense, there's a chance that they could possibly, you know, they have the ability to go farther than they have in the past. So really good possibility, really exciting to see Iowa kind of take that next step forward

and with how much young talent they have on the team, potentially be able to stay there for a little while. But that'll do it for our segment number one, just covering what the Hawks can do to make it to the NCAA tournament. Reminder that on segment number two, we're going to be talking about TJ Hawkinson's declaration for the NFL draft and what that means for Iowa. But before we talk about that, I have a message for you, the listener. Because if you're like me, you hate to miss your favorite team play,

regardless of who they are playing. And that's where Sling TV comes in. Now I never have to miss a football or a basketball game. And the best part is I no longer have to pay for a bunch of channels I don't even watch with a typical cable package. For just $30 a month, you get access to ESPN, the Big Ten Network, and more without the hassle of a long-term contract. What's even more exciting is that we have a fantastic offer for you. Locked On listeners can get a free seven-day trial by going to sling.com

slash locked on. That's S-L-I-N-G dot com slash locked on. Never miss a game again with Sling TV. All right, we are back with segment number two. We're going to be talking about TJ Hawkinson's declaration for the NFL draft. And then we're going to be covering on segment number three, the preview of Iowa versus Penn State. So, obviously, as you probably know by now, TJ Hawkinson did declare for the NFL draft. We're starting to get kind of worried. I mean, he wasn't letting us know. He wasn't't saying anything on Twitter he didn't reactivate his Twitter yet there were some reports that he was working out in training but it sounded like you know he had

a pretty good idea what he was going to do but then he took you know 13 days since the Outback Bowl to make that decision so I think it was a really tough decision for him and he he was really struggling with what he should do you know go with what was right in his heart versus what was right in his head ultimately he chose to make that decision to go with what was right in his head and that is taking the money when you have to so I don't blame him for doing that it's going to be a tough blow for the Iowa football program but fortunately there's some guys waiting in the wings we talked about this a few weeks ago about what they could do for the tight end position and there's three guys that are kind of really in line right now to take that starting tight end position.

You have Sean Byer, who's been dealing with injuries, was out most of the season this year. He's really the next guy up, in my personal opinion, just because of what he adds offensively. Nate Whiting was the number two guy during the Outback Bowl, but he's more of a blocker, former walk-on, has only had two catches. So I don't foresee him being that offensive threat that Iowa likes to have in the passing game when it comes to tight ends.

And that's where Sean Beyer comes in. He was a wide receiver, athlete, mold kind of coming into Iowa, moved to tight end, obviously dealt with the injuries, but he really gives you that athletic presence that Iowa needs at the tight end position. And then you also have Drew Cook. Drew Cook, the son of Marv Cook, spent a full year needs at the tight end position. And then you also have Drew Cook. Drew Cook, the son of Marv Cook, spent a full year working at the tight end position. We haven't had a chance to see what he brings to the tight end position, but he was a great

athlete in high school, rushed for over 1,000 yards. It was kind of a foregone conclusion that he would eventually move to tight end just because of the crowdedness at quarterback. So fantastic to see him move there. Hopefully, maybe he can be a breakout player, kind of like TJ Hawkinson was this year. I mean, we knew what Hawkinson can do based off his redshirt freshman year, but I don't think anyone anticipated him winning a John Mackey award and

being an all American. So maybe that's something that Drew Cook could do. There's also, you know, some walk-on players that had some other good opportunities at FCS programs that decided to come. We also have three, three-star recruits that are coming into the program now. So a lot of talent coming in. Going to be young. It's going to be a work in progress. I think from an offensive perspective, the thing that Iowa has going for is that they have two receivers who can really fulfill expectations or kind of fill that void or that gap in offensive production. And that is

Amir Smith-Marset, the burner, and Brandon Smith, more of a kind of a go-up-and-get-it jump ball type of guy, Cortland Sutton-esque in my opinion. So Iowa does have talent that they can utilize for Nate Stanley. And obviously having a senior quarterback always helps, regardless of who's playing the position. They can always improve. You know, a good quarterback can improve the players around him,

and I fully expect Stanley in his third year of starting can do that. What it means, though, for the Hawks, I talked to a few people about this. With four guys declaring for the NFL Draft, looking back, that's the most in the entire history of the Iowa football program, especially under Kirk Ferentz. Four guys declaring as underclassmen is a big deal. You typically see that from the Alabamas, the Ohio States, those top 10 programs who are getting those five-star recruits every single year. You don't really see it from Iowa as much. I mean, I'm pretty sure the most they've had before this was two. And they even did that last year with Josh Jackson and James Daniels. So it'll be interesting to see how that impacts recruiting personally. I think it's going to be huge.

I think Iowa is, you know, it's going to be a blow this year, but it's going to help them with recruiting. Keeping in mind that Iowa has a certain type of guy they like to get. They like to get those hard workers, those guys who are willing to go in and put the hours in and aren't afraid of a little competition. They aren't afraid of having to work harder and fix the things they're bad at, but maybe they'll be able to get a few more of those four-star guys that are like that. The AJ Epinesa types, the stud athlete who has a fantastic work ethic and can really be that fantastic player in the Iowa football program. And speaking of Epinesa, he is likely to be the same type of person next year where he is going to be declaring early because what could this guy accomplish more? He is so incredible. People already are predicting as him as a top 15 pick

next year in the NFL draft. So stay on the lookout for that. But I think overall, just it really helps the Iowa football program, puts them on a map when you have four guys declaring for the NFL draft early, especially if they go early, right? With Vant going early, Hawkinson going early, that really looks good from a tight end perspective. Having Imani Hooker be another great defensive back in the long line of defensive backs that have been stellar under Kirk Ferentz, that'll be huge. And then Anthony Nelson just getting a little bit more vision to how well Iowa does on the

defensive line. They've sent a number of guys to the NFL on the defensive line, a few of them still playing like Adrian Claiborne right now. So really, really exciting stuff, I think, for the Iowa football program. We may see a little bit of, you know, it might be a little bit worse next year, losing those four guys, but I still think Iowa has the talent to make a run, especially in a wide open, you know, Big Ten West division. And then in the future years, you're going to see them start getting,

hopefully, a few more bigger-time recruits to have that work ethic that can allow them to stick with the Iowa football program. So really fun stuff there. That'll do it though for segment number two. Reminder that on segment number three, we're going to be talking about Iowa versus Penn State and what Iowa needs to do to win that matchup tomorrow night when they travel to Pennsylvania. But before we do that, we have a few messages from our sponsors, so stay tuned for that. Alright, we are back for segment number three, where we're going to be talking about the Iowa vs. Penn State game. It should be a good game. Anytime you go on the road in college basketball, it can always be tough. That being said, Penn State is arguably the worst team in the Big Ten.

So hopefully with Tyler Cook kind of dealing with an injury, Iowa can secure a much-needed easy win. The big thing I think people need to realize is that these games against the weaker teams are really important because Iowa needs to take care of business in the weaker games. That way it's not as crucial to win those do-or-die matchups against a Michigan or a Michigan State where it's borderline impossible, right? So that'll be huge for Iowa to get a big win there if they can. Penn State is coming in.

They are 7-10, and they're the worst offensive team in the Big Ten, which bodes well for an Iowa basketball team that's really come on strong defensively as of late. They've been doing a really good job of stopping teams. And actually, letting Wisconsin, not Wisconsin, having Northwestern and Ohio State score 62 and 63 points respectively, that was the two lowest scoring outputs by a Big Ten opponent against Iowa since March of 2017. So Iowa's doing really well defensively.

You've seen them play with more energy, more engaged, more focused defense, and that'll be really crucial against Penn State to hold them again to their poor shooting standards that they've kind of held to. Right now they're averaging 67.2 points per game, which is a conference worst, and they're averaging 40% shooting from the field, which is also a conference worst. That all being said, Ken Palm isn't exactly the, you know, they're not a huge fan of Penn State, but they're not hating on them. They have Penn State actually ranked as the 61st team overall out of 353 teams.

A lot of that has to do with the fact that, you know, despite Penn State having 10 losses, six of those have come to teams that have been ranked or are ranked right now. So they have some pretty quality losses. They also have some pretty bad losses, but that's neither here nor there. From an offensive standpoint, Penn State's led by 6'8 senior forward Lamar Stevens. He currently leads the team in scoring with 18.6 points per game. He's also averaging 8 boards per game. That'll be a great matchup if Tyler Cook's available.

Otherwise, you're probably going to see Ryan Creener and Nick Byer kind of rotating off of him. There's two guards behind him. Rasier Bolton, a 6'2 freshman, and Josh Reeves, a 6'4 senior. They're averaging 11.8 points per game and 10.2 points per game. And while Stevens is really the leading scorer,

Reeves is the guy I'd be really worried about from an Iowa perspective. He's kind of a jack-of-all-trades. He's averaging double-digit scoring. He's also pulling down 4.8 rebounds per game. He's dishing out 3.5 assists per game. And he's leading the entire Big Ten in 2.6 steals per game, which will be tough for Jordan Bohan and Connor McCaffrey. They'll need to be really cognizant of keeping the ball in their hands, not turning it over on, you know, against Penn State's primarily man-to-man defense.

The nice thing though, while the man-to-man defense allows Penn State to be a little bit more efficient and effective when it comes to steals, they aren't very good at, you know, not getting into foul trouble. So as it stands right now, they are 152nd in the nation in personal fouls per game. As we know, as you know, if you've watched any Iowa basketball games, Iowa is fantastic at drawing fouls. They are one of the most effective teams in the nation. A large portion of their scoring comes from fouls. So it'll be really crucial that they keep up that pressure, keep driving. Luka Garza, keep backing down those guys down low and putting those guys into tough situations. Against Ohio State, they had a couple guys that were close to fouling out

and one guy that did foul out. So it puts a lot of pressure on the coaching staff. And while some coaches aren't as susceptible to letting foul trouble impact the way they rotate guys in and out, Pat Chambers, Penn State's head coach, actually is. There's a metric that when a player gets two fouls, how much do they play compared to what they were playing before? And when you look at that metric,

Penn State is 253rd in the nation for playing guys with two or more fouls. That means they're significantly reducing the minutes of those players as soon as they start getting into that foul trouble territory that puts them at risk of getting out of the game. So that'll be a really big thing for Fran McCaffrey's team is to put that pressure on them continuously. With Cook likely out too, and again, we don't know for sure.

Some conflicting reports, haven't heard much on his ankle. Obviously, if he's back, you know Fran McCaffrey really thinks he's okay and his ankle's not injured, but if he's not, Fran is likely taking itrey really thinks he's okay and his ankle's not injured. But if he's not, Fran is likely taking it slow and doesn't want to ruin anything at this point, especially with some key games coming up. If he sits out, though, that means we're going to need some big minutes from Luka Garza on the offensive side of the ball.

And again, we're going to need Nick Beyer to be that jack-of-all-trades, playing strong defense against Penn State's forward Lamar Stevens. And then finally, Jordan Bohannon and Connor McCaffrey are going to need to have some big games. Bohannon this last game went over 1,000 points, but his scoring has been real off this entire season. He had a one good game two games ago against Northwestern putting in 24 or 25 points.

I can't remember off the top of my head, and that'll be really key. If Tyler Cooks out, we get someone who can put the ball in the basket at a consistent rate, whether that's him or Isaiah Moss, that'll be huge to have that guard play put that pressure on Penn State's defense as well. The game will actually be tomorrow night, 6 p.m. Central Standard

Time. It'll be taking place at Bryce Jordan Center. You can also follow us on Twitter at LockedOnIowa. We'll be giving updates before the game on to spreads, that kind of thing. So really, like I said, a key game, as we talked about on segment number one, Iowa has a pretty clear path to the NCAA tournament,

but it means winning games like this one against Penn State. So make sure you're tuning in tomorrow night on the Big Ten Network for tomorrow night's game against Penn State. And that will actually do it for our show today. We will not be having a show tomorrow morning, but we will have a show coming at you Friday morning, sorry, Thursday afternoon, Friday morning,

and likely Saturday morning. Have a few personal things I need to take care of that will not allow me to put out an episode for you all Wednesday morning. So my apologies for that, but we'll be back in action on Thursday. Again, I'm your host, Andrew Wade. You can find me on Twitter at Wade underscore Andrew,

and you can follow all the exciting happenings of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast on Twitter at LockedOnIowa. Make sure you also subscribe to our podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, or Spotify, or really wherever you get your podcast at. And please leave us a review. You can also reach out to me with questions,

comments, or suggestions at LockedOnHawkeyes at gmail.com. There's really no excuse for letting me know exactly how you feel about the podcast and the show and what you would like to see coming forward. Also, lastly, if you have a smart speaker, just know that you can easily listen to the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast by saying, Siri, Google, or Alexa, play podcast Locked On Hawkeyes. It's that easy. There's no excuses. Again, thank you for joining us on the Locked on Hawkeyes. It's that easy. There's no excuses. Again, thank you for joining us on the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast.

Have a fantastic day, Hawkeye Nation, and we'll be back tomorrow.