Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Predicting Iowa football's chances of winning the Big Ten plus an early 2022 NFL Draft look

Episode Date: June 7, 2021

The media is high on the 2021 Iowa football team, but is it legitimate? Can this team win the Big Ten West or even the Big Ten? We discuss what it would take and what could go wrong before breaking down some of the early lines for the season. We wrap up with a 2022 early NFL Draft preview. Could there be another breakout Iowa Hawkeye that enters the draft that we don't expect?Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.StatHeroStatHero, the FIRST Ever Daily Fantasy Sportsbook that gives the PLAYER the ADVANTAGE. Go to StatHero.com/LockedOn for 300% back on your first play. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back, Hawkeye Nation, to a Monday morning episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes Podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Sports Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade, and today's episode is brought to you by rockauto.com. Amazing selection, reliably low prices, all the parts your car will ever need. Visit rockauto.com and tell them Lockdown sent you. And on today's show, we got an action-packed episode.

We are breaking down the season expectations for the Iowa Hawkeyes. There has been a lot of hype building as of recently from several sources. So we'll talk about the Iowa Hawkeyes' chance to win the Big Ten and ultimately have a successful season. We're also going to talk about the odds for Iowa games. Several odds have been released. And I'll be honest, they're a bit shocking to me. So we're going to talk about that.

And then we're going to wrap up the show with an early 2022 NFL Draft preview. Mel Kuyper had a list of top 10 by position. Several Iowa Hawkeyes were on there. I think he got a few right. I think he got a few wrong. And I want to talk about possible early entrance and who could blow up like Davian Nixon did last year. So we're going to talk about all that on the show today. Before we get into any of that, I want to quickly cover a few small tidbits. The biggest one that came out of this weekend was the Iowa Hawkeyes offered the youngest Epineza brother, the Epineza son, I should say, a scholarship.

Class of 2025, Yosei Epineza, expected to be, in my opinion, probably a high four-star or a five-star recruit, absolutely dominating the recruiting circuit so early on. Iowa also extended offers to several other prospects as well. Like I said on our show last week, I believe that recruiting is about to pick up significantly. The dead period's over. People are getting on campus. Plus, June is generally a pretty busy month from a commitment standpoint. So expect Iowa to obtain anywhere between seven and 12 commitments over the next month, month and a half. That's kind of my thoughts there. But that being said, let's get into the show.

Again, I appreciate you all tuning in. I appreciate everyone listening. And just as a reminder, we are doing episodes Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. We're on the off-season schedule, so we're going to give you content every Monday, Wednesday, Friday. If something big happens, we'll be breaking that down in a special episode Tuesday or Thursday. But until now, Monday, Wednesday, Friday. So season expectations. This was really interesting to me.

Pro Football Focus gave Iowa the second best chance to win the Big Ten. Pro Football Focus also has Iowa ranked in the top 10. That is not the only side I've seen Iowa ranked in the top 10 or the top 15. Now, when you look at BetOnline.ag, they have the odds of Iowa in terms of winning games at 8.5. BetOnline.ag also has Iowa as the fourth best odds to win the Big Ten at plus 1100. So, which one's right? I mean, to be honest, we don't know, right? But I will say I'm a bit shocked to see the love Iowa is getting this early on in the season. Now, when you look at last year's season, they are realistically, I mean, one or two plays away from 8-0 and playing in a big-time bowl game.

That's how close they were last year. They were unable to close it out versus Purdue or Northwestern, which is forever going to haunt Iowa fans, I feel like, because we could have had an even more amazing season. And we did that in spite of Spencer Petras' quarterback play for most of the season. And again, this is not me ragging on Spencer. That's just the facts of the matter. They come into this season, though, and you've got to factor in what they lost. I think I struggle a little bit with giving the... I struggle a little bit with giving the,

either one or two things. Either analysts right now are devaluing the loss of Iowa's previous assets, previous players, right? Assets, I'm in an accounting class in my MBA program, so assets is what I initially think of, but players. Or they are really starting to hone in on what Kirk Ferentz and that coaching staff can do from a developmental perspective. Iowa loses multiple offensive linemen. Three.

Three offensive linemen. Four, actually, if you count Mark Kallenberger. But three starters. They lose both their starting wide receivers. They lose their number two tight end, they lose their defensive line again, most of them, right? So that is always going to be an issue. But I think what we're seeing is analysts are starting to realize

Iowa does a fantastic job of reloading on the defensive line. They do a fantastic job of reloading on the defensive line. They do a fantastic job of reloading on the offensive line. And they've been recruiting very well the last couple of years, getting a lot of high four-star recruits coming in to play that offensive line spot. And then wide receiver, I mean, I've talked about this wide receiver group can be very special despite losing an Amir Marcet and a Brandon Smith. So to me, that does become a bit interesting. Do I think they have the second best chance of winning the Big Ten? I struggle with that. I do believe they can

get over eight and a half wins, but again, it all starts in those first two weeks. You have to be Indiana. You have to beat Iowa State. You do that, you'll definitely top the eight and a half wins. I don't see a lot of losses on this schedule Iowa does have a relatively favorable schedule down the stretch in my opinion and I'm talking about home games I'm talking about where the games lie at in the schedule the only thing I would say and this is you know I'm going to talk a lot about trends today especially when we get into the odds for Iowa games but in the past 10-15 years it seems like the perception is when Iowa is favored high they don't do as well look at 2010 look at 2016 they just struggle a little bit in that first

those first two games are going to be very tough and could really dictate the success of the season so that to me is very interesting in my my opinion, though, is this accurate? I think there's a little bit, you know, there's accuracy to both. I think there's a very good chance Iowa could be in the Big Ten championship game. I think overall they might be more talented than Wisconsin. They've gotten some of those monkeys off their back the last year in beating Wisconsin and Penn State. They finally got that done.

They also do have a very talented team, especially defensively. The back two units are phenomenal, and I think the defensive line will be above average. I don't think it's going to be as strong as it has been the last couple years, but I think it's going to be pretty darn good. Good enough to allow that linebacker group and secondary to play outstanding lights out defense. And again, that secondary I truly think is one of the top three in the country. So what could go wrong for this? I think you lose those first two games. You lose those first two games, and I think we're looking at a 7-5 Iowa Hawkeye team.

You win those first two games or heck, even split those first two games, and I think we could be above eight wins, above nine wins. Now, what this all relies on, I think, is improved quarterback play from Spencer Petras. I believe the lineman group will be fine on both sides of the ball. I think the defensive line especially, some of those guys we've been hearing about for years. John Wagner is a guy who we've known about for a very long time. We've been waiting on him to break out. Zach Van Valkenburg is all Big Ten.

You've got Noah Shannon in there, potentially Y.A. Black, and then Joe Evans. There's a lot of potential on the defensive line. I expect them to meet that potential. Now, granted, they are trying to continue to get some people from the transfer portal, so clearly they have some concerns, but I do think the defensive line will be fine. It really comes down to quarterback play. Can Spencer Petras improve? We saw some really good things down the stretch. Can he continue to build off of that and be more consistently good

as opposed to having stretches of bad, bad play like we saw this past season? That, to me, is the biggest question mark. But PFF giving Iowa the second-best chance to win the Big Ten, BetOnline.ig giving Iowa the fourth-best chance, I would probably split the difference. What wouldn't surprise me is finishing second in the Big Ten West like they have several times, but with the talent they have on this team, getting to the Big Ten championship game is not out of the picture. They have a lot of draft eligible talent or a lot of guys who will be draft eligible after the season. We're going to talk about that on segment three. That does do it for segment one, though.

On segment two, we're going to actually go through some of those games. Indiana versus Iowa, plus five and a half. Iowa, Iowa State, plus four and a half. How should you bet that if you already have the odds up and you want to make some bets today? We're going to talk about that on segment two of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. Before we get into that, though, I want to tell you about one of our sponsors of

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Amazing selection, reliably low prices, all the parts your car will ever need. Visit rockauto.com. And now let's get into segment two of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. We want to talk about some odds, some odds that were out for the Iowa Hawkeye football team. I'm going to go through some of the big ones. Indiana, plus 5.5 at Iowa. Iowa, plus 4.5 at Iowa State. Penn State, plus 3.5 at Iowa.

Purdue, plus 14.5 at Iowa. Iowa, minus 10.5 at Northwestern. Illinois, plus 21.5 at Iowa. Iowa, minus 6.5 at Nebraska. These are some pretty aggressive odds. Obviously, every week before these games, we're going to be giving you the betting breakdown. We're going to be talking a lot about how you should bet these games, what to look for, and giving you a more in-depth look. But if you're looking to put your hands on some odds today, here's how I would do it.

Let's first and foremost start with Indiana plus five and a half at Iowa. This bet that I'm going to make on this is entirely based off the fact that I think Kinnick is going to be one of the loudest we've ever heard Kinnick be. It is a top 25 matchup. It's the home opener. It's the first game that people have been at Kinnick in over a year, over almost two years at that point. People are going to be rocking. And that energy is going to be contagious as long as Spencer Petras can stay calm. I think Iowa's defense, if nothing else, is going to absolutely dominate. Michael Penix Jr., is he recovered?

That will be his first live game action since his injury as well. Penix Jr., is he recovered? That'll be his first live game action since his injury as well. It's always tough to take almost six points against a top 15 team, but I think in this case, he had to do it against Indiana. Now, moving on to Iowa versus Iowa State. Now, I'm probably going to have some unpopular takes moving into this game. I do think Iowa State possibly is more talented than Iowa. This is going to be probably the best Cy Hawk rivalry game we have seen in a lot of our lives. Iowa State, incredibly talented. I do think there's some weaknesses on there. I think the Big 12 is not exactly conducive to highlighting some of the issues that potentially exist within Iowa State.

But I do think they're a very quality team, and I would say evenly matched with Iowa. Their quick passing game at Brock Purdy kind of negates some of what we do from a defensive standpoint. They like to dink and dunk very northwestern when they play Iowa. That's kind of how Iowa State has played Iowa in the past, and it's worked very well. Iowa plus four and a half. I think you have to pound the plus four and a half, not because I think Iowa is going to win, but because in each of the four times Iowa has lost to Iowa State since 2006, the loss was by three or less. These games are typically very close, whether Iowa wins or Iowa State or Iowa blows them out. That is literally

the two options. It's either close game or Iowa blows them out. I don't expect a blowout this year, but I do expect Iowa to keep it very close, if not win the game. Plus four and a half. A little bit too much that Iowa is getting on the road going at Iowa State. At Penn State, or sorry, when Penn State comes to Iowa, they are getting plus three and a half points. Now, I'm not as high on Penn State as other teams or other analysts are. I want to see improved quarterback play. They've lost quite a bit the last couple years. And last year, I just was not impressed by what they brought to the table. I also think the fear factor that has hurt Iowa is gone, right? Not that Iowa was scared of Penn State, but they always had someone dynamic on that offense that just ruined Iowa, right? It was Saquon

Barkley. It was Miles Sanders. It was um gosh I'm forgetting uh the quarterback's name right now um KJ Hamler it was those kind of guys that hurt Iowa significantly now they don't right now Penn State doesn't really have a guy like that in my personal opinion I don't believe I mean Sean Clifford's pretty solid, but I did not like what he was able to do. He just wasn't overly impressive, in my opinion, to me. Now, he can run the ball, and that was a bit worrisome, but he's not Trace McSorley, and that was the quarterback I was forgetting.

So at this point, I would probably take Iowa with the minus 3.5. That being said, I'm probably holding off on this game until the season starts, hoping that it gets inflated or deflated either way, and then picking up on that. But yeah, I'm not gonna bet on that Penn State game. I don't like that line at all right now. Purdue, plus 14 and a half at Iowa. I am taking Purdue all day.

Purdue does such a wonderful job of playing the Iowa Hawkeyes. Honestly, Jeff Brom, I don't know how he does it, but he manages to make Iowa's top 10 ranked defense look bad almost every year. And with one player each time, I honestly don't understand. It is one of the more frustrating games to watch on our schedule year in and year out. I absolutely hate playing Purdue. It just pisses me off every single year. Giving 14 and a half, though, I know they're playing at Iowa, but again, this is a Purdue team that does pretty darn well against the Hawks.

If you look at the last, heck, I'm looking at the schedule right now, there has been one time in the past 13 years where Iowa has won or lost by more than 14 points. That was in 2015 when Iowa went undefeated. I would definitely take Purdue in this game. I think it's going to be a one-touchdown game. I think Iowa should win. Iowa definitely should win, but I think Iowa will win, and I think it's going to be a one-touchdown game. I think Iowa should win. Iowa definitely should win, but I think Iowa will win, and I think it'll be by about a touchdown.

I think Purdue's offense just knows how to rumble against Iowa's defense, regardless of how good it is. I'm taking Purdue in that one. This one's interesting to do. Ten and a half at Northwestern. Iowa's getting ten and a half on the road at Northwestern. Thirteen of the last 20 games have been under ten, including four of the last five, and that one that was not was when Northwestern. 13 of the last 20 games have been under 10, including four of the last five.

And that one that was not was when Northwestern was historically bad and Iowa only won by 20. I'm taking Northwestern in this game. Northwestern is always a thorn in our side. Northwestern, I don't think, I mean, they lost several key players, some good linebackers, some good running backs,

and a top secondary player in Greg Newsome. But I truly believe the Northwestern squad is going to be like they have in the past years six and six seven and five I mean that's a little bit actually lower than what they have been but I think Northwestern will be competitive I'm taking Northwestern in that game Illinois plus 21 and a half at Iowa I don't like it I don't like 21 and a half I also don't know what to expect from Illinois Brett Bulima I would wait on this game 100%. That line will move. We'll get more information as we get closer to that.

And then Iowa, minus 6.5 at Nebraska. Since Scott Frost has taken over, Iowa has not covered that spread yet. It has been very close every year. Iowa is clearly the more talented team, but Nebraska comes in. You've got to give kudos to them. They come out hard. They play very tough against the Iowa Hawkeyes every single year. They might suck in every other game, but against Iowa, they are ready to roll.

At this time, I would probably take Nebraska at that plus six and a half spread. I'm hoping I'm wrong. I would love to see Iowa just blow out Nebraska. But the fact of the matter is, Iowa just those games are so close every year. You just, you got to factor that in, especially the way Scott Frost coaches up that Nebraska team against Iowa and only Iowa. That's how I break down the odds. They'll let me know what your thoughts are.

I would love to hear that. Feel free to Facebook message me, tweet me, or send me a DM on Instagram at any of our locked on Hawkeyes podcast account coming up on a segment three, we're going to get into an early 2022 NFL draft preview. Before we do that though though, you know I got to tell you about one of our other sponsors of the show today. Of course, it is BuiltBar.com, the best tasting protein bar on the market today. Built Bar is the protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. They have so many phenomenal flavors, whether it's salted caramel, raspberry, peanut butter, brownie. They also have some really great limited time flavors like white chocolate birthday cake with sprinkles.

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All right, y'all. We are back for our third and our final segment of the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast today. Again, I appreciate you all tuning in. I appreciate you listening and the support. Again, we will be here every Monday, Wednesday, Friday. We got episodes popping off the next couple of days. We have some fantastic guests lined up as well. So stay tuned for that. I don't like to give you the names until I've actually recorded, but we're in talks with several really awesome guests. You're going to want to

listen to those as well. But recently, the NFL draft is over for 2021, but people are already paying attention to the 2022 draft. And there are several Iowa Hawkeyes that are highlighting some of these lists. Mel Kiper released a top 10 pie position. And I want to first give the caveat, Mel Kiper doesn't really do his own scouting. These are other people that do it for him, almost like ghostwriting. They do some ghost scouting, in my personal opinion. However, he is a guy who does have a solid opinion from his team. And if you're getting on that list

that means you're at least being watched and then what you do with the season is going to be really instrumental so he released a top 25 and also a top 10 by position we saw five Iowa Hawkeyes on that top 10 by position Tyler Goodson checked in at four a halfback Monty Potterbaum nine at fullback Cody Inks at eight at guard. Tyler Linderbaum, number one at center. And Austin Spadewalk, number three at long snapper. A couple things of that. I'm honestly shocked he ranked long snappers. That's amazing. The fact that Cody is on there, I think is really huge and speaks volumes of what we've been hearing about Cody through the spring training period. The fact that he can play all five positions. And I was really excited about his potential.

Tyler Goodson at four. I don't think Tyler Goodson is getting talked about enough. I really truly feel like he's being overshadowed a bit, even by his own in-state counterpart, Brees Hall at Iowa State. Brees Hall is getting a lot of love. I even heard on the PFF two-for-one draft podcast that Brees Hall is their number one ranked tailback.

Now, Tyler Goodson is a little bit smaller. I don't know what he's going to do from a speed perspective. That would be really interesting, right? Because you haven't seen necessarily the huge breakaway speed from Tyler Goodson, but the quickness and athleticism is amazing at the whole. The fact that Iowa went to a, you know, oh my gosh, I'm drawing a blank on it, but the direct snap offense with the running back there, right? That to me speaks volumes about what Tyler Goodson can do and the fact that we're looking at Brian Ferentz and he wants to get Tyler Goodson the

ball no matter what. I think Tyler Goodson could be a top three NFL draft running back by the end of the season. And I truly think we should really enjoy what Tyler Gibson is going to do because I cannot imagine him coming back. If he has a season like I expect him to, he is going to be gone. I think he should be a day two running back pick this upcoming season. That's my personal opinion. But at four, that's awesome. Tyler Linderbaum at one, no surprise there at all.

But a couple of misses from this list. I think Sam Laporta, I don't know how you miss Sam Laporta on that tight end list. Sam Laporta is a guy that even Matt Miller, um, you know, NFL draft scout for ESPN, formerly of bleacher report. He mentioned Sam Laporta as a guy last year. Now, Sam Laporta had a bit of an interesting season, some drops here and there, got the ball forced to him a lot. But overall, I really liked what we saw from Sam Laporta as a true freshman and as a sophomore. And I think he's really going to break out this upcoming season. And I'll get to breakout players here in a second.

But I'm surprised Sam Laporta was not listed as a top 10 prospect. That truly shocked me. I also think Kyler Schott was a guy who I think should have been maybe on that list for guard as well. The PFF guys were truly high on him. Tristan Wirth talked very highly of him in his interview with them. What I've seen from Kyler Schott when he's on the field, that offensive line is significantly better with his presence. Kyler Schott has that kind of presence as a former walk-on. He's going to be a key contributor to this Iowa offensive line. And one of the reasons why I'm not too worried about this

interior offensive line, when you got Schott, when you got Tyler Linderbaum, potentially Cody swinging in if we need to, or Justin Britt, that's a pretty solid interior right there. So I think it's interesting that Kyler Schott was also not on that list. Now out of this whole list, I do want to talk about some possible early entrants. So we've seen a trend with Iowa Hawkeyes recently. We've had several Iowa Hawkeyes going to the NFL before we would typically expect them to. It's definitely changed the way Iowa has had to recruit because before they've been able to keep these guys around for their entire eligibility, but that's not the case anymore. Iowa is developing prospects. They're getting good ones in and developing them even better and they're ready to leave earlier.

Look at Noah Pham. Look at Davian Nixon. You've got to capitalize on your opportunities. Josh Jackson, for example. I mean, heck, in the last four years, we've seen three guys come out of nowhere. Relatively, you know, relative obscurity. And absolutely blow up. Davian Nixon blew up last year.

Hadn't started a game. Becomes a Big Ten defensive player of the year. Two years before that, TJ Hawkinson, number two tight end. And all of a sudden, TJ Hawkinson is the John Mackey award winner. Four years ago, Josh Jackson is a big time player, Big Ten defensive back of the year and gets drafted in the second round. I mean, it also leaves early. Three of the last four years, Iowa's had a guy like that.

So who could be that guy this year? I think it really comes down to four candidates. And I'm going to put them in order of who I think has the best chance of going. I think it's Sam Laporta. I think it's Noah Shannon, Jack Campbell, and Tyron Tracy Jr. Noah Shannon, Jack Campbell, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. Those four guys, I think, have the ability to break out this year into a world that we don't typically see. Sam Laporta, I think, could be a John Mackey award winner this year

if that offense starts humming. I think Tyrone Tracy is a guy who's going to really surprise a lot of people. Now, we don't see a lot of wide receivers even get drafted from Iowa, let alone declare early. So I think it's very unlikely. But I think more so Sam Laporta, Noah Shannon. I did a very, I'll brag here for a second. I called David Nixon the breakout player last year.

I thought what he did on tape the previous year was phenomenal. And I thought he could be a very good player. I'm going to be, I think Noah Shannon is kind of like a mini David Nixon. I know that's been an easy comparison, right? But I truly have been impressed with what Noah Shannon has done on tape in his limited time as well. You got to remember, Phil Parker likes to rotate defensive linemen in and out. We've seen a lot of these guys play some meaningful snaps. I do like what I see from Noah Shannon. So for me, I think the possible early entrants from next year are Sam Laporta, Tyler Linderbaum, and Tyler Goodson and Noah Shannon. For a chance, those are

probably the four possible early entrants in my opinion. As far as breakout players, I think it goes in that order, Sam Laporta, Noah Shannon, Tyrone Tracy, Jack Campbell, in terms of who could really blow up and become the guy who leaves a year earlier than we thought. That is my early and brief 2022 NFL draft preview. Obviously, as we get closer into the season and get into the season, we're going to be talking a lot more about the NFL draft. So we'll get to all that more so in some future episodes. I do appreciate you tuning in today. That is the end of our show.

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