Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Purdue Boilermaker breakdown: Will David Bell burn the Iowa Hawkeyes again; why this Purdue defense isn't as concerning as first thought

Episode Date: October 14, 2021

We dive deep into the Purdue Boilermarker football team on today's show as we analyze what each of their two quarterbacks brings to the table and how this changes the dynamic of the game. We are also looking at the historical performances of Purdue against the Iowa Hawkeyes under Jeff Brohm and how this year could be different. Purdue's leading rusher is out, and Purdue hasn't been effective on the ground, which leads us to the biggest question. How does the Iowa football team stop Purdue? Defensively, Purdue has improved, but if we're being honest, what offenses have they really played to this point. They are one of the nation's top teams in yards allowed, but advanced analytics paint a different picture. Plus, on the line, how much should Iowa fans be worried about George Karlaftis? We break it all down here.Time stamps:- Iowa lands 2022 recruit: 1-3- Purdue QBs and rushing attack: 3-11- Purdue WRs and how Iowa defends: 11-19- Purdue defense and special teams: 19-26Follow & Subscribe to the Locked On Hawkeyes Podcast on these platforms… Apple: https://apple.co/2X8a29HSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3E1FTtBTuneIn: https://bit.ly/3trQeKuStitcher: https://bit.ly/3A6GwjiMegaphone: https://bit.ly/3C0FRAuFollow Locked On Hawkeyes on social media…Twitter: https://twitter.com/LockedOnIowaFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/LockedOnHawkeyes/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lockedoniowa/Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!SweatBlockGet it today for 20% off at SweatBlock.com with promo code LockedOn, or at Amazon and CVS.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.PrizePicksDon’t hesitate, check out PrizePicks.com and use promo code: “LOCKEDON” or go to your app store and download the app today. PrizePicks is daily fantasy made easy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back, Hawkeye Nation, to a Thursday morning episode of the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked on Sports Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade, and I want to thank you for making the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast your first listen every single day. You can find the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast wherever you get podcasts at for free Monday through Friday. We are dropping episodes and also on YouTube for, Monday through Friday. We are dropping episodes.

And also on YouTube for free, Monday through Friday as well, at Locked on Hawkeyes. And you have made it such an amazing week, and we're going to keep it going with today's show as we break down everything you need to know about Purdue coming into this game. In previous years, Purdue was always a big passing team that didn't have a great defense but always game planned very well for Iowa I expect them to game plan well for Iowa again they had a bye week but what have we learned about Purdue this point to the season or this far into the season we know their offense is not the

same offense we've seen we know David Bell is still there and he is likely going to do some damage regardless of how what we do to try to stop him. And defensively, Purdue has actually improved. So we're going to talk about all that on the show today. We also want to talk about the fact that Iowa has another commit in the class of 2022, Caleb Johnson, the former Cal commit. Decommitted from Cal very, very recently and then just committed to Iowa. Three-star running back out of Ohio, a big guy, 6'1", 215 pounds, a top 550 player, 18 offers. It's a good grab by the Hawks, a team that was struggling in the summer to land top recruits.

Guys even like Caleb Johnson committing to other places. They're seeing what's happening in Iowa City, and they want to be a part of it. So not only is this season impacting recruiting, but the recruits we have are impacting recruiting. The environment is impacting recruiting. The fan base. It's all those things combined are making these commits want to be an Iowa Hawkeye and realize there's no better place in the world to be

than to be an Iowa Hawkeye and realize there's no better place in the world to be than to be an Iowa Hawkeye in college football. So very exciting stuff. We're also going to start a new thing here on the YouTube channel. We're going to be breaking down each of the commits in the class of 2022, doing a one to two minute clip, just kind of explaining who they are, what they do, what they bring to the table. So you can view any of that at any time. So be on the lookout for that. Probably starting sometime next week is my guess.

Let's get into it, though. Talking about Purdue, I think it's really important. Every single Thursday we're going to be breaking down what Purdue, what the opposing team, if that's next week, the week after, et cetera, is going to be doing, and it helps us get an idea when we go into our Friday show of what is the game plan for Iowa. So we're going to be talking about all of that today and on tomorrow's show. Purdue coming into this game, though, is 3-2 to this point.

They beat 4-2 Oregon State, 30-21. They beat 0-7 UConn, 49-0. They lost to Notre Dame, 27-13. I had money on Purdue because I thought they were a better team, ultimately losing to Notre Dame, though, later in the game. They beat Illinois, 13-9 and they lost to Minnesota 20-13. To this point, what we know about Purdue is that we're familiar with both

of their quarterbacks, but neither quarterback has separated themselves in Jeff Braum's mind. The issue is Aiden O'Connell is a bit more of a gunslinger. Jack Plummer is a bit more protective with the football. Aiden O'Connell is the kind of guy who can beat you deep. Jack Plummer is the guy who's going to Northwestern you and dink and dunk you. I would equate him more to a Peyton Ramsey-esque type quarterback from Northwestern, a guy who's not going to throw the ball more than 15, 20 yards, but he's deadly between zero and 20. So let's take a look at those quarterbacks because we could see both of them.

We have no idea what's going to happen. Kirk Ferentz is game planning for both quarterbacks to this point. Both have started games even in this season. So like I said, Jack Plummer, a bit more conservative with the football. And when you look at his statistics, it shows that as well. To this point, seven touchdowns, zero interceptions, completing 70.3% of his passes on 118 throws. If you take his adjusted completion percentage, it's 82%. Now, when I say dink and dunk, the reason why I say that is his average depth of target is 5.5 yards. He's only made three big-time throws this entire season. Now just to remind you, a big-time throw is a very, very well-placed ball typically further down the field.

Basically, a ball that quarterbacks aren't going to throw very often. He also has two turnover-worthy plays. So zero interceptions, but two balls that probably could or should have been intercepted. To this point, only eight passes over 20 yards and only 19 over 10. Now let's compare that to Aiden. All right. Aiden O'Connell, four touchdowns, five interceptions, a 65.7% completion percentage on 99 throws. Remember, we talked about Aiden had, or Jack had, three big-time throws and two turnover-worthy plays. Aiden has seven big-time throws and six turnover-worthy plays. His average depth of throw

is 9.5 yards. So again, Jack was 5.5, Aiden is 9.5.5 so four yards deeper and then when you look at where his deep where his balls are going 40 passes over 10 yards compared to 27 by jack plumber and 15 over 20 in less attempts 99 throws compared to jack plumbers's 118. So whatever quarterback we get is really going to change the game plan. Now, this could always change. Jeff Brom could say you're going to attack deep, but ultimately when a quarterback typically comes in and they have that kind of mindset, right, Jack Plummer is going to be that deacon dump kind of guy.

Aiden O'Connell is going to take more chances. You're not going to change the aggressiveness style, the aggressive style of those quarterbacks necessarily. So the way Iowa has been attacked by Purdue in the past is typically by a guy like an Aiden O'Connell, a guy who's not afraid to go over the top. And it's not like Aiden isn't accurate. He's just not afraid to take a few more chances. Where Purdue has beaten Iowa is by taking shots over the top. Now you can look back to the

last two years, they haven't gotten shots over the top as consistently or at all against Iowa. Yet they went one and one. Now I would argue they did that by dinking and dunking, keeping things under the 20-yard threshold. They really targeted David Bell quite a bit, and they ran the ball very well against Iowa. The reason why that doesn't scare me as much is that is a harder game to play against the Hawks. That's what Iowa wants you to do because they feel like at an 8-10 play drive, you are not going to complete 7 to eight passes under 10 yards.

They think you are going to make a mistake at some point. They are counting on it. They are expecting it. And if you can go eight to 10 plays down the field and score a touchdown, good for you at that point. So that's what Iowa wants them to do. Now, what's interesting about Purdue is the fact that out of all teams, they do the best job, in my opinion, of lulling people to sleep in this instance.

They do a good job of calling plays initially to set up plays later. Jeff Rahm is an offensive genius, in my opinion. He does such a good job across the board offensively. Now this year they've struggled, but that doesn't mean they don't have a bag of tricks pulled out for Iowa after a two-week period to prepare for the Hawks. And after, it sounds like, preparing for the Hawks all during the offseason as well, looking at both the offense and the defense and what Iowa brings to the table. Rushing-wise, this is kind of interesting.

So when Purdue beat us last year, they beat us on the backs of Xander Horvath. He's a big-time running back, 6'3", 230 pounds. He dominated us last year. Had a phenomenal game against the Hawks last year. He was the reason why Purdue was able to stay in that game. He wore down the defensive line and opened things up for the passing attack. This year, he's out. He broke his leg. He is more than likely not playing in this upcoming game. And Purdue is one of the worst teams in the nation in rushing the football. 116th in rushing yards per attempt. They're only 103rd in rushing attempts per game. So they're

not trying to run the ball a lot. And when they do, they're not doing very well. Behind Xander, there are some assets. King Durow is averaging 4.6 yards per carry on 48 attempts. And Dylan Downing is averaging 3.8 yards on 35 attempts. So just because Xander's out doesn't mean they don't have people there. What I think we're seeing is that the rushing attack is not as potent, which does help Iowa. If Iowa can stop their rushing attack with just their four defensive linemen, allow the linebackers, allow the secondary to focus on coverage, that will be hugely beneficial for the Hawkeyes to be successful in this game against Purdue, considering the fact that Purdue most often has destroyed Iowa via the passing game, via the deep ball.

So Iowa's going to have to put a lot of attention on the wide receivers, a lot of attention on Dave Bell. We're going to talk about all that here in a few short moments. I do want to tell you, though, about Sweat Block, because Sweat Block has helped me out, especially when I'm sweating out those really, really scary games, Iowa versus Penn State. I didn't want to sweat through my shirt.

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they're going to be big old pit stains everywhere up here. So if you or someone you know is dealing with this, you have to check out Sweat Block. Get it today for 20% off at sweatblock.com with the promo code LOCKEDON, that's L-O-C-K-E-D-O-N, or Amazon and CVS. Now I want to thank you all for making the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast your first listen every single day. Now I want to thank you all for making the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast your first listen every single day. You can find us wherever you get podcasts at and also on YouTube at Lockdown Hawkeyes, Monday through Friday for free. So thank you all for doing that. And thank you for making this literally such an amazing week of growth for the show.

I really appreciate you all spreading the word, commenting on our YouTube channel, giving us those five-star reviews. It truly means a ton to me. So before we take a break, we were talking about Aiden O'Connell versus Jack Plummer, how they can change the dynamic of the game depending on which quarterback is playing. Also the fact that the rushing attack is not as scary this year. And honestly, the whole offense isn't as scary as it has been in the past. To this point, 87th in scoring offense with 23.6 points. That's down from 27.2. Now, points per game doesn't give you the full picture. Purdue is moving the ball.

They just aren't scoring. They're also not the best in terms of turnover margin. 68th in giveaways at 1.4 a game, but 126th in takeaways. So they're losing the turnover battle consistently. From a blocking perspective, they are not doing well from a run blocking perspective. Only one guy graded out above 61.1. That's tackle Greg Long. So, again, when I talk about the fact that to stop Purdue,

you need to shut down the run with four guys. Last year, they couldn't. Iowa had to commit more guys to the box. They had to commit more guys to looking at the running back. Iowa, if they can stop Purdue's running attack with just their four defensive linemen, that will be huge for Iowa to take advantage and capitalize on a passing attack that hasn't been as successful and has been very reliant on David Bell. Pass blocking-wise, they haven't been that bad.

Most guys rated between 61.3 and 74.9 so not too bad all around there they've allowed 51 pressure to this point i think the other thing that we need to know is to this point iowa has played running quarterbacks a lot of scrambling quarterbacks brock purdy michael panics todd sen, Talia Tagovaiola, Sean Clifford, Taquan Robinson when he came in. I'm drawing a blank on Dustin Crum. All those guys running quarterbacks. And who's not a running quarterback?

Jack Plummer and Aiden O'Connell. Jack Plummer has minus 27 rushing yards on the season. Aiden O'Connell has minus 46 rushing yards. Collectively between them, they've been sacked 12 at times, so there's opportunities there to get to the passer. And they are getting the ball up quick, but there's opportunities to get there. But the biggest thing is stopping David Bell. We all know this. Every year that Purdue has played Iowa, a wide receiver has a career day. Back in 2017, it was Anthony Mahogany. Seven catches, 135 yards. Back in 2018, Terry Wright. Six catches, 146 yards, three touchdowns.

David Bell, as a true freshman, 13 catches, 197 yards in 2019. As a true sophomore, 13 catches for 121 yards and three touchdowns. David Bell is the guy to watch out for. But I also want to remind you to watch out for the backups as well. Granted, Purdue is going to be missing one of their wide receivers, but the guy to watch out for, in my opinion, is Milton Wright. To this point, he is second on the team in targets, and also Jackson Anthrop,

third on the team in targets, who is primarily operating out of the slot. So those are the three guys you're going to need to worry about for Purdue. From a tight end perspective, Payne Durham is a guy that has been doing pretty well, fourth on the team in targets to this point, but he is injured. He has been injured. He's trying to get back. He should be back for this game for everything it sounds like from Jeff Brom. Sounds like Payne Durham is going to be back in this game, and that is a tight end, again,

to worry about a little bit. Last year, an honorable mention, all Big Ten. This year, 18 receptions, 209 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. He'll be ready to play as well. But the wide receivers are what scares me the most. I think our linebackers can handle Payne Durham in coverage. We're likely going to be in a 4-2-5 the entire game. It'll be interesting to see how they rotate Jess and Jacobs and Seth Benson in and out there.

But regardless, I have no problem with any of our linebackers covering Payne Durham. The issue is going to be down a corner, down Riley Moss. How do we handle the trio of David Bell, Milton Wright, and Jackson Anthrop? It's important to know what they're going to try to do with each of these guys. David Bell, his average at the target is 11.3 yards. That makes sense given his quarterbacks. Jackson Anthrop, though, operating out of the slot, primarily his depth of target is within that four-yard mark.

So he's getting the ball short. Iowa is not a team that typically presses, but they're also a team that's going to allow Jackson to get those four yards. They're not going to be as concerned about him getting those four yards as long as Iowa is tack attacking the football immediately. Iowa primarily plays zone. I could see them doing some man concepts here and having a safety bracket David Bell over top, making sure he can't go deep, making sure he's not getting open looks easily.

And then what would be really interesting to see is if Phil Parker actually slides corners specifically to Dave Bell, to Matt Hankins putting him on Dave Bell and saying, here's your challenge, go and get it. That's not Phil Parker style, but I think when you have a cornerback like Matt Hankins and you're missing your starting cornerback in Riley Moss, you can say as much as you want about how much you appreciate and are not concerned about your other corners. And I would agree to an extent, but when you're playing a guy like David Bell, a guy who will be an NFL draft pick, who will be a high NFL draft pick,

you need to get a bit more creative. And even some of the guys in the press conferences, Jack Kerner, for example, said they're changing things up a little bit for this game. So again, Iowa primarily plays that cover two zone defense. We can see them switch that up. We could see them have man coverage with Matt Hankins taking on David Bell. And I think that would actually put Iowa in an advantageous situation. You don't need to be a man coverage long if your line can get pressure on the quarterback, which they can. And also you don't need to worry about the quarterback scrambling, which allows the

linebackers a little bit more freedom to drop back a bit more and handle anything over the middle. So it'll be interesting to see what Iowa does from a game planning perspective on the defensive side of the football against Purdue's offense that is still good, but not nearly at the Purdue caliber level that we have seen the past couple years. Coming up, I want to talk a little bit about Purdue's defense because it is definitely improved. As we talked about yesterday, Jeff Braum took a look at Phil Parker's defense and he said, what can we do to be like this? They're

getting interceptions. They're traditionally a strong defense. Every year they're ranked in the top 15. What can Purdue do to get to that spot? And Purdue has improved. They're one of the best defenses to this point in terms of yardage allowed in the Big Ten. So we're going to talk about all that here in a second. I do want to tell you, though, about rockauto.com because with the ever-increasing numbers that makes the models,

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That was all what we talked about here on the first two segments. Let's get into the defensive side of the football, though. To this point, defensively, when you look at just the generic stats, Purdue is doing a great job. They are 13th in passing yards allowed per game at 175.2. They are 8th in completion percentage allowed at 52.14%. For reference, Iowa is 10th in that completion percentage allowed. Purdue is also

50th in rushing yards allowed per attempt at 3.8. So not great, but not bad for referencing in Iowa's 10th. And their defensive line is getting some pressure, 74 pressures through five games with nine sacks. That's important. To this point, when I've talked to some Purdue people, when I've done some research, Purdue, and when I've talked to some Purdue people when I've done some research Purdue and when I watch some games Purdue does a good job of putting pressure on the quarterback but they have not done a good job at finishing at the quarterback

which is surprising considering they have a potential first round draft pick on that defensive line in George Carl Aftis who has 18 pressures at this point but only 2 sacks so they do a good job of trying to get pressure, but they aren't getting the results they want. And unlike Iowa, who has not gotten a lot of sacks recently,

Iowa's pressure has converted them into takeaways. For example, when Sean Clifford threw that interception to Justin Jacobs early on in the game against Penn State, that was because he was getting pressure put on him. Threw the ball, Justin Jacobs got hit, Justin Jacobs hit the ball. Purdue has not seen that level of success to this point. 126th in takeaways per game, only two interceptions this season. And yes, they're not allowing very many yards per game, but when you look at the advanced analytics,

the advanced analytics tell a completely different story. They say that Purdue is 110th in coverage rating. Their cornerbacks, Dedrick Mackey, has a 56.7 grade in coverage. Jamari Brown has a 55.1 grade in coverage. Marvin Grant, their safety, has a 49.8 grade. And Cam Allen, their other safety, has a 42.4 grade. So they're not allowing a lot of yards, and their completion percentage is down.

But what these grades are telling us is that there are open opportunities. Teams just haven't had the opportunity to take advantage of yet. They haven't taken advantage of that opportunity is a better way of saying that. So there's going to be some of yet. They haven't taken advantage of that opportunity is a better way of saying that. So there's going to be some chances here. And what we've seen, you know, Purdue is doing a good job of stopping the run for the most part. They haven't gotten a lot of pressure, a lot of sacks on the quarterback, but they have gotten pressure.

And with a defensive end like George Karlaftis, despite the fact that he hasn't had a lot of time or hasn't gotten a lot of sacks, the pressures he is getting do concern me a little bit with Spencer Petras, especially going up against arguably the weaker part of our offensive line, the tackle spots. So I think Iowa is probably going to need to chip him a bit with some tight ends. I also expect Purdue, because they haven't gotten those sacks yet, to put a few more blitzes in their package this week. Penn State did that. Penn State blitzed a ton. And look what it did to Iowa.

Now, how you counteract blitzes is quick throws, quick targets, screen plays, that kind of stuff. Get the ball to guys quick when there's not a lot of guys out there defending our guys the ball. a lot of guys out there defending our guys the ball. So Purdue, I expect a lot more blitzes if they want to get pressure on Spencer Petras, if they want to get him uncomfortable, if they want to get sacks on him. But we haven't seen that a lot from Purdue to this point. Also, the one nice thing about blitzing, it does help in the running attack as well. It does help in the rush defense as well. And Purdue, what they've done in the past couple of years is selling out on the rushing attack. Just like Penn State did. Stop Iowa's running a game, make them throw the ball. We saw Maryland try that. Iowa torched them in the passing game. We saw Penn State try that and Iowa wasn't able to do much because Penn State has some very solid

wide receivers. So they had to stay consistent to that running attack. This could be a different game though. Purdue does not have the level of secondary play that Penn State does. I would wide receivers. So they had to stay consistent to that running attack. This could be a different game though. Purdue does not have the level of secondary play that Penn State does. I would equate Purdue more to what we saw from Maryland defensively, in my opinion. A solid team, a good team, but a team that is not capable of handling a team that could be multi-dimensional from a passing attack perspective and a running attack, and also is not going to be able to handle the physicality of the Iowa offensive line. Special teams-wise, they are a pretty solid special teams unit from a kicker perspective.

Mitchell Finneran is 9 of 10 on field goals, has a long of 48. Their punter, nothing like Torrey Taylor, though. Last in the Big Ten in average punting yards, third to last in net punting yards. They do have some solid return man, which is something to watch out for, especially with Torrey Taylor. In punt returns, C.J. Sheffield is fifth in the Big Ten in yards per return around seven to eight.

So be on the lookout for that with Torrey Taylor. We're going to need him in this game to ensure field position is an advantage for the Iowa Hawkeyes. And we mentioned this a couple times, but health is going to be something to watch out for for Purdue. They're missing several guys. So if we get any other updates, we health is going to be something to watch out for for Purdue. They're missing several guys. So if we get any other updates, we'll make sure to cover that as well.

But coming up on tomorrow's show, we're going to be breaking down what all this means. What is the game plan for Iowa, right? Is Purdue going to come out attacking? Which quarterback are they going to have? And how does Iowa defend either of those quarterbacks? What are some additional strategies to stop David Bell? And what are the keys to winning this game? And ultimately, I'll be giving you my predictions. I am going to be predicting a win.

I don't know if I'm going to be predicting Iowa to cover the spread, though. The spread right now is at 11 and a half. So be on the lookout for that. I just don't feel comfortable covering that spread to this point. But we'll see how I feel when I give you this breakdown on tomorrow's show. Again, thank you all for tuning in to another episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast. If you want more Locked On content, definitely check out the Locked On Big Ten podcast hosted by Nate Dickinson as he breaks down all the storylines across the Big Ten with a lot of guest hosts from all of our Big Ten sister shows.

Thank you all for tuning in. Have a fantastic Thursday, and I will talk to you all tomorrow. And as always, let's go Hawks.